TPMDC
Young Voters' Approval Of Obama Historically High -- Can Dems Keep Them?
President Barack Obama
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A new analysis from Gallup finds that as President Obama's ratings have gone up and down, one constant has remained: A sharply disproportionate level of support among younger voters, with an age gap that simply didn't happen with his two predecessors.
Gallup's data was compiled by analyzing the average approval ratings for Bill Clinton and George W. Bush during their administrations, and comparing these numbers to the Obama administration so far. The numbers were broken down among four age groups: 18-29, 30-49, 50-64, and 65+.
Bill Clinton's numbers actually showed no great variation, with a high of 57% among the 18-29 group, and 54% among the 50-64 cohort. George W. Bush showed some slight variation, with a low of 46% among the 18-29 group and a high of 52% with the 30-49 group.
Among Obama, though, the high is 66% among the 18-29 group, with a low of 51% among the 65+ group.
"We've always known that young people are more likely to identify as Democrats than Republicans, and that's been the case for while," Gallup managing editor Jeffrey M. Jones explained to TPMDC. "But you would expect to see more variation for the prior two presidents among the age groups than you do. So the relationship of being younger has been more Democratic, but we haven't had this variation for past presidents."
It's still unclear, though, whether this would be indicative of a longer-run trend of the current 18-29 cohort being solidly Democratic, or if it simply a matter of Obama's own appeal. "When he's gone, and the next president is in, we can establish a pattern there. It's still premature, but my own feeling is this is something specific to Obama," Jones explained, citing Obama's strong support among younger voters during the Democratic primaries, and the way he would consistently score better than Hillary Clinton among this group in general election polls against John McCain, while Clinton performed better than Obama among older voters.
"I think part of it might depend on how Obama does in office," said Jones. "If he does very well then I can definitely see people of this generation becoming solidly Democrats, because they'll not only have a figure that they like but, he'll have proven to be successful. But if he doesn't prove to be successful, maybe their hopes are dashed and they start to view Obama and the Democratic Party as being not very effective at trying to achieve the types of things that they would like to see the government do."
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FreeRider
March 5, 2010 12:08 PM
Just yesterday some firebagger was saying how betrayed the young voters feel about Obama.
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Viva!America!
March 5, 2010 12:20 PM in reply to FreeRider
I've seen articles (didn't read them)where the title claimed Obama was losing young voters so I can see where he got that from.
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lousgirl84
March 5, 2010 12:51 PM in reply to FreeRider
Hey FreeRider. I got my butt reamed for saying this. Xargaw from Oregon complained all of her young progressive friends were betrayed by Obama.
That's not my experience. Typical medial driven bullshit parroting the repubublican talking points.
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JEP07
March 5, 2010 12:58 PM in reply to lousgirl84
Sorry I missed it, LG, I'd have helped you out if I had been around... But, we all need to stop calling 21 year olds "kids", they graduated to adults already.
And they apparently have more sense than many adults.
Why do you all suppose the right is so desperate right now?
Their end is near. Unless they find a way to ga back 10 years and reprogram all the people who are up and coming, they are headed for the dust bin of history, along with the Know Nothings.
All they have left is their ever-shrinking Palin lovin' base, everyone else is embarrassed to call themselves Republicans in any public venue where there are non-Republicans.
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JEP07
March 5, 2010 1:01 PM in reply to JEP07
Has anyone heard any Obama supporting young people complaining? There may be some fakes now crying foul, but he's just getting more and more endeared to the younger generation, it is a real conundrum for the right. The more they lie to their old base, the more the youngsters hate them for their lies.
Caught between Iraq and a hard place?
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JEP07
March 5, 2010 1:09 PM in reply to JEP07
...all this talk about influences that molded the young minds of toway, these new voters, lest we forget they grew up during our first ever pre-emptive wa.
Andd lo and behold, the war in Iraq is still with us. There is no more aware group than our young people about that scam-of-scams.
THEY weren't fooled by the WMD lies, does the right just expect them to forget that basic truth? Sometimes I think the political experts have their heads permanently buried up their own....
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lousgirl84
March 5, 2010 5:25 PM in reply to JEP07
Co-signed on all your posts. We agree.
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JNagarya
March 8, 2010 12:59 AM in reply to JEP07
I have a Republican friend -- well, he is independent now, and so pissed that he says he'll never vote for a Republican again for the rest of his life -- who says that the more he sees of President Obama, the more he likes him.
He is personable and likeable -- and obviously intellegent and intellectually honest -- so that figures in the high poll numbers.
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Joekuh
March 8, 2010 9:25 AM in reply to JEP07
Iraq and a hard place. Brilliant!
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FreeRider
March 5, 2010 1:06 PM in reply to lousgirl84
That's who it was!! The people who come here to complain about Obama work hard to convince us that everyone is turning against him.
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AhTrini1
March 7, 2010 8:12 AM in reply to FreeRider
I heard that; you know say it often enough and loud enough and it might become true teabaggers.
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Walter Mitty
March 5, 2010 12:10 PM
The 18-29 crowd had their political awakening during the Clinton/Lewinsky debacle and the Bush Administration. With those comparables, Obama should be disappointed with his current polling numbers.
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CT Voter
March 5, 2010 12:14 PM in reply to Walter Mitty
With those comparables, Obama should be disappointed with his current polling numbers.
Jesus Christ.
You're ridiculous at times.
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lousgirl84
March 5, 2010 12:52 PM in reply to CT Voter
At times. He's ridiculous most of the time .
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CT Voter
March 5, 2010 12:16 PM in reply to Walter Mitty
And your statement about the 18 - 29 crowd having a "political awakening" during the Clinton/Lewinsky debacle is absurd. A 21 year old had a "political awakening" when they were 9?
Um, sure.
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SFCWallace
March 5, 2010 12:22 PM in reply to CT Voter
True...I didn't have mine until 76, we had a mock election in Jr. High...I voted for Ford.
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Schmed
March 5, 2010 12:32 PM in reply to SFCWallace
"Political awakening" > brain washing. Anyone voluntarily voting for Ford needs a cerebral CAT scan.
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Schmed
March 5, 2010 12:43 PM in reply to Schmed
">" should be "≠"
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mans_best_friend
March 5, 2010 1:27 PM in reply to SFCWallace
76 is pretty old to have a political awakening. It's also pretty old to be in Jr. High. But I guess that explains a lot.
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JNagarya
March 8, 2010 1:10 AM in reply to mans_best_friend
You think that's old!? He had a senile father who instructed him that, "When a president does it, it's not illegal -- unless the president is a Democart."
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Walter Mitty
March 5, 2010 12:25 PM in reply to CT Voter
What about the other end of the spectrum, you know the 29yr olds in the 18-29 yr old bracket? Maybe that's why I mentioned the end of the Clinton years - you're just being obtuse.
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CT Voter
March 5, 2010 12:31 PM in reply to Walter Mitty
I'm being obtuse? Hilarious. Maybe a 29 year old, a 28 year old, a 27 year old, a 26 year old had a "political awakening" during the Clinton/Lewinsky situation, but not people between 18 and 25.
You make a stupid statement about how these numbers aren't as good as they should be and you got called on it. Nothing "obtuse" about it.
Being a contrarian doesn't mean you're thinking critically, Jonze.
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SFCWallace
March 5, 2010 12:38 PM in reply to CT Voter
"Being a contrarian doesn't mean you're thinking critically..."
It does for me! How've you been CT? Long time no discuss the Constitutional ramifications of eliminating the fillibuster rule...
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CT Voter
March 5, 2010 12:43 PM in reply to SFCWallace
I'm eagerly looking forward to spring.
I don't think the filibuster should be gotten rid of. I think if someone wants to filibuster they should have to, you know, actually filibuster. No need to eliminate it.
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AhTrini1
March 7, 2010 8:23 AM in reply to SFCWallace
Amen, the fillerbuster IS NOT mentioned in the Constitution!
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JNagarya
March 14, 2010 12:04 PM in reply to AhTrini1
So? Neither is "separation of church and state".
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holyhandgrenaid
March 5, 2010 12:49 PM in reply to CT Voter
I'm 25, didn't qualify for a presidential election until 2004, didn't wake up until 2006 (although I did vote in 2004) Wallace and Walt are being pretty out there.
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JNagarya
March 8, 2010 1:13 AM in reply to CT Voter
My first political awakening -- there have been several -- occurred when I was in elementary school, roughly 8-10 years old.
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CT Voter
March 9, 2010 3:14 PM in reply to JNagarya
With all due respect, I don't think you're a typical voter, and I don't think anyone who posts here regularly is.
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Jim H
March 5, 2010 1:13 PM in reply to CT Voter
No, I think he's right. Didn't every parent discuss with their children at length the intimate details of the affair? Weren't children of all ages glued to the evening news feeling confused and upset that their President could do such a thing?
Remember all the "how do we explain this to our children?" hysteria in the media?
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arias
March 7, 2010 12:22 AM in reply to Jim H
Yeah, but then Clinton proved to be a competent and popular president in spite of the Lewinsky scandal and the republicans persecuting him turned out to be utter hypocrites with their own interns and scandalous affairs on the side. So the children that the talking heads were so worried about explaining things to were able to see for themselves the hypocrisy of it all and recognize the whole Lewinsky thing was a cheap political ploy that had nothing to do with Clinton's competence at his job.
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rabbit
March 7, 2010 12:25 PM in reply to CT Voter
I teach 18-22 yr olds and made a joke in class recently about power going hand in hand (so to speak) with exuberant sexual appetite...from the Renaissance to Clinton. Everybody laughed, and only later did it occur to me that the reference might have escaped them entirely...but didn't. I recall that I was in preschool during Watergate, but it still shaped my political awareness as a teenager and beyond.
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JNagarya
March 8, 2010 1:08 AM in reply to CT Voter
I've had more than one political wakening.
My first was when I first learned of Abraham Lincoln and his, "Everybody equal before the law," in elementary school. I was 8-10 at the time. At the same time I became a civil rights activist. (My first live hero -- who came a bit later -- was an outspoken guy named Cassius Clay.)
My second was when I was 12, when JFK ran for president.
My third was in May, 1965, when I read Mark Twain's Adventures of Huckleberry Finn. By the turn of that year my pacifism had crystalized.
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FreeRider
March 5, 2010 12:18 PM in reply to Walter Mitty
Sometimes you outdo yourself with stupidity--and that's hard.
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The Commenter Formerly Known as NCSteve
March 5, 2010 12:22 PM in reply to Walter Mitty
I cannot for the life of me understand what you mean. And in any case I don't know what kind of a dark universe of gloom you must live in to find a downside attached to 66%.
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The Commenter Formerly Known as NCSteve
March 5, 2010 12:23 PM in reply to The Commenter Formerly Known as NCSteve
But I do love the new avatar. That's hilariously cool of you.
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SFCWallace
March 5, 2010 12:25 PM in reply to The Commenter Formerly Known as NCSteve
"... don't know what kind of a dark universe of gloom you must live in to find a downside attached to 66%."
Unless they rounded down, and it was really 66.6%...the mark of the beast!
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CT Voter
March 5, 2010 12:35 PM in reply to SFCWallace
Hah! The left-leaning liberal Gallup organization probably did round down, just to protect the anti-Christ.
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SFCWallace
March 5, 2010 12:40 PM in reply to CT Voter
See! It's not just me that sees the signs of the impending apocolypse!
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Michael A
March 5, 2010 1:44 PM in reply to SFCWallace
Ahhh, the rapture. It's a shame Rambo isn't president right now, as mcbush would never have made it through the first year. She could hit the button and wipe out the human race. Then only those who are "saved" would rule the world. Damn. Too bad.
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we r all husseins
March 7, 2010 3:36 PM in reply to SFCWallace
Sorry. I just checked the Book of Revelations and it doesn't mention a decimal point.
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AhTrini1
March 7, 2010 8:21 AM in reply to Walter Mitty
66% is disappointing in the alternate universe you all occupy.
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The Commenter Formerly Known as NCSteve
March 5, 2010 12:25 PM
But having taken Eeyore to task, my question isn't whether "Democrats can keep them." My question is whether we can get their young asses out to the polls in 2010. Pretty much all history says Hell, no!" But then, history also said they wouldn't turn out the way they did in 2008.
That's my question. Would have been nice if Gallup had freaking asked it.
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CT Voter
March 5, 2010 12:34 PM in reply to The Commenter Formerly Known as NCSteve
I can still hear Cokie Roberts saying the young people would be too tired to vote in November.
I have since stopped listening to NPR on Monday mornings.
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FreeRider
March 5, 2010 12:42 PM in reply to CT Voter
She said that???? No shit??? Cokie Roberts is a useless old bag who phones in her Monday morning political commentary while she's still in bed. She never has anything interesting, relevant or CORRECT to say.
What a waste of oxygen.
I going to start my campaign to get her ass booted from NPR--as soon as I succeed in getting Juan Williams off the air!
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Schmed
March 5, 2010 12:46 PM in reply to FreeRider
Wow! Lightning does strike twice! 2nd time this year that I agree with you (esp. on Williams).
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FreeRider
March 5, 2010 1:00 PM in reply to Schmed
Dude, you and I probably agree a lot--on ideology. Where we differ is method and our belief in what is possible.
I will match my liberal credentials with anyone here but I am also a realist and I think many of the people here don't have a fucking clue about how hard it is to do ANYTHING in DC.
Those same people believe "change" was a governing platform instead of a slogan. Those same people think that a president who disappoints them 20% of the time is the same as a president who disappoints them 100% of the time. Those same people thumb their noses at covering 31 million more people. I find those same people as abhorrent and ridiculous as the teabaggers.
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AhTrini1
March 7, 2010 8:33 AM in reply to FreeRider
My issue is that these same "you democratic voters" don't see how they are complicit in depressing the votes that allowed NJ, VA & MA. I just want to jump through the television screen and beat down their dumb asses when I hear them talking about voting for republicans because "nothing is getting done in DC". How fucking dumb can people be?!?!??!?!
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CT Voter
March 5, 2010 12:49 PM in reply to FreeRider
Young voters also triumphed over the condescension of the experts. “Are they going to show up?” Cokie Roberts of ABC News asked in February. “Probably not. They never have before. By the time November comes, they’ll be tired.”
Quoted in Frank Rich's column
Haven't been able to find audio of it.
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FreeRider
March 5, 2010 1:22 PM in reply to CT Voter
Thanks! She should have been fired from ABC & NPR for that piece of absurdity.
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lousgirl84
March 5, 2010 12:54 PM in reply to FreeRider
Go get em - my friend!!!
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Brownbagger
March 8, 2010 9:38 AM in reply to FreeRider
And you have to love how she opens her tired ramblings with that all-knowing little hen cackle. Cokie, no one thinks your are cute. Please just go away.
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Schmed
March 5, 2010 12:37 PM in reply to The Commenter Formerly Known as NCSteve
I think the other unasked question is "do these young voters have realistic/any expectations that Obama will deliver on his campaign promises?" Because if they do, I'd like to know on which of these promises they're basing their optimism.
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mans_best_friend
March 5, 2010 1:31 PM in reply to Schmed
Maybe the other question to be asked is which of them are so idiotic that they believed they were voting for king who could just "deliver on his campaign promises" without having to depend on a fractious, dysfunctional Congress to do the work.
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Schmed
March 5, 2010 1:40 PM in reply to mans_best_friend
Possibly some of them were naive enough to believe that not all politicians lie and that they were voting for one such who maintained that "if the people cannot trust their government to do the job for which it exists - to protect them and to promote their common welfare - all else is lost"; that "we can't change the way Washington works unless we first change how Congress works"; and finally, "It's not just enough to change the players. We've gotta change the game." Yeah, I guess there were some idiots who swallowed that crap without blinking.
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JNagarya
March 8, 2010 1:21 AM in reply to Schmed
Voting for worthy ideals for which to strive is stupid?
All politicians lie? No, they do not. They do tend to realize that they have more than one -- you -- constituent, so tend to speak also to interests about which you don't give a fuck, but others do.
You know what's stupid? Assholes who want it all right now -- but will burn down the whole house for everyone else if they don't get it.
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Dorn76
March 5, 2010 1:58 PM in reply to mans_best_friend
I'd like to ask that same question of many on the Left who are apoplectic that the Emperor Obama has not decreed everything from the Public Option to Ponies.
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mans_best_friend
March 5, 2010 4:09 PM in reply to Dorn76
Alas, we live in an age where instant gratification in expected. You mean he's been president for a year and we don't have free health care, free public transportation, free concerts, free internet, etc., etc., etc. And why does the microwave take so looooong?
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ohyeathatsright
March 5, 2010 8:01 PM in reply to mans_best_friend
Hope is a helluva drug.
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JNagarya
March 8, 2010 1:22 AM in reply to ohyeathatsright
Hope is akin to aspiration. It is only a drug to those who mistake fasionable cynicism for maturity.
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mike from Arlington
March 5, 2010 12:27 PM
It's been a while since there's been a President that could connect genuinely with the younger generation.
Not surprised.
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CT Voter
March 5, 2010 12:32 PM
Actually, what's interesting about these numbers if that the approval rating for Obama among older voters is higher than it was for Bush.
How come that's not mentioned among all the "Obama ratings in a slide!@#!!!!"
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Barry Champlain
March 5, 2010 12:45 PM
All I know is, unless there's a deadly plague in two years, which wipes out everyone currently under the age of, um, 49 or something... the crowing I keep hearing about a "one-term President" sounds an awful lot like lame-ass GOP spin, right about now.
(Which, of course, is why whenever I hear this meme coming out of the keyboard of a pundit who, ostensibly, is not a GOP spokeswhore... my BS alarm starts emitting smoke.)
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lousgirl84
March 5, 2010 12:49 PM
I got my butt reamed yesterday for having this conversation with xargaw. And of course all the Obama haters chimed in.
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stanjz
March 5, 2010 12:55 PM
Pretend progressive, Cenk Uygur, sticking up for corporations http://www.huffingtonpost.com/cenk-uygur/corporatists-vs-capitalis_b_288718.html
Pretend progressive website, Daily Kos, stoking flames with IRAN Contrary to the advertisement banner at the top of the frontpage, Iran is not threatening the US http://www.dailykos.com/story/2010/3/5/843202/-The-DKos-Website-Skin-is-Misleading-and-Wrong.
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lousgirl84
March 5, 2010 12:56 PM
Well I'm not "young" and I am "high" on Obama, as you all know.
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Viva!America!
March 5, 2010 1:15 PM in reply to lousgirl84
Express yourself girl! Shout it from the rooftops! Don't let the haters get to you. It's OK when they go on and on about their heroes, citing their blog or quotes in every one of their posts and yet they pounce on you when you express the same admiration for the president.
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FreeRider
March 5, 2010 1:30 PM in reply to Viva!America!
True dat. Lousgirl & I are mocked for supporting the president by people who drool over folks like Hamsher, Schultz, Huffington and Krugman who haven't done a damn thing but whine!
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lousgirl84
March 5, 2010 2:10 PM in reply to FreeRider
Yayyy...
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Michael A
March 5, 2010 1:31 PM
Well, those are awesome numbers. Really awesome. They said that young people during the 80's became repukes due to the b-movie actor's bullshit and remained repukes. That would put them about in the 30-49 range for the king's approval at 52% among that age group?????? Which is disturbing in and of itself.
66% repukes could be in the minority, big time, for a freaking generation. That is an awesome number.
Also, I agree with the kooky roberts observations. She should be put out to pasture. Total buffoon and was wrong on every level during the last election. She was a major PUMA and it was obvious.
Finally, I heard obama's speech this morning. Awesome speech. It is so refreshing to have a president who is smart, doesn't pander and can speak in complete sentences. Amazing.
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lousgirl84
March 5, 2010 2:15 PM in reply to Michael A
Co-sign. I think we are lucky to have such a brilliant, decent man with such integrity and who puts his fricking life on the line every day I might add, to serve his country. He could have done anything with his life he had so many opportunities and didn't need to do this to get his head kicked in everyday, while he tries to change the tenor and tone and do something positive.
I don't get how folks are so down on him in just a short year. It just makes no sense to me. Sure he's had to make some tough decisions which we don't like and I am sure he didn't like having to make them either but it's a bad world out there.
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Michael A
March 5, 2010 2:39 PM in reply to lousgirl84
Co-sign your co-sign. You said it so much better by the way.
Also, by the way, I still cannot believe his intelligence and his ability to give an awesome speech. It really is amazing. In my life time, I have never experienced a President like this. I hear his speech and I really get fired up and ready to go. I like his lines as well. I like the optomism. I was sooooooooo sick of the fear, fear, fear crap from the king. I actually feel better about my misery after I hear one of his speeches. It's like FDR in the 30's. We really are lucky to have him as President at this awful time in our history.
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lousgirl84
March 5, 2010 3:35 PM in reply to Michael A
I hear ya. Me too. We are lucky to have him.
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Dorn76
March 5, 2010 1:32 PM
I'm glad young people maintain a sense of optimism about the President. Will they come out to vote for anyone but him, though?
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Joshua the Teacher
March 5, 2010 3:42 PM
I wonder how much we have Jon Stewart to thank for keeping the 18-29 crowd aware of how loony and unhinged the right is.
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IndyLinda
March 5, 2010 6:32 PM in reply to Joshua the Teacher
If my nieces are anything to judge by, he and Colbert are almost entirely responsible for their disdain for the right.
And if I said you have a great avatar, would you hold it against me?
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we r all husseins
March 7, 2010 3:51 PM in reply to IndyLinda
LOL! And not to forget the classic:
"If you want to leave now, you can leave in a taxi. If you can't
wait for a taxi, you can leave in a huff. If a huff's too soon, you can leave in a minute and a huff. You know you haven't stopped talking since I got here, you must've been vaccinated with a phonograph needle."
OMG! I can't believe I still have that memorized!
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Brownbagger
March 8, 2010 9:13 AM in reply to we r all husseins
I once shot an elephant in my pajamas, how he got in my pajamas I'll never know.
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Leftflank
March 7, 2010 6:30 PM
The young in the political process are pretty good with Obama too. The neo-con project called the bush administration & all the disasters that came from it initiated & inspired many to get busy & to appreciate the differences. Despite all of the Obama bashing going on because of health care not yet fixed & continuing BUSH policies that were created with no easy end in sight, there is a whole lot of good going on & in the works. Just check the charts & look at who's against him for starters.
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