The new Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll of the Hawaii First District special election finds that Republican Honolulu councilman Charles Djou could potentially win the race, thanks to a three-way dead heat and a big problem of Democrats splitting the vote under this state’s unique special election process.
The numbers: Djou 32%, former Rep. Ed Case 29%, state Senate President Colleen Hanabusa 28%, a three-way dead heat within the ±5% margin of error. Keep in mind that Barack Obama won this district in 2008 with 70% of the vote.
Hawaii special elections for the House do not function according to the usual rules in other states, where candidates either compete in separate party primaries, or the parties select their candidates through an internal party committee process. Instead, a single-round election is held in which all the candidates appear together on one ballot, and the plurality-winner takes the whole thing. The election will be conducted entirely by mail, and will end on May 22.
This split-vote situation puts Dems in a bind — the party cannot be seen to be officially backing a single candidate, but for now is instead aiming its fire at Djou in a recent TV ad.
It has been widely reported that the DCCC is unofficially backing Case, who enters the race with very high name recognition from unsuccessful but very close Democratic primary campaigns for governor in 2002 and a 2006 primary challenge against incumbent Sen. Daniel Akaka. Meanwhile, the state Democratic establishment — as embodied by Akaka and Hawaii’s senior Senator Daniel Inouye — are backing Hanabusa. Labor unions have been backing Hanabusa and attacking Case.
In his analysis of the poll, Kos points to a silver lining if Djou were to sneak in: “Whoever wins this election will still face reelection in November, so even if Djou wins this overwhelmingly Democratic district, he’d be renting the seat for a few months at best. Republicans want to win this for propaganda purposes, not because it necessarily gets them closer to a majority.”
Late Update: When asked what the DCCC would do about the vote-splitting problem, DCCC western regional press secretary Andy Stone gave us this comment: “Our focus is on making sure Hawaii voters know about Charles Djou’s record of supporting corporate special interests over the interests of families in Hawaii - like Djou’s efforts to eliminate taxes on big insurance companies and his opposition to tax cuts for the middle class.”
Eric Kleefeld
Eric Kleefeld joined TPM as an intern for the final months of the 2006 midterm elections, and then kept showing up for work. His other interests include guitars, old comic books and the politics of various English-speaking countries.
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