With the clocking ticking down on the Pennsylvania Democratic Senate primary, a new poll shows Sen. Arlen Specter and Rep. Joe Sestak is a dead heat. The poll appears to be an outlier, but it suggests Specter’s lead is shrinking in advance of the May 18 primary.
The poll, from Rasmussen, shows Specter ahead by a margin of 44-42. The lead is well within the poll’s 5% margin of error.
The poll is well outside the lines of existing polling in the race, which has shown Specter ahead by a comfortable margin. Even with the new Rasmussen poll added in the TPM Poll Average for the race shows Specter ahead of Sestak by a margin of 45.3-30.8.
Past Rasmussen polling of the race has shown Sestak tightening things up as the race has gone on. A Feb. 15 Rasmussen poll showed Specter ahead 51-36, while another poll from the firm month showed the race had tightened up a bit, with Specter ahead by a margin of 48-37.
Both men trail presumptive GOP nominee Pat Toomey. The TPM Poll Average for a Specter-Toomey race shows Toomey ahead by a margin of 43.6-39.7. When matched up against Sestak, the TPM Poll Average shows Toomey ahead by a margin of 37.3-30.0.
Evan McMorris-Santoro
Evan McMorris-Santoro has covered politics for TPM since 2009. Before that, he was a reporter at National Journal’s Hotline covering election 2008. He started his career covering local politics at newspapers in TN and his native NC.
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