A new set of numbers from Public Policy Polling (D) finds a sharp indication of how Democratic fortunes have been declining: In the state of New Hampshire, where the party dramatically picked up both House seats and made other huge gains in 2006 and 2008, both seats could very well slip away this time around.
The First District is held by Democratic Rep. Carol Shea-Porter, who defeated incumbent Republican Jeb Bradley in 2006 and is seeking her third term this year. The Second District is currently held by Democratic Rep. Paul Hodes, who defeated incumbent Republican Charlie Bass in 2006 and is now vacating the seat in order to run for Senate. Both seats could potentially go to the Republicans.
“In the Democratic wave year of 2006 New Hampshire’s Republican house delegation was wiped out,” writes PPP president Dean Debnam. “2010 looks like it may be a GOP wave year, and the Democrats could face the same fate.”
In the First District, where the Republicans have recruited Manchester Mayor Frank Guinta to run against Shea-Porter, Guinta edges out Shea-Porter among registered voters by a margin of 46%-45%, within the ±3.9% margin of error. Shea-Porter’s approval rating is only 41%, with 50% disapproval. President Obama’s approval rating is 45%-49%, and respondents disapprove of the health care bill by a margin of 52%-42%. (Shea-Porter voted for the bill, as did Hodes.)
In the Second District, where GOP former Rep. Charlie Bass is seeking a comeback, Bass was tested against the most well-known Democratic candidate, Katrina Swett, who previously ran for the seat in 2002 and is also the wife of former Rep. Dick Swett. Bass leads Swett among registered voters by a margin of 47%-32%, with a ±3.4% margin of error. President Obama’s approval rating is 48%-48%, and the health care bill is opposed by a margin of 49%-43%.
New Hampshire had long been the Republicans’ New England stronghold, with a solid lock on the state’s Congressional delegation. That changed in 2006, and then in 2008 when Democrat Jeanne Shaheen defeated Republican Sen. John Sununu. But that trend toward the Democrats could potentially be turning the other way, at least for this year — in addition to the House polls, the TPM Poll Average for the Senate race shows Hodes trailing the frontrunner for the Republican nomination, former state Attorney General Kelly Ayotte, by a margin of 48.3%-37.6%.
Eric Kleefeld
Eric Kleefeld joined TPM as an intern for the final months of the 2006 midterm elections, and then kept showing up for work. His other interests include guitars, old comic books and the politics of various English-speaking countries.
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