AR-SEN

Blanche's Moment Of Truth: Arkansas Runoff Will Be 'Very Close'

Christina Bellantoni | June 4, 2010, 6:40PM

AR Sen. candidates Blanche Lincoln (D) and Bill Halter (D)

It's down to the final stretch for Sen. Blanche Lincoln and Lt. Gov. Bill Halter, who each are predicting a victory in Tuesday's Democratic primary runoff election. But of course, only one Arkansas candidate can prevail, and incumbents aren't doing so well this season.

Lincoln and Halter are criss-crossing the state in hopes of enticing voters who were almost evenly divided between the two during the May 18 primary that they should head to the polls a second time in the election that really counts. Team Halter spun his 43 percent second place finish to her 45 percent as a victory since the incumbent senator wasn't able to hold more than 50 percent of the vote to avoid a runoff.

It's tough to know if the three polls taken since the election -- all conducted by the same pollster -- showing Halter in the lead are accurate, but progressives and union activists who support Halter say the momentum is on his side. Political consultants not willing to speak on the record think Halter has a shot, but hedge their bets since Lincoln has a strong early voting program that could put her over the top.

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WA-SEN

Dino Rossi Raising Online Cash At A Halter-Like Pace In WA SEN

Evan McMorris-Santoro | June 4, 2010, 6:22PM

US Senate candidate Dino Rossi (R-WA)

Republicans said it would be bad news for the otherwise-safe Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA) if former gubernatorial candidate Dino Rossi decided to run against her. So far, they seem to be right, and more so than observers expected.

Yesterday, his campaign announced Rossi raised over $600,000 in his first week as a candidate -- a third of it from grassroots supporters online. He's signed 2,500 people to his campaign list in the first week, and attracted 20,000 followers to his Facebook page (which his campaign says is the "third most of any US Senate candidate and nearly twice that of Senator Murray.")

Republicans in Washington, it seems, are happy to see Rossi after all.

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FL-GOV

Crist's New Media Team Has Dem-Heavy Résumé

Eric Kleefeld | June 4, 2010, 5:58PM

Gov. Charlie Crist (I-FL)

Gov. Charlie Crist (I-FL), who left the Republican Party to run for Senate as an independent, announced today that he has a new media consultant -- one with a long history of working for Democrats, and for Joe Lieberman and Mike Bloomberg, too.

Crist's campaign has signed up the firm of SKD Knickerbocker, with co-founder Josh Isay becoming Crist's lead media consultant. From the Crist campaign's press release: "SKD Knickerbocker is one of the nation's leading political consulting firms. Clients have included Democratic Senators, Governors and Mayors from across the country. The firm is also a leader in electing Independent candidates including Senator Joe Lieberman and NYC Mayor Mike Bloomberg. SKD Knickerbocker has worked on the campaigns of the last 4 Democratic Presidential nominees."

Roll Call points out that Isay is also a former chief of staff to Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY), and the St. Petersburg Times lists other clients including Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH), Sen. Evan Bayh (D-IN), Sen. Jim Webb (D-VA) and Sen. Jay Rockefeller (D-WV).

Sunday Shows

The Sunday Show Line-Ups

Eric Kleefeld | June 4, 2010, 4:50PM

U.S. Coast Guard Adm. Thad Allen, National Incident Commander

Here are the line-ups for the Sunday talk shows this weekend:

• ABC, This Week: Adm. Thad Allen, Sen. John Kerry (D-MA), Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX).

• CBS, Face The Nation: Adm. Thad Allen, Sen. Bill Nelson (D-FL).

• CNN, State Of The Union: Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Admiral Mike Mullen, Sen. Jim Webb (D-VA), Sen. David Vitter (R-LA).

• Fox News Sunday: Adm. Thad Allen, Gov. Haley Barbour (R-MS), Israeli Ambassador to the United States Michael Oren.

• NBC, Meet The Press: Will not air, due to coverage of the French Open.

AR-SEN

Poll: Halter Up By Four In AR-SEN Dem Runoff

Eric Kleefeld | June 4, 2010, 1:48PM

Arkansas Lt. Governor Bill Halter (D)

The new Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll of the Arkansas Senate Democratic primary runoff gives Lt. Gov. Bill Halter a four-point lead over incumbent Sen. Blanche Lincoln, heading into the big showdown this Tuesday, June 8.

The numbers: Halter 49%, Lincoln 45%. The poll of likely Dem primary voters has a ±4% margin of error. The TPM Poll Average gives Halter a lead of 49.7%-44.9%. However, there is a huge caveat: Research 2000 has been the only pollster to publicly release numbers on this race during the runoff period, so we are dependent on only one source of data.

Daily Kos's Jed Lewison writes: "With the run-off coming up this Tuesday (June 8) and voting preferences pretty much settled, it seems like the biggest question is whether Halter or Lincoln will have a better turnout operation. Much of that depends on the enthusiasm of each candidate's supporters, and if Joe Sestak's campaign in Pennsylvania is any indication, Bill Halter is in pretty good shape -- as long as his supporters demonstrate their enthusiasm at the ballot box."

Mark Kirk

Kirk Apologizes For Mischaracterizing His Military Record

Brian Beutler | June 4, 2010, 1:40PM

Rep. Mark Kirk (R-IL)

Senate hopeful Mark Kirk has gone the full Blumenthal and apologized for misrepresenting his military record.

"I simply misremembered it wrong," Kirk said in a long sit-down interview with the Chicago Sun-Times. "I want to be very contrite and say that there was a casualness with which I sometimes describe military details and if it gave the impression that my military record was larger than it was, I apologize."

Kirk took responsibility for various misstatements--both spoken and written--all of which either overstated his role or were outright false. In particular he apologized for claiming to have been named Navy Intelligence Officer of the Year when in fact he was not. Previously Kirk had acknowledged several errors but has only in the last day officially apologized for them. You can watch the entire interview below.

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Supreme Court vacancy

Clinton Library Releases Thousands Of Kagan Documents

Christina Bellantoni | June 4, 2010, 1:18PM

Clinton-era Elena Kagan

The Clinton Library this afternoon released thousands of documents related to Supreme Court nominee Elena Kagan's service on President Clinton's Domestic Policy Council in the 1990s, including memos related to hot-button issues of abortion and gays serving in the military.

Members of the Senate Judiciary Committee have requested more information given that Kagan, currently the solicitor general of the United States, has no judicial record. She was dean of the Harvard Law School until she took the current job in the Obama administration. Her confirmation hearings begin June 28.

The documents can be found here.

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CA-GOV

Poll: Whitman Crushing Poizner In CA-GOV

Evan McMorris-Santoro | June 4, 2010, 10:32AM

California gubernatiorial candidate Meg Whitman (R-CA)

Heading into the final weekend of the California Republican gubernatorial primary, everything is coming up Meg Whitman. The new Field Poll in California (one of the state's longest running) shows Whitman cruising past Steve Poizner with a 2-1 lead.

The poll shows Whitman ahead by a margin of 51-25, just another in a string of big leads that public pollsters have reported for her in the final days of the race toward the June 8 primary. Concerns among some Republicans -- and excitement among Democrats -- that Poizner could pull off an upset after polls showed him closing the gap with Whitman several weeks ago appear to be unfounded.

The TPM Poll Average for the race shows Whitman ahead by a margin of 48.4-28.3.

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SC-GOV

SC Gov Candidate McMaster: This Race Is 'Embarrassing'

Ben Frumin | June 4, 2010, 9:31AM

South Carolina Attorney General Henry McMaster (R)

It's been a wild ride the last couple weeks in South Carolina's Republican gubernatorial primary. And at least one candidate says it's "been embarrassing."

"The behavior of my opponents, their campaigns and their supporters over the last few weeks has not served our state well," Attorney General Henry McMaster said in a statement. "In fact, it's been embarrassing."

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AR-SEN

Bill Clinton In Blanche Lincoln Ad: Unions 'Using You And Manipulating Your Votes' (VIDEO)

Eric Kleefeld | June 4, 2010, 9:31AM

Former President Bill Clinton and Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR)

Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) has a new ad featuring former President Bill Clinton, her state's former governor and favorite son, attacking the national labor unions for going after her in the contested Democratic primary runoff.

The ad uses footage of Bill at a rally for Lincoln last week. Bill is shown pointing out a newspaper article to the audience. "Here is an article from the Washington Post, it says some national unions made a decision a few months ago that they wanted to make Senator Blanche Lincoln the quote 'poster child' for what happens when a Democrat crosses them," Bill says, then adding after a quick cut: "This is about using you and manipulating your votes...If you want to be Arkansas's advocate, vote for somebody who will fight for you. Vote for Blanche Lincoln."

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Oil Spill

What Could Make The Gulf Oil Spill Worse? How About a Hurricane.

Brian Beutler | June 4, 2010, 8:36AM

Hurricane Katrina over the Gulf of Mexico

As if the situation in the Gulf wasn't bad enough already, we are now in hurricane season, and that means there's a decent chance that a tropical cyclone may complicate the cleanup efforts along the southern U.S. coast and disrupt effort to bring the blowout at the site of the sunken Deepwater Horizon under control.

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, there are an average of 2.9 named storms and 1.4 hurricanes in the gulf each hurricane season; and 1.4 named storms and 0.5 hurricanes by the end of August. During a heavy season, as 2010 is expected to be, there can be many, many more. And historically, the site of the Deepwater Horizon well has been right in the heart of a hurricane corridor.

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Asia trip

Obama Postpones Trip To Indonesia And Australia

Ben Frumin | June 4, 2010, 6:46AM

President Barack Obama

President Barack Obama is once again postponing his trip to Indonesia and Australia, White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs announced in a statement late last night.

Gibbs didn't offer a reason for the postponement of this month's trip. However, much of the administration's focus in recent weeks has been on the disastrous Gulf Coast oil spill -- the worst in U.S. history -- and Obama will visit the Gulf today for the third time since the spill.

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Alabama

Artur Davis: My Political Career Is Over

Ben Frumin | June 3, 2010, 6:14PM

Rep. Artur Davis (D-AL)

Rep. Artur Davis (D-AL) declared his political career all but over yesterday, after getting crushed 62-38 in his state's Democratic gubernatorial primary Tuesday.

"I have no interest in running for political office again," Davis said, according to the Birmingham News. "The voters spoke in a very decisive way across every sector and in every section of the state. A candidate that fails across the board like that obviously needs to find something else productive to do with his life."

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AL-GOV

AL-GOV Republican Run-Off Lineup Still Not Settled

Eric Kleefeld | June 3, 2010, 6:05PM

AL-GOV candidates Robert Bentley (R) and Tim James (R)

Last Tuesday's Alabama Republican primary for governor is not resolved yet, with the race going to a runoff on July 13 -- and it's not even settled yet who will be in the runoff, either.

The first-place finisher was Bradley Byrne, the former chancellor of the state's two-year college system, with 28% of the vote. But it is not yet totally clear who came in second -- state Rep. Robert Bentley leads businessman Tim James by just 208 votes, with each at about 25% of the vote.

Bentley's campaign has already claimed victory of sorts, with a press release boasting that he made the runoff. But James is not giving up. Earlier today, James publicly asked voters who had to cast provisional ballots to make sure their vote would be counted, by taking a driver's license or other identification to their county elections office by the deadline at 5 p.m. CT tomorrow. "There are an estimated 1,000 ballots that have yet to be counted," James said. "This race is still not settled."

MS-01

Defeated GOPer McGlowan Refused To Endorse 'RINO Republican' Nominee

Eric Kleefeld | June 3, 2010, 5:26PM

MS-01 House candidate Angela McGlowan (R)

One of the defeated GOP primary candidates from Tuesday didn't take her loss very well.

Angela McGlowan, a Fox News commentator who sought the Republican nomination to run against Blue Dog Democratic Rep. Travis Childers in Mississippi's First District, came in a very distant third place. State Sen. Alan Nunnelee won with 52%, avoiding a runoff, followed by former Eupora Mayor Henry Ross at 33% and McGlowan with 15%.

The Tupelo Daily Journal reported primary night that McGlowan had this to say about Nunnelee: "Right now it looks like Alan is going to take the nomination. I will vote for Alan, but I will not endorse him, because he's a RINO Republican, and he has raised folks' taxes, and I think he would run amok in Washington, D.C., the same as any other incumbent politician." McGlowan's campaign office has not returned our request for comment, to see if she stands by that statement.

Late Update: This post has been edited from the original.

Sharron Angle

Tea Party Express Ad: Sharron Angle Is The 'Conservative Republican Choice' (VIDEO)

Jillian Rayfield | June 3, 2010, 4:29PM

Sharron Angle, Republican candidate for Nevada US Senate seat

The Tea Party Express released a new TV ad today in support of Sharron Angle (R), touting her as the "conservative Republican choice" for Nevada Senate.

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Ethics

House Dem Seeks To Restrict Ethics Panel That Targeted Her Top Aide

Brian Beutler | June 3, 2010, 2:56PM

Rep. Marcia Fudge (D-OH)

If your chief of staff had been admonished by House Ethics investigators, would you think twice about sponsoring legislation to limit the reach of the Office of Congressional Ethics?

You might if you were Rep. Marcia Fudge (D-OH). Last year, following on an OCE investigation, the House Committee on Standards of Official Conduct admonished Fudge's Chief of Staff Dawn Kelly Mobley for actions she undertook when she had a different boss--Rep. Stephanie Tubbs Jones (D-OH), who died in 2008. Now Fudge, along with nearly 20 other members of the Congressional Black Caucus, are seeking to rewrite the rules that govern the OCE, to prevent the panel and other congressional investigators from releasing reports or making public statements about unresolved cases.

But according to Melanie Sloan, executive director of the watchdog group Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington, the proposal is much farther reaching than that and she says Fudge and her supporters are trying to shield themselves and other members of Congress from oversight.

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2010 elections

Tea Party Nirvana: Movement Finds Happy Home In Idaho GOP

Evan McMorris-Santoro | June 3, 2010, 2:55PM

What does a tea party-run GOP look like? Look to Idaho to find your answer. The state Republican party executive director is welcoming the tea party cause into the party -- and says he plans to use the movement as key part of his 2010 strategy.

That probably won't be a tough sell to Republicans in the state: More than 60% of Republicans in Idaho call themselves tea party supporters according to a recent poll.

Tea partiers have already begun the process of cleansing the state GOP of elected leaders that don't jibe with the movement's goals and creating a state party in its own image. The result? A state GOP shifting to the right, tea party leaders in ascendancy, "establishment" conservatives running scared -- and Democrats feeling confident.

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NV-GOV

Poll: Nevada Gov. Jim Gibbons On Track To Lose Tuesday's Republican Primary

Eric Kleefeld | June 3, 2010, 2:54PM

Gov. Jim Gibbons (R-NV), and NV-GOV candidate Brian Sandoval (R)

The new Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll of Nevada finds that yet another incumbent is set to lose his party's primary this Tuesday: scandal-plagued Republican Gov. Jim Gibbons, who appears on course to lose in a landslide against former federal Judge Brian Sandoval.

The numbers: Sandoval 48%, Gibbons 27%, and former North Las Vegas Mayor Mike Montandon 6%. The poll of likely GOP primary voters has a ±5% margin of error. The TPM Poll Average has Sandoval at 40.6%, Gibbons 25.0%, and Montandon 7.0%.

Gibbons was elected governor in 2006, and since then has had to deal with a variety of scandals involving a messy divorce, allegations of marital infidelity, and even an accusation of sexual assault. And yet in the face of consistent polling that showed he would lose his primary to the challenger Sandoval, he's kept on going.

NV-SEN

Poll: Angle Surges Ahead In NV-SEN Republican Primary

Eric Kleefeld | June 3, 2010, 1:52PM

Republican NV-SEN candidates Sue Lowden, Danny Tarkanian, and Sharron Angle

The new Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll of the Nevada provides further corroboration that Tea Party-backed former state Rep. Sharron Angle has taken the lead in this Tuesday's Republican primary for Senate.

The numbers: Angle 34%, former state GOP chair and establishment-supported candidate Sue Lowden 25%, and former UNLV basketball player Danny Tarkanian 24%. The poll of likely voters has a ±5% margin of error. Back in late April, Lowden had 38%, Tarkanian had 28%, and Angle was at a mere 13%.

The same poll also shows Harry Reid leading all three Republicans -- and doing the best against Angle. Kos writes: "I'll admit it -- I had written Reid off. But if there's a developing theme in this political season, it's the GOP's ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. And we can give the tea baggers a hearty and sincere 'thank you' for doing the seemingly impossible -- making our bumbling Dems look good by comparison."

NV-SEN

Poll: Reid Leading All GOPers In NV-SEN

Eric Kleefeld | June 3, 2010, 1:47PM

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV)

The new Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll of Nevada has Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid leading all three of his Republican challengers -- a big turnaround from his deficits in previous polls.

Reid leads former state Rep. Sharron Angle by 43%-37%, leads former state GOP chair Sue Lowden by 42%-38%, and leads ex-UNLV basketball player Danny Tarkanian by 43%-39%. The survey of likely voters has a margin of error. In the previous R2K poll from just over a month ago, all three GOP candidates had single-digit leads over Reid.

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2010 elections

From Toast To Trending Up -- GOP's Nevada Primary Scramble Helping Reid

Christina Bellantoni and Eric Kleefeld | June 3, 2010, 1:33PM

Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV) and (inset from top) NV Sen. candidates Sue Lowden (R), Danny Tarkanian (R) and Sharron Angle (R)

Tuesday's GOP primary election may once have been a dreaded day on Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid's calendar, but as the Republicans he'd been trailing in polls stumble over one another and trade barbs over who is more conservative, things are looking a little brighter for the embattled senator.

A new poll shows Reid (D-NV) beating each of the potential Republican challengers who once held solid leads over him. Sue Lowden, the one-time Washington favorite, self-destructed over some ill-timed health care barter comments just as her rivals Sharron Angle and Danny Tarkanian started to rise. Angle, the new conservative darling of the tea party and Washington groups like the Club for Growth, holds a 9-point lead heading into the primary. She and Lowden have been attacking one another as trailing Tarkanian is mainly running on a tough illegal immigration stance thanks in part to the immigration fight brewing next door in Arizona.

The Nevada primary is a microcosm of a trend playing out across the country, where national Republicans are attempting to harness the energy of the tea party without being pummeled by its anti establishment sentiment. (See Bennett, Bob.) That's the dynamic at work with Angle, who earned an April endorsement from the more corporate Tea Party Express. Sen. Jim DeMint's Senate Conservatives Fund hasn't picked a side, but activists involved have spoken favorably about both Angle and Tarkanian while saying Lowden is too tied to Washington.

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AL-05

Griffith On Party Switch: 'Politically, It May Have Been A Mistake' (VIDEO)

Ben Frumin | June 3, 2010, 12:13PM

Parker Griffith (R-AL)

Rep. Parker Griffith (R-AL), who switched from the Democratic to Republican Party in December only to get crushed in his new party's primary on Tuesday, said yesterday that he's at peace with his party switch -- even though it might have been a political mistake.

"I do not regret changing parties," he said at a news conference. "I think it may have been, politically, it may have been a mistake. On principle, it was the right thing to do and I'm happy about it."

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HI-01

Abercrombie Endorses Hanabusa For HI-01 As Dems Unite For November

Eric Kleefeld | June 3, 2010, 11:58AM

HI-01 House candidate Colleen Hanabusa (D)

Democrats are now coalescing behind Hawaii state Senate President Colleen Hanabusa, after her surprise second-place showing in the recent HI-01 special election, with former Congressman Neil Abercrombie now officially endorsing her for his old seat.

"I wholeheartedly endorse Colleen in the 1st Congressional District because of her service and leadership in the community," wrote Abercrombie, in a statement posted on his gubernatorial campaign site.

In the special election two weeks ago, Republican Charles Djou picked up a seat that President Obama carried with 70% of the vote in 2008, thanks to a split in the Democratic base. Djou had 39.5%, Hanabusa 30.8%, and former Rep. Ed Case -- who had been the favored candidate of national Democrats -- came in a very surprising third with 27.6%. Abercrombie had resigned from the seat in order to focus on his campaign for governor.

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Tom Campbell

New Campbell Ad: I Can Beat Barbara Boxer (VIDEO)

Eric Lach | June 3, 2010, 11:24AM

Former Rep. Tom Campbell (R-CA)

Former Rep. Tom Campbell has gone back on the air in California, with an ad trumpeting a recent poll that shows him beating Sen. Barbara Boxes (D-CA) in a head-to-head general election match-up. As the June 8 Republican Senate primary approaches, Campbell has struggled with his limited financial resources, but his latest ad asks voters to look past frontrunner Carly Fiorina's deep pockets.

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KY-SEN

Rush Songs Not For Rent To Rand Paul

Eric Kleefeld | June 3, 2010, 10:44AM

Rush lead singer Geddy Lee and KY Sen candidate Rand Paul (R)

The rock band Rush has sent Kentucky Republican Senate nominee Rand Paul a distant early warning: stop using our music.

Paul, who has quickly stepped into the limelight, used the Rush song "Tom Sawyer" in a Web video, and his campaign has also played "The Spirit of Radio" at a rally. In a far cry from the conservative Paul's discussion of protecting private property rights, his campaign actually used the libertarian-minded band's intellectual property without permission, attracting a letter from the band's lawyer for his attempt to get something for nothing.

The Web video using "Tom Sawyer" has already had its audio track disabled, after a complaint by Rush's attorney Robert Farmer. "This is not a political issue -- this is a copyright issue," Farmer told the Louisville Courier-Journal. "We would do this no matter who it is." Farmer also pointed out that Rush are not Americans -- they are Canadians, so the squabbles of American politics are not particularly closer to the heart for them.

2010 elections

Fiorina Vs. Fiorina: Let's Talk About The Weather...Or Not

Evan McMorris-Santoro | June 3, 2010, 10:09AM

Carly Fiorina, Republican candidate for California's Senate seat

Carly Fiorina is up with a new TV ad in the California Senate race slamming Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) for "talking about the weather" (i.e. calling climate change a national security issue) when she should be talking about something really scary, like global terrorist plots to kill us all. Trouble is, Fiorina has often found herself talking about the "weather," and even expressing concerns about it while mad bombers were likely plotting our demise on foreign shores.

Fiorina, in her new commercial: "Terrorism kills. And Barbara Boxer wants to talk about the weather...we've had enough of her politics. I'll work to keep you safe."

Fiorina, in her old job as John McCain surrogate, all the way back in mid-2008, talking about climate change: "I think it's important that when we think about taking on some of the great challenges now as opposed to leaving them to future generations, we have to talk not only about Social Security and medical care, but also about leaving our planet cleaner for the next generation than we found it."

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NV-SEN

Poll: Angle Leads In NV-SEN Republican Primary

Eric Kleefeld | June 3, 2010, 10:03AM

Sharron Angle, Republican candidate for Nevada US Senate seat

The new Suffolk poll of the Nevada Republican Senate primary gives Tea Party-backed former state Rep. Sharron Angle the lead.

The numbers: Angle 33%, ex-UNLV basketball player Danny Tarkanian 26%, and former state GOP chair and establishment-supported candidate Sue Lowden 25%. Lowden originally led in this primary, but has suffered dramatically from a variety of gaffes. The most notable example, of course, was when she suggested that people lower health care costs by using the barter system, referencing how her grandparents' generation would bring a chicken to the doctor's office as payment.

An Angle win in the primary would be good news for the Tea Party movement -- but very mixed for the GOP, as polling thus far has consistently shown her to be the weakest possible Republican candidate against Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid.

CO-SEN

Gibbs Tries To Downplay Obama Admin's Romanoff Job Talks

Ben Frumin | June 3, 2010, 9:31AM

Andrew Romanoff (D)

Press Secretary Robert Gibbs is trying to knock down chatter that the Obama Administration offered ex-Colorado House Speaker Andrew Romanoff a job so that he'd pass on challenging incumbent Sen. Michael Bennet (D-CO) in Colorado's August 10 Democratic Senate primary.

Romanoff had already applied for a job through normal channels during the presidential transition, Gibbs said, when White House Deputy Chief of Staff Jim Messina called and emailed him last September to see if Romanoff was still interested in the job, or whether he was running for Senate.

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CA-SEN

Last Shot: Candidates Lay Out Their Closing Arguments In CA-SEN

Evan McMorris-Santoro | June 2, 2010, 5:29PM

Republican candidates for CA Senate Chuck Devore, Carly Fiorina and Tom Campbell

Carly Fiorina has money to burn. Former Rep. Tom Campbell has poll numbers. Assemblyman Chuck DeVore has neither, but he's got heart. So goes the closing arguments of the hard-fought California Republican Senate primary. Will public polls showing it's now Fiorina's race to lose, the two men who once seemed destined to keep Fiorina out of Washington are now scrambling to make in impact in the final days before the June 8 primary.

Campbell, who was once the frontrunner, has taken a spectacular fall from grace. Penniless, the man who won his party's Senate nomination ten years ago now can't afford TV ads in the primary's final days. DeVore, a Jim DeMint-backed conservative who started the race with visions of becoming the Marco Rubio to Fiorina's Charlie Crist, told me today about "keeping the fire going" among his remaining volunteers.

For her part, Fiorina has already left the primary behind. Up by double digits in the latest polls, she's turned her attention -- and considerable fortune -- to attacking Sen. Barbara Boxer. Her Republican opponents say that's the problem.

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CA-SEN

All He Wants To Do Is Sue: Judge Rules Chuck DeVore Unlawfully Adapted Don Henley Songs (VIDEO)

Jillian Rayfield | June 2, 2010, 4:49PM

Talk about your "Dirty Laundry"...

A California judge ruled yesterday that Chuck DeVore, a Republican candidate for California Senate, unlawfully adapted two Don Henley songs for use in campaign ads.

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SC-GOV

GOP Candidates Unleash Ads Galore In SC-GOV Primary (VIDEO)

Eric Kleefeld | June 2, 2010, 4:26PM

SC-GOV Republican candidates.

The four candidates vying FOR the Republican nomination for governor of South Carolina have been airing a variety of interesting TV ads recently, hitting familiar themes -- bread and butter GOP issues like health care illegal immigration and the Tea Party movement, plus the quintessentially Southern theme of "states rights." And, of course, there's Sarah Palin.

Four candidates are vying the Republican nomination for governor of South Carolina, to succeed the term-limited (and scandal-plagued) GOP Gov. Mark Sanford. And all four of them have some great ads.

The candidates will meet on the ballot for the first time this Tuesday, June 8. A candidate will need to win more than 50% of the vote in order to be nominated outright. And with the polls showing all of them attracting significant support, the most likely outcome is that the the top two will meet again in a runoff on June 22. The TPM Poll average gives state Rep. Nikki Haley 28.7%, state Attorney General Henry McMaster 17.2%, Lt. Gov. André Bauer 16.7%, and Rep. Gresham Barrett 15.0%.

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Military service

From The Archives: Issa Snared In '98 In His Own Military Exaggeration

Christina Bellantoni | June 2, 2010, 4:09PM

Rep. Darrell Issa (R-CA)

As several politicians have been snared thanks to fibbing about their military records, TPM took a trip down memory lane exploring others who exaggerated service. It turns out that 12 years ago when Rep. Darrell Issa (R-CA) was running for Senate, the San Francisco Examiner uncovered that his Army record was in doubt.

The Examiner published in May 1998 a devastating article detailing the conflicts between Issa's public statements and public records. A focus in the story was Issa's claim he protected then-President Richard Nixon as part of an "elite Army bomb unit" at the World Series in 1971. But it turns out Nixon didn't even attend the games.

The Examiner scoured military records and concluded that Issa's service on the squad "was marred by a bad conduct rating, a demotion and allegations that he had stolen a fellow soldier's car." It cited his 1998 campaign biography saying he served in the Army nine years, even though records showed he served just over five years. He was enlisted from 1970-1972 and was in a college Army ROTC program from 1972 through 1976, the Examiner reported. It also noted that an Issa press release said he was "detailed to the Army security team" which traveled with Nixon, and quoted from a 1990 San Diego Union story that said Issa "was on a bomb disposal unit for President Nixon and got to see the 1971 World Series because Nixon wanted to go and the stadiums had to be secured."

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Artur Davis

Rolling The Dice: How Artur Davis Ended His Own Political Career

Brian Beutler | June 2, 2010, 3:53PM

Rep. Artur Davis (D-AL)

Artur Davis was never going to have an easy time becoming the first black governor of highly white, highly Republican Alabama. But in the end, he wasn't even able to make it past the first round, losing to Ron Sparks in last night's primary by a significant margin, after having dominated in the polls up until the eve of the election. How did such a charismatic and well-qualified pol, once considered a rising star in the Democratic party, allow his entire political career--his seat in Congress, his gubernatorial aspirations, his favor in national politics--to fizzle out?

Alabama political veterans say his major error was seeking to distance himself from Democrats--and particularly influential black organizations--at an early stage in the campaign, sacrificing principles for politics and taking for granted the very people who ultimately turned on him. Davis assumed--or took a huge gamble--that the historical promise of becoming Alabama's first black governor would be enough to rally his base--despite black leaders' endorsement of his white opponent--and that he could pre-emptively move to the right ahead of the general election in at times craven ways. He was wrong.

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Carly Fiorina

Fiorina Ad Attacks Boxer For Calling Climate Change A National Security Issue (VIDEO)

Eric Lach | June 2, 2010, 3:45PM

CA-SEN candidate Carly Fiorina (R)

California Senate candidate Carly Fiorina's latest ad looks past her upcoming GOP primary battle against Tom Campbell and Chuck DeVore and on to a bigger foe -- Democratic Senator Barbara Boxer.

Read more »

Meg Whitman

Whitman Ad: 'How Liberal Is Steve Poizner?' (VIDEO)

Eric Lach | June 2, 2010, 3:06PM

New ad from gubernatorial candidate Meg Whitman (R-CA) attacking primary opponent Steve Poizner.

California Republican gubernatorial candidate Meg Whitman latest ad does its best to link her opponent Steve Poizner to Al Gore, Planned Parenthood and high taxes.

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AK-SEN

Sarah Palin Endorses Challenger Against Alaska GOP Sen. Lisa Murkowski

Eric Kleefeld | June 2, 2010, 1:52PM

Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) and former Gov. Sarah Palin (R-AK)

Sarah Palin has now thrown herself back into Alaska politics -- and could be dredging up some old grudges -- endorsing former federal Magistrate Judge Joe Miller in his primary challenge against Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski.

Back in December 2002, Lisa Murkowski was appointed to the Senate by her father, Gov. Frank Murkowski, after the elder Murkowski had previously served in the Senate seat until his election as governor. At the time, Palin was believed to be on the list of possible appointees before Lisa Murkowski was picked. The appointment of his own daughter had horrible political repercussions for Frank Murkowski -- and in 2006, he was defeated in a landslide in the Republican primary by Sarah Palin.

Palin writes on her Facebook page: "I share Joe's belief that we are at a critical time in our nation's history and the status quo will no longer do. Unfortunately, Lisa Murkowski and much of the political establishment have recently evolved into being a bigger part of the big government problem in Washington, and they've strayed from the principles upon which they had espoused."

AR-SEN

SEIU Releases Final Anti-Lincoln Ad In AR-SEN (VIDEO)

Eric Lach | June 2, 2010, 1:01PM

An image from an SEIU ad targeting Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR)

The SEIU has been a big part of Big Labor's big push against Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) in the Arkansas Senate Democratic primary race. With the runoff days away, the group has released a final ad attacking Lincoln's record and supporting her opponent, Bill Halter.

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Florida GOP

Crist On Greer Case: 'I Do Not Feel Complicit'

Ben Frumin | June 2, 2010, 12:36PM

Governor Charlie Crist (I-FL)

Gov. Charlie Crist said today that while he's "disappointed" about the news that his ally Jim Greer had been arrested, he doesn't feel responsible for Greer's actions.

"I do not feel complicit," Crist said.

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PA-SEN

DSCC Poll Shows Sestak Up Seven In PA-SEN

Evan McMorris-Santoro | June 2, 2010, 12:28PM

Rep. Joe Sestak (D-PA) and former Rep. Pat Toomey (R-PA)

Despite a rocky start since winning the Democratic Senate nomination last month, a new poll from the DSCC shows Rep. Joe Sestak (D) comfortably ahead in the matchup with former Rep. Pat Toomey (R).

The DSCC poll, conducted by well-regarded Democratic polling firm Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group last week, shows Sestak leading Toomey by a margin of 47-40 after two weeks in which Sestak has been pounded by Republicans over his statement that the White House offered him a job to stay out of a primary fight with the man he eventually defeated, Sen. Arlen Specter.

That story has dominated national reporting of the Senate race in Pennsylvania, with the White House scrambling to answer questions about the deal, which the Obama administration has said included former President Clinton asking if Sestak would be interested in an unpaid position on a presidential board in exchange for not running. The story has caused an ongoing kerfluffle in D.C., but the new DSCC poll suggests it hasn't had the same effect on Pennsylvania voters.

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Mark Kirk

Kirk Acknowledges Earlier Instance of Embellishing His Military Service

Brian Beutler | June 2, 2010, 11:13AM

Rep. Mark Kirk (IL)

Illinois Senate hopeful Mark Kirk (R) has acknowledged, though not fully explained or apologized for, a years-old error on his official congressional bio page, which suggested that he served in Operation Iraqi Freedom, when in fact he had not.

"Kirk's 2005 campaign Web site noted this correctly," Kirk's team emailed the Washington Post. "Unfortunately, the official Web site listed the word "in" instead of "during" but was corrected in 2005."

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VA-05

Tea Party Fail: Moderate GOPer Heading To Nomination In Hot Central Virginia Race

Christina Bellantoni | June 2, 2010, 10:56AM

VA State Sen. Robert Hurt (R)

A few months ago it seemed the towns around Lynchburg, Virginia would be ground zero for a political shift -- Republican voters scoffed at an establishment favorite candidate as they set their sights on the fifth district. Now, the conservative favorite Laurence Verga has deflated, losing campaign staffers who say the more moderate Republican state Sen. Robert Hurt is all-but-certain to handily capture the party nomination for the central Virginia district on June 8. That would pit Hurt -- who drew ire for backing a 2004 state tax increase but is otherwise a pretty standard Republican -- against freshman Rep. Tom Perriello, a Democrat who won a GOP seat during the 2008 Obama tidal wave. He's vulnerable but has amassed a campaign war chest of more than $1.5 million.

But the GOP isn't free and clear yet of an intraparty battle, with yet another "true" conservative threatening to run as an independent in the general election if Hurt clears the seven-candidate field. Jeffrey Clark says he'll make a third party run if Hurt wins the GOP nomination, according to the Washington Post. Clark told the Lynchburg News and Advance that he views Hurt as a "situational conservative."

There are few polls and Republican sources on the ground say it's possible something would surprise them next Tuesday, but even former Verga loyalists told me privately that he's toast and Hurt will win.

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AR-SEN

Anti-Lincoln Ad Attacks 'Big Oil Blanche' (VIDEO)

Eric Lach | June 2, 2010, 10:38AM

New ad attacking Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) on campaign contributions from oil and gas interests.

An environmental group has released an ad painting Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) as an ally of Big Oil, and features liberal scourges George W. Bush, Dick Cheney and BP.

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Sarah Palin

Palin: Oil Spill Proves We Were Right About 'Drill, Baby, Drill'

Brian Beutler | June 2, 2010, 10:28AM

Former GOP Vice Presidential candidate Sarah Palin

The very politician who inspired country songs about drilling for oil is now boasting that her "drill here, drill now" plan for U.S. energy policy would have mitigated or forestalled the oil disaster in the Gulf...if only you redefine what she meant when she said that.

Last night, former half-term Alaska governor Sarah Palin believed she'd found a way to both absolve her oil-happy politics and blame environmentalists for the spill at the same time, and took to Twitter to rub it in.

"Extreme Greenies:see now why we push"drill,baby,drill"of known reserves&promising finds in safe onshore places like ANWR? Now do you get it?"

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Blanche Lincoln

Biden Sends Fundraising E-Mail For Blanche Lincoln

Jillian Rayfield | June 2, 2010, 10:26AM

Vice President Joe Biden

Vice President Joe Biden sent out a fundraising e-mail for Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) today, saying "Lincoln always does what is right for Arkansas" and that she is the state's "strongest advocate."

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KY-SEN

Poll: Rand Paul's Lead Shrinks

Eric Kleefeld | June 2, 2010, 10:15AM

KY Sen. candidates Rand Paul (R) and Jack Conway (D)

The new Rasmussen poll of Kentucky finds Republican nominee Rand Paul continuing to lead Democrat Jack Conway in the state's big Senate race -- but also suggests that the controversy surrounding Paul's statements against the Civil Rights Act of 1964 could potentially hurt him.

The numbers: Paul 49%, Conway 41%. The survey of likely voters has a ±4.5%. In a poll taken the day after the May 18 primary, which Paul won in a landslide, He had a much bigger lead over Conway of 59%-34%. The poll also says that 73% of voters have followed the news about Paul's comments somewhat closely or very closely. Forty-five percent say Paul's comments will be somewhat or very important to how they vote, with 47% saying it will be not very important or not all important to how they vote.

The TPM Poll Average gives Paul a lead of 48.4%-39.9%.

Republicans

Dems Thwart GOP Plan To Kill Science Jobs Bill With Porn Provision

Rachel Slajda | June 2, 2010, 9:05AM

Republican plans to once again bedevil House Democrats by attaching an anti-porn provision to a science jobs bill were thwarted when Dems pulled some parliamentary trickery of their own.

Last month, we told you how Republicans very nearly killed the COMPETES Act by slipping an anti-porn measure into a motion to send the bill back to committee. The move scared several Democrats into voting for the Republican motion, which would have also cut much of the bill's funding, and leadership pulled the bill off the floor.

The bill passed the House last week. Democrats pulled it off by splitting the Republicans' motion to recommit into parts, allowing members to vote for the anti-porn measure while voting against language that would have cut tens of millions of dollars from the bill.

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Lindsey Graham

Poll: Lindsey Graham In Trouble With South Carolina GOP Voters

Eric Kleefeld | June 2, 2010, 9:00AM

Sen. Lindsay Graham (R-SC)

A new survey of South Carolina by Public Policy Polling (D) finds that Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham, who is not up for re-election until 2014, is in serious trouble with his party's base right now.

The poll of this year's likely GOP primary voters found Graham's approval rating at only 40%, with 45% disapproval, and 53% also saying that he is too liberal. Respondents were asked this question: "The next time Lindsey Graham is up for reelection will you support him, or would you support a more conservative alternative?" The answer was only 32% supporting Graham, to 57% who would support a more conservative candidate.

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AL-05

Dem-Turned-GOPer Parker Griffith Loses Republican Primary

Eric Kleefeld | June 2, 2010, 12:21AM

Rep. Parker Griffith (R-AL)

Rep. Parker Griffith (R-AL), who switched from the Democratic Party in December 2009, has been defeated in his Republican primary by Madison County Commissioner Mo Brooks. Griffith is now the second party-switcher to lose his new party's primary this year, following Pennsylvania's Republican-turned-Democratic Senator Arlen Specter.

Griffith has conceded the race. With 99% of precincts reporting, Brooks has 51% of the vote -- just above the 50% needed to win without a runoff -- with Griffith at 33% and businessman Les Phillip with 16%. Griffith was elected to a Democratic-held open seat in 2008, winning a 51%-49% race in a district that John McCain carried 61%-38%. He switched parties in 2009, citing the health care bill and Democratic spending as major reasons for his decision, after having already voted against such big-ticket Democratic items as the stimulus, cap-and-trade and health care.

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FL-SEN

Crist Keeps Up Fight With GOP Legislature In Florida

Eric Kleefeld | June 1, 2010, 6:55PM

Gov. Charlie Crist (I-FL)

Florida Gov. Charlie Crist's separation from the Republican Party to run for Senate as an independent is turning more and more into a messy divorce, with the newest item being the feuding over Crist's line-item vetoes of the state budget.

On Friday, Crist vetoed $371 million in spending from the state budget, with the biggest item being $160 million from the state transportation fund. He also vetoed $39.5 million in construction projects for Florida International University -- which is the alma mater of state House budget head David Rivera, the House budget chief and a close ally of Republican Senate candidate Marco Rubio. He also cut $45 million for the University of South Florida polytechnic campus in Polk County, which is located in the district of state Senate budget chief J.D. Alexander. In response to the sum total of cuts, the Republican state House Speaker threatened to sue.

Yesterday, Crist said he could also potentially call the legislature back for a special session -- in which he would propose that a state constitutional amendment be put on the November ballot, to ban offshore drilling in Florida waters: "I think that it probably wouldn't be until a little later in the summer, that would be my best guess."

2010 elections

Alabama Treasurer GOP Primary: Young Boozer Vs. George Wallace

Eric Kleefeld | June 1, 2010, 6:33PM

Candidate for Alabama Treasurer Young Boozer (R)

In Alabama tonight, it's George Wallace versus -- Young Boozer. In addition to heated primaries for governor and the House of Representatives, the Heart of Dixie will also feature a Republican primary for state Treasurer with some very interesting names on the ballot.

In this case, the two candidates are George C. Wallace, Jr., son of the late Alabama governor and presidential candidate. The younger Wallace was previously elected Treasurer in 1986 and 1990, and was later elected as a Public Service Commissioner before losing the 2006 GOP primary for lieutenant governor.

As for Young Boozer, he is a former financial executive and former state Deputy Finance Director for two-term Republican Gov. Bob Riley. And as he explains on his website: "Yes, Young Boozer is my real name. I was named after my father who first made his name as a football star for the University of Alabama. My father was named after his father who served as Mayor of Samson, Alabama." He has also passed the family name on to his son Young Boozer.

CA-GOV

Jerry Brown Releases His First CA-GOV Ad: 'Enough Already!' (VIDEO)

Jillian Rayfield | June 1, 2010, 6:05PM

CA Atty. General Jerry Brown (D)

California Attorney General and former Gov. Jerry Brown, who is running for governor again, released his first ad today, hitting Republican opponents Meg Whitman and Steve Poizner for their campaign spending, and exclaiming: "Enough already!"

Read more »

Gulf Coast Oil Spill

Bachmann Criticizes Obama Admin For Being Too 'Hands Off' On Oil Spill (VIDEO)

Ben Frumin | June 1, 2010, 5:36PM

Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN)

Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN) -- who often suggests that the government should keep its hands off, well, just about everything -- took to the House floor last week to criticize the Obama administration for being too hands off on the Gulf Coast oil spill.

"We haven't seen competence in the government's hands-off policy with this disaster," Bachmann said, criticizing the government for being "nowhere to be found."

The administration, they were hands off. They didn't do anything. Where were the boats that could have been commandeered by the government to be sent into this region to deal with that oil plume as it was coming up to the water and destroying marine life? Nowhere to be found. Why? The administration was hands off on this policy.

Read more »

AR-SEN

Blanche Lincoln Getting Out The Early Vote

Eric Kleefeld | June 1, 2010, 5:35PM

Sen. Blanche Lambert Lincoln (D-AR)

The campaign of Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) is actively getting out the early vote, which opened today, in the home stretch of the June 8 Democratic Senate primary runoff against Lt. Gov. Bill Halter.

A cell phone text message sent by Lincoln's campaign to her supporter list said: "Early voting has begun! Find your early voting location, take a friend and go vote for Blanche Lincoln! http://bit.ly/ARvote Forward this message to 5 friends!"

This represents a key lesson from the 2008 election, when the Obama campaign vigorously began getting out the vote right from when the early-vote periods opened in different states, banking leads over John McCain in key states that he was unable to overcome when November 4 came around. In a state with liberalized absentee and early-voting laws, "Election Day" truly begins with early voting, and with the polls closing on a particular Tuesday evening down the road.

The TPM Poll Average currently gives Halter a lead of 47.3%-44.7%

NC-SEN

Marshall Campaign To Cunningham Donors: Your Guy Can't Win The Runoff

Eric Kleefeld | June 1, 2010, 3:33PM

NC-SEN Democratic candidates Elaine Marshall and Cal Cunningham

The Elaine Marshall campaign sent a very interesting letter to Cal Cunningham's supporters in the June 22 North Carolina Democratic Senate primary runoff.

Three weeks ago, the Marshall campaign's general consultant Thomas Mills mailed the letter to a list of Cunningham donors taken from FEC filings. To read the full letter, provided to us by the Cunningham campaign, click here. The letter told recipients that Cunningham could not win, after Marshall came in first place in the initial round of the primary, and encouraged them to get behind Marshall:

In the runoff election, Mr. Cunningham has very little to build upon. Sec. Marshall's fundraising has taken off since her victory. She will have to resources to complete in every medium and has a stronger, broader base to build upon. In addition, the runoff electorate will be African-American, a population in while she overwhelmingly defeated Mr. Cunningham, and almost 50% will be women over 50 years old, Sec. Marshall's base.

With your support, Mr. Cunningham built an impressive campaign. However, as I said, he has no credible path to victory in the runoff. Sec. Marshall will be the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in North Carolina. I invite you to join our campaign so we can begin the process of defeating Richard Burr in November. (Emphasis in the original.)

Read more »

Mark Kirk

Kirk Embellishments About Military Service Go Back Years

Brian Beutler | June 1, 2010, 3:04PM

Rep. Mark Kirk (R-IL)

U.S. Rep. Mark Kirk (R-IL), the GOP nominee for U.S. Senate, has apologized for misstating the name of an award he received while in the Navy, but there are other instances in the past few years wherein Kirk has embellished or fudged his service record, while stopping short of outright lying about it. In each instance, Kirk's statements have served to cast his record and his proximity to danger in a more, rather than less, heroic light: fostering the impression that he served in Operation Iraqi Freedom and claiming he did a tour of duty in Afghanistan, when both are misleading.

Some of Kirk's exaggerations were first documented in 2005 on the blog Nitpicker by an Afghanistan vet, and liberal, named Terry Welch. It was Welch who found the claim on Kirk's congressional website that Kirk was "the only member of Congress to serve in Operation Iraqi Freedom." For a larger view click on this link to an archive of Kirk's site, or on this screengrab, which Welch saved in 2005:

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Bill Halter

Halter Releases New Ad: 'The Only Choice For Change' (VIDEOS)

Jillian Rayfield | June 1, 2010, 1:25PM

Arkansas Lt. Governor Bill Halter (D)

Bill Halter (D), who is campaigning in the Democratic primary runoff against Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D) for her Arkansas Senate seat, released two new TV ads today that tout Halter as "the only choice for change."

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Repealing health care

House GOP Serves Up Reheated Proposal To 'Repeal And Replace' New Health Care Law

Christina Bellantoni | June 1, 2010, 12:59PM

Rep. Mike Pence (R-IN), Rep. Eric Cantor (R-VA), and Rep. John Boehner (R-OH)

House Republicans are returning to their promise of repealing the Democrats' health care reform law with a retread of their own alternative plan that a Congressional Budget Office analysis last year determined would provide coverage for next to no one. Just in time for the midterm elections, the Republicans introduced legislation to scrap "Obama care" -- even parts that voters like -- and sub in their own version.

As a refresher, their plan would let people buy insurance across state lines, give states more power and would include tort reform to end so-called "junk lawsuits" that the Republicans say make health care costs more expensive. The CBO score last fall found the GOP plan would cover just 3 million more people "leaving about 52 million" without insurance at about the same as the 2009 share of uninsured people. It would reduce premiums by between zero and three percent, CBO said. To hear the Republicans tell it, the measure would decrease premiums by "up to 20 percent." It reduces the deficit over time, but so does the Democrats' law.

Read more »

CA-GOV

New Whitman Ad: I'll 'Clean Up The Mess' In California (VIDEO)

Jillian Rayfield | June 1, 2010, 12:44PM

Gubernatorial candidate Meg Whitman (R-CA)

Meg Whitman, a Republican candidate for California Governor, released a new statewide TV ad today, saying she will "clean up the mess those politicians have made in Sacramento" by applying "conservative economic principles."

Read more »

CT-SEN

Blumenthal's Warm-And-Fuzzy First TV Ads Star Connecticut Residents

Christina Bellantoni | June 1, 2010, 12:15PM

Connecticut Attorney General Richard Blumenthal

Senate candidate Attorney General Richard Blumenthal (D-CT) today is going live with his first television ads of the election, following a rough few weeks of press from exaggerating his military record on several occasions. The three soft, 30-second spots focus on Connecticut residents Blumenthal has helped over his career and attempt to exploit a new poll showing he outranks his rival Linda McMahon (R-CT) on measures of "character," a campaign source said.

TPMDC obtained the new ads from a campaign source today. They show a family Blumenthal helped get insurance coverage, and a man with Leukemia who Blumenthal helped receive a needed operation. The ad below features an Ellington, Connecticut resident who had her home destroyed in a fire. Blumenthal's office helped her negotiate with her insurance company and a firm helping remove the debris of her home.

The tag line is "For Connecticut. First. Last. Always." The ads will rotate on Nutmeg State television. The TPM Poll Average of this race has Blumenthal leading McMahon 52.2 percent-37.7 percent.

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AR-SEN

SEIU Ad Attacks Lincoln For Wall Street Bailout (VIDEO)

Eric Kleefeld | June 1, 2010, 12:11PM

Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR)

The politically powerful union SEIU has a new ad attacking Sen. Blanche Lincoln in the June 8 Arkansas Democratic primary runoff, going after Lincoln's vote for the TARP bailout.

"Blanche Lincoln claims she's standing firm against Wall Street. But Lincoln voted to use our tax dollars to bail out Wall Street banks," the announcer says. This is a clear effort to discredit Lincoln's current work on financial reform, and to leverage the TARP issue that already helped to unseat Sen. Bob Bennett (R-UT) at his state GOP convention.

The TPM Poll Average currently gives Lt. Gov. Bill Halter a lead of 47.3%-44.7%.

Read more »

Oil Spill

Public Still Split On Obama's Handling Of BP Spill

Evan McMorris-Santoro | June 1, 2010, 11:57AM

President Barack Obama

Americans don't know what to think about the way President Obama is handling the massive oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico according to a new national poll released by Quinnipiac University today. The poll, conducted last week, confirms a trend that shows the public is increasingly wary of the White House's response to the still-spewing deep water oil spill.

The new Q poll shows 39% of Americans approve of the way Obama is handling the Gulf crisis, while 42% disapprove. The poll was conducted May 19-24 and has a margin of error of 2.2%

The TPM Poll Average of Obama's handling of the spill shows 39.2% approve while 55.2% disapprove. The trend line shows that as the spill has continued, public support for Obama's handling of it has dipped.

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AR-SEN

Bill Clinton Records Radio Ad for Blanche Lincoln (AUDIO)

Eric Kleefeld | June 1, 2010, 11:47AM

Former President Bill Clinton and Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR)

Former President Bill Clinton stars in a new radio ad for Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR), who is in a heated Democratic primary runoff against Lt. Gov. Bill Halter in Clinton's native state of Arkansas.

"We've never had a Chairman of the Senate Agriculture Committee before, and we shouldn't give it up now," says Clinton. "In Washington everybody was betting Wall Street would beat her efforts to clean up trading practices that led our country to the brink of economic collapse, but they were wrong, she won that fight. And, when President Obama needed her help on health care reform she stood with him to secure health coverage and better and more affordable care. She took a lot of heat for that vote, but you and I know she did the right thing."

Read more »

AR-SEN

New Lincoln Ads: 'I Won't Back Down To The Washington Unions' (VIDEO)

Eric Kleefeld | June 1, 2010, 11:21AM

Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR)

Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR), who is in a heated Democratic primary runoff for June 8 with the more liberal Lt. Gov. Bill Halter, has a new pair of TV and radio ads for the home stretch of the campaign -- proudly declaring her independence from the labor unions that have backed her opponent.

"I'm Blanche Lincoln, and I know you're angry at Washington. Believe me, I heard you on May 18. I'm even being attacked for where my family lives," Lincoln says in the TV ad, referring to the first-round primary in which she came in first place with 45%, but with less than the 50% needed to win. She is also apparently referring to the Halter campaign's gloating over Lincoln's initial trouble voting in the primary, after she had sent away for an absentee ballot and had not mailed it back. "But I won't back down to the Washington unions or the Wall Street banks that don't care about Arkansas."

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Sharron Angle

NV-SEN Candidate Angle's Allies Out-Spending Lowden In Final Stretch

Jillian Rayfield | June 1, 2010, 11:03AM

US Senate candidates Sharron Angle (R-NV) and Sue Lowden (R-NV)

In a final push against state GOP chair Sue Lowden, allies of Sharron Angle are outspending Lowden in TV ad time in the final weeks before the Republican primary in the Nevada Senate race.

Read more »

Harry Reid

Reid On Potential NV-SEN Opponents: 'They All Scare Me'

Jillian Rayfield | June 1, 2010, 10:11AM

Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV)

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid doesn't care who opposes him the general election for his Nevada Senate seat. "They all scare me," he said yesterday.

Read more »

IA-GOV

Poll: Branstad Under 50% In IA-GOV Republican Primary

Eric Kleefeld | June 1, 2010, 9:35AM

Former Gov. Terry Branstad (R-IA)

A new survey of Iowa by Public Policy Polling (D) suggests that former Gov. Terry Branstad, who is seeking to reclaim the office he held for 16 years in the 1980s and 1990s, could be surprisingly vulnerable in next Tuesday's Republican primary against Tea-Party aligned businessman Bob Vander Plaats.

The numbers: Branstad 46%, Vander Plaats 31%, and state Rep. Rod Roberts 13%. The poll of likely GOP primary voters has a ±4.5% margin of error.

"The race is particularly tight among the conservative voters who have been giving GOP establishment candidates fits across the country so far in 2010. With them Branstad leads Vander Plaats only 41-35. He expands his overall lead thanks to a 58-19 advantage with moderates," writes PPP communications director Tom Jensen. "Among voters that actually know who Vander Plaats is- whether they see him favorably or unfavorably- he leads Branstad 42-37. The question is if there's enough time left for Vander Plaats to completely make up the huge gap in name recognition he began the campaign with."

AR-SEN

Lincoln And Halter Launch 'Countdown' Campaign Tours

Eric Kleefeld | June 1, 2010, 9:15AM

Arkansas Lt. Governor Bill Halter (D) and Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR)

Today is a big day in the home stretch of the Arkansas Democratic Senate primary runoff, which ends June 8. Early voting begins today, with the first votes set to be cast in this barn-burner contest. And incumbent Sen. Blanche Lincoln and Lt. Gov. Bill Halter are hitting the trail hard today.

Lincoln's tour tomorrow is called the "Countdown to Victory," and will involve stops in Little Rock, Pine Bluff, Star City, Monticello, Hamburg, Warren and Lake Village, in events that are officially billed as "early vote meet-ups." Take this as a sign that the Lincoln campaign has learned a key lesson that the Obama campaign and the political world at large discovered in 2008 -- that "Election Day" really begins on the first day of early voting, and get-out-the-vote efforts should be going in full force from there on.

Read more »

2010 elections

Voters Headed To Polls Tuesday In Three State Primaries

Eric Kleefeld | May 31, 2010, 3:29PM

Tomorrow will be a busy primary day in three states, with races that could provide some more hints into the extent of any establishment vs. grassroots party feuding, especially on the Republican side.

The races will occur in three states: Alabama, Mississippi and New Mexico. It should be noted that Alabama and Mississippi use runoff elections if no candidate wins more than 50% of the vote in a primary. And since many of these races are wide-open contests with three candidates or more, there could be quite a few runoffs to come.

So let's take a look at some of the key contested races for tomorrow.

Read more »

Ronald Reagan

Top Moments In Politicians Lying About Military Service

Brian Beutler | May 31, 2010, 2:21PM

Richard Blumenthal, Mark Kirk, Hillary Clinton, Ronald Reagan

Senate hopefuls Mark Kirk (R) and Dick Blumenthal (D) will likely be dogged from now until November by accusations that they embellished their military backgrounds. But as galling as their transgressions may be, they're part of a rich, scandalous tradition of American pols exaggerating--or simply lying about--their service records in front of the right crowds, when they think they can get away with it.

Herewith, our favorite examples of politicians getting caught red handed fibbing about their war records.

Read more »

Financial Reform

Wall Street Invite: Come Meet Privately With Congressmen Negotiating Financial Reform!

Brian Beutler | May 31, 2010, 12:04PM

Wall Street

A small Wall Street securities firm has teamed up with a lobbyist for the financial services industry to host an all-day event on June 15 -- right in the middle of the conference committee negotiations over the financial reform bill -- that will feature "the KEY House and Senate Conferees and majority and minority Committee staff, as well as leading financial lobbyists covering interchange, banks and major non-banks affected by so-called Wall Street Reform bill," according to an invitation obtained by TPM.

The firm, JNK Securities Corp., declined to comment about the event.

The other firm helping to organize the event, according to the email invitation, is Federal Advisory LLC. The registered agent for Federal Advisory LLC is Tim Rupli, according to Virginia corporation records. Rupli is a former aide to Tom DeLay and now a high-powered Republican lobbyist for the payday lending industry and the community banks trade association, among other clients.

Reached last week, Rupli declined to be interviewed, but suggested that the event may not take place after all. He hung up before elaborating.

While the invitation says the event will be on Capitol Hill, it doesn't not specify the exact venue. Rupli's Capitol Hill townhouse on New Jersey Avenue within easy walking distance of the House office buildings next to the Capitol, has been the frequent venue for fund-raising receptions, ranking as the 10th most popular congressional partying spot of 2008.

Read more »

2012 elections

Polls: No GOP Frontrunner In Early Primary States

Eric Kleefeld | May 31, 2010, 11:39AM

Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin

With about a year and a half to go before the first Republican caucuses and primaries in 2012, a new set of numbers from Public Policy Polling (D) shows that none of the big names have yet come to dominate the field, with a different candidate leading in each of three states.

"The story in our 2012 Republican polling continues to be that there is no one approaching front runner status," writes PPP president Dean Debnam.

Read more »

CA-GOV

Poll: Whitman Leads Poizner In CA-GOV Republican Primary

Eric Kleefeld | May 31, 2010, 10:13AM

CA-GOV candidates Meg Whitman (R) and Steve Poizner (R)

The new poll by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (D) of the California Republican gubernatorial primary shows former eBay CEO Meg Whitman way ahead of state Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner -- with both of them trailing presumptive Democratic nominee Jerry Brown for the general election.

The numbers: Whitman 53%, Poizner 29%. The survey of likely GOP primary voters has a ±4.5% margin of error. The TPM Poll Average has Whitman ahead of Poizner by 47.4%-28.%.

Jerry Brown, the current state attorney general and also a former governor and three-time president candidate, remains the favorite for the general election, leading Whitman by 44%-38% and leading Poizner by 45%-31%. Each match-up was tested among a separate half-sample of registered voters, with a ±3.6% margin of error each. The TPM Poll Average shows Brown ahead of Whitman by 44.4%-39.8%, and ahead of Poizner by 46.6%-33.5%.

CA-SEN

Poll: Fiorina Leads Campbell In CA-SEN Republican Primary

Eric Kleefeld | May 31, 2010, 9:59AM

CA-SEN candidate Carly Fiorina (R)

The new poll of California by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (D) shows former Hewlett Packard Fiorina CEO with a strong lead in next Tuesday's Republican primary for Senate -- while it's also possible her main primary opponent, former Rep. Tom Campbell, could be the stronger GOPer for the general election against Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer.

The numbers for the primary: Fiorina 38%, Campbell 23%, and state Rep. Chuck DeVore 16%. The survey of likely GOP primary voters has a ±4.5% margin of error. The TPM Poll Average gives Fiorina 34.5% Campbell 24.8%, and DeVore 15.7%.

However, it should be noted that Campbell is the only one of the three GOPers who leads Boxer in this poll. Boxer leads Fiorina by 44%-38%, Campbell leads Boxer by 45%-38%, and Boxer leads DeVore by 46%-36%. Each match-up was tested among a separate third-sample of registered voters, with a ±4.5% margin of error each. The TPM Poll Average has Boxer leading Fiorina 45.3%-39.6%, Boxer leading Campbell 43.8%-41.1%, and Boxer leading DeVore 46.3%-38.9%

Mark Kirk

IL GOPer Kirk Admits Claim On Military Award 'Was Not Precise'

Ben Frumin | May 31, 2010, 9:33AM

Mark Kirk

Richard Blumenthal's not the only one...

Rep. Mark Kirk (R-IL) -- the Republican nominee for President Obama's old Senate seat -- acknowledged over the weekend that an earlier claim about his military record wasn't entirely accurate.

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HI-01

Ed Case Not Running Again For HI-01

Eric Kleefeld | May 31, 2010, 9:32AM

HI-01 House candidates Ed Case (D) and Colleen Hanabusa (D)

Former Rep. Ed Case (D-HI), who came in third place in the recent HI-01 special election, announced over the weekend that he will not run again in the regular Democratic primary election this September -- likely ceding the Dem nomination to the more liberal state Senate President Colleen Hanabusa, who came in second in the special election.

"My heart tells me to stay in this fight, but my head says this has become the wrong fight," Case in a statement. Case had been the unofficially-backed candidate of the national Democrats in that election, in which Dems suffered from a split vote of two Democrats versus one Republican, now-Rep. Charles Djou. However, many state-level Democrats never forgave him for his 2006 primary challenge against Sen. Daniel Akaka, with Akaka, Sen. Daniel Inouye and organized labor backing Hanabusa.

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KY-SEN

Poll: Rand Paul Leads Jack Conway By 6 In KY-SEN Race

Ben Frumin | May 31, 2010, 9:04AM

KY Sen. candidates Rand Paul (R) and Jack Conway (D)

A new SurveyUSA poll shows Republican Rand Paul leading Democrat Jack Conway by six points in Kentucky's Senate race. Paul leads Conway 51-45, according to the poll.

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AL-05

Dem-Turned-GOPer Parker Griffith In Spirited Primary Fight Tuesday

Eric Kleefeld | May 31, 2010, 9:01AM

Rep. Parker Griffith (R-AL)

Rep. Parker Griffith (R-AL), who was elected as a Democrat in 2008 and switched to the Republicans in December 2009, could be facing a tough challenge in his primary this Tuesday.

Under Alabama law, a candidate must receive over 50% of the vote in the primary, or else he would have to compete in a runoff election in July. A Republican source in Alabama told TPMDC that Griffith's two challengers, Madison County Commissioner Mo Brooks and businessman Les Phillip, are competing for the same voters against Griffith. "I'd give him probably a 60% chance of getting to 50 plus one," the source said, explaining that Griffith is favored to win but also that a runoff could be tricker for him.

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2010 elections

It's Recess -- Do You Know Where Your Wedge Issue Is?

Christina Bellantoni | May 31, 2010, 8:37AM

Rep. James Clyburn (D-SC), House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), and Rep. Rosa DeLauro (D-CT)

House Democrats are home for a long Memorial Day break with a gift-wrapped wedge issue delivered just in time for district campaigning. One of their final actions before adjourning late Friday was passing a measure that would strip tax breaks for companies that ship jobs overseas by a 215-204 vote.

Sure, wedge issues are usually social in nature, but the Democrats stand ready to divide crucial midterm election voters on economic policy. Democratic campaign types are thrilled with the timing of the vote, saying the outsourcing issue gives candidates the perfect platform to repeat Mark Critz's successful campaign that helped him win the special election in Pennsylvania's 12th Congressional district earlier this month. One Democrat said the Republican opposition to addressing outsourcing "will be a clear line in the sand" that members are being asked to highlight back home next week.

"They are voting against jobs," the Democrat said in a preview of television attack ads and pressure campaigns Republicans can expect this week.

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