How is it that former Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina, the GOP’s establishment-backed candidate for Senate in California, has quickly shot into the lead in the Republican primary? After having been down by double-digits against former Rep. Tom Campbell, she’s now ahead by an even bigger double-digit margin, according to a pair of recent polls. The answer appears to be mainly money and a well-timed television ad campaign going into the home stretch of the June 8 primary — along with a big push by conservatives against Campbell.
As recently as last week, a Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll gave Campbell a lead of 37%-22% over Fiorina in the GOP primary. But now, SurveyUSA gives Fiorina an even bigger lead of 46%-23%, and Public Policy Polling (D) similarly has her ahead of Campbell by 41%-21%. (The other candidate, Tea Party-backed state Rep. Chuck DeVore, has consistently polled in third.) The TPM Poll Average gives Fiorina a sudden lead with 29.1%, Campbell 27.0%, and DeVore 15.9%, after Campbell had led in polling for this primary all year.
A Republican source in California told TPMDC that a “major reason” for the sudden swing in the polls was Fiorina’s advantage in spending and TV advertising, compared to Campbell and DeVore. “They had a few ads here and there, but certainly nothing to the extent that Fiorina has been putting out,” the source said. “And now is the time when people in California, two weeks out from the primary, are really paying attention and making some decisions.”
Fiorina publicly launched a significant ad buy three weeks ago. By contrast, Campbell recently had to cancel a week’s worth of TV, and significantly cut back the size of his ad buys for the final two weeks of the campaign — essentially disarming himself against Fiorina.
Beating back Tom Campbell would be a major win for the right. While in Congress, he opposed aid to Israel and other internationalist foreign policies, and also held many socially liberal views, which has caused many conservatives to oppose him and mobilize against him in this race: The National Organization for Marriage has attacked him for opposing Proposition 8, the 2008 initiative that banned gay marriage; the pro-life Susan B. Anthony List has hit him for his pro-choice position; and the National Rifle ASsociation has gone after him for favoring gun-show regulations and restrictions on assault weapons.
In fact, when Sarah Palin endorsed Fiorina, she obliquely pitched Fiorina as an anti-Campbell candidate, without naming the opponent directly, by referring to Fiorina’s fight against “a liberal member of the GOP who seems to bear almost no difference to Boxer, one of the most leftwing members of the Senate.”
Eric Kleefeld
Eric Kleefeld joined TPM as an intern for the final months of the 2006 midterm elections, and then kept showing up for work. His other interests include guitars, old comic books and the politics of various English-speaking countries.
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