The Pennsylvania Democratic Senate primary is growing increasingly competitive as the May 18 election day draws near. Sen. Arlen Specter has seen his once double-digit lead over Rep. Joe Sestak in the Quinnipiac University poll dwindle to eight points in the Q poll of the race, which follows a trend of public polling showing Sestak closing in on Specter in the race’s final days.
The new poll, released by Quinnipiac this morning, shows Specter leading the race by margin of 47-39. The last Q poll of the race, taken in April, showed Sestak trailing Specter badly by a margin of 32-53.
The latest Q poll was conducted 4/28-5/2 among 930 likely Democratic primary voters in PA. The margin of error is 3.2%.
The Q poll is just the latest to show Sestak with momentum on his side as the primary approaches. The TPM Poll Average of the primary shows Specter ahead by a margin of 45.6-35.2.
As the TPM PollTracker shows, Sestak’s polling numbers are on the rise, while Specter’s numbers have remained essentially flat:
According to Quinnipiac pollster Peter Brown, Sestak is enjoying a boost in the polls thanks to a campaign that’s now fully underway. Also, he said, Specter’s plan to save his job by switching parties may have run into trouble.
“As a Republican, Specter did well among Democrats, but large majorities of Democrats have been voting against him for 30 years and that might be a tough habit for many of them to break,” Brown said. “In addition, Specter’s big lead in name identification has begun to erode as Sestak television commercials introduce him to the voters outside his suburban Philadelphia base.”
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