The new Suffolk poll of the Pennsylvania Democratic Senate primary gives Rep. Joe Sestak a huge lead over incumbent Sen. Arlen Specter, who has found himself struggling among Democratic primary voters over his switch from the Republican Party a year ago.
The numbers: Sestak 49%, Specter 40% — the largest lead for Sestak that has been recorded in any publicly released poll. The survey of likely Dem primary voters has a ±4.9% margin of error. The TPM Poll Average gives Specter a bare edge of 43.8%-43.5%, with Sestak quickly catching up.
From the pollster’s analysis: “A heavy minority vote could make a difference for Specter. Sestak won white voters 51 percent to 37 percent but trailed among minority voters, where Specter led 52 percent to 37 percent. Sestak carried union households by a wide margin, 60 percent to 36 percent”