The new Rasmussen poll of the North Carolina Senate race shows Democratic Secretary of State Elaine Marshall enjoying a healthy bump in the polls against Republican Sen. Richard Burr, with Marshall only trailing by one point after her big win in Tuesday’s Democratic primary runoff.
In this first poll since Marshall took the Dem nomination, Burr has 44% to Marshall’s 43%. The survey of likely voters has a ±3% margin of error. In Rasmussen’s previous poll from three weeks ago, during the Dem runoff campaign, Burr led Marshall by a much stronger 50%-36%.
The TPM Poll Average gives Burr a lead of 46.8%-39.9%, though this average is composed almost entirely of data from before Marshall won the nomination. Burr has been by far the most vulnerable incumbent Republican Senator this cycle, due to an unusual political problem — many polls have suggested that he is neither popular nor unpopular, but has lackluster approval ratings that show he hasn’t made much of an impression with the voters at all. As such, this race will depend in large part on the overall political environment in this swing state, and the quality of the coming campaign against him.