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Rasmussen Poll Puts Dem Murray In Tight WA-SEN Race


Potential WA Sen. candidate Dino Rossi (R) and Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA)

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The new Rasmussen poll of Washington state shows a tight re-election fight for Democratic Sen. Patty Murray.

The poll has Murray tied 47%-47% with Republican former state Sen. Dino Rossi, and 3% for "some other candidate." She leads Republican former pro football player Clint Didier 48%-40%, with 6% for "some other candidate." And she leads Republican businessman Paul Akers 48%-38%, with 4% for "some other candidate." The survey of likely voters has a ±4.5% margin of error. The TPM Poll Average give Murray a lead over Rossi of 45.7%-42.5%.

To go nitpicking, "some other candidate" won't be an option on the ballot in November, though voters could potentially register some form of protest-vote with a write-in. Washington state's electoral system is different from the rest of the country, unlike the party primaries and general elections that we're used to. And that system is spreading -- so pollsters around the country better get used to it.

Washington state uses the "Top Two" electoral system. All candidates for partisan offices, other than President of the United States, will appear on the same primary ballot in August -- Murray, Rossi, Didier, etc. -- with the top two finishers, regardless of party, headed to the general election ballot in November.

In this instance, the top will presumably be Murray and one of the Republicans, but the system does allow for two Democrats or two Republicans. But the point here is that the November ballot in Washington will have only two names listed for U.S. Senate, plus a write-in slot (see this sample ballot from November 2008).

And what's more, the Top Two system was just passed in California just two and a half weeks ago. The referendum was copied directly from Washington's model, as it has already withstood a challenge at the Supreme Court. And since California has roughly 12% of the country's entire population, a whole lot of people will be voting under this system. And who knows, other states might even pick it up, too. So pollsters and party strategists better get used to understanding the ins and outs of this system.

Rasmussen could not be reached for comment.

Comments (23) | Join the Conversation!

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June 25, 2010 12:23 PM   

I, for one, appreciate you identifying Rasmussen in the headline.

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June 25, 2010 1:06 PM    in reply to Steve M

The problem is, the casual reader who isn't aware that Rasmussen polls are bullshit might actually think there's some news here. TPM really needs to start including caveats in their Rasmussen stories, like calling them "Republican-leaning" or "considered inaccurate by the rest of the polling community," or some such.

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June 25, 2010 1:19 PM    in reply to commie atheist

That'll never happen. TPM goes for the clicks - nothing else. Touting these polls is designed to quicken the heart rate of its readers. Nothing makes you click and read more than bad political news.

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June 25, 2010 4:17 PM    in reply to Steve M

So basically, you're saying that it's 57%-43% Murray? Cool :-)

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June 25, 2010 12:35 PM   

Me too. Now how about we put 'Ras' or something like that on the front page too. That's where I linked from.

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June 25, 2010 12:36 PM   

BREAKING: Rasmussen says all Democrats are DOOOOOOOMED!

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June 25, 2010 12:38 PM    in reply to Ajax the Greater

BREAKING: So do Fox News, Redstate.com, Charles Krauthammer and the rest of the WaPo conservative oped page, Sarah Palin and the NY Post!

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June 25, 2010 12:38 PM   

So Rasmussen has them tied?

Translation: The Democrat has a 6-9 point lead. :D

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June 25, 2010 1:00 PM   

Once again:

Rasmussen said he is simply a "scorekeeper," but his spike in clout has sharpened skepticism about how he tracks the dip in Democratic fortunes. Frustrated liberals suspect sorcery. Markos Moulitsas, the creator of the Daily Kos blog, has accused the pollster of "setting the narrative that Democrats are doomed" with numbers that fuel hours of Republican-boosting on talk radio and cable.

The old guard of the polling industry charges that Rasmussen merely makes educated guesses, like a market-savvy contestant on a political "The Price Is Right," and considers him a threat to the standards of an industry already facing existential challenges. Those traditional peers fear Rasmussen's rise signals the fall of the in-depth probing that politicians, policymakers and reporters have turned to for more than half a century.

(snip)

"The firm manages to violate nearly everything I was taught what a good survey should do," said Mark Blumenthal, a pollster at the National Journal and a founder of Pollster.com. He put Rasmussen in the category of pollsters whose aim, first and foremost, is "to get their results talked about on cable news."

Nate Silver, who runs the polling analysis site FiveThirtyEight, soon to be hosted on the Web site of the New York Times, faults Rasmussen for polling only likely voters, which reduces the pool to "political junkies."

"It paints a picture of an electorate that is potentially madder than it really is," agreed Scott Keeter, director of survey research at Pew Research Center and vice president of the American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR). "And potentially more conservative than it really is."

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/06/16/AR2010061605090.html

Rasmussen polls are partisan bullshit polls. Yet if you look to the right, all you see on "TPM PollTracker" are Rasmussen polls. And every day a new story on yet another Rasmussen poll. Enough already.

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June 25, 2010 1:33 PM    in reply to commie atheist

It's not a bad thing that they keep track of the Rasmussen Polls, especially on the poll tracker. That way people can see for themselves that what Rasmussen is showing is BS in comparison to everyone else.

But I do agree, that making any of their polls as a headline is just crap.

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June 25, 2010 3:09 PM    in reply to commie atheist

Absolutely correct – except – you’re all wrong CA.

Don’t you remember those RR Bush popularity polls? And the rest of the 2006-2008 run up to the changeover? Didn’t mind those numbers I assume?

Blumenthal’s quote got sniped by the Wa Po to such an extent he had to publish the contextual correction on his own site. Nate Sliver is not independent – he’s ideological. The AAPOR – a sour grapes social club methinks. And Markos – poor Markos – what happened to his pollster the very day after the recent Blanche Lincoln win?

The day TPM runs “partisan BS polls” is the day I think you could no longer trust TPM. You do trust TPM, don’t you?

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June 25, 2010 4:20 PM    in reply to tedc

Nate Silver's "ideology" could very well go to his generic credibility... if Nate Silver weren't almost always "right".

So, it can't.

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June 25, 2010 1:32 PM   

Jumping on the ratsmussen band wagon. Junk polling and not worthy of a post. Hope the repukes buy his bullsh*t and feel over confident. That being said, maybe ratsmussen is a closet dem?

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June 25, 2010 1:43 PM   

If Rasmussen's polls are such b.s. (and I don't doubt they are), how does he end up polling elections closer than most everybody else in the end? Does he abruptly change his likely voter model close to the election?

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June 25, 2010 3:23 PM    in reply to jdb316

Right you are jdb316 - critics here totally ignore accuracy.

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June 25, 2010 3:23 PM    in reply to jdb316

Yes, that's exactly what they do. Also, if you read the daily kos post, you would know that Rasmussan hasn't polled within 2 weeks of any election since 2008. This keeps them from having to validate their polling techniques until November. They will no doudt change their demographics slowly starting in September to better represent the electorate. For now their polls are used merely to stimulate campaign cotributions and right wing pundits.

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June 25, 2010 1:54 PM   

TPM should take the AVERAGE of the weekly Rass 'polls' and add it in each MONDAY MORNING.

But this daily exposure is pure bullcrap.

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June 25, 2010 2:02 PM   

Yay! She's ahead!

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June 25, 2010 2:13 PM   

So why does TPM constantly tout Rasmussen? I'm not saying ignore Rasmussen as he's, well, out there. But his detractors are legion, the evidence of his "hackery' vast, yet this site still acts like he's a pollster of repute. And it's not cause he's Right Wing, I've seen suspect left leaning polls. But Rasmussen is a train wreck. Am I missing something here?

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June 25, 2010 2:44 PM    in reply to Scyth

Same thought, here. I wonder how much reportage of Rasmussen polls gives it legitimacy, and moves support for their candidates?

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bvd

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June 25, 2010 2:34 PM   

HEADLINE: RASMUSSEN POLLS TALKING POINTS MEMO 8 POINTS BELOW WWW.YEAH_WHATEVER.COM - TPM CLEARLY DOOMED!

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June 25, 2010 5:14 PM   

Rasmussen, what a joke - Murry is 5 - 10 points ahead.

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June 26, 2010 12:09 AM   

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