TPMDC
July 25, 2010 - July 31, 2010

Uni-Tea

Diversity Is In The Eye Of The Beholder: A Day At Uni-Tea

It was billed as the most diverse tea party rally ever. For three hours Saturday afternoon, we waited for the diversity to show up.

Was Saturday's Uni-Tea rally in Philadelphia a success? Well, it depends on your definition of "epic fail." If you're more on the defensive end of the tea party spectrum, you would have left the rally this afternoon even more convinced that the movement is not now about race and never has been. If you're the kind of tea partier who'd like to see that abounding not-racism result in some actual demographic diversity in the movement, the Uni-Tea rally appeared to be a borderline disaster.

For three hours, a small crowd drifted in and out of Independence Park as speakers and musicians regaled them with paranoia about Democratic politicians and policies and reassurances that no matter what anyone says, there's no racism in the tea party.

Even as just a regular old tea party rally, the event fell flat. Though organizers said the event's website had been visited more than 2 million times in the days leading up to today's rally outside Independence Hall, for most of the afternoon there were fewer than 500 in attendance. It was clear from the large numbers of volunteers and the 1,500 bottles the organizers put on ice that they expected a big crowd to turn out. They did not get it by a long shot. They blamed a traffic jam on I-95 for keeping people away (for the record one organizer said that she counted 1,500 on the high end of attendance, but that appeared a bit generous to us).

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Topics: Uni-Tea

Andrew Breitbart

Breitbart Ducks Questions About Sherrod At Uni-Tea

The Tea Party's Uni-Tea rally in Philadelphia today marked Andrew Breitbart's first public speech since Shirley Sherrod's firing from the USDA, but Breitbart ducked TPM's questions about the incident, and didn't bring it up at all in his 20-minute long speech.

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Topics: Andrew Breitbart, Uni-Tea

Roundup

TPMDC Saturday Roundup

Obama: Senate GOP Leaders 'Holding America's Small Businesses Hostage To Politics'
In this weekend's YouTube address, President Obama promoted his administration's program of aid to the auto industry. And he also blasted Republican leaders for filibustering the small business jobs bill.

"It's a bill that includes provision after provision authored by both Democrats and Republicans. But yesterday, the Republican leaders in the Senate once again used parliamentary procedures to block it," said Obama. "Understand, a majority of Senators support the plan. It's just that the Republican leaders in the Senate won't even allow it to come up for a vote. That isn't right. And I'm calling on the Republican leaders in the Senate to stop holding America's small businesses hostage to politics, and allow an up-or-down vote on this small business jobs bill."

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Topics: 2010 elections, Arizona, Barack Obama, Charlie Rangel, Chelsea Clinton, Edwin Kneedler, Immigration, Israel/Palestine, Jobs, Mahmoud Abbas, Mike Johanns, Roundup

Tea Party

Preview: Today Is Tea Party Diversity Day -- Featuring Andrew Breitbart


Andrew Breitbart

Andrew Breitbart, the man who helped get Shirley Sherrod fired from the Department of Agriculture, will be among the voices tea party leaders rely on to reach out to minorities at a special rally in Philadelphia today. "Uni-Tea" kicks off this afternoon with speeches from several prominent African American conservatives as well as the trouble-making founder of Breitbart.com and BigGovernment.

Event co-organizer Jeffrey Weingarten, a tea partier from Morristown, NJ, told TPM yesterday he expects the event to draw crowds of multi-ethnic faces not generally seen at normal tea party events. The goal of the rally is to show off the movement's diversity on stage while drawing demographics not usually associated with the tea party into the movement.

"I hope people will be surprised," Weingarten said. "From our point of view, if there was just one other than white face [in the crowd] it would be surprising. From the point of view of the outside, a decent percentage of other than white faces would be a surprise also."

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Topics: Andrew Breitbart, Tea Party, Uni-Tea

AZ-SEN

New McCain Ad Slams Obama On Border Security (VIDEO)


President Obama and Sen. John McCain (R-AZ).

Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) has a new ad for his August 24 Republican primary -- looking right past his opponent, former Rep. J.D. Hayworth, and taking on his major nemesis, President Obama, the man who defeated him in the 2008 presidential election and remains a great bogeyman for the GOP base.

"The border security of Senators McCain and Kyl calls for 3,000 additional troops to keep us safe. President Obama says he'll send -- 524," the announcer says. "This is no political game, Mr. President. It's about Arizona lives. It's a fight we must win. And with John McCain on our side, we will."

The TPM Poll Average gives McCain a lead of 53.6%-32.1% over Hayworth.

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Topics: 2010 elections, AZ-SEN, Arizona, Barack Obama, Immigration, J.D. Hayworth, John McCain, Senate '10

FL-GOV

Court Sides With Rick Scott: McCollum Won't Get State Matching Funds In FL-GOV Race


Rick Scott

Rick Scott -- the extremely wealthy frontrunner in Florida's Republican gubernatorial primary -- scored a major victory today, when a federal appeals court ruled that his primary opponent, state Attorney General Bill McCollum, can't get a dollar-for-dollar match from the state when Scott exceeds Florida's campaign spending cap.

State law allows McCollum to get a match from the state for every dollar Scott spends over $24.9 million. Scott had argued that the law significantly chilled his First Amendment rights by forcing him to slow his spending. A lower court had rejected Scott's attempt to block the public financing law, but today a federal appeals court overturned the earlier ruling.

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Topics: Bill McCollum, FL-GOV, Rick Scott

MN-GOV

Target Faces Backlash For Supporting Tom Emmer In Post-Citizens United World


MN Gov. candidate Tom Emmer (R) and the logo of the Target Corp.

The Citizens United case opened the door for corporations to directly spend big money on political campaigns -- and now the Target company is finding that actually doing so is posing a risk in its home state of Minnesota, where the company is supporting Republican Tom Emmer for governor and facing a backlash from the LGBT community.

Target donated $150,000 to a group called MN Forward, a pro-business group backed by the state Chamber of Commerce, and which is actively supporting the very conservative Emmer. As a result, they've come under fire from gay rights organizations, due to Emmer's support for a proposed state constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage, and his close associations with the religious right.

"This is inconsistent with their values to support the only candidate for governor who stands up for discrimination and divisiveness in Minnesota," said Monica Meyer, interim executive director of OutFront Minnesota.

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Topics: 2010 elections, MN-GOV, Tom Emmer

LA-SEN

Vitter Seeks Key Law Enforcement Endorsement


Senator David Vitter (R-LA)

Notwithstanding his 2007 prostitute scandal and a more recent controversy surrounding his retention of a top aide who attacked his girlfriend with a knife, Sen. David Vitter (R-LA) is seeking the endorsement of the Louisiana Sheriffs' Association.

"I write to request that you support a Louisiana Sheriffs' Association endorsement of me for the U.S. Senate at your conference in Destin next week," writes Vitter in letters he sent to Sheriff's around the state, obtained by TPMDC. "I have worked hard to earn your support in a number of ways."

Among his pitches, Vitter notes, "Just recently, for example, I strongly opposed and helped defeat attempts to impose mandatory collective bargaining on your departments. This was included in a U.S. House-passed bill, which received the support and vote of my opponent Congressman [Charlie] Melancon."

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Topics: Charlie Melancon, David Vitter, LA-SEN

Sunday Shows

The Sunday Show Line-Ups


Adm. Mike Mullen, chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, and Secretary of Defense Robert Gates

Here are the line-ups for the Sunday talk shows this weekend:

ABC, This Week: Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), Secretary of Defense Robert Gates.

CBS, Face The Nation: Chairman Of The Joint Chiefs Of Staff Adm. Mike Mullen, Council On Foreign Relations president Richard Haass, Senate Minority Whip Jon Kyl (R-AZ), Mexican American Legal Defense And Education Fund president Thomas Saenz.

CNN, State Of The Union: Sen. Carl Levin (D-MI), Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC).

Fox News Sunday: Former Gov. Sarah Palin (R-AK), Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY), House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-OH).

NBC, Meet The Press: Chairman Of The Joint Chiefs Of Staff Adm. Mike Mullen, New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg (I), former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, Gov. Ed Rendell (D-PA).

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Topics: Alan Greenspan, Carl Levin, Ed Rendell, John Boehner, Jon Kyl, Lindsey Graham, Mike Bloomberg, Mike Mullen, Mitch McConnell, Robert Gates, Sunday Shows

Don't Ask, Don't Tell

Family Research Council Suggests DADT Keeps Soldiers From Getting HIV


A gay veteran and the president of the Family Research Council, Tony Perkins.

In its bid to block the repeal of Don't Ask, Don't Tell, the Family Research Council is arguing that soldiers could get HIV if gay men and lesbians are allowed to serve openly -- and that kids might read porn instead of the Bible. In a 98-minute Webcast caught by the LGBT POV blog, FRC's Tony Perkins promised to explain, "How the military is being used to advance a radical agenda."

Perkins began the webcast (watch it in full below) with a warning: "What you will see and hear tonight may enrage you." The broadcast included Oliver North, Sen. Jim Inhofe (R-OK) and Rep. Todd Akin (R-MO). FRC has been campaigning adamantly against the repeal of the Clinton-era ban on gays in the military.

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Topics: 2010 elections, Don't Ask, Don't Tell, Family Research Council, Gay Rights, Tony Perkins

FL-SEN

Kendrick Meek Rips FL-SEN Dem Opponent Greene In New Attack Ad (VIDEO)


Rep. Kendrick Meek (D-FL)

Just days after Kendrick Meek took to the airwaves with his first TV ad in Florida's Democratic Senate primary, he's back with another hard-hitting spot. Like his first ad, which came out Monday, Meek's latest effort goes for the throat of billionaire opponent Jeff Greene, who's depicted in the ad as a big spender running a dishonest campaign. "Jeff Greene can buy anything," the ad begins, "except the truth."

The line's not only a populist zinger, but also a nod to Greene's financial advantage in the race, which until this week had enabled him to blanket the state with TV spots that Meek's campaign couldn't afford to answer. The Meek campaign -- which on Wednesday claimed to have earned the financial backing of national Democratic party organizations -- has not yet disclosed the scope of its latest ad buy. But since Monday, when Meek's first ad went on the air, the Greene campaign has already struck back with two new spots, both mudslingers that accuse Meek of corruption.

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Topics: 2010 elections, FL-SEN, Jeff Greene, Kendrick Meek

Marijuana

Senate Can't Pass Tax Cuts, But It Can Raise Penalties On Pot Brownies

If you thought that the Republican filibuster of the tax-cutting small business bill meant that the Senate didn't have a particularly productive day Thusday, you'd be wrong. In fact, the Senate authorized the issuance of a conservation stamp, created Polycystic Kidney Disease Awareness Week, gave a little money to the Patent and Trademark office and, oh yeah, doubled the penalties for making pot brownies. Yes, the same week that Congress significantly reduced the racially-charged crack-powder sentencing disparity, they also voted to create one between pot brownies and dime bags.

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Topics: Dianne Feinstein, Marijuana, Medical marijuana

KY-SEN

D'oh! The Man Who Let Rand Paul Talk To Maddow Speaks (VIDEO)


KY Sen. candidate Rand Paul (R)

Former Rand Paul campaign manager David Adams -- who sauntered off into the sunset after Paul's epic national implosion in the days after he won the Republican nomination for Senate in Kentucky -- is defending his decision to allow Paul to hoist himself on his own libertarianism in that infamous Maddow interview.

In a recent interview with liberal Kentucky blogger Barefoot and Progressive, Adams says he sat in the room watching while Paul spent 18 minutes sputtering through a discussion of the 1964 Civil Rights Act -- but that he thinks the end result was not that bad for Paul. Besides, he says, if Paul was going to catch flack for his views on property rights as they apply to civil rights, there was nothing Adams as campaign manager could do about it.

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Topics: KY-SEN, Randall Terry

Ethics

GOP Hurt By Anti 'Swamp' Campaign In '06 Aims To Turn Tables In '10 With Rangel Charges


Speaker Nancy Pelsoi, Rep. Charlie Rangel (D-NY) and House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-MD)

Prepare for Charlie Rangel to become a household name during the fall campaigns, political operatives from both parties are saying. The Republican plan for August, according to aides TPM spoke with this week, is to tie the party to Rangel and the fact he was charged with 13 violations yesterday. The GOP says it's only fair game, since the Democrats in 2006 ran on Speaker Nancy Pelosi's pledge to "drain the swamp" and tried to link all of the Republican candidates with disgraced former Majority Leader Tom DeLay (R-TX).

Republicans are tickled pink that a spotlight is shining on Rangel (D-NY) just as the campaign season kicks into high gear, and campaign operatives are advising GOP candidates across the country to try and nationalize his ethics charges and get Democrats to defend him. Vulnerable House Democrats are feeling the squeeze, and Republicans are digging up their 2006 statements accusing the GOP leadership of fostering a culture of corruption. The looming midterms are one reason House Democrats had been urging Rangel behind-the-scenes to cut a deal, and why Republicans are saying he missed his window.

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Topics: Charlie Rangel, Ethics, House Democrats, House Republicans

MI-GOV

Poll: Tuesday's Michigan GOP Gov Primary Still A Toss-Up


Michigan Attorney General Mike Cox (R), Rick Snyder (R), and Rep. Pete Hoekstra (R), candidates in Michigan's Republican gubernatorial primary

Michigan's Republican gubernatorial primary is this Tuesday, and a new poll shows the top three GOP contenders in a tight race that will come down to the wire. Today's EPIC-MRA poll shows businessman Rick Snyder, Rep. Pete Hoekstra, and state Attorney General Mike Cox in a statistical tie: Snyder has 26%, Cox has 24%, and Hoekstra has 23% -- all in a poll with a 4.9% margin of error. Trailing the pack are Mike Bouchard with 10% and state Sen. Tom George with 1%.

EPIC-MRA's past poll of the race from mid-June had Cox out in front with 26%, followed by Hoekstra with 24% and Snyder with 20%. Since June, surveys from other pollsters have shown each of the three top candidates in first place.

The TPM Poll Average gives Cox 22.6%, Hoekstra 22.3%, Snyder 19.9%, Bouchard 11.2%, and George 1.5%.

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Topics: 2010 elections, MI-GOV, Mike Cox, Pete Hoekstra, Polls, Rick Snyder

CT-SEN

Peter Schiff Ad: Linda McMahon's 'Liberal' Positions Are A Kick In The... (VIDEO)


A new ad from US Sen. candidate Peter Schiff (R-CT) attacking fellow Sen. candidate Linda McMahon (R-CT)

Peter Schiff, a financial commentator and pro-Ron Paul activist running in the Republican Senate primary in Connecticut, is now attempting to broadcast a truly amazing and entertaining attack ad against the frontrunner in the primary, former World Wrestling Entertainment CEO Linda McMahon.

"Liberal Linda McMahon has kicked Republicans for years," the announcer says -- followed by old WWE video of McMahon, playing a fictionalized version of herself, kicking a man in the groin. The announcer then discusses McMahon's various sins, such as donating to Democrats, attending the 2008 Dem convention, and supporting bailouts -- followed each time by video of that kick.

The ad is not on TV, but Schiff is now trying to raise money to get it on the air -- and in fact, he has enlisted the help of Ron Paul's son, Kentucky Republican Senate nominee Rand Paul, in the effort. The TPM Poll Average for the primary shows McMahon with 43.4%, following by 29.6% for former Congressman Simmons -- who just jumped back into the race after suspending his campaign in late May -- plus 10.0% for Schiff. The Republican primary will be held on August 10.

One question about this ad: In the current economic and political environment, wouldn't the visual of a woman delivering a crotch-kick to a man wearing a business suit actually help McMahon's popularity?

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Topics: 2010 elections, CT-SEN, Linda McMahon, Peter Schiff, Rand Paul, Senate '10

Jon Kyl

Republicans Go Easy On Arizona Judge Who Struck Down Immigration Law


Senator Jon Kyl (R-AZ)

Republicans are fuming about a Wednesday ruling in Arizona's federal district court striking down the most controversial provisions of the state's recently enacted immigration statute. No longer will state police be allowed to detain people who they suspect to be illegal immigrants -- effectively nullifying the law, which had fired up the GOP's far-right base and enjoys plenty of support in Arizona. But the judge who issued the decision has enjoyed Republican support throughout her career, and thus her critics on the Hill don't go so far as to call the decision an example of activist judging.

"She didn't overturn the law," said Sen. Jon Kyl (R-AZ), the second highest ranking Republican in the Senate. "She said that portions of it -- the bulk of it -- needed to be enjoined because of her view that it was pre-empted by federal law because it created undue additional burdens on the federal government. This judge is not an activist judge. She had to make a decision. She made a decision. I don't happen to agree with it, but she's not an activist."

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Topics: Arizona, Bill Clinton, Dan Lungren, Immigration, John McCain, Jon Kyl, Republicans

AZ-SEN

Hayworth Ad: McCain Supported Amnesty -- And Voted Against Medicare Drug Benefit (VIDEO)


A new ad from Sen. candidate J.D. Hayworth (R-AZ) attacking Sen. John McCain (R-AZ).

Former Rep. J.D. Hayworth (R-AZ) has a new TV ad in his Republican primary challenge against Sen. John McCain. The ad continues Hayworth's attacks against McCain over illegal immigration -- and interestingly enough, the Tea Partying Hayworth also blasts McCain for voting against a social welfare entitlement program, the Medicare Part D prescription drug benefit.

"McCain wrote the amnesty bill; opposed the border fence; voted against border security funding," the announcer says. "And, McCain voted against the Medicare prescription drug program for seniors, but allowed illegal aliens to get Social Security and Medicare -- even if they committed fraud."

The TPM Poll Average gives McCain a lead of 53.6%-32.1%. The Republican primary will be held on August 24.

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Topics: 2010 elections, AZ-SEN, J.D. Hayworth, John McCain, Senate '10

WA-SEN

Rasmussen Poll: Dem Murray Pulls Ahead of GOPers In WA-SEN Race


WA Sen. candidate Dino Rossi (R) and Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA)

Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA) is pulling ahead of her potential Republican challengers in the Washington Senate race, according to a new Rasmussen survey. Against former gubernatorial candidate Dino Rossi (R), the frontrunner in the GOP primary, Murray leads 49%-47%. She's also ahead of former pro football player (and Sarah Palin favorite) Clint Didier 48%-45%, and businessman Paul Akers 48%-42%.

When Rasmussen surveyed the race two weeks ago, they found Murray downagainst both Rossi and Didier, who both led 48%-45%. Murray had been ahead of Akers 46%-41%.

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Topics: 2010 elections, Clint Didier, Dino Rossi, Patty Murray, Paul Akers, Polls, WA-SEN

Jim Traficant

It's Not Over Til It's Over: Traficant Files Appeal


Former Congressman James Traficant (D-OH)

It was with a heavy heart when we told you that former Rep. Jim Traficant (D-OH), released last year from prison, was denied a position on the ballot for his old House seat.

But don't count Jim out quite yet. Traficant's allies yesterday filed an appeal, according to the Youngstown Vindicator. They're arguing that the elections boards that rejected his petition used "vastly overly stringent standards" when determining which signatures were valid.

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Topics: Jim Traficant

NV-GOV

GOPer Sandoval Takes Heat For Reportedly Saying His Kids Don't Look Hispanic


Nevada Gov. candidate Brian Sandoval (R)

Brian Sandoval, the Republican nominee for governor in Nevada, is coming under fire for reportedly saying in an interview with Univision that he's not worried about his own children being asked for their papers in neighboring Arizona -- because his children don't look Hispanic. Sandoval has not acknowledged making the statement, but he has apologized just in case he did.

The gaffe was first announced by Adriana Arévalo, the news director for Univision Nevada, in a scathing column in the Spanish-language newspaper El Tiempo. If elected, Sandoval would be Nevada's first Hispanic governor. He currently has a lead of 53.4%-36.9% over Democratic nominee Rory Reid in the TPM Poll Average.

Univision has declined to release a full tape of the interview, on the grounds that it is their own work product.

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Topics: 2010 elections, Brian Sandoval, NV-GOV

Anthony Weiner

Peter King And Anthony Weiner Shout Their Way Through A Fox News Interview (VIDEO)


Rep. Peter King (R-NY) and Rep. Anthony Weiner (D-NY)

Rep. Anthony Weiner (D-NY) went on an apoplectic rant on the House floor last night, and apparently he hasn't cooled off much since then.

Earlier this morning, Weiner and Rep. Peter King (R-NY) shouted and finger-pointed their way through a Fox News interview over a bill that would provide health care to rescue workers effected by the dust from the World Trade Center, which failed in the House last night.

King accused the Democrats of orchestrating a "cruel hoax" with the bill, while Weiner called it "outrageous" that Republicans would vote against it.

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Topics: 9/11, Anthony Weiner, Fox News, Health Care, Peter King

PA-SEN

Rasmussen Poll: Toomey Up Six Over Sestak In PA Senate Race


Rep. Joe Sestak (D-PA) and former Rep. Pat Toomey (R-PA)

A new Rasmussen poll of the Pennsylvania Senate race finds former Rep. Pat Toomey (R) out in front against Democratic Rep. Joe Sestak in a race that some polls have shown to be a dead heat. Rasmussen puts Toomey up 45%-39%, a margin comparable to that from Rasmussen's poll of the race from two weeks ago, which gave Toomey a 45%-38% lead.

Other polls have depicted a much tighter race. A July 11 Quinnipiac poll showed Toomey and Sestak neck-and-neck with 43% each, and a PPP poll from June 21 showed both candidates with 41%. Each Rasmussen poll since June, however, has given Toomey a six- or seven-point edge.

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Topics: 2010 elections, Joe Sestak, PA-SEN, Pat Toomey, Polls

Tea Party Express

Tea Party Patriots: Seriously, That Whole Mark Williams Thing Ended Up Being Good For Us

Not even the epic fail of former Tea Party Express chairman/spokesman Mark Williams can slow the tea party movement on it's path to world domination. At least that's what tea partiers tell me.

As we reach the one-week anniversary of Williams' resignation from the TPE after a racist blog post he wrote caused a firestorm both inside the tea party movement and out, movement leaders say they've shaken off Williams and moved on -- if they'll talk about him at all.

"Isn't it weird how these things turn out?" said Shelby Blakely, a member of the Tea Party Patriots National Leadership Council and executive director of the group's online publication, the New Patriot Journal. Blakely said that, ironically, Williams has helped the tea party movement by leading to the public shaming of the TPE, which the Tea Party Patriots have long viewed as an impostor to the cause.

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Topics: Tea Party, Tea Party Express

FL-GOV

Quinnipiac Poll: GOPers Just Barely Ahead Of Dem In Florida Gov Race


Florida Gov. candidates Bill McCollum (R), Alex Sink (D) and Rick Scott (R).

Today's Quinnipiac poll of the Florida governor's race shows both potential Republican nominees edging out Democrat Alex Sink. Republican businessman Rick Scott, the frontrunner in the GOP primary, leads Sink 29%-27%, with Independent Bud Chiles grabbing 14%. In a separate matchup, Republican state Attorney General Bill McCollum narrowly leads Sink 27%-26%, while Chiles takes third, again with 14%.

Quinnipiac's new numbers show a big improvement for Sink since its last survey, on June 7, which showed Sink down nine against Scott and down eight against McCollum.

A July 18 PPP poll showed Sink ahead of Scott and McCollum by six and 14 points respectively, and a July 11 Reuters/Ipsos survey showed Scott leading Sink 34%-31% but Sink edging McCollum 31%-30%.

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Topics: 2010 elections, Alex Sink, Bill McCollum, Bud Chiles, FL-GOV, Polls, Rick Scott

Jobs

Say What?! Republicans Filibuster Tax-Cutting Jobs Bill


Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY)

All 41 Senate Republicans yesterday filibustered a jobs package comprised largely of tax cuts.

You read that right. Republicans filibustered tax cuts.

By the GOP's own admission, the underlying legislation has broad bipartisan support. It would create a $30 billion Treasury-backed fund to help community banks issue loans to small businesses and provide entrepreneurs with $12 billion in tax cuts -- a Republican kind of bill if ever there was one.

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Topics: Filibuster, Harry Reid, Jobs, Mitch McConnell, Republicans, Senate, Tax Cuts

NV-SEN

Mason-Dixon Poll: Reid Clings To One-Point Lead Over Angle


Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV) and US Senate candidate Sharron Angle (R-NV)

The new Mason-Dixon poll of the Nevada Senate race gives Democratic Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid a one-point edge over Republican former state Rep. Sharron Angle -- and while this is in a sense good news for Reid, it also shows a potential recovery for Angle after some truly awful previous numbers.

The numbers: Reid 43%, Angle 42%. The survey of likely voters has a ±4% margin of error. In the previous Mason-Dixon poll from two weeks ago, though, Reid had an even stronger lead of 44%-37%, as a result of relentless attacks on Angle's right-wing positions and her steady stream of gaffes. The TPM Poll Average gives Reid a lead of 44.3%-42.6%.

"At least for the moment, she seems to have stopped the bleeding," Brad Coker of Mason-Dixon told the Las Vegas Review Journal, which commissioned the poll. "Reid had the airwaves to himself for a while, and he drove her numbers down with the advertising. But that didn't necessarily drive his numbers up. There hasn't been a lot of good news to hang his hat on."

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Topics: 2010 elections, Harry Reid, NV-SEN, Polls, Senate '10, Sharron Angle

FL-SEN

Quinnipiac Poll: Crist Still Leads Rubio In Florida Senate Race


Marco Rubio (R) and Gov. Charlie Christ (I), candidates for US Senate in Florida

Quinnipiac's out with new numbers from the Florida Senate race, and Independent Gov. Charlie Crist is still out in front. Against Republican Marco Rubio and Democrat Jeff Greene -- the frontrunner in the Democratic primary, according to a Quinnipiac poll released earlier this week -- Crist leads 37% to Rubio's 32% and Greene's 17%. When the Democrat in the race is Rep. Kendrick Meek, Crist does a little better, polling at 39% to Rubio's 33% and Meek's 13%.

That's not much different than Quinnipiac's last poll of the race from June 7, which showed Crist up seven points against Rubio when Greene's the Democrat, and Crist up four points against Rubio when Meek's the Democrat.

Today's numbers show a less competitive race than last week's Rasmussen survey, which showed Crist up only two against Rubio when the Democrat is Greene, and Rubio ahead two against Crist when the Democrat is Meek. The new Quinnipiac poll is more in line with a PPP survey from July 18, which gave Crist a 38%-29% edge over Rubio when Greene's in the race and a 35%-29% lead when Meek's in the race.

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Topics: 2010 elections, Charlie Crist, FL-SEN, Jeff Greene, Kendrick Meek, Marco Rubio, Polls

Roundup

TPMDC Morning Roundup

Axelrod to Democrats: Blame the GOP
White House Senior Adviser David Axelrod told Senate Democrats to go on offense against the Republicans in this November's election. "We're not interested in re-litigating the past but we don't want to relive it either," Axelrod said after a closed-door strategy session. "People need to know that when they cast that Republican vote they're casting that vote for those same discredited policies that punished the middle class and created this crisis in the first place."

Obama's Day Ahead
President Obama will depart from the White House at 9:30 a.m. ET, then will depart from Andrews Air Force Base at 9:45 a.m. ET, arriving at 11:05 a.m. ET in Detroit, Michigan. He will tour the Chrysler auto plant at 11:50 a.m. ET, and will deliver remarks at 12:15 p.m. ET. He will then tour the General Motors auto plant at 12:55 p.m. ET, and deliver remarks at 1:40 p.m. ET. He will depart from Detroit at 3:10 p.m. ET, arriving at Andrews Air Force Base at 4:25 p.m. ET, and at the White House at 4:40 p.m. ET.

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Topics: 2010 elections, Afghanistan, Arizona, Auto Industry, Barack Obama, Budget, China, Deficit, Immigration, Robert Gates, Roundup, WikiLeaks

Anthony Weiner

Anthony Weiner's Spitting Mad Rant Against Republicans On The House Floor (VIDEO)


Rep. Anthony Weiner (D-NY)

The House was debating a bill last night that would provide up to $7.4 billion in health care aid to rescue and recovery workers who have faced health problems since their work in the wake of the September 11 attacks. The bill ultimately failed to get the needed two-thirds majority, 255-159, and Rep. Anthony Weiner (D-NY) was not happy about it. Not one bit.

In a rant that lasted for almost two minutes, a hopping mad Weiner railed against "cowardly" Republicans who claimed they were voting against the bill because of "procedure." Weiner spat: "It's Republicans wrapping their arms around Republicans, rather than doing the right thing on behalf of the heroes!"

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Topics: 9/11, Anthony Weiner, Health Care

Immigration

No Citizenship For You! TPM Rounds Up The Anti-Immigration GOPers Targeting Birthright Citizenship


Clockwise from top: Rep. Louie Gohmert (R-TX), US Senate candidate J.D. Hayworth (R-AZ) and Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC)

Across the country, an out-there theme has been re-emerging among conservatives seeking to crack down on illegal immigration: End "birthright citizenship," a right based in the 14th Amendment, which leads to automatic citizenship for children born in the United States -- at least, end it as it applies to American-born children whose parents are here illegally.

Birthright citizenship in the 14th Amendment was intended, at least in part, to guarantee citizenship for freed slaves and otherwise secure legal equality: "All persons born or naturalized in the United States, and subject to the jurisdiction thereof, are citizens of the United States and of the state wherein they reside." Without the concept of birthright citizenship, it's possible for someone to be born without having citizenship in any country at all. Experts have told TPM that any plans to change that right are "clearly unconstitutional."

That's not stopping some right-wingers. Let's take a look at the list of conservatives who insist that birthright citizenship be done away with, either by constitutional amendment or (more often) by looking for a legislative loophole.

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Topics: 14th Amendment, Birthright citizenship, Immigration

2010 elections

Dem Rep Fires Aide After Distribution Of 'Jewish Money' List

Rep. Mike McMahon (D-NY) is in full-on damage control mode this evening after the New York Observer revealed that an aide to his reelection campaign attempted to highlight an opponent's out-of-district donor base with a list of donors entitled "Jewish Money Q2."

The basic summary of the situation, from the Observer piece: McMahon's finance director, who is Jewish, pored through the campaign finance reports from one of one of McMahon's Republican opponents, former FBI agent Mike Grimm, and compiled a list of donors to who she claimed are Jewish to showcase money raised Grimm raised from outside the Staten Island, New York district. A spokesperson for McMahon's campaign told the Observer the finance director labeled the donors Jewish because "she knows a lot of people in that community" and could, presumably, recognize their names.

"Where is Grimm's money coming from," Jennifer Nelson, McMahon's campaign communications director told the paper. "There is a lot of Jewish money, a lot of money from people in Florida and Manhattan, retirees."

The campaign provided "a list of over 80 names, a half-dozen of which in fact do hail from Staten Island, and a handful of others that list Brooklyn as home" on the "Grimm Jewish Money Q2" list provided to the Observer. Nelson "stressed" to the paper "that the point of compiling the list was not to show that Grimm had a lot of Jewish support, but that he had little support in the district."

Not surprisingly, that's not how Grimm saw it.

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Topics: 2010 elections, Mike Grimm, Mike McMahon, NY-13

2010 elections

Rasmussen Poll: Rory Reid Gaining On GOPer Sandoval In NV-GOV -- Lead Cut To 10


NV-GOV candidates Brian Sandoval (R) and Rory Reid (D)

A new Rasmussen poll of the Nevada governor's race shows Republican Brian Sandoval 10 points ahead of Democrat Rory Reid, but Reid appears to be gaining some ground. Sandoval's 50%-40% lead is narrower than the commanding 21-point lead he had in Rasmussen's previous poll from July 12.

Other recent polls have shown Reid -- the son of Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, who's also up for reelection in Nevada -- far behind Sandoval, a former federal judge. The last surveys of the contest from PPP and Mason-Dixon both showed Sandoval up 14 points.

The TPM Poll Average for the Nevada governor's race shows Sandoval with 53.4% and Reid with 36.9%. The margin of error for the latest Rasmussen survey is ±4.0 percentage points.

Check out TPMDC's full coverage of the race here.

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Topics: 2010 elections, Brian Sandoval, NV-GOV, Polls, Rory Reid

2010 elections

Dems Call On GOPers To Renounce Phyllis Schlafly Over Remarks About 'Unmarried Women' (AUDIO)


Conservative activist Phyllis Schlafly

Conservative activist Phyllis Schlafly took aim at "unmarried women" at a recent fundraiser and in an interview with TPM, saying that they overwhelmingly support President Obama and are all on welfare. Democrats aim to exploit the comments to pressure the more than 60 Republican candidates who have earned Schlafly's endorsement.

"Unmarried women, 70% of unmarried women, voted for Obama, and this is because when you kick your husband out, you've got to have big brother government to be your provider," said Schlafly, president of Eagle Forum and infamous for her opposition to the Equal Rights Amendment.

A liberal organization recorded the Schlafly comments at a Troy, Michigan fundraiser Saturday for a Republican congressional candidate, the Detroit Free Press reported. In an interview with TPM this afternoon Schlafly stood by her comments and said Obama is trying to boost welfare rolls to help with his reelection and to help Democrats.

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Topics: 2010 elections, DCCC, DSCC, Eagle Forum, Phyllis Schlafly

Immigration

Lindsey Graham: Birthright Citizenship Is A Mistake (VIDEO)


Sen. Lindsay Graham (R-SC)

Is Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) starting to step away from his image as a relative GOP moderate? He's now calling for a constitutional amendment to end birthright citizenship for the children of illegal immigrants, an idea that has become a cause célèbre on the right.

"But there's another problem we have in this nation that I think is novel and needs to be fixed. If you come across the border illegally and you have a child in America, automatically, that child becomes an American citizen. Under the 14th Amendment, three court cases says there's a constitutional right to that," Graham said in an appearance Wednesday on Greta Van Susteren's show.

He also added: "But I may introduce a constitutional amendment that changes the rules if you have a child here. Birthright citizenship I think is a mistake, that we should change our Constitution and say if you come here illegally and you have a child, that child's automatically not a citizen."

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Topics: 14th Amendment, Birthright citizenship, Immigration, Lindsey Graham

WA-SEN

Report: Jim DeMint Backs Dino Rossi In WA-SEN


US Senate candidate Dino Rossi (R-WA)

Shunning the man Sarah Palin endorsed to be the next Senator from Washington state -- tea party favorite Clint Didier (R) -- Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC) has decided to back the national party's choice in the race, former gubernatorial nominee Dino Rossi (R).

The Washington Post previews tomorrow's announcement:

"When I met with Dino a couple months ago, he made it clear he was only interested in running if Republicans were serious about saving our country from fiscal collapse," DeMint will say in announcing the endorsement. "I've studied his record and his positions on the key issues, and it's clear that he will stand up to the establishment in both parties."

DeMint's backing gives Rossi some of the conservative cred he needs to keep Didier and his supporters at bay. But it also gives him a connection with the tea party side of the GOP that might not sit well with general election voters in the blue state. But in the short-term, DeMint's backing probably means a big new revenue stream for Rossi, who needs to raise a lot of money fast if he wants to eliminate Sen. Patty Murray's (D) cash advantage.

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Topics: Dino Rossi, Jim DeMint, WA-SEN

WI-SEN

Rasmussen Poll: GOPer Ron Johnson Leads Feingold By 2 In WI-SEN


Senator Russ Feingold (D-WI) and Senate candidate Ron Johnson (R-WI)

A new Rasmussen poll of the Wisconsin Senate race shows incumbent Democratic Sen. Russ Feingold trailing Republican Ron Johnson, the frontrunner in the September 14 GOP Senate primary. The poll gives Johnson a narrow 48%-46% lead.

Recent polling has also shown the race to be tight. A Rasmussen survey from two weeks ago put Johnson ahead by one point, while a Magellan survey from July 12 showed Feingold up two.

Against Republican Dave Westlake, a long shot for the Republican nomination, Feingold fares better. The latest Rasmussen survey shows the Democrat leading Westlake 49%-39%.

The TPM Poll Average now gives Johnson a 48.5%-46.4% edge over Feingold, who in turn is up 48.3%-39.1% over Westlake. The margin of error for the latest Rasmussen survey is ±4.0 percentage points.

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Topics: 2010 elections, Polls, Ron Johnson, Russ Feingold, WI-SEN

2010 elections

Obama To Headline House Dems' Fundraiser As Some Grumble He's More Likely To Help The Senate


President Obama, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), and Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV)

President Obama will head to Los Angeles next month for a major fundraiser to help House Democrats, gearing up his political activity with less than 100 days to go before the fall midterm elections.

Over the last few days, Democratic political operatives at press events and on calls with supporters have pointedly said they've "noticed" that Obama has gotten more aggressive and helpful in recent weeks. It might have something to do with a dust-up between Speaker Nancy Pelosi and White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs earlier this month over how likely it is the Republicans have a chance at seizing control of Congress in November.

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Topics: 2010 elections, Barack Obama, DCCC, Fundraising, House Democrats, Nancy Pelosi

CA-GOV

PPP Poll: CA Now Prefers Gray Davis Over Arnold (And Still Loves Ballot Initiatives)


Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R-CA) and former Gov. Gray Davis (D-CA)

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R-CA), who ousted Democratic Gov. Gray Davis in a stunning 2003 recall election, has now suffered all the natural consequences of actually being governor of California -- in fact, he's so unpopular that voters might actually prefer having Gray Davis back. But beyond that, the state's systemic problems that have ruined the both of them are here to stay.

The new survey by Public Policy Polling (D) gives Arnold an approval rating of only 19%, with a whopping 71% disapproval. By contrast, Gray Davis's personal favorable rating is a much healthier (but still awful) 32%, with an unfavorable rating of 44%. Respondents were asked: "Who would you rather have as Governor now, Arnold Schwarzenegger or Gray Davis?" The answer turned out to be Davis 44%, Schwarzenegger 38%. The survey of registered voters has a ±3.95% margin of error.

This same batch of polling also gave Democratic former Governor and current state Attorney General Jerry Brown a 46%-40% lead over Republican former eBay CEO Meg Whitman -- the same six-point margin between Davis and Schwarzenegger. PPP's Tom Jensen writes: "The Davis/Schwarzenegger breakdown is actually a pretty good proxy for this year's Governor's race. Voters in the state don't like Jerry Brown (or Davis) but they like Whitman (or Schwarzenegger) even less and that drives a Democratic lead."

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Topics: 2010 elections, Arnold Schwarzenegger, CA-GOV, Gray Davis, Polls

SC-SEN

Alvin Greene Splits With L.A. Consulting Firm -- After Less Than A Week


Alvin Greene

That didn't take long.

The Warren Group, a Los Angeles-based consulting group that was working for Democratic nominee Alvin Greene's campaign for senator of South Carolina, announced yesterday that they are leaving the campaign, after less than a week.

Donna Warren, who started the group, cited the company's location in Los Angeles as the reason for its departure.

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Topics: Alvin Greene, SC-SEN

Immigration

Jan Brewer On Immigration Setback: Send Money So We Can Keep 'Fighting For America' (VIDEO)


Jan Brewer

Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer has said she's disappointed that a federal judge blocked portions of her state's new immigration law but she's using the setback to raise money for her effort to fight the Obama administration.

Appearing last night on Fox News' Hannity, Brewer (R) said she's been encouraged by the support from her home state and across the country as supporters of her efforts send money and kind notes about what she's done. Meanwhile, opponents of the law have used it as a rallying cry to fight for a comprehensive immigration reform measure in Congress.

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Topics: 2010 elections, Arizona, Immigration, Jan Brewer, Sean Hannity

NV-SEN

Report: Angle Gave 20% Of Campaign Cash To Notoriously Shady Firm Base Connect


NV Senate candidate Sharron Angle (R)

It turns out that Nevada Republican Senate nominee Sharron Angle has retained the services of a very interesting firm for her fundraising: Base Connect, the shady Republican fundraising firm formerly known as BMW Direct.

As TPM alum Justin Elliott reports over at Salon, Angle's campaign has spent more than $600,000 for Base Connect's services -- amounting to more than 20% of her total fundraising. Jon Ralston adds to the discussion, noting that Angle's new communications director Jordan Gehrke is himself a former representative for Base Connect.

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Topics: 2010 elections, Base Connect, Fundraising, NV-SEN, Senate '10, Sharron Angle

AZ-SEN

Hayworth: Pregnant Women Are Flying Here So Their Kids Can Be Citizens! (VIDEO)


Former Rep. J.D. Hayworth (R-AZ)

Former Rep. J.D. Hayworth (R-AZ), who is challenging Sen. John McCain in the August 24 primary, has explained another reason to repeal birthright citizenship for all people born in the United States: That "birth tourism" is resulting in people around the world timing their pregnancies so that births coincide with visits to America.

During an appearance this morning on MSNBC, Hayworth said: "It's not exclusive to our neighbors to the south, from Mexico. Many families around the world in the jet age are timing the gestation period to come to the United States, to have the blessed event here, so that the new birthright citizen will have access to a phalanx of American benefits, courtesy of you and me and other American taxpayers."

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Topics: 14th Amendment, 2010 elections, AZ-SEN, Birthright citizenship, Immigration, J.D. Hayworth, Senate '10

Health Care

Opposition To Health Care Law Sinking


President Barack Obama

Opposition to health care reform continues to fall, though opponents are increasingly of the view that the bill should be repealed, according to a new poll conducted by the Kaiser Family Foundation.

A survey of 1504 adults, including 406 Medicare-eligible seniors finds that 50 percent hold favorable views of the new health care law, while only 35 hold unfavorable views. Back in June, the same poll found that 41 percent viewed the law unfavorably, and going back two more months, the unfavorable numbers were never below 40.

Those surveyed were asked:

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Topics: Barack Obama, Democrats, Health Care

TN-GOV

Colbert Lampoons TN Lt. Gov. Ron Ramsey For Calling Islam A Cult (VIDEO)

TPM reported this week on Tennessee Republican gubernatorial candidate and Lt. Gov. Ron Ramsey, who described Islam as a "cult" that may not count when it comes to religious freedom.

On his show last night, Stephen Colbert took a look at the Tennessee Republican primary race, and was taken aback by Ramsey's comments: "Yes. He just called Islam, the world's second largest religion, 1.5 billion people, a cult."

"Him, not me," Colbert was careful to clarify. "I believe Islam is the one great and true cult, praise be to Allah and the Nikes he wears. All glory and honor to the comet that hides his spaceship."

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Topics: Stephen Colbert, TN-GOV

MO-SEN

Rasmussen Poll: Roy Blunt Up 6 In Missouri Senate Race


Missouri Sec. of State Robin Carnahan (D) and Rep. Roy Blunt (R-MO)

Republican Roy Blunt still leads Democrat Robin Carnahan in the Missouri Senate race, according to the latest Rasmussen survey, which puts his lead at six points. Rep. Blunt -- the frontrunner in next Tuesday's GOP primary and the preferred Republican candidate of Michele Bachmann and Joe the Plumber -- leads Carnahan 49%-43% in the general election.

Those numbers are more favorable to Blunt than Rasmussen's last poll, which showed the Republican up only two points, but they're comparable to a Mason-Dixon poll from July 21, which showed Blunt ahead 48%-42%.

The TPM Poll Average for the race shows Blunt leading Carnahan 48.1%-43.2%. The margin of error for the latest Rasmussen survey is ±4.0 percentage points.

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Topics: 2010 elections, MO-SEN, Polls, Robin Carnahan, Roy Blunt

CO-SEN

Poll: Bennet Narrowly Leads Romanoff In CO-SEN Dem Primary


Sen. Michael Bennet (D-CO) and Democratic primary challenger Andrew Romanoff

A new poll from Zata3 shows a tight race in the Colorado Democratic Senate primary, with appointed incumbent Sen. Michael Bennet having only a narrow lead over former state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff.

The numbers: Bennet 44%, Romanoff 40%. The survey of likely voters has a ±3.6% margin of error, and there is no prior Zata3 poll for direct comparison. The TPM Poll Average gives Bennet a lead of 45.7%-35.3%. The primary will be held on August 10.

There is a caveat here. As the Colorado Pols blog points out, Zata3 has not normally been a polling firm: "You hire Zata3 to do persuasion phone calls or text messaging -- not polling -- just like you wouldn't normally hire a polling firm to do your direct mail. This is no knock on Zata3, it's just that it seems odd that you wouldn't use a professional polling firm if you wanted real polling results."

That said, they sure do seem to be branching out, with surveys such as this one and a recent poll of the Arkansas Senate race.

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Topics: 2010 elections, Andrew Romanoff, CO-SEN, Michael Bennet, Polls, Senate '10

KY-SEN

Rand Paul: Controversial Mountaintop Removal Coal Mining Isn't So Bad -- It Enhances The Land!


A mountaintop removal and Senate candidate Rand Paul (R-KY)

In a wide-ranging profile due out in next month's issue of Details, Kentucky's Republican nominee for Senate, Rand Paul, stands up for all the good things the controversial practice of mountain top-removal mining can do for the environment. Despite warnings from conservationists that blowing the tops off of mountains to get the precious, precious coal underneath can have a seriously negative impact on the surrounding land, Paul says that when you really stop to think about it, losing those mountain tops is actually a net positive.

From the lengthy article, which was reported before Paul shunned the national press:

Paul believes mountaintop removal just needs a little rebranding. "I think they should name it something better," he says. "The top ends up flatter, but we're not talking about Mount Everest. We're talking about these little knobby hills that are everywhere out here. And I've seen the reclaimed lands. One of them is 800 acres, with a sports complex on it, elk roaming, covered in grass." Most people, he continues, "would say the land is of enhanced value, because now you can build on it."

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Topics: KY-SEN, Rand Paul

FL-SEN

Quinnipiac Poll: Greene Takes Big Lead Over Meek In FL-SEN Dem Primary


FL Democratic Senate candidates Kendrick Meek and Jeff Greene

Quinnipiac's out with new numbers from the Florida Democratic Senate primary, and they show businessman Jeff Greene taking the lead. Although "undecided" beat out all three candidates vying for the nomination -- something that isn't new for this race -- Greene leads the pack with 33%. Rep. Kendrick Meek is at 23%, and former Miami Mayor Maurice Ferre trails with 4%.

These Quinnipiac numbers are the first to show a clear leader in the race. A PPP poll from July 18 put Meek just ahead of Greene 28%-25%, and a Quinnipiac survey from June similarly showed Meek edging Green 29%-27%.

Both Greene and Meek are polling well behind the race's other two big-name candidates: Gov. Charlie Crist (I) and tea party favorite Marco Rubio (R).

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Topics: 2010 elections, FL-SEN, Jeff Greene, Kendrick Meek, Maurice Ferre, Polls

2010 elections

'Speaker Boehner'? Republicans Sell Access In Hopes Of Winning Back House


House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-OH) with Speaker Nancy Pelosi in the background (D-CA)

House Republicans are attempting to nationalize the fall elections in hopes of winning back control of the chamber, with a new effort to raise money called Boehner for Speaker. House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-OH) has a lot at stake in November, and he's going all-in.

Donors giving big bucks or helping to raise at least $100,000 for the National Republican Congressional Committee will get "meetings with Boehner, calls from senior aides with updates on the campaign and 'VIP access to all events, including roundtables, briefings, breakout discussions and interactive panel discussions," according to Politico, which obtained some materials Boehner's office was shopping around for the new campaign.

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Topics: 2010 elections, House Republicans, John Boehner, NRCC, Nancy Pelosi

Roundup

TPMDC Morning Roundup

Obama: 'I Draw Inspiration' From People Dealing With Tough Economy
In a taped appearance on The View, set to air today, President Obama discussed the continuing problems in the economy: "As much as you've been saying it's tough for me, the truth is, it's not tough for me. You know I've got pundits on the news who might say things, but what the American people have gone through -- losing jobs, seeing their home values go down, their 401ks declining -- those are the people that I draw inspiration from because I get letters every night from them and I read them."

Obama's Day Ahead
President Obama will deliver a major education reform speech at 10:05 a.m. ET, at the National Urban League 100th Anniversary Convention. He will meet at 11:10 a.m. ET with his national security team for his monthly meeting on Afghanistan and Pakistan. He will have lunch with Vice President Biden at 12:35 p.m. ET. He will receive the presidential daily briefing at 1:45 p.m. ET. He will sign the Tribal Law and Order Act at 4:50 p.m. ET. He will attend a Democratic National Committee fundraiser at 7:05 p.m. ET.

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Topics: 2010 elections, Afghanistan, Barack Obama, Bush Tax Cuts, House '10, James Clapper, Joe Biden, Roundup

FL-GOV

Quinnipiac Poll: Scott Leading McCollum By 11 In Florida's GOP Gov Primary


FL Republican Gov. candidates Bill McCollum and Rick Scott.

A new Quinnipiac poll of Florida's Republican gubernatorial primary shows wealthy businessman Rick Scott 11 points ahead of state Attorney General and establishment favorite Bill McCollum. The poll shows Scott, who's been ahead of McCollum in most polls since June, leading 43%-32%.

On Tuesday, McCollum's campaign released an internal polling memo showing McCollum down just six points against Scott. Scott's 11-point lead in the latest Quinnipiac poll is slightly less than his lead in a June 8 Quinnipiac survey, which put Scott at 44% and McCollum at 31%.

The TPM Poll Average for the August 24 primary shows Scott ahead 40.4%-31.2%. The margin of error for the latest Quinnipiac poll is ±3.6 percentage points.

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Topics: 2010 elections, Bill McCollum, FL-GOV, Polls, Rick Scott

BP's Gulf Coast Oil Spill Is Major Issue In ... Wisconsin Senate Race?


Sen. Russ Feingold (D-WI), US Sen. candidate Ron Johnson (R-WI) and the Deepwater Horizon explosion.

The BP oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico has definitely had far-reaching political consequences -- and by far-reaching, we mean it's become an issue at the other end of the country, all the way up north in Wisconsin, where Democratic Sen. Russ Feingold is running for a fourth term, and where Dems are hammering Republican businessman Ron Johnson over his ties to BP.

The TPM Poll Average for the race shows Feingold with only a narrow lead of 42.0%-40.4%, setting up a close race in a state that usually leans Democratic but where the races can also be hard-fought to the very end.

Indeed, Feingold has taken the unusual step for a progressive Democrat of touting the support he has received from conservative groups, due to his opposition to pork-barrel spending. And Feingold has also seized on the oil spill as a major issue against Johnson.

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Topics:

NH-SEN

Poll: GOPer Ayotte Leads Dem Hodes By 8 In NH Senate Race


Rep. Paul Hodes (D-NH)

The University of New Hampshire is out with some new polling (PDF) of the state's Senate race, and the numbers still don't look all that good for Democratic Rep. Paul Hodes. The new poll shows Republican Kelly Ayotte -- the frontrunner in the GOP primary -- leading Hodes 45%-37% among likely voters. Bill Binnie, another possible contender for the Republican nomination, also leads Hodes 41%-38%.

Still, there is some good news here for the Democrat -- the poll does show Hodes gaining ground on his likely Republican opponent. The university's last survey -- from April -- showed Ayotte leading Hodes 47%-32%.

A PPP poll released yesterday showed an even tighter race, with Hodes down only three points against Ayotte.

The TPM Poll Average of the race shows Ayotte with a 47.2%-37.9% lead over Hodes. The TPM Poll Average shows Binnie ahead of Hodes 45.2%-39.1%. The margin of error for the latest University of New Hampshire is ±4.6 percentage points. The primary is September 14.

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Topics: 2010 elections, Bill Binnie, Kelly Ayotte, NH-SEN, Paul Hodes, Polls

2010 elections

DNC Sends Cash To Campaign Committees And State Parties


President Barack Obama and DNC Chair Tim Kaine

The Democratic National Committee has transferred piles of cash from its campaign account to the Senate and House campaign committees and several states, investing big in hopes of retaining the party's seats and majorities during the November elections.

The DNC gave $833,333 to the Senate campaign arm the DSCC and $833,333 to the House campaign arm the DCCC. The DNC also gave $100,000 to the Maryland Democratic Party, $400,000 to the Florida Democratic Party and $333,333 to the Pennsylvania Democratic Party.

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Topics: 2010 elections, DNC, Fundraising, MD-Gov

TN-GOV

Fellow TN GOPers Shy Away From Lt. Gov's Muslim 'Cult' Comment, Dem Condemns It


TN Gov. candidate Mike McWherter (D)

The men running for the Tennessee Republican nomination for Governor don't seem particularly interested in discussing Lt. Gov. Ron Ramsey's recent remarks that freedom of religion might not apply to Islam because, maybe, it's a cult. The campaign of Knoxville Mayor Bill Haslam, the frontrunner in the contest, offered only a terse response to a question about Ramsey's quote from the Tennessean this morning. Ramsey's remarks have drawn fire from Tennessee Muslims, but so far his fellow Republicans have let the matter lie.

"The mayor's faith is very important to him, and he respects the right of others to practice their faith, so long as they are respectful of the communities in which they live and the laws of the land," a Haslam spokesperson told the paper.

Rep. Zack Wamp -- the man running just ahead of Ramsey in the primary fight, according to polls -- didn't respond to my request for comment on Ramsey's line at all.

The lone Democrat running for governor, businessman Mike McWherter, was a bit more forthcoming when I asked his campaign about Ramsey's remark.

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Topics: TN-GOV

Dick Durbin

Durbin Backs Filibuster Reform


Sen. Dick Durbin (D-IL)

The Senate's second highest ranking Democrat lent his support today to a growing effort, spearheaded by more junior members, to eliminate or diminish the power of the minority to enforce a 60 vote requirement on Senate business.

"I think there is a high level of frustration and a feeling that we missed many opportunities," Durbin told reporters this afternoon, in response to a question from TPMDC. "And also a lot of us have been completely worn down by a requirement of 60 votes on everything. This was rare when I got here 14 years ago and now it is rare otherwise".

Durbin used as an example one of his own initiatives, which was nearly killed by the supermajority requirement.

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Topics: Cloture, Dick Durbin, Filibuster, Filibuster Reform, GOP, Republicans, Senate

CA-Prop 19

Will California Legalize Pot? So Far, the Polling's Been Hazy


The state of California and a pot leaf.

Polling on Proposition 19 -- a California ballot initiative that would legalize marijuana -- has started to pick up. Three polls from July, including a PPP poll (PDF) released Monday, bring the total number of Prop 19 polls up to six. So, what's the verdict thus far? Will California be the first state to legalize non-medicinal weed?

At the moment, it's still anyone's guess -- the polling is enough to make anyone dazed and confused. Monday's PPP survey found voters supporting the initiative 52%-36%, and a SurveyUSA poll from two weeks ago showed support outweighing opposition by 10 points. But a Field Poll released earlier this month showed support lagging 44%-48%, while a Reuters/Ipsos poll from late June found support statistically tied with opposition, 48%-50%. What gives?

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Topics: 2010 elections, CA-Prop 19, California, Marijuana, Polls

NV-SEN

Sharron Angle: The DISCLOSE Act Is Already Law (No, It Isn't)


Sharron Angle

Sharron Angle has made some new pronouncements in the Nevada Senate race, this time on campaign finance regulations. She first approved of the failure of the DISCLOSE Act to pass through the Senate -- and then later said that we already have the DISCLOSE Act in place and on the books. Here's the only problem: The DISCLOSE Act, which Senate Dems were attempting to pass but failed to overcome a Republican filibuster, is, in fact, not yet a law.

As Jon Ralston reports, Angle was asked her position during an appearance on the Heidi Harris talk radio show today.

"Well I think that the Supreme Court has really made their decision on this, they found that we have a First Amendment right across the board that was violated by the McCain-Feingold Act. And that's what they threw out, was those violations," said Angle, referring to the Citizens United case. "The McCain-Feingold Act is still in place. The DISCLOSE Act is still in place. It's just that certain provisions within that they found to be definitely violating the First Amendment. If we didn't have the DISCLOSE Act there would be a lot of different things that people wouldn't be able to find out. And certainly you can go to FEC.gov and see where Harry Reid is getting most of his money from special interests."

The TPM Poll Average currently has Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid ahead of Angle by 44.5%-42.8%.

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Topics: 2010 elections, Campaign Finance, DISCLOSE Act, Harry Reid, NV-SEN, Senate '10, Sharron Angle

FL-SEN

Meek: National Dems Will Help Me Beat Jeff Greene (But Will They?)


Rep. Kendrick Meek (D-FL)

On a conference call with reporters today, Rep. Kendrick Meek (D-FL) said that national support from Democrats will help him defeat the advertising onslaught from billionaire candidate Jeff Greene in the Democratic primary for Senate. Meek said that despite his tough poll numbers and Greene's seemingly limitless spending, Meek still has the support of the national party and that that could be the difference maker on Aug. 24 when voters head to the polls to choose which Democrat will go up against Gov. Charlie Crist (I) and Marco Rubio (R) in November.

Meek said White House chief of staff Rahm Emanuel will be in Florida Aug. 2 to help raise money for his campaign, and he said that "we've also heard that there may very well be members of the administration coming down before the primary."

He'll need some help from the Democratic party's big guns if he wants to keep up with Greene's ad spending, which has gone essentially unchecked since Greene got in the primary race on April 30. Meek just went up with his first TV ad of the campaign this week, attempting to blunt Greene's push with a negative attack on Greene's past as a Wall Street trader who cashed in on the collapse of the housing market.

Read more »

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Topics: FL-SEN

FL-SEN

Jeff Greene Gets New Campaign Manager


Jeff Greene

The campaign of businessman Jeff Greene, who is running for the Democratic Senate nomination in Florida, is shaking up its operation heading into the August 24 primary.

As the St. Petersburg Times reports, Greene's campaign manager Josh Morrow has left the team, replaced by Jessica Vanden Berg. He also has a new media consultant, the firm of Devine/Mulvey.

The little polling that exists of this primary shows Democratic Rep. Kendrick Meek just barely edging Greene, but with "undecided" as the faraway winner against both of these relatively unknown candidates. In the general election, both of them run in a distant third place, behind ex-Republican and now independent Gov. Charlie Crist and Republican Marco Rubio.

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Topics: 2010 elections, FL-SEN, Jeff Greene, Kendrick Meek, Senate '10

Immigration

Brewer Says AZ Will Appeal Ruling She Thinks Is Just 'Bump In The Road' (VIDEO)


Jan Brewer

Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer (R) has pledged to appeal the judge's ruling against portions of her new immigration law, telling reporters today that it was "a little bump in the road."

Brewer said "the federal government got relief from the courts to not do their job." She said the federal government must "step up ... and do the job that they have the responsibility to do for the people of America and the people of Arizona."

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Topics: Arizona, Immigration, Jan Brewer

Andrew Cuomo

Lazio To Cuomo: I Challenge Thee To A Mosque-Only Debate


New York Attorney General and Gov. candidate Andrew Cuomo (D) and NY Gov. candidate Rick Lazio (R)

Rick Lazio, the Republican frontrunner in the primary for New York governor, has thrown down the gauntlet and challenged Democratic nominee and state Attorney General Andrew Cuomo to a debate...a debate that focuses solely on the controversial plans to build a Muslim community center near Ground Zero.

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Topics: 'Ground Zero Mosque', Andrew Cuomo, Carl Paladino, NY-GOV, Rick Lazio

John Thune

Math Is Hard: John Thune's Plan To Eliminate Deficits In 10 Many, Many Years


Sen. John Thune (R-SD)

Sen. John Thune (R-SD) -- the fifth highest ranking Republican in the Senate -- has a new plan for lowering deficits, and as you might expect from GOP leadership, it involves zero tax hikes. It does however, involve math and, if his appearance on Fox News last night is any indication, Thune finds math rather difficult. There's really no other way to explain his utter failure to remember the law of diminishing returns when he talked about the benefits of his deficit reduction plan.

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Topics: Barack Obama, Budget, Deficit, Fiscal responsibility, John Thune, Republicans, Senate, Tax Cuts, Taxes

MO-SEN

Missouri Tea Partiers Rip Michele Bachmann For Backing Roy Blunt


Reps. Michele Bachmann (R-MN) and Roy Blunt (R-MO)

Tea party groups in Missouri are furious that national tea party icon, Rep. Michele Bachmann, endorsed the strong frontrunner for the Senate nomination Rep. Roy Blunt (R-MO). Bachmann will join Blunt for a fundraiser and to make campaign calls in his St. Louis headquarters Saturday.

Given that Bachmann has emerged as a tea party hero and formed the brand-new Tea Party Caucus in Congress, the groups said "we were shocked" that she is backing Blunt since he voted for the TARP bailout funds and "Cash for Clunkers."

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Topics: 2010 elections, Chuck Purgason, MO-SEN, Michele Bachmann, Robin Carnahan, Roy Blunt

WI-SEN

GOPer Ron Johnson: I'll Eventually Sell My BP Stock -- When The Market's Better


Republican candidate for Senate Ron Johnson (WI).

Ron Johnson, a businessman seeking the Republican nomination in Wisconsin against Democratic Sen. Russ Feingold, might not fully grasp the concept of dumping one's stock holdings for political reasons.

Johnson, who has come under scrutiny after his financial disclosures showed that he owns stock in BP valued at between $116,003 and $315,000, has been sending mixed signals over whether he will sell the stock. Now he's indicating that he probably will sell -- as soon as it makes sense from a financial perspective.

"I think that'll eventually happen, but I'm going to do it based on market conditions," Johnson said at a forum on Monday, hosted by WisPolitics. "I'm going to have to finance this campaign. At some point in time to get my message out, that'll probably happen."

The TPM Poll Average gives Feingold a narrow edge of 42.0%-40.4%.

Late Update: Note that Johnson not only seems to be saying he will wait for the market to get better so that he can sell at a better price -- but he will then use his BP capital gains to finance his Senate campaign. This guy really doesn't get the whole stock-dumping idea.

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Topics: 2010 elections, BP, Gulf Coast Oil Spill, Oil Spill, Ron Johnson, Russ Feingold, Senate '10, WI-SEN

Michele Bachmann

Bachmann: Impeach Obama? That's Up To Congress (VIDEO)


President Obama and Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN)

Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN), the chair of the new House Tea Party Caucus, seems to be sitting on the fence over whether President Obama should be impeached. Instead, she's saying that those questions are up to Congress to determine.

In an interview with NewsMax, Bachmann was asked about former Colorado Rep. Tom Tancredo's (Republican/Constitution) statements that Obama should be impeached for allegedly refusing to secure the border in order to force an immigration reform package. Bachmann -- who has said that subpoenaing and investigating the Obama administration is "all we should do" if Republicans gain control of Congress -- didn't quite give a definite answer.

"When it comes to the issue of securing our borders, again it seems to have a political basis rather than a basis that is grounded in what is good for America, our economy, and the safety and health of the American people," said Bachmann. "Whether or not this is an impeachable offense is one that the Congress would have to make a determination on. But I think clearly the president isn't acting out of the best interests of what would be good for people's safety and good for our economy."

Read more »

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Topics: 2010 elections, House '10, Immigration, Impeachment, MN-06, Michele Bachmann, Tea Party Caucus

Immigration

Judge Rules Against Portions Of Arizona Immigration Law


Gov. Jan Brewer (R-AZ)

A federal judge today blocked several parts of Arizona's new immigration law, putting them on hold as the overall law was scheduled to take effect Thursday.

U.S. District Judge Susan Bolton ruled that the portions of the law that most angered its opponents -- including the checking of immigration status during stops for unrelated offenses -- would not be allowed to be enforced. The Associated Press reported that the sections would be put on hold until the courts resolve the issues. White House spokesman Bill Burton told reporters on Air Force one that the Department of Justice would be reacting to the ruling.

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Topics: Arizona, Immigration

David Vitter

Vitter, Breitbart Revive Death Panel Smear In Attack On FDA Breast Cancer Drug Decision


Senator David Vitter (R-LA)

In one fell swoop today, Sen. David Vitter (R-LA) revived the specter of health care death panels, and called into question the FDA's ability to judge the effectiveness of breast cancer medication.

According to the Associated Press, Vitter slammed the FDA, which voted 12-1 to drop its endorsement of the breast cancer drug Avastin after research showed that its additional positive effects were minimal, but it was associated with increased liver toxicity. Vitter called the decision "sickening" -- but not because the FDA's accelerated approval of the drug in 2007 went against the medical advise of its advisory committee or because women with metastatic breast cancer using the drug were more likely to die. Instead, he compared the FDA's reversal to withholding care for patients whose lives are "not deemed valuable enough."

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Topics: Andrew Breitbart, Breast cancer study, David Vitter, Death Panels, FDA, Health Care

Energy

GOP Prepares To Oppose Dem Energy Bill Over Oil Spill Liability


Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK)

Despite the demise of climate change legislation last week, top Republicans are loudly opposing a new, scaled back energy bill unveiled by Senate Democrats last night.

At a press conference this morning with top Republicans, Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) called it a "cobbled-together bill," and GOP aides continue to raise the specter of a "national energy tax" despite the fact that the new legislation contains no tax on carbon emissions.

The Democratic plan, which is comprised of several measures (each of which has bipartisan support), may be in serious jeopardy, unless Democrats budge on one key issue: oil spill liability.

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Topics: Cap-and-Trade, Climate Change, Energy, Environment, Gulf Coast Oil Spill, John Barrasso, Lisa Murkowski, Nuclear Energy, Oil, Oil Spill, Republicans

NV-SEN

Rasmussen Poll: Reid Takes Two-Point Lead Over Angle


US Senate candidate Sharron Angle (R-NV) and Senator Harry Reid (D-NV)

In yet another sign that Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) has recovered in his re-election race -- thanks to the many gaffes and right-wing positions of Republican former state Rep. Sharron Angle -- the new Rasmussen poll of the state now has Reid inching ahead, the first time Reid has been ahead in a Rasmussen survey.

The numbers: Reid 45%, Angle 43%. The survey of likely voters has a ±4% margin of error. In the previous Rasmussen poll from two weeks ago, Angle led by 46%-43%. The TPM Poll Average has Reid leading Angle by 44.5%-42.8%.

In addition, Rasmussen has changed its rating on this race, from toss-up to leaning Dem.

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Topics: 2010 elections, Harry Reid, NV-SEN, Polls, Senate '10, Sharron Angle

WA-SEN

Obama Heading To Washington To Raise Money For Patty Murray


Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA)

Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA), whose reelection bid is looking a little tougher than expected thanks to the entrance of former gubernatorial candidate Dino Rossi (R), is getting a little help from the country's most famous Democrat.

According to the Seattle Times, President Obama will headline a fundraiser for Murray on August 17 -- the same day as Washington's primary -- as part of his first presidential trip to Seattle.

Murray, first elected to the Senate in 1992, already has a large warchest to battle Rossi, the assumed Republican choice in the state's "top 2" open primary system. In the last fundraising quarter, Murray reported $6.8 million on hand, putting her well ahead of Rossi's reported $1.3 million.

Polls show the race to be close, however, and Republicans have repeatedly pointed to the race as a potiential pickup opportunity since Rossi got in. The TPM Poll Average shows the race to be essentially a dead heat, with Murray leading Rossi 45.5-44.8.

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Topics: Patty Murray, WA-SEN

Economy

In New Study, Two Economists Argue That Bush And Obama's Intervention Prevented Depression


Pres. Obama and Fmr. Pres. George W. Bush

So has the Obama economic program been working? While the economy certainly continues to have problems, the Obama administration -- and some members of the Bush administration -- have consistently argued that things would have been worse without their intervention. And now, two economists have published a study arguing in favor of that very idea, saying that there's quantitative evidence that the interventions of the Obama and Bush administrations helped avert a depression.

As the New York Times reports, a new economic paper from Princeton professor and former Fed vice chair Alan S. Blinder and Moody's chief economist Mark Zandi argues that the combination of financial reforms such as TARP, bank stress tests and emergency lending by the Fed, plus the stimulus, have indeed saved the economy from far worse problems.

The report also finds that while the financial reforms alone would have been been stronger than the stimulus alone, the whole is not directly comparable to the sum of the parts in isolation, "because the policies tend to reinforce each other."

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Topics: Bailout, Barack Obama, Economy, Financial Reform, Stimulus, TARP

CT-SEN

Rob Simmons Finally Says It: 'I Am Running For The United States Senate' (Again)


CT-SEN candidate Rob Simmons (R)

Former Rep. Rob Simmons (R-CT) boldly declared Tuesday night that he is officially back and running in the Connecticut Senate race -- though on the other hand, he also joked that he should have edited that statement.

Simmons, who suspended his campaign for the Republican nomination in late May but has recently gone back on the air -- with an ad reminding voters, as he likes to say, that he's "still on the ballot" -- showed up last night for a debate with another candidate, financial commentator Peter Schiff. The frontrunner for the Republican nomination, former World Wrestling Entertainment CEO Linda McMahon, was not present.

"I'm Rob Simmons. I am running for the United States Senate, because I love my country, and I don't like where it's going," said Simmons. As the Connecticut Mirror reports: "But Simmons was playful after the debate concerning his status: 'I should have edited that old opening statement.'"

The Republican primary will be held on August 10. The TPM Poll Average for the primary shows McMahon with a lead of 43.4%-29.6% over Simmons, plus 10.0% for Schiff. In the general election, McMahon trails Democratic state Attorney General Richard Blumenthal by 52.5%-38.8%, and Simmons trails Blumenthal by 52.7%-35.7%.

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Topics: 2010 elections, CT-SEN, Linda McMahon, Rob Simmons, Senate '10

NH-SEN

PPP Poll: Ayotte Trouncing Rivals in GOP's NH-SEN Primary


US Senate primary candidate Kelly Ayotte (R-NH)

A new PPP (D) survey of the New Hampshire Republican Senate primary finds Kelly Ayotte cruising in first with a huge lead over other would-be Republican nominees. The poll has Ayotte with 47%, rival Bill Binnie with 14%, and the other contenders mired in the single digits.

Ayotte's lead in this PPP poll is the largest she's had. A Magellan poll from late May gave Ayotte only a nine-point leader over Binnie, and a PPP poll from April put Ayotte's lead at 24 points.

The TPM Poll Average shows former state Attorney General Ayotte with a general election lead of 48.1-38.2 over Democratic Rep. Paul Hodes.

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Topics: 2010 elections, Bill Binnie, Frank Emiro, Jack Kimball, John Stephen, Karen Testerman, Kelly Ayotte, NH-GOV, NH-SEN, Polls

CA-GOV

Poll: Meg Whitman Trails Jerry Brown -- And Voters Don't Like Self-Financed Campaigns


CA-GOV candidates Jerry Brown (D) and Meg Whitman (R-CA)

The new survey of the California gubernatorial race by Public Policy Polling (D) shows Democratic state Attorney General and ex-Governor Jerry Brown leading Republican former eBay CEO Meg Whitman -- with some possible resentment of Whitman's heavy self-financing for the race.

The horserace: Brown 46%, Whitman 40%. The survey of registered voters has a ±3.95% margin of error. In the previous poll from late May, two weeks before Whitman won the Republican primary, Brown led by a healthier 48%-36%. The TPM Poll Average has Brown leading by 44.9%-42.4%.

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Topics: 2010 elections, CA-GOV, Jerry Brown, Meg Whitman, Polls

Roundup

TPMDC Morning Roundup

Big War Boost Clears Congress, Despite Afghan Leak
The Associated Press reports: "The House on Tuesday sent President Barack Obama a major war-funding increase of $33 billion to pay for his troop surge in Afghanistan, unmoved by the leaking of classified documents that portray a military effort struggling between 2004 and 2009 against a strengthening insurgency. The House voted, 308-114, to approve the spending boost for the additional 30,000 U.S. troops in Afghanistan. Other non-war provisions brought the total bill to nearly $59 billion."

Obama's Day Ahead
President Obama will receive the presidential daily briefing at 9:30 a.m. ET, will meet at 10 a.m. ET with senior advisers, and will meet at 10:40 a.m. ET with Sen. John Kerry (D-MA). He will depart from the White House at 11:45 a.m. ET, and depart from Andrews Air Force at 12 p.m. ET, arriving at 12:50 p.m. ET in Newark, New Jersey. At 1:30 p.m. ET, he will meet with a group of small business owners in Edison, New Jersey, and will deliver a statement to the press at 2:20 p.m. ET. He will attend a Democratic National Committee fundraiser at 5:40 p.m. ET, and another DNC fundraiser at 7:20 p.m. ET, both of them in New York City. He will depart from Newark at 8:50 p.m. ET, arriving back at Andrews Air Force Base at 9:40 p.m. ET, and back at the White House at 9:55 p.m. ET.

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Topics: 2010 elections, Afghanistan, Barack Obama, Filibuster, Fundraising, Health Care, House '10, Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, Roundup, Steny Hoyer, Texas

IL-SEN

Rasmussen Poll: Dem Giannoulias Has Slim Lead Over Kirk In Illinois Senate Race


IL Senate candidates Alexi Giannoulias (D) and Mark Kirk (R)

Rasmussen's out with a new poll of the Illinois Senate race this morning, and it shows Democrat Alexi Giannoulias with a slim 43%-41% lead over Republican Rep. Mark Kirk in the race for Barack Obama's old Senate seat.

Giannoulias is in a slightly better position than he was in the last Rasmussen survey, which showed him leading Kirk 40%-39%, but he's not a particularly popular candidate. The Rasmussen poll shows him with a favorable rating of 37% compared to Kirk's 46%.

The TPM Poll Average of the race shows Kirk still leading Giannoulias 41.1%-40.6%. The margin of error for the latest Rasmussen survey is ±4.0 percentage points.

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Topics: 2010 elections, Alexi Giannoulias, IL-SEN, Mark Kirk, Polls, Senate '10

Shirley Sherrod

Sherrod Critic: She Used 'Lynching' To Gin Up Democratic Voters


Former USDA official Shirley Sherrod

On Monday, former Reagan administration official Jeffrey Lord astonished the left and the right by penning an article in the conservative American Spectator attacking former-USDA official Shirley Sherrod for using the term "lynching" to describe the murder of one of her relative years ago. The problem, according to Lord, was that the victim, Bobby Hall was beaten to death by a blackjack, rather than being hanged by the neck. "It's...possible that she knew the truth and chose to embellish it, changing a brutal and fatal beating to a lynching."

Critics, even at his own magazine, pounced, noting that a lynching is an extrajudicial murder by a mob, whether or not the weapon of choice is a rope.

Last night, in an interview with TPMDC, Lord defended himself and extended his critique of Sherrod, and the entire Democratic party, which he claims is the true repository of racism in the United States.

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Topics: Democrats, Jeffrey Lord, Racism, Shirley Sherrod

2010 elections

Dems To Define GOP With 'Republican-Tea Party Contract With America' (VIDEO)


Tim Kaine, DNC chair

Democratic National Committee Chairman Tim Kaine today will announce a new party initiative aimed at defining the Republicans who want to win control of Congress as tea partiers who want to repeal everything and abolish federal agencies.

A Democratic official offering TPM an early preview of what Kaine would say during an 11 a.m. press conference today with members of Congress framed the push as "a preemptive strike" against the Republican plans to roll out a new "contract" with America for the fall elections.

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Topics: 2010 elections, DNC, Tea Party, Tim Kaine

Immigration

DREAM Dashed? Dems Divided Over Bill To Give Green Cards To Undocumented Students

Democrats had until recently been keeping alive the possibility of considering a comprehensive immigration reform measure this year, but now that they acknowledge it isn't politically possible, the party is fracturing over whether to tackle a smaller portion of the problem in the form of the DREAM Act.

Officially titled the Development, Relief and Education for Alien Minors Act, the bill has been discussed for years as a reasonable change that members from both parties can get behind. In short, the Dream Act would allow a conditional permanent residency for students who graduate from high school and earn or are on track to earn a college degree. It would help potentially millions of illegal immigrants who were brought here illegally by their parents as young children and attended schools in the U.S. all their life.

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Topics: Congressional Hispanic Caucus, DREAM Act, Harry Reid, Immigration, Nancy Pelosi, Raul Grijalva

Andrew Romanoff

Denver School Board Member Resigns From Romanoff Campaign Over Payments


US Senate candidate Andrew Romanoff (D-CO)

Looks like it's not just Republicans in Colorado who are having a rough time dragging their campaigns across the primary finish line.

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Topics: Andrew Romanoff, CO-SEN, Michael Bennet

Medical marijuana

Veterans Administration: Patients Who Use Medical Marijuana Won't Face Penalties

Tthe Under Secretary of Health at the Veterans Administration issued a little-noticed directive to VA medical facilities recently, informing facilities that patients who legally use medical marijuana may not be denied access to health services because of their outside prescription. It is the first time the VA has issued such a directive, and comes as the Administration has been quietly relaxing the Bush Administration's efforts to prosecute medical marijuana growers, dispensaries and users who qualify under state laws.

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Topics: Marijuana, Marijuana legislation, Medical marijuana, Veterans

MN-GOV

Labor Group's Ad Blasts Emmer For DWI History, Efforts To Soften Drunk-Driving Laws (VIDEO)


A new ad from Alliance for a Better Minnesota attacking MN Gov. candidate Tom Emmer (R) on drunk driving.

The labor-affiliated Alliance for a Better Minnesota has a new attack ad against state Rep. Tom Emmer, the presumptive Republican nominee for governor. The ad goes after Emmer for his legislative work trying to soften the state's DWI laws -- while having in his past two drunk driving-related encounters with the law himself.

The ad features a woman named Margaret Everson, talking about her son's death at the hands of a drunk driver. "Our son John was the light of our life and to receive a call at 3 in the morning that he'd been killed by a drunk driver is the worst nightmare a parent can experience," says Everson. "So when I heard that Tom Emmer sponsored a law to reduce penalties for drunk drivers -- I was outraged. And then I read that Tom Emmer has been arrested twice himself for drunk driving. And his man wants to be Governor?"

The Alliance is spending more than $500,000 to air this spot.

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Topics: 2010 elections, MN-GOV, Tom Emmer

NC-SEN

Poll: GOP Sen. Burr Leads Dem Marshall By 7 In NC-SEN Race


Sen. Richard Burr (R-NC) and Sen. candidate Elaine Marshall (D-NC)

A new Civitas poll of the North Carolina Senate race finds incumbent Republican Sen. Richard Burr ahead with a 44%-37% lead over North Carolina Democratic Secretary of State Elaine Marshall.

"Burr continues to maintain a solid lead over Marshall despite the recent TV ads attacking his record," writes Civitas analyst Chris Hayes. "With Marshall having very little cross-over appeal to Republicans, her standing with the unaffiliated voter will play a key role come Election Day."

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Topics: 2010 elections, Elaine Marshall, NC-SEN, Polls, Richard Burr

Ben Chandler

Flashback: Blue Dog Ben Chandler Spoke Of 'Chickens For Checkups' Last November!


Rep. Ben Chandler (D-KY)

It turns out that former Nevada Senate Republican candidate Sue Lowden, who lost her primary June 8 after a phenomenal self-destruction known as "Chickens For Checkups," was not the first politician to voice a nostalgic approval for the days when people would pay a doctor by bartering live poultry. As it turns out, that "honor" goes to Rep. Ben Chandler (D-KY), a Blue Dog who voted against health care reform, in some newly-revealed video from November 2009.

As Greg Sargent reports, the video shows a woman who opposed the bill, speaking positively about how her family would pay for their own health care when she was younger. "They didn't have any kind of health insurance, they went to the doctor, and we paid for the call," the woman told Chandler.

Chandler then responded positively: "When you didn't have money, you gave him a chicken. You could barter if you didn't have enough money."

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Topics: 2010 elections, Barter, Ben Chandler, Health Care, House '10, KY-06

FL-GOV

Former GOP FL-GOV Frontrunner Bill McCollum: Good News! I'm Only Down 6


FL Republican Gov. candidates Bill McCollum and Rick Scott.

Bill McCollum, Florida's attorney general and one-time frontrunner in the state's Republican gubernatorial primary, is out with a new internal polling memo trumpeting the fact that he's down only six points against challenger Rick Scott. The poll, conducted by McLaughlin & Associates on July 22, shows Scott pulling ahead of McCollum, 37%-31%. The memo reports that, three weeks ago, the two candidates were neck-and-neck at 35%.

A PPP poll last week showed Scott up 14 points heading into the August 24 primary.

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Topics: 2010 elections, Bill McCollum, FL-GOV, Polls, Rick Scott

CO-SEN

Rasmussen Poll: CO-SEN GOPers Holding Pretty Steady -- Even After Gaffes


Colorado GOP Senate candidates Ken Buck and Jane Norton

The latest Rasmussen poll of the Colorado Senate race shows Republicans Ken Buck and Jane Norton leading either of their likely potential Democratic opponents in the general -- despite recent gaffes that have attracted unwelcome headlines for both GOPers.

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Topics: CO-SEN, Jane Norton, Ken Buck

CA-SEN

PPP Poll: Boxer Leads Fiorina -- And Has Better Hair


Senator Barbara Boxer (D-CA) and Senate candidate Carly Fiorina (R-CA)

The new Public Policy Polling (D) survey of the California Senate race gives Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer a lead over her Republican opponent, former Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina. Though Boxer's own ratings remain only modest, Fiorina's are, nevertheless, even lower at the moment.

The worse news for Fiorina, though, is that slightly more voters prefer Boxer's hairdo.

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Topics: Barbara Boxer, CA-SEN, California, Carly Fiorina, Polls, Senate '10

Elizabeth Warren

Dodd: No Recess Appointment For Warren, Who Still May Not Be Confirmable


Sen. Chris Dodd (D-CT)

Senate Banking Committee Chairman Chris Dodd cast more doubts this afternoon about whether Elizabeth Warren could garner enough votes to head the newly created consumer financial protection bureau, one day after White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs called her "very confirmable."

"I don't know, that's the question, how does he know that?" Dodd said in response to a question from TPMDC on his way in to the Democrats' weekly policy lunch.

"She's qualified, no question about that. The question is whether she's confirmable," Dodd added. "The issue is [if] you can't confirm somebody, if you go six or seven months without someone in that job, you've got a problem."

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Topics: Chris Dodd, Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, Elizabeth Warren, Financial Reform, Recess appointments, Robert Gibbs, Senate, Wall Street, White House

MO-SEN

Joe The Plumber Backs Roy Blunt Rival In Missouri's GOP Primary (VIDEO)


Joe the Plumber and US Senate candidate Chuck Purgason (R-MO)

Democrats are treating Rep. Roy Blunt (R-MO) like the certain Senate nominee this fall, but Blunt's rival in next week's Republican primary is getting an insurgent boost from Sam "Joe the Plumber" Wurzelbacher.

Wurzelbacher endorsed state lawmaker Chuck Purgason for the Aug. 3 Republican primary in Missouri, saying in a new television ad (which he paid for) that voters "do have a choice" in the race. He noted his emergence on the national stage and said he's made it his goal to "stop politicians like Obama." Wurzelbacher calls Blunt a "Washington insider," and Purgason a "man with character."

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Topics: 2010 elections, Chuck Purgason, Joe the Plumber, MO-SEN, Roy Blunt

Paul Ryan

Paul Ryan On GOP: 'We Have A Decentralized Party From A Leadership Standpoint'


Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI)

Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI) says he's not calling out his Republican Party -- although he does say that the GOP has a lack of centralized leadership and specifics on the big issues.

Speaking at a Brookings Institution event last week, Ryan was asked why more conservatives were not backing his roadmap plan for privatizing Medicare and Social Security, converting them into sets of vouchers and private accounts. "They're talking to their pollsters and their pollsters are saying, 'Stay away from this. We're going to win an election,'" Ryan said. He also said: "Unfortunately, you know, when I jumped in the pool and encouraged other people to jump in the pool, we haven't had many other folks swimming around. And that's from both sides of the aisle, I would say."

Ryan has now told the Daily Caller in an interview: "We are a decentralized party right now from a leadership standpoint. We don't have some obvious nominee, and who knows who that's going to be. So I just feel like it's important for some of us to step in and help define the moment."

Ryan added: "I'm not calling my party out ... I'm just adding ideas to the pile to try and move the debate forward."

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Topics: 2010 elections, America Speaking Out, House '10, Medicare, Paul Ryan, Social Security

NH-SEN

PPP Poll: Dem Rep. Paul Hodes (Just Barely) Trails Top GOPers In NH Senate Race


Rep. Paul Hodes (D-NH)

A new PPP (D) survey (PDF) of the New Hampshire Senate race shows Democratic Rep. Paul Hodes trailing both of his most likely Republican opponents -- but just barely. The survey found Republican Kelly Ayotte leading Hodes 45%-42% and Republican Bill Binnie ahead of Hodes 46%-41%.

The last PPP poll of the race -- from April -- showed Ayotte with a seven-point lead over Hodes, and Binnie with a five-point lead.

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Topics: 2010 elections, Bill Binnie, Kelly Ayotte, NH-SEN, Paul Hodes, Polls

DE-SEN

Tea Party Express Makes Its First Endorsement Of The Post-Mark Williams Era


US Senate candidate Christine O'Donnell (R-DE)

The Tea Party Express promised to soldier on in the wake of the Mark Williams saga, and today it made good on the pledge. For the first time since Williams -- a former chairman and spokesperson for the group -- resigned from the Tea Party Express, the TPE has endorsed a candidate in a Republican primary. The beneficiary of the TPE's return to the campaign trail? Christine O'Donnell, the tea party-style conservative challenging Rep. Mike Castle for the GOP Senate nomination in Delaware.

As has so often been the case with TPE-endorsed candidates this year, the group says Castle must be defeated because he's not conservative enough.

"We long ago announced our intention to hold Mike Castle accountable for his failed record in Congress, and now we have an excellent shot to make sure he is defeated by a solid conservative candidate," TPE coordinator Joe Wierzbicki said in a statement.

[TPM SLIDESHOW: Christine O'Donnell: Anti-Masturbation Crusader. Witchcraft Dabbler. Republican Senate Nominee.]

For her part, O'Donnell seemed to welcome the endorsement from the group other tea partiers love to hate.

"This endorsement may prove to be a pivot point in the campaign," O'Donnell's campaign says on its website. A game changer perhaps."

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Topics: DE-SEN, Tea Party Express

Newt Gingrich

Gingrich: Forget Ground Zero -- They Can Build A Mosque Near Central Park Or Columbia Instead (VIDEO)


Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-GA)

Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich appeared last night on Greta Van Susteren's show, elaborating on his opposition to the building of a Muslim community center near Ground Zero in New York City. During his appearance, Gingrich ended up making it clear that he doesn't oppose mosques in all of New York -- just in this particular spot.

"You know, there are over a hundred mosques in New York City. I favor religious freedom," said Gingrich. "I'm quite happy if they'd come in and said, 'We want to build a community center near Central Park, we'd like to build a community center near Columbia University.' But they didn't. They said right at the edge of a place where, let's be clear, thousands of Americans were killed in an attack by radical Islamists."

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Topics: 2012 elections, Islam, Newt Gingrich, Pres '12

CO-SEN

Dem Romanoff Sells His House To Help Pay For Colorado Senate Campaign


Andrew Romanoff (D)

Colorado Democrat Andrew Romanoff is selling the farm in his quest to beat Sen. Michael Bennet (D-CO) in the August 10 Senate primary. Seriously, the guy just sold his house and loaned his campaign $325,000.

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Topics: Andrew Romanoff, CO-SEN, Michael Bennet

pigford

Hoyer 'Very Disappointed' That USDA Race Settlement Stripped From War Bill


House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-MD)

House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer said today that he is "very disappointed" that senators struck settlement funds for African-American farmers who faced discrimination from a supplemental spending bill his chamber passed earlier this year.

The funds, known at the Pigford II settlement, are intended to compensate farmers for long-standing racial discrimination they faced from USDA that, in many cases, resulted in the loss of their farms. The settlement achieved a level of publicity last week after some conservatives attempted to use the firing of Shirley Sherrod to claim that the settlement procedures had led to fraud.

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Topics: Shirley Sherrod, Steny Hoyer, pigford

NV-SEN

National GOP Sending In Top Press Operative For Sharron Angle


US Senate candidate Sharron Angle (R-NV)

The National Republican Senatorial Committee is bringing in extra help for Republican nominee Sharron Angle in the Nevada Senate race, with press operative Brian Jones set to advise Angle in her race, as well as Carly Fiorina in California and the to-be-determined GOP nominee in Washington state.

As Jonathan Martin writes: "Jones is a seasoned press hand. In the 2008 cycle, he was initially the communications director for John McCain's presidential campaign, where he worked closely with fellow top aides Terry Nelson and Rob Jesmer - both now top NRSC officials. Jones also worked on President Bush's 2004 re-election campaign."

The TPM Poll Average has Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid leading Angle by 44.0%-43.1%, despite Reid's own unpopularity and the bad economy. This comes largely as a result of Angle's own missteps, her pattern of avoiding the press, and Reid's attacks on her right-wing positions.

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Topics: 2010 elections, Harry Reid, NRSC, NV-SEN, Senate '10, Sharron Angle

John Boehner

Boehner Gets Specific On His Plans To Halt Federal Regulation


House Minority Leader Rep. John Boehner (R-OH)

House Minority Leader John Boehner has offered specifics about his recent call for a moratorium on new federal regulations, and TPM's gotten a look at just what kinds of regulations -- other than the obvious ones implementing health care and Wall Street reforms -- Boehner's plan would block.

Boehner last week endorsed the REINS Act, sponsored by Rep. Geoff Davis (R-KY), saying at his weekly press conference that "any rulemaking where the estimated cost to Americans would exceed $100 million," should not go into effect "without Congress voting on it first." That's short of the full moratorium Boehner initially called for, but could nonetheless be a recipe for gridlock and ugly politics. That standard in the act would ensnare scores of new regulations every year, including both broadly popular, time-sensitive ones, and others over which remain substantial partisan disagreement.

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Topics: Financial Reform, Health Care, House of Representatives, John Boehner, OMB, Republicans, Wall Street, White House

FL-GOV

Winner In Florida's Republican Gov Primary Emerges: Democrat Alex Sink


Florida Gov. candidates Bill McCollum (R), Alex Sink (D) and Rick Scott (R).

As the unexpectedly contested Florida Republican gubernatorial primary enters its final month, a winner has started to emerge after the millions in negative TV ads plastered across the state by state Attorney General Bill McCollum and wealthy businessman Rick Scott -- and that lucky candidate is Democratic candidate Alex Sink.

Last week, a fresh poll of the governor's race showed that despite being the third wheel in the second-most entertaining Florida political soap opera of the year, Sink has managed to pull ahead of both Republican candidates in general election matchups, thanks to tanking favorability numbers for both Scott and McCollum.

According to local press reports out of Florida, Republicans are starting to get nervous about Scott, the frontrunner for the party's nomination. Scott looks like the guy who'll win Aug. 24, leaving Florida Republicans with perhaps the most damaged Republican candidate for governor since Jim Giibbons. Even if Scott somehow loses to McCollum, his spending (plus McCollum's own problems of course) have Democrats overjoyed with the situation. In fact, things have played out in Sink's favor beyond the Democrats' wildest hopes ever since Scott jumped into the race back in April.

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Topics: 2010 elections, Alex Sink, Bill McCollum, FL-GOV, Rick Scott

2010 elections

Rough Road Ahead: November Looms As Progressives Question Priorities (VIDEO)


A donkey on a long road winding into the horizon.

There's no doubt about it, things aren't looking good for November for the Democratic party. It's way too early to know if they will lose the House, but there is broad agreement that 100 days from now, there will be losses and Democratic numbers in Congress will dwindle.

On the ground in Las Vegas for the last several days, TPM took the temperature of Netroots Nation activists, the candidates courting them for dollars and door-knocking and the official party operatives who need progressives engaged if they want to prevent a total wipeout this fall. Most campaign types sounded hopeful notes that it won't be as bad in the end as it looks now, and there seems to be broad agreement that, if the races are put into the context of the idea that Democrats move forward and the Republicans want to take you back to the Bush era, they might just stave off the worst of the losses.

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Topics: 2010 elections, Netroots Nation, Progressive Community

Roundup

TPMDC Morning Roundup

Document Leak May Hurt Efforts to Build War Support
The New York Times reports on the political fallout from the posting of documents about the Afghanistan war: "Administration officials acknowledged that the documents, released on the Internet by an organization called WikiLeaks, will make it harder for Mr. Obama as he tries to hang on to public and Congressional support until the end of the year, when he has scheduled a review of the war effort. 'We don't know how to react,' one frustrated administration official said on Monday. 'This obviously puts Congress and the public in a bad mood.'"

Obama's Day Ahead
President Obama will receive the presidential daily briefing at 9:30 a.m. ET, and will receive the economic daily briefing at 10 a.m. ET. He will meet at 11 a.m. ET with the Congressional leadership from both parties, will deliver a statement to the press at 12 p.m. ET, and will have lunch with House members at 12:20 p.m. ET. He will congratulate the Warner Robins Softball World Series Champions at 3:05 p.m. ET. He will meet at 4 p.m. ET with Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner, and will meet at 4:30 p.m. ET with Defense Secretary Robert Gates. At 7 p.m. ET, he will attend a Democratic National Committee fundraising dinner.

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Topics: 2010 elections, Barack Obama, Climate Change, Energy, Joe Biden, Roundup, Tax Cuts, Taxes

CO-GOV

The Dirty Dozen: Tom Tancredo's Top 12 Moments Of Nativism, Racism And Fear-Mongering (VIDEO)


Tom Tancredo

Tom Tancredo. The man. The myth. The nativist.

Yesterday, the former Republican congressman and 2008 presidential candidate upended the Colorado gubernatorial race by backing up his threat to run as a third-party candidate if the two leading Republican candidates didn't vow to drop out.

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Topics: CO-GOV, Tom Tancredo

Tea Party Nation

Tea Party Nation Announces New Dates For Tea Party Unity Convention


The Mirage Hotel, Las Vegas.

After failing to pull it off the first time, tea partiers say they're finally ready to party. The Tea Party Nation says this year's National Tea Party Unity Convention -- delayed from its originally-scheduled July 15-17 dates in Las Vegas due to the "heat," according to organizers at the time -- is back on, and back in Vegas.

The convention will be held Oct. 14-16 at the Mirage hotel and casino on the Vegas strip. Other than the giant volcano out front, the hotel is an interesting choice for another reason -- as Christina reported over the weekend, the massive Venetian hotel was selected by conservatives gathering for RightOnline because it's the only non-union hotel on the strip. The employees of the Mirage, like the rest of the hotels around it, are represented by the city's powerful hospitality unions.

In announcing the new dates today, tea party organizers seemed excited to have a new home for their second national convention, regardless of who may be staffing it.

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Topics: Tea Party Nation, Tea Party Nation Convention

IL-09

GOP Candidate Invokes Steve Biko In Defense Of Breitbart


IL-09 House candidate Joel Pollak (R)

Joel Pollak, a Republican House candidate running in the ultra-safe Democratic seat currently held by Rep. Jan Schakowsky, is coming to the defense of Andrew Breitbart against Democratic attacks. In fact, Pollak is even invoking the late Steve Biko, the black South African activist who was killed by police 33 years ago and became a symbol of the Apartheid regime's tyrannical rule.

Pollak, whose white family left South Africa during the Apartheid era in 1977, wrote in a post on Breitbart's Big Government site:

My family immigrated to America in the same year that South African police murdered Black Consciousness leader Steve Biko. The racist regime that destroyed him viewed him as a threat because of his simple credo: "I write what I like." Biko understood that freedom of thought and expression were the greatest weapons against tyranny.

Last week, my opponent, Rep. Jan Schakowsky (D-IL), called on me to denounce Andrew Breitbart and to end any further association with his website, BigGovernment.com.

Her attack was typical of a corrupt Washington elite that believes it is entitled to tell people what to say and where to say it. It was that kind of behavior that convinced me to run against Schakowsky to begin with, after she collaborated with paid organizers in shutting down questions from constituents at her town hall meeting last August.

(Via Media Matters)

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Topics: 2010 elections, Andrew Breitbart, House '10, IL-09, Jan Schakowsky, Joel Pollak

CO-GOV

Tancredo's New Home In The Constitution Party: A Religious, Paleoconservative Group Without Much Electoral Success


Tom Tancredo

So what exactly is the Constitution Party, the group that former Rep. Tom Tancredo (R-CO) is now joining in order to run for governor of Colorado?

The Constitution Party is a religiously conservative, right-wing party founded in 1992 -- and a group that has not yet had success in Colorado politics, though they hope that Tancredo might provide a breakthrough. If Tancredo wants to use this third-party platform to beat the Republican nominee -- either Scott McInnis or Dan Maes -- and likely Democratic nominee Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper, Tancredo will have to buck history. In the 2008 election in Colorado, the party's presidential nominee Chuck Baldwin received 6,233 votes, 0.257% of the votes in the state.

Overall, the Constitution Party's positions could be described as religious conservative and paleoconservative. They also strongly reject neoconservatism and American internationalism as threats to the country's independence and sovereignty. For example, in 2008 they nominated Chuck Baldwin, defeating Alan Keyes' attempt to win its nomination, with the Iraq War as a key issue. Keyes is a strong supporter of the Iraq War, while Baldwin described it as "the illegal, immoral, unconstitutional war that has resulted in the slaughter of four thousand American soldiers and untold innocent Iraqis." And at their convention, Baldwin won by a landslide.

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Topics: 2010 elections, CO-GOV, Constitution Party, Tom Tancredo

FL-SEN

Kendrick Meek Attacks In His First Ad Of Dem Primary In FL-SEN (VIDEO)


Rep. Kendrick Meek (D-FL)

The wait is over: Kendrick Meek just fired his first return volley of the Democratic primary -- a race that until now had been dominated by billionaire investor Jeff Greene's millions in television ad spending. Befitting the nature of the increasingly nasty Democratic fight, Meek's first spot is an attack ad, smacking Greene hard for making money betting on the downturn in the housing market.

Meek's ad hits the airwaves just as signs have begun to show that Greene's multimillion-dollar ad campaign -- which has targeted Meek with negative attacks as well as sought to build Greene's own name ID -- has struggled to knock Meek out of the primary fight, despite Meek's lack of advertising and extremely low name ID.

The Meek campaign has touted a PPP (D) poll released last week that showed, despite Greene's spending (he even ran an ad in the Washington, DC media market attacking Meek for a time), that Meek still has a slim lead despite having not spent a dime on TV advertising so far. What's more, the poll shows Greene with a negative approval rating among Florida's voters, who he's been free to bombard with ads for months.

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Topics: FL-SEN, Jeff Greene, Kendrick Meek

Financial Reform

Administration Warms To Warren, The New Progressive Darling


Chair of the Congressional Oversight Panel created to oversee the expenditure of TARP, Elizabeth Warren.

Even as the administration began sounding a more positive note on the potential of Elizabeth Warren earning President Obama's nod for the newly-created Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, she's emerged as the clear progressive favorite for the post.

Obama's team has recently seemed to warm to the idea that Banking Committee Chairman Chris Dodd splashed cold water on last week, with Press Secretary Robert Gibbs saying this afternoon that she's "terrific."

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Topics: Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, Elizabeth Warren, Financial Crisis, Financial Reform, Netroots Nation

MN-GOV

Emmer Calls For State G.I. Bill That Is Already Law -- And That He Sort Of Voted Against


Minnesota gubernatorial candidate Tom Emmer (R)

Here's another fun blooper from Minnesota state Rep. Tom Emmer, the presumptive Republican nominee for governor.

Late last week, Emmer called for a state G.I. bill. "I don't know if you remember, a few years ago the governor had proposed [a Minnesota G.I. bill]," Emmer told an audience of veterans. "And I think that's something we should certainly be looking at and it's unfortunate we haven't done something like that already."

Unfortunately, as the Star Tribune reports, that proposal from 2007 did pass. And not only that, but it was passed as part of a larger higher-education appropriations bill -- which Emmer voted against. Emmer's spokesman attributed the error to "bad staff work," and also explained that Emmer voted against the appropriations bill because it underfunded the G.I. bill programs and overfunded other programs.

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Topics: 2010 elections, MN-GOV, Tom Emmer

CO-GOV

Tom Tancredo Gets Into Screaming Match With Colorado GOP Chair (AUDIO)


Colorado Republican Party Chair Dick Wadhams and former Rep. Tom Tancredo (R-CO)

Former Rep. Tom Tancredo (R-CO) just announced his bid for governor on a third party ticket today, and he's already facing pushback from the state Republican head, Dick Wadhams. And by pushback, we mean screaming match.

On Peter Boyles KHOW radio show, Tancredo and Wadhams got into a shouting match over Tancredo's decision to run, with Wadhams arguing that Tancredo is "ensuring" that the Democratic candidate, Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper, will win.

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Topics: CO-GOV, Dick Wadhams, Tom Tancredo

TN-GOV

TN GOPer Wamp Backtracks: 'When I'm Governor, Of Course We Will Not Secede From The Union'


Rep. Zach Wamp (R-TN)

Rep. Zach Wamp (R-TN), who is running in a three-way Republican primary for governor of Tennessee, is now clarifying some earlier remarks and insisting that he does not favor seceding from the Union -- though he does think that governors need to put up a strong front and assert their 10th Amendment rights against the federal government.

"When I'm governor of Tennessee, of course we will not secede from the union," said Wamp. "But we will also not have a governor who will cave in to Barack Obama."

"We're going to be a proud partner as a member of the United Sates of America," Wamp added. "But there needs to be a conflict between the states and the federal government."

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Topics: 2010 elections, Nullification, Secession, TN-GOV, Tenthers, Zach Wamp

Charlie Melancon

Melancon Makes Steady Gains On Vitter, Internal Poll Shows


Sen. David Vitter (R-LA) and Rep. Charlie Melancon (D-LA)

Last week, Louisiana Democratic Senate hopeful Charlie Melancon released an internal polling memo that showed that he had erased Republican David Vitter's double digit lead in their upcoming electoral showdown.

Internal data for that poll, conducted by Anzalone Liszt Research and obtained by TPMDC paints a picture of an electorate that still favors the GOP, but which increasingly mistrusts the incumbent Vitter in the wake of a recent scandal, and is now considering Melancon as a viable alternative.

Of 800 likely voters surveyed, 37 percent said they're likely to vote Democratic compared to 42 percent likely to vote Republican, and 20 percent undecided.

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Topics: Brent Furer, Charlie Melancon, David Vitter, Democrats, Gulf Coast Oil Spill, LA-SEN, Oil, Oil Spill, Republicans

SC-SEN

Alvin Greene: Military Docs Questioning My Abilities Are 'Ridiculous'


Alvin Greene

Surprise South Carolina Democratic Senate nominee Alvin Greene says that documents obtained by the Associated Press that quote his army supervisors as calling him an "ineffective leader" are "ridiculous," and that "those folks" only "promote the terrorists and the communists."

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Topics: Alvin Greene, SC-SEN

Muslims

Tennessee Lt. Gov: Religious Freedom May Not Count For Muslims (VIDEO)


TN Lt. Gov. Ron Ramsey

Tennessee Lt. Gov. Ron Ramsey, currently running third in the state's Republican gubernatorial primary race, says he's not sure if Constitutional guarantees of freedom of religion apply to the followers of the world's second-largest faith, Islam.

At a recent event in Hamilton County, Ramsey was asked by a man in the audience about the "threat that's invading our country from the Muslims." Ramsey proclaimed his support for the Constitution and the whole "Congress shall make no law" thing when it comes to religion. But he also said that Islam, arguably, is less a faith than it is a "cult."

"Now, you could even argue whether being a Muslim is actually a religion, or is it a nationality, way of life, cult whatever you want to call it," Ramsey said. "Now certainly we do protect our religions, but at the same time this is something we are going to have to face."

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Topics: Muslims, TN-GOV

Pres '12

Pawlenty Says Palin Can Wait To Jump Into 2012 Race


MN Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R) and Fmr. AK Gov. Sarah Palin (R)

Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R) today said that former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin's popularity and stature means she can bide her time before making a decision whether to seek a White House bid against President Obama.

"Given her status, she could afford to wait, I think, a lot longer than most other candidates because she has kind of a built in level of familiarity and awareness and support that might not be the same for others. So she could probably wait a lot longer to make any potential decision," Pawlenty told reporters at a breakfast this morning hosted by the Christian Science Monitor.

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Topics: 2010 elections, 2012 elections, Mitt Romney, Pres '12, Sarah Palin, Tim Pawlenty

CO-GOV

Tancredo Entering CO-GOV Race As Third-Party Candidate


Former Rep. Tom Tancredo (R-CO)

Ex-Rep. Tom Tancredo is in.

Tancredo had threatened to enter the Colorado gubernatorial race if two scandal-tinged Republicans vying for the party's nomination didn't agree to drop out. And today, he made good on that threat, according to The Denver Post.

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Topics: CO-GOV, Tom Tancredo

NV-SEN

Reid: Angle 'Not Mainstream For Nevada Or Probably Most Any Other Place In America' (VIDEO)


Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV) and NV-SEN candidate Sharron Angle (R)

In an interview with the right-wing Christian Broadcasting Network's David Brody, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) continued to take shots at his Republican opponent, former state Rep. Sharron Angle, saying that "she's not mainstream for Nevada or probably most any other place in America."

Brody asked Reid whether Angle was an extremist. "Well, I'm not going to be calling her a name," said Reid. "I've never met Sharron Angle that I remember. Anyone in Nevada that wants nuclear waste to come to Yucca Mountain is not in the mainline of what Nevadans want."

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Topics: 2010 elections, Harry Reid, NV-SEN, Senate '10, Sharron Angle

Andrew Breitbart

TPM Exclusive: Steele To Hold RNC Event -- Co-Starring Andrew Breitbart


RNC Chairman Michael Steele and conservative blogger Andrew Breitbart

Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Steele has a party fundraising event coming up in August that is scheduled to feature a very special guest: Conservative media activist Andrew Breitbart, according to a copy of the invitation exclusively obtained by TPM.

The fundraising event, billed as an "Election Countdown," will take place from August 12-14 in Beverly Hills, California, and will also feature other politicians such as California Lt. Gov. Abel Maldonado, Rep. Dana Rohrabacher, and Nevada Republican gubernatorial nominee Brian Sandoval. Steele and Breitbart are scheduled to co-headline a welcome reception on the first evening, August 12.

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Topics: 2010 elections, Andrew Breitbart, Michael Steele, RNC

CO-SEN

Colorado Republican Ken Buck Caught On Tape (Again!) -- This Time Calling Birthers 'Dumbasses'


CO Senate candidate Ken Buck (R)

By the time his campaign's over, they're going to need the jaws of life to extract Ken Buck's foot from his mouth.

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Topics: CO-SEN, Jane Norton, Ken Buck

Roundup

TPMDC Morning Roundup

GOP Lawmakers Optimistic About 'No' Votes
The Washington Post reports that Congressional Republicans have become more comfortable with the "Party of No" label: "Republicans say polls suggest that they can oppose all of these initiatives by casting them into a broader critique of Democrats increasing the size of government and the budget deficit, even if their bills are individually popular with the public. 'We're very comfortable where we're at; we have very few members who feel endangered," said Rep. Tom Cole (Okla.), a veteran Republican and a deputy whip in the House. "We feel like we are reflecting a broader mood of dissatisfaction. Right now, the American people want us saying no.'"

Obama's Day Ahead
President Obama will receive the presidential daily briefing at 1:15 p.m. ET, will meet at 1:45 p.m. ET with senior advisers, and will receive the economic daily briefing at 2:45 p.m. ET. He will meet at 4 p.m. ET with Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. He will meet at 4:50 p.m. ET with House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-MD), Rep. Jim Lagenvin (D-RI), and Rep. Jim Sensenbrenner (R-WI). He will deliver remarks at 6 p.m. ET, at an event to commemorate the 20th Anniversary of the Americans with Disabilities Act.

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Topics: 2010 elections, Barack Obama, Chris Van Hollen, Elizabeth Warren, Gulf Coast Oil Spill, Joe Biden, Oil, Oil Spill, Roundup

NV-SEN

Don't Meet The Press: Sharron Angle's Head For The Hills Media Strategy


US Senate candidate Sharron Angle (R-NV)

Former Nevada state Rep. Sharron Angle, the Republican nominee against Democratic Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, has developed a love-hate relationship with the press. She sure seems to love the conservative press, who welcome her to say whatever she wants and even ask viewers for money -- and hates the mainstream media that have that annoying habit of constantly catching her saying damaging stuff. And if anything, the reassuring and friendly environment of conservative media interviews only leaves her more open to saying damaging stuff.

After Angle's victory in the June 8 primary, it quickly became clear that she wasn't exactly open with the press. During her first visit to Capitol Hill the very next week, she took back and side doors to avoid reporters. Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX), the chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, said that it was "going to take a few weeks" before the press would have access to her.

Back in Nevada just a couple days later, Angle fled a dogged local TV reporter who followed her through the parking lot, peppering her with tough questions that she wouldn't answer. Watch it. A couple days later, another local news station resorted to begging for an interview. They didn't get it.

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Topics: 2010 elections, Harry Reid, NV-SEN, Senate '10, Sharron Angle

FL-SEN

Rubio Vs. Crist Fight Shifts To Health Care


Former state House Speaker Marco Rubio (R-FL) and Gov. Charlie Crist (R-FL)

Marco Rubio's done dropping hints -- if Charlie Crist wants to appeal to Democratic voters, Rubio's going to treat him like a Democrat. And on issues like abortion, education, offshore drilling and now health care, Crist is giving Rubio some ammunition for that argument.

In fact, if you watched Rubio's new web video attacking Crist on health care reform, you'd have no idea that the Florida Senate race pits two men against each other who were at one time among the state's most powerful Republicans -- Rubio was the former speaker of the state House and Crist was the Republican Governor before he dropped out the party to run as an independent. In the video, Rubio makes Crist sound like a real Democrat.

Even before he left the GOP, Crist was shifting toward the left on issues like abortion and education. And this week comes the emergency legislative session Crist called to put an offshore oil drilling ban on the ballot this fall (that effort is expected to fail, and most say its real goal is to boost Crist's standing with environmentalists). Rubio, of course, has attacked Crist for every shift leftward.

Now comes a new front -- and one that could pit Crist against what's left of his GOP base. In a recent interview with the Wall Street Journal, Crist appeared to be shifting toward support for the Democratic health care bill.

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Topics: Charlie Crist, FL-SEN, Marco Rubio

CO-SEN

Rocky Mountain Lows: Colorado Republicans Stumbling Toward Primary Finish Line


Clockwise from top right, all from Colorado: Former Rep. Tom Tancredo (R), GOP primary candidates for Governor Scott McInnis and Dan Maes, GOP Senate primary candidates Jane Norton and Ken Buck.

With just days to go before the August 10 Senate and gubernatorial primaries, Colorado Republicans are tripping, sparring and in some cases, falling apart. Each of the four major Republican candidates in the Senate and gubernatorial races seems to have done at least some self-inflicted damage recently. It's created an odd dynamic in which many of these Republican candidates haven't been able to truly capitalize on their opponent's troubles -- simply because they've been too busy dealing with their own.

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Topics: CO-GOV, CO-SEN, Dan Maes, Jane Norton, Ken Buck, Scott McInnis, Tom Tancredo

Pres '12

It's A Landslide! Netroots Want Sarah Palin To Run For President


President Barack Obama and Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin

Well, it's official. Progressive Democrats want President Obama to face off against former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin in 2012 as the battle for the ages.

An early release of the Netroots Nation straw poll taken from Thursday through Sunday and obtained by TPM shows that attendees of the convention in Las Vegas overwhelmingly want Palin to mount a presidential bid.

Respondents were asked who would they "most like to see" as the GOP nominee to challenge Obama for reelection two years from now. Netroots attendees preferred Sarah Palin, with 48 percent of them choosing her. The next closest vote-getter was libertarian Rep. Ron Paul with 11 percent, followed by former Sen. Rick Santorum with 10 percent and former Gov. Mitt Romney with 9 percent.

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Topics: Barack Obama, Netroots Nation, Pres '12, Sarah Palin

Roundup

TPMDC Sunday Roundup

Geithner: Letting Bush Tax Cuts For Upper-Earners Expire Won't Hurt Job Growth
Appearing on This Week, Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner promoted the Obama administration's position on letting the 2001 Bush tax cuts expire for upper-income earners, while extending them for everyone else: "We think that's the responsible thing to do because we need to make sure we can show the world that they're willing as a country now to start to make some progress bringing down our long -- our long-term deficits," said Geithner, also adding: "Just letting those tax cuts that only go to 2 percent to 3 percent of Americans, the highest earning Americans in the country expire. I do not believe it will have a negative effect on growth."

Geithner: No Double-Dip Recession, But 'It's Going To Take Some Time To Heal This'
Appearing on Meet The Press, Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner said he did not think the economy would dip back into recession. "I think the most likely thing is, you see an economy that gradually strengthens -- over the next year or two. You see job growth start to come back again," said Geithner. "Again, investments expanding, manufacturing get a little stronger, exports better. Those are very encouraging signs." He also added, though, that more improvement remained to be done: "And I think most Americans understand it's going to take some time to heal this."

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Topics: 2010 elections, Abigail Thernstrom, Charlie Rangel, Chris Christie, Howard Dean, New Black Panthers, Newt Gingrich, Roundup, Sunday Shows, Timothy Geithner

NV-SEN

Silver State Showdown: Reid And Angle Barnstorm Las Vegas For Conventions


US Senate candidate Sharron Angle (R-NV) and Senator Harry Reid (D-NV)

Harry Reid and Sharron Angle were the boogeymen in the backdrop of this week's political conventions in Las Vegas, with activists on the liberal and conservative side of the spectrum setting their sights on defeating the other. Reid (D-NV) and Angle (R-NV) each spent less than two hours addressing their respective groups -- Netroots Nation and RightOnline -- but their electoral showdown was high on the agenda at each.

Reid barely mentioned Angle during his remarks to Netroots Saturday, promising instead that he'd keep fighting for progressive agenda items like the public option and immigration reform. (Reid faced little overall pushback even though progressives are frustrated with the progress of his Senate Democrats, but was confronted by Dan Choi over gay rights.) Other Netroots speakers did most of the attacking when it came to Angle, highlighting her positions on Social Security and accusing her of inciting violence by referencing "Second Amendment solutions" to get Reid out of Washington.

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Topics: 2010 elections, Harry Reid, NV-SEN, Netroots Nation, Right Online, Sharron Angle

Netroots Nation

Franken: 'If Republicans Take Over Congress, They'll Implement A Truly Dangerous Agenda' (VIDEO)


Sen. Al Franken (D-MN)

Las Vegas -- Sen. Al Franken (D-MN) last night told progressive activists and bloggers that they have a responsibility to stay engaged during the crucial midterm elections -- lest they allow Republicans to not just roll back the Obama administration's real gains, but enact an agenda he called "dangerous." Franken then acknowledged that it's a tough election year but, especially in Sen. Harry Reid's home state, Reid (D-NV) shouldn't be underestimated.

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Topics: Al Franken, Netroots Nation