You know it’s hard out there for an incumbent Senator when she has to stave off bad news by releasing an internal poll showing her down by nine to her Republican challenger. But that’s exactly what Sen. Blanche Lincon (D-AR) has done, attempting to respond to yesterday’s poll showing her down by 25 points to Rep. John Boozman (R) with numbers of her own showing her losing by a lot — but not as much.
According to Lincoln’s numbers, Boozman leads the race 45-36 with 18% undecided. A third party candidate draws 6% of the vote. The survey of 700 voters was conducted June 22-24 and has a margin of error of 3.7%.
The poll was first reported on the Tolbert Report, an Arkansas political blog that questioned what Lincoln would do in the face of a string of polls showing her reelection prospects in bad shape.
The strategy memo that came with the internal poll, which was conducted by notable Democratic firm Benenson Strategy Group, offers some insight into Lincoln’s strategy for calming nervous supporters — namely, call attention to her win in the June 8 Democratic primary run off.
“This most recent primary win was Lincoln’s 11th career victory,” Benenson strategist Pete Brodnitz writes in the memo. “Despite analysis that has concluded that Lincoln has little or no chance of winning, Lincoln has surprised analysts in the past and our current polling data indicates that the race is far from over.”
The race may not be over yet, but it does look like the GOP’s to lose at this point. The TPM Poll Average shows Boozman ahead 57.0-31.3 in a head-to-head matchup.
Evan McMorris-Santoro
Evan McMorris-Santoro has covered politics for TPM since 2009. Before that, he was a reporter at National Journal’s Hotline covering election 2008. He started his career covering local politics at newspapers in TN and his native NC.
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