An internal survey of the North Carolina Senate race released by Democrat Elaine Marshall’s campaign shows state Secretary of State Marshall narrowly ahead of her opponent, incumbent Republican Sen. Richard Burr. The poll, conducted by Lake Research Partners (D), has Marshall at 37%, Burr at 35%, and Libertarian candidate Mike Beitler at 5%.
Burr “is the most vulnerable incumbent Republican Senator in the country,” write pollsters Celinda Jake and Joshua Ulibarri. “Elaine Marshall is in a strong position to defeat Burr if she has the funds to competitively communicate her message.”
The internal poll is at odds with the most recent public polling of the race, which has shown Marshall trailing Burr by ten or more points points. A SurveyUSA poll from July 11 found Burr polling at 46% to Marshall’s 36%, and a Rasmussen poll from July 6 found Burr leading Marshall 52%-37%.
The TPM Poll Average reflects the public polling, and puts Burr ahead of Marshall 47.9%-39.9%. The margin of error for the Marshall campaign’s internal poll is ±4.0 percentage points.