Poll: Californians Oppose Legalizing Marijuana ... But Just Barely

This November, Californians will have their first chance in nearly 40 years to legalize marijuana. Will the initiative be a hit, or is legalization just a pipe dream?

Other states have tried and failed to legalize marijuana in recent years, but polls suggest an initiative on this November's California ballot may have a real chance of passing.

According to a Field poll (PDF) released Friday, voters in California narrowly oppose the state's Proposition 19, a ballot initiative that would legalize the cultivation and possession of marijuana for people 21 and older. Forty-eight percent of likely voters oppose Prop. 19; 44 percent support it.

A peek inside the poll's demographic breakdown reveals some interesting divides. Among voters who had heard of Proposition 19 before being surveyed, more support the measure (48 percent) than oppose it (44 percent). By large margins, Democrats, residents of San Francisco, and voters aged 18-29 back Proposition 19, while Republicans and voters 65 and older are against it.

Mark DiCamillo, the director of the Field Poll, said that this breakdown may be good news for legalization proponents. Because support for Proposition 19 is higher among those who had heard of the initiative than among those who hadn't, "proponents might say that all we need to do is educate them, and we might be able to win them over," DiCamillo said.

California has been through this before. In 1972, a similar initiative -- also named Proposition 19 -- failed by a 33-point margin. The state's latest ballot measure was spawned, at least in part, by California's current revenue crisis. In May of last year, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) said that he supports "an open debate" about legalizing and taxing marijuana as a means to raise income. The California State Board of Equalization has estimated that, with a $50-per-ounce tax on marijuana, the state could raise $1.4 billion of revenue each year.

DiCamillo believes that the revenue argument may be the strongest one in the arsenal of legalization supporters. "On the proponent side, the main argument that will have salience with voters is that it provides the state with a new source of tax revenue when the state really needs it," DiCamillo said. "If proponents can make that case to people who hadn't heard about it, that can win people over."

Others are less optimistic. Allen St. Pierre, the executive director of NORML, a national organization that advocates legalization, said that the latest Field Poll demonstrates how support for legalization wanes when respondents are asked about a specific ballot initiative. A Field Poll conducted last April, St. Pierre points out, showed 56 percent of Californians generally supporting the decriminalization of marijuana possession. "To see this poll [the latest Field Poll] be decidedly lower seems to indicate that when the question is better honed, that it definitely sharpens the political attention of Californians," St. Pierre said.

St. Pierre also suggested that legalization initiatives perform better during presidential election years as opposed to midterm election years, when fewer people vote. "When lots of people come out to the polls," St. Pierre said, "historically, we do very well."

Still, St. Pierre predicts a close race. "It's going to win or lose by 2 percent. Seeing this data now, maybe one could dampen down one's expectations to a lower number," Pierre said. He has a sunnier outlook on the next election cycle. "In 2012, likely, Californians will have another chance to vote on this. The largest state in the union is likely to lead the way on this issue."

Californians who support legalizing marijuana have company in the region. Although an initiative in the state of Washington similar to Proposition 19 didn't make it onto the ballot, 52 percent of Washington voters support "removing state civil and criminal penalties for possession or use of marijuana," according to a Washington Poll conducted in May (PDF). And a CBS poll released on April 20 of this year--get it?--found that 55 percent of adults living in the West support legalization.

Nationwide, though, Americans aren't so accepting. That same CBS poll found that adults oppose legalizing marijuana 51 to 44 percent, and President Obama, in a town hall meeting broadcast last March, memorably laughed at the idea.

The latest Field poll surveyed 1,005 likely voters from June 22 - July 5. Its margin of error is ±3.2.

Thomas Rhiel is TPM's polling fellow. Intern Marc Kilstein contributed reporting to this article.