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Poll: Meg Whitman Trails Jerry Brown -- And Voters Don't Like Self-Financed Campaigns


CA-GOV candidates Jerry Brown (D) and Meg Whitman (R-CA)

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The new survey of the California gubernatorial race by Public Policy Polling (D) shows Democratic state Attorney General and ex-Governor Jerry Brown leading Republican former eBay CEO Meg Whitman -- with some possible resentment of Whitman's heavy self-financing for the race.

The horserace: Brown 46%, Whitman 40%. The survey of registered voters has a ±3.95% margin of error. In the previous poll from late May, two weeks before Whitman won the Republican primary, Brown led by a healthier 48%-36%. The TPM Poll Average has Brown leading by 44.9%-42.4%.

In a key follow-up question, respondents were asked: "Do you think there should be a legal limit on how much money a candidate can donate to his or her own campaign?" The answer was 52% yes, 33% no.

The next question: "Do you think a working-class person could successfully run for statewide or federal office in California today?" Here it is a nearly identical 53% no, to 31% yes.

Whitman, of course, has spent $90 million from her personal fortune on her gubernatorial campaign. Indeed, the former eBay head has stated that she could end up placing a maximum bid of $150 million for the office. But this poll suggests that at a certain point her spending could end up doing more harm than good.

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July 28, 2010 9:37 AM   

Self-financed candidates have an abysmal success record.

"When it comes to influencing voters, a candidate’s ability to raise money matters far more than her ability to spend it."

http://adambrown.info/docs/research/Brown-2009-What-Money-Cant-Buy.pdf

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July 28, 2010 12:34 PM    in reply to FreeRider

Whitman never had a chance. After sperding $80 million on a primary she barely got a million votes. She's already proven that no amount of money can get people to like her.

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July 28, 2010 1:30 PM    in reply to FreeRider

Self-financed? Hey, Brown franchised his head to a trailer hitch company, for millions. Is that wrong?

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July 28, 2010 1:46 PM    in reply to FreeRider

Thank you, Prof. Brown, for making this paper available! I've scanned it on screen, and will take some time to absorb it.

Again, Thanks!

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July 28, 2010 2:11 PM    in reply to FreeRider

re: abysmal success record

At least they do in California. While California is crazy in some ways and seems to love mean-spirited "strong daddy" Republican governors in this majority-blue state -- and thought electing the Terminator twice was a good idea, amongst many other governor disasters -- I can't recall a single self-financed pol who's won in the state. Arianna Huffington's then-closeted husband was one of many who failed to buy a post here.

At least the consultants will walk away rich after this election.

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July 28, 2010 9:45 AM   

Meg Whitman is a woman who has popularized the insane idea that we can run a national economy selling cow creamers to each other on eBay. She is an incompetent. She was found guilty of assaulting a staff member, and had to pay 150,000 to the woman to settle the charges. She is in favor of the H-1B and other job-stealing visas. She will lose badly.

I hope she spends all her money on the losing campaign.

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July 28, 2010 12:09 PM    in reply to Numbersguy

For the record, Meg Whitman was NOT "found guilty of assaulting a staff member."

Rather, she settled a civil case with a former eBay employee for $200,000 without ever having to stipulate as to the veracity of the charges, after the latter filed a lawsuit alleging she had been assaulted by Whitman. Further, the plaintiff is prohibited by the terms of the settlement from discussing the case in public, which is why we've never heard directly from the woman who filed the lawsuit.

And no, it is NOT the same thing. Under California law, a defendant may only be found guilty or convicted in a criminal trial upon a unanimous verdict by the jury. The case against Meg Whitman differs markedly in that the charges were filed in civil court by a private citizen rather than in criminal court bt the State of California, and had it gone to trial, she could have been found liable for damages by three-quarters of a jury voting in the favor of the plaintiff, based upon a clear preponderence of evidence.

It's perfectly okay to publicly infer from the $200,000 settlement that Meg Whitman did not want this case to go to trial for officially unspecified but still very obvious reasons. However, when you say eMeg's been "found guilty" of assault, you are wrongly implying that she's been convicted in criminal court of a misdemeanor or felony, when she most assuredly has not.

Now that you know the difference, in the future please rein in the hyperbole. While it might take more effort and thought, you can certainly make a solid case against Meg Whitman's gubernatorial candidacy without wildly overstating or exaggerating it.

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July 28, 2010 12:39 PM    in reply to Donald from Hawaii

All true but it does show that she's not likely to have a good time in Sacramento. In politics you don't get very far by pushing State Senators around. You just get impeached.

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July 28, 2010 1:07 PM    in reply to Donald from Hawaii

Actually, we *have* heard from Young Mi Kim:

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/15/us/politics/15whitman.html

...but, of course, not about the actual cash terms of the settlement. You're right about that much.

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July 28, 2010 9:51 AM   

When someone like Whitman bankrolls her own campaign and wins, rather than rely on huge donations from corporate donors, she then only owes herself huge favors. Despite that, the corporations will benefit anyway. Three cheers for California voters for their acute sense of smell.

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July 28, 2010 9:54 AM   

It's not the self-funding as much as it's ridiculous levels of self-funding. It's wall to wall ads and folks are likely getting sick of them and we're 97 days out yet.

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July 28, 2010 1:20 PM    in reply to Walter Mitty

It's like throwing a birthday party for yourself and paying people to be your friends.

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July 28, 2010 10:10 AM   

It bothers me a lot that Whitman has never had sufficient interest in politics to vote before this year. Now she wants to be governor?

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July 28, 2010 10:36 AM    in reply to toxophilite

Yeah, who are all these middle-aged people, dripping in money but never previously registered to vote? Talk about parasites!

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July 28, 2010 1:03 PM    in reply to toxophilite

It is just astounding that she and Fiorina can't see how toxic this point is. Self-financed candidates are already objects of suspicion to voters who are wary of bored millionaires looking for the next thing to put on their resumes. To run for governor of a state--particularly one as large as California--as your initial attempt at public office after years of not bothering to vote imply confirms that you're looking to buy yourself a new hobby and have no depth of interest in public service.

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July 28, 2010 1:09 PM    in reply to shortstop

"simply confirms," not "imply confirms."

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July 28, 2010 10:15 AM   

Holy shit! Vapid Whitman has spent $90 million on the race??!! She needs to lose for the sake of California, and also so that amount of cash lost really burns her on top of the election loss.

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July 28, 2010 10:52 AM    in reply to kunda311

I was just going to post the same thing. 90M dollars?!!?.
Damn.

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July 28, 2010 12:13 PM    in reply to It's Pat

I think that's more than Ross Perot spent in 1992. I'm not sure how it adjusts for inflation but it's probably still in excess.

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July 28, 2010 12:59 PM    in reply to Jon Lester

Perot had more dollars than sense. I admire his advocacy of veterans and MIAs, but found little else to like about him. As one funny person said of Perot, "Half mongoose-half Ferengi."

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July 29, 2010 12:27 PM    in reply to windowpane

I remember a doctor's letter in an issue of The American Spectator, around 1993-94, in which she said that knowing Perot was responsible for the original Medicare software was all the reason she needed not to vote for him.

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July 28, 2010 1:00 PM    in reply to kunda311

She could always claim that this is her way of stimulating the economy.

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July 28, 2010 10:30 AM   

Voters don't like the moneyed elite pretending to be populist and attempting to buy an election?!?

WTF?!? What about the fact that Queen Whitman is on the wrong side of almost everything importmant to California and Claifornians?

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July 28, 2010 10:42 AM   

She was selling tax cuts and deregulation the other day as California's way forward.

I can't believe people are still falling for this plutocratic formula of Reagan's that has failed time and time again to show any results for anyone, but the politicians who sell it, and the rich and business interests who pay them.

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July 28, 2010 10:49 AM   

People in CA have an issue with the amount of money she's spending while California's public schoolchildren are suffering. The amount Witless has spent could provide assistance to several struggling school districts. It could keep schools from closing, reinstitute athletics programs in districts that have had to eliminate athletics, reinstitute a variety of other programs.

I live in the Bay Area, and that seems to be the biggest criticism of Witless.

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July 28, 2010 11:17 AM    in reply to boyoboy

Whitman's an idiot, but don't lump in H1-B's with her lunacy. The fact is that America, for all the money it dumps into higher education, simply doesn't produce all the skilled workers our economy needs (too many folks like me who chose history over engineering and law school over going back and getting a lab tech certificate). Eli Lilly, for example, has had no problem getting US trained people with PhD's to run labs, lawyers and salespeople, but for years had to import mid-level scientists and lab techs to work in Indianapolis because they just couldn't fill those spots, no matter how hard they recruited. The local vocational schools finally (about 5 years ago) started offering an AA in lab tech skills, but I'm not sure it has alleviated the need for bringing in folks from overseas. Likewise, hospitals have brought in nurses from the Phillipines for years because our healthcare system needs LPNs and even RNs in greater numbers than our educational system produces.

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July 28, 2010 11:19 AM    in reply to calbearinillinois

Somehow this comment got misassigned, it should be up above in response to the rante about H1-B visas. Sorry for any confusion.

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July 28, 2010 12:42 PM    in reply to calbearinillinois

Your comment may in fact be true. Now I don't know what type of salary you may get, but there is a point that is missing. Lab techs, those with a 2 year AA degree, earn significantly less dollars than a MT (medical technologist with a 4 year degree). Historically, lab techs knew how to perform a task, but had no idea about if the tasks was performed correctly and if the results made sense? As a result, many who were actually interested in a well paid career chose to complete a program that gave them the greater income and knowledge about what the heck they were doing.

The lack of background may have been exactly what E-L (lower wage earning Lab Techs)was looking for.

For the record, one should not compare the shortage of nurses to a shortage of LT's. The nursing shortage could also be reflected in the low wages that RN historically earned. As fewer went into the field, nursing programs downsized/closed. The same was true for Medical Technologists. Fortunately, some of that is changing.

When starting to throw around misleading terms or combining different categories of healthcare professionals into "groups", underscores the lack of knowledge of the healthcare system and who does what type of job.

Yes, off topic, but clarification of titles is crucial when addressing the technological and educational differences within these groups and why there is a lack of healthcare professionals.

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July 28, 2010 1:06 PM    in reply to afisher

Yes, and an electorate not getting the facts right is how republican's keep getting elected here in California.

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July 28, 2010 1:33 PM    in reply to calbearinillinois

"Eli Lilly, for example, has had no problem getting US trained people with PhD's to run labs, lawyers and salespeople, but for years had to import mid-level scientists and lab techs to work in Indianapolis because they just couldn't fill those spots, no matter how hard they recruited."

What happened to recruiting, educating and promoting from within? I'd bet money there are plenty of toads in the bowls of Eli Lilly who would want those jobs.

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July 28, 2010 10:53 AM   

Buy It Now!

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July 28, 2010 11:05 AM   

When looking at polling numbers, you also have to look at the amount that Witless has spent on advertising, while Brown has spent very little. He has done very little campaigning through advertising. Witless has rallies in Roseville and Orange County (all Republican strongholds), and Brown has been campaigning by meeting with small groups, such as neighborhood associations.

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July 28, 2010 11:23 AM   

Survey USA used to be the gold standard in polling, is now the outlier in every race they poll.

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July 28, 2010 11:50 AM   

GEE! Jerry hasn't spent much money yet. Wait till the election is close. Most voters today have only short term memory. So, maybe Whitman is wasting her dough.

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July 28, 2010 12:59 PM    in reply to bubbalewy Hussein O'Bamarama

Hey, folks, there's one sure way to make sure Meggie is wasting her dough, and you know what that is: donate to Brown and do everything you can to help get out the vote for him. There couldn't be more at stake for California.

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July 28, 2010 1:05 PM    in reply to bubbalewy Hussein O'Bamarama

You mean close in time, right? You're not saying you expect the numbers to tighten, right? Right?

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July 28, 2010 1:03 PM   

It seens that if the story of the campaign becomes how much one candidate is spending, that would be bound to hurt that candidate.

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July 28, 2010 5:09 PM    in reply to ericf

Even worse for her is the other prominent story of the campaign. Ever since she went to war with our nurses' union, one of the biggeest stories has been headed "Whitman vs Nurses".
With nurses ranked as the most trusted profession in America, this is not a good place for her to be.

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July 28, 2010 1:06 PM   

I live in ultra-conservative Kern County and can count on my fingers the number of times I have heard Jerry Brown referred to lately as Governor Moonbeam. Brown is one of the few true visionaries in government and has learned from his mistakes. But around here, they are still waiting for the second coming of Ronald Reagan.

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July 28, 2010 1:06 PM   

Hey Meg, just send me the thousand dollars you would have spent for my vote and I will seriously consider voting for you.

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July 28, 2010 1:14 PM   

Indeed, the former eBay head has stated that she could end up placing a maximum bid of $150 million for the office.

I hope Jerry makers her spend every cent of that $150M - only to lose.

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July 28, 2010 1:25 PM   

So much for her fiscal conservative argument.

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July 28, 2010 2:34 PM   

I'm so tired of Meg that I've stopped watching the news. Seriously, I've stopped watching the news. No local news, no national news, no cable news. It's pretty much the Meg show all the time when the news is on with the same repetitive nonsense where she sounds all-knowing but says nothing.

At least these California news stations are making some money since Meg's paying for all that airtime. I just hope the employees at those stations are spending Meg's money in California.

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July 28, 2010 4:50 PM   

I hopre she spends every penny she has and that Jerry whoops her ass big time in November.

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July 28, 2010 4:53 PM    in reply to oleeb

Oleeb, we need to mark the calendar! We absolutely 100% agree on something! There's hope for the country, yet!

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July 28, 2010 5:04 PM   

So, in her e-bay driven world, the governorship of CA is worth $150M, huh?

That is wrong on so many levels...

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July 28, 2010 5:06 PM   

Jerry Brown is like that Teddy Bear--or whatever--we dragged around for years. He's warm and cuddly and honorable and unafraid. I think he's a lock.

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July 30, 2010 8:29 PM   

Her ads are backfiring with me and everyone I know. Does she think this is Texas and lies don't matter? They DO matter and hearing the same lies every 10 minutes has made me despise this woman. Not a single Republican friend of mine is voting for her! They actually like Brown...sometimes experience is a good thing Meggie!

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