Arizona

Brewer Finally Backpedals: I Was Wrong About Headless Bodies

Ben Frumin | September 4, 2010, 10:01AM

AZ Gov. Jan Brewer (R)

Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer (R) is finally backpedaling on her bogus claim that headless bodies have been found in the Arizona desert, the alleged product of illegal immigration.

"That was an error, if I said that," Brewer told the Associated Press yesterday. "I misspoke, but you know, let me be clear, I am concerned about the border region because it continues to be reported in Mexico that there's a lot of violence going on and we don't want that going into Arizona."

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NH-SEN

Magellan Poll: Ayotte Leads NH-SEN Republican Primary -- Tea Party-Backed Lamontagne Gaining Ground

Eric Kleefeld | September 3, 2010, 4:21PM

US Senator Kelly Ayotte (R-NH)

The new Magellan Strategies (R) poll of the New Hampshire Senate primary shows former state Attorney General Kelly Ayotte, the establishment choice for the GOP nomination, leading the wide-open field. But it's not a sure thing, with plenty of volatility in the numbers.

The numbers: Ayotte 34%, former state Board of Education chairman Ovide Lamontagne 21%, businessman Bill Binnie 17%, and businessman Jim Bender 13%. The survey of likely primary voters has a ±3.3% margin of error.

The previous Magellan poll from May had Ayotte at 38%, Binnie at 29%, Lamontagne at 9%, and Bender at only 4%. The TPM Poll Average has Ayotte at 36%, Binnie 23%, Lamontagne 15%, and Bender 8.5%.

The primary will be held on September 14.

FL-SEN

Florida State Senate Dem Leader Endorses Indy Charlie Crist For Senate

Eric Kleefeld | September 3, 2010, 3:48PM

Florida state Senate Minority Leader Al Lawson (D) and Gov. Charlie Crist (I-FL)

Gov. Charlie Crist (I-FL), the ex-Republican who left his former party to run for Senate as an independent, has received the endorsement of a top-ranking Florida Democrat: State Senate Minority Leader Al Lawson.

"Florida desperately needs an independent senator in Washington who will fight for good jobs and economic opportunity, a quality education for every child, and Social Security for all of our seniors regardless of what the political party bosses want," Lawson said in a statement. "Charlie Crist will be exactly that Senator, and I am proud to endorse his candidacy."

This is certainly a big get for Crist, on multiple levels. Obviously, snagging the support of a top state Democrat is as clear a sign as he needs for Dem voters that it's admissible to vote for him. It also feeds into the widely held narrative -- never confirmed or denied by Crist -- that he would caucus as a Democrat in Washington.

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Ron Wyden

NRSC Says Wyden Has Lost Touch With Voters From The Evergreen State -- But He's From Oregon

Brian Beutler | September 3, 2010, 3:19PM

Sen. Ron Wyden (D-OR)

If the NRSC wants to paint Oregon Senator Ron Wyden as an out of touch D.C. Democrat, they're gonna have to try harder.

"Despite his claims that he is 'like Oregon,' it's clear from Ron Wyden's record that he has simply lost touch with his constituents during his 14 years in Washington," reads a recent NRSC press release. "Senator Wyden is a career politician who has championed a reckless economic agenda that has driven our national debt to a staggering $13 trillion and failed to create jobs as the Evergreen State's unemployment has skyrocketed to 10.6 percent."

But it's hard to blame Wyden for abandoning the voters of the Evergreen State, because it's a totally different state from the one he represents in the Senate. Washington is the Evergreen State. Wyden enjoys the distinction of representing the Beaver State, Orgeon.

(H/T: Eugene Weekly)

CO-GOV

Ken Buck Recants Support Of Dan Maes

Eric Lach | September 3, 2010, 3:07PM

CO-GOV candidate Dan Maes (R) and CO-SEN candidate Ken Buck (R)

More bad news for Dan Maes. Colorado Republican Senate nominee Ken Buck has withdrawn his support for Maes, the party's gubernatorial nominee, according to the local CBS affiliate.

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Tax Cuts

Baker: Mixed Reviews For White House Economic Recovery Plan

Brian Beutler | September 3, 2010, 2:39PM

President Barack Obama receives a briefing from National Economic Council Director Larry Summers, left, in the Oval Office. At right is Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel.

Whether it's a trial balloon or the future of U.S. economic policy, the White House is reportedly considering two measures -- a payroll tax holiday and a permanent extension of the research and development tax credit -- to reduce unemployment, now stuck at 9.6 percent.

The plan -- such as it is -- will make for interesting politics. Republicans will have to choose to either side with the Democrats or oppose tax cuts. And Democrats will have to adopt, even canonize, Republican orthodoxy on taxes. But is it good policy? It gets mixed reviews from progressive economist Dean Baker.

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Cordoba House

Poll: NYC Opposes Muslim Center -- But Acknowledges Right To Build

Eric Kleefeld | September 3, 2010, 2:15PM

Protesters against a proposed community center and mosque near ground zero called Cordoba House.

The New York Times polled residents of New York City, asking for people's views on the Park 51 Muslim community center set to be built two blocks from Ground Zero. And from the poll, a picture emerges of a city that opposes the building of the center -- but simultaneously acknowledges by a wide margin the right of Muslims to build it.

"Do you favor or oppose the building of a mosque and Islamic community center two blocks from Ground Zero?" Here the answer was 35% favor to 50% oppose. Interestingly, the poll continued to show a pattern that has emerged before, of opposition actually being lower in Manhattan itself, at only 41%.

"Do you think people have the right to build a mosque and Islamic community center near Ground Zero, or don't they have that right?" The answer becomes 62% that they have that right, to 28% who say that Muslims do not have that right. (A more general question came immediately before, asking about any house of worship near Ground Zero -- the answer was 72%-21%.)

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Jan Brewer

Jan Brewer: I'm Done With Debates (VIDEO)

Jillian Rayfield | September 3, 2010, 2:01PM

Gov. Jan Brewer (R-AZ)

If at first you awkwardly stumble through your opening statement, why bother trying again?

Gov. Jan Brewer (R) has put the kibosh on all future debates with her Arizona gubernatorial opponent Terry Goddard (D), after her rather embarrassing display at Wednesday's debate. "I don't believe that things come out in proper context in an adversarial atmosphere," she defended herself.

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CO-GOV

Even Tea Partiers Start Turning On Dan Maes In Colorado

Eric Lach | September 3, 2010, 1:10PM

Colorado Republican gubernatorial nominee Dan Maes.

Colorado Republican gubernatorial nominee Dan Maes' campaign is getting pretty lonely.

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NV-SEN

Angle: Extending Unemployment Insurance 'Doesn't Benefit Anyone'

Eric Kleefeld | September 3, 2010, 12:14PM

Sharron Angle

Sharron Angle is continuing to rail against unemployment benefits -- going so far as to say that extending the payments "really doesn't benefit anyone."

Angle has previously said that "We really have spoiled our citizenry" with unemployment benefits -- a comment that has made its way into a Harry Reid attack ad. Now, as the Huffington Post reports, Angle made her latest comment Wednesday on the radio show of conservative talker Heidi Harris.

"The problem here, the problem here is what always happens with progressives. They want to put band-aids on problems rather than put real solutions to problems," said Angle. "People don't want to be unemployed. They want to have real, full-time and permanent jobs with a future. That's what they want.

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Government Shutdown

Choke It, Starve It, Shrink It: What That Government Shutdown Talk Is Really About

Christina Bellantoni | September 3, 2010, 11:29AM

Alex Cortes of DeFundIt.org

Now that we know the Republicans have settled on a campaign strategy pledging to "defund" health care reform if they win back Congressional power, it's time to take a look at what that actually means. Could it be a precursor to a Republican showdown with President Obama repeating the 1995 and 1996 government shutdowns?

AFL-CIO President Richard Trumka said he thinks the Republicans are hinting at shutdown with their promises to defund everything.

"They want to shrink it to where it doesn't work, and then when it doesn't work, they go, 'Look! It doesn't work, get rid of it.' And that's been their strategy all along," Trumka told TPM Thursday after speaking to reporters at a breakfast hosted by the Christian Science Monitor. "They don't talk about how to make things effective; they talk about how to get rid of them."

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IL-SEN

Poll: Kirk And Giannoulias Tied In IL-SEN

Eric Lach | September 3, 2010, 11:25AM

IL-SEN candidates Alexi Giannoulias (D) and Rep. Mark Kirk (R)

A new Tribune/WGN-TV poll of the Illinois Senate race shows Democrat Alexi Giannoulias and Republican Mark Kirk tied at 34% each, with 22% of voters still undecided.

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CA-GOV

SurveyUSA Poll: Whitman Leads Brown By 47%-40% In CA-GOV Race

Eric Kleefeld | September 3, 2010, 11:14AM

California gubernatiorial candidate Meg Whitman (R-CA)

The new SurveyUSA poll of the California gubernatorial race gives Republican Meg Whitman an expanding lead over Democrat Jerry Brown.

The numbers: Whitman 47%, Brown 40%. The survey of likely voters has a ±4.2% margin of error. In the previous Survey USA poll from three weeks ago, Whitman was only ahead by a narrow 44%-43%.

The TPM Poll Average shows Whitman taking a narrow lead of 44.8%-43.8%.

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CA-SEN

SurveyUSA Poll: Fiorina Leads Boxer By Two Points

Eric Kleefeld | September 3, 2010, 11:04AM

Carly Fiorina (R-CA), and Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA)

The new SurveyUSA poll of the California Senate race gives Republican Carly Fiorina a narrow edge over incumbent Democrat Barbara Boxer.

The numbers: Fiorina 48%, Boxer 46%. The survey of likely voters has a ±4.2% margin of error. In the previous SurveyUSA poll from three weeks ago, Fiorina was actually given a wider lead of 47%-42%.

Other pollsters have generally been kinder to Boxer, showing her with narrow leads. As such, the TPM Poll Average gives Boxer a slight edge of 46.3%-44.4%, though Fiorina is also gaining. In either case, it seems clear that this race will be hotly fought through election day.

Full coverage of the race here.

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Unemployment

Rosy Rhetoric On New Unemployment Numbers Doesn't Match Reality For Many Americans

Megan Carpentier | September 3, 2010, 11:02AM

Job seekers line up for a job fair in midtown in New York.

On the cusp of America's celebration of labor's place in American life, the Labor Department released its monthly review of employment statistics to relatively optimistic reactions from the White House and the media, despite the fact that 54,000 fewer Americans had jobs at the end of August than did in July.

The cause for all the celebration is that the 54,000 net new unemployed Americans were mostly Census workers who expected to be unemployed by September, so the overall increase in unemployment wasn't really that bad. But, a deeper look at the numbers belies the rosy rhetoric.

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FL-GOV

Rick Scott Goes After Sink And Obama In New Ad (VIDEO)

Ben Frumin | September 3, 2010, 11:02AM

Florida Republican gubernatorial nominee Rick Scott is up with a new ad linking Democrat Alex Sink to President Obama, just as the Republican Governors Association is reportedly transferring $2 million to the Florida Republican Party to help Scott attack his Dem opponent.

The new ad shows footage of Obama urging Florida voters to back Sink, before knocking "liberal Alex Sink" for supporting the president's "government takeover of health care" and "trillion dollar stimulus bill."

Scott ran an extremely negative (and successful) campaign against Republican establishment choice Bill McCollum in the primary, and clearly isn't pulling any punches heading into the general election.

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Barack Obama

White House Jobs Package Could Come Next Week

Brian Beutler | September 3, 2010, 10:36AM

President Obama

There were no details on the White House's forthcoming jobs package in President Obama's Rose Garden address this morning. Instead, he'll promised to announce them just before Congress returns.

"I will be addressing a broader package of ideas next week," Obama said.

One of the few questions he answered came from a reporter who asked whether he regretted branding the past several weeks as "Recovery Summer."

"I don't regret the notion that we are moving forward because of the steps that we've taken," Obama said.

NV-SEN

Rasmussen Poll: Reid Ahead By Three In NV-SEN Race

Eric Kleefeld | September 3, 2010, 9:27AM

US Senate candidate Sharron Angle (R-NV) and Senator Harry Reid (D-NV)

The new Rasmussen poll of the Nevada Senate race gives Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid a narrow lead over Republican nominee Sharron Angle.

The initial numbers show the two tied at 45%-45%. After undecided voters were pushed with a follow-up question, 50%-47% including the leaners -- an unusual instance of undecideds breaking to the incumbent, though the difference is within the margin of error. The survey of likely voters has a ±4% margin of error.

In the previous Rasmussen poll from two weeks ago, Reid and Angle were tied 47%-47% on the initial question, with Angle taking an edge of 50%-48% with leaners included.

The TPM Poll Average currently puts Reid ahead by 47.6%-44.3%.

Tax Cuts

Would Republicans Support Tax Cuts To Boost The Economy?

Brian Beutler | September 3, 2010, 9:04AM

Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY), Rep. John Boehner (R-OH) and Rep. Eric Cantor (R-VA)

After watching the economy swing toward recovery then sputter then grind to a halt, the Obama administration is reportedly -- finally -- drafting a new legislative proposal meant to spur job growth, two months before the midterm elections in November. None dare call it stimulus, but the package, according to The Washington Post, will be designed to appeal to Republicans. It could include a payroll-tax holiday and an extension of the recently expired research-and-development tax credit, and could cost hundreds of billions of dollars.

The reaction on the Hill hasn't really materialized yet -- members are still away on recess, and the proposal hasn't been widely circulated. But the prospect of tax cuts must have Republicans giddy with anticipation, right? Maybe.

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Carl Paladino

Could Carl Paladino Snatch The NY-GOV Primary From Mosque-Hating Rick Lazio's Hands?

Jillian Rayfield | September 3, 2010, 8:32AM

Carl Paladino and Rick Lazio

Here's how it was supposed to go: Republican Rick Lazio wins the gubernatorial nod at New York's state party convention and rides it all the way to a general election trouncing at the hands of Democrat Andrew Cuomo.

Carl Paladino had other plans. The Tea Party-lovin', racist email-sending, welfare-recipients-to-prisons-proposing millionaire who collected enough signatures to force a primary with Lazio September 14, could just snatch the party nomination out of Lazio's mosque-hating grasp.

A Qunnipiac poll this week shows Paladino trailing by 12 points. But Lazio's lead of 47-35 has shrunk since the last Quinnipiac poll, at the end of July, when Lazio led 39-23. A Siena poll from mid-August also shows Lazio's lead shrinking, from 40-20 in Siena's mid-July poll to 43-30 by August.

The TPM Poll Average finds Lazio leading Paladino 46.3%-34.8%. Check out the trend lines. Lazio still has a double-digit lead, of course, but Paladino has been closing the gap.

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2010 elections

Dems Hope That Delaware Republicans Follow Alaska's Lead

Christina Bellantoni | September 3, 2010, 7:51AM

Rand Paul (R-KY), Ken Buck (R-CO), Sharron Angle (R-NV), Joe Miller (R-AK), Kelly Ayotte (R-NH), Christine O'Donnell (R-DE)

"We have a chance to win this race friends!"

Those recent words from the Tea Party Express in an email to supporters following Delaware's Republican primary might strike fear in the hearts of Republicans, but they are giving Democrats a sliver of hope that this fall won't be a complete wipeout.

On Sept. 14, Delaware Republicans will head to the polls to choose between Rep. Mike Castle and tea party darling Christine O'Donnell. The winner will face Democrat Chris Coons in November for the open seat, currently held by a Democrat. Castle has long been considered the frontrunner and clear November favorite, so much so that there's almost no polling between O'Donnell and Coons. But Democrats say that they think she's easy to beat -- and Republicans in D.C. privately admit that her candidacy is deeply flawed and that they are rooting for Castle.

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2010 elections

Rob Miller Ad Hammers Joe Wilson: 'I'll Never Outsource S.C. Jobs' (VIDEO)

Christina Bellantoni | September 3, 2010, 6:00AM

SC-02 Candidate Rob Miller (D)

You can expect to see a lot more ads like this one from Democrats for the next two months. Rob Miller, running against Joe Wilson (R) of "You lie!" fame in South Carolina's 2nd Congressional district, today is going on television with this ad spotlighting voters worried about losing their jobs thanks to companies outsourcing to other countries.

TPM exclusively obtained an early copy of the ad, which is Miller's second of the cycle. Miller, who attracted national attention from eager Democrats after Wilson shouted at President Obama during his address to Congress in fall 2009, isn't hitting that controversy with this spot.

Instead, Miller slams Wilson for supporting the Central American Free Trade Agreement, saying that his rival voted for "an unfair trade deal that sent thousands of South Carolina jobs overseas." Workers from the 2nd district (where unemployment is 11.2 percent) each chime in, telling Wilson: "You lost touch with people here. Congressman Wilson: You ought to be ashamed of yourself."

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John Bolton

John Bolton For President? (VIDEO)

Eric Kleefeld | September 2, 2010, 6:37PM

Could John Bolton -- the former Bush-era Ambassador to the United Nations and permanent cheerleader for bombing Iran -- run for president? Or does he just long for attention?

During recent appearances on Fox News, Bolton has been asked whether he would run for president. "Well, you know it's a great honor when people ask me that question, and I have been asked that question," Bolton said on Wednesday. "I don't think anybody involved with politics should worry about that until after the elections this fall."

He also said: "I'm not saying no. That's right."

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AZ-GOV

Jan Brewer Speechless On Headless Bodies (VIDEO)

Jillian Rayfield | September 2, 2010, 4:23PM

Governor Jan Brewer (R-AZ)

Fresh off a trainwreck of an opening statement in her gubernatorial debate last night, Gov. Jan Brewer (R-AZ) wouldn't answer reporters' questions about her erroneous claim that undocumented immigrants beheaded people in her state.

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Social Security

House Democrats To Obama: No Cuts To Social Security

Brian Beutler | September 2, 2010, 3:38PM

Rep. Raul Grijalva (D-AZ)

Democrats led by Congressional Progressive Caucus co-chair Raul Grijalva are drawing a line in the sand before the White House's fiscal commission: If your report recommends cuts or other changes to Social Security, they will say, you'll lose our support.

In a letter to be sent to President Obama, obtained by TPM, House Democrats will pledge to vote against any legislation based on the commission's report unless Social Security is taken off the table.

"We oppose any cuts to Social Security benefits, including raising the retirement age," the letter reads. "We also oppose any effort to privatize Social Security, in whole or in part.... If any of the Commission's recommendations cut or diminish Social Security in any way, we will stand firmly against them."

The effort is intended to tie the commission's hands, at least on this issue.

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American Crossroads

Rove-Backed Group Drops Four New Senate Race Ads (VIDEO)

Eric Kleefeld | September 2, 2010, 3:32PM

American Crossroads, the conservative group backed by Karl Rove and former Republican National Committee Chairman Ed Gillespie, has a whole set of new ads in four key Senate races.

First up is an ad in Nevada, against Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV). This spot continues the theme from American Crossroads's previous ad, complaining about stimulus spending going to help other states.

"Really, Harry," the announcer says. "How about some help for Nevada?"

The TPM Poll Average of the Nevada Senate race puts Reid ahead of Republican Sharron Angle by 46.6%-43.7%.

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Tim Pawlenty

Pawlenty Fundraises Off Health Care Opposition & Slams 'Financial Drug Dealer' Feds (VIDEO)

Eric Kleefeld | September 2, 2010, 1:45PM

Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R-MN)

Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R-MN), a potential presidential candidate, is now aggressively promoting his executive order for Minnesota to not apply for any discretionary federal funding from President Obama's health care bill. What's more, he's also fundraising off of it.

As Minnesota Independent reports, Pawlenty's Freedom First PAC sent out a fundraising letter to its supporter list, telling recipients about the order. "Pawlenty told reporters in Minnesota that he would do all in his power to limit the reach or the new health care law during his remaining four months in office," the letter said, also adding: "P.S. - If you want to help elect candidates in 2010 who will fight Obamacare, please consider donating to Freedom First PAC today."

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CO-GOV

Report: GOP Calls Growing Louder For Dan Maes To Drop Out Of CO-GOV Race

Eric Lach | September 2, 2010, 1:21PM

Dan Maes (R), candidate for Colorado governor

As embarrassments continue to pile up for Colorado gubernatorial nominee Dan Maes, Republicans have been increasing the pressure on him to drop out of the race, according to the Colorado Statesman.

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Adam Clayton Powell IV

Rangel Primary Challenger Surprised By Ex-Con Donor: 'Jesus Christ, That's Quite A Resume'

Jillian Rayfield | September 2, 2010, 1:18PM

Democratic candidate for Congress Adam Clayton Powell IV (D)

Adam Clayton Powell IV, who is challenging Rep. Charlie Rangel in the September 14 Democratic primary in NY-15, was told at a press conference yesterday that one of his major donors pleaded guilty to insider trading in 2002, and has been slapped with multiple racial and sexual harassment suits by dancers at his Bronx strip club, "Sin City."

"I don't want to hear any more. Jesus Christ, that's quite a resume," said Powell.

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VA-05

SurveyUSA Poll: Dem Perriello Getting Crushed In VA-05

Eric Kleefeld | September 2, 2010, 1:06PM

Rep. Tom Perriello (D-VA)

A new SurveyUSA poll says that Rep. Tom Perriello (D-VA), who was elected in a big upset in 2008 riding a Democratic wave, is doomed this year.

The numbers: Republican state Sen. Rob Hurt 61%, Perriello 35%, and independent Tea Partier Jeff Clark at only 2%. The survey of likely voters has a ±4% margin of error. In the previous SurveyUSA poll from mid-July, Hurt led by 58%-35%-4%.

Perriello was elected in 2008, in a stunning upset against Republican Rep. Virgil Goode, who had made a name for himself speaking vocally against Islam over the previous two years. Perriello won by 50.1%-49.9%. John McCain also carried the district by just 51%-48%, much narrower than its previous double-digit margins for George W. Bush.

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Veterans

Vet Group Calls On Obama To Fire Alan Simpson

Brian Beutler | September 2, 2010, 12:36PM

President Obama meets with the leaders of his bipartisan debt commission, Democrat Erskine Bowles, on left, and former Republican Sen. Alan Simpson, on right.

In a letter to President Obama, Vote Vets chairman John Soltz demands that Alan Simpson lose his job as co-chair of the White House's fiscal commission. Key quote:

"[O]n Tuesday, Senator Simpson actually put veteran's benefits on the chopping block...blaming disabled veterans for the country's fiscal situation. And for us, that is the final straw," Soltz wrote. "We ask that you remove him from his current position so that the commission can continue its work in a way that will give the military community--and all Americans--confidence in the conclusions it reaches."

This week, citing a program that covers veterans exposed to Agent Orange for diabetes testing and treatment, Simpson said, "The irony (is) that the veterans who saved this country are now, in a way, not helping us to save the country in this fiscal mess." White House spokesman Robert Gibbs told reporters this week that Simpson will stay on the commission.

You can read the entire letter below the fold.

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AZ-GOV

Jan Brewer's Trainwreck Of An Opening Statement In AZ Gov Debate (VIDEO)

Jillian Rayfield | September 2, 2010, 12:13PM

Jan Brewer

At last night's Arizona gubernatorial debate, Gov. Jan Brewer (R) got more than a little tripped up when making her opening statement.

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David Vitter

WATCH: Dems Recreate Vitter-Prostitute Encounter In New Web Video

Brian Beutler | September 2, 2010, 11:48AM

Senator David Vitter (R-LA)

The Louisiana Democratic party has produced an extremely potent video recapping, and even re-enacting, the full history of David Vitter's prostitution scandals. Though the segment is web-only, it's easily the farthest the party has gone to highlight the indiscretions -- a task they usually leave to surrogates, but which they view as the key to unseating him.

The five minute, 32 second documentary-style video includes testimonials from what the Louisiana Democrats describe as real Louisianans who've lost faith in Vitter for using his office to get away with criminal activity. That's the broad point the segment makes.

But more than that, it's a vehicle for reminding viewers of the scandals -- it includes audio testimony of the DC Madam, and a re-enactment of the "crime scene."

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OH-SEN

PPP Poll: GOPer Portman Leads By 7 Points In Ohio Senate Race

Eric Kleefeld | September 2, 2010, 11:31AM

Ohio Senate candidates Rob Portman (R) and Lee Fisher (D)

The new survey of the Ohio Senate race from Public Policy Polling (D) shows Republican Rob Portman taking the lead against Democrat Lee Fisher -- and being helped immensely by the enthusiasm gap of Republicans being far more motivated to vote than Democrats are.

The numbers: Portman 45%, Fisher 38%. The survey of likely voters has a ±4.5% margin of error. In the previous PPP survey from late June, Fisher had an edge of 40%-38%. The TPM Poll Average gives Portman a lead of 44.8%-40.4%.

A key tell is that in the June poll, respondents said that they voted for Obama in 2008 by a margin of 50%-44%. (This question never adds up to 100%, because some voters will not divulge their past choice, and others are new to the electorate.) In the new poll, though, respondents said they voted for John McCain, by a 48%-45% margin -- in a state that Obama actually carried by 51%-47%.

"Democrats almost everywhere are suffering not just from independents leaning toward Republicans but from a base problem--fewer of their voters are planning to show up at the polls than even in usual midterm elections, and those who do are not as unified around their nominees as are Republican voters around theirs," writes PPP president Dean Debnam. "Lee Fisher has to galvanize his base to win this race. If only 40% of the electorate is Democrats, and only 70% of them vote for him, he loses."

Alvin Greene

Former Staffer Claims Alvin Greene Used Anti-Gay Slur

Jillian Rayfield | September 2, 2010, 10:55AM

SC-SEN candidate Alvin Greene (D)

Dottie Sue Maggart-Feldmen, a former campaign aide to surprise South Carolina Democratic Senate nominee Alvin Greene, has accused the beleaguered Dem of calling a local man a "fat white f*ggot." Maggart-Feldman alleges that Greene made that comment while she was riding in a car with him, and she later relayed the tale by leaving a voicemail for the man who the alleged comments were about.

Greene denies that he made that remark, and said Maggart-Feldmen, who resigned over the alleged comment, is "a troublemaker, a troublemaker. And that's all."

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Christina Romer

Romer: Current Economic Situation Is 'Unacceptable By Any Metric'

Brian Beutler | September 2, 2010, 10:14AM

Council of Economic Advisors Chair Christina Romer

The outgoing chair of President Obama's Council of Economic Advisers acknowledged yesterday that the Democrats' recovery efforts have been insufficient, and that part of the reason was that the administration underestimated the severity of the economic recession.

"[C]ompared with the problems we face, the turnaround has been insufficient," said Christina Romer at the National Press Club in a farewell address of sorts. "Though the unemployment rate has come down six-tenths of a percentage point, it is still nine-and-a-half percent -- an unacceptable level by any metric."

"[W]e, like virtually every other forecaster, failed to anticipate just how violent the recession would be in the absence of policy, and the degree to which the usual relationship between GDP and unemployment would break down," she added.

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FL-GOV

Rasmussen Poll: Sink Leads 48-47 In Florida Gov Race

Eric Kleefeld | September 2, 2010, 10:08AM

Florida gubernatorial candidates Alex Sink (D) and Rick Scott (R)

The new Rasmussen poll of the Florida gubernatorial race -- a snap poll taken right after independent candidate Bud Chiles dropped out and endorsed Democratic nominee Alex Sink yesterday -- shows that the two-way race is as tight as can be.

The initial numbers give Republican nominee Rick Scott a lead of 45%-44%. After leaners were pushed, it's Sink who has a one-point edge of 48%-47%. The survey of likely voters has a ±4% margin of error. This is the first poll of a two-way general election race since June.

The survey would seem to suggest that Chiles's withdrawal has provided a small boost to Sink. In the previous survey from last week, Scott led Sink and Chiles by 41%-36%-8% on initial preferences. After undecided voters were pushed, as well as Chiles voters -- on the rationale that supporters of minor candidates often break away to a major candidate on election day -- Scott led by 45%-42%-4%. So for now at least, Sink has either narrowed the gap or perhaps even taken a small lead thanks to Chiles quitting the race.

CA-SEN

Fiorina Tries To Avoid Roe v. Wade Questions In First California Debate

Christina Bellantoni | September 2, 2010, 10:00AM

Carly Fiorina (R-CA), and Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA)

Sen. Barbara Boxer and former Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina clashed Wednesday night in their first debate, as the political novice tries to unseat the longtime senator with 28 years in Washington. Boxer (D) and Fiorina (R) sparred on their records, agreed on some social issues but provided the sharpest contrast when it came to the economy and jobs. Boxer went after Fiorina's HP record while Fiorina attacked Boxer as a liberal who has accomplished little despite her time in Washington.

Debate moderators pressed Fiorina on her abortion rights stance after she tried to deflect and said the main issue was jobs. She explained her personal reasons for being pro-life, and admitted, "not everybody agrees with me on this."

Then there was a moment that will likely be spliced into a Boxer ad for broadcast on the majority pro-choice state's airwaves.

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FL-GOV

Will Indy Chiles Dropping Out Help Dem In FL-GOV Race?

Eric Kleefeld | September 2, 2010, 9:08AM

Alex Sink and Bud Chiles (inset).

So what should we make of the withdrawal of independent candidate Bud Chiles from the Florida gubernatorial race, and his endorsement of Democratic nominee Alex Sink? At first glance, it would seem that this is a pure plus for Dems -- but a closer look shows that it's not so totally cut and dry.

Chiles, a son of the late Dem Gov. Lawton Chiles, had been promoting children's issues and clean energy in his bid -- the sort of stuff that would make you think he would draw Dem voters. And he was having at least some success there. An August 19 Quinnipiac poll of a three-way race between Sink, Republican Rick Scott and Chiles showed the independent taking 13% of the Dem vote -- compared to 7% of the Republican vote.

Chiles said last week that he thought the upset win in the Republican primary by right-wing former health care executive Rick Scott would help his own campaign. But he also made it clear which candidate he would prefer if he couldn't get traction himself: "I'll say this till the end: I'm not in this race to create a situation where Rick Scott becomes governor."

The TPM Poll Average of the three-way race gives Sink the lead with 40.9%, followed by Scott at 36.7%, and Chiles with only 7.7%.

Read more »

Elizabeth Warren

Speculation Grows As Elizabeth Warren Will Not Teach At Harvard This Fall

Brian Beutler | September 2, 2010, 9:04AM

Chair of the Congressional Oversight Panel created to oversee the expenditure of TARP, Elizabeth Warren.

Word on the street is that Elizabeth Warren has somewhat abruptly decided not to teach at Harvard this fall. "I'm writing to let you know that Professor Jerry Frug will be teaching your Contracts class this term instead of Professor Elizabeth Warren," Harvard law school dean Martha Minow wrote to students on Tuesday, in an e-mail The Washington Post snagged. "Professor Warren regrets that she will not be able to teach you this fall and we regret the last minute change."

The development has already touched off a great deal of speculation about whether Warren has been told she'll get the top job at the consumer financial protection bureau. But in a way this development mirrors the story of Dawn Johnsen -- a progressive favorite, who President Obama initially tapped to head the Justice Department's Office of Legal Counsel. After she got the nomination, Johnsen uprooted herself from Indiana University only to watch the White House and Senate Democrats decide not to fight for her confirmation.

Progressives with long memories won't be counting their chickens.

FL-SEN

Greene: My Lawsuit Is 'Just As Important' As Run For Senate

Evan McMorris-Santoro | September 2, 2010, 8:40AM

Jeff Greene

Jeff Greene, the defeated Democratic U.S. Senate candidate in Florida and current anti-media crusader, says he's on a mission to break the cabal of reporters who he says have dominated Florida politics for too long. His $500 million lawsuit against two prominent Florida papers, he told me yesterday, is his new quest to set Florida on the right path.

"To me this is just as important as running for office," Greene said of his libel suits against the Miami Herald and St. Petersburg Times. The billionaire investor claims that his multi-million dollar campaign for the Democratic nomination went down in flames, in part, due to reporting that was at best shoddy and at worst out-and-out biased. Greene seemed more inclined to believe the latter, suggesting that one reporter, the Times' venerated political correspondent Adam Smith, was more interested in taking down Greene than reporting the facts.

"It is our firm opinion that the allegations in this lawsuit are preposterous," Times editor Neil Brown said in a statement. "We believe Jeff Greene is a sore loser and he's blaming the newspapers because he can't accept the verdict of the voters."

Read more »

Health Care

The 'Un-American' Results If Republicans Really Force A Government Shutdown

Brian Beutler | September 2, 2010, 8:35AM

President Obama speaks at a bipartisan White House gathering with Minority Leader John Boehner (R-OH) in the background.

If Republicans win one or both houses of Congress and take their pledge to defund the health care law to its extreme, the logical end point of the ensuing fight with the White House will be a government shutdown. Or at least a partial one. And top conservatives are clamoring for that outcome.

"I'm almost giddy thinking about a government shutdown next year," tweeted Erick Erickson on Monday. "I cannot wait!"

"There's going to be a government shutdown, just like in '95 and '96 but we're going to win it this time and I'll be fightin' on your side," Dick Morris told attendees at the Americans for Prosperity Foundation Conference last week.

Read more »

2010 elections

Bill Clinton Heading Out On Campaign Trail For Democratic Candidates

Christina Bellantoni | September 2, 2010, 8:05AM

Former President Bill Clinton

Fire up the Bubba-is-more-popular-than-Obama meme machine! Former President Bill Clinton has announced three political events for southern candidates, and a spokesman hints there are more to come.

Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) was the first on Wednesday to announce Clinton would join her in his native Arkansas to "celebrate my first year as Chairman of the Senate Agriculture Committee." Clinton helped Lincoln boost enthusiasm during her competitive Democratic primary against Lt. Gov. Bill Halter. She prevailed in a run-off, thanks in part to a Clinton rally. But she's now badly trailing Rep. John Boozman (R-AR) for the general election.

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Pres '12

Pawlenty Plans To Still Take Some Health Care Money From Feds

Eric Kleefeld | September 1, 2010, 6:23PM

Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R-MN)

It turns out that Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R-MN), who ordered his state yesterday to not apply for grant money from the federal health care reform law that he opposed, isn't being completely inflexible. In fact, he's signaling that he could end up accepting other health care money from the federal government -- just not health care funds from that particular law.

As the Star Tribune reported Tuesday evening, the state will still probably take $263 million in federal Medicaid money that passed as part of an emergency spending package for the states -- a package that Pawlenty opposed.

"We'll likely take that money," Pawlenty said. "It's not Obamacare, it is something that we were going to be doing anyhow."

Read more »

AK-SEN

Miller Leads In AK-Sen But Dems See Opportunity

Christina Bellantoni | September 1, 2010, 4:49PM

Joe Miller (R) leads Scott McAdams (D) in the Alaska Senate race that was turned on its head after Miller unseated Sen. Lisa Murkowski, according to a new survey of the state's voters by Rasmussen Reports. Miller, a tea partier backed by Sarah Palin who has never held public office, leads McAdams, mayor of Sitka, Alaska, by six points. Democrats believe this second poll puts them in striking distance for a possible pickup.

Rasmussen's poll, taken last night after Murkowski conceded she lost the GOP primary, shows Miller leads McAdams 50-44. Neither man is well known in the state.

Read more »

FL-GOV

Indy Candidate Chiles Drops Out Of FL-GOV Race -- And Endorses Dem

Eric Kleefeld | September 1, 2010, 4:40PM

Lawton "Bud" Chiles

Bud Chiles, the independent candidate for governor of Florida and a son of the late Democratic Gov. Lawton Chiles, has officially announced that he is dropping out of the race -- and endorsing the Democratic nominee, state Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink.

"I need to be able to look people in the face and really believe in my heart that this was a campaign I could win and really be viable," Chiles told the St. Petersburg Times. "I just got to the point where it was difficult for me to do that." Chiles also said that he met with Sink, and came away "feeling a whole lot better" about her stances on topics such as children's issues and small businesses. "It seemed to me like that there was a lot more agreement than I might have thought."

Chiles said last week that he thought the upset win in the Republican primary by right-wing former health care executive Rick Scott would help his own campaign. However, he also said at the same time that he did not want to be a spoiler who would help elect Scott, already making it clear which candidate he would prefer.

The TPM Poll Average of the (now outdated) three-way race gives Sink the lead with 40.9%, followed by Scott at 36.7%, and Chiles with only 7.7%.

VA-05

Virginia Tea Partier Says GOPer With 'Swift Boat' Staffer Is Up To Dirty Tricks (VIDEO)

Christina Bellantoni | September 1, 2010, 3:16PM

Jeff Clark, Independent Candidate for VA-05 District

State Sen. Robert Hurt's campaign against Rep. Tom Perriello (D) in Virginia's 5th Congressional district is hitting a new snag, with an independent tea party challenger accusing his team of foul play. Jeffrey Clark, who calls Hurt too moderate, is charging that a Hurt operative leaked some unflattering stories about Clark's finances to the local paper.

Clark, a tea party type running as a third-party candidate this fall, suggested in a television interview that Hurt's consultant Chris LaCivita is behind recent news stories about Clark's 1993 bankruptcy due to unpaid medical bills. He told supporters in an email that he was told the same packet of information would be leaked to the Daily Progress in Charlottesville if he didn't end his potentially spoiling bid. Clark is offering to drop his campaign now if the person who told the paper his financial details comes clean in the next day.

Read more »

MN-06

Bachmann Campaign To Remove State Fair Logo From Ad After Complaint

Eric Kleefeld | September 1, 2010, 2:56PM

Campaign ad for Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN)

Rep. Michele Bachmann's (R-MN) campaign is responding to a complaint from the Minnesota State Fair, Politico reports, and will remove the fair's logo from their ad after they used it without permission to attack Bachmann's Democratic opponent.

Bachmann's new ad features a man telling viewers who are going to the State Fair that Dem candidate Tarryl Clark, a state Senator, voted to raise taxes on their favorite products at the fair, such as corn dogs, deep-fried bacon -- and worst of all, beer. (In fact, the votes referred to were an increase in the alcohol tax, plus a referendum in the Twin Cities to raise the local sales tax in order to fund transportation infrastructure. The latter was not specifically targeted at the fair's sort of products, though it would include them.)

The State Fair quickly objected to Bachmann's ad and its use of their logo, on the grounds that the fair does not endorse any party or candidate.

Read more »

CO-GOV

Dan Maes Forced To Back Off Claim That He Once Worked Undercover

Eric Lach | September 1, 2010, 1:17PM

This campaign season has seen a number of politicians caught embellishing their military records -- but this is a new one. The Denver Post has forced Colorado Republican gubernatorial nominee Dan Maes to back off his claim that he once worked undercover with the Kansas Bureau of Investigation on a drug and gambling case.

Read more »

WI-GOV

GOPer Flaunts Boxing Gloves Against Dem -- Who Was A Violent Crime Victim (VIDEO)

Eric Kleefeld | September 1, 2010, 12:48PM

Campaign ad by Wisconsin gubernatorial candidate Scott Walker (R)

Milwaukee County Executive Scott Walker, the likely Republican nominee in the Wisconsin gubernatorial race, has a new ad in which he says that the presumptive Democratic nominee, Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett, has been "throwing punches" at him -- and Walker shows off his the boxing gloves to fight back. Of course, Barrett was himself a victim of violent crime a year ago.

"You know, Tom Barrett can't sell his record, so he's throwing punches at me," Walker says before attacking Barrett's positions on such issues as taxes, spending and environmental laws. "I'm Scott Walker, and I took on the political machine in Milwaukee," Walker adds, revealing that his hands are in boxing gloves which he then punches together, "and ready to go the distance as your next governor."

A complication in the imagery of this ad: Back in August 2009, Barrett was severely beaten by a man with a tire iron at the Wisconsin State Fair. Barrett intervened to protect a woman who was trying to protect her 1-year-old granddaughter from the girl's drunk father, who in turn then attacked Barrett. Barrett was hospitalized and has undergone multiple operations on his hand, which doctors say might never fully recover. The assailant was later sentenced to 12 years in prison.

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David Vitter

Vitter Camp Receives Donation From Deceased Woman

Brian Beutler | September 1, 2010, 12:15PM

Senator David Vitter (R-LA)

David Vitter recently received a campaign donations from a woman who passed away in December, 2009, FEC documents reveal.

According to a notice of contributions Vitter filed on August 17, he received an August 16 donation of $1000 from Anna Gumpertz of Toluca Lake, CA -- a regular contributor to Republican candidates and causes. The only problem is, Gumpertz died of a heart attack last year.

Vitter's campaign was not immediately available for comment.

Read more »

FL-SEN

NRSC To Pump $2.5 Million Into Florida To Help Rubio

Eric Kleefeld | September 1, 2010, 11:58AM

Marco Rubio (R) and Gov. Charlie Christ (I), candidates for US Senate in Florida

The National Republican Senatorial Committee is stepping up its efforts to elect Marco Rubio in the Senate, the St. Petersburg Times reports, with the national party group committing the legal maximum of $2.5 million to coordinated advertising with his campaign.

A key reason could be that ex-Republican and now independent Gov. Charlie Crist has a cash-on-hand figure of $8 million to Rubio's $4.5 million. The paper recognizes the irony of all this -- the NRSC previously embraced Crist's candidacy for the Republican nomination and tried to stop Rubio's rise, right up until Crist bolted the party to run as an independent when the GOP primary polls went insurmountably in Rubio's direction.

The TPM Poll Average gives Rubio a narrow lead with 35.2%, followed by Crist at 34.7%, and Democratic Rep. Kendrick Meek at 17.8%.

Jeff Greene

Billionaire FL Dem Loser Blames And Sues Media For Loss

Evan McMorris-Santoro | September 1, 2010, 11:16AM

Jeff Greene

Not news: a politician blames the media for his epic downfall and convincing defeat. News: the politician takes the media to court and asks for $500 million in damages.

That's the man-bites-dog story playing out in Florida today, where Jeff Greene -- the billionaire investor who just got crushed by Kendrick Meek in the Democratic primary for Senate -- is filing suit against two state papers for, he says, tanking the Senate campaign he spent tens of millions from his personal fortune on.

The New York Times reports that Greene is filing a libel suit against the St. Petersburg Times and the Miami Herald, claiming that the papers' coverage of his infamous yacht and his even more infamous path to super-wealth were false and so damaging as to cost him the Democratic nomination.

As the Times reports, Greene's suit "is a rare step for a political figure." Many losing candidates come to hate the media, but few go so far as to take it to court.

Read more »

FL-SEN

Meek Radio Ad: 'Don't Be Fooled,' Crist Is A Republican (AUDIO)

Eric Kleefeld | September 1, 2010, 11:05AM

Rep. Kendrick Meek (D-FL) and Gov. Charlie Crist (I-FL)

Rep. Kendrick Meek (D-FL), the Democratic nominee in the Florida Senate race, has a new radio ad out attacking independent Gov. Charlie Crist -- and seeking to undermine any feeling among Dem voters that Crist could end up caucusing with the Democrats.

The ad declares that Crist's "home" is with the GOP, and features audio of various statements that Crist made when he was a Republican. Examples include, "I'm a Jeb Bush Republican," "I was impressed at Governor Palin being picked," and "I'm about as conservative as you can get."

"Now Charlie Crist is running for Senate as an independent -- while he still supports extending the Bush tax cuts for the wealthy," says the announcer. "Don't be fooled. If Charlie Crist gets to Washington, his heart will lead him right back where he belongs."

The TPM Poll Average gives Republican Marco Rubio a narrow lead with 35.2%, followed by Crist at 34.7% -- and Meek way behind for now with 17.8%.

Read more »

Health Care

States Fighting Health Care Law Also Fighting For Health Care Law Grant Money

Brian Beutler | September 1, 2010, 10:37AM

President Barack Obama

Don't underestimate Republicans' desire to stymie or unwind the health care law. But not all of them are as committed to its demise as Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R), who yesterday issued an executive order forbidding his state's officials from applying for grant money from the new law.

It turns out that seven of the states -- Arizona, Idaho, Indiana, Louisiana, Michigan, Nebraska and Nevada -- that have applied and been approved for subsidies to cover the cost of caring for retired state government employees are also part of a coalition of more than 20 states suing the federal government over the constitutionality of the health care law's individual mandate, which experts say is critical to the success of the policy. Minnesota's attorney general, Lori Swanson (D), refused to join to Pawlenty's displeasure.

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Alan Simpson

Simpson: Veterans 'Not Helping Us' Save Country From Debt

Brian Beutler | September 1, 2010, 9:22AM

National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility co-chairman Alan Simpson

If Social Security is "a cow with 310 million tits" then what's the proper metaphor for veteran's benefits? We don't know. But Alan Simpson seems to think they're too expensive. Or too overused. Or something. Anyway, it's bad.

"The irony (is) that the veterans who saved this country are now, in a way, not helping us to save the country in this fiscal mess," said Alan Simpson, co-chair of the White House's fiscal commission, according to the Associated Press.

Simpson was referring specifically to the disability benefits the Department of Veterans Affairs dispenses to Vietnam veterans exposed to Agent Orange.

Read more »

'Ground Zero Mosque'

Grand Old Islamophobes? Polls Show Widespread Republican Concerns Over Muslims -- And Obama

Evan McMorris-Santoro | September 1, 2010, 8:48AM

In a series of respected national polls this summer, great swaths of Republicans -- often encompassing the majority -- have shown themselves to be deeply worried about the prospect of Muslims gaining power in the U.S. and of President Obama's perceived connections to the faith. This isn't a fringy extreme or small but vocal minority. It's huge portions of the party that just recently was defending its use of the filibuster by pointing out all the Democrats who blocked Civil Rights legislation in the 1960s and pooh-poohed the idea of racial insensitivity among tea partiers. And now, lots and lots of Republicans across the nation are on the leading edge of an anti-Muslim paranoia that some U.S. allies abroad believe will harm American relations with the moderate Muslim world.

Meet the new Republican establishment: worried about Muslims, and worried even more that Obama might be one of them.

Read more »

CO-GOV

Tancredo: First Lady Wanted To Ban Christmas Artifacts At The White House

Eric Lach | September 1, 2010, 8:41AM

Tom Tancredo

Tom Tancredo isn't going away. The former congressman and one-time presidential candidate may have upended the Colorado gubernatorial race with his third-party run, but he's still not shy to air his controversial views on national issues. In a phone interview with TPM, Tancredo discussed the gubernatorial race, the Cordoba House project, and what he really fears about Obama. He also referenced a long-standing urban legend about the Obamas' supposed war on Christmas.

"I remember a little thing, like Ms. Obama saying she didn't want any Christian artifacts in the White House during Christmas time," Tancredo said. Another problem, Tancredo said, is "hosting Ramadan events there."

Tancredo's recitation of the urban myth about Michelle Obama disdaining Christmas is just one of several instance of Tancredo ascribing an otherness to the Obamas.

Read more »

Barack Obama

Obama Addresses The Nation At End Of Iraq War (VIDEO)

Megan Carpentier | August 31, 2010, 11:28PM

Tonight, President Barack Obama addressed the nation to mark the end of combat operations in the Iraq war. For full TPM coverage of the speech, click here.

[TPM SLIDESHOW: Goodbye, Iraq: Many American Soldiers Come Home After U.S. Drawdown]

Read more »

AK-SEN

Murkowski Concedes Alaska GOP Senate Primary

Eric Kleefeld | August 31, 2010, 10:38PM

Lisa Murkowski R-AK

Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) has conceded defeat in her Republican primary, losing in a major upset to right-wing challenger Joe Miller. The primary was held last week, with Miller taking a 51%-49% lead in the election night count to the surprise of many observers. However, the final result was delayed by an extended period of absentee ballots arriving, with many of them counted earlier today.

The Anchorage Daily News reports:

Speaking to reporters at her campaign headquarters in Anchorage, Murkowski said "based on where we are right now, I don't see a scenario where the primary will turn out in my favor."

The concession came after a day of counting absentee ballots in which Murkowski gained little ground on Miller, the Fairbanks attorney backed by former Gov. Sarah Palin and the Tea Party Express.

Miller will face Democrat Scott McAdams, the mayor or Sitka.

Barack Obama

Obama: 'The American Combat Mission In Iraq Has Ended'

David Kurtz | August 31, 2010, 8:02PM

President Barack Obama

The White House provided a copy of the text of President Barack Obama's August 31, 2010, Oval Office address on Iraq, as prepared for delivery:

Read more »

Iraq

Under Fire From Critics, Obama Hails End Of Official Combat Operations In Iraq

Brian Beutler | August 31, 2010, 7:00PM

President Barack Obama

Updated: 8:25 p.m. ET

In an Oval Office speech tonight, President Obama heralded the official end of combat operations in Iraq. But it was not an entirely triumphant moment for the White House, as it continues to be assailed in all directions over the war and the U.S. economy.

"Tonight, I am announcing that the American combat mission in Iraq has ended," Obama said in prepared remarks. "Operation Iraqi Freedom is over, and the Iraqi people now have lead responsibility for the security of their country. This was my pledge to the American people as a candidate for this office."

[TPM SLIDESHOW: Goodbye, Iraq: Many American Soldiers Come Home After U.S. Drawdown]

Read more »

NV-SEN

Angle Ad: Reid Has 'Dragged Nevada' To Its 'Lowest Point Ever' (VIDEO)

Eric Kleefeld | August 31, 2010, 6:24PM

Sharron Angle campaign ad

Sharron Angle has a new ad in the Nevada Senate race, seeking to shake the Harry Reid ads that have painted her as an extremist. Instead of directly rebutting the charges, however, Angle turns the focus back to the lousy economy.

"On Harry Reid's watch, Nevada's unemployment rate has shot past 14% -- highest in the country," says Angle. "Our foreclosure is highest in the nation. Home values have dropped almost 50%. Those aren't just numbers -- they're people who've lost their jobs, families who've lost their homes.

"Harry Reid's dragged Nevada down to perhaps its lowest point ever -- and he wants call me an extremist?"

The TPM Poll Average currently puts Reid ahead by 46.6%-43.7%.

Read more »

Stem cell research

DOJ: Stem Cell Ruling Would Have 'Devastating Impact' On Current Research

Ryan J. Reilly | August 31, 2010, 6:22PM

Scientists work on stem cell therapies for retinal degeneration.

The Obama administration on Tuesday filed a notice stating that it will appeal a court decision which halted federal funding of stem cell research, and filed an emergency motion requesting the court stay its preliminary injunction which banned the use of the funds.

Read more »

FL-GOV

Report: Indy Candidate Bud Chiles To Drop Out Of FL-GOV Race

Eric Kleefeld | August 31, 2010, 5:38PM

Lawton "Bud" Chiles

The Florida gubernatorial race could be getting yet another curveball thrown into it, the St. Petersburg Times reports, with independent candidate Bud Chiles expected to drop out soon. And at first glance, it looks like this could ultimately benefit the Democrats.

Chiles, a businessman and activist for health care for children in poor areas, is a son of the late Democratic Gov. Lawton Chiles, and had acknowledged that his views are closer to the Democratic side than the GOP. Interestingly, Chiles said last week that he thought the upset win in the Republican primary by right-wing former health care executive Rick Scott would help his own campaign -- but that he would not want to be a spoiler.

"I'll say this till the end: I'm not in this race to create a situation where Rick Scott becomes governor," Chiles told reporters last Thursday. "I believe every day, and I think what happened in the (Republican) primary is a very strong indication that I have a very viable candidacy. As long as my candidacy is viable, then, if I'm sending the message that Floridians want to hear, I'm going to keep doing that. And if, at some point, I feel that it's not viable then we can have another discussion about it."

Read more »

PA-SEN

Polls: Republican Toomey Leading Pennsylvania Senate Race

Evan McMorris-Santoro | August 31, 2010, 5:00PM

Sen. Pat Toomey (R-PA)

Two new polls of the race to replace Sen. Arlen Specter in Pennsylvania show Republican nominee Pat Toomey building momentum against Democratic nominee Joe Sestak.

A Rasmussen poll of 750 likely voters conducted yesterday shows Toomey with a six-point lead (he's ahead of Sestak 48-42). A Reuters/Ipsos poll of 407 likely voters conducted over the weekend shows Toomey's lead to be even greater: he leads that poll 47-37.

Both polls echo the TPM Poll Average for the contest, which shows Toomey settling into a relatively comfortable lead as the general election campaign hits full swing. The average shows the Republican ahead 46.3-39.6. The previous Rasmussen poll, from August 16, showed Toomey leading 48-40. There is no other Reuters/Ipsos poll for direct comparison.

Previous Rasmussen polling has shown the race to be much closer, with Sestak trailing by very little or even leading in the hectic weeks surrounding his May 18 primary win over Specter.

Read more »

2010 elections

Alaska Vote Counting Starts Under 'Strict Enforcement' After Miller Complaints

Christina Bellantoni | August 31, 2010, 4:28PM

Joe Miller and Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK)

Alaska's Lt. Gov. Craig Campbell has ordered "strict enforcement of the rules governing confidentiality of the voter process" following allegations from Joe Miller's campaign that Sen. Lisa Murkowski supporters were trying to influence the ballot count in Alaska's drawn-out GOP primary for U.S. Senate.

A first count of absentee ballots in the razor-close primary began today, and Murkowski made up ground right away with a few hundred votes, according to tweets from Alaska-based reporters. The last count had Miller leading Murkowski by 1,668 votes, and the tweets suggested the senator gained at least 300 when counting began today.

Read more »

Tim Pawlenty

Pawlenty Orders Minnesota Not To Apply For Federal Health Care Reform Money

Eric Kleefeld | August 31, 2010, 4:12PM

Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R-MN)

Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R-MN) is taking a bold step among Republicans opposed to the new federal health care reform law. As his latest move, Pawlenty has issued an executive order forbidding his state's officials from applying for grant money from the new law.

Pawlenty's order allows only applications for money that are required by law -- which would seemingly mean that this is not a case of nullification, and falls short of such an extreme step -- or approved by the governor's office.

Pawlenty's order contains various points of explanation, taken right from Republican arguments against the new law, such as: "WHEREAS, the Act represents a dramatic attempt to assert federal command and control over this country's health care system, which accounts for one-sixth of our nation's economy, thereby reducing individual freedom for health care decisions."

And also: "WHEREAS, consistent with this determination and in recognition of my obligations to protect Minnesota's sovereign interests and those of its citizens, the boundary between state and federal government must be maintained to prevent an unwise and unsustainable federal takeover of health care in our State."

This move to swear off federal health care money could be worth a lot -- namely, a potential gain of five points in the Iowa caucuses in 2012.

MN-06

Bachmann Ad: My Dem Opponent Voted To Tax Your Beer And Deep-Fried Bacon (VIDEO)

Eric Kleefeld | August 31, 2010, 3:42PM

Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN) has a new ad out, making use of the seasonal State Fair's imagery (without permission) to attack her Dem opponent, state Sen. Tarryl Clark, on some very important issues: Deep-fried foods -- and beer!

The ad continues the theme of having the friendly "Jim the Election Guy" tell voters about issues. (I don't get it, and neither does anyone else in this office. If you understand the reference, please tell us.) "I know, I know, it's State Fair time and you don't want to hear about politics," says Jim. "But while you're at the fair, you should know Tarryl Clark here wanted to raise taxes on your corn dog. And your deep-fried bacon. And your beer."

"So if you see Tarryl Clark while you're at the fair, just ask her: What's up with voting to tax my beer?"

I still don't get this whole "Jim the Election Guy" stuff, but I can confirm the importance of beer as a political issue in the Upper Midwest. Furthermore, this election is over if Bachmann manages to pin down the cheese-curd vote.

Read more »

Cordoba House

Republican Orrin Hatch Stands Up For Cordoba House (VIDEO)

Eric Kleefeld | August 31, 2010, 1:26PM

Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-UT)

A conservative Republican Senator has now come out strongly against efforts to block the construction of the Cordoba House Muslim community center near Ground Zero in New York: Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-UT).

In an interview with the local Fox affiliate in Salt Lake City, Hatch stated his support and past work for religious freedom. "So, if the Muslims own that property, that private property, and they want to build a mosque there, they should have the right to do so," said Hatch. He also discussed his past experiences dealing with discrimination against the construction of Mormon temples -- and when his late friend Sen. Ted Kennedy (D-MA) helped him to resolve just such a dispute in Boston.

Hatch acknowledged that there have been objections to the construction of the center, on the grounds of sensitivity and whether it should be built, but ultimately he came down on the side of the right to build it without interference. He also added: "And there's a huge, I think, lack of support throughout the country for Islam to build that mosque there, but that should not make a difference if they decide to do it. I'd be the first to stand up for their rights."

It should be noted that there has been much discussion about a possible right-wing challenge against Hatch for his party's nomination in 2012, just as his co-Senator Bob Bennett lost renomination at the state convention this year. If that were to come to pass, don't be surprised to see these comments used against him.

(via Think Progress)

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CO-GOV

Rasmussen Poll: Hickenlooper Leading Maes, Tancredo In CO-GOV Race

Eric Lach | August 31, 2010, 1:16PM

CO Gov. candidates John Hickenlooper (D), Dan Maes (R) and Tom Tancredo (Constitution).

The latest Rasmussen poll of the Colorado gubernatorial race show Democrat John Hickenlooper still leading, and support for Tom Tancredo's third-party run falling.

Read more »

LA-SEN

Melancon Challenges Vitter To Series Of Unscripted Town Hall-Style Debates

Brian Beutler | August 31, 2010, 1:16PM

Sen. David Vitter (R-LA) and Rep. Charlie Melancon (D-LA)

Louisiana Senate hopeful Charlie Melancon has challenged David Vitter (R) to a series of debates today, in an effort to make him account publicly for recent scandals, TPM has learned.

Melancon issued the challenge this afternoon in letters to Vitter, and other qualified candidates, and will argue that all major candidates agreed to five debates in 2004, when Vitter first won his Senate seat.

As part of the challenge, Melancon is asking that the debates be town hall-style, without podiums, pre-screened questions, pre-selected questioners. Vitter has been avoiding reporters for most of campaign season, and has confined himself for the most part to events with pre-screened questions.

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Barack Obama

Opposition To Health Care Law On The Rise Again

Brian Beutler | August 31, 2010, 12:09PM

President Barack Obama

For a time, opposition to health care reform legislation was on the decline and support appeared to be rising. That trend has frozen, and possibly even reversed, according to both a new Kaiser Family Foundation poll, and TPM's PollTracker.

The Kaiser survey of 1,203 adults finds opposition to the health care law at 45 percent, up from 35 percent when they last polled the issue in July. At the same time, support has fallen, from 50 percent down to 43 percent.

Though that swing is wide, the new findings closely mirror TPMs average, which finds opponents outnumbering supporters 47.6-42.2.

Read more »

NV-SEN

Lieberman Tops Dem Caucus Support For Reid

Eric Kleefeld | August 31, 2010, 12:03PM

Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV) and Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-CT)

The Senator who has been the most financially supportive of Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid's (D-NV) re-election is none other than...Joe Lieberman, the ex-Democrat and now independent who is often a thorn in the side of liberal activists.

As The Hill reports, Lieberman is the top contributor to Reid's re-election from among the Senate Democratic caucus, chipping in $14,000 from his two PACs. This surpasses the contributions from Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-CA), who gave $12,300 to Reid, and 22 other Dem Senators who put in $10,000 each.

As the paper reports:

Lieberman has given $30,000 overall during this election cycle, all to Democrats. The Democrat-turned-Independent has been especially generous to those facing -- or who faced -- uphill re-election battles, such as Sens. Blanche Lincoln (Ark.), Chris Dodd (Conn.) and Arlen Specter (Pa.). Lincoln is trailing in her race by double-digits, while Specter lost his May primary bid and Dodd announced his retirement this spring after polls showed him trailing in Connecticut.

Hmm. Is Lieberman's staunch support a sign that Democrats really will lose big this November?

The TPM Poll Average for the Nevada Senate race puts Reid ahead of Republican Sharron Angle by a margin of 46.6%-43.7% -- for now.

Carl Paladino

Paladino On Obama: 'I Think He Worships Himself' (VIDEO)

Jillian Rayfield | August 31, 2010, 11:48AM

Carl Paladino

New York Republican gubernatorial candidate Carl Paladino may not share the belief of a growing number of Americans that President Obama is a Muslim, but he has his doubts about Obama's belief in Christianity: "I think he worships himself."

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Islam

Newsweek Poll: Republicans Think Obama 'Probably' Wants To Impose Islamic Law

Eric Kleefeld | August 31, 2010, 11:29AM

President Barack Obama

As Sam Stein has pointed out, a majority of Republicans suspect that President Obama wants to impose Islamic law, also known as Sharia, throughout the world, according to a new national poll from Newsweek. But even as they say this, a lot of them aren't completely sure.

The poll asked: "Some people have alleged that Barack Obama sympathizes with the goals of Islamic fundamentalists who want to impose Islamic law around the world. From what you know about Obama, what is your opinion of these allegations?"

The top-line result was definitely true 7%, probably true 24%, probably not true 36%, and definitely not true 25%. Among Republicans, however, it was definitely true 14%, probably true 38%, probably not true 33%, and definitely not true 7%.

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OH-SEN

Rasmussen Poll: GOPer Portman Leads Ohio Senate Race By Six

Evan McMorris-Santoro | August 31, 2010, 11:05AM

OH-SEN Democratic candidate Lee Fisher

Former Bush administration official Rob Portman's (R) lead in the race to replace retiring Sen. George Voinovich (R-OH) has shrunk to six points, according to a new poll from Rasmussen out today.

Portman leads Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher (D) 47-41 in the new survey of 750 likely voters, conducted Aug. 29. The margin of error is 4%. In the last Rasmussen poll of the race, conducted Aug. 16, Portman led 48-39.

Both polls include results from "leaners," respondents who first say they are undecided about the race and are then pressed by the pollster to make a decision about which candidate they're more likely to support in the end. "Early in any campaign, the numbers without leaners are generally more significant," Rasmussen writes. "Later in a campaign, the numbers with leaners matter more."

With campaign season essentially fully underway, the results of the Rasmussen poll suggests that Fisher has at least a fighting chance in the contest. Since his convincing win in the bitter Democratic primary May 4, Fisher's campaign has been plagued by bad press, including reports of numerous staff shakeups and low fundraising totals.

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MN-GOV

Univ. Of MN Poll: Dayton And Emmer Tied In MN-GOV Race

Eric Kleefeld | August 31, 2010, 10:59AM

MN-GOV candidates Tom Emmer (R) and Mark Dayton (D)

The new University of Minnesota poll shows a tied race for governor of Minnesota, between Democratic former U.S. Sen. Mark Dayton and Republican state Rep. Tom Emmer.

Dayton and Emmer each get 34% support, plus 13% for Independent Party nominee Tom Horner, a moderate ex-Republican. The survey of likely voters has a ±5.3% margin of error. In the last University of Minnesota poll from mid-May, Dayton led Emmer by 35%-31%, with 9% for Horner. The TPM Poll Average puts Dayton ahead of Emmer and Horner by a split of 40.4%-33.9%-10.9%.

From the pollster's analysis: "Both Dayton and Emmer are suffering from voter backlashes. Likely voters who are dissatisfied with the national direction, which is currently in the hands of Obama and congressional Democrats are breaking by a 44% to 23% margin for Emmer rather than Dayton. By contrast, voters worried that Minnesota is heading off on the wrong track are breaking for Dayton 39% to 30% presumably on the grounds that Governor Pawlenty is the State's chief executive and responsible for its well-being."

NV-SEN

Reid Ad Pits Woman Who Was On Unemployment Against Angle (VIDEO)

Eric Kleefeld | August 31, 2010, 10:33AM

"Spoiled" ad from Sen. Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV)

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) has a new TV ad out, attacking Republican nominee Sharron Angle for opposing the extension of unemployment benefits. And this new ad puts a new twist on the Reid campaign theme of using Angle's words against her -- featuring a woman who was on unemployment for 12 months, reacting to Angle's various comments.

The ad shows Angle saying, "We really have spoiled our citizenry," and also, "they want to be dependent on the government."

"I'm not spoiled, and I don't want to be dependent on anybody," the woman in the ad says. "If Sharron Angle doesn't get that, she should be out of work -- not people like me."

The TPM Poll Average puts Reid ahead by a margin of 46.6%-43.7%.

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Michele Bachmann

Bachmann Claims Estimate Of 1.6 Million People At Glenn Beck Rally (AUDIO)

Eric Kleefeld | August 31, 2010, 10:10AM

Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN)

Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN) is saying that a lot -- a lot -- of people attended Glenn Beck's rally in Washington over the weekend.

Appearing on Laura Ingraham's radio show yesterday, Bachmann said: "The crowds were overwhelming, and if you saw the aerials on the Drudge Report this weekend, there was an aerial photo. Unofficially, off the record, we talked to one of the guys from the National Park Police who told us he thought it was 1.6 million. There had to be over a million people there. People were packed in from the Washington Monument all the way to the Lincoln Memorial. And for anyone who's ever been there, that's a huge area."

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Alan Grayson

Grayson's Opponent Boasts Support From Far Right Texas Conservative

Brian Beutler | August 31, 2010, 9:00AM

Republican congressional candidate Daniel Webster

Alan Grayson's GOP opponent Daniel Webster has a thorn in his side. Listed in his official voter guide as a top supporter is a right wing activist named David Barton, who has already come under scrutiny for addressing two white supremacist organizations.

Barton claimed in both circumstances that he was unaware of the group's white supremacist ties. But that doesn't mean he's not possessed of extreme views of his own. From 1998 to 2006, he served as vice-chair of the Texas Republican party, which is notorious for having one of the most zealously conservative platforms in the country.

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Ben Nelson

Nelson Blasts Nebraska Governor For Threatening Teachers Over Health Care Reform

Brian Beutler | August 31, 2010, 8:39AM

Sen. Ben Nelson (D-NE).

Sen. Ben Nelson (D-NE) is openly defending health care reform from Nebraska Governor Dave Heineman (R), who this week pressured the state's educational professionals to choose between the new law and, potentially, their jobs.

"It's...troubling that he's using that misinformation to intimidate groups involved in all aspects of our children's health, safety and education, pitting one against the other," Nelson said of Heineman in a statement issued last night.

Nelson voted for the health care bill earlier this Congress, despite hailing from a Republican state and being one of the most conservative Democrats in the Senate. Though he's not up for re-election this year, he has since that vote distanced himself from his Democratic colleagues on several issues.

But on this issue he's parting with Republicans.

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AK-SEN

Getting Nastier In Alaska: Miller Supporters Charge Vote Counting Shenanigans

Christina Bellantoni | August 31, 2010, 8:00AM

Lisa Murkowski R-AK

Joe Miller's lawyers are asking for state troopers to be stationed at Alaska elections offices, charging that there are serious shenanigans afoot involving improper shredding and that Sen. Lisa Murkowski's observers of the ballot-counting brought an illegal iPhone into the room.

Those are just two allegations in a new letter from Miller's attorneys to Lt. Gov. Craig Campbell and state elections officials that detail serious concerns and will make the sustained vote counting all the more interesting.

The Tea Party Express group, which spent more than $500,000 in a last-minute effort to put Miller over the top in a primary to unseat Murkowski, is emailing supporters a copy of the letter with the ominous subject line: "Irregularities Arise in Alaska Vote Count - URGENT!"

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2010 elections

Gallup: Republican Congressional Ballot Lead Highest Ever

Evan McMorris-Santoro | August 30, 2010, 5:24PM

Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi (D-CA)

Gallup is reporting that the GOP lead in congressional generic polling is now 10 points -- the largest lead for the party in the storied polling firm's history. The poll asks respondents which party they would prefer to see in control of Congress. Republicans now lead Gallup's generic ballot 51-41.

Gallup attributes the double-digit Republican lead in its latest polling to the massive GOP advantage in voter enthusiasm, a story we've been talking about all year. The newest Gallup numbers show Republicans with a staggering 25% advantage in voter enthusiasm. What does that mean in real terms? "Republicans are now twice as likely as Democrats to be 'very' enthusiastic about voting," the pollster writes.

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KY-SEN

Conway Ad: He's A 'Darn Good' Attorney General -- And He Busts Drug Dealers (VIDEO)

Eric Kleefeld | August 30, 2010, 5:09PM

Democratic nominee Jack Conway has a new ad in the Kentucky Senate race, touting the support of the state Fraternal Order of Police -- and declaring that he's "darn good" at his job as state Attorney General.

"Jack Conway is the chief law enforcement officer for Kentucky and a darn good one," says Calloway County Sheriff Bill Marcum. Notably, the ad also points to Conway's record in a major drug bust in the state, which nabbed 518 people. As the Conway camp's press release says: "Conway's record stands in stark contrast to that of opponent Rand Paul, who has come under fire for saying illegal drugs aren't a 'real pressing issue' in Kentucky."

'Darn good.' That's a heck of a step down from his previous tagline at the Fancy Farm Picnic in 2009, "I'm one tough son of a bitch." Is this what they call repositioning for the general election?

The TPM Poll Average gives Republican nominee Rand Paul a lead of 45.4%-41.0%.

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WI-07

DCCC Ad Accuses Sean Duffy Of Backing Social Security Privatization (VIDEO)

Eric Kleefeld | August 30, 2010, 4:32PM

Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee ad

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has a new TV ad against Sean Duffy, the Republican candidate for the seat held by the retiring senior Rep. David Obey (D-WI), hammering him for backing Social Security privatization -- a connection made through his apparent statement of support for the policies of Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI).

"Privatizing would cut the guaranteed benefit, and gamble seniors' retirement on the stock market," the announcer says. "Remember the crash? Families could have lost nearly 40 percent of their retirement benefits -- 40 percent."

The DCCC bases the claim that Duffy supports privatization not on a direct statement of his on the specific subject, but instead on his having stated his support for the budget roadmap offered by Ryan, which was obtained on a tracker video. And in turn, Ryan's blueprint involves Social Security privatization.

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Spending

Dick Morris: GOP Will Shut Down The Government Again (VIDEO)

Christina Bellantoni | August 30, 2010, 3:59PM

Conservative commentator Dick Morris

Republican pollster Dick Morris told conservative political activists that newly elected Republicans should shut down the government next year. Morris said the party must elect lawmakers who will stand up and say "No" to President Obama's requests for more government spending and predicted a repeat of how Republicans forced a shutdown under President Clinton after they won control of Congress.

"There's going to be a government shutdown, just like in '95 and '96 but we're going to win it this time and I'll be fightin' on your side," Morris said at the Americans for Prosperity Foundation Conference on Friday in Washington.

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Social Security

Gibbs: Despite Titgate, Simpson 'Will Continue To Serve' On Debt Commission

Brian Beutler | August 30, 2010, 3:52PM

White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs

Progressive activists have one more reason to be dissatisfied with the White House. A growing coalition of groups, along with members of Congress and Congressional hopefuls, have called in recent days for Social Security foe Alan Simpson to be fired from the National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform. Today, White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs said it's not gonna happen.

"Senator Simpson sent an email that he's now apologized for," Gibbs said at the daily White House press briefing today. "We regret that he sent that email. We don't condone those comments. But Senator Simpson has and will continue to serve on the commission."

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CO-SEN

Rasmussen Poll: Buck Leads Bennet By 4 Points In CO-SEN Race

Eric Lach | August 30, 2010, 1:37PM

Republican candidate for the U.S. Senate race in Colorado Ken Buck and Sen. Michael Bennet (D-CO)

The new Rasmussen poll of the Colorado Senate race shows Republican Ken Buck leading Sen. Michael Bennet 49%-45%.

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WV-SEN

Rasmussen Poll: Dem Manchin Leads By Only Six Points In WV-SEN

Eric Kleefeld | August 30, 2010, 1:36PM

The new Rasmussen poll of the West Virginia special Senate election shows a potential close race, with Democratic Gov. Joe Manchin leading Republican businessman John Raese by only six points. And if this race is indeed close, a possible cause would be President Obama's unpopularity in a state that has been trending Republican.

The numbers: Manchin 48%, Raese 42%. The survey of likely voters has a ±4.5% margin of error. In the previous poll from late July, Manchin led by 51%-35%.

The TPM Poll Average gives Manchin a lead of 49.5%-38.5%.

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AK-SEN

Murkowski Denied Chance To Run As Libertarian

Christina Bellantoni | August 30, 2010, 1:31PM

Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK)

Members of Alaska's Libertarian Party voted unanimously to rebuff any attempt from Sen. Lisa Murkowski to run on the fall ballot as a libertarian should she lose the Republican primary.

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David Addington

Addington Takes Top Post At Conservative Heritage Foundation

Brian Beutler | August 30, 2010, 12:00PM

David Addington, former chief of staff for Vice President Dick Cheney

Former Dick Cheney aide David Addington is headed to the conservative Heritage foundation. Addington will serve, according to the Daily Caller as vice president for domestic and economic policy studies -- but he's most famous for advocating vast Presidential powers. Under Cheney, he allegedly helped to shape an infamous Justice Department memo sanctioning torture in some cases, and was a key architect of the previous administration's warrantless surveillance program

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Social Security

Meet The 18 People Who Could Determine The Fate Of Social Security

Brian Beutler | August 30, 2010, 11:55AM

President Obama meets with the leaders of his bipartisan debt commission, Democrat Erskine Bowles, on left, and former Republican Sen. Alan Simpson, on right.

Last week former Republican Senator Alan Simpson, who co-chairs the White House's fiscal commission, drew a storm of criticism for comparing Social Security to a "cow with 310 million tits." But Titgate isn't really about language. It's about both Simpson himself -- who has long viewed Social Security as a bloated program for spoiled old people -- and about the commission as a whole. Comprised of nine tax-averse Republicans and nine Democrats, many of whom have expressed support for Social Security changes in the past, the commission will almost certainly be biased toward benefit cuts, and away from raising taxes, when it presents its report on December 1. Below, the cast of characters who will be making the calls.

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Barack Obama

Obama: 'I Can't Spend All My Time With My Birth Certificate Plastered On My Forehead' (VIDEO)

Eric Lach | August 30, 2010, 11:50AM

In an interview with NBC's Brian Williams that aired yesterday, President Obama addressed the lingering rumors about his birth and religion, condemning what he calls a "network of misinformation" and taking a swipe at the birther movement.

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Stem cell research

Moderate GOPers In Tough Spot Over Stem Cell Research

Christina Bellantoni | August 30, 2010, 10:52AM

Rep. Mike Castle (R-DE)

Democrats are sounding increasingly confident they can work out a bipartisan legislative fix to get around a judge's order halting all stem cell research, but in an election year where everything matters, are moderate Republicans really going to go along with the majority party? And might that cost one GOPer his Senate bid?

The two clearest examples are Republican Senate candidates Rep. Mark Kirk (IL) and Rep. Mike Castle (DE), who Democrats told TPM last week they expect to continue to support embryonic stem cell research as they have before.

But Castle is locked in a tough and nasty fight with Christine O'Donnell, a tea party favorite who is looking to become the next conservative insurgent to topple the establishment's pick. With the O'Donnell campaign targeting evangelical voters in advance of a Sept. 14 primary that could have fewer than 50,000 voters, this could be the issue to turn the race.

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Glenn Beck

Glenn Beck: Obama's Not A Racist -- It's His Religion That's The Problem (VIDEO)

Jillian Rayfield | August 30, 2010, 10:32AM

Fresh off of his "Restoring Honor" rally in Washington, D.C. on Saturday, Glenn Beck said on Fox News Sunday that he regrets saying that President Obama has "a deep-seated hatred for white people" last July, but chalked it up to a misunderstanding: "I didn't understand really his theology. His viewpoints come from liberation theology. That I think is what at the gut level I was sensing, and I miscast it as racism."

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AK-SEN

Libertarian Bid Would Look Good For Murkowski

Christina Bellantoni | August 30, 2010, 9:39AM

Joe Miller and Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK)

Republican Senate hopeful Joe Miller is leading Democratic nominee Scott McAdams in a new survey of Alaska voters by Public Policy Polling (D) taken after Miller's surprise showing in last week's primary.

Miller is not the nominee, though thanks to tea party support and a Sarah Palin endorsement, the conservative political upstart leads Sen. Lisa Murkowski by 1,668 votes. There are nearly 20,000 absentee ballots outstanding and Team Murkowski believes she has a shot at retaining her seat, though it will be weeks before a result is determined.

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Health Care

Five Conservative Dems Campaigning On Opposition To Health Care Reform

Eric Kleefeld | August 30, 2010, 8:57AM

Demonstrators rally outside of the U.S. Capitol Building.

An interesting pattern has started to emerge in this midterm election, which could be dominated by the continuing debate over the health care reform law passed earlier this year. A whole bunch of Dems from Republican-leaning districts have been running ads in which they tout their opposition to the bill.

So let's take a look at some of these conservative Dems. Will their votes against the bill -- and their public campaigning on those votes -- actually work for them in November?

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'Restoring Honor'

Beck Rally Attendees Say Tea Party Misunderstood

Ryan J. Reilly | August 29, 2010, 1:52PM

Former "Saturday Night Live" star Victoria Jackson has released a YouTube video that is on the verge of going viral that warns the American public, "There's a communist living in the White House." William Temple (Georgia) appeared as Patrick Henry

Members of the Tea Party are misunderstood, those in attendance for Glenn Beck's "Restoring Honor" rally yesterday told TPM in interviews.

[TPM SLIDESHOW: Glenn Beck's 'Restoring Honor' Rally Showcases Who's Beckistan?]

Willie Wood of Dunbar, N.C. told TPM she and her family -- sprawled out to the left of the stage on lawn chairs -- came to the rally to honor her country and to see Glenn Beck and Sarah Palin because "they stand for freedom." She is hopeful Republicans will take back the House in November. Her biggest issues are jobs, security, taxes and the national debt.

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'Restoring Honor'

Beck Rally Participant Demands: 'Protect White Cracker Babies'

Ryan J. Reilly | August 29, 2010, 12:58PM

A participant in Glenn Beck's "Restoring Honor" rally wore a T-shirt that read "Protect White Cracker Babies."

A Cleveland man wore a t-shirt to Glenn Beck's rally on Saturday with the slogan "Protect White Cracker Babies."

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