In yet another indication of how difficult November’s elections will be for Democrats, the Cook Political Report has changed its rating of the Wisconsin Senate race (sub. req.) from “Lean Democratic” to “Toss-Up.”
Explains Cook:
Just three weeks ago, we moved this race between Democratic incumbent Sen. Russ Feingold and businessman Ron Johnson, the presumptive Republican nominee, from the Solid Democratic column to Lean Democratic. After watching the back and forth between the candidates and having met with Johnson, the race is making yet another move to Toss Up.
Citing Democratic Gov. Jim Doyle’s unpopularity, the low number of Wisconsin voters who believe the state is on the right track, and the energized Republican base, Cook argues that an anti-incumbent climate may be enough to topple the incumbent Democratic senator. “Feingold could do everything right and still lose,” Cook writes. Johnson, meanwhile, is well-positioned as an “outsider” candidate who “appears to have very little baggage for Democrats to exploit.”
Feingold, feeling the heat, has tried to increase his supporter base by flaunting some of his conservative bonafides. Still, the TPM Poll Average of the race gives Johnson a slim 48.5%-46.4% edge.
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