So why is it that Republican candidate Meg Whitman, the former eBay CEO, has been catching up with or even surpassing Democrat Jerry Brown in the California gubernatorial race? The answer is actually quite simple: As of this juncture, Whitman is campaigning full time — and spending a whole lot of money — and Brown isn’t.
Brown, the current state attorney general who previously served as governor from 1975-1983 and ran for president three times, began this race as a clear frontrunner. But along the way, Whitman’s heavy self-financing of the race has clearly helped her to catch up.
The TPM Poll Average right now shows Brown with a narrow edge of only 44.4%-44.2%, with Whitman closing fast. In terms of individual data points, a SurveyUSA poll from two weeks ago gives Whitman an edge of 44%-43%, while a Rasmussen poll from Thursday gives her an even wider berth of 51%-43%. Previous polls from July and June had given Brown the lead or put Whitman ahead only narrowly, thus resulting in Brown’s continued lead in the average — but even that is quickly slipping away.
The graph tells the story:
As the Sacramento Bee reported, Whitman has spent a whopping $120 million on her campaign. By contrast, Brown hasn’t aired any ads — though unions have pitched in with some attacks against Whitman — but has instead built up a war chest of $23 million to be spent later.
“Meg started with virtually no name ID and that’s why radio began last fall,” Whitman strategist Rob Stutzman told the paper. “It takes a while to build a good, sustained brand for a candidate.”
Here’s one of Whitman’s attack ads, taking on Brown:
As the San Francisco Chronicle noted, Brown has also had less of a presence on the campaign trail, as evidenced by their report of a Brown event this past Wednesday: “The rally at Santa Rosa Veterans Memorial Building was only Brown’s third campaign event since the Democratic primary in June. Until the past week, when he doubled the number, he had done five fundraisers…Wednesday evening, there was the feeling of a community festival, with hundreds of people lining up to get in an hour before the event. They were serenaded by folk singers, and a nearby community hall hosted a $20-a-head fundraiser for the candidate.”
The question, then, is whether Brown can successfully pick up the pace after Labor Day, when voters start to pay greater attention — or whether Whitman’s high bid will meet the reserve price for the governor’s mansion.
Eric Kleefeld
Eric Kleefeld joined TPM as an intern for the final months of the 2006 midterm elections, and then kept showing up for work. His other interests include guitars, old comic books and the politics of various English-speaking countries.
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