The new Star Tribune poll of the Minnesota gubernatorial race provides further corroboration that presumptive Republican nominee Tom Emmer is significantly trailing any of the three Democratic candidates.
State House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher, the state Dems’ officially endorsed candidate, leads Emmer by 38%-29%, with Independence Party candidate Tom Horner at 13%. Former U.S. Sen. Mark Dayton leads Emmer by 40%-30%, with Horner at 13%. And former state House Minority Leader Matt Entenza leads Emmer by 36%-31%, with Horner at 15%. The survey of registered voters has a ±4.5% margin of error. There is no previous Star Tribune poll for direct comparison.
The TPM Poll Averages for the general election match-ups have Kelliher ahead by 39.0%-31.7%-12.0%, Dayton ahead by 40.2%-32.8%-11.4%, and Entenza edging ahead by 36.6%-33.5%-13.5%.
Also in the Democratic primary, the new poll has Dayton leading Kelliher by 40%-30%, with 17% for Entenza. The survey of primary voters has a ±7.8% margin of error. The Democratic primary will be held on August 10.
Despite the state’s overall Democratic leanings, Minnesota has not elected a Dem governor since 1986. Since 1990, the state has been governed by a succession of non-Democrats spanning the middle and the right, such as moderate Republican Arne Carlson, the Independence Party’s Jesse Ventura, and conservative Republican Tim Pawlenty.
Emmer, however, could be proving to be a somewhat weaker GOP nominee in even a Republican-friendly year, due to his hard-line conservative positions on such issues as nullifying federal laws, and his public gaffes — the most notable being his discussion of overpaid waiters making over $100,000 per year in tips and hurting their employers. That line led to some highly amusing attempts at damage control, such as Emmer waiting tables and holding a town hall with servers that did not go well. In addition, gay-rights activists are mobilizing against businesses that are supporting Emmer’s campaign.
Eric Kleefeld
Eric Kleefeld joined TPM as an intern for the final months of the 2006 midterm elections, and then kept showing up for work. His other interests include guitars, old comic books and the politics of various English-speaking countries.
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