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Poll: Vitter Leads Melancon By 10


Sen. David Vitter (R-LA) and Rep. Charlie Melancon (D-LA)

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New Louisiana polling data to be released later today shows David Vitter maintaining a double digit lead over his likely rival, Rep. Charlie Melancon, and benefiting from the fact that the electorate there remains largely in the dark about his scandals.

Public Policy Polling surveyed 403 likely voters from August 21-22 and found that, in a two way race, 41 percent now say they'd vote for Melancon, 51 would choose Vitter, and 8 percent remain undecided. The latest TPM PollTracker average gives Vitter a nearly 13 point margin over Melancon. In June, PPP found Vitter ahead 46-37. As of now there are multiple third party candidates in the race. The winner must receive a plurality of the votes.

Vitter, according to the poll, continues to enjoy majority support in Louisiana, with 53 percent saying they have a favorable opinion of him (41 percent disapprove and six percent unsure). Over a quarter of voters by contrast -- 26 percent to be exact -- don't know what to think of Melancon. The same number give him high marks, and 48 percent say they have an unfavorable view.

Yesterday, PPP unveiled a handful of the toplines of this same poll, suggesting that a great number of voters are still unaware of Vitter's recent travails, including prostitution scandals, and the more recent discovery that he knowingly employed a top aide for two years after the aide attacked his girlfriend with a knife. Only 21 percent say Vitter is a "good model" of Christian living. But 44 percent say he's not a good model, and 35 percent say they don't know.

On Saturday, voters will choose between Vitter and his primary rival Chet Traylor. Vitter appears to be sitting pretty in that race: PPP finds only 11 percent have a favorable approval of Traylor. A quarter of respondents don't like him and the overwhelming majority -- 64 percent -- aren't sure. Traylor and his allies have yet to make a showing in TV ads, three days before Saturday's election.

PPP finds Melancon in better shape in a hypothetical matchup against the extremely unknown Traylor: 40-39 with 21 percent undecided.

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August 25, 2010 8:56 AM   

"David Vitter maintaining -- barely -- a double digit lead... and benefiting from the fact that the electorate there remains largely in the dark about his scandals."

It must be really dark in Louisiana.

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August 25, 2010 9:26 AM    in reply to Clarance Vine

Not so much dark as fear of the "dark." Har har har. In Louisiana, Conservative = keep the darkies down. Ugg GUA-RAN-TEE! Har har har.

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August 25, 2010 9:16 AM   

I was visiting my in-laws in New Orleans last year and my father-in-law, who is kind of up on politics, had no idea about the Vitter prostitute thing. My mother-in-law was aware but apparently it was something they never discussed.

Of course, knowledge of that doesn't matter one bit...no way they vote for Melancon, even though he's a conservative local Cajun dude running against a fancy pants Rhodes Scholar diaper-wearing incumbent. They might vote for the guy running against Vitter in the primary but that's as far as they'll go. The hatred of anything connected to Obama - eg, Democrats - runs deep in Louisiana. (well, not among blacks, but you can't win in Louisiana when 70-80% of the white folks are set to vote against you) Vitter would have to bite the heads off kittens before a Dem could beat him. Plus, this is Louisana - as far as scandals go you pretty much have to be convicted and in jail (see, eg, Edwin Edwards, Bill Jefferson) before voters reject you because of some bribery or prostitution charges.

Note that my in-laws do usually vote for a Democrat in the New Orleans mayoral elections...but that's because the Republicans rarely field a viable candidate, if they field one at all. It's almost always a bunch of Dems with a smattering of independents (actually Democrats) running.

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August 25, 2010 12:56 PM    in reply to ogliberal

That's pretty sad considering that the guy you inlaws my vote for is currently living with and plans to marry the wife of his son. Judge Traylor is living up to his name even though it's spelled differently.

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August 25, 2010 12:56 PM    in reply to ogliberal

Sorry I meant your in-laws may vote for!

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August 25, 2010 9:28 AM   

I'm just baffled by this. It could only happen in a one party state. If Richard Burr had been caught up in something like this, every damn person in this state would know it.

Oh well, that's what campaign ads are for.

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August 25, 2010 9:39 AM    in reply to The Commenter Formerly Known as NCSteve

Ugg also hear of something call journalism to inform tribe. Does Louisiana not have it yet? Har har har.

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August 25, 2010 9:48 AM    in reply to Ugg the Repug

My guess is that outside of Baton Rogue and New Orleans - which is where almost all of the Dem votes are located in the state - the news didn't really penetrate because it was downplayed, because people didn't pay attention, or because people didn't care. (conservatives always run with the herd even when one of the leaders of the herd likes to have his dirty diapers changed by high-priced hookers) Both the Times-Picayune (New Orleans metro) and The Advocate (Baton Rogue) have covered all of Vitter's indiscretions but, again, those are Dem strongholds (and Baton Rogue is more purple, maybe even slightly red) in an increasingly red state. (there are some old school Southern Dems there who still call themselves Dems but they rarely vote Dem)

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August 25, 2010 12:07 PM    in reply to ogliberal

Outside of Baton Rogue and New Orleans you have Fox News, Fox News Xtra, More Fox News and the local Fox network.

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August 25, 2010 12:46 PM    in reply to Dave

And the only place you may have heard about it is from the local Fox network...it would have been buried by any Fox branch run directly by the mothership.

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August 25, 2010 10:14 AM    in reply to Ugg the Repug

Fallfar cliff best way "inform" tribe. Har Har

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August 25, 2010 9:54 AM    in reply to The Commenter Formerly Known as NCSteve

The difference being that folks in NC would actually care. In Louisana, crooked politicians are a dime a dozen and when it has to do with sex it's even less of an issue. Plus, my guess is that there's a lot less hatred of Obama and the Democrats in NC than there is in Louisiana, right? Finally, Louisiana is one of those states that gets back a lot more federal money than they give in taxes. If he's good at bringing home the bacon folks aren't really going to care about his sexual antics or his aides girlfriend beating.

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August 25, 2010 10:23 AM   

A surprising number of non-Louisianan liberals I know aren't aware of Diaper Dave's exploits, either.

Must be that "liberal" media hard at work again disinforming the public.

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August 25, 2010 11:17 AM    in reply to JBL1955

But . . . But . . . But . . . David 'Diaper' Vitter is a gud fahmally man . . . I saw that on TV.

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August 25, 2010 10:35 AM   

What is wrong with that state?

More to the point, what is wrong with Democrats? Vitter is the perfect target against whom one can go super-negative and still not be accused for doing so. Do they not want to win?

Let's get on with diaper gate.

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August 25, 2010 12:54 PM    in reply to jsdc007

In a nutshell...

Current President = Negro socialist commie gun-confiscating oil-well-shutting-down terrorist
Current President's Party - Democratic
Charlie Melancon's Party - Democratic

It's pretty much that simple. Vitter - or whoever comes out of the GOP primary - is the guy running for Senate who isn't in the same party as Obama and that evil witch Nancy Pelosi.

Also, as I noted, politicians involved in scandals just isn't news in Louisiana.

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August 25, 2010 12:55 PM    in reply to jsdc007

Also, I think Melancon just started hitting Vitter with the prosititute/woman beating aide stuff. Check back in 2-weeks. My guess is that this is Louisiana in the year of the angry tea bagger and not much will change.

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August 25, 2010 12:16 PM   

This seat is still winnable. Vitter is barely about 50% in this poll and in other polls he is under 50%. Melancon and the DSCC has to go full bore negative against Vitter's personal failings. If so they could pull a big upset.

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August 25, 2010 12:36 PM   

Newspapers still do most of the reporting, but it seems their stories have no impact unless TV chooses to pick them up. For a better indicator of why Louisianans are unaware of Vitter's problems, look at TV coverage rather than the newspapers.

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August 25, 2010 12:50 PM    in reply to ericf

Agreed...most people skip right over the national news in their local newspaper to get right to the local/metro news and sports. Even stuff on page A1 might not get noticed if it isn't above the fold.

And as noted above, if most of the white folks in Louisiana outside of New Orleans and Baton Rogue are getting their news from Fox, well, that explains this.

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August 25, 2010 12:56 PM   

Someone should put up an add with a baby in diaper with Vitter's head attached being wooed by a couple of professional women. Perhaps that professional who undid Spitzer in New York.

All of this is beside the fact that Vitter is certainly not a idol for family values, limited government or fiscal responsibility. Oh so they will say that all parties have their good and bad traits but I will reply that only the Democrats are honest about bigger government and government spending. The GOP just tells people that they are family values, tells people they are fiscally responsible, tells people they are for limited government but then get elected and go to washington and do nothing of the sort. Just look at the Reagan Years, the Bush years and it becomes quite clear that there has not been any results when it came to delivering on their message. But I guess we live in a society which prides it self on the "now" and loves a good show. Lord know we have people who identify with conservatism but heaven can not tell me why they vote for these people who ultimately fail to deliver.

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August 25, 2010 1:01 PM   

This is why I have no sympathy for the people of Louisiana. You truely do get the government you deserve. This guy has also voted against a number of women's issues including equal pay and mamograms. How ignorant and clearly racist do you have to be to vote for this disgraceful piece of shit? Our only hope is that the Beltway wisdom is once again proven wrong and the Dems can pick up Kentucky, New Hampshire and Florida to cancel out this jackass and leave him and McCain with an even smaller minority.

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