A new Rasmussen poll of the New Hampshire Senate race finds Republican Kelly Ayotte — the front runner in the Republican primary — with a 13-point lead over Democratic Rep. Paul Hodes, 51%-38%. The latest numbers show Hodes down six points to GOP hopeful Bill Binnie, 46%-40%.
Ayotte has held an advantage in the polls through the duration of the campaign. The last Rasmussen poll, conducted on July 12, showed her leading Hodes 49%-37%. In late July, a University of New Hampshire survey found similar results, with Ayotte on top 45%-37%. A PPP poll from July 25 showed a much closer contest, with the GOPer holding a slight 3-point lead — a statistical tie, given the survey’s ±3.26 margin of error — but no other poll in the last few months has produced a similar result.
The July PPP poll showed Ayotte with a 33-point lead over Binnie, her closest GOP rival, in the September 14 primary.
The TPM Poll Average of the Ayotte-Hodes matchup shows the likely Republican nominee leading Hodes 48.2%-38.0%. In the case of a GOP primary upset, Hodes would still have some ground to make up, as the TPM Poll Average has Binnie up 45.5%-39.5%.
The margin of error for the latest Rasmussen poll is ±4.5. For more on the race, check out TPMDC’s full coverage here.
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