Yet another poll of the Minnesota gubernatorial race shows the Democratic candidates ahead of presumptive Republican nominee Tom Emmer — and by some pretty decent margins, too.
The new poll from SurveyUSA shows former U.S. Mark Dayton ahead of Emmer by 46%-32%, with the Independence Party’s Tom Horner at 9%. The polls show that, in a similar three-way race, State House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher, the state Dem convention’s officially endorsed candidate, would come out ahead by 39%-33%-12%. And former state House Minority Leader Matt Entenza is ahead by 38%-33%-12%. The survey of likely voters has a ±2.7% margin of error.
In the previous SurveyUSA poll from mid-June, Dayton led Emmer and Horner by only 38%-35%-12%. Meanwhile, Emmer was actually ahead of Kelliher by 35%-33%, with 12% for Horner, and he led Entenza by 37%-33% with 12% for Horner. The TPM Poll Averages for the general election match-ups now have Dayton ahead by 42.9%-32.4%-10.2%, Kelliher ahead by 39.2%-32.1%-11.0%, and Entenza ahead by 37.4%-33.2%-12.8%.
Since June, of course, Emmer has gotten in a lot of trouble over his complaint that waiters were making $100,000 in tips — followed by some comical attempts at damage control. He has also faced attacks for his DWI history, and the CEO of the Target Corporation has now apologized for supporting a pro-Emmer group as a result of his religious-right positions.
Meanwhile, the SurveyUSA poll of the Democratic primary, which will be held this Tuesday, shows Dayton way ahead with 43%, Kelliher at 27%, and Entenza with 22%. The survey of likely primary voters has a ±4.4%.
The funny thing here is that Dayton served one term in the U.S. Senate, during which period he became unpopular and was viewed as an ineffective Senator. In February 2005 he announced his retirement — openly citing problems with his own electability as a factor: “Everything I’ve worked for and everything I believe in depends upon this Senate seat remaining in the Democratic caucus in 2007. I do not believe that I am the best candidate to lead the DFL Party to victory next year.” Time magazine called him one of America’s five “worst Senators” due to erratic personal behavior.
Since then, however, Dayton seems to have rehabilitated his image. One interesting step he took was to discuss his struggles with depression and alcoholism with the media. And if he win this Tuesday’s primary, with an opponent like Tom Emmer he might just become the first Democratic governor of Minnesota in 20 years.
Eric Kleefeld
Eric Kleefeld joined TPM as an intern for the final months of the 2006 midterm elections, and then kept showing up for work. His other interests include guitars, old comic books and the politics of various English-speaking countries.
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