DE-SEN

Christine O'Donnell: After Witchcraft I Tried to Be A Hare Krishna -- But Liked Meatballs Too Much (VIDEO)

Christina Bellantoni | October 1, 2010, 10:36PM

In 1999 Christine O'Donnell told Bill Maher that she'd briefly tried Buddhism, and that she'd tried to be a Hare Krishna but couldn't take the vegetarianism.

"I was dabbling into every other kind of religion before I became a Christian," O'Donnell said on "Politically Incorrect," a July 19, 1999 clip revealed tonight on Maher's HBO show "Real Time."

Then the kicker:

I was dabbling in witchcraft, I've dabbled in Buddhism. I would have become a Hare Krishna but I didn't want to become a vegetarian. And that is honestly the reason why -- because I'm Italian, I love meatballs!

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Sunday Shows

The Sunday Show Line-Ups

Eric Kleefeld | October 1, 2010, 5:37PM

KY Sen. candidates Rand Paul (R) and Jack Conway (D)

Here are the line-ups for the Sunday talk shows this weekend:

• ABC, This Week: A town hall on Islam in America, featuring Franklin Graham, Daisy Khan, and others.

• CBS, Face The Nation: Gov. Ed Rendell (D-PA), Gov. Bill Richardson (D-NM), Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT).

• CNN, State Of The Union: Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX), Sen. Robert Menendez (D-NJ), former Gore presidential campaign manager Donna Brazile, former George W. Bush aide Ed Gillespie, Pakistan ambassador to the United States Husain Haqqani.

• Fox News Sunday: Kentucky Senate candidates Rand Paul (R) and Jack Conway (D).

• NBC, Meet The Press: Will not air, due to NBC's coverage of the Ryder Cup.

DE-SEN

Christine O'Donnell's 'Oxford' Tutor Speaks Out: 'Intelligent,' 'A Joy To Have'

Christina Bellantoni | October 1, 2010, 4:59PM

Christine O'Donnell

When she attended a Phoenix Institute program in 2001, Christine O'Donnell was "a joy to have," her former tutor says. Bruce W. Griffin is speaking out on his former student, and says that O'Donnell would "add intellectual and philosophical depth" to the United States Senate should she win in November.

O'Donnell, the Republican nominee for Senate in Delaware, has represented herself as attending Oxford University on at least one and potentially many more occasions.

Griffin, an instructor and not a professor, wrote a detailed blog item saying that O'Donnell's thesis on cloning stood out in his mind as "one of the two best papers written for me that summer."

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John Boehner

Say What?! Republicans Echo Bill Clinton's Rhetoric In Anti-Pork Crusade

Brian Beutler | October 1, 2010, 4:21PM

Rep. Mike Pence (R-IN), Rep. Eric Cantor (R-VA), and Rep. John Boehner (R-OH)

How untenable is the idea of eliminating earmarks? So untenable that Republicans are now borrowing from Bill Clinton to walk back what was recently one of their top initiatives.

"I am proud to stand with Leader Boehner in calling for an end to earmarking as we know it," Tweeted House GOP conference chair Mike Pence today. The sentiment was echoed -- retweeted, as the kids like to call it -- by Boehner himself, and Pence put out a statement today calling for "Congress to make the hard choices that are necessary to break Washington's spending addiction, and ending earmarks as we know them is a step in the right direction."

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NV-SEN

Angle: Sharia Taking Hold In The United States

Eric Kleefeld | October 1, 2010, 4:09PM

NV Sen. candidate Sharron Angle (R)

Sharron Angle is now getting on board the latest Republican bandwagon, warning that sharia -- the term for Muslim religious law, which the American right has conflated to refer to its branches within Muslim extremism -- is taking over parts of the United States.

The Mesquite Local News reports on a Republican rally that Angle attended on Wednesday, where she took questions from GOP supporters:

One of the last questioners asked about "Muslims taking over the U.S.," including a question about Angle's stance on the proposed mosque near Ground Zero in New York.

"We're talking about a militant terrorist situation, which I believe isn't a widespread thing, but it is enough that we need to address, and we have been addressing it," Angle said.

"Dearborn, Michigan, and Frankford, Texas are on American soil, and under Constitutional law. Not Sharia law. And I don't know how that happened in the United States. It seems to me there is something fundamentally wrong with allowing a foreign system of law to even take hold in any municipality or government situation in our United States."

It's quite interesting that Angle is warning against a system of religious law taking control of the United States -- she has herself alleged that the Democrats' policies violate the First Commandment to acknowledge God as supreme.

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NY-GOV

Paladino Walks Back Walk-Back: I Really Do Have Proof Of A Cuomo Affair (VIDEO)

Jillian Rayfield | October 1, 2010, 4:03PM

To accuse Andrew Cuomo of an affair, or not to accuse Andrew Cuomo of an affair -- that is the question that's been plaguing Carl Paladino this week.

And on Megyn Kelly's Fox News show today, Paladino again suggested that he's got proof: "We will at the appropriate time say whatever we have in our box. At the appropriate time."

Read more »

AK-SEN

McAdams Ad: I'll Have To Wear A Tie -- And Might Pick Ted Stevens's Hulk Tie (VIDEO)

Eric Kleefeld | October 1, 2010, 2:11PM

From a Scott McAdams campaign ad, "Tie Rack."

Scott McAdams, the Democratic nominee in the Alaska Senate race, has a fun new ad that features something people wouldn't have expected to see: A Democratic candidate promising to follow in the path of the late Republican Sen. Ted Stevens, who the Dems famously defeated in 2008 in the wake of an ethics scandal.

McAdams has been lagging in third place in the polls, behind the more high-profile Republican nominee Joe Miller and incumbent GOP Sen. Lisa Murkowski, who is running a write-in campaign after her upset narrow primary loss to the Tea Party-backed Miller. So in this quirky and memorable ad, McAdams pitches himself as a down-home guy who is having trouble getting used to wearing a neck tie.

"I'm Scott McAdams, and my wife Romy told me I better start wearing a tie -- so I can look 'Senatorial,'" McAdams says in a voiceover, as he looks at all different kinds of ties. "Now, if it takes a tie to finally get the same share of oil royalties as Louisiana, then I'll wear one. And if it takes a tie to stop Joe and Lisa from outsourcing our jobs to China, or our tax dollars to the Lower 48, then that's a good reason, too.

Finally, McAdams seems to settle on a western-style bolo tie -- but then also puts his hand on an Incredible Hulk tie, which used to be a signature motif of Stevens. "I approve this message, because for me, it's about Alaska, and getting our fair share again. We used to have a Senator like that."

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FL-GOV

Rasmussen Poll: Rick Scott Leads By Five Points In FL-GOV

Eric Kleefeld | October 1, 2010, 1:02PM

Rick Scott

The new Rasmussen poll of the Florida gubernatorial race gives Republican former health care executive Rick Scott the lead over Democratic state Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink.

The numbers: Scott 46%, Sink 41%. The survey of likely voters has a ±4% margin of error. In the previous Rasmussen poll from last week, Scott led by 50%-44%.

This result is similar to a Quinnipiac poll released earlier today, which put Scott ahead by 49%-43%. The TPM Poll Average gives Scott a lead of 46.8%-43.2%.

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Nancy Pelosi

Top Five Examples Of Dems Running Scared From Nancy Pelosi (VIDEO)

Brian Beutler | October 1, 2010, 12:35PM

Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi (D-CA)

It's too early to predict the outcome of the 2010 elections, but one thing we know for sure: If Democrats lose their majority in the House, Nancy Pelosi will not be Speaker anymore. That's certainly one of the reasons that she doesn't bat an eye (publicly, at least) when vulnerable and conservative Democrats run from her on the campaign trail.

"Sometimes Washington gets used to a rubber-stamp Congress which was the very homogeneous Congress of the Republicans," Pelosi said on PBS last night. "We are very diverse in opinion, gender, generation, geography, philosophy and the rest -- the House Democratic Caucus -- and some members did not vote for some the bills and that's their record and that's what they go out and say. I just want them to win."

But these candidates are not just running against their records. They're singling out Pelosi as the agent in Washington with whom they disagree with the most. Below, a list of the five most blatant examples of Democrats running scared from Pelosi.

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White House

Emotional Rahm Emanuel Chokes Up As He Departs White House (VIDEO)

Christina Bellantoni | October 1, 2010, 12:31PM

Rahm Emanuel is known more for cursing than kind words, but he choked up today as he addressed West Wing staffers for a final speech announcing his departure from the White House.

Rahm said he knows he's supposed to be "tough" but talked about the honor he feels it has been working for President Obama. He said Obama has tackled massive challenges and credited the president with rescuing the economy from freefall. You can watch the video below.

[TPM SLIDESHOW: So Rahm, Farewell: A Salute To Rahm Emanuel's Time In Washington]

Read more »

NV-SEN

Liberal Group's Ad: Angle Is 'Dangerous' to Rape Victims On Abortion (VIDEO)

Eric Kleefeld | October 1, 2010, 11:32AM

Ad from The Patriot Majority, "Every Four Minutes"

The liberal group Patriot Majority PAC has a new ad in the Nevada Senate race, slamming Sharron Angle's opposition to abortion even in the cases of rape and incest -- and using her own words regarding such situations.

The ad has a visual of a sitting, silent and scared-looking young woman, presumably meant to represent a rape victim. The announcer discusses Angle's position on the issue, with audio of Angle herself cutting in at key points.

"Every four minutes in America, a woman is sexually assaulted. Almost half are teenage or younger. But for a victim of rape or incest, Sharron Angle would force her to have the baby. Angle says, 'Two wrongs don't make a right.' For girls raped by a relative, Angle says they should just make, 'a lemon situation into lemonade.' If that's not extreme, what is? Sharron Angle -- too dangerous to have real power over real people."

The TPM Poll Average currently puts Reid ahead by 47.7%-45.2%.

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FL-08

Alan Grayson To TPM: That Poll Is Bogus, I'm Totally Winning

Evan McMorris-Santoro | October 1, 2010, 10:41AM

Rep. Alan Grayson (D-FL)

Progressive firebrand Rep. Alan Grayson (D-FL) told me last night that rumors of his political demise have been greatly exaggerated.

"We're winning," Grayson told me during a long phone call.

For the past week, bad news has been mounting for Grayson, first in the form of a lawsuit that re-raised rumors that he's behind a mysterious "Tea Party" in Florida -- which real movement tea partiers say is a hoax designed to split the GOP vote. Second -- and potentially worse for the first-term Grayson -- was the release of a public poll earlier this week that showed Grayson trailing Republican nominee Daniel Webster by seven points.

Grayson categorically dismissed the poll, which was published in the right-leaning Sunshine State News and was conducted by a firm owned by Republican pollster Susquehanna.

"This is a consistently biased pollster that comes up with polling that is not believable," he said. Grayson pointed to the internal poll he released last month showing him ahead of Republican nominee Webster by 13 points.

"I don't know how anybody could possibly believe we've dropped 20 points," he said.

Read more »

FL-GOV

Quinnipiac Poll: Rick Scott Leads Alex Sink By Six Points In FL-GOV

Eric Kleefeld | October 1, 2010, 10:37AM

Florida gubernatorial candidates Alex Sink (D) and Rick Scott (R)

The new Quinnipiac poll of the Florida gubernatorial race shows Republican nominee Rick Scott taking the lead over Democrat Alex Sink. This appears to be thanks to two main factors: Rick Scott's massive self-financed advertising -- and President Obama's unpopularity.

The numbers: Scott 49%, Sink 43%. The survey of likely voters has a ±2.9% margin of error. In the previous Quinnipiac poll from mid-August, shortly before the Republican primary, Sink had 33%, Scott 29%, plus 12% for independent Bud Chiles -- who later dropped out and endorsed Sink.

The TPM Poll Average gives Scott a lead of 46.8%-44.3%.

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Jon Stewart

Jon Stewart: Sen. Tom Coburn Is An 'International A**hole of Mystery' (VIDEO)

Jillian Rayfield | October 1, 2010, 10:21AM

Jon Stewart explained last night that about $1 billion of aid to Haiti was stalled in the Senate because one senator placed a "secret hold" on it. This means he was able to anonymously derail the legislation "because our system is stupid," Stewart said.

Stewart revealed that this "international asshole of mystery" was Tom Coburn (R-OK), and he stalled the bill because of a $5 million provision that he thought might waste taxpayer dollars.

So for any Haitian who right now lives on top of a pile of rubble washing their clothes in their own urine bucket, while Sean Penn gives your kids cigarettes while regaling you with Fast Times at Ridgemont High anecdotes, hang in there. Cause we need to sort all this out so you won't have to fill out duplicate forms. You're welcome!

Read more »

NV-SEN

Angle Ad: 'We Tried It Harry Reid's Way, And It Didn't Work' (VIDEO)

Eric Kleefeld | October 1, 2010, 9:57AM

Sharron Angle campaign ad, "Real World"

Sharron Angle has a new TV ad in the Nevada Senate race, focusing on the issue that has been her main weapon against Harry Reid (and her main hedge against attacks regarding her own right-wing stances) -- the economy.

"They're not statistics. They're people," says Angle. "They're the father who got laid off today, and doesn't know how he's going to pay for his mortgage. The frightened senior who's seen half of her home value disappear. And the small business owner who's closing for good.

"Let's be honest. We tried it Harry Reid's way, and it didn't work. It's time to end the bailouts and the reckless spending, the higher taxes, and put Nevadans back to work.

The TPM Poll Average puts Reid ahead by 47.7%-45.2%.

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Barack Obama

Obama To GOP: Confirm My Judges Already!

Brian Beutler | October 1, 2010, 9:16AM

President Barack Obama

Better late than never, but President Obama is finally pressing the Senate to confirm his long-stalled judicial nominees.

In a letter delivered yesterday to key Senators, Obama demanded an end to GOP obstructive tactics that are preventing dozens of non-controversial judges from being confirmed.

"I write to express my concern with the pace of judicial confirmations in the United States
Senate," Obama wrote. "Yesterday, the Senate recessed without confirming a single one of the 23 Federal judicial nominations pending on the Executive Calendar.... At this point in the prior Administration (107th Congress), the Senate had confirmed 61% of the President's judicial nominations. By contrast, the Senate has confirmed less than half of the judicial nominees it has received in my Administration. Nominees in the 107th Congress waited less than a month on the floor of the Senate before a vote on their confirmation. The men and women whom I have nominated who have been confirmed to the Courts of Appeals waited five times longer and those confirmed to the District Courts waited three times longer for final votes."

Read more »

DE-SEN

Cornyn Punts On Chance To Defend O'Donnell

Christina Bellantoni | October 1, 2010, 9:02AM

Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX)

National Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee Chairman Sen. John Cornyn told reporters that Delaware's Senate race still does not appear to be competitive for the GOP thanks to Christine O'Donnell.

TPM spoke briefly with Cornyn following an event at the National Press Club Thursday, and asked about O'Donnell's recent snafu with her education history and how serious of a problem he deems that to be. Rather than defend her, Cornyn spoke generally.

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CT-SEN

Does Linda McMahon Oppose The Minimum Wage?

Eric Kleefeld | October 1, 2010, 8:44AM

Republican candidate for U.S. Senate in Connecticut Linda McMahon

Linda McMahon is now being attacked in the Connecticut Senate race for remarks during a Q&A with reporters that have been interpreted as meaning she would be in favor of potentially lowering the minimum wage -- and acknowledging that she doesn't even know what the minimum wage is. And for her part, her campaign is saying she was merely questioning any increases to the wage in the near future.

[TPM SLIDESHOW: Bringing The Smackdown: Linda McMahon's Campaign For Senate, And Her Colorful Pro-Wrestling Past]

As The Day reports, McMahon appeared at an event to receive the endorsement of the National Federation of Independent Businesses -- an organization that opposes increases to the minimum wage. McMahon was frequently asked by reporters whether she would oppose increases to the wage -- and also whether she thinks it should have ever been passed at all.

"The minimum wage now in our country, I think we've set that and a lot of people have benefited from it in our country, but I think we ought to review how much it ought to be, and whether or not we ought to have increases in the minimum wage," said McMahon.

Then things got messier.

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WI-SEN

Rasmussen Poll: Feingold Trails By 12 Points

Eric Kleefeld | September 30, 2010, 6:17PM

Senator Russ Feingold (D-WI) and Senate candidate Ron Johnson (R-WI)

The new Rasmussen poll of the Wisconsin Senate race gives Republican businessman Ron Johnson a whopping 12-point lead over Democratic Sen. Russ Feingold -- the largest gap in any poll yet.

The numbers: Johnson 54%, Feingold 42%. The survey of likely voters has a ±4% margin of error. In the previous Rasmussen poll from two weeks ago, Johnson led by 51%-44%.

The TPM Poll Average gives Johnson a lead of 53.0%-43.1%.

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WI-SEN

Feingold Runs On Health Care Reform Support In New Ad (VIDEO)

Eric Kleefeld | September 30, 2010, 5:34PM

Sen. Russ Feingold (D-WI)

Sen. Russ Feingold (D-WI), who has been trailing badly in the polls, is throwing something of a Hail Mary pass in his tough race against Republican businessman Ron Johnson. He's running an ad proudly in favor of the major health care reform law that has fired up the GOP base in opposition, and attacking Johnson for wanting to repeal its newfound patient protections.

As Ben Smith reports, Feingold's new ad features supporters speaking on behalf of Feingold's work on health care. "Senator Feingold has always been on our side, fighting the insurance companies...But Ron Johnson won't even get in the ring for us...Russ fought to stop insurance companies from denying Wisconsin children health care due to pre-existing conditions...Mr. Johnson would put insurance companies back in control...Letting them raise premiums and increase our costs whenever they want...Ron Johnson, hands off my health care."

Feingold concludes the ad: "I'm Russ Feingold, and I approve this message, because you deserve a Senator who's on your side."

The TPM Poll Average gives Johnson a lead of 53.0%-43.1%.

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Carl Paladino

Paladino On Confronting Reporter: I Was Protecting My Family

Jillian Rayfield | September 30, 2010, 5:29PM

New York Gubernatorial Candidate Carl Paladino

Carl Paladino's campaign released a statement today regarding last night's New York Post reporter-threatening incident, and defended the Republican gubernatorial nominee's actions as "protecting his family."

Paladino claims that Post Editor Fred Dicker was involved in sending photographers to take pictures of Paladino's 10-year-old daughter, whom he had with a woman who is not his wife. The intrusion, the release said, makes the girl "susceptible to kidnapping or sexual predators." It adds: "Endangering the safety of a 10-year-old child is repugnant."

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DE-SEN

Claremont Institute Tells TPM O'Donnell's 2002 Resume Listed Oxford University

Christina Bellantoni | September 30, 2010, 4:44PM

Candidate for U.S. Senate Christine O'Donnell (R-DE)

One thing we know is true: Christine O'Donnell was a Lincoln Fellow at the Claremont Institute in 2002. The rest, as we've closely chronicled, is all a bit fuzzy.

But TPM just spoke with a Claremont official who reviewed O'Donnell's 2002 application file. Ryan Williams, who oversees the Lincoln Fellowship program, told us that O'Donnell lists a certificate from Oxford University on her resume. "She did have a line about Oxford," he said as he looked at her file, which also included an essay and letters of recommendation.

Williams told us the item on O'Donnell's resume reads:

Oxford University, Oxford, UK Certificate awarded Summer 2001

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MO-SEN

Dem Carnahan's Ad In MO-SEN: Blunt Is A 'Pork-Meister' (VIDEO)

Eric Kleefeld | September 30, 2010, 4:27PM

From a Robin Carnahan campaign ad, "Potatoes."

Democratic candidate Robin Carnahan has a new TV ad in the Missouri Senate race, trying to tear down Republican Rep. Roy Blunt's bonafides on the issues of government spending that he's been pushing in the race. The message: He's a "pork-meister."

"What do this museum for teapots, this swimming pool, and this center studying potatoes have in common?" the announcer asks. "Thanks to Roy Blunt, they've been getting your tax dollars. That's right. Blunt's been a leader in allowing earmarks to get out of control. He's been called a 'prodigious pork-meister' for earmarks that cost you $20 billion a year. That's a lot of potatoes. Roy Blunt: The very worst of Washington."

The candidate then closes with her message: "I'm Robin Carnahan. I approved this message, because I'm for banning earmarks once and for all."

The TPM Poll Average gives gives Blunt a lead of 51.2%-44.0%.

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NY-GOV

Marist Poll: Cuomo Leading Paladino By 16 In NY-GOV Race

Jillian Rayfield | September 30, 2010, 4:18PM

New York gubernatorial candidates Andrew Cuomo (D) and Carl Paladino (R)

A Marist survey of likely voters shows Democratic candidate Andrew Cuomo leading Republican Carl Paladino 56%-40% in the race for New York governor.

The last Marist poll, released last week, showed Cuomo leading 53%-34%, though that survey also polled for Rick Lazio, who hinted he might run on a third-party ticket but dropped out this week.

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Baron Hill

#Fail: Republicians [sic] Take On Baron Hill In Indiana (VIDEO)

Brian Beutler | September 30, 2010, 3:57PM

The National Republician Campaign Committee is running an ad against Democratic House incumbent Baron Hill of Indiana.

No, that's not our typo, it's theirs.

Hill has served his district since 1999, but was booted from Congress for one term by Republican Mike Sodrel in 2005 only to return to Congress in 2007. Now the GOP is trying to take the seat back yet again by tying him to Democratic leadership.

So confident are Republicans that they can convince Hoosiers to fire Hill that they've let their copy editors take a month-long vacation ahead of recess.

Read more »

WI-SEN

WI-SEN GOPer Johnson Opposed Bill To Crack Down On Catholic Church Abuse Scandals

Eric Kleefeld | September 30, 2010, 3:57PM

Republican candidate for senate Ron Johnson (WI).

Ron Johnson, the businessman and Republican nominee for Senate in Wisconsin against Russ Feingold, is now coming under fire for a previous foray into a public position that he took last January: When he testified against a bill that would have made it easier for adults who had been victims of childhood sexual abuse to sue the responsible organizations such as the Catholic Church.

Earlier this year, the Wisconsin legislature considered a bill as a result of the Catholic Church's abuse scandals, which would have eliminated the statute of limitations for victims to sue organizations responsible for sexual abuse, and created a three-year window for past victims to file new lawsuits. The bill, which failed to pass, was opposed by the insurance industry and church organizations -- and by Johnson, who had served on the Green Bay diocese's financial council. (Johnson is not Catholic himself, but a Lutheran.)

Read more »

CA-SEN

PPIC Poll: Boxer Ahead Seven Points In CA-SEN

Evan McMorris-Santoro | September 30, 2010, 3:54PM

Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA)

Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA) is in the driver's seat in her bid for reelection this year, a new poll from the Public Policy Institute of California shows. The PPIC survey of 1,104 likely voters is one of the state's most respected polls and it shows Boxer leading Republican nominee Carly Fiorina 42-35.

In PPIC's last survey of the race, taken in July, Boxer led 39-34. The new result matches other recent polls showing Boxer ahead. The TPM Poll Average shows the Democrat leading 47.4-43.4.

PPIC reports that Boxer appears to be gaining voters even as she loses some public confidence. "Across parties, her approval rating has dropped since May among Democrats (67% today, down 10 points), independents (41%, down 12 points), and Republicans (7%, down 6 points)," the pollster reports. "Disapproval of her job performance is at a new high of 45 percent."

That dip could give Fiorina some hope that she can reclaim the lead in the race between now and November 2.

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CA-GOV

PPIC Poll: CA-GOV Is Anybody's Game

Evan McMorris-Santoro | September 30, 2010, 2:55PM

Meg Whitman (R), gubernatorial candidate in California.

The Public Policy Institute of California is out with one of the most anticipated polls of the California election season today -- and the results show that with the clock ticking down on the state's gubernatorial campaign, the election is anybody's to win (or lose).

The survey of 1,104 likely voters in the Golden State shows Republican nominee Meg Whitman leading the race by one point. She's leading Democrat Jerry Brown 38-37. That essentially matches a July PPIC poll that showed Whitman leading 37-34. Whitman has shored up support in several important areas however.

"Independents were divided in July (30% Brown, 28% Whitman, 30% undecided) but have shifted toward Whitman (38% Whitman, 30% Brown, 19% undecided)," the pollster reports. "Whitman is favored more by Republicans (71%) than Brown is by Democrats (63%)."

Other recent polling in the race confirms a close race, though one poll -- a CNN/Time survey published yesterday -- showed Brown with a nine-point lead. The TPM Poll Average shows the candidates essentially tied, with Whitman leading 45.1-44.7.

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CA-GOV

Spanish-Language Ad Hits Whitman Over Undocumented Maid Issue (VIDEO)

Eric Lach | September 30, 2010, 2:52PM

Ad from an SEIU-backed organization, "Meg Whitman - 9 Años"

The SEIU-backed Cambiando California group wasted no time turning California Republican gubernatorial nominee Meg Whitman's ex-maid issue into a campaign ad.

Read more »

Jack Lew

No Recess Appointments For Obama During Election Season

Brian Beutler | September 30, 2010, 2:48PM

Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV)

With Louisiana Sens. Mary Landrieu (D) and David Vitter (R) blocking a vote on the confirmation of Jack Lew, President Obama's pick to lead the White House budget team, speculation ran rampant this week that Obama might offer Lew a recess appointment.

Well, that won't be happening.

Last night, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid decided he'd hold multiple weekly pro-forma Senate sessions during the election-season recess, which will prevent Obama from legally recess appointing his stalled nominees. The reason, according to top Democratic and Republican aides has nothing to do with recess appointments per se, but rather with protecting the rest of Obama's executive and judicial nominees.

Read more »

KY-SEN

Rasmussen Poll: Rand Paul Leads By 11 In KY-SEN

Evan McMorris-Santoro | September 30, 2010, 2:07PM

KY Sen. candidate Rand Paul (R)

Rand Paul has a double-digit lead in the Kentucky Senate race, according to a new poll from Rasmussen out today. The poll of likely voters shows Paul, the Republican nominee, leading Democratic nominee Jack Conway by a margin of 49-38.

Rasmussen's last poll in Kentucky, conducted Sept. 7, showed Paul with a larger 15-point lead. That poll showed Paul ahead 54-39. The dip in support for Paul matches that seen in all other polling of the race lately, which has shown Conway gaining ground. The poll shows that Paul's self-professed tea party candidacy may be causing some problems for the Republican, despite the large lead.

"Paul has the backing of 88% of Tea Party members and 29% of non-members," the pollster reports. "Fifty-eight percent of those who say they are not part of the movement support Conway."

The TPM Poll Average shows Paul ahead 47.4-41.9

Read more »

NV-SEN

Reid Ad Attacks Angle On Mammogram Insurance Coverage: 'More Women Will Die' (VIDEO)

Eric Kleefeld | September 30, 2010, 1:49PM

Campaign ad from Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV), "Barbara's Story."

The Harry Reid campaign has a new ad against Sharron Angle, continuing their recent line of attack over her opposition to mandating that insurance companies cover various procedures -- in this case, mammograms.

The ad features a woman named Barbara Trznadel, talking about how a mammogram detected her breast cancer.

Then the narrator cuts in: "In the Assembly, Sharron Angle tried to repeal the law that makes insurance companies cover mammograms. She wouldn't even cover mammograms."

The ad then goes back to Trznadel: "If insurance companies don't cover the cost of mammograms, fewer women will get them -- and more women will die."

The TPM Poll Average currently puts Reid ahead by 47.7%-45.2%.

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DE-SEN

Educating Christine O'Donnell: LinkedIn-Gate, Lawsuits And Late Degrees Color Senate Hopeful's Resume

Christina Bellantoni | September 30, 2010, 1:05PM

Christine O'Donnell

Republican Christine O'Donnell is a perennial Senate candidate who seems to have enrolled in plenty of courses, certificate programs and think tank seminars to further her political ambitions.

Her frequent television appearances have surfaced on perma-reel as she tries to win over Delaware voters, and now, so has her checkered educational history. It's all sort of cloudy, and without O'Donnell sitting down with the press to clarify things it's hard to know exactly what's real, what's exaggerated and what's all just a misunderstanding.

[TPM SLIDESHOW: Christine O'Donnell: Anti-Masturbation Crusader. Witchcraft Dabbler. Republican Senate Nominee.]

So, after the jump, TPM breaks down O'Donnell's actual education, and all the various claims she has made about it.

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Joe Miller

Joe Miller Measures Drapes -- And Checks Out Some Real Estate -- On Visit To DC

Brian Beutler | September 30, 2010, 12:48PM

Joe Miller

There's measuring the drapes, and then there's measuring the drapes on a house you haven't bought, and may never own, but you're so convinced you will that, hey, let's buy drapes!

And there's hubris, Joe Miller-style.

So confident is Miller that he'll win Lisa Murkowski's Alaska Senate seat in November, he boasted last night to his over 4,000 Twitter followers that, on his trip to DC this week, he might do some house hunting. And perhaps buy some furniture. And also commission a name plaque for the door of his future Senate office.

The tweets were flagged by a source and sent my way. Check it out.

Read more »

DE-SEN

AP: O'Donnell's Anti-Sex Evangelism Group Hasn't Filed Tax Returns

Eric Kleefeld | September 30, 2010, 12:19PM

Christine O'Donnell

Delaware Republican Senate nominee Christine O'Donnell could potentially be in some further trouble -- and it doesn't have to do with her seemingly exaggerated educational background. This time, it turns out that her non-profit group could lose its tax-exempt status, due to failing to file the required tax forms.

The Associated Press reports:

IRS documents reviewed by The Associated Press show the group -- Savior's Alliance for Lifting the Truth -- is on a list of organizations threatened with revocation of its nonprofit status next month because it has not filed returns for three consecutive years.

O'Donnell founded the group in 1996 and is listed as its current president on the financial disclosure documents she filed with the U.S. Senate this summer. The alliance is a pro-abstinence outreach group aimed at young Christians.

SALT is the very same group in which O'Donnell mounted her famous anti-masturbation campaign in the 1990s, as part of the group's overall pro-chastity mission.

[TPM SLIDESHOW: Christine O'Donnell: Anti-Masturbation Crusader. Witchcraft Dabbler. Republican Senate Nominee.]

The TPM Poll Average gives Democratic nominee Chris Coons a lead of 55.0%-39.6% over O'Donnell.

Carl Paladino

NY Post Editor: Paladino 'Misrepresented What Occurred' Before Threatening Me

Jillian Rayfield | September 30, 2010, 11:47AM

New York Post state editor Fred Dicker nearly came to blows with Republican gubernatorial nominee Carl Paladino last night, who was angry about the way the press has been talking about his 10-year-old out-of-wedlock daughter. Dicker appeared on Fox News today to defend himself, saying that Paladino "misrepresented what occurred" before he threatened Dicker.

Read more »

MO-SEN

Roy Blunt Ad: Carnahan Family Got 'Payoff' From Stimulus Money (VIDEO)

Eric Kleefeld | September 30, 2010, 11:34AM

Campaign ad from Senate candidate Roy Blunt (R-MO), "Where's My Stimulus?"

Rep. Roy Blunt (R-MO) has a new ad in the Missouri Senate race, that openly accuses his Democratic opponent, Missouri Secretary of State Robin Carnahan, of corruptly enriching her family through her support of President Obama's policies

"They promised jobs. Instead we got generations of debt. Where'd our money go?" the ad says. "Ask Robin Carnahan. Her brother's wind farm got over a hundred million stimulus dollars. How? Robin Carnahan campaigned for Obama and the stimulus. Her brother lobbied for his special deal, and was a top Obama fundraiser. The payoff: Over a hundred million dollars. The Carnahans get a real windfall. We get the bill -- and no jobs."

The TPM Poll Average gives Blunt a lead of 51.2%-44.0%.

Read more »

Jim DeMint

Congress Sets Stage For Major Spending Showdown In December

Brian Beutler | September 30, 2010, 10:51AM

The Tea Party Caucus after its initial meeting on July 21

Democrats and Republicans are prepared for a big fight over spending next year if the balance of power on Capitol Hill changes hands. Some are even forecasting a government shutdown. But that fight could actually come earlier than anybody expected, particularly if Republicans make huge gains in November. As Congress adjourns for elections season they've set the stage for a tussle over spending this year.

Late last night, Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC) lost a little-noticed vote on government spending. In a hurry to hit the campaign trail, members of Congress left Washington without passing annual spending bills to keep the government running. Instead, Congress passed temporary legislation to keep the lights on temporarily -- until December 3, to be precise. To DeMint, this was a direct affront -- a ploy by Democrats to force a spending fight before newly elected members of Congress, mostly Republicans, are sworn in. He wanted Congress to keep the lights on until January, so the new Congress could make its own spending decisions.

His legislation failed, setting the stage for a loud political fight this fall.

Read more »

Tax Cuts

Jon Stewart On Dems Not Voting On Tax Cuts: 'We Came, We Saw, We Sucked' (VIDEO)

Jillian Rayfield | September 30, 2010, 10:50AM

Jon Stewart said last night that he's heard a lot about the enthusiasm gap between Democrats and Republicans this election cycle, which he said amounts to this:

Salivating Republicans are already camping out in front of the polls like they're waiting for the next Harry Potter book, while Democrats remain at home watching tapes of Obama's 2004 "red and blue America" speech, weeping and kicking Funion dust out of their belly buttons.

But, as Stewart pointed out, a "no-brainer" for the Democrats might be to pass the middle class tax cuts right before the election -- but House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer said that wouldn't happen. Stewart knew why: "Because we suuuuuuuck. We came, we saw, we suck."

Read more »

AK-SEN

Murkowski Ads Attack Tea Party Express -- And Teach Spelling (VIDEO)

Eric Kleefeld | September 30, 2010, 10:45AM

From a campaign ad for Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK), "Spelling Clinic 101."

Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK), who is running as a write-in candidate after she lost the Republican primary to Tea Party-backed lawyer Joe Miller, has a new pair of ads aimed at both selling her candidacy to voters -- and reminding them how to spell her name.

In one ad, a classroom of voters at the "Spelling Clinic" are told to correctly fill in the write-in oval and spell Murkowski's name.

While they are at work, the bemused instructor says to the camera: "Some outsiders say Alaskans aren't smart enough."

Read more »

Health Care

Sebelius: Secretive Campaign Spending Distorting Health Care Reform Is 'Alarming'

Christina Bellantoni | September 30, 2010, 10:43AM

Sec. of Health and Human Services Kathleen Sebelius

Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius told reporters today that unprecedented and "opaque" spending on television ads by shadowy groups is "dangerous," sounding a political note that could indicate she has a future within the administration or on the ballot down the line.

"I have never seen a situation like this at least in my lifetime. The amount of money being spent is just staggering. ... I think that's pretty dangerous," Sebelius said at a breakfast hosted this morning by the Christian Science Monitor.

Sebelius brought up campaign finance unprompted, and said she would prefer to see transparency since so many "millionaires and billionaires" are funding groups that pretend to be grassroots, especially to drive an anti-health care message. She twice called it "dangerous," adding that it's "pretty alarming."

Read more »

WA-SEN

Rasmussen: Rossi Leads WA-SEN By One Point

Evan McMorris-Santoro | September 30, 2010, 10:32AM

US Senate candidate Dino Rossi (R-WA)

Republican Dino Rossi has taken a one-point lead over incumbent Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA) according to the latest poll from Rasmussen. Murray leads in the poll 48-47.

That's a big momentum shift for Rossi, who trailed Murray by seven in Rasmussen's last poll of the race which was taken on Sept. 14. Both polls were conducted among likely voters, using the Rasmussen screen that Democrats have long contended is slanted toward the GOP (Rasmussen has just as long denied this).

Other polling from the contest shows a tightening race as well. The TPM Poll Average shows Murray leading 49.6-47.2.

The last three polls of the race -- two of which were conducted using Ramussen's methodology and automated call system -- have shown the race to be razor-close. A live-interview poll of the race conducted by CNN/Time on Sept. 14 showed Murray leading by 9 points.

Read more »

AK-SEN

Craciun Poll: Murkowski Leads Miller By 11 Points In AK-SEN

Eric Kleefeld | September 30, 2010, 10:00AM

Republican candidate for U.S. Senate Joe Miller and Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK)

A new poll of the Alaska Senate race from Craciun Research gives Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK), who is running as a write-in candidate after she lost the Republican primary to Tea Party-backed lawyer Joe Miller, a strong lead in her newly-constituted campaign.

The numbers: Murkowski 41%, Miller 30%, and Democratic nominee Scott McAdams 19%. The survey of likely voters has a ±5.7% margin of error. There is no prior Craciun survey of this race for direct comparison.

The poll's internals show Murkowski splitting voters who identify as "somewhat conservative" with Miller, while Miller dominates among "very conservative" respondents. Meanwhile, Murkowski wins a majority of moderates, the single largest group -- and even takes a third of self-identified liberals, who are choosing her over the Dem nominee in an apparent case of tactical voting to stop Miller.

As Nate Silver points out, this poll listed Murkowski as a choice for voters, though in fact they will have to write in her name on the ballot. (Alaska law applies a liberal standard for ascertaining the intent of the voter -- thus, a vote for her would still be counted even if her name is somewhat misspelled.) By contrast, Rasmussen has taken the opposite approach by not listing her in the initial question, and allowing respondents to voluntarily give her name -- and Rasmussen has shown her polling further behind. It is not clear what method is better for this highly unusual race.

DE-SEN

Mike Castle Not Running As Write-In Candidate For DE-SEN

Eric Kleefeld | September 30, 2010, 9:34AM

Rep. Mike Castle (R-DE)

Rep. Mike Castle (R-DE), who lost the Republican primary for Senate to conservative activist Christine O'Donnell in a big upset two weeks ago, has announced that he will not run a write-in campaign for the general election.

Today was the deadline to register a write-in candidacy with the state, had Castle decided to do so. "The party has spoken," Castle told the Wilmington News Journal. "I know a lot of people who didn't vote but that's the way it works. It's just part of the process. I respect the process." However Castle still said he has not changed his decision to not endorse O'Donnell, citing the "personal attacks and misrepresentations" by her campaign, but is simply endorsing the "Republican ticket." (Note: By "personal attacks," Castle might be referring to how O'Donnell's campaign spread rumors and innuendo that he was gay.)

A recent Rasmussen poll said that Castle would only get five percent of the vote as a write-in candidate -- and furthermore, he would take most of those votes away from Democratic nominee Chris Coons, thus doing O'Donnell a favor in the race.

The TPM Poll Average gives Coons a lead of 55.0%-39.6% over O'Donnell. The polls have also consistently shown that Castle would have led Coons if he had won the Republican primary.

NY-GOV

Not Even Rudy Giuliani Will Commit To Carl Paladino

Evan McMorris-Santoro | September 30, 2010, 9:00AM

Rudy Giuliani and Carl Paladino

Carl Paladino still has to convince New York's most prominent Republican that he's ready for the state's top job. On a conference call with reporters yesterday, I asked Rudy Giuliani if he planned to cast his ballot this fall for Paladino, the increasingly crazy-sounding nominee to replace the increasingly witty Gov. David Paterson (D). Guiliani said, essentially, that he's just not ready to commit to Paladino just yet.

The call came before Paladino's latest strategic moves, which include accusing his Democratic opponent of having an extramarital affair with no evidence and threatening on camera to "take out" a reporter he doesn't like.

Before anyone had seen any of that, Giuliani was not willing to say he'll personally vote for Paladino.

"You know, you can generally assume I'll vote Republican," he told me. "I've voted for Democrats but I mainly vote Republican most of the time. That'd be my inclination and my thinking, but frankly I haven't made a decision about that race yet."

Read more »

NY-GOV

Paladino Confronts Journalist: 'I'll Take You Out, Buddy!' (VIDEO)

Jillian Rayfield | September 30, 2010, 8:54AM

New York Post State Editor Fred Dicker and New York Republican gubernatorial candidate Carl Paladino

Seems that Carl Paladino has lived up to his "mad as hell" campaign slogan.

Last night at a campaign event in Lake George, the New York Republican gubernatorial nominee and New York Post state editor Fred Dicker had to be seperated, after they nearly came to blows during a heated exchange over Paladino's out-of-wedlock daughter.

Read more »

CA-SEN

Boxer And Fiorina Slug It Out In Debate

Eric Kleefeld | September 29, 2010, 6:51PM

Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA) and Republican Senate nominee Carly Fiorina

Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA) and her Republican opponent, former Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina, met today for a heated debate (though Boxer phoned it in from DC), hosted by the radio station KPCC in Pasadena and the Spanish-language newspaper La Opinion. A major theme emerged from the discussion -- that each one would often answer a question about their own position by attacking their opponent.

For example, when Fiorina was asked for comment about what federal regulations she would roll back, she referenced Endangered Species Act rules that cut off access to water resources in California's rural areas -- and how Barbara Boxer's links to "extreme" environmental groups keep her from doing anything about it.

On job creation, Boxer said, "The fact is our nation needs to incentivize companies like yours to hire American workers. We need to see the words 'made in America' again." And then she turned it right at Fiorina's business record: "She laid off 30,000 workers, shipped their jobs to China, to India, to Malaysia. She's said she's proud of what she did. The fact is I've met some of these people who she's laid off, I've heard some of their stories."

Read more »

CA-SEN

CNN/Time Polls: California Love For Boxer, Brown

Evan McMorris-Santoro | September 29, 2010, 6:17PM

California Attorney General and gubernatorial candidate Jerry Brown

Two new polls from CNN/Time are giving Democrats in California reason to celebrate. The party's nominees for governor and Senate -- both facing wealthy self-funders -- are ahead by nine points, the polls find.

Incumbent Sen. Barbara Boxer leads Republican nominee Carly Fiorina by margin of 52-43, the poll finds. That's the same margin that CNN/Time reports Jerry Brown (D) is ahead of Meg Whitman (R) in the gubernatorial race.

Compared with CNN/Time's last poll of the races, both sets of numbers show the Democrats gaining momentum. Boxer led by four in the last poll, and Brown trailed by two.

The TPM Poll Average for the Senate campaign shows Boxer ahead 48.0-44.3. The TPM Poll Average for the gubernatorial fight shows a much closer contest, with Whitman ahead 45.8-45.5.

Both CNN/Time polls were conducted among likely voters early this week. The margin of error for each is 3.5%.

MN-GOV

Univ. of MN Poll: Dayton Leads Emmer By 11 Points In MN-GOV

Eric Kleefeld | September 29, 2010, 6:09PM

MN Gov. candidates Mark Dayton (D), Tom Emmer (R) and Tom Horner (Independence Party)

A new University of Minnesota poll of the state's gubernatorial race finds Democratic former Sen. Mark Dayton taking a big lead over Republican state Rep. Tom Emmer -- and more importantly, it also suggests that Dem voters are waking up to the election.

The numbers: Dayton 38%, Emmer 27%, and Independence Party candidate Tom Horner with 16%. The survey of likely voters has a ±5.1% margin of error. In the previous University of Minnesota poll from a month ago, Dayton and Emmer were tied at 34%-34%, plus 13% for Horner.

The TPM Poll Average for this race gives Dayton 38.9%, Emmer 33.7%, and Horner 14.7%.

Read more »

FL-GOV

CNN/Time Poll: Rick Scott Leads By Two In FL-GOV

Evan McMorris-Santoro | September 29, 2010, 6:03PM

Rick Scott

The gubernatorial race in Florida is turning into a real nail-biter. According to a new poll from CNN/Time out today, controversial GOP nominee Rick Scott now leads Democratic nominee Alex Sink by two points, which is within the poll's margin of error. The poll shows Scott ahead 47-45 among likely voters (Sink leads by one among registered voters.)

In the last CNN/Time poll of the race, taken in early September, Sink led by seven. Since then, however, momentum has appeared to shift to Scott, who spent millions of his own sizable fortune securing the nomination over the protests of just about every member of the state Republican establishment. It appears Scott is now applying the skills he learned convincing Republican voters to back him over his moderate opponent in the primary to the general election with some success.

The TPM Poll Average shows Scott now leading the race by a razor-thin margin of 45.7-44.9.

Read more »

AK-SEN

CNN/Time Poll: Miller Only Ahead Of Murkowski By Two Points In AK-SEN

Eric Kleefeld | September 29, 2010, 5:29PM

Scott McAdams, Lisa Murkowski, and Joe Miller

The new CNN/Time poll of the Alaska Senate race shows that Tea Partier Joe Miller, the surprise Republican nominee, is still in the lead in this unusual election -- but that incumbent Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski, who is running a write-in campaign after she lost the primary, does have a fighting chance of catching him.

The numbers: Miller 38%, Murkowski 36%, and Democratic nominee Scott McAdams 22%. The survey of likely voters has a ±3% margin of error. There is no prior CNN/Time poll of this race for direct comparison.

A caveat: The question for this poll explicitly included Murkowski's write-in bid as a choice for voters. Another recent poll from Rasmussen did not include her name -- as she would not be on the ballot -- but left respondents able to voluntarily name her as their candidate. That poll gave Miller 42%, Murkowski 27% and McAdams 25%.

Is Rasmussen's method superior, or does this poll better capture the mood of the race given the heavy publicity for Murkowski? The answer is simple: We really don't know, and won't until election day, because there hasn't been a race like this one within living memory.

DE-SEN

Team O'Donnell Tells TPM: 'We're Still Figuring Out What To Do' On Disputed LinkedIn Profile

Evan McMorris-Santoro | September 29, 2010, 4:06PM

Christine O'Donnell

Officials with the Christine O'Donnell campaign told me today they don't know who or what is behind what O'Donnell claims is a false LinkedIn profile that's become the source of a whole ton of negative publicity for Delaware's Republican Senate nominee. One high-level official, who spoke on background before referring me to the communications staff, was quick to mention past instances where, the official said, false information about O'Donnell has been posted by her enemies in the hopes of tarnishing her image before the primary. The campaign's communications guy, Chris Merola, told me that the campaign is still deciding how to proceed with setting the record straight.

The LinkedIn account appears to be down as of this posting, but no one at the campaign immediately responded to requests for comment on the status of the profile.

O'Donnell disavowed the public profile -- which links her to at least two institutions of higher education that she did not attend -- in a statement released to reporters earlier today. When I asked where the profile could have come from, the campaign official offered no potential source but pointed out past instances when he said O'Donnell's enemies in the state GOP had posted disparaging comments about her on the internet under false names.

Read more »

Bush Tax Cuts

Dems Officially Decide To Delay Bush Tax Cut Vote Until After Election

Brian Beutler | September 29, 2010, 2:58PM

House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-MD) and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA)

It's over.

House Democrats will adjourn late this week without holding a last-minute vote on middle-income tax cuts, a top House Democratic aide confirmed to me this afternoon. The decision will dismay dozens of House progressives, and a growing array of observers and aides who believed that Democrats could have gained impressive political advantage by forcing Republicans to choose between giving all Americans a tax cut on their first $250,000, or holding out until the wealthiest Americans were given an additional break as well.

However, a significant number of Democrats, mostly conservative and vulnerable members, believed that upper-income tax cuts should be extended for a year. They were adamant that Republicans would have a stronger political hand going into election season if Speaker Nancy Pelosi held a vote on middle-income cuts in isolation.

Read more »

NV-SEN

Rasmussen Poll: Reid Up By One Point In NV-SEN

Eric Kleefeld | September 29, 2010, 2:04PM

US Senate candidate Sharron Angle (R-NV) and Senator Harry Reid (D-NV)

The new Rasmussen poll of the Nevada Senate race gives a one-point advantage to Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid agains this Republican opponent Sharron Angle.

The numbers: Reid 48%, Angle 47%.

The survey of likely voters has a ±4.14% margin of error. In the previous Rasmussen poll from two weeks ago, the two were tied at 48%-48%.

The TPM Poll Average currently puts Reid ahead by 47.7%-45.2%

WI-07

Sean Duffy Spins Logs In New Ad (VIDEO)

Eric Kleefeld | September 29, 2010, 1:31PM

Campaign ad from House candidate Sean Duffy (R-WI) "Get America Rolling Again!"

Sean Duffy, the Republican nominee (and former Real World star) running for the northern Wisconsin seat of retiring long-time Democratic Rep. David Obey, has a new ad that continues the lumberjack motif from his previous spot.

The last ad focused on chopping wood, while the new one is based on rolling logs through the water -- first with a career politician spinning various folks into the water, until Duffy comes along and triumphs.

"Washington's reckless spending and government growth is spinning our country out of control. The economy is suffering. And our working folks have been tossed aside," says Duffy. "Our government is trillions of dollars in debt. And our kids are left to soak up the cost. It's so bad, even our seniors have lost their footing. I'm Sean Duffy, and I approved this message -- because it's time we dunk our career politicians, and we get America back on track."

You have to wonder about this lumberjack gimmick in Duffy's ads. It's possible that he misread the Republican strategists' memos about appealing to Sarah Palin's voters -- and is instead copying Michael Palin.

Read more »

WI-SEN

MoveOn: 'Feingold's In Trouble'

Eric Kleefeld | September 29, 2010, 12:58PM

Sen. Russ Feingold (D-WI)

MoveOn is now raising money for Sen. Russ Feingold (D-WI), a longtime progressive champion. And they're really taking the hard sell -- with a dire warning that he's in serious danger.

The TPM Poll Average gives Republican businessman Ron Johnson a lead of 52.2%-43.6%. Polling has suggested that this is in large part due to a severe enthusiasm gap, with Dem voters less likely to turn out in this blue-leaning swing state.

MoveOn has a new fundraising email, out, entitled "Russ Feingold's in trouble." The title and the overall phrasing of the message itself seem tailored to jump-start Dems with the necessary sense of urgency.

Read more »

Social Security

1500 Tits For An A**: NOW Delivers Nipples To Alan Simpson

Brian Beutler | September 29, 2010, 12:53PM

The National Organization for Women had an unusual gift for Alan Simpson this morning. One thousand five hundred nipples. Or, as they termed it, "1500 Tits for an Ass."

Simpson, who co-chair's President Obama's deficit commission, regained notoriety this summer when he compared Social Security to a cow with 310 million tits. The milky metaphor was part of an angry email he sent to a critic -- Ashley Carson of the Older Women's League.

Read more »

Health Care

Reformers Fight Senior Citizen's Front Group With Bush Ties Over Health Care Law (VIDEO)

Brian Beutler | September 29, 2010, 12:43PM

Tea party activists rally in Washington D.C.

As Democrats and Republicans gird themselves for a fight over President Obama's health care law, the leading health care reform coalition in the country is locked in a brawl with the 60-Plus Association -- a corporate-backed organization posing as a senior citizen's advocacy group. And heading the fight for 60-Plus is a former Bush attorney with a history of attempting to suppress voter turnout.

At the center of the tussle are dozens of ads 60-Plus is running in districts of vulnerable Democrats who voted for the law. At a distinct financial disadvantage, progressive groups -- including Health Care for America Now and MoveOn -- are asking TV stations around the country to drop the ad, citing factual inaccuracies.

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DE-SEN

Christine O'Donnell Says She 'Never' Posted LinkedIn Profile That Has Wrong Education Info

Christina Bellantoni | September 29, 2010, 12:26PM

Christine O'Donnell

Senate candidate Christine O'Donnell (R-DE) has issued a statement saying the wrong information on her LinkedIn profile was posted by someone else. She's asked that LinkedIn remove the profile, which has false information about her educational background.

The profile, which you can view below, lists the University of Oxford and Claremont Graduate University under education.

Read more »

NV-SEN

Angle Denies Wanting To Privatize V.A. (Even Though She Said She Did)

Eric Kleefeld | September 29, 2010, 11:56AM

US Senate candidate Sharron Angle (R-NV)

Sharron Angle has still got it. In the wake of attacks over her previous position of privatizing the Department of Veterans Affairs, Angle is now denying that she wanted to tear down the system. In fact, she says that she was calling for the V.A. to "do a better job." But of course, the original transcript says quite the opposite.

As Jon Ralston reports, Angle was asked at a fundraiser this past weekend about Harry Reid's recent ad, which attacks her as wanting to "end our promise to veterans."

Read more »

2010 elections

Obama To 26K Cheering College Kids: I'm Going To 'Fight As Hard As I Can' (VIDEO)

Christina Bellantoni | September 29, 2010, 11:45AM

President Obama rallied college students in Madison, Wisconsin last night, returning to his fiery 2008 campaign rhetoric and telling young voters he needs them "to stay fired up."

You can watch the full speech below. It's part of a big push from the Obama White House to rekindle the campaign energy from two years ago in hopes of saving the House for the Democratic Party.

Read more »

DE-SEN

O'Donnell: God Won't Let Me Quit The Senate Race (VIDEO)

Eric Kleefeld | September 29, 2010, 11:08AM

Republican candidate for U.S. Senate Christine O'Donnell

Surprise Delaware Republican Senate nominee Christine O'Donnell cites an important source for her decision to have stayed in a Senate race that few people think she can win: God hasn't let her quit.

In a news segment with the Christian Broadcasting Network -- taped before her recently announced decision to stop doing national media interviews -- O'Donnell talked about how her Republican primary battle against Rep. Mike Castle seemed like such a long shot, and how she found the strength to keep going.

"God continued to strengthen and empower us, when you know his strength is perfected in our weakness, and that's exciting," said O'Donnell. "Because you see that if it weren't for faith, when all logic said it's time to quit, we pursued, we marched on, because we knew God was not releasing us to quit. And now, with such an important lame duck session, you realize why we were to endure all that stuff."

[TPM SLIDESHOW: Christine O'Donnell: Anti-Masturbation Crusader. Witchcraft Dabbler. Republican Senate Nominee.]

The TPM Poll Average gives Democratic nominee Chris Coons a lead of 55.0%-39.6%.

Read more »

2010 elections

President Obama To Huddle With Dem Leaders Thursday

Christina Bellantoni | September 29, 2010, 10:50AM

President Barack Obama

President Obama plans to meet with Democratic leaders on Thursday in one final huddle before members of Congress head home for the midterm elections.

Obama has stepped up his political activity recently, and White House aides say he and Vice President Joe Biden will be frequently on the trail to help their candidates try and retain control of Congress.

An administration official told TPM that leaders from both the House and Senate will meet with Obama Thursday afternoon at the White House. As we've been reporting, House Democrats are wrestling over whether to hold a vote on extending the Bush-era tax cuts for the middle class before the election. That decision is likely to be final by the time Speaker Nancy Pelosi and her leadership team arrive at the White House tomorrow.

Stephen Colbert

Colbert On 'Pledge To America': Everything's Going To Be Different -- Except Anything (VIDEO)

Jillian Rayfield | September 29, 2010, 10:11AM

Stephen Colbert was rather confused last night about the GOP's "Pledge To America," since John Boehner announced that it means "we are not going to be any different than we've been." Colbert said: "Yes, everything's going to be different -- except anything."

But, he continued, at least the Republicans are perkier than the Democrats: "Democrats are feeling disaffected. Which is different than most elections when they are stoked with cautious skepticism."

Colbert added: "In fact, Democratic self-loathing has gotten so bad that they've changed their symbol from the silhouette of a donkey to Eeyore eating a whole chocolate cheesecake."

Read more »

2010 elections

Tough New Ad In Florida: Charlie Crist's Republican Sound Bytes (VIDEO)

Evan McMorris-Santoro | September 29, 2010, 9:54AM

Gov. Charlie Crist (I-FL)

A new ad in the three-way Senate race in Florida shows independent candidate Charlie Crist for the man he was for years: a prominent name in the Republican Party. That could be enough to sink him.

Coverage of the spot has called it "crushing" and a "death blow" for Crist's campaign. But really the ad is just a collection of Crist's past statements on camera (some less than a month old) espousing his own conservatism and his connection to the GOP.

Those connections are many. Crist, as you'll recall, was a rising star of the GOP in 2008, appearing on John McCain's shortlist for vice-presidential nominees before being heavily courted by the NRSC to run for Florida's open Senate seat. All that came before Marco Rubio and the tea party upended things for Republicans like Crist, eventually pushing Crist to leave the party and run for the Senate as an independent. But even that road was a bumpy one, with Crist first trying to shift hard to the right to take on Rubio before changing direction and running just as hard to the left to pick up Democratic votes as an independent.

All of this happened on camera, of course, meaning the stage was set for Democratic nominee Kendrick Meek's new ad the moment Crist changed parties. Still, the fact that Crist's past is such an obvious liability speaks to the problems he's facing stealing votes from the effective Meek.

Read more »

FL-08

Susquehanna Poll: Alan Grayson Trails By 7 Points

Eric Kleefeld | September 29, 2010, 9:52AM

Rep. Alan Grayson (D-FL)

A new Susquehanna (R)/Sunshine State News poll of Florida's 8th District shows fiery liberal Democratic Congressman Alan Grayson trailing his Republican opponent, former state Sen. Dan Webster.

The numbers: Webster 43%, Grayson 36%, plus 6% for Tea Party candidate Peg Dunmire and independent George Metcalfe. The survey of likely voters has a ±4.14% margin of error. There is no previous poll of this race by this firm for direct comparison

The pollster's analysis finds that Grayson's unfavorable rating is at 51%: "He's even more unpopular than the president, which is not surprising given how controversial he has been with his rhetoric, overall style and TV ads."

Grayson's district has historically voted Republican, but swept him into office with the 2008 Obama wave. Since then, he has distinguished himself mainly by his over-the-top attacks on Republicans. In some ways, it seems like he's made a point of attacking Republicans with the same vitriolic rhetoric they use against Democrats. For example, he famously said the Republican health care plan is for people who get sick to "die quickly," imagined Dick Cheney as a vampire, and recently released an ad dubbing Webster "Taliban Dan," declaring that Webster is out to oppress women -- and in the latter case, appearing to take Webster's full comments out of context from the original video.

LA-SEN

Melancon Turns Vitter Prostitutution Reenactment Video Into Two-Minute TV Ad (VIDEO)

Brian Beutler | September 29, 2010, 9:04AM

Sen. David Vitter (R-LA) hearing testimony from oil executives.

This summer, Louisiana Dems hinted that their fall strategy to defeat Sen. David Vitter (R-LA) would be to vividly remind voters of Vitter's prostitute-laden scandal sheet. They unveiled a five-minute web ad that included a reenactment and a recreation of the "crime scene" where Vitter and a prostitute liaised.

Now, his challenger, Rep. Charlie Melancon (D-LA), has turned that web ad into a two-minute long TV spot, which will run on Louisiana cable statewide starting tonight or tomorrow.

The web-ad went viral on YouTube, and its successor contains much of the same footage that made Internet version so compelling. Melancon has lagged about 10 points behind Vitter for most of the campaign, but polls show that many Louisiana voters remain unaware of Vitter's previous scandals. In the final stretch of the campaign, Dems are hoping to change that.

Watch:

Read more »

NV-SEN

The Best Of Anti-Government (And Gov't Benefit-Receiving) Sharron Angle

Eric Kleefeld | September 29, 2010, 9:02AM

NV Sen. candidate Sharron Angle (R)

With the recent news that Sharron Angle, the Republican nominee for Senate in Nevada who is running on a platform of tearing down big government, actually receives government health care benefits through her husband's pension as a former federal employee, let's take a look at some of her best anti-government lines.

It is, of course, quite interesting that a candidate who so strongly opposes the federal government receives compensation from them. So let's keep in mind some of these really, really anti-government positions she has taken.

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Tax Cuts

Durbin: GOP Tax Cut Stubbornness Could Cripple Obama's Fiscal Commission

Brian Beutler | September 29, 2010, 9:01AM

Sen. Dick Durbin (D-IL)

One of the more progressive members of President Obama's fiscal commission acknowledged last night that the panel may find itself gridlocked if Republicans refuse to budge and agree to propose increasing tax revenue.

In a brief interview in the Senate press gallery, Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin summed it up this way: "Any honest appraisal of our job and how we do it requires raising tax revenue, and reducing spending. If you don't do those two things, you can't reach your goal."

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Gulf Coast Oil Spill

Administration Officials Plead With Landrieu To Drop Hold On OMB Nominee Jack Lew

Christina Bellantoni | September 29, 2010, 8:47AM

Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-LA)

Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu is holding up President Obama's key economic appointee in critical fiscal times over a local issue his economic team has no control over, giving Republicans campaign ammunition and throwing a wrench into budget planning just as the Senate is set to go home for the elections.

Secretary of the Interior Ken Salazar and other top administration officials have been pleading with Landrieu (D-LA) to release her hold on the nomination of Jack Lew to be President Obama's new Office of Management and Budget director. But Landrieu says she won't budge until the moratorium on Gulf Coast drilling is lifted.

OMB doesn't have jurisdiction over drilling, and Democrats are privately outraged someone from their own party would block such a critical nomination -- with several suggesting the state of gridlock in the Senate has reached an untenable level. What's more, the delay to install Lew creates big budgetary problems just as the administration is prepping for several major initiatives, including the 2012 spending blueprint.

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DE-SEN

Another School Says Christine O'Donnell Did Not Attend

Christina Bellantoni | September 28, 2010, 11:52PM

Christine O'Donnell

Claremont Graduate University tells TPM that Senate candidate Christine O'Donnell did not attend the Southern California school despite listing it under education on her LinkedIn profile.

Rod Leveque, a spokesman for the school, told TPM tonight:

Claremont Graduate University has no student or education record for an individual named Christine O'Donnell.

The discrepancy was first reported by Gary Scott, a radio producer in Los Angeles and longtime political reporter and editor.

[TPM SLIDESHOW: Christine O'Donnell: Anti-Masturbation Crusader. Witchcraft Dabbler. Republican Senate Nominee.]

[TPM VIDEO: Christine O'Donnell's Greatest Hits]

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CA-GOV

Billionaire Meg Whitman In First CA-Gov Debate: 'I Don't Think You Can Buy Elections'

Christina Bellantoni | September 28, 2010, 10:53PM

California gubernatorial candidates Jerry Brown (D) and Meg Whitman (R)

Meg Whitman and Jerry Brown clashed tonight in their first gubernatorial debate, with Brown charging Whitman only wanted to help billionaires like herself and Whitman slamming Brown as beholden to public employee unions. The two sparred for an hour in a debate that focused almost exclusively on the Golden State's economy and how they'd fix gridlock in Sacramento.

Moderators of the debate asked Whitman about charges she'd tried to "buy" California votes by spending more than $119 million so far, and with five weeks still to go before election day. The governor's race in California is usually battled on the television airwaves, and Whitman's ads have been bombarding voters for months.

"I don't think you can buy elections, I think Californians are too smart," Whitman said. "What you can do is get your message out."

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AK-SEN

Dem McAdams Ad In AK-SEN: I've Been Cursed At In Norwegian On A Fishing Boat (VIDEO)

Eric Kleefeld | September 28, 2010, 6:46PM

Ad from candidate for U.S. Senate Scott McAdams (D-AK), "Norwegian"

Scott McAdams, the Democratic nominee in the topsy-turvy Alaska Senate race, has a new ad introducing himself to the voters of the state as a regular guy aboard a fishing boat -- getting cursed at in Norwegian.

McAdams is running against Republican lawyer Joe Miller and incumbent GOP Sen. Lisa Murkowski, who is running as a write-in candidate after she lost her primary. Recent polling has put Miller in first, Murkowski in second, and McAdams in third. McAdams's ad shows him on a rustic fishing boat, with his voiceover narration asking voters to look past the race's soap opera aspects.

"This is a long way from D.C. I'm Scott McAdams, and I'm not your usual Senate candidate. I grew up in Petersburg, was a deckhand in the Bering Sea, went to college in Sitka, and married up. I've been a teacher, a mayor, and a dad. Here's the difference between me, Joe and Lisa: They think this campaign is all about them. I think it's about Alaska, and getting our fair share.

"I approved this message -- because after you've been cursed at in Norwegian, you can take on anyone."

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DE-SEN

DSCC Ad: O'Donnell Spends Campaign Money On Herself (VIDEO)

Eric Kleefeld | September 28, 2010, 6:35PM

DSCC "About" ad attacking Christine O'Donnell

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has a new attack ad out in the Delaware Senate race, further hammering Republican nominee Christine O'Donnell. Like their previous ad, the DSCC stays away from O'Donnell's numerous controversial statements and right-wing positions, and instead focuses on her personal finances -- and her campaign finances, and how the two seem to be mixed together.

"Christine O'Donnell spends money like she's already in Washington," the announcer says. "She put her mother on her campaign payroll. She spent campaign money on personal expenses -- including dinners, travel, even paying half her rent.

"So Christine O'Donnell spent money on herself, but she didn't pay her own employees. Christine O'Donnell. She thinks it's all about her. When we need someone who's all about us."

[TPM SLIDESHOW: Christine O'Donnell: Anti-Masturbation Crusader. Witchcraft Dabbler. Republican Senate Nominee.]

The TPM Poll Average gives Democratic nominee Chris Coons a lead of 55.0%-39.6%. So it seems quite interesting that the Dems are dropping money here. Then again, O'Donnell has been raising money hand over fist online, so that probably does need to be countered.

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KY-SEN

Rand Paul Freaks Out Old People In New Conway Spot (VIDEO)

Evan McMorris-Santoro | September 28, 2010, 5:40PM

US Sen. candidate Rand Paul (R-KY)

Rand Paul will make your grandma pay $2,000 to get Medicare treatments, according to a new TV ad from Paul's rival in the Kentucky Senate race, Democratic nominee Jack Conway. Using a new video from the deep trove of potential oppo research Paul has left in his wake, the Conway camp has put together a tough ad that -- literally -- shows Paul creeping out very nice old ladies.

Back in 2009, Paul told a group of "conservative leaders in Lexington" (Conway's camp isn't being/can't be more specific) that if he had his druthers, Medicare coverage would come with a $2,000 deductible to help reduce the cost of the program.

"We have to figure out how to get to more of a market-based system," Paul says in the 2009 appearance, which was captured on video and sent over by Conway's team. "The real answer to Medicare would be a $2,000 deductible -- but try selling that one in an election year."

Needless to say, the prospect of forking over $2,000 to get treatment covered by Medicare would likely be controversial one among seniors groups. Conway's ad predicts the possible outcome of Paul's Medicare plan with a series of upset old people speaking directly to camera.

"I can't afford that," says one woman.

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Tommy Sowers

Dem Campaign Ad: My Opponent Is Dropping Horse Manure On Me (VIDEO)

Jillian Rayfield | September 28, 2010, 5:22PM

Ad from Congressional candidate Tommy Sowers (D-MO), "Jo Ann Emerson's Horse Manure"

Democrat Tommy Sowers, who is running for Congress in Missouri's 8th district, calls out incumbent Rep. Jo Ann Emerson in a new ad for the "ton of horse manure" she's dumped on him.

Then at the end, he fires a gun.

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WA-SEN

Fox News Poll: Dem Leads By One In WA-SEN

Evan McMorris-Santoro | September 28, 2010, 3:59PM

Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA)

It couldn't be closer in the Washington Senate race, according to a new poll from Fox News. Well, I take it back -- it could be just a little closer. The poll of likely voters conducted for Fox by a branch of the Rasmussen polling empire shows incumbent Sen. Patty Murray (D) leading Republican nominee Dino Rossi by just one point. Murray is ahead 48-47 according to the new numbers.

There is no previous Fox News poll for direct comparison. The TPM Poll Average shows Murray leading 50.0-47.0.

The Fox poll is the latest in a string to show the race tightening since the state's well-respected Elway Poll showed Murray ahead by nine back on Sept. 12. Since then, automated pollsters Rasmussen and SurveyUSA have shown the race to be closer, though a live telephone interview CNN/Time poll showed the Elway margin holding.

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DE-SEN

Christine O'Donnell Lies About Attending Oxford University

Christina Bellantoni | September 28, 2010, 3:46PM

Christine O'Donnell

Senate nominee Christine O'Donnell (R-DE) proclaimed on her LinkedIn the University of Oxford under "education," but it turns out that's another exaggeration on her resume. The claim is that O'Donnell earned a certificate from an Oxford course which her campaign said is "overseen" by a summer seminar program called the Phoenix Institute.

[TPM SLIDESHOW: Christine O'Donnell At The Values Voter Summit]

The Washington Post's Greg Sargent uncovered the whopper of a discrepancy, and a Phoenix representative overseeing the course she took told Sargent that O'Donnell's LinkedIn claim is "misleading."

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Doug Elmendorf

CBO Chief: High Income Tax Cuts Slow Income Growth

Brian Beutler | September 28, 2010, 3:38PM

Intentionally or not (but probably intentionally), Senate Budget Committee chairman Kent Conrad has mastered the art of deploying CBO chief Doug Elmendorf to ostensibly make the case for Conrad's policy preferences, under oath.

Today, Elmendorf made two key points before Conrad's panel: one will be used by Republicans to argue for a permanent extension of the Bush tax cuts; and the other will be used by Democrats to argue for letting Bush's high-income cuts expired. Both will, of course, bolster Conrad's argument for his own compromise position on tax cuts.

Here, in Elmendorf's words, is what will surely be the Republican talking point:

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OH-GOV

Second Poll Shows Tight Race In OH-GOV

Evan McMorris-Santoro | September 28, 2010, 3:12PM

Gov. Ted Strickland (D-OH)

Rumors of Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland's political demise may have been greatly exaggerated. A new Fox News poll conducted by a Rasmussen firm over the weekend shows Strickland just two points behind Republican nominee John Kasich among likely voters.

Kasich leads 45-43 in the poll. Though Democrats generally shy away from both Fox News and Rasmussen, the combination of both seemed to please Strickland's camp, which sent out links to the poll earlier today. That's probably because the poll is the second to shoot down the truly awful poll numbers Strickland was facing just a couple weeks ago. Kasich seemed to be running away with the race. No longer, says Fox.

"Kasich's lead of six points last week was cut down to 2 points," the pollster reports, adding that Kasich "has run into some bumps."

Yesterday, a University of Cincinnati poll showed Strickland was down by just four points.

The TPM Poll Average shows Kasich leading the race 49.9-41.1.

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NV-SEN

Angle Campaign: Yes, GOPer Benefits From Government Health Care And Pension

Eric Kleefeld | September 28, 2010, 3:10PM

US Senate candidate Sharron Angle (R-NV)

Here's another fun wrinkle in the Nevada Senate race, where Republican nominee Sharron Angle supports privatizing Social Security and all the major federal health care programs: She and her husband receive their own health care and a pension through the federal government.

Granted, Angle's husband Ted Angle receives his pension and health care as a former federal employee -- not directly through a social welfare program. Then again, Angle's proposals to slash government aren't all that friendly to federal employees, either.

Angle spokeswoman Ciara Matthews said in a statement:

"Mr. Ted Angle receives his pension through the (federal) Civil Service Retirement System. While it is not supplemented by the federal government, current civil servants pay into the program to pay the schedule of those already retired - much like how the Social Security Program works today. Mr. Angle does not qualify - nor does he receive Social Security benefits. His health insurance plan (the Federal Employee Health Program), which also covers Sharron, is a continuation of what he was receiving while he worked for the federal government."

The TPM Poll Average currently gives Harry Reid a lead of 47.2%-44.9%.

(Via Politico and Think Progress.)

WI-SEN

GOPer Ron Johnson's Ad In WI-SEN: I'm Not A Lawyer (VIDEO)

Eric Kleefeld | September 28, 2010, 2:33PM

Ad from candidate for U.S. Senate Ron Johnson (R-WI), "57"

Ron Johnson, the Republican nominee against Democratic Sen. Russ Feingold in the Wisconsin Senate race, has a new ad that pretty much sums up his campaign pitch, presenting himself as a political outsider and businessman in the middle of a seemingly anti-incumbent environment.

"There are 100 members of the U.S. Senate. Fifty-seven of them -- including Russ Feingold -- are lawyers," says Johnson, standing in front of a large whiteboard and writing out the figures with a marker. "That'd be fine, if we had a lawsuit to settle. But we have an economy to fix. There are zero manufacturers and one accountant. It's no wonder we're losing jobs and piling up debt. I'm not a politician. I'm an accountant and a manufacturer. I know how to balance a budget, and I do know how to create jobs. Now that's something we could really use."

The TPM Poll Average gives Johnson a lead of 52.2%-43.6%.

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IL-SEN

Fox News Poll: Kirk Leads Giannoulias By Two Points In IL-SEN

Eric Kleefeld | September 28, 2010, 1:16PM

IL-SEN candidates Rep. Mark Kirk (R) and state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias (D)

The new Fox News poll of the Illinois Senate race gives Republican Mark Kirk a narrow lead over Democrat Alexi Giannoulias -- with quite a few protest votes for the Green Party candidate LeAlan Jones.

The numbers: Kirk 42%, Giannoulias 40%, and Jones 7%. The survey of likely voters has a ±3% margin of error. There is no previous Fox News poll of this race. However, this poll was conducted through a Rasmussen offshoot, Pulse Opinion Research, which performs made-to-order robopolls. In the previous Rasmussen poll from last week, Kirk had 44%, Giannoulias 41%, and Jones 4%.

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Steny Hoyer

Hoyer: Middle Class Tax Cut Vote 'Certainly Under Consideration' Before Election

Brian Beutler | September 28, 2010, 1:00PM

House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-MD)

At his weekly press conference this morning, House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer was at the center of a fusillade of questions about middle class tax cuts: Why haven't House Democrats held a vote? Is a vote before the midterm elections still possible? Why not put Republicans on the spot?

His response suggests that Democrats are still undecided about whether to force a tax cut vote this week. But though they may still surprise everybody and push ahead tomorrow or Thursday, they're running out of time to decide.

"If we thought we could get it through the Senate absolutely we would act," Hoyer told reporters, "and we may well act anyhow."

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NY-SEN

Marist Poll: Gillibrand Leading By 12 Points In NY-SEN

Jillian Rayfield | September 28, 2010, 12:08PM

Joe Dioguardi (R) and Sen. Kristen Gillibrand (D-NY)

A new Marist poll of likely voters shows Democratic Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand leading Republican Joe DioGuardi 54%-42% in the New York senate race.

The previous Marist poll -- from all the way back in early May -- gave Gillibrand a 50%-30% lead.

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2010 elections

VP Joe Biden To Democrats: 'Buck Up!' (VIDEO)

Christina Bellantoni | September 28, 2010, 12:02PM

Vice President Joe Biden told Democrats that it's "time to focus" on winning in November, scolding dispirited members of his party for saying they might not vote in the midterm elections.

"Those who didn't get anything they wanted, it's time to just buck up here, understand that we can make things better, continue to move forward, but not yield the playing field to those folks who are against everything that we stand for in terms of the initiatives we put forward," Biden said last night when appearing on the debut of Lawrence O'Donnell's new show on MSNBC.

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CA-SEN

Chamber Slams Boxer As Anti-Business In New California Ad Blitz (VIDEO)

Christina Bellantoni | September 28, 2010, 11:49AM

Anti-Barbara Boxer ad from the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, "28 Years"

The U.S. Chamber of Commerce is running a new television ad in California targeting Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) as doing little in her nearly three decades of service. Boxer faces a competitive race against former HP CEO Carly Fiorina, one of several Republican candidates the chamber is spending big bucks to boost this fall.

The ad focuses on a theme Fiorina hit in her first television ad and during their first debate, that Boxer has few accomplishments to show for her 28 years in Washington.

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CO-SEN

Fox News Poll: GOPer Buck Leads Dem Bennet By Four Points In CO-SEN

Eric Kleefeld | September 28, 2010, 11:48AM

Republican candidate for the U.S. Senate race in Colorado Ken Buck and Sen. Michael Bennet (D-CO)

The new Fox News poll of the Colorado Senate race gives Republican nominee Ken Buck a narrow lead over appointed Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet.

The numbers: Buck 47%, Bennet 43%. The survey of likely voters has a ±3% margin of error. There is no previous Fox News poll of this race. However, this poll was conducted through a Rasmussen offshoot, Pulse Opinion Research, which performs made-to-order robopolls. In the previous Rasmussen poll from two and a half weeks ago, Buck led by a similar four-point margin of 49%-45%, but with fewer undecideds.

The TPM Poll Average gives Buck a lead of 47.2%-43.4%.

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Barack Obama

'Destructive' Fox News And The 'Darker' Parts Of The Tea Party: Obama's Rolling Stone Interview

Evan McMorris-Santoro | September 28, 2010, 11:40AM

President Barack Obama

Progressives itching to hear President Obama call out the tea party, take on Fox News and call on his liberal base to step up to the plate in November should head to newsstands and pick up the Oct. 15 issue of Rolling Stone (or just click here). Progressives who want to quibble with Obama and listen to him explain why LGBT rights haven't found their way into the U.S. military yet, why Gitmo's still open and why they have no public health insurance option should pick up a copy, too.

Two years after Obama became the first politician to ever win an endorsement from the magazine, Rolling Stone's Jann Wenner sat down for a wide-ranging interview with the the president that seems directly aimed at his Democratic progressive base. From discussing the hipness of his iPod (L'il Wayne plus a little opera, natch) to coming this close to calling the tea party racist, it's a fun read for his fans. For his left-leaning detractors, the president's probably still got a lot to answer for.

Here now are some juicy morsels from the interview.

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Jim DeMint

Jim DeMint Plans To Grind Senate To A Halt

Brian Beutler | September 28, 2010, 11:32AM

Jim DeMint

Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC) is telling members that he plans to grind the already lethargic Senate to a complete halt at the end of the day.

DeMint's staff informed all Senate offices yesterday that he plans to hold all legislation that hasn't been "hot lined" by the end of business on Tuesday, forcing each piece of legislation the Democrats hope to address before the election to overcome days' worth of procedural obstacles.

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CO-GOV

Fox News Poll: Hickenlooper Stills Leads CO-GOV, As Maes Loses More Support To Tancredo

Eric Kleefeld | September 28, 2010, 11:31AM

CO Gov. candidates John Hickenlooper (D), Dan Maes (R) and Tom Tancredo (Constitution).

The new Fox News poll of the Colorado gubernatorial race shows Democratic Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper continuing to lead the race, thanks to a split conservative vote between the gaffe-prone Republican nominee Dan Maes and Constitution Party nominee Tom Tancredo, a former Republican Congressman. Furthermore, Tancredo has for the moment definitely overtaken Maes as the alternative to the Dem.

The numbers: Hickenlooper 44%, Tancredo 34%, and Maes at only 15%. The survey of likely voters has a ±3% margin of error. There is no previous Fox News poll of this race. However, this poll was conducted through a Rasmussen offshoot, Pulse Opinion Research, which performs made-to-order robopolls. In the previous Rasmussen poll from two and a half weeks ago, Hickenlooper had 46%, Tancredo 25%, and Maes 21%.

The poll also found that Hickenlooper would lead Maes in a two-way race by a margin of 51%-37%. There was no question done for a two-way race of Hickenlooper and Tancredo -- a question that could become quite relevant if Maes continues to lose support.

The TPM Poll Average gives Hickenlooper 45.9%, Tancredo 32.0%, and Maes 16.8%.

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WI-SEN

Fox News Poll: GOPer Johnson Leads Feingold By 8 Points In WI-SEN

Eric Kleefeld | September 28, 2010, 11:18AM

Senator Russ Feingold (D-WI) and Senate candidate Ron Johnson (R-WI)

The new Fox News poll of the Wisconsin Senate race has bad news for Democratic Sen. Russ Feingold, with an eight-point lead for Republican businessman Ron Johnson.

The numbers: Johnson 52%, Feingold 44%. The survey of likely voters has a ±3% margin of error. There is no previous Fox News poll of this race. However, this poll was conducted through a Rasmussen offshoot, Pulse Opinion Research, which performs made-to-order robopolls. In the previous Rasmussen poll from two weeks ago, Johnson led by a similar margin of 51%-44%.

The TPM Poll Average gives Johnson a lead of 52.2%-43.6%.

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SEIU

Liberal Groups Launch Spanish-Language Radio Ad Attacking GOP

Eric Lach | September 28, 2010, 11:10AM

The SEIU, Mi Familia Vota and America's Voice today launched a Spanish-language radio ad in six states, highlighting Republican opposition to the DREAM act, among other issues.

Officially titled the Development, Relief and Education for Alien Minors Act, the Dream Act would allow a conditional permanent residency for students who graduate from high school and earn or are on track to earn a college degree. It would help potentially millions of illegal immigrants who were brought here illegally by their parents as young children and attended schools in the U.S. all their life.

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FL-08

Webster: Wives Should Submit Themselves To Their Husbands -- If They Want To (VIDEO)

Brian Beutler | September 28, 2010, 11:03AM

Republican congressional candidate Daniel Webster

This weekend Alan Grayson went live with a striking ad, bringing to light his opponent Daniel Webster's extreme religious views. The ad, called "Taliban Dan," highlights Webster's positions on divorce (against) and abortion (not even in cases of rape), but it also spliced in footage of Webster telling an audience "wives submit yourselves to your own husband," and "submit to me."

The Webster campaign points out that the remarks are taken out of context. Webster actually said husbands and wives should dedicate Bible verses to one another. Men should use them to reinforce their commitment to their wives. Women should use them to submit themselves to their husbands... if they want to.

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WV-SEN

DSCC Ad Attacks GOPer Raese In WV-SEN (VIDEO)

Eric Kleefeld | September 28, 2010, 10:50AM

Ad from the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, "Opposes"

In a sign of national Democratic concern about the West Virginia Senate race, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has a new TV ad attacking the Republican nominee, businessman John Raese, for his right-wing stances on economic issues in this blue-collar state.

"John Raese. He wants to eliminate the minimum wage. Failed to pay workers compensation for on-the-job injuries," the announcer says. "But one thing John Raese does support: A pledge that protected tax breaks for corporations who ship our jobs overseas. It's true. Protecting tax breaks that reward corporations for sending our jobs overseas.

"West Virginia working families, we can do better -- and we have to."

This ad comes on the heels of recent polls that have shown Raese narrowly leading Democratic Gov. Joe Manchin in the race thanks to the state's high disapproval of President Obama. For example, a Public Policy Polling (D) survey last week put Raese ahead by 46%-43%, and a Rasmussen poll released this morning puts him ahead by 48%-46%. Republican advertising has aggressively tied Manchin to Obama, so the Dems are firing back by going after Raese's background in big business.

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Stephen Colbert

Jon Stewart Defends Colbert's Capitol Hill Testimony (VIDEO)

Jillian Rayfield | September 28, 2010, 10:31AM

Jon Stewart defended Stephen Colbert's testimony before Congress last week, or, as he put it, the day Colbert "ruined Congress." Colbert's testimony was criticized by several politicians, including House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer, who said that "it was an embarrassment for Mr. Colbert more than the House."

Stewart was not surprised by this: "Of course Colbert is more embarrassed than the House of Representatives. Colbert still has dignity and integrity left to lose! You can't embarrass Congress! How could you?"

Rep. Steve King (R-IA) was also rather vocal with his anger at Colbert, appearing on Fox News to lament how the comedian's appearance was mostly about lawmakers wanting to get more "camera time." Stewart responded to King's remarks: "Yes, it is annoying how enamored certain Congressman are with seeing themselves on camera."

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CT-SEN

Quinnipiac Poll: Blumenthal's Lead Shrinks To Three Points In CT-SEN

Eric Kleefeld | September 28, 2010, 10:05AM

CT-SEN candidates Richard Blumenthal (D) and Linda McMahon (R)

The new Quinnipiac poll of the Connecticut Senate race shows Republican former World Wrestling Entertainment CEO Linda McMahon continuing to close the gap against Democratic state Attorney General Richard Blumenthal, with the Dem's lead down to only three points.

[TPM SLIDESHOW: Bringing The Smackdown: Linda McMahon's Campaign For Senate, And Her Colorful Pro-Wrestling Past]

The numbers: Blumenthal 49%, McMahon 46%. The survey of likely voters has a ±3% margin of error. In the previous Quinnipiac poll from two weeks ago, Blumenthal led by 51%-45%.

The TPM Poll Average gives Blumenthal a lead of 49.7%-44.6%.

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WV-SEN

Rasmussen Poll: GOPer Raese Leads Manchin By Two Points In WV-SEN

Eric Kleefeld | September 28, 2010, 9:20AM

In a big development in the West Virginia Senate race, the new Rasmussen poll shows Republican businessman John Raese taking a narrow lead over Democratic Gov. Joe Manchin, in the race to succeed the late Dem Sen. Robert Byrd.

The numbers: Raese 48%, Manchin 46%. The survey of likely voters has a ±4.0% margin of error. The previous Rasmussen poll from last week was quite different, with Manchin ahead by 50%-43%.

From the pollster's analysis: "This race has been closer than expected for weeks as Manchin, despite his popularity with voters in the state, faces an electorate that is even unhappier with the national Democratic agenda than voters in most other parts of the country."

Beverly Hills Tea Party

Take Back Our Rodeo Drive: Pat Boone Helps Launch 'Beverly Hills Tea Party' (VIDEOS)

Jillian Rayfield | September 28, 2010, 9:19AM

Ralliers at the Beverly Hills Tea Party

Just call it "Beverly Hills, 9021-Obama Is A Socialist."

Last weekend, famous crooner and national spokesman for the 60 Plus Association Pat Boone launched a "Beverly Hills Tea Party." Aimed at those lonely conservatives in Los Angeles, the rally featured the creme de la creme of right-wing celebrities, who, as always, warned against our socialist President and the tyranny he and his pesky liberal brethren are trying to impose.

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Joe Miller

Homeowning Lawyer Joe Miller Sought Low-Income Hunting And Fishing License In Alaska

Brian Beutler | September 28, 2010, 9:17AM

Republican candidate for US Senate in Alaska Joe Miller

The evidence of tea party hypocrisy is long, and always growing.

The latest entry: In 1995 conservative Joe Miller, who wants to end the welfare state, acquired low-income hunting and fishing licenses, meant for families with an annual income of less than $8200 a year. Raising more questions: at the same time, Miller had just purchased a home in Anchorage and begun working as an attorney for a well-known firm for $70,000 a year, according to the Anchorage Daily News.

The Miller camp explains that he technically qualified for the low income license because he'd most recently been a law student on scholarship at Yale, and he and his wife survived on loans. To qualify for a low-income license, residents must live in Alaska for over a year. He claims his wife spent 1994 in their Alaska home while he finished up school...but he acknowledges that they were able to afford the house by selling off property he owned in the midwest.

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Rahm Emanuel

Emanuel Expected To Announce White House Departure This Week

Rachel Slajda | September 28, 2010, 9:06AM

Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel

White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel is expected to announce this week whether he will leave the White House in order to run for mayor of Chicago.

Emanuel has not yet made a decision, according to a source close to him. "Because of family considerations, no final decision has been made," the source said, but added that Emanuel "is nearing a decision" and will announce "as early as Friday."

[TPM SLIDESHOW: Fist Bumps, Football And Friends: The End Of Summer With The Obamas]

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Congress

Thought Colbert Was Bad? Here Are The Top Five Head-Scratching Celebrity Congessional Testimonials

Christina Bellantoni | September 28, 2010, 8:00AM

Elmo testifying on Capitol Hill.

Republicans and even House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer were none-too-pleased with Stephen Colbert's testimony Friday on immigration, but he's far from the only celebrity to bring the sacrosanct hearings down to a new low.

Compare Colbert appearing in character to highlight that the agricultural work performed by many illegal immigrants is backbreaking, with, say, Michael Crichton helping push Republicans' line that global warming is fake, or with a Sesame Street muppet championing education reform. From the Jonas Brothers to Sean Astin, celebrities have long offered their fame to highlight some pet issue. And let's face it, Congressional hearings are far from pristine, serious events. Half the time members don't show up, or they check out, reading the newspaper. Witnesses go through some pre-coaching, and protesters interrupt proceedings.

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2010 elections

Obama Aims To Rekindle Youth Starpower For Midterms

Christina Bellantoni | September 28, 2010, 6:00AM

July 26, 2007

In 2008, Barack Obama somehow proved wrong the skeptics who swore up and down that young people can't be motivated to vote in large numbers. His campaign aggressively targeted college campuses, enticed 17-year-olds who'd be just old enough to participate and asked school-age children to convince their parents he was the best candidate.

And Obama needs them now more than ever.

Cue this week's big education push, which Democrats say aims to respark energy and voting enthusiasm among young people.

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Bush Tax Cuts

In Record Time, Fox Host Confuses Taxes, Spending, Socialism, And Fiscal Responsibility (VIDEO)

Brian Beutler | September 27, 2010, 7:15PM

Fox News hosts are masters at shouting down their own guests when disagreements arise. Here's a somewhat less-used tactic: increasingly absurd, scattershot questions, meant to yield an admission from the guest that she's a socialist.

This afternoon, Stuart Varney interviewed Occidental College professor Caroline Heldman, with the goal of walking Heldman, in Socratic-fashion, to the conclusion that President Obama is wrong to criticize the GOP for proposing "a series of policies that are just irresponsible...they say they want to balance the budget, they propose $4 trillion worth of tax cuts."

Unfortunately Varney confused "fiscal responsibility" with spending levels, and things went south from there.

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TX-GOV

Poll: Perry Leads By Seven In TX-GOV

Evan McMorris-Santoro | September 27, 2010, 6:12PM

Gov. Rick Perry (R-TX)

The Texas gubernatorial race could still be a close one, according to a new poll from a consortium of Lone Star State newspapers this weekend. The poll of likely voters was conducted last week and shows incumbent Gov. Rick Perry (R) leading Democratic nominee Bill White 46-39.

"It certainly looks like [Perry] is headed for another term," pollster Mickey Blum told the Austin American-Statesman. "Not that Bill White couldn't get it."

Still, internals of the poll show that's an uphill climb:

Despite White's yearlong effort to attract independents and Republicans, the race breaks down along party lines. Republicans and right-leaning independents largely support Perry, while Democrats and left-leaning independents prefer White.

But there are more Republicans than Democrats in Texas, and GOP voters are more excited about the election, so White has been stuck in second place.

Catching Perry will be difficult because the Texas electorate is relatively stable, Blum said.

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FL-SEN

'Fire-Breathing Liberal' Dem Wexler Endorses Crist In FL-SEN

Eric Kleefeld | September 27, 2010, 5:38PM

Gov. Charlie Crist (I-FL) and Fmr. Rep. Robert Wexler (D-FL)

Gov. Charlie Crist (I-FL), the former Republican now running for Senate as an independent, picked up the support of a big Democratic name yesterday: Former Rep. Robert Wexler (D-FL), the self-proclaimed "fire-breathing liberal."

"There is a special time in which elected officials and people to which people look to have to put country before party and this is one of those times," Wexler told a campaign audience in his old district. "I am here to endorse Gov. Charlie Crist because he has earned it. He has truly earned it."

As reasons for his support, Wexler cited Crist's veto of a bill that would have eliminated teacher tenure -- a key event that sealed Crist's switch from a Republican to independent -- and his veto of another bill that would have required women seeking abortions to get ultra-sounds.

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2010 elections

AFL-CIO Drops Millions Of Mailers In Key Races

Eric Kleefeld | September 27, 2010, 4:50PM

Richard Trumka, President of the AFL-CIO

The AFL-CIO is continuing to throw its weight into the midterm elections, Politico reports, with a whole new load of mailers in different key races.

All in all, the AFL-CIO is dropping 3.5 million mailers into 66 races this week. Among the key picks:

• A mailer in the Connecticut Senate race, featuring a pro-wrestler in a mask, with the text proclaiming: "Don't let Linda McMahon put the smack down on Connecticut workers.

• A mailer in the West Virginia Senate race, hammering Republican businessman John Raese and promoting Democratic Gov. Joe Manchin: "After the deadliest mining disaster in 40 years, one Senate candidate wants to 'unshackle' management from safety regulations, and one is fighting to make them stronger."

• A mailer in Florida's 8th District, home to the fiery liberal Dem Congressman Alan Grayson, attacking Republican candidate Dan Webster for wanting to renew the Bush tax cuts for the wealthy: "Wall street wrecked our economy, and America's middle class paid the price. Now, Daniel Webster wants to repeat the past."

OH-GOV

Poll: Strickland Within Four In OH-GOV Race

Evan McMorris-Santoro | September 27, 2010, 3:40PM

Gov. Ted Strickland (D-OH)

The Ohio Senate race may be looking like a runaway for the GOP, but the Buckeye State's gubernatorial fight could still be interesting, according to a new poll from the University of Cincinnati out this weekend.

The poll of likely voters taken last week shows Republican nominee John Kasich leading incumbent Gov. Ted Strickland (D) 49-45. A previous poll taken by the university in May showed Strickland ahead 49-44. Since then, polls have shown Kasich with the momentum. Still, with other recent polls showing Kasich ahead by double-digits, Strickland seems to think the university poll -- which is co-sponsored by several newspapers in the state -- is cause for celebration.

"Clearly the race for governor is tightening up -- a contest which takes place as Ohio struggles to lift itself out of a severe economic downturn (unemployment stood at 10.1 percent in August) and a looming multi-billion dollar budget hole," the Cincinnati Enquirer reports. "But there is good news and bad news for the incumbent governor in the fact that the race is now close."

The paper quotes a pollster who says "the fact is, for an incumbent governor, it's a little bit late in the year to be under 50 percent support." For his part, Strickland seemed more than pleased by the numbers.

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ND-House At Large

Red-State Dem's Ad Touts His Work With Bush (VIDEO)

Eric Kleefeld | September 27, 2010, 3:00PM

Ad from Rep. Earl Pomeroy (D-ND), "Difference"

Who would have thought that in the year 2010, a member of Congress would be running for re-election on the basis of how well he worked with George W. Bush -- and who would have imagined that the Congressman in question would be a Democrat?

"When George Bush proposed a Medicare prescription drug plan, Earl Pomeroy voted yes, putting seniors before party," the announcer says, then turning the tables on Pomeroy's Republican opponent: "Rick Berg would roll back prescription drug coverage."

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Fiscal Commission

Republicans On Obama Debt Commission Push For Corporate And Capital Gains Tax Cuts

Brian Beutler | September 27, 2010, 2:38PM

President Obama meets with the leaders of his bipartisan debt commission, Democrat Erskine Bowles, on left, and former Republican Sen. Alan Simpson, on right.

Republicans on President Obama's fiscal commission, which is tasked with coming up with ways to reduce the deficit, have privately argued in official meetings that the panel should recommend further corporate and capital gains tax cuts as part of its mandate. The panel has been charged with raising revenues and cutting spending, to bring the federal budget into greater balance. But if Republican members are successful, their advocacy would result in either an unbalanced report, dedicated wholly to spending and benefit cuts -- or to gridlock and, thus, no recommendations at all.

At a tax reform working group meeting last week, Republicans argued against every possible tax increase. According to one source familiar with the deliberations, Republicans were even opposed to eliminating loopholes, exemptions, credits and other so-called "tax expenditures" unless the associated revenue increase could be used to lower capital gains and corporate income rates.

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OH-SEN

Poll: GOPer Running Away With OH-SEN

Evan McMorris-Santoro | September 27, 2010, 2:26PM

Ohio Senate candidate Rob Portman (R)

A new poll of the race to replace retiring Sen. George Voinovich (R-OH) shows Republicans are looking pretty likely to retain the seat. The University of Cincinnati poll of likely voters shows GOP nominee Rob Portman with a huge lead over his Democratic opponent, Lee Fisher. The poll shows Portman leading 55-40.

The last University of Cincinnati poll of the race -- from May -- showed Fisher up 47-46.

Internals show the race skewing toward the Republican across the state, according to the Cincinnati Enquirer, a co-sponsor of the poll.

"Portman's lead in southwest Ohio, his home base, is astronomical -- he has 66 percent support to Fisher's 28 percent," the paper reports. "But in Fisher's backyard - northeast Ohio -- the race is nearly a dead heat -- 47 percent Fisher, 49 percent Portman."

Past polling suggests the lead in the new poll is no fluke. The TPM Poll Average shows Portman leading 49.3-39.2.

Trend lines show that Portman is in danger of running away with election as early voting begins next week:

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NC-02

Anderson Cooper Takes On Anti-Mosque GOP Candidate (VIDEO)

Eric Kleefeld | September 27, 2010, 1:06PM

Anderson Cooper and Congressional candidate Renee Ellmers (R-NC)

On Friday night, Anderson Cooper took on Renee Ellmers, a Republican House candidate in North Carolina who has now based her campaign on opposing the so-called "Ground Zero Mosque," the Muslim community center project all the way up north in New York City. And the interview sure was a sight to behold.

Ellmers is running against incumbent Democrat Bob Etheridge. Her ad declared: "After the Muslims conquered Jerusalem, and Cordoba, and Constantinople, they built victory mosques. And now, they want to build a mosque by Ground Zero. Where does Bob Etheridge stand? He won't say, won't speak out, won't take a stand." Ellmers herself then cut in: "The terrorists haven't won. And we should tell them in plain English, no, there will never be a mosque at Ground Zero."

For one thing, Cooper asked Ellmers about how her ad uses the terms "Muslim" and "terrorists" interchangeably. Ellmers actually tried to wiggle out of that: "Well, to be honest, I think that you could make that assumption, but, you know, that's -- that's not giving me the benefit of the doubt."

Cooper replied: "I mean, that's -- your words are very carefully selected."

"The words are carefully selected, but that is certainly not what I'm intending to say. I am not intending to say that all Muslims are terrorists," Ellmers replied. "Basically, what I am saying, sir, is that there were terrorists who attacked us. They were Islamic jihadists. And, as a result of that, we have seen the devastation on 9/11."

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NY-GOV

Lazio Withdraws From NY-GOV Race, Will Reportedly Get Judgeship Nomination

Jillian Rayfield | September 27, 2010, 12:28PM

NY gov. candidate Rick Lazio (R)

Rick Lazio announced that he is dropping out of the race for New York governor today, ending speculation that he might run on the Conservative Party line.

Lazio, who will reportedly be nominated for a judgeship in the Bronx tonight, said he is dropping out in a press conference today. In his remarks, he called his victorious primary opponent Carl Paladino "flawed," City Hall News reports.

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Bush Tax Cuts

Dem Leadership Exposes Rift On Middle Class Tax Cuts

Brian Beutler | September 27, 2010, 12:16PM

House Majority Whip James E. Clyburn (D-SC), House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), President Barack Obama, and House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-MD)

We should know as early as today (or possibly tomorrow) whether House Democrats will do as many predict and kick the fight over middle-class tax cuts past the midterm elections in November.

Many signs point to yes -- the Senate already punted, a number of House Democrats want at least a temporary extension of tax cuts for wealthy Americans, and all of that is reflected in a split within Democratic leadership over what the party should do.

That split was reflected this weekend when, within minutes of each other, two members of the Dems' leadership team -- DCCC chair Chris Van Hollen and Majority Leader Steny Hoyer -- gave opposing answers to a simple question: will Democrats hold this vote before the election.

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WV-SEN

Manchin: Repeal Part Of Health Care Reform

Eric Kleefeld | September 27, 2010, 11:43AM

West Virginia Governor Joe Manchin (D)

Gov. Joe Manchin (D-WV), the Democratic nominee in the hotly-contested special Senate election for the seat once held by the late Dem Sen. Robert Byrd, has now taken a serious move that distances himself from the national Democrats in this Republican-trending state, Real Clear Politics reports -- calling for a partial repeal of the health care reform law.

"I believe in health care reform. I don't believe in the way this bill was passed," Manchin said Sunday afternoon. "Why they overreached, I don't know."

Pressed on his support for repeal, Manchin clarified that he favored "repealing the things that are bad in that bill." He ticked off a list of reforms in the law that he supports and asserted there is broad agreement in both parties for many of them. "Can't you keep that as a good base?" he said, adding, "It's a great bill." He emphasized that he's not calling for wholesale repeal and just wants to roll back parts of it but said, "You do need to."

It's interesting to note that nearly all of the Republican ads against Manchin have focused on attacking him as being too closely tied to President Obama, with health care mentioned as a key issue. But now he's sending a message that no, he's not tied to Obama on health care.

Van Tran

CA Republican On Sanchez's 'Vietnamese' Comments: A 'Shame' (VIDEO)

Eric Lach | September 27, 2010, 11:36AM

Republican candidate for Congress Van Tran

California Assemblyman Van Tran (R), who is running against Rep. Loretta Sanchez (D) in California's 47th district, appeared on Univision yesterday, and addressed comments Sanchez made on the network recently that "the Vietnamese and the Republicans" are trying to take her seat.

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DE-SEN

Rasmussen Poll: Castle Scores Only 5 Points As Write-In For DE-SEN

Eric Kleefeld | September 27, 2010, 11:10AM

Rep. Mike Castle (R-DE)

Does Rep. Mike Castle (R-DE), who lost the GOP primary for Senate in a stunning upset two weeks ago to Christine O'Donnell, have a chance if he gets back into the general election as a write-in candidate? According to a new Rasmussen poll, the answer is no. Furthermore, it seems that he would more likely siphon votes away from Democrat Chris Coons, rather than hinder O'Donnell.

The numbers: Coons 49%, O'Donnell 40%, and Castle 5%. The survey of likely voters has a ±4.5% margin of error. In the previous Rasmussen poll from two weeks ago, just after O'Donnell won the primary, Coons led O'Donnell by 53%-42%.

From the pollster's analysis: "Rasmussen Reports did ask Castle supporters who they would vote for in a two-person race and virtually all said either Coons or not sure."

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CT-SEN

Rasmussen Poll: Blumenthal's Lead In CT-SEN Race Narrows To Five Points

Eric Kleefeld | September 27, 2010, 10:41AM

CT-SEN candidates Richard Blumenthal (D) and Linda McMahon (R)

The new Rasmussen poll of the Connecticut Senate race shows Democratic state Attorney General Richard Blumenthal's lead over Republican former World Wrestling Entertainment CEO Linda McMahon continuing to narrow.

[TPM SLIDESHOW: Bringing The Smackdown: Linda McMahon's Campaign For Senate, And Her Colorful Pro-Wrestling Past]

The numbers: Blumenthal 50%, McMahon 45%. The survey of likely voters has a ±4.5% margin of error. The previous Rasmussen poll from two and a half weeks ago put Blumenthal ahead by 53%-44%.

The TPM Poll Average gives Blumenthal a lead of 50.0%-44.2%.

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KY-SEN

Poll: Rand Paul Leads By Just Two In KY-SEN

Evan McMorris-Santoro | September 27, 2010, 10:31AM

Rand Paul (R)

The closely-watched race for Senate in Kentucky is now "a statistical dead heat," according to a new poll sponsored by one of the the state's largest papers. The Bluegrass Poll was conducted by automated phone call pollster SurveyUSA for the Louisville Courier-Journal last week and shows Republican nominee Rand Paul leading Democratic nominee Jack Conway 49-47.

The last Bluegrass Poll, conducted in late August showed Paul ahead 55-40. In the ensuing weeks, the Courier-Journal reports, Conway has built momentum among women and those wary of Paul's extreme conservative views.

"The poll shows that Conway, the state's attorney general, is now appealing to voters who say they are neutral on the tea party -- Paul's base of support," the paper reports. "And Conway is building a significant lead among women, who earlier were almost evenly split between the two candidates."

As the paper reports, Paul's miniscule lead in the new poll "is well within the poll's 4 percentage point margin of error," making the result basically a tie.

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MN-GOV

Star Tribune Poll: Dayton Leads Emmer By 9 Points In MN-GOV

Eric Kleefeld | September 27, 2010, 10:23AM

MN-GOV candidates Tom Emmer (R) and Mark Dayton (D)

The new Star Tribune poll of the Minnesota gubernatorial race gives Democratic former U.S. Sen. Mark Dayton a nine-point lead over Republican Tom Emmer.

The numbers: Dayton 39%, Emmer 30%, and Independence Party nominee Tom Horner 18%. The survey of likely voters has a ±4.1% margin of error. In the previous Star Tribune poll from late July, Dayton led Emmer and Horner by 40%-30%-13%. The TPM Poll Average gives Dayton a lead of 39.3%-35.7% over Emmer, plus 14.2% for Horner.

The poll also finds Dayton's favorable rating at 51%, with 38% unfavorable. By contrast, Emmer is further behind at 40%-41%, and Horner is at 38%-28%.

Bush Tax Cuts

Top Dem: 'I Doubt' House Will Hold Vote This Week On Bush Tax Cuts (VIDEO)

Christina Bellantoni | September 27, 2010, 10:09AM

House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-MD)

Rep. Chris Van Hollen may think a vote this week is still possible on extending the Bush tax cuts for the middle class, but the No. 2 Democrat in the House splashed icy cold water on the idea Sunday.

House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-MD) said on Fox News Sunday that he does not think a vote will happen before members adjourn for the midterm elections, even though Speaker Nancy Pelosi said Friday it still was possible. Hoyer blamed the Senate for opting to punt the vote to a lame-duck session, telling host Chris Wallace that it would be "a specious act" to hold a vote just for political optics before heading home.

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CA-SEN

Los Angeles Times Poll: Boxer Leads Fiorina By 8 Points

Eric Kleefeld | September 27, 2010, 9:55AM

Senator Barbara Boxer (D-CA)

The new Los Angeles Times/Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (D) poll of the California Senate race shows Dem Sen. Barbara Boxer with a strong lead over Republican nominee Carly Fiorina.

The numbers: Boxer 51%, Fiorina 43%. The survey of likely voters has a ±3.3% margin of error. In the previous LAT/GQR poll from back in late May, Boxer led Fiorina by 44%-38%.

The TPM Poll Average gives Boxer a lead of 47.5%-44.3%.

CA-GOV

Los Angeles Times Poll: Jerry Brown Leads Meg Whitman By 5 Points

Eric Kleefeld | September 27, 2010, 9:47AM

CA Gov candidate Jerry Brown (D)

Yet another poll, this one from the Los Angeles Times and Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (D), shows Democrat Jerry Brown with the lead in the California gubernatorial race against Republican Meg Whitman.

The numbers: Brown 49%, Whitman 44%. The survey of likely voters has a ±3.3% margin of error. The previous LAT/GQR survey from all the way back in late May put Brown ahead by 44%-38%. However, there have been a lot of polls since then showing Whitman ahead, after she put in so much of her own money that she has become the biggest self-financing candidate ever. As such, the TPM Poll Average shows Whitman still ahead, but only by a slim margin of 45.9%-44.8%.

However, other recent polls have also shown Brown pulling ahead or in a tied race.

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Alan Grayson

Grayson Ad Hits "Taliban Dan Webster" For Demanding Submissiveness From Women (VIDEO)

Brian Beutler | September 27, 2010, 9:40AM

Republican congressional candidate Daniel Webster

A tough new ad by Rep. Alan Grayson (D-FL) has his Republican opponent Daniel Webster on the defense just weeks before the election. The segment focuses on Webster's extremely conservative religious views, and concludes by calling him "Taliban Dan Webster."

"Religious fanatics try to take away our freedom: In Afghanistan, In Iran, and right here in Central Florida," the narrator begins.

Though reporters and partisans argue about dubbing a Congressional candidate a member of the Taliban, perhaps the most damning portion of the ad comes from multiple pieces of footage Grayson has unearthed of Webster referencing and endorsing parts of the bible that instruct women to be submissive to their husbands.

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WV-SEN

Could The Dems Lose Robert Byrd's Seat?

Eric Kleefeld | September 27, 2010, 8:32AM

West Virginia Governor Joe Manchin with the late Senator Robert Byrd (D-WV)

Another Democratic-held seat has emerged as a hotly-contested race this year: The West Virginia seat held by Dem Sen. Robert Byrd for over 50 years, until his death this past June created an opening in a state that has been trending to the GOP for the last decade.

Early on in this race, things looked especially good for Democrats. They'd recruited popular Democratic Gov. Joe Manchin to run for the seat, while the Republicans' strongest potential candidate, five-term Congresswoman Shelly Moore Capito, announced that she would not run. Instead, the Republicans ended up getting behind a long-time unsuccessful candidate, businessman John Raese. Manchin appointed a former aide, Carte Goodwin, to hold the seat but not run for a full term.

Raese previously ran for the Senate way back in 1984, losing by a narrow 52%-48% against Democrat Jay Rockefeller, in an open-seat race held in the middle of the Reagan landslide that year. He ran again in 2006 as Byrd's Republican challenger, spending $2.2 million of his own money on that race, and ultimately losing by a much heftier 64%-36% against a long-standing incumbent who was very much a state political institution.

But now things have started to get very close. The reason is simple: President Obama is highly unpopular in West Virginia.

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2010 elections

Tea Party Fakers? Dems Blamed For Co-Opting 'Tea Party' Label To Split Conservative Vote

Evan McMorris-Santoro | September 27, 2010, 8:22AM

At a tea party rally.

In many ways, 2010 will be the Year of the Tea Party. The angry conservative movement has bumped off a number of moderate and establishment Republicans in the primary season, packed huge rallies across the country and provided most of the best drama of the political year. But the success and prominence of the tea party movement has led to another trend: across the country, Democrats have been accused of helping get phony "Tea Party" candidates on the ballot in competitive races, in an attempt to split the vote between the Republican and fake "Tea Party" nominee so the Dem can cruise to victory.

It all made a lot of sense at the start. Back at the beginning of 2010, the tea party movement was showing real signs of splitting off into a separate political party. This was before the tea partiers set their sights on remaking the GOP with Senate nominees like Sharron Angle, Ken Buck and Christine O'Donnell, and, in turn, the GOP embraced the movement with both arms. A few clever Democratic activists, it appears, set about to take advantage of the schism between the GOP and tea party.

Evidence of the alleged plan has popped up in Florida, Michigan, New Jersey and Pennsylvania this year. Time will tell how successful it's been, but so far it's had very little effect.

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Ann Coulter

Ann Coulter At Homocon: 'Marriage Is Not A Civil Right. You're Not Black.'

Megan Carpentier | September 26, 2010, 3:13PM

Ann Coulter at CPAC 2010

Ann Coulter doesn't mince words. And even when speaking to a gay conservative organization, GOProud, at their inaugural Homocon party on Saturday night, she apparently wasn't willing to start.

After a series of jokes about conservative that sounded -- and were received -- more like a stand-up act then a political speech, Coulter told the assembled (and predominantly wealthy) conservative gay crowd why they should oppose same sex marriage, adding, "I should warn you: I've never failed to talk gays out of gay marriage."

And then she did.

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Bush Tax Cuts

Van Hollen: We May Well Take Up Tax Cuts Before The Midterm

Brian Beutler | September 26, 2010, 10:52AM

Rep. Chris Van Hollen (D-MD).

Rep. Chris Van Hollen (D-MD) Sunday came closer than any member of Democratic leadership thus far to suggesting that Democrats may indeed hold a vote on middle-class tax cuts before the November elections.

"We are absolutely going to get this done before the end of the year," Van Hollen said on Meet the Press. "We may well take it up before the midterms."

Van Hollen, who chairs the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, left his party plenty of wiggle room in the event that the House waits until after the election to hold the vote. But he walked further toward suggesting that the vote might come next week than did House Speaker Nancy Pelosi who on Friday told reporters, "We will retain the right to proceed as we choose," Pelosi told reporters at her weekly press conference."

As TPM first reported, if the vote on middle-income cuts goes forward next week, it will likely be done under suspension of the rules, which requires a two-thirds majority for passage.