The new CNN/Time poll of the Alaska Senate race shows that Tea Partier Joe Miller, the surprise Republican nominee, is still in the lead in this unusual election — but that incumbent Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski, who is running a write-in campaign after she lost the primary, does have a fighting chance of catching him.
The numbers: Miller 38%, Murkowski 36%, and Democratic nominee Scott McAdams 22%. The survey of likely voters has a ±3% margin of error. There is no prior CNN/Time poll of this race for direct comparison.
A caveat: The question for this poll explicitly included Murkowski’s write-in bid as a choice for voters. Another recent poll from Rasmussen did not include her name — as she would not be on the ballot — but left respondents able to voluntarily name her as their candidate. That poll gave Miller 42%, Murkowski 27% and McAdams 25%.
Is Rasmussen’s method superior, or does this poll better capture the mood of the race given the heavy publicity for Murkowski? The answer is simple: We really don’t know, and won’t until election day, because there hasn’t been a race like this one within living memory.
Eric Kleefeld
Eric Kleefeld joined TPM as an intern for the final months of the 2006 midterm elections, and then kept showing up for work. His other interests include guitars, old comic books and the politics of various English-speaking countries.
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