Yet another poll, this one from the Los Angeles Times and Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (D), shows Democrat Jerry Brown with the lead in the California gubernatorial race against Republican Meg Whitman.
The numbers: Brown 49%, Whitman 44%. The survey of likely voters has a ±3.3% margin of error. The previous LAT/GQR survey from all the way back in late May put Brown ahead by 44%-38%. However, there have been a lot of polls since then showing Whitman ahead, after she put in so much of her own money that she has become the biggest self-financing candidate ever. As such, the TPM Poll Average shows Whitman still ahead, but only by a slim margin of 45.9%-44.8%.
However, other recent polls have also shown Brown pulling ahead or in a tied race.
From the LAT’s analysis:
The tight contest for governor offered bragging rights to both candidates. Brown has withstood Whitman’s fusillade of negative advertising over the summer; the poll began only one week after Brown started airing his first television ads of the campaign. Whitman, for her part, had encroached upon the usual Democratic lead in California.
Still, Brown led among all three groups Whitman set out to conquer. Women were siding with him 51%-42%. Latinos backed him by a 20-point margin. Younger voters, typically a source of support for Democrats, were only narrowly in Brown’s corner, perhaps because most voters under 30 have little direct knowledge of him.
Eric Kleefeld
Eric Kleefeld joined TPM as an intern for the final months of the 2006 midterm elections, and then kept showing up for work. His other interests include guitars, old comic books and the politics of various English-speaking countries.
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