A new round of polls this morning confirms what most analysts have been saying for a couple weeks now: thanks to their advantage in voter enthusiasm, Republicans are poised to post big gains in the 2010 elections this November.
Last week the big news was the Gallup poll, which showed the GOP with its largest lead in the the history of the firm’s generic ballot polling. In that poll, the GOP led Democrats 51-41. The new polls out today confirm that Gallup’s numbers are not a fluke.
An ABC News/Washington Post survey released this morning shows Republicans up 13 points in the generic ballot question, leading Democrats 53-40 among likely voters. An NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll also out this morning shows Republicans ahead 49-40 among likely voters.
As has been the case in past polling, the parties are polling basically even when all adults are asked who they’d rather see in charge of Congress. In the NBC/WSJ poll, the parties were split at 43% support when all adults surveyed were asked who they’d rather see in control of Congress next year. But when likely voters were asked the same question, the GOP took the big nine-point lead. Polling from other firms this year has shown a similar result.
The stage, then, is set for the final push toward the elections that will likely involve Democrats doing their best to wake up and rally their base. With Republican supporters chomping at the bit at the prospect of heading to the voting booth to toss Democrats, President Obama and other Democratic leaders’ best shot at avoiding catastrophe is to boost the number of their base prepared to turn out on Election Day.
As you can see from the TPM Poll Average (which includes likely voters whenever possible), momentum does not favor that happening anytime soon. Republicans lead the average 49.7-40.9, and as the trendline shows, the GOP is on a serious upward tack:
Still, Democrats still have weeks to drive their message home and any political observer worth his or her salt will say that voters are just now starting to shake off the summer and start thinking about politics again. That means that there’s still room — and time — for the numbers to move in the Democrats’ favor. In order for that to happen though, Democrats and their supporters are going to have to start getting a lot more excited about 2010 than they have been so far.
Evan McMorris-Santoro
Evan McMorris-Santoro has covered politics for TPM since 2009. Before that, he was a reporter at National Journal’s Hotline covering election 2008. He started his career covering local politics at newspapers in TN and his native NC.
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