Eric Kleefeld September 24, 2010, 10:31 AM

The new Rasmussen poll of the Minnesota gubernatorial race shows Republican nominee Tom Emmer taking a narrow lead against Democrat Mark Dayton.

The numbers: Emmer 42%, Dayton 41%, and the Independence Party’s Tom Horner at 9%. The survey of likely voters has a ±4% margin of error. In the previous Rasmussen poll from mid-August, which was conducted right after Dayton’s narrow win in the Democratic primary, Dayton led Emmer by 45%-36%, with 10% for Horner.

The TPM Poll Average gives Dayton a very narrow lead with 39.5%, Emmer with 38.0%, and Horner at 12.6%.

The pollster’s analysis suggests that there is still quite a lot of fluidity to the race: “Fifty-four percent (54%) of Emmer supporters say they are already certain how they will vote in November. Fifty-nine percent (59%) of those who support Dayton are already certain of their vote, as are 53% of Horner voters.”

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