Jon Stewart

Stewart And Colbert Rebuke The Media At Rally: 'If We Amplify Everything, We Hear Nothing'

Jillian Rayfield | October 30, 2010, 7:02PM

Stephen Colbert and Jon Stewart

Jon Stewart's said at Saturday's rally that he didn't really care how it gets received by pundits and cable news - he's just happy so many people showed up.

"I know there are boundaries for a comedian pundit talky guy," he said in his closing remarks, "and I'm sure I'll find out tomorrow how I violated them." But really, he said, "I'm really happy you guys are here. Even if we're not sure why."

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Rally To Restore Sanity

Just How Big Was The Stewart-Colbert Rally?

Evan McMorris-Santoro | October 30, 2010, 6:13PM

No one seems to be sure exactly how many people packed the National Mall today for the Rally To Restore Sanity And/Or Fear, but there's one thing everyone can agree on: sanity and/or fear are extremely popular.

MTV's spokesperson told the Washington City Paper's Mike Madden that 250,000 people came out to see Jon Stewart and Stephen Colbert take the stage Saturday, while Viacom (the parent company of MTV and Comedy Central, home to Stewart's and Colbert's show) told the New York Times' Brian Stelter that "well over 200,000" were in attendance.

[TPM SLIDESHOW: Sanity Restored: Photos From The Stewart/Colbert Rally]

At the rally itself, Mythbusters hosts Jamie Hyneman and Adam Savage said they counted about 150,000.

But The Hill's Vicki Needham dug into the data and found anecdotal evidence to suggest a crowd size closer to Viacom's number than the from the Mythbusters dudes.

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Tim Profitt

Kentucky Stomper Charged With Fourth-Degree Assault

Ryan J. Reilly | October 30, 2010, 6:04PM

Former Ran Paul volunteer Tim Profitt

The Rand Paul supporter who was caught on camera stepping on the head of a MoveOn activist has been charged with fourth-degree assault, the Lexington Herald-Leader reports.

Timothy Mark Profitt, 53, is charged with misdemeanor fourth-degree assault after he stomped on Lauren Valle's head and neck. Profitt "intentionally placed his foot on the shoulder/head region on the victim," a criminal summons says. The newspaper reported that court records say Profitt will be arraigned Nov. 18. Such a charge carries a maximum penalty of 12 months in jail, a $500 fine, or a combination of both, the newspaper reported.

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Rally To Restore Sanity And/Or Fear

Signs Of Sanity: Rally Attendees Get Creative While Making Fun Of Anti-Obama Myths

Ryan J. Reilly | October 30, 2010, 5:18PM

Unlike Glenn Beck's rally, there was no ban on signs at Jon Stewart and Stephen Colbert's Rally to Restore Sanity and/or Fear. Attendees took full advantage, breaking out the creativity with signs poking fun at Tea Partiers, myths about President Obama, extremism in the political realm, Republicans and the optics of rally signs in general.

[TPM SLIDESHOW: Sanity Restored: Photos From The Stewart/Colbert Rally]

Mostly, sign makers went for the funny. Here were some of the best signs spotted by TPM reporters and readers at the rally:

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Andrew Breitbart

ABC News Backs Away From Breitbart

Brian Beutler | October 30, 2010, 3:05PM

After facing a barrage of criticism for inviting conservative Andrew Breitbart to participate in election night activities, ABC News is now trying to put some space between themselves and the controversial activist.

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Nazi Reenactor

After Joint Campaign Stop, Nazi Reenactor Hedges On Boehner For Speaker

Brian Beutler | October 30, 2010, 2:53PM

House Minority Leader John Boehner took on the conventional wisdom that it's bad politics to associate with Nazi reenactors by campaigning recently with Ohio congressional candidate Rich Iott. That's about the only public support Iott's received from the GOP since his SS scandal broke.

Returning the favor, Iott, who's running in Ohio's 9th congressional district, now won't say whether he'd support Boehner for Speaker.

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AK-SEN

DSCC Ad: 'Lisa Murkowski Has Gone Washington' (VIDEO)

Eric Kleefeld | October 30, 2010, 2:37PM

Ad from the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, "Turned Her Back"

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has a new ad in the Alaska Senate race attacking Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski as the GOPer tries to win re-election in a nearly unprecedented write-in campaign.

The ad casts Murkowski as a Washington insider who no longer represents the state: "Maybe it was the fancy cocktail parties. Or all those pretty monuments. Whatever the reason - Lisa Murkowski has gone Washington."

The announcer then attacks Murkowski for having voted for deficit-raising budgets in 2003 and 2005, and for supporting Social Security privatization -- and for voting for the TARP Wall Street bailout. TARP, of course, was actively supported by the Democratic leadership and then-Senator Barack Obama (D-IL), alongside then-President George W. Bush and the Republican leadership.

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Rally To Restore Sanity And/Or Fear

Cat Stevens Appearance At Sanity Rally Rankles Right Winger

Brian Beutler | October 30, 2010, 2:08PM

Cat Stevens

Conservative bete noir Yusuf Islam (a.k.a. Cat Stevens) made a guest appearance at the Comedy Central rally today, inspiring an instant backlash from at least one right winger, a group fond of accusing the musician of sympathizing with terrorists.

[TPM SLIDESHOW: Sanity Restored: Photos From The Stewart/Colbert Rally]

Islam was accused in 1989 of sympathizing with Ayatollah Khomeini's fatwa against Salman Rushdie, after he was quoted saying "In Islam there is a line between let's say freedom and the line which is then transgressed into immorality and irresponsibility and I think as far as this writer is concerned, unfortunately, he has been irresponsible with his freedom of speech. Salman Rushdie or indeed any writer who abuses the prophet, or indeed any prophet, under Islamic law, the sentence for that is actually death. It's got to be seen as a deterrent, so that other people should not commit the same mistake again."

Since then, he has strenuously insisted that he does not support the fatwa and never did, though he strongly criticizes Rushdie's novel The Satanic Verses.

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AK-SEN

Dem McAdams' Flyer: 'I'm Twice The Man Joe Miller Is (Literally)'

Eric Kleefeld | October 30, 2010, 1:59PM

Scott McAdams, Lisa Murkowski, and Joe Miller

Scott McAdams, the Democratic nominee in the three-way Alaska Senate race, has a new flyer that humorously refers to his weight.

"I'm Twice the Man Joe Miller is (literally)," the flyer says in its heading, and then adding: "And probably three or four Lisas."

The TPM Poll Average gives Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski the lead with 40.4% for her nearly unprecedented write-in campaign, GOP nominee Joe Miller 29.5%, and McAdams 23.1%.

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2010 elections

Marist Poll: GOPer Buck, Dem Hickenlooper Lead In Colorado Senate And Gov. Races

Eric Kleefeld | October 30, 2010, 1:14PM

Candidate for U.S. Senate Ken Buck (R-CO)

The new Marist poll of Colorado gives Republican Ken Buck a narrow lead in the Senate race against appointed Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet. Meanwhile, Democrat John Hickenlooper continues to lead American Constitution Party candidate Tom Tancredo in the gubernatorial race, aided by vote-splitting from the beleaguered spoiler Republican nominee Dan Maes.

In the Senate race: Buck 49%, Bennet 45%. In the previous Marist poll from a month ago, Buck led by a stronger margin of 50%-42%. The TPM Poll Average for the Senate race gives Buck 48.0%, Bennet 45.5%.

In the gubernatorial race: Hickenlooper 47%, Tancredo 42%, Maes 5%. In the previous Marist poll from a month ago, Hickenlooper had 48%, Tancredo 29%, and Maes 19%. The TPM Poll Average for the gubernatorial race gives Hickenlooper 47.1%, Tancredo 42.1%, and Maes 6.9%.

The survey of likely voters has a ±4% margin of error.

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Sarah Palin

Sarah Palin Calls Joe Miller A Lost Cause, Quotes Scopes Monkey Trial Attorney

Brian Beutler | October 30, 2010, 12:45PM

Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin

There are probably better ways to inspire confidence in a candidate's prospects when he's in free fall than to call him a lost cause. But that's exactly what Sarah Palin did to one of her favorite tea partiers last night.

"Joe Miller - do not give up. It's you against the machine. This is it. 'Lost causes' are the only ones worth fighting for,'" Palin tweeted, quoting famed Scopes Monkey Trial attorney Clarence Darrow.

It seems unlikely that Palin is aware that Darrow was a big wig at the American Civil Liberties Union given her penchant for scoffing at...civil liberties. And one wonders whether Palin knows that, in the Scopes trial, Darrow defended John Scopes, who violated Tennessee law by teaching evolution. But there you have it.

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PA-SEN

Polls: Toomey Leads Sestak In PA-SEN -- But By How Much?

Eric Kleefeld | October 30, 2010, 12:36PM

Pennsylvania Senate candidates Pat Toomey (R) and Joe Sestak (D)

Two new polls of the Pennsylvania Senate race both put Republican Pat Toomey ahead of Democrat Joe Sestak, but by very different margins, and with different levels of undecided voters.

The new Marist poll: Toomey 52%, Sestak 45%. The survey of likely voters has a ±5% margin of error. In the previous Marist poll from a month ago, Toomey led by 51%-42%.

In today's Muhlenberg daily tracking poll: Toomey 45%, Sestak 43%. In yesterday's tracking poll -- which overlaps this one by three days out of the four-day sample -- Toomey's lead was a stronger 47%-42%. The survey of likely voters has a ±4.5% margin of error.

The TPM Poll Average gives Toomey a lead of 48.0%-43.6%.

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Tom Ganley

Republican Candidate Threatens To Sue Democrats Over Charges Of Sexual Harassment

Brian Beutler | October 30, 2010, 11:00AM

OH-13 House candidate Tom Ganley (R)

Republican congressional candidate Tom Ganley is obliquely threatening to sue his opponent -- Rep. Betty Sutton of Ohio's 13th district -- and the rest of the Democratic Party after multiple women came forward to accuse him of sexual harassment.

I have reason to believe the vile lies against me have been carefully orchestrated by Betty Sutton, the Ohio Democratic Party, and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. I will be meeting with my attorneys this weekend to see if legal action can be filed for the Democrats' efforts to derail my campaign and ruin my reputation.

Before Ganley concocted that explanation for the rash of sex crimes he's been accused of, House Minority John Boehner put Ganley on the list of candidates he'd be campaigning with this weekend.

Rally To Restore Sanity And/Or Fear

Stewart And Colbert Rally To Restore Sanity And/Or Fear Today

Jillian Rayfield | October 30, 2010, 7:38AM

Stephen Colbert and Jon Stewart

In case you haven't heard, Jon Stewart and Stephen Colbert's "Rally To Restore Sanity And/Or Fear" is taking place today on the National Mall.

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Rally To Restore Sanity And/Or Fear

Political Advocacy Groups Rallying Around Rally To Restore Sanity

Jillian Rayfield | October 29, 2010, 7:03PM

'Daily Show' host Jon Stewart

Jon Stewart says Saturday's Rally To Restore Sanity And/Or Fear is about comedy, not politics, but outside advocacy groups are certainly taking advantage of the event to rally support for their own causes.

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Andrew Breitbart

Andrew Breitbart To Provide "Analysis" For ABC News On Election Night

Brian Beutler | October 29, 2010, 7:00PM

Andrew Breitbart

ABC News has confirmed that conservative agitprop artist Andrew Breitbart will join the ABC News team to provide "live analysis" of election returns on Tuesday night.

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WA-SEN

Washington Activist And Assault Victim Tells Her Tale To TPM

Evan McMorris-Santoro | October 29, 2010, 6:49PM

Christie Stordeur

Before there was Lauren Valle and the Kentucky Stomp, there was Christie Stordeur, Democratic party volunteer and Walla Walla, Washington assault victim.

On Oct. 15, Stordeur was at the Walla Walla County GOP headquarters protesting Republican Senate nominee Dino Rossi. A pro-Rossi activist who was attempting to take Stordeur's picture allegedly hit her -- hard enough to get him arrested for assault.

In a TPM exclusive, Stordeur tells her side of the story, and expresses anguish at yet another closely-watched political campaign devolving into out-and-out violence committed by an older man on a young, progressive woman.

Read more »

Tom Ganley

Second Woman Accuses Ohio GOPer Of Sexual Harassment

Eric Lach | October 29, 2010, 6:04PM

OH-13 House candidate Tom Ganley (R)

For the second time in a month, Republican congressional candidate Tom Ganley, running in Ohio's 13th district, has been accused of sexual harassment.

Read more »

FL-SEN

Crist Adviser: He Would Caucus With The Dems In The Senate

Eric Kleefeld | October 29, 2010, 5:58PM

Florida Gov. Charlie Crist

Everyone knows that Republican Marco Rubio is ahead in the polls for the Florida Senate race, helped in part by a split in the anti-GOP vote between independent (and ex-GOPer) Charlie Crist and Democratic nominee Kendrick Meek. Crist has often refused to say for certain which party he would caucus with if he were elected. But as the Wall Street Journal an adviser to Crist says that he would caucus with the Dems if he were to win the election:

That's a big "if." Mr. Crist is trailing Republican candidate Marco Rubio in most polls. But the declaration by Florida trial lawyer John Morgan sheds light on one of the many mysteries in the Bill Clinton-Charlie Crist-Kendrick Meek imbroglio.

"Crist is going to caucus with the Democrats," Mr. Morgan said. "I don't think there's any ifs, ands or buts about it. It would be, in a very tight year, almost like a Democratic pickup in a solid Republican state."

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AK-SEN

'Operation Alaska Chaos': Right-Wingers Pushed Flood Of AK-SEN Write-In Candidates

Jillian Rayfield | October 29, 2010, 5:55PM

Alaska Senate candidate Joe Miller (R)

The flood of write-in candidates in the Alaska Senate race was pushed by Big Government's Dan Riehl and the conservative group Conservatives 4 Palin in an attempt to hurt Sen. Lisa Murkowski's own write-in campaign and give Republican nominee (and tea party favorite) Joe Miller a boost.

Beginning on Riehl's Big Government blog and dubbed "Operation Alaska Chaos" by C4P, Miller supporters were encouraged to file as write-in candidates so Murkowski's name would be buried on the official list of candidates. It worked.

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KY-SEN

Kentucky Stomping Victim Lauren Valle Not Apologizing To Stomper (As He Asked)

Evan McMorris-Santoro | October 29, 2010, 5:37PM

The 23-year-old MoveOn activist stomped on video by a Rand Paul volunteer on Monday has not -- as the stomper requested -- offered an apology to the man who stepped on her head. But Lauren Valle has reached out to Tim Profitt in a long open letter that states, "Violence hurts everyone."

Outside the final Kentucky Senate debate between the Republican Paul and Democratic nominee Jack Conway, Valle was wrestled to the ground and stomped on by Profitt after she tried to confront Paul as part of a MoveOn stunt. In the aftermath, Profitt has been investigated by police for criminal assault and, in a move that surprised some, called on Valle to apologize to him for getting in the way of his foot, or something.

Today, Valle decided not to give Profitt what he wanted. But she did offer a long take on the nature of violent politics that has appeared more than a few times this year.

"Mr. Profitt, You have asked that I apologize to you," Valle wrote. "Perhaps this is not the apology that you are looking for, but I do have some things to say."

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NV-SEN

Angle Camp Bans Two TV Stations From Election Night Party -- For Asking Questions

Eric Kleefeld | October 29, 2010, 5:17PM

Nevada Senate candidate Sharron Angle (R)

Republican Sharron Angle's nasty relationship with the press is reaching yet another whole new level, the Associated Press reports: Her Nevada Senate campaign has now banned two local TV stations from her Election Night party. Their offense? Apparently, it was that they asked her questions without permission:

Journalists from the local CBS and NBC news affiliates surprised Angle at McCarran International Airport on Friday to ask her questions about national security and unemployment. Video footage shows the GOP Senate candidate telling the reporters she will answer questions once she is elected.

Hours later, Angle spokeswoman Ciara Matthews told the news stations they are no longer invited to the election night party.

The incident referred to here is outlined in this post, when Angle said she would answer questions on national security and diplomacy "when I'm the Senator" -- that is, after she is elected. During that same interview of sorts, Angle answered a question about the two wars the country is fighting: "You know, the two wars that we're in right now, is exactly what we're in."

The TPM Poll Average gives angle a lead of 49.7%-46.4% over Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid.

Sunday Shows

The Sunday Show Line-Ups

Eric Kleefeld | October 29, 2010, 5:02PM

Former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin (R)

Here are the line-ups for the Sunday talk shows this weekend:

• ABC, This Week: National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman John Cornyn (R-TX), Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee Chairman Robert Menendez (D-NJ).

• CBS, Face The Nation: Rep. Peter King (R-NY), Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R-MN), Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN), Gov. Ed Rendell (D-PA).

• CNN, State Of The Union: Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Steele, Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin (D-IL), former Sen. Bob Kerrey (D-NE), former Education Secrtary Bill Bennett.

• Fox News Sunday: Former Gov. Sarah Palin (R-AK), Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Chris Van Hollen (D-MD).

• NBC, Meet The Press: Democratic National Committee Chairman Tim Kaine, Republican Governors Association Chairman Haley Barbour (R-MS).

NV-SEN

Angle To Reporter: I'll Answer Questions 'When I'm The Senator' (VIDEO)

Eric Kleefeld | October 29, 2010, 4:42PM

Sharron Angle and KLAS-TV reporter Nathan Baca

Nathan Baca, the local CBS affiliate reporter in Las Vegas who has made a good career this year of chasing around Republican Senate candidate Sharron Angle and attempting in vain to get her to answer his questions, has just posted another gem.

As Baca's latest segment shows, he intercepted Angle at McCarran International Airport, and tried to ask her questions about national security and diplomacy, such as her calls for the United States to withdraw from the United Nations, and who would be our country's willing allies.

Angle answered: "I think when it comes to major policy issues, the people of Nevada are most concerned about our jobs, our homes and our economy."

"But if you want to be one of 100 U.S. Senators that are going to be deciding on war powers and on ratifying treaties, which is what a Senator has to do, you have to answer these questions."

"Well, certainly," said Angle. "And I'll answer those questions when I'm the Senator."

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NV-SEN

Angle-Backers' Flyer To Retirees: 'Your Lifespan' Depends On Voting Against Reid

Eric Kleefeld | October 29, 2010, 4:08PM

Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) and Sharron Angle (R)

Wow, the rhetoric among Republican Sharron Angle's supporters is getting really intense in the home stretch of the Nevada Senate race. As Jon Ralston reports, a group of Angle-backers put together a flyer and distributed it throughout the Sun City Summerlin retirement community -- apparently coming from a board member of the community association -- that resurrected the "death panels" smear to warn that a vote for Democrat Harry Reid could kill these elderly voters.

The message carries a disclaimer that it was not authorized by any candidate. And I should add that the overall sloppiness does make it seem like an independent, amateur job.

Key quote:

Your Lifespan
will depend on what you do on
November 2, 2010

Harry Reid voted for and pushed through the $1.1 trillion government-run healthcare takeover that has "Benefit Panels" for our seniors. These panels will decide if you get needed medical treatment, in part based on age, even if your doctor says it is medically necessary in order to save your life. If the panel decides no...that means your life will not be saved, just like in Canada, England, France, Denmark, etc. Do you want Harry Reid's government bureaucrats to make these life and death decisions for you and your family?

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WA-SEN

Poll: Murray Leads By 6 In WA-SEN Race

Marc Kilstein | October 29, 2010, 4:06PM

WA Sen. candidate Dino Rossi (R) and Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA)

On the heels of two recent Washington Senate polls that show a tightening contest, the University of Washington released their poll today, which finds Democratic incumbent Sen. Patty Murray leading Republican nominee Dino Rossi by six points, 51%-45%.

When the Washington Poll was conducted two weeks ago, Murray led by eight points, 50%-42%. An October 27 SurveyUSA poll had the two candidates tied, 47%-47%, while a Rasmussen survey from October 26 saw Rossi up one point, 48%-47%.

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NV-SEN

Reid Ad: Angle Is A 'Pathological' Liar (VIDEO)

Eric Kleefeld | October 29, 2010, 2:57PM

A TV ad from Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV), "Running"

Harry Reid has a new ad in the Nevada Senate race, taking on his Republican opponent Sharron Angle's pattern of dodging the press -- and going further, citing the Nevada press calling her a "pathological" liar.

The ad opens with a video clip of Angle walking quickly away from reporters. "She ran from reporters, and now she's running from the truth," the announcer says. "Lying about Harry Reid in ads called 'misleading' and 'false.' Angle is so dishonest, the press calls her 'pathological.'"

The ad then shows a video clip of Nevada political journalist Jon Ralston, apparently commenting on the Reid-Angle debate from two weeks ago: "Angle frequently twisted the truth -- which she's done this entire campaign."

Then the announcer comes back. "Harry Reid? Worked his way up, never forgot who he's fighting for. Creating thousands of jobs, and clean energy, tourism, mining.

"Harry Reid: fighting for us. Sharron Angle: pathological."

The TPM Poll Average gives Angle a lead of 49.7%-46.4%.

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AK-GOV

AK Gov. Parnell: 'Only God Knows' The Age Of The Earth (AUDIO)

Jillian Rayfield | October 29, 2010, 2:16PM

Alaska Governor Sean Parnell

At last night's Alaska gubernatorial debate, Gov. Sean Parnell (R) wouldn't respond directly to a questions about the age of the earth. "Only God knows," he said.

Parnell and Democrat Ethan Berkowitz were asked which number more accurately describes the age of the earth, 6000 years or 6 billion years. After Parnell's answer, Berkowitz said: "I'll go with 6 billion."

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KY-SEN

Is It Still A Race In KY-SEN? Polls Say No. Dems Say Yes, We Can

Evan McMorris-Santoro | October 29, 2010, 1:01PM

Kentucky Senate candidate Jack Conway (D)

Jack Conway is down, his campaign says, but he's not out yet. The Democratic nominee for Senate in Kentucky is facing a slew of new public polls showing him down by a significant margin to Republican Rand Paul, but his campaign tells me voters are just now starting to pay attention to the race that's been a top focus of national press for at least a month now. That puts Conway in a good position to pull off the upset win, his campaign says.

"I trust our private internal polls, which put us anywhere...between 2 and 7 points [down]," Conway spokesperson John Collins told me today. "Which is, I think, where we want to be: within striking distance."

Collins isn't the only Conway supporter who apparently thinks there's still a race in the Bluegrass State. Former President Bill Clinton will stump for Conway in Kentucky on Monday, just a day before voters make their choice.

Public polls make Clinton's push and team Conway's read a little tough to swallow -- but not impossible. New robopolls from SurveyUSA and Rasmussen as well as a new live telephone survey from a Kentucky cable channel show Paul with a healthy lead ranging from about eight to around 12 points. The last polls from the three, taken a few weeks ago, showed Paul with a lead from 2 to 11 points.

The TPM Poll Average shows Paul leading 49.5-42.5.

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PA-SEN

Rasmussen Poll: Toomey Leads By 4 Points In PA-SEN

Eric Kleefeld | October 29, 2010, 1:00PM

Pennsylvania Senate candidates Pat Toomey (R) and Joe Sestak (D)

The new Rasmussen poll of the Pennsylvania Senate race has Republican Pat Toomey maintaining a narrow lead against Democrat Joe Sestak.

The numbers: Toomey 50%, Sestak 46%. The survey of likely voters has a ±4% margin of error. In the previous Rasmussen poll from last week, Toomey led by 48%-44%.

Read more »

Sarah Palin

Palin Falsely Accuses Obama Administration Of Coddling Ahmadinejad With Birthday Wishes

Brian Beutler | October 29, 2010, 1:00PM

Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin

Sarah Palin is claiming that an unusual bid by the State Department to secure the release of American prisoners in Iran is the equivalent of President Obama coddling dictators. And it all happened on Twitter.

A bit of back story first: In July, 2009, three Americans were detained by Iranian forces near the northern border with Iraq and held on charges of espionage. One has since been released, but the other two -- Josh Fattal and Shane Bauer -- remain in custody and will face charges on November 6. The U.S. government calls the allegations ludicrous and has pushed for their release.

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AK-SEN

New Murkowski Ad Attacks Joe Miller For Detaining Journalist (VIDEO)

Jillian Rayfield | October 29, 2010, 12:43PM

A new ad from Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) attacks Republican Senate nominee Joe Miller for the incident at a town hall when his security team handcuffed and detained a journalist, and for Miller's comment that if East Germany could secure the border, so can the U.S.

The ad says: "Joe Miller's answer to freedom of the press? Arrest the journalist. Joe Miller's answer to illegal immigration? Use East Germany as an example. Exactly what kind of America does Joe Miller live in?"

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IL-SEN

Who Leads IL-SEN? Depends How Many Candidates Are Involved

Eric Lach | October 29, 2010, 12:27PM

Illinois Senate candidates Alexi Giannoulias (D) and Mark Kirk (R)

The Illinois Senate race has been close for months. Democrat Alexi Giannoulias and Republican Rep. Mark Kirk have attacked each other viciously over their respective scandals, attempting to gain advantage in a tight contest. So who is ahead? Well, it depends which polls you look at. Because while Giannoulias and Kirk are the headliners, two other candidates, the Green Party's LeAlan Jones and Libertarian Mike Labno, are each pulling in enough support to sway the results of this close race.

[TPM SLIDESHOW: Stranger Than Fiction? TPM Casts The 2010 Midterms Movie]

One note: support for third-party candidates often comes up much lower on Election Day itself than compared to the pre-election polls. In many cases, voters who were thinking of casting a protest vote ultimately pick one of the two major-party candidates. However, this effect is very hard to predict.

That said, let's break down the numbers:

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David Vitter

Vitter Refuses To Say Whether He Broke The Law In Prostitution Scandal

Brian Beutler | October 29, 2010, 11:18AM

Sen. David Vitter (R-LA) hearing testimony from oil executives.

At the final Louisiana Senate debate last night, incumbent David Vitter (R) dodged repeated questions about whether he broke the law by soliciting prostitutes in Washington, D.C. and Louisiana.

"[Y]ou can look back, you can continue to write stories in the media about it," Vitter told moderators. "That's your decision. It's a free country. I looked the voters of Louisiana in the eye. I spoke to them sincerely. I think they heard me and I think they understood me. And now I'm looking forward, I'm not looking back."

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Jon Stewart

The Daily Show Mocks Negative Campaign Ads: Larry Wilmore F*cks Chickens (VIDEO)

Jillian Rayfield | October 29, 2010, 11:13AM

On the Daily Show last night, Aasif Mandvi and Larry Wilmore showed up to help Jon Stewart debate negative campaign ads. Larry Wilmore was Team Negative, and, as he described it, "Aasif was supposed to be 'Team Positive,' but clearly my opponent couldn't even handle the simple assignment of picking out the right shirt. Aasif Mandvi: Can we trust him?"

Aasif countered: "Larry Wilmore fucks chickens. Larry Wilmore is a chicken fucker, and from what I understand, the sex is not always consensual."

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WI-SEN

Polls: Feingold Continues To Trail Johnson

Eric Kleefeld | October 29, 2010, 10:50AM

Senator Russ Feingold (D-WI) and Senate candidate Ron Johnson (R-WI)

Two new polls of the Wisconsin Senate race confirm that Republican businessman Ron Johnson leads three-term Democratic Sen. Russ Feingold. And though the Democrat has gained some ground, Feingold is still stuck in the mid-40s.

The new survey from Public Policy Polling (D): Johnson 53%, Feingold 44%. The survey of likely voters has a ±2.6% margin of error. In the previous poll from mid-September, Johnson led by 52%-41%.

And the We The People survey, a consortium of media interests in Wisconsin: Johnson 48%, Feingold 44%. The survey of likely voters has a ±5% margin of error. In the previous survey from early October, Johnson led by 49%-41%.

The TPM Poll Average gives Johnson a lead of 51.8%-44.6%.

Read more »

DE-SEN

Monmouth Poll: O'Donnell Closes Gap In DE-SEN, But Still Trails By Double-Digits

Eric Kleefeld | October 29, 2010, 10:21AM

Christine O'Donnell (R), and Chris Coons (D), candidates for Senate in Delaware.

The new Monmouth University poll of the Delaware Senate race has Democrat Chris Coons's lead over Republican activist Christine O'Donnell shrinking, but Coons is still ahead by ten points.

The numbers: Coons 51%, O'Donnell 41%. The survey of likely voters has a ±4% margin of error. In the previous Monmouth poll from just over two weeks ago, Coons led by a wider margin of 57%-38%.

[TPM SLIDESHOW - Christine O'Donnell: Anti-Masturbation Crusader. Witchcraft Dabbler. Republican Senate Nominee]

From the pollster's analysis: "While Coons still has the advantage, it has to be uncomfortable knowing that O'Donnell was able to shave 9 points off his lead in just two weeks. The interesting thing is that while her vote total has risen, the majority of Delaware voters still say she is unqualified for the post."

The TPM Poll Average gives Coons a lead of 55.2%-37.7%.

Read more »

FL-SEN

Kendrick Meek Explains It All: I Never, Ever Agreed To Drop Out (VIDEO)

Evan McMorris-Santoro | October 29, 2010, 10:14AM

Kendrick Meek did talk to Bill Clinton about dropping his Democratic bid to be the next Senator from Florida, a move that supporters of the plan say would have opened up an opportunity for independent Charlie Crist to catch Republican Marco Rubio's rising star before Election Day. But Meek insists he did not agree to drop out of the race, ever, as Clintonistas told Ben Smith at Politico and many, many other reporters yesterday.

That is the takeaway from Meek's round of TV appearances this morning, and it is the story as Meek is telling it. Team Clinton did not respond to my requests for comment on Meek's take last night.

Read more »

WA-SEN

SurveyUSA Poll: Dem Murray And GOPer Rossi Tied In WA-SEN Race

Marc Kilstein | October 29, 2010, 10:10AM

WA Sen. candidate Dino Rossi (R) and Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA)

A newly released SurveyUSA poll of the Washington Senate race finds Democratic incumbent Sen. Patty Murray and Republican nominee Dino Rossi deadlocked 47%-47%.

When SurveyUSA looked at this race on October 14, Murray was leading by three points, 50%-47%. Yesterday, a Rasmussen survey found Rossi on top of the race for the first time in more than two weeks of heavy polling.

The TPM Poll Average finds the Democrat ahead in the contest 48.8%-45.8%. The margin of error for the latest survey is ±3.8 percentage points.

For more on the race, check out TPMDC's full coverage here.

PA-SEN

Muhlenberg Tracking Poll: Toomey Leads By 5 Points In PA-SEN

Eric Kleefeld | October 29, 2010, 10:04AM

Pennsylvania Senate candidate Pat Toomey (R)

Today's Muhlenberg daily tracking poll of the Pennsylvania Senate race gives Republican Pat Toomey a five-point lead, 47%-42%, over Democrat Joe Sestak.

In yesterday's tracking poll -- which overlaps this one by three days out of the four-day sample -- Toomey had a slightly wider lead of 48%-40%. The survey of likely voters has a ±4% margin of error.

[TPM SLIDESHOW: Stranger Than Fiction? TPM Casts The 2010 Midterms Movie]

The TPM Poll Average gives Toomey a lead of 46.2%-43.1%.

Read more »

NV-SEN

Mason-Dixon Poll: Angle Leads Reid By 4 Points

Eric Kleefeld | October 29, 2010, 9:30AM

NV-SEN candidates Sharron Angle (R) and Harry Reid (D)

The new Mason-Dixon poll of the Nevada Senate race has Republican nominee Sharron Angle expanding her narrow lead against Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid.

The numbers: Angle 49%, Reid 45%. The survey of likely voters has a ±4% margin of error. In the previous poll from two weeks ago, Angle led by 48%-46%.

As the Las Vegas Review Journal, which commissioned the poll, reports on the internals: "The survey shows both Reid and Angle having most of their party bases, with the incumbent picking up 84 percent of Democrats and the GOP challenger 85 percent of Republicans. But Angle is winning the all-important independent voters by double digits, 55 percent to 38 percent, as Nevadans not aligned with either major political party swing her way as they settle on a choice."

The TPM Poll Average gives Angle a lead of 49.7%-46.4%.

Read more »

2010 elections

WI GOPer Apologizes For Comparing Gay Marriage To Bestiality Or Marrying A Table

Eric Kleefeld | October 29, 2010, 8:39AM

Republican nominee for Lt. Governor of Wisconsin Rebecca Kleefisch

Rebecca Kleefisch, the Republican nominee for lieutenant governor of Wisconsin, is now apologizing for remarks she made on Christian radio, in which she opposed domestic partner benefits for gay state employees by saying gay marriage could lead to a person marrying inanimate objects and dogs.

"We can't at this point afford to just be handing out money to anyone," Kleefisch had said, opposing the domestic partner benefits. "This is a slippery slope in addition to that -- at what point are we going to OK marrying inanimate objects? Can I marry this table, or this, you know, clock? Can we marry dogs? This is ridiculous."

She has now apologized. "My comments were meant to relay my concern with redefining marriage," Kleefisch said in the statement reported by the Associated Press. "I never intended to sound insensitive, and have the utmost respect for all people. I apologize for my poor choice of words."

Candidates for lieutenant governor of Wisconsin run together as a ticket with the nominee for governor in the general election, after having first run separate campaigns in their party primaries. The TPM Poll Average for the gubernatorial race has the Republican ticket of Scott Walker and Rebecca Kleefisch leading with 50.6%, and the Democratic ticket of Tom Barrett and Tom Nelson at 43.7%.

2010 elections

Will The GOP Be Riven By Power Struggles Post Election?

Brian Beutler | October 29, 2010, 8:37AM

House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-OH) with members of the GOP leadership

In the early days of the 111th Congress, many observers assumed that between repeated electoral defeats and an angry constituency, the existing guard of GOP leaders would not survive into the 112th -- that a power struggle would ensue and new top dogs would emerge. But in the days before the election, that doesn't appear to be the case. Over the course of the last two years, John Boehner has, against expectations, consolidated his power. And GOP sources say they expect a more or less ordinary transition if the Republicans win back the majority.

"The leadership races operate without the same pressure of external forces that normal campaigns and elections operate under," says a former GOP leadership aide. "Blog posts, articles, public profile with the media, etc., don't impact the folks voting in the conference on leadership the way they might in a normal election setting."

Translation: the right flank of the caucus, and conservative activists, might be clamoring for new blood, but this decision will be made transactionally, via secret ballot, and the current leadership team will likely survive.

Read more »

CO-GOV

Maes' Few Remaining Supporters Tell Him: 'Miracles Can Happen'

Eric Lach | October 29, 2010, 8:33AM

Dan Maes (R), candidate for Colorado governor

"Miracles can happen."

Those were the words of encouragement offered to Colorado Republican nominee Dan Maes by some of his few remaining supporters at a small event earlier this week, according to The Denver Post.

Read more »

FL-SEN

Democrat Meek Denies Agreeing To Clinton-Arranged Deal To Drop FL-SEN Bid And Endorse Charlie Crist

Evan McMorris-Santoro | October 28, 2010, 8:10PM

Marco Rubio, Charlie Crist, and Kendrick Meek at a Florida Senate debate

An explosive new story from Politico's Ben Smith has led to some serious sniping between the two men trailing Republican Marco Rubio in the Florida Senate race. Smith reports that Bill Clinton orchestrated a deal with Democratic nominee Kendrick Meek (the guy currently running a distant third to Rubio) to drop out of the race and endorse independent candidate Charlie Crist, the guy running second.

The deal could have given Crist a real shot at beating Rubio and, therefore, moderates and Democrats a chance at stopping Rubio's rapid rise in the GOP. Rubio has been a conservative darling of the GOP ever since he pushed Crist out of the Republican primary and into his current independent bid. Most say Rubio will be a major player on the Republican scene if, as polls currently suggest, he cruises to victory Tuesday.

All that could have been different if Clinton's deal had happened. But, as Smith reports it, after first warming to the idea of dropping out -- things went so far that a unity rally was planned for Oct. 26 -- Meek "lost his enthusiasm for the arrangement, spurred in part...by his wife's belief that he could still win the race."

Now comes the sniping. Crist confirms Smith's account of things. Meek says it's not true. That's led to a new war of words between the two men while Rubio continues his march toward certain victory.

Read more »

CT-SEN

Mr. McMahon Strikes Again: WWE To Hand Out Merchandise Near Polling Places

Eric Kleefeld | October 28, 2010, 5:51PM

CT Sen. candidate Linda McMahon (R) and WWE CEO Vince McMahon.

Republican Linda McMahon might be seriously down in the polls for the Connecticut Senate race, but it looks like she'll have some unconventional help on Election Day, The Day reports. Folks from World Wrestling Entertainment, the company she ran along with her husband and business partner Vince McMahon, will be handing out WWE merchandise near select polling places.

This comes after Secretary of State Susan Bysiewicz's (D) office backed off from an attempt to bar voters from wearing WWE paraphernalia to polling places, on the grounds that they would be construed as electioneering materials. Vince McMahon then filed a lawsuit over the matter, a judge sided with McMahon, and the matter was dropped.

As The Day reports, Vince McMahon is now mounting this new maneuver, and boasting in a statement: "I can't think of a better way for WWE fans to celebrate their constitutional rights and freedom of expression while voting than to proudly wear the WWE merchandise that Connecticut Secretary of State Susan Bysiewicz attempted to prohibit from the polls."

Read more »

OH-SEN

In Ohio, One Democrat Appears To Throw In The Towel

Evan McMorris-Santoro | October 28, 2010, 5:16PM

OH-SEN Democratic candidate Lee Fisher

Ohio is still a central battlefield for the 2010 election. Democrats in the state and elsewhere still think they have a real shot at keeping Gov. Ted Strickland (D) in office, and President Obama is heading back to the Buckeye State this weekend to help them do it. But for one Democrat, Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher, the fight appears to be over.

As the Cleveland Plain Dealer reported yesterday, Fisher -- the Democratic nominee for Senate -- decided to turn what little campaign cash he has left -- $100,000 -- over to the state Democratic Party for general GOTV efforts.

Two weeks ago, "Fisher's campaign for U.S. Senate was down to $308,631 in its bank account," the paper reported. "Sums like that don't last long and replenishing it is a challenge when a candidate lags in the polls."

Though Fisher has promised "he is not abandoning the campaign or giving up" against former Rep. Rob Portman (R), the Columbus Dispatch reports that the move by Fisher "essentially drained his campaign treasury."

Read more »

2012 elections

Gingrich Compares 'Secular Socialist' America To Communist Poland

Eric Kleefeld | October 28, 2010, 4:59PM

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-GA)

Former Speaker Newt Gingrich, a potential Republican presidential candidate, is ramping up his rhetorical theme of calling President Obama a "secular socialist" oppressing America. In fact, at a speech yesterday at the late Jerry Falwell's Liberty University, Gingrich compared modern-day America to communist Poland.

The remarks came during a discussion of Gingrich's documentary, "Nine Days that Changed the World," about Pope John Paul II's visit to his native Poland in 1979.

"The Soviet Polish dictatorship was repressive," Gingrich said, according to prepared remarks given to us by Gingrich's office. "Imagine a country where you could not pray in school -- the government was constantly tearing down crosses -- in classrooms and newsrooms it was easier to be an atheist than to be a Christian.

"Imagine a small secular political elite imposing its radical values on a massive majority of worshippers. You can see how strange Poland was -- or maybe you can see how relevant this story is to America today."

Read more »

WA-SEN

Rasmussen Poll: GOPer Rossi Up 1 On Murray In WA-SEN Race

Marc Kilstein | October 28, 2010, 4:24PM

WA Sen. candidate Dino Rossi (R) and Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA)

A newly released Rasmussen survey of the Washington Senate race finds Republican nominee Dino Rossi edging out Democratic incumbent Sen. Patty Murray 48%-47%.

When Rasmussen looked at this race on October 17, Murray was on top 49%-46%. Prior to today's survey, the Democrat had led seven straight polls dating back to October 11.

The TPM Poll Average still has Murray ahead in the contest 49.1%-45.9%. The margin of error for the latest survey is ±4.0 percentage points.

For more on the race, check out TPMDC's full coverage here.

OH-GOV

Polls: GOPer Kasich Holds Lead In OH-GOV Race

Marc Kilstein | October 28, 2010, 4:18PM

Governor Ted Strickland (D-OH) and Gubernatorial candidate John Kasich (R-OH)

Two newly released polls on the Ohio gubernatorial race find Republican former Rep. John Kasich on top of Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland. A Rasmussen survey has the Republican leading 48%-44%, while a SurveyUSA poll has the contest favoring Kasich 49%-44%, with Libertarian Ken Matesz earning 3% and Green Party candidate Dennis Spisak polling at 1%.

When Rasmussen looked at this race two weeks ago, Kasich was on top 48%-45%, while SurveyUSA's last poll of the race from mid-September found him leading with 52% versus Strickland's 40%, Spisak's 3%, and Matesz's 2%.

The margin of error for both surveys is ±4.0 percentage points.

For more on the race, check out TPMDC's full coverage here.

DE-SEN

Fairleigh Dickinson Poll: Chris Coons Leads O'Donnell By 21 Points In DE-SEN

Eric Kleefeld | October 28, 2010, 4:02PM

Chris Coons (D)

The new Fairleigh Dickinson poll of Delaware again finds that Democrat Chris Coons is cruising to a landslide victory over Republican activist Christine O'Donnell. And again, we find that the GOP would have probably won this thing if they had nominated the moderate Congressman Mike Castle.

The numbers: Coons 57%, O'Donnell 36%. In the previous Fairleigh Dickinson poll from early October, Coons led by 53%-36%.

As for a Castle-Coons matchup, the GOPer Castle leads by 54%-33%, up from a 50%-36% lead int he last poll. Then again, you have to wonder if Castle now has a crucial advantage in polls these days, bound to give a candidate a boost in this anti-establishment political environment: He's not actually running for office anymore.

The survey of likely voters has a ±3.5% margin of error.

Read more »

CO-SEN

Rasmussen Poll: GOPer Buck Up 4 In CO-SEN Race

Marc Kilstein | October 28, 2010, 3:03PM

Republican candidate for the U.S. Senate race in Colorado Ken Buck and Sen. Michael Bennet (D-CO)

A new Rasmussen poll of the Colorado Senate race finds Republican Ken Buck leading Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet 48%-44%.

When Rasmussen took a look at this race two weeks ago, Buck was ahead 47%-45%. Recent polls have suggested that the Republican's lead in the contest has been dwindling.

The TPM Poll Average has Buck on top 47.9%-45.4%. The margin of error for the latest survey is ±4.0 percentage points.

For more on the race, check out TPMDC's full coverage here.

NV-SEN

Angle Ad: 'They Promised Change -- Now, It's Our Turn' (VIDEO)

Eric Kleefeld | October 28, 2010, 2:36PM

From a Sharron Angle campaign ad, "Our Turn"

Republican Sharron Angle's new ad in the Nevada Senate race makes a simple pitch against Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid: Reid and the Democrats have wrecked the country since President Obama was elected, the ad says, and it's "our turn" for voters to get back at them.

"They promised change," the announcer says, as the screen shows Reid, President Obama and Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA). "But they delivered unprecedented spending, overwhelming debt, heartbreaking job loss, astounding foreclosures, skyrocketing bankruptcies.

"They promised change -- now, it's our turn."

Note the on-screen text, "Send Washington a message," basing a vote for Angle as being against the Democrats, rather than coming up with a genuine reason to vote in favor of Angle. Both of the candidates in this race are so unpopular with the voters, that they're basing their pitches more on being in opposition to each other. (Though this is even more true on Angle's side than it is for Reid, who has included some positive pitches mixed in with his anti-Angle spots.)

The TPM Poll Average gives Angle a lead of 49.6%-46.6%.

Read more »

FL-SEN

Quinnipiac Poll: Crist Only Down 7 In FL-SEN Race

Marc Kilstein | October 28, 2010, 2:31PM

FL Sen candidates Kendrick Meek (D), Charlie Crist (I), and Marco Rubio (R)

A new Quinnipiac poll of the Florida Senate race suggests independent Gov. Charlie Crist is not trailing Republican nominee Marco Rubio by as much as other recent polls would have you believe.

The three-way matchup finds Crist down seven points to Rubio, 42%-35%, with Democratic Congressman Kendrick Meek polling at 15%. When Quinnipiac last polled this contest on October 10, the Governor was down a more significant 14 points, 44%-30%, with Meek earning 22%.

Read more »

FL-GOV

New Polls Suggest Different Leaders In FL-GOV Race

Marc Kilstein | October 28, 2010, 1:56PM

Florida gubernatorial candidates Alex Sink (D) and Rick Scott (R)

Polling on the Florida gubernatorial race has been anything but consistent over the last few months. Democratic state Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink and Republican former hospital executive Rick Scott have each found themselves atop a handful of surveys, while neither has been able to maintain an outright advantage for an extended period of time. Today, two new polls on the race have been released, echoing this trend-- a Quinnipiac Poll finds Sink leading Scott 45%-41%, while a Rasmussen survey has the Republican ahead 48%-45%.

When Quinnipiac looked at this on October 10, Scott was found on top of the contest 45%-44%. Rasmussen's last look on October 18 gave him a more significant six-point advantage, 50%-44%.

Read more »

Norm Ornstein

What's In A Wave? How A Big GOP Midterm Win Really Looks

Brian Beutler | October 28, 2010, 1:34PM

House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-MD), Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA)

If there's an obsession afflicting Democrats and Republicans and pundits, it's a focus on the number 38. If the Democrats lose more than 38 net House seats, they lose the House. If they contain their losses to 38 or less, they keep it.

For almost everybody who covers or participates in politics, this is the number that will determine whether or not Democrats "win" or "lose" on Tuesday.

But the prevailing dynamics don't care about that benchmark, and, indeed, suggest that Democrats can lose the House and still do "well" given the speed of the wind in their face.

Read more »

NV-SEN

Reid To Maddow: Wear A Disguise Like Angle Does And Maybe You'll Score Interview (VIDEO)

Eric Kleefeld | October 28, 2010, 1:14PM

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid on MSNBC's Rachel Maddow Show

During an interview yesterday with Rachel Maddow, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) offered the liberal TV host an idea for how she could land an interview with his Republican opponent, the very inaccessible Sharron Angle: Dress up like Bill O'Reilly.

Maddow ended the interview on a joke question: "Do you have any suggestions for me on how I can get Sharron Angle to talk to me while I'm here in Vegas?"

"Maybe you should do what she does," said Reid. "Pretend you're somebody else."

Maddow and Reid then talked about the possibility of a disguise. "Maybe you could dress up as Bill O'Reilly," Reid said.

It's possible that Reid might have been referring to the Republican Angle campaign's recent use of decoys for Angle to dodge a crowd of reporters -- one of her more creative means to avoid answering questions from anyone other than conservative media venues that she can use to raise money.

The TPM Poll Average gives Angle a lead of 49.6%-46.6%.

Read more »

Stephen Colbert

Colbert To Tom Perriello: Is Running On The Democrats' Record 'A Cry For Help'? (VIDEO)

Jillian Rayfield | October 28, 2010, 12:53PM

Stephen Colbert talked to Rep. Tom Perriello (D-VA) last night about his tough re-election campaign, and called him "a rare breed" of Democrat because "you're actually campaigning on the Democrats' record. Why are you trying to hurt yourself like this? Is it a cry for help?"

Colbert had pointed out earlier in the show that most Democrats are running away from President Obama and the Democratic Party's record. "Last time I saw that many people run away from their party was when I called the cops on some high school kids," Colbert said.

Perriello, Colbert said, is one Democrat "who has the guts to stand by what the Democrats have achieved," but is having a tough time in the campaign as a result. So Colbert asked him why he's been "throwing around these esoteric concepts like education and jobs. Why not run on a universal message: Muslims freak me out."

Read more »

WV-SEN

Manchin Web Ads: John Raese Is An Imperial Storm Trooper (VIDEO)

Eric Kleefeld | October 28, 2010, 12:40PM

A new Web video from West Virginia Democratic Senate candidate Joe Manchin, "Lasers"

Democratic Senate candidate Joe Manchin has an amazing set of new Web videos in the West Virginia Senate race -- possibly the best Web-based campaign spots of the whole cycle. Remember that fun moment when Republican nominee John Raese said that the country needs "1,000 laser systems put in the sky, and we need it right now," and said it would only cost $20 billion? Well, now Manchin's campaign is connecting that to Raese's other positions -- and also to the Death Star and those white-armored storm troopers.

"We need 1,000 laser systems put int he sky, and we need it right now," Raese is shown saying in the video clip.

Then in comes that John Williams Darth Vader theme music, images of people in storm trooper costumes on parade, and laser beams from the sky wiping out a public school, clean drinking water and a Social Security card. The final image: John Raese's head on a storm trooper body, with laser beams raining down upon Earth in the background.

"John Raese's ideas aren't just crazy -- they're downright dangerous," the announcer says.

And there are more, too.

Read more »

Michael Bennet

Bennet Explains Why Obama Wouldn't Be Helpful On Campaign Trail (VIDEO)

Eric Lach | October 28, 2010, 12:25PM

Sen. Michael Bennet may be the incumbent in Colorado, but he's been running his campaign like an outsider. And though both Michelle Obama and Bill Clinton have recently stumped for him in the state, yesterday he explained to CNN why he doesn't think President Obama's presence would be helpful.

Read more »

KY-SEN

Democrats Doing Their Best To Politicize The Kentucky Stomp (VIDEO)

Evan McMorris-Santoro | October 28, 2010, 12:02PM

In a new web video just out from the Kentucky Democratic Party, the stomping of a MoveOn.org activist by a county coordinator for Republican Rand Paul's Senate campaign is turned into a metaphor (in no particular order) for ending federal breast cancer research, the elimination of mine safety laws, an end to the 1964 Civil Rights Act and a $2,000 boost in the Medicare deductible, among other things.

"Rand Paul: Stomping on you," the video reads. "Stomping on Kentucky."

It seems Democrats have decided to politicize the allegedly criminal assault of activist Lauren Valle.

Paul has, of course, made it fairly easy for Democrats to turn the jarring video of Valle's head getting stomped by Tim Profitt outside a Lexington debate Monday into their closing argument in the Senate race. Paul was slow to condemn the attack -- though he "dissociated" himself from Profitt soon after the event -- and has decided to keep the nearly $2,000 Profitt donated to his campaign.

Read more »

IL-SEN

Kirk Accuses Giannoulias Of 'Immaturity' At Final IL-SEN Debate (VIDEO)

Eric Lach | October 28, 2010, 11:36AM

IL Senate candidates Alexi Giannoulias (D) and Mark Kirk (R)

Things got testy, once again, at the final televised debate last night between Illinois Senate candidates Democrat Alexi Giannoulias and Republican Rep. Mark Kirk. The race has been mired in negative ads, accusations and scandals on both sides for months, and that atmosphere carried over into last night.

Read more »

NJ-03

GOPer Runyan Admits He Hasn't Read Health Care Bill Either

Eric Kleefeld | October 28, 2010, 11:21AM

NJ-03 House candidate Jon Runyan (R)

Jon Runyan, the former pro football player and now Republican candidate for the House against freshman Rep. John Adler (D-NJ), had a fun exchange at a debate Tuesday night. He says members of Congress should read all the bills they pass; he wants to fully repeal the health care reform bill; and, it turns out, he hasn't read the health care bill.

Adler shot this at his Republican opponent: "Respectfully Jon, I'm not sure you've ever read one bill in Congress ever, not one."

"Well I'm not in Congress," Runyan responded.

Runyan went on to explain further: "I've read several bills. If you're gonna pass a piece of legislation, you should be able to walk out on the street and hand it to the first person you see. They should be able to read and understand that."

Read more »

Lisa Murkowski

Alaska Supreme Court Rules Voters Can See Write-In List After All

Jillian Rayfield | October 28, 2010, 10:43AM

Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK)

The Alaska Supreme Court overturned a lower court ruling yesterday, paving the way for voters to see a list of write-in candidates when they go to the polls on Tuesday, including Sen. Lisa Murkowski.

Read more »

IL-SEN

Giannoulias Admits His Campaign Was Behind Flyer Touting Libertarian

Eric Lach | October 28, 2010, 10:16AM

IL-SEN candidate Alexi Giannoulias (D)

The Chicago Sun-Times reports that Illinois Democratic Senate nominee Alexi Giannoulias admitted yesterday that his campaign had a hand in a mailer sent to conservatives in downstate Illinois touting Libertarian Senate candidate Mike Labno as a "pro-life, pro-gun" alternative to Rep. Mark Kirk, the Republican nominee in the race.

Read more »

PA-SEN

Muhlenberg Tracking Poll: Toomey Leads By 8 Points For PA-SEN

Eric Kleefeld | October 28, 2010, 9:59AM

Pennsylvania Senate candidate Pat Toomey (R)

Today's Muhlenberg daily tracking poll of the Pennsylvania Senate race gives Republican Pat Toomey a solid lead over Democrat Joe Sestak.

The numbers: Toomey 48%, Sestak 40%. In yesterday's tracking poll -- which overlaps this one by three days out the four-day samples -- Toomey had a slightly narrower lead of 46%-41%

The survey of likely voters has a ±5% margin of error.

The TPM Poll Average gives Toomey a lead of 46.4%-43.1%.

Read more »

David Vitter

Melancon Ad: Vitter Used Taxpayers' Money To Pay For Prostitutes (VIDEO)

Brian Beutler | October 28, 2010, 9:47AM

Sen. David Vitter (R-LA)

No more beating around the bush. In a brutal new segment running on network and cable television in Louisiana through election day, Rep. Charlie Melancon makes a final, daring pitch to voters that Sen. David Vitter's sex and abuse scandals make him unfit to serve.

"Our tax dollars pay David Vitter's salary, and he used it for prostitutes," the ad's narrator says. "Our money paid for Vitter's serious sin. Phone calls to prostitutes during official votes and tax dollars to help defend an aide who violently abused his girlfriend. In return, we got a disgraced senator ranked among the least effective in Congress."

Melancon hasn't exactly been shy about discussing Vitter's past. It's an issue he's highlighted around the state, and in a two minute that ran on cable TV earlier this cycle. But his camp's long been aware that it has to be fresh on voters' minds if Melancon's going to win.

Read more »

AK-SEN

Joe Miller Ad: 'My Opponent Is Not A Witch,' But She's 'Conjured Up' Some 'Crazy Votes' (VIDEO)

Jillian Rayfield | October 28, 2010, 9:44AM

From a Miller campaign ad, "She-Who-Must-Not-Be-Named"

A new ad from Alaska Senate candidate Joe Miller (R) riffs on Christine O'Donnell's "I'm not a witch ad" to attack Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R): "My opponent is not a witch, but she sure has conjured up some pretty crazy votes in D.C."

Cause we all know how well O'Donnell's ad worked out for her.

Read more »

CA-GOV

Field Poll: Jerry Brown Leads Meg Whitman By 10 Points For CA-GOV

Eric Kleefeld | October 28, 2010, 9:37AM

California gubernatorial candidates Jerry Brown (D) and Meg Whitman (R)

The new Field Poll of the California gubernatorial race shows Democrat Jerry Brown gaining a strong lead against Republican Meg Whitman. As for Whitman, who has spent a record sum of her own money on the campaign, her unfavorable ratings have only gone up over time.

The numbers: Brown 49%, Whitman 39%. The survey of likely voters has a ±3.2% margin of error. In the previous Field Poll from a month ago, the two were tied at 41%-41%

From the pollster's analysis:

Since early 2010 Whitman has spent an unprecedented large amount of campaign advertising funds in TV, radio and direct mail. Also, there has been three well-publicized gubernatorial debates and numerous personal appearances throughout the state, along with extensive free media coverage. Despite all this, Whitman has been unable to increase the proportion of voters who view her favorably. In fact, over this same period the proportion of voters who hold a negative opinion of Whitman has grown - from 27% in March, to 42% in July, to 45% in mid-September, and to 51% in the current survey.

The TPM Poll Average gives Brown a lead of 48.9%-41.0%.

Read more »

WA-SEN

Washington Man Arrested For Allegedly Assaulting Anti-Rossi Protester

Evan McMorris-Santoro | October 28, 2010, 9:28AM

Christie Stordeur

A 72-year-old man was arrested two weeks ago for allegedly assaulting a 23-year-old activist protesting Dino Rossi's Republican campaign for Senate in Washington state, according to local reports.

The incident occurred outside GOP headquarters in Walla Walla County where the demonstrator, Christie Stordeur, was "one of five protesters standing about 40 feet from the entrance of the office," according to the Tri-City Herald.

Stordeur and the other protesters "were wearing bags over their heads and holding a sign that looked like a check." That's when Victor Phillips, according to a Sheriff's deputy on scene, walked over to Stordeur to "lift her bag off her head." When Stordeur "lifted her arm in defense," Phillips hit it "with 'force.'"

The Herald reports that the deputy on scene "immediately stepped between the two and arrested Phillips on a charge of investigation of assault."

Read more »

Jon Stewart

So What Do We Know About The Rally To Restore Sanity And/Or Fear? (VIDEOS)

Jillian Rayfield | October 28, 2010, 9:22AM

There's still a lot of mystery surrounding the Jon Stewart and Stephen Colbert rallies this weekend, now officially merged into one super-rally known as the "Rally To Restore Sanity And/Or Fear." Will it be political? Will it be like Glenn Beck's rally? Will there be musical acts? Can you drink on the Mall?

Looking at what Jon and Stephen have said about the rallies since September, here's some of what we know...

Read more »

Tea Party

5 Constitutional Amendments That Constitution-Loving Tea Partiers Would Change

Brian Beutler | October 28, 2010, 8:41AM

A Tea Party Rally in Washington DC.

Earlier this week, we looked at many of the various (and popular) long-existing laws that tea parters and their leaders think are actually unconstitutional. They run the gamut from Social Security to civil rights to abolition of the Department of Education and on and on.

But despite all the talk about "returning" to the Constitution, don't confuse tea partiers with Constitutional purists, who happen to read the document in a conservative way. True, about half of the changes they want to make to the social fabric result from a peculiar interpretation of the Constitution as it exists. The other half, though, would actually require Congress and the states to change it altogether.

Here's how tea party candidates and organizers would amend the Constitution.

Read more »

Jon Stewart

Obama To Jon Stewart: Maybe You Should've Had Your 'Rally To Restore Sanity' Two Years Ago (VIDEO)

Jillian Rayfield | October 28, 2010, 8:03AM

On The Daily Show last night, President Obama acknowledged to Jon Stewart that things have gotten a little crazy since he's taken office. "The one other thing that might have made a difference is if you held the 'Rally To Restore Sanity' two years ago," Obama said.

Read more »

KY-SEN

Rand Paul: On Second Thought, No I Won't Give That Stomper's Money Back

Evan McMorris-Santoro | October 27, 2010, 7:00PM

Rand Paul

Kentucky Republican Senate nominee Rand Paul has decided not to return the nearly $2,000 in campaign money he collected from Tim Profitt, the man who Paul recently forced out as Bourbon County coordinator of his Kentucky Senate campaign after he stepped on a MoveOn.org activist outside a debate Monday night.

Profitt has given Paul's Republican campaign $1,950, the Louisville Courier-Journal reports, money Paul's campaign told the paper it'll hang on to even as Profitt (and maybe other Paul volunteers) come under criminal investigation for their part in the Kentucky stomp.

Read more »

CA-GOV

Brown's New Ad Attacks Whitman: 'Let's Get Positive' (VIDEO)

Eric Kleefeld | October 27, 2010, 6:56PM

Meg Whitman (R), and Jerry Brown (D)

California Democratic gubernatorial nominee Jerry Brown is quickly leveraging a golden TV moment yesterday into a new ad attacking his Republican rival Meg Whitman -- for not being positive in her campaign.

Remember that fun moment yesterday, when Whitman got booed by an audience at a joint appearance with Brown and Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R), because she wouldn't agree to Matt Lauer's effort to get her and Brown to drop their negative ads? Well, now it's Brown's new ad.

The ad shows the exchange where Brown agreed to take down his negative ads if Whitman would do so as well. Then we get Whitman's waffling answer about how she wouldn't take down ads going after Brown's record -- and the made-for-an-ad moment of the audience booing her.

The on-screen text then says: "Tell Meg Whitman: Let's Get Positive."

The TPM Poll Average gives Brown a lead of 49.0%-41.3%.

Read more »

KY-SEN

CNN Poll: Rand Paul Leads By 7 Points In KY-SEN

Eric Kleefeld | October 27, 2010, 6:43PM

KY candidates for U.S Senate Jack Conway (D) and Rand Paul (R)

The new CNN poll of the Kentucky Senate race gives Republican Rand Paul a seven-point lead over Democrat Jack Conway among likely voters.

The numbers: Paul 50%, Conway 43%. The survey of likely voters has a ±3.5% margin of error.

The previous poll from early September did not have a comparable likely-voter sample, but had Paul and Conway tied 46%-46% among a wider filter of registered voters. In this latest poll, Paul leads 46%-44% among registered voters.

The TPM Poll Average gives Paul a lead of 48.9%-42.7%.

Read more »

WV-SEN

Manchin Ad: 'Both Democrats And Republicans Are Dead Wrong' (VIDEO)

Eric Kleefeld | October 27, 2010, 6:28PM

Joe Manchin campaign ad, "Fighting for West Virginia"

Democratic Gov. Joe Manchin has a new ad in the West Virginia Senate race, continuing his theme of distancing himself from national Democrats in this anti-Obama state. For this spot, Manchin attacks both the national Democrats and the Republicans, positioning himself against each of them.

"I'm as mad as you are with what's going on in Washington. Both Democrats and Republicans are dead wrong. They put their party first, their personal agenda second, and our country last. And they want you to believe I'm going to be a rubber stamp for that? Not a chance. That's not how we've made things better in West Virginia.

"Give me the chance to shake up Washington, just like I did here as governor. I'm Joe Manchin. I approve this message, because I've always put West Virginia first, and I always will."

Read more »

Fox News

Fox News Tries To Educate Obama On Racial Tolerance (VIDEO)

Evan McMorris-Santoro | October 27, 2010, 6:18PM

Fox News has taken it upon itself to teach the nation's first African American president a thing or two about racially-sensitive rhetoric.

It seems that in Rhode Island this week, President Obama made a slight addition to his now-ubiquitous "Republicans drove the economy into the ditch" metaphor. Here's how Fox News' own reporter on the ground recounted the moment:

He said Republicans had driven the economy into a ditch and then stood by and criticized while Democrats pulled it out. Now that progress has been made, he said, "we can't have special interests sitting shotgun. We gotta have middle class families up in front. We don't mind the Republicans joining us. They can come for the ride, but they gotta sit in back."

Offended yet? No? For shame, said a string of Fox pundits ranging from Stuart Varney to Monica Crowley over the past day or so. Obama, they say, was clearly referring to "sending Republicans to the back of the bus" (a word, it should be noted, Obama did not say), which as any Fox pundit knows, is an oblique reference to Rosa Parks and is therefore 100% offensive.

This is not the Obama of the 2008 race speech, nor the Obama who promised to improve the discourse in Washington, say Fox pundits. This is racial insensitivity at its worst.

Read more »

Tim Profitt

Kentucky Police Consider Charging More Paul Supporters In Stomping Case

Brian Beutler | October 27, 2010, 6:14PM

MoveOn volunteer Lauren Valle struggles with Rand Paul supporters in Kentucky.

You thought the Kentucky Stomping Story had been swallowed by the news cycle? Think again.

The identification of the Kentucky Stomper -- former Rand Paul volunteer Tim Profitt -- allowed Lexington police to issue a criminal summons in the case. He'll soon appear in district court and possibly face charges. But Lexington police say the investigation is still ongoing, and they may pursue the other Paul-supporters who participated in the assault.

"At this point, the investigation is still ongoing," public information officer Sherelle Roberts told ABC News. "We're looking into other individuals who may have been involved in the assault and could get charged."

Read more »

2010 elections

CNN Poll: Brown And Boxer Ahead In California

Eric Kleefeld | October 27, 2010, 6:02PM

California Attorney General and gubernatorial candidate Jerry Brown

The new CNN poll of California provides further corroboration that Democrats Jerry Brown and Barbara Boxer are on track in their respective gubernatorial and Senate races.

The gubernatorial numbers: Brown 51%, Republican Meg Whitman 44%. In the previous poll from a month ago, Brown led by 52%-43%. The TPM Poll Average has Brown ahead by 49.0%-41.3%.

The Senate numbers: Boxer 50%, Republican Carly Fiorina 45%. In the previous poll from a month ago, Boxer led by 52%-43%. The TPM Poll Average has Boxer ahead by 47.4%-43.4%.

The survey of likely voters has a ±3.5% margin of error.

Read more »

Judson Phillips

Tea Party Nation Doubles Down On Rhetoric Against Muslim Rep.

Eric Lach | October 27, 2010, 5:53PM

Rep. Keith Ellison (D-MN)

Tea Party Nation founder Judson Phillips is defending an email he wrote calling on supporters to help "retire" Rep. Keith Ellison (D-MN) because, among other reasons, "He is the only Muslim member of congress." In an email to supporters sent last night and in an interview with The Daily Caller, Phillips said he wouldn't apologize for having a "problem" with Islam.

Read more »

PA-SEN

CNN Poll: Toomey Leads By 4 Points In PA-SEN, Aided By Enthusiasm Gap

Eric Kleefeld | October 27, 2010, 5:18PM

Pennsylvania Senate candidates Pat Toomey (R) and Joe Sestak (D)

The new CNN poll of the Pennsylvania Senate race gives Republican Pat Toomey a narrow lead over Democrat Joe Sestak.

The numbers, among likely voters: Toomey 49%, Sestak 45%. The survey of likely voters has a ±3.5% margin of error. In the previous poll from a month ago, Toomey led by 49%-44%.

This poll also provides a further data point about how the enthusiasm gap is hurting Democrats. Among registered voters, a wider pool than the likely voters, Sestak actually leads by 47%-43%, up from a 45%-45% tie in the last poll.

The TPM Poll Average gives Toomey a lead of 46.1%-43.7%.

Read more »

NV-SEN

CNN Poll: Angle Grows Lead Over Reid

Eric Kleefeld | October 27, 2010, 4:59PM

NV-SEN candidates Sharron Angle (R) and Harry Reid (D)

The new CNN poll of the Nevada Senate races suggests that Republican Sharron Angle is expanding her narrow lead against Democratic Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid.

The numbers: Angle 49%, Reid 45%, and Tea Party candidate Scott Ashjian 2%. In a direct two-way race, Angle leads Reid by 51%-45%. The survey of likely voters has a ±3.5% margin of error.

In the previous CNN poll from three weeks ago, Angle was ahead by only two points, leading in the three-way race by a narrower 42%-41%-5%, and in the two-way race by 47%-45%.

The TPM Poll Average gives Angle a lead of 49.6%-46.6%.

Read more »

NV-SEN

Angle: Social Security, Welfare And Legal Divorce Are Nation's 'Wicked Ways' (AUDIO)

Eric Kleefeld | October 27, 2010, 4:41PM

Nevada Senate candidate Sharron Angle (R)

Oh boy. After months and months of insisting that she really doesn't oppose Social Security -- despite her past statements about wanting to phase it out -- now a tape has surfaced of Nevada Republican Senate nominee Sharron Angle decrying the program as an example of society's "wicked ways." And this was just two and a half weeks ago.

As Politico reports, an audio recording was uploaded to the Democratic National Committee's Accountability Project site, of Angle speaking at a church on October 10. During her speech, Angle offered a confession for America's sins -- going beyond just the standard religious conservative issues of abortion, but also the legislation of divorce, and various social welfare programs.

"And yet we're saying, 'Well, the government, we have all these programs now. Aid for Families with Dependent Children and Medicare and Social Security,'" said Angle. "That's fine, but isn't it we that should be thinking about this, isn't it us that should be caring in our community for those that the Lord has called us to? Didn't he say you honor him, you love him if you've cared for these the least among you? So we do have a lot of wicked ways that we can confess as a church, and I think that's what he's calling us to now."

Read more »

KY-SEN

Conservatives Tout New Video Of Kentucky Stomping (VIDEO)

Evan McMorris-Santoro | October 27, 2010, 4:19PM

Conservatives are pushing new video of Monday's stomping incident in Kentucky, which they say proves MoveOn.org's Lauren Valle was trying to "assault" Republican Senate nominee Rand Paul before Paul volunteers wrestled her to the ground and Paul's Bourbon County coordinator Tim Profitt stepped on her head.

"As the video clearly demonstrates, Valle was there to do more than simply 'hold a sign,'" a RedState blogger who posted the new video today wrote. "Paul supporters were not reacting to a mere dislike of her message."

The blogger writes that "none of that is any excuse, nor even mitigating circumstances, when it comes to Profitt stomping on Valle's head," but says the tape shows that any notion that Valle was "the victim of an angry mob who simply 'didn't like her message'" is "demonstrably false."

What do we learn from the new video? Not a lot. It depicts the chaotic clash of supporters outside the Senate debate in Lexington that preceded the stomping, just as all witness accounts and Valle's own recounting have said. Conservatives touting the video say it shows Valle "attempting to assault" Paul but it also appears she was getting pushed from behind.

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Jean Schmidt

Rep. Jean Schmidt To 6-Year-Olds: Abortion Is Killing

Jillian Rayfield | October 27, 2010, 4:13PM

Rep. Jean Schmidt (R-OH)

A Cincinnati Catholic school sent a letter of apology to parents after Rep. Jean Schmidt (R-OH) got a little off-topic in a speech given to elementary school students from first through eighth grade: she began talking about how abortion is killing a child in the womb.

"She defined abortion as the taking of a child's life in the mother's womb," the apology letter said. "She indicated that abortion involves the killing of a child before it is born. She was not graphic or any more detailed in this regard."

Read more »

WV-SEN

DSCC Ad: 'Would John Raese Represent West Virginia -- Or Florida?' (VIDEO)

Eric Kleefeld | October 27, 2010, 3:56PM

Ad from the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, "Florida"

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has a new ad in the West Virginia Senate race, casting Republican nominee John Raese as an out-of-touch businessman -- who they say really lives in Florida.

"Would John Raese represent West Virginia -- or Florida?" the announcer says. "The Raeses have a mansion in Palm Beach, and signed an official form calling Florida their home. His wife even registered to vote there.

"So maybe he should be Florida's Senator, because John Raese just doesn't get us. Opposing the minimum wage, and siding with China on steel. That might be okay with the CEOs at the club in Florida. But around here, it's just out of touch."

The TPM Poll Average gives Democratic Gov. Joe Manchin a narrow lead of 47.3%-46.4%.

Read more »

DE-SEN

Radio Station: O'Donnell Threatened To Sue Us For...Posting An Interview Online!

Eric Kleefeld | October 27, 2010, 2:19PM

Delaware Senate candidate Christine O'Donnell (R)

Delaware Senate candidate Christine O'Donnell has joined the ranks of Republicans who take a hard line with reporters when things go wrong -- in this case, a local radio station in Delaware says, her campaign threatened to sue them if they posted an interview online.

As WDEL reports/announces, O'Donnell appeared with talk radio host Rick Jensen, and took questions from Jensen and from callers, as well as listener-submitted questions that Jensen presented to her:

At the conclusion of the interview, a representative from the campaign who had been in the broadcast studio with O'Donnell asked that the video be turned over to the campaign and not released. He stated that the videotaping had not been approved by the O'Donnell campaign.

O'Donnell also told show host Rick Jensen that she would sue the radio station if the video was released.

WDEL routinely posts audio and video podcasts of interview segments on WDEL.com. O'Donnell's appearance on WDEL in September had also been recorded and posted on the web.

Read more »

CA-SEN

Carly Fiorina Leaving Hospital, Set To Return To Campaign Trail Tomorrow

Evan McMorris-Santoro | October 27, 2010, 1:46PM

US Senate candidate Carly Fiorina (R-CA)

Republican Carly Fiorina will return to the Senate campaign trail in California tomorrow after spending a day in the hospital being treated for an infection.

"Carly has been successfully treated for the infection she had as a result of reconstructive surgery following her victory over breast cancer," Fiorina chief of staff Deborah Bowker said in a statement. "This morning, her doctors gave her the good news that she will be released from the hospital today and can resume her busy campaign schedule tomorrow."

Read more »

Early Voting

Gallup Poll: Early Voting High Out West And Among Older Voters, But Little Partisan Implications

Marc Kilstein | October 27, 2010, 1:29PM

Voters waiting in line to vote early

While the midterm election date is set for Tuesday, many Americans have already cast their votes through absentee and early-voting procedures. New numbers from a USA Today/Gallup poll suggest early voting is highest among older Americans and people living out West. So which party does this poll suggest is faring better thus far?

Eh, Republicans by a bit, but the advantage isn't all that telling.

As the pollster puts it, "While interested observers have been poring over reports of early voting in an attempt to get a handle on the direction of the election, Gallup's current data do not show much of a difference in early voting by party affiliation." The numbers are as follows: 13% of self-identified Republicans have already voted, with 15% more planning to vote before election day, while 9% of Democrats have already voted, with 14% more planning to vote prior to Tuesday. The poll finds that 9% of independents have already voted and 19% more plan to vote between now and November 2nd.

While these numbers may not suggest a whole lot about how the election will play out, some numbers from the poll do stand out--as 27% of registered voters indicated they either have already voted or plan to before election day, 59% of that total comes from the West and 36% is from voters over 65 years old. In the East, only 6% of respondents stated they have or will make use of early voting procedures, and in the 18-29 age range, 16% of those polled stated they have or intend to vote early. Twenty-eight percent of the young age range said they do not plan to vote or don't know whether or not they will, while only 6% of respondents over 65 expressed the same sentiment.

The pollster concludes, "The finding that older voters have a higher propensity to vote early is not a new one, but confirms that many senior citizens, like residents in the West, are by this point in the election cycle essentially 'out of the game' as far as the campaigning is concerned. A disproportionately high number of younger registered voters volunteer that they will not end up voting this year, also confirming what is well-known in American politics -- that young voters are as a rule not highly involved in the election process."

The results are based on a question included in an October 21-24 survey among 1364 registered voters. Last week, we reported on early voting numbers provided by partisan voter registrations.

KY-SEN

Conway Attacks Paul On Civil Rights In New Ad (VIDEO)

Evan McMorris-Santoro | October 27, 2010, 1:22PM

KY Sen. candidates Rand Paul (R) and Jack Conway (D)

Months after Rand Paul met the nation with his epic gaffe/completely intentional/let's just pretend they never happened comments about the 1964 Civil Rights Act on the Rachel Maddow Show, Paul's Democratic opponent in the Kentucky Senate race is turning what he said into a campaign ad.

Jack Conway's latest TV ad -- coming in the midst of criticism over the stomping of a MoveOn.org activist by a former Paul county coordinator -- focuses on Conway's statement that "when I see a wrong, I try to right it."

The stomping incident is not directly mentioned in the ad, but Conway's camp has attempted to make political hay out of Paul's response to the controversy. Conway's campaign says Paul's initial response wasn't strong enough (in other words, when he saw a "wrong," he didn't "right it" immediately) and pressured Paul to say and do more in response. Paul has issued several statements on the incident, including one yesterday where his campaign said it was "extremely disappointed in, and condemns the actions of" the supporter who did the stomping.

The Maddow moment, however, is mentioned in this new ad, suggesting that the general election fight will end where it began -- with critics asking Paul to clarify just exactly what it is he thinks about Civil Rights.

Read more »

WV-SEN

Rasmussen Poll: Dem Manchin Retakes Lead In WV-SEN

Eric Kleefeld | October 27, 2010, 1:03PM

Joe Manchin (D)

In a piece of rare good news for the Democrats, the new Rasmussen poll of the West Virginia Senate race has Gov. Joe Manchin, a relatively conservative Dem, retaking the lead over Republican businessman John Raese in the special election to succeed the late Dem Sen. Robert Byrd.

The numbers: Manchin 49%, Raese 46%. The survey of likely voters has a ±4% margin of error. In the previous survey from last week, Raese enjoyed a healthy lead of 50%-43%. The last time Rasmussen had Manchin ahead was in September.

This race has pitted Manchin's widespread popularity as governor against President Obama's deep unpopularity in the state. Manchin has taken various steps to distance himself from the national Democrats -- most notably when he taped a commercial in which he took a rifle and shot a "cap and trade bill." He may have also gained some traction by casting Raese as a "crazy" right-wing extremist.

The TPM Poll Average gives Manchin a narrow lead of 47.3%-46.4%.

Read more »

NV-SEN

Reid Ad: 'Sharron Angle's Nevada' Is Really Scary (VIDEO)

Eric Kleefeld | October 27, 2010, 12:44PM

Ad from Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV), "Sharron Angle's Nevada"

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) has a new ad against his Republican opponent Sharron Angle, seeking to warn the state's voters against the consequences of Angle potentially winning the election.

"In Sharron Angle's Nevada, there are no background checks to catch sex offenders working with kids," a male announcer says, alternating sentences with a female announcer. "There's no Social Security for seniors. Insurance companies don't cover cancer tests. Prisoners get massages in a radical Scientology program. For Sharron Angle, it's not her job to fight for jobs. There'd be no City Center. Our jobs, outsourced to China."

"Sharron Angle's Nevada? No."

The TPM Poll Average gives Angle a lead of 49.3%-36.9%.

Read more »

2010 elections

The Hill: Republicans Set To Pick Up 50 Or More House Seats

Marc Kilstein | October 27, 2010, 12:03PM

The US Capitol Building

Over the last four weeks, The Hill and pollster Penn Schoen Berland have polled 42 toss-up congressional districts across the country, in an attempt to predict the magnitude of the upcoming election's congressional shakeup. The latest poll foresees a tough election day for the Democrats.

The survey's numbers suggest that Republicans are poised to win more than enough seats to take control away from the Democrats in the House next year. With the party needing to pick up 39 seats for majority control, The Hill's data suggests they are likely to take 50 or more.

Read more »

NV-SEN

DSCC Ad In Nevada: 'You Want To Send A Message To Washington -- But Sharron Angle?' (VIDEO)

Eric Kleefeld | October 27, 2010, 11:59AM

Ad from the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, "Two Candidates"

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has a new ad in the Nevada Senate race, making an odd sell in the effort to save Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid.

The ad briefly re-employs the motif from their previous spot, using the metaphor of the frustrated voter as a woman boxing against a punching bag. "It's frustrating," the announcer says. "You want to send a message to Washington -- but Sharron Angle?

"Sharron Angle says it's not a Senator's job to help create jobs. Sharron Angle says the unemployed are 'spoiled.' She wants to phase out Social Security and Medicare. Two candidates: Harry Reid will fight for Nevada jobs and defend Social Security and Medicare. Sharron Angle will cost us, and hurt our economy. Vote 'No' on Sharron Angle."

The TPM Poll Average gives Angle a lead of 49.3%-46.9%.

Read more »

David Vitter

New Radio Ad Highlights Vitter Vote To Protect Companies That Block Rape Lawsuits

Brian Beutler | October 27, 2010, 11:44AM

Senator David Vitter (R-LA)

A new Charlie Melancon radio ad running in Louisiana highlights Sen. David Vitter's (R-LA) opposition to legislation that would have barred the government from contracting with companies that prevent victims from taking cases of assault, discrimination, rape, and other forms of abuse to court.

The segment is narrated by Jennie Waldrop, a rape victim who confronted Vitter at a town hall last year over his vote on that.

"I asked him how could you support a law that denies victims like me the right to defend myself," she says in the ad. "He told me I didn't know what I was talking about ... and then he walked away. I never thought I'd get involved in politics, but David Vitter is a man unfit to be my Senator."

Read more »

2010 elections

SurveyUSA: Brown And Boxer Ahead In California

Eric Kleefeld | October 27, 2010, 11:40AM

Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA) and California Attorney General Jerry Brown

Yet another poll of California, this one from SurveyUSA, has Democrats Jerry Brown and Barbara Boxer continuing to lead in their respective gubernatorial and Senate races.

In the gubernatorial race, Brown leads Republican Meg Whitman by 46%-38%. In the previous poll from last week, Brown led by 47%-40%. The TPM Poll Average gives Brown a lead of 48.7%-40.8%.

In the Senate race, the incumbent Senator Boxer leads Republican Carly Fiorina by 45%-40%. In the previous poll from last week, Boxer had a narrower lead of 46%-44%. The TPM Poll Average has Boxer ahead by 47.2%-43.1%.

The survey of likely voters has a ±4.1% margin of error.

CA-GOV

Whitman Waffles: I'll Pull Negative Ads -- Except The Ones Attacking Jerry Brown's Positions (VIDEO)

Eric Kleefeld | October 27, 2010, 10:46AM

Meg Whitman (R), and Jerry Brown (D)

The candidates for Governor of California had a fun moment at a joint appearance yesterday, when they were cajoled by Matt Lauer, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R), and a very energetic audience to drop their negative ads. Republican nominee Meg Whitman agreed that she would indeed stop her ads attacking Democratic nominee Jerry Brown -- but only any ads attacking him personally, and not the ones hitting him on the issues.

At the state's annual Women's Conference, Lauer challenged the candidates to drop their negatives ads, with the audience enthusiastically applauding and even Schwarzenegger, who was on stage between the candidates, joining in on the clapping.

Brown briefly said there can be argument over what constitutes a negative ad, but ultimately agreed on the condition that it be done through a bilateral agreement: "Well, there's a spectrum. But I'll be glad. If Meg wants to do that, I'll be glad to do that. We could have a little discussion, and I"m sure we could work something out.

Whitman, who has faced intense attacks in the press and from her political opponents over a story involving her having hired an illegal immigrant housekeeper, gave a more equivocal answer, differentiating personal attacks from issue-based ones.

Read more »

KY-03

KY GOPer On Gender Discrimination: I'll Believe In It When I See It (VIDEO)

Evan McMorris-Santoro | October 27, 2010, 10:34AM

Todd Lally

In Kentucky, one Republican is standing firm against the concept of gender discrimination. Todd Lally, insurgent GOP nominee for Congress in the state's 3rd Congressional District, says he's never personally seen women be discriminated against -- and therefore, he says, gender discrimination may not exist at all.

Even in this so-called Year Of The Woman in politics, the vast majority of women casting ballots this year will find themselves choosing between two men to represent them in elected office. And in Kentucky, the choice includes one man who seems to base his entire knowledge of women's professional lives on the experience of his very successful wife and his own workplace observations.

The Democrat in the race, incumbent Rep. John Yarmuth, is making hay out of Tally's position, recently calling him out at a televised debate with facts and figures about women in Kentucky workplaces. Lally's response at the debate was essentially to shrug his shoulders and again say he doesn't know from gender discrimination.

Read more »

Jon Stewart

Jon Stewart's Video Take-Down Of McCain: He's Been Saying D.C.'s Broken Since 1989 (VIDEO)

Jillian Rayfield | October 27, 2010, 10:13AM

Jon Stewart talked last night about how this campaign season, fresh-faced candidates -- and John McCain -- are all talking about how "the system is broken" in Washington. Stewart imitated McCain: "Luckily I was there when we originally bought it. And I kept the receipt!"

"All those new people and the guy who's been there forever are right. We're gonna fix this place," Stewart said. Though, he added, this kind of talk "sounds awfully familiar coming from" McCain, so he showed a montage of McCain talking about the broken system, from 2010 all the way back to 1989.

Read more »

Tim Profitt

Kentucky Stomping Victim: 'Important That Stomper Be Held Accountable' (VIDEO)

Brian Beutler | October 27, 2010, 9:53AM

The MoveOn activist who was tackled and stomped on by Rand Paul supporters Monday night says she'll do whatever she can to see that her chief assailant, Tim Profitt, is held accountable to the fullest extent of the law.

"I plan to see the process through," Lauren Valle told Keith Olbermann last night. "I think that it`s very important that people be held responsible for this sort of behavior."

Yesterday, Valle told reporters she wasn't certain yet whether she'd pursue civil action against Profitt. However he has been summoned to court, where a judge will determine whether criminal charges are warranted in the case.

Read more »

PA-SEN

Polls: Toomey Still Ahead In PA-SEN Race

Eric Kleefeld | October 27, 2010, 9:45AM

Pennsylvania Senate candidates Pat Toomey (R) and Joe Sestak (D)

Two new polls out this morning for the Pennsylvania Senate race show Republican Pat Toomey with a lead over Democrat Joe Sestak, but with a significant number of undecideds remaining.

The new Franklin & Marshall poll gives Toomey 43% and Sestak 36%. The survey of likely voters has a ±4.4% margin of error. In the previous poll from a month ago, Toomey led by 46%-34%.

In today's Muhlenberg daily tracking poll, Toomey leads by 46%-41%. The survey of likely voters has a ±5% margin of error. In yesterday's tracking poll -- which overlaps this one by three days out the four-day samples -- Toomey led by a slightly wider 48%-40%.

The TPM Poll Average gives Toomey a lead of 45.4%-43.2%.

Read more »

KY-SEN

Kentucky Stomper Wants An Apology From Woman He Assaulted (VIDEO)

Ryan J. Reilly | October 27, 2010, 9:20AM

Former Ran Paul volunteer Tim Profitt

Tim Profitt -- the former Rand Paul volunteer who stomped on the head of a MoveOn activist -- told told local CBS station WKYT that he wants an apology from the woman he stomped and that she started the whole thing.

"I don't think it's that big of a deal," Profitt said. "I would like for her to apologize to me to be honest with you."

Read more »

CO-SEN

Polls Show Colorado Senate Race Tightening As Election Approaches

Eric Lach | October 27, 2010, 8:41AM

Republican candidate for the U.S. Senate race in Colorado Ken Buck and Sen. Michael Bennet (D-CO)

A number of recent polls of the Colorado Senate race all suggest the same thing: this is going to be a close one. Four separate pollsters have all shown Republican Ken Buck's lead shrinking -- or disappearing altogether.

Read more »

Joe Miller

Miller To Maddow On Gay Marriage: 'I Want To Be Straight With You' (VIDEO)

Jillian Rayfield | October 26, 2010, 10:44PM

Republican candidate for US Senate in Alaska Joe Miller

Joe Miller has been known for giving the press the runaround and, in his interview today with Rachel Maddow, he took that rather literally. The approximately five-minute interview took place as Miller was walking from a roof, down to his car, with Maddow peppering him with questions about same sex marriage as they walked.

Maddow asked him if he'd support a constitutional ban on same sex marriage. "That's up to the people," Miller said. "If you get a three quarters vote ratifying -- I'd vote for it."

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AK-SEN

Documents Show Joe Miller Admitted To Lying About Ethics Violations At AK Borough

Jillian Rayfield | October 26, 2010, 9:58PM

Alaska Senate candidate Joe Miller (R)

Newly released documents from Joe Miller's time at the Fairbanks North Star Borough show that in 2008, the Alaska senatorial candidate admitted that he lied about committing ethics violations during his time as a part-time borough attorney.

Read more »

CA-SEN

Fiorina Remains In Hospital Overnight, Future Campaign Schedule Unclear

Evan McMorris-Santoro | October 26, 2010, 9:26PM

US Senate candidate Carly Fiorina (R-CA)

Republican Carly Fiorina will remain overnight in the California hospital she entered this morning to treat an infection, her Senate campaign reported. The campaign did not offer a prediction of when (or if) Fiorina will rejoin the campaign trail in advance of Election Day, but it reported that her doctors are "taking every precaution to ensure she can return to her busy campaign schedule."

The statement goes on to say that Fiorina could be back on the trail "later this week."

Fiorina was admitted to an unnamed hospital this morning to treat an infection related to breast reconstruction surgery.

Read more »

KY-SEN

Kentucky Stomper: I Stomped Because Of Back Pain

Brian Beutler | October 26, 2010, 9:03PM

Tim Profitt of Paris, Ky., is joined by other demonstrators as he attends a rally in support of Republican U.S. Sen. Jim Bunning in Lexington, Ky., Tuesday, March 2, 2010. The rally also drew demonstrators opposed to Bunning's action in holding up a $10 billion spending bill because it would add to the deficit. (AP Photo/Ed Reinke)

The former Rand Paul volunteer who stomped on the head of a prone MoveOn activist tells a local CBS affiliate he would've never put his foot on the victim at all if it wasn't for his bad back.

According to WKYT, "[Tim] Profitt explained that he used his foot to try and keep her down because he can't bend over because of back problems. He also says police were alerted to watch her before Paul arrived because people in the crown recognized her as someone who may try and pull a stunt."

Video footage of the altercation clearly shows Lauren Valle subdued on the ground, held by multiple large men.

KY-SEN

Conway Spox: Will Rand Paul Apologize To Stomping Victim?

Brian Beutler | October 26, 2010, 6:00PM

Kentucky Senate candidates Jack Conway (D) and Rand Paul (R)

Jack Conway spokesman John Collins sent over a statement calling out Rand Paul, who has apparently not reached out to apologize to assault victim Lauren Valle.

"We are still waiting for Rand Paul to apologize to the victim of this attack," Collins says. "A boot stomp to the head of a woman is never appropriate,  Rand should apologize to her, stop blaming others, and identify the others involved in this thuggish behavior and
disassociate his campaign from them immediately."

Intentionally or not, the language in this statement is similar to the language Conway used to question Rand Paul's college antics, which included hazing a female friend by placing her in a stream and telling her pray to "Aqua Buddha"

CA-GOV

California Labor Ad: Make Sure To Vote -- Unlike Meg Whitman (VIDEO)

Eric Kleefeld | October 26, 2010, 5:31PM

Ad from the California Labor Federation, "Protect Yourself From A 'Meg Moment'"

The California Labor Federation has a funny new ad in the state's gubernatorial race, telling voters not to make the same mistake that Republican gubernatorial nominee Meg Whitman has habitually committed over the years: Not voting.

The ad uses audio of Whitman awkwardly answering reporters' questions in September 2009, about the fact that she didn't vote for years and years. "I should have. I should have, and I didn't," Whitman says. As the questions continue, she adds: "I should have voted, and I didn't."

Then the announcer comes in: "Okay. Maybe you didn't go 28 years without voting. But as Meg Whitman can tell you, missing out on your chance to vote can be, well, a little embarrassing."

The TPM Poll Average gives Democratic nominee Jerry Brown, the former governor and current state attorney general, a lead of 48.8%-41.2%.

RI-GOV

Independent Chafee's Ad Features Clip Of Obama Praising Him (VIDEO)

Eric Kleefeld | October 26, 2010, 4:46PM

President Obama and RI-GOV candidate Lincoln Chafee (I)

Finally, we have a candidate this election cycle who will proudly feature his ties to President Obama in one of his ads -- and he's not actually a Democrat!

Lincoln Chafee, the former Republican Senator and now independent candidate for governor of Rhode Island, has a new ad that uses old footage of President Obama vigorously praising him. And of course, this ad follows a dust-up over Obama's noted lack of support for the Democratic nominee in the race, state Treasurer Frank Caprio.

The ad shows video that is clearly labeled as being from March 1, 2008, in the run-up to the Rhode Island Democratic presidential primary in which Chafee had endorsed Obama. (Indeed, he had changed his registration from Republican to independent in 2007, and could vote in the Dem primary.) The ad shows what appears to be then-Senator Obama attacking Hillary Clinton's insistence that her vote to authorize the Iraq War was more about strengthening President George W. Bush's hand diplomatically.

"Real change isn't voting for George Bush's war in Iraq. I knew what it was, Lincoln Chafee knew what it was," Obama said, as the crowd applauded. "You were voting for war. That's why I opposed this war, Lincoln opposed this war, and if Lincoln Chafee could stand up--"

Read more »

CA-SEN

PPP Poll: Dems Increasing Leads In CA-SEN And CA-GOV Races

Marc Kilstein | October 26, 2010, 4:43PM

Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA) and California Attorney General Jerry Brown

On the heels of two newly released surveys of the California Senate and gubernatorial races, another set of numbers has come out, extending the narrative that Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer and state Attorney General Jerry Brown are pulling away in their respective races.

The poll, conducted by PPP, finds Boxer leading Republican former Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina in the state's Senate race 52%-43%, while Brown is found up on Republican former eBay CEO Meg Whitman 53%-42% in the state's gubernatorial race. When PPP last looked at these races on September 16, Boxer led 50%-42%, while Brown was up by a narrower 47%-42% advantage.

The TPM Poll Average finds Boxer on top of the Senate race 47.5%-43.4%. In the gubernatorial contest, the TPM Poll Average shows Brown leading Whitman 48.8%-41.2%.

The margin of error of the newest statewide survey is ±3.9 percentage points.

For more on the Senate race, check out TPMDC's full coverage here. For more on the gubernatorial race, click here.

Rand Paul

Lexington Police Serving Former Rand Paul Volunteer With Criminal Summons

Brian Beutler | October 26, 2010, 4:36PM

Tim Profitt of Paris, Ky., is joined by other demonstrators as he attends a rally in support of Republican U.S. Sen. Jim Bunning in Lexington, Ky., Tuesday, March 2, 2010. The rally also drew demonstrators opposed to Bunning's action in holding up a $10 billion spending bill because it would add to the deficit. (AP Photo/Ed Reinke)

The Lexington police have just announced that they've served Tim Profitt -- Rand Paul's former Bourbon County coordinator -- with a criminal summons for assaulting a MoveOn activist outside of the Kentucky Senate debate last night.

"Today, October 26, 2010, detectives identified the suspect, involved in the assault, as Tim Profitt," reads a statement from public information officer Sherelle Roberts. "Mr. Profitt is currently being served with a criminal summons ordering him to appear before a Fayette County District Court Judge."

The victim, Lauren Valle, claims that the attack -- during which she was pulled to the ground and stomped, resulting in a concussion -- was premeditated.

CA-SEN

Suffolk Poll: Boxer Up 9, Brown Up 8 In CA Races

Marc Kilstein | October 26, 2010, 4:29PM

Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA) and California Attorney General Jerry Brown

Suffolk University has released a new California statewide poll and the Democrats appear to be in control of both the Senate and gubernatorial races.

In the Senate contest, Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer is leading Republican former Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina 52%-43%, with Libertarian Gail Lightfoot earning 2%, American Independent candidate Edward Noonan polling at 1%, and Green Party candidate Duane Roberts pulling in 1% as well.

In the gubernatorial race, Democratic state Attorney General Jerry Brown is up on Republican former eBay CEO Meg Whitman 50%-42%, with a slew of third party candidates polling in the single digits (American Independent candidate Chelene Nightingale at 2%, while Green Party candidate Laura Wells, Libertarian Dale Ogden, and Peace and Freedom candidate Carlos Alvarez are all at 1%).

Read more »

FL-08

Susquehanna (R) Poll: Alan Grayson Trails By Seven Points

Eric Kleefeld | October 26, 2010, 3:55PM

Rep. Alan Grayson (D-FL)

A new Susquehanna (R) poll, commissioned by the conservative Florida news site Sunshine State News, has first-term Democratic Rep. Alan Grayson trailing his Republican opponent, former state Sen. Dan Webster.

The numbers: Webster 48%, Grayson 41%, Tea Party candidate Peg Dunmire 4%, and independent George Metcalfe 1%. The survey of likely voters has a ±3.46% margin of error. In the previous poll from a month ago, Webster had 43%, Grayson 36%, Dunmire 6%, and Metcalfe 3%.

Read more »

KY-SEN

Kentucky Stomping Victim Says Assailants Recognized Her, Premeditated Attack

Brian Beutler | October 26, 2010, 3:50PM

KY-SEN candidate Rand Paul (R)

The woman who was dragged to the ground and stomped by Rand Paul supporters outside of the Kentucky Senate debate last says her assailants recognized her as a regular anti-Paul protester and premeditated their attack.

"The Rand Paul campaign knows me and they have expressed their distaste for my work before," Lauren Valle, 23, told TPM and two other reporters on a conference call this afternoon.

According to Valle, several men surrounded her before Paul arrived at the event in Lexington last night.

"They surrounded me," she said. "There were about five of them, they started motioning to each other, and they got behind me."

Valle says her partner, whom she identified as Alex, overheard the men threaten, "we're here to do crowd control and we might have to take someone out."

Read more »

Rand Paul

Kentucky Stomper Identified As Paul's (Now Former) Bourbon County Coordinator

Brian Beutler | October 26, 2010, 3:29PM

The Rand Paul campaign has just severed ties with their Bourbon County coordinator -- a man by the name of Tim Profitt -- who has identified himself as the supporter who stomped on the head and neck of a MoveOn activist outside of the Senate debate in Lexington, KY last night, according to Fox News.

Profitt apologized for the scuffle to the Associated Press this afternoon, and apparently told them that the camera angle made the incident appear worse than it really was.

Read more »

AK-SEN

Murkowski Ad: 'A Vote For Scott McAdams Is Definitely A Vote For Joe Miller' (VIDEO)

Eric Kleefeld | October 26, 2010, 2:56PM

Alaska Senate candidates Scott McAdams (D) and Lisa Murkowski (R)

Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK), who is running as a write-in candidate after she lost her Republican primary to Tea Party-backed Joe Miller, has a new attack ad taking on her other opponent, Democratic Sitka Mayor Scott McAdams.

The ad shows various Sitka residents, including a former mayor, criticizing McAdams and declaring that the town is "Lisa Murkowski territory."

But one line is also a clear pitch to Democratic-leaning voters, casting support for McAdams as a wasted vote: "A vote for Scott McAdams is definitely a vote for Joe Miller." Another voter casts Miller as being way out on the right, McAdams way out on the left, and Murkowski representing everyone from the middle.

The TPM Poll Average gives Murkowski 36.7%, Miller 36.0%, and McAdams 25.5%.

Read more »

Rand Paul

Paul Condemns Kentucky Attack, Suggests He Knows Stomper's Identity

Brian Beutler | October 26, 2010, 2:18PM

Kentucky Senate Candidate Rand Paul (R)

Rand Paul's campaign has officially condemned his supporters for attacking a MoveOn protester outside of the Kentucky Senate debate last night in Lexington. Interestingly, though, his statement suggests that he knows who perpetrated the attack -- information which the Lexington police say they're still looking for.

"The Paul for Senate campaign is extremely disappointed in, and condemns the actions of a supporter last night outside the KET debate," the statement reads. "Whatever the perceived provocation, any level of aggression or violence is deplorable, and will not be tolerated by our campaign. The Paul campaign has disassociated itself from the volunteer who took part in this incident, and once again urges all activists -- on both sides -- to remember that their political passions should never manifest themselves in physical altercations of any kind."

Emphasis ours. About an hour ago, the Lexington police department's public information officer told me that developments in the case should be forthcoming, but that they still hadn't identified the men seen on the tape.

NV-SEN

Rasmussen Poll: Angle Leads Harry Reid By Four Points

Eric Kleefeld | October 26, 2010, 2:17PM

NV-SEN candidates Sharron Angle (R) and Harry Reid (D)

The new Rasmussen poll of the Nevada Senate race has Republican Sharron Angle leading Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid by four points.

The numbers: Angle 49%, Reid 45%. The survey of likely voters has a ±4% margin of error. In the previous Rasmussen poll from last week, Angle led by 50%-47%.

The TPM Poll Average now has Angle leading by 49.3%-46.9%.

Read more »

PA-SEN

Reuters/Ipsos Poll: Toomey And Sestak Tied In PA-SEN

Eric Kleefeld | October 26, 2010, 2:04PM

Pennsylvania Senate candidates Pat Toomey (R) and Joe Sestak (D)

The new Reuters/Ipsos poll of the Pennsylvania Senate race shows a tie between Republican Pat Toomey and Democrat Joe Sestak, the latter of whom has shown strong momentum at closing the gap in some recent polls.

The poll has Toomey and Sestak at 46%-46%. The survey of likely voters has a ±4.9% margin of error. In the previous Reuters/Ipsos poll from all the way back in late August, Toomey led by 47%-37%.

The TPM Poll Average gives Toomey a narrowing lead of just 45.9%-45.1%.

Read more »

CA-SEN

Carly Fiorina Hospitalized, CA-SEN Campaigning Curtailed

Evan McMorris-Santoro | October 26, 2010, 1:42PM

CA Senate candidate Carly Fiorina

Carly Fiorina, the Republican nominee for Senate in California and a well-known breast cancer survivor, was admitted to the hospital this morning to treat complications related to breast reconstruction surgery.

According to a statement released by her campaign, Fiorina "came down with an infection," and "as a result, she was admitted to the hospital to receive antibiotics."

The full extent of the hospitalization's effect on the closely-watched Senate race is unknown. "This will impact her campaign schedule today," the campaign said in a statement, adding that Fiorina "is upbeat and her doctors expect her to make a quick and full recovery and be back out on the campaign trail soon."

Fiorina's opponent, Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) did not offer any immediate comment on Fiorina's announcement.

Read more »

NV-SEN

Angle Campaign To Base: Reid Wants To Steal The Election! Now Please Donate $80,000!

Eric Kleefeld | October 26, 2010, 1:26PM

Nevada GOP Senate Candidate Sharron Angle

Sharron Angle's campaign is getting on the Republican bandwagon of warning the base about the supposed threat of voter fraud from the Democrats -- and they're seamlessly spinning it into an appeal to their fundraising base.

As Jon Ralston reports, Angle campaign attorney Cleta Mitchell has sent out a fundraising letter, saying that Harry Reid intends to steal the election, and she must ask for $80,000 in order to fight it. They key quote:

Read more »

Rand Paul

Kentucky Attack Victim Suffers Concussion, Police Hope To Identify Suspects Today

Brian Beutler | October 26, 2010, 1:15PM

Kentucky Senate Candidate Rand Paul (R)

Another update for you on the situation developing in Lexington, KY, where a MoveOn supporter was attacked and stomped on by Rand Paul supporters

Sherelle Roberts, a public information officer for the Lexington division of police tells TPM that investigators have made no arrests and filed no charges in the case. But because the incident was caught on camera, officers are optimistic that a breakthrough is imminent.

"I think we're probably going to come up with something later today," Roberts said, adding that tips have been coming in literally from around the country about who the suspects in the attack might be. "Because it was captured on video, we have a good idea what happened [and] at this point there doesn't seem to be anything to justify how this incident unfolded."

Read more »

VA-05

Obama To Stump For Liberal Star Perriello In VA-05

Evan McMorris-Santoro | October 26, 2010, 12:46PM

President Obama and Rep. Tom Perriello (D-VA)

President Obama will lend a helping hand to an embattled star of the progressive movement in the House, TPM has learned. On Friday, Obama will stump for Rep. Tom Perriello, the first-term Democrat from Virginia's 5th Congressional district who's facing tough competition from Republicans eager to take back his Charlottesville-area seat.

A Democratic source speaking on background called the Obama visit "big" and said the VA-05 race is "still close."

The TPM Poll Average shows Hurt leading the race with 47.6% of the vote and Perriello running a close second with 43.5% support. Third-party conservative candidate Jeffrey Clark draws 2.7% support.

Read more »

WI-SEN

Rasmussen Poll: GOPer Johnson Leads By 7 Points Against Russ Feingold

Eric Kleefeld | October 26, 2010, 12:41PM

Senator Russ Feingold (D-WI) and Senate candidate Ron Johnson (R-WI)

The new Rasmussen poll of the Wisconsin Senate race shows Republican businessman Ron Johnson continuing to lead Democratic Sen. Russ Feingold.

The numbers: Johnson 53%, Feingold 46%. The survey of likely voters has a ±4% margin of error. In the previous Rasmussen poll from two weeks ago, Johnson led by a similar margin of 52%-45%.

This particular poll would seem to suggest that Johnson's recent gaffes -- his multiple admissions that he doesn't actually have any detailed policy proposals, only a general conservative philosophy -- have not made changed the race very much.

The TPM Poll Average gives Johnson 52.3%, Feingold 44.9%.

Read more »

CO-SEN

Ken Buck: 'I Disagree Strongly With The Concept Of Separation Of Church And State' (VIDEO)

Eric Lach | October 26, 2010, 12:34PM

Ken Buck

Colorado Republican Senate nominee Ken Buck told a crowd at a forum in November 2009 that he strongly disagrees with the concept of separation of church and state, and that he was concerned that "we seem to be walking away from culture." Then he repeated a debunked rumor about the Obama White House's relationship with Christmas trees.

Read more »

FL-GOV

Dem Alex Sink Caught Cheating In FL-GOV Debate (VIDEO)

Evan McMorris-Santoro | October 26, 2010, 12:24PM

Chief Financial Officer of Florida Alex Sink

The Democratic gubernatorial nominee in Florida, Alex Sink, is facing some embarrassing questions today after a camera caught her breaking the rules in last night's televised debate with Republican Rick Scott. Sink, Florida's Chief Financial Officer, fired a campaign staffer after he tried to slip her a note during a commercial break in the debate, which was a direct violation of pre-arranged rules.

But the moment wasn't the only time in the debate that Sink appeared to rely on outside help -- and it wasn't Sink's most embarrassing fail of the debate, either. That came earlier, when Sink and Scott bombed a question on the minimum wage in spectacularly humiliating fashion.

Read more »

NV-SEN

Reid Ad Features Nevada Voters Slamming Angle (VIDEO)

Eric Kleefeld | October 26, 2010, 12:10PM

From a Reid campaign ad, "More Than Wrong"

Harry Reid has a new ad in the Nevada Senate race, continuing to hammer his Republican opponent Sharron Angle as extreme. This ad features various Nevada voters, who would be potentially affected by Angle's positions.

"Sharron Angle says she wants to end Social Security. But we depend on that money...She doesn't think insurance companies should have to cover the colon cancer tests that saved my life...Sharron Angle voted against background checks for people who work with kids...She says if you've been raped, you should be forced to have the baby. She calls it 'making lemonade out of lemons'...As a Republican, I can't, I can't see voting for Sharron Angle.

Then the on-screen text declares Angle to be "Not just extreme, dangerous."

The TPM Poll Average gives Angle a narrow lead of 48.5%-47.4%.

Read more »

MN-GOV

St. Cloud University Poll: Dayton Leads Emmer By 10 Points In MN-GOV

Eric Kleefeld | October 26, 2010, 11:39AM

MN-GOV candidates Tom Emmer (R) and Mark Dayton (D)

A new St. Cloud State University poll of the Minnesota gubernatorial race shows Democrat Mark Dayton leading Republican Tom Emmer, with the Dems poised to pick up the statehouse being vacated by Republican Governor and potential presidential candidate Tim Pawlenty.

The numbers: Dayton 40%, Emmer 30%, and Independence Party candidate Tom Horner 19%. The survey of likely voters has a ±5% margin of error. There is no prior St. Cloud poll for direct comparison. However this number is roughly in line with other polls that have been released recently.

The TPM Poll Average has Dayton with 40.4%, Emmer 35.3%, and Horner 15.0%.

Read more »

Ron Johnson

Mailer Supporting Johnson Warns Government Will Ban Hunting Ammunition

Brian Beutler | October 26, 2010, 11:16AM

Candidate for U.S. Senate Ron Johnson (R-WI)

A political mailer sent to voters in support of Wisconsin Senate candidate Ron Johnson (R) plays on unfounded conservative fears that Democrats will outlaw hunting ammunition.

"It will be hard to hunt when ammo is banned," the mailer reads.

An image of the flier was sent along by a reader, who found it disingenuous. And indeed, groups that support gun bans don't exactly count the Obama administration as an ally.

"Anti-hunting extremists groups are trying to force the federal government to ban traditional hunting ammunition," it reads. "And they just may succeed.... Choose Ron Johnson on November 2. Ron Johnson will lead the fight against the anti-hunting extremists to protect your right to hunt."

The mailer was paid for by Safari Club International's PAC, based in Tucson, AZ.

Read more »

IL-SEN

Fox News Poll: GOPer Kirk Leads IL-SEN By Two Points

Eric Lach | October 26, 2010, 11:14AM

IL Senate candidates Alexi Giannoulias (D) and Mark Kirk (R)

A new Fox News poll of the Illinois Senate race shows Republican Rep. Mark Kirk (43%) with a two-point lead over Democrat Alexi Giannoulias (41%).

Read more »

CT-SEN

Fox News Poll: Blumenthal Leads By 11 Points In CT-SEN

Eric Kleefeld | October 26, 2010, 11:11AM

CT-SEN candidates Richard Blumenthal (D) and Linda McMahon (R)

The new Fox News poll of the Connecticut Senate race provides further corroboration that Democratic state Attorney General Richard Blumenthal has a healthy lead over Republican former World Wrestling Entertainment CEO Linda McMahon.

The numbers: Blumenthal 53%, McMahon 42%. The survey of likely voters has a ±3% margin of error. In the previous Fox poll from two weeks ago, Blumenthal's lead was a narrower 49%-43%.

The TPM Poll Average gives Blumenthal a lead of 52.7%-43.3%.

Read more »

KY-SEN

Fox News Poll: Paul Ahead By 7 In KY-SEN

Evan McMorris-Santoro | October 26, 2010, 10:54AM

KY Sen. candidate Rand Paul (R)

A new poll of the Kentucky Senate race from Fox News shows Republican Rand Paul leading Democrat Jack Conway 50-43.

The survey of 1,000 likely voters, conducted using Rasmussen's automated polling methods Saturday, shows voters slamming President Obama while still expressing some trepidations about Paul. This is the first Fox News poll of the race.

Seventy-two percent said they were either "dissatisfied" or "angry" about "the way the federal government is working" and 76% said President Obama's efforts have "not made much of a difference" or "hurt" Kentucky's economy.

That's not a great landscape for Democrat Jack Conway, especially when the poll shows 53% of those surveyed saying that the Democratic nominee "agrees with President Obama on issues too often." Just 26% said he agreed with the president "the right amount."

Read more »

Rand Paul

Paul Stops Short Of Condemning Attack On MoveOn Protester (VIDEO)

Brian Beutler | October 26, 2010, 10:38AM

On Fox News this morning, Rand Paul publicly discussed the attack that occurred last night in Lexington, KY before the Senate debate, when a number of his supporters dragged a MoveOn protester to the ground, and one stomped on her head. During his appearance, he called for civility, and described the incident as something that should not have happened. But he did not explicitly condemn the attack itself.

"We want everybody to be civil and want the issue, the campaign to be about issues," Paul said.

Read more »

2010 elections

Fox News Poll: Brown Extends Lead In CA-GOV, Boxer Holds Steady In Senate Race

Eric Kleefeld | October 26, 2010, 10:31AM

Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA) and California Attorney General Jerry Brown

The new Fox News poll of California shows Democratic gubernatorial nominee Jerry Brown and incumbent Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer staying ahead in their races.

In the gubernatorial race: Brown 50%, Republican Meg Whitman 41%. In the previous poll from last week, Brown led by a slightly narrower 48%-43% -- in line with a recent trend of Brown expanding his lead in all the polls. The TPM Poll Average for the gubernatorial race gives Brown a lead of 48.4%-41.1%.

In the Senate race: Boxer 48%, Republican Carly Fiorina 44%. In the previous poll from last week, Boxer led by an identical 48%-44%, in line with other pollsters that have shown Boxer with a narrow but steady lead. The TPM Poll Average for the Senate race gives Boxer a lead of 47.1%-43.4%.

The survey of likely voters has a ±3% margin of error.

ed. note: This post has been edited from the original, correcting a typo in the numbers.

Read more »

Stephen Colbert

Colbert On Ken Buck: Being Gay Is Like Alcoholism -- 'Too Much And You Have A Problem' (VIDEO)

Jillian Rayfield | October 26, 2010, 10:13AM

Last night, Stephen Colbert said he agreed with Colorado Republican Senate candidate Ken Buck, who recently compared being gay to alcoholism. "Yes," Colbert said, "being gay is like alcoholism. Too much and you have a problem. But there's nothing wrong with social gayness, I mean, in moderation."

He added that he hopes liberals don't attack Buck and others like him for "being politically opportunistic election-year gay-baiters. They can't help it, they were born that way."

Read more »

WV-SEN

Fox News Poll: GOPer Raese Leads By Two Points In WV-SEN

Eric Kleefeld | October 26, 2010, 10:10AM

West Virginia Senate candidates John Raese (R) and Joe Manchin (D)

The new Fox News poll of the West Virginia Senate race has Republican businessman John Raese holding on to a narrow lead against Democratic Gov. Joe Manchin.

The numbers: Raese 48%, Manchin 46%. The survey of likely voters has a ±3% margin of error. In the previous Fox poll from last week, Raese led by a similar 48%-45%.

This race has been neck and neck, as two factors compete against each other: Manchin's profile as a relatively conservative Democrat and his very high approval rating as governor, at 69% in this particular poll, compared to President Obama's similarly high disapproval in this state, which is at 65% in this survey.

The TPM Poll Average currently gives Manchin an edge of just 46.7%-46.5%.

Read more »

KY-SEN

New Poll Shows Rand Paul Up 13 -- And Voters Don't Like Conway's Aqua Buddha Ad

Evan McMorris-Santoro | October 26, 2010, 10:00AM

Rand Paul

Here's how the last couple weeks in the Kentucky Senate race were supposed to work for Democratic nominee Jack Conway: after pounding Republican nominee Rand Paul for his hybrid libertarian (read: strange) positions on Medicare, taxes and law enforcement, an ad focusing on Paul's alleged college shenanigans would seal the deal for Kentucky voters. Paul would be cast as an extremist outsider, too dangerous to risk a Senate seat on.

Cue the Fail Whale.

A new poll from PPP (D) suggests that Conway's strategy hasn't pleased voters. After weeks of putting Paul on the defensive, Conway now finds himself trailing Paul by 13 points.

Paul leads 53-40 in the poll of 900 likely voters, which was conducted by automated phone call Oct. 21-24. The last PPP poll, from mid-September, showed Paul leading 49-42. The Republican has nearly doubled his lead since, according to PPP.

Further, the poll found that most voters are aware of Conway's infamous "Aqua Buddha" ad (62% of those surveyed said they knew of it) and more than half -- 56% -- said it was "inappropriate." Just 15% said it was "appropriate."

Read more »

MoveOn

MoveOn Urges Paul To Condemn Kentucky Attack, Calls For Arrests

Brian Beutler | October 26, 2010, 9:53AM

Kentucky Senate Candidate Rand Paul (R)

Justin Ruben, Executive Director of MoveOn.org, says in an official statement, "We're appalled at the violent incident that occurred at the Kentucky Senate debate last night."

Numerous news reports clearly show that the young woman--a MoveOn supporter--was assaulted and pushed to the ground by Rand Paul supporters, where one man held her down while another stomped on her head. This kind of violence has no place in American society, much less at a peaceful political rally.

Our first concern is obviously Lauren's health and well being. She is recovering, and we will release more details as we have them. We are concerned that no arrests have yet been made, and we hope those responsible will be brought to justice quickly, and that Rand Paul will join us in condemning this horrible act.

Read more »

PA-SEN

Muhlenberg Tracking Poll: Toomey's Lead Grows To 8 Points In PA-SEN

Eric Kleefeld | October 26, 2010, 9:48AM

Pennsylvania Senate candidates Pat Toomey (R) and Joe Sestak (D)

The new Muhlenberg daily tracking poll of the Pennsylvania Senate race suggests Republican Pat Toomey is solidifying his lead again, after Democrat Joe Sestak was previously closing the gap.

The numbers: Toomey 48%, Sestak 40%. The survey of likely voters has a ±5% margin of error.

In yesterday's tracking poll -- which overlaps today's numbers by three days of sampling, out of four days each -- Toomey led by 47%-42%. By contrast, the tracking poll released last Friday had the two tied at 43%-43%.

The TPM Poll Average still shows a very close race: Toomey 45.8%, Sestak 44.0%.

Read more »

Rand Paul

New Footage Emerges Of MoveOn Activist Stomped By Rand Paul Supporter (VIDEO)

Brian Beutler | October 26, 2010, 9:40AM

Just a quick update on the developing story out of Lexington, Kentucky, where a protester affiliated with MoveOn was dragged to the ground and stomped by Rand Paul supporters ahead of last night's Senate debate.

We understand that the victim has left the hospital, but we don't have official word on her condition. We'll try and get you an update this morning.

Both campaigns have now reacted to the attack, which was caught on camera at multiple angles.

Read more »

CT-SEN

Quinnipiac Poll: Blumenthal Leads By 12 Points In CT-SEN

Eric Kleefeld | October 26, 2010, 9:15AM

Connecticut candidates for U.S. Senate Linda McMahon (R) and Richard Blumenthal (D)

The new Quinnipiac poll of the Connecticut Senate race shows Democrat Richard Blumenthal maintaining a double-digit lead over Republican Linda McMahon.

The numbers: Blumenthal 54%, McMahon 42%. The survey of likely voters has a ±3.7% margin of error. In the previous Quinnipiac poll from two weeks ago, Blumenthal led by a very similar 54%-43%.

From the pollster's analysis: "Linda McMahon has tried to raise Attorney General Richard Blumenthal's negatives over the last several weeks, but she hasn't been successful. He remains popular, but McMahon's own negatives have risen above 50 percent. One has to wonder if over the last few weeks McMahon would have been better off spending more of her millions on positive ads."

The TPM Poll Average gives Blumenthal a lead of 52.6%-43.4%.

Read more »

Tea Party

Top Six Established Laws That Tea Partiers Claim Are Unconstitutional

Brian Beutler | October 26, 2010, 8:59AM

Tea Party activists in Washington, D.C.

It seems as if we've heard more about the Constitution this election than we did in 2008, when questions of due process and cruel and unusual punishment were bona fide election issues. Two years in to Barack Obama's presidency, after turning a blind eye throughout the Bush years, a key goal for the Tea Party this election is to "return" to the Constitution. Minus certain parts of it. And only if you read other parts in a very specific way.

We know the Tea Party has a ... unique interpretation of the country's foundational text, but it's hard sometimes to keep track of all the things their favored candidates would like to see abolished or relegated as part of this "return."

Their convenient reading of various amendments -- particularly the 10th -- would radically transform the country as we know it. Here are a few major programs that would change or disappear.

Read more »

2010 elections

Democrats Call On Michelle Obama To Help Push Early Voting (VIDEO)

Evan McMorris-Santoro | October 26, 2010, 5:20AM

First Lady Michelle Obama

The DNC is hoping First Lady Michelle Obama can drive Democrats to the polls before Election Day. The party is pushing Democrats to turn out early nationwide with a web initiative and video starring Obama.

Early voting has become a potential ray of sunshine in the Democrats' cloudy electoral forecast. Early results have shown Democrats turning out in decent numbers so far, giving the party and its supporters hope that it might upset the narrative of big GOP gains the polls that the media have pre-written this year.

With the new Obama video and accompanying RaiseYourVote website, Democrats appear to be hoping to build on their early vote momentum.

Read more »

Rand Paul

Rand Paul Supporter Stomps Head Of Female MoveOn Member Outside KY Debate (VIDEO)

Brian Beutler | October 25, 2010, 11:29PM

Josh Green flagged an incident that occurred outside of the Rand Paul-Jack Conway debate in Lexington, Kentucky Monday night that's already dominating the news in Kentucky and could easily make headlines nationally.

As the candidates arrived, a group of Paul supporters pulled a female MoveOn member to the ground and held her there as another Paul supporter stomped on the back of her head and neck.

According to the Louisville Courier Journal, "Lauren Valle of MoveOn.org approached Paul and tried to give him an "employee of the month award" from Republicorp...a fake business MoveOn created to symbolize what it says is the merger of the GOP and business interests controlling political speech."

The whole thing was caught on video. Watch:

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KY-SEN

Rand Paul: I Want To Be Just Like Jim Bunning

Evan McMorris-Santoro | October 25, 2010, 9:00PM

KY Sen. candidate Rand Paul (R)

Kentucky voters got a look at some of the stark choices they will face on Nov. 2 in the final debate between Senate nominees Jack Conway (D) and Rand Paul (R). Though the debate -- a quiet, sit-down affair on Kentucky public television -- lacked some of the fireworks of the last meeting of the two men, there were plenty of barbs thrown around between Conway and Paul, and plenty of distinctions to be made between the two.

Perhaps the starkest came at the very end, when the debate moderator asked each nominee which Kentucky politician most inspired him. Conway named legendary Democratic Sen. Wendell Ford, who retired from the Senate after 25 years representing the Bluegrass State in the chamber. For a Democrat running for office in Kentucky, the choice was not a surprise.

Paul named the man whom he is vying to replace -- the irascible Republican Sen. Jim Bunning, who has come to represent perhaps the most stubborn of the opposition to legislative action in the Senate. He hailed Bunning's vote against TARP -- which most economists at the time said was necessary to prevent an economic collapse the likes of which the country had never seen -- as an example of heroism by Kentucky's retiring junior Senator.

Bunning "stood up and said the bank bailout was wrong," Paul said. "Many people can come later and say they would have opposed it, but he stood up and on principle voted the way he thought was right for Kentucky and I'm proud of him for that."

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DE-SEN

O'Donnell: Prayer For My Campaign 'Plays A Direct Role' In The Polls (VIDEO)

Eric Kleefeld | October 25, 2010, 6:15PM

Senate candidate Christine O'Donnell (R-DE), in an interview on Christian Broadcasting Network

In an interview with David Brody on the Christian Broadcasting Network, Delaware Republican Senate nominee Christine O'Donnell expanded on her previous statements that her campaign for Senate is a mission from God. Indeed, she added that an improvement in the polls was divine intervention, an answer to the prayers of her supporters.

"God is the reason that I'm running," said O'Donnell. "If I didn't believe that there were a cause greater than myself worth fighting for, if I didn't believe that it takes a complete dying of self to make things right in this election cycle I would not be running and when you die to yourself you rely on a power greater than yourself so prayer is what's gotten us all through.

"The day that we saw a spike in the polls was a day that some people had a prayer meeting for me that morning for this campaign so I believe that prayer plays a direct role in this campaign and I always ask please pray for the campaign; please pray for our staff; please pray specifically that the eyes of the voters be opened."

[TPM SLIDESHOW - Christine O'Donnell: Anti-Masturbation Crusader. Witchcraft Dabbler. Republican Senate Nominee.]

The TPM Poll Average has Democrat Chris Coons leading O'Donnell by 55.5%-37.2%, despite the one narrower poll that O'Donnell appeared to be referring to. Hmm -- if O'Donnell were to win this election, that really would be a miracle!

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Keith Ellison

Tea Party Nation: Retire Rep. Ellison For Being A Muslim

Eric Lach | October 25, 2010, 6:06PM

Rep. Keith Ellison (D-MN)

This weekend, Tea Party Nation (TPN) sent an email in support of Lynne Torgerson, who is running against Rep. Keith Ellison in Minnesota. In the email, TPN lists the reasons Ellison should be "retired." Among them: "He is the only Muslim member of congress."

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2010 elections

Manchin Ad: 'John Raese's Ideas Are Crazy' (VIDEO)

Eric Kleefeld | October 25, 2010, 5:27PM

Ad from. Gov. Joe Manchin (D-WV), "Good Message"

Democrat Joe Manchin has a new ad in the West Virginia Senate race, attacking a variety of Republican John Raese's right-wing positions.

The ad cuts together different video clips of Raese speaking: "I've already been defeated three times. That's a pretty good message from West Virginia, I think. But I'm gonna tell you this...I don't agree with minimum wage...I'm in the business of not providing jobs. I'm in the business of making money...We don't need the Department of Education...We need 1,000 laser systems put in the sky -- and we need it right now."

An announcer cuts in: "John Raese's ideas are crazy," with the word "CRAZY" across the screen.

Then back to Raese: "Why am I running? Do I need this?"

The TPM Poll Average currently gives Manchin a lead of 46.9%-46.0%, in a race that has been neck-and-neck for several weeks.

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NV-SEN

Angle Ad: Reid On Illegal Immigrants' Side, 'Not Yours' (VIDEO)

Eric Kleefeld | October 25, 2010, 4:55PM

Ad from candidate for U.S. Senate Sharron Angle (R-NV), "The Wave"

Nevada Republican Senate nominee Sharron Angle has a new ad, pushing further on a theme she's been hammering for some time: That Democrat Harry Reid is friendly to scary illegal immigrants, harming good law-abiding (white) Americans and their children.

"Waves of illegal aliens streaming across our border, joining violent gangs, forcing families to live in fear," the announcer says. "And what's Harry Reid doing about it? Voting to give illegal aliens Social Security benefits, tax breaks, and college tuition. Voting against declaring English our national language -- twice. And even sided with Obama and the President of Mexico to block Arizona's tough new immigration law. Harry Reid, it's clear whose side he's on -- and it's not yours."

As with a previous ad, the victims of illegal immigration -- in this case the families living in fear, and kindergarteners who won't grow up in an America where English is the only official language -- all appear to be white, and stand in stark contrast to the dark-skinned criminals illegally coming from the Mexican border.

The TPM Poll Average gives Angle a lead of 48.5%-47.4%.

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Toni Sessoms

Robocall Against MI State House Candidate Uses The Word 'Homosexual' 10 Times

Jillian Rayfield | October 25, 2010, 4:40PM

Toni Sessoms

A robocall put out by the Campaign for Michigan Families accuses openly gay state House candidate Toni Sessoms (D) of being a "candidate with a hidden agenda, a homosexual activist's agenda." And it does so by repeating the word "homosexual" ten times.

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CA-SEN

Fiorina Ad: California's Hopes Are 'Crushed' By Boxer (VIDEO)

Eric Kleefeld | October 25, 2010, 4:33PM

Ad from candidate for U.S. Senate Carly Fiorina (R-CA), "Crushed"

Republican candidate Carly Fiorina has a new ad in the California Senate race, with an especially bleak attack against incumbent Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer: California is a hopeless wasteland, populated by indigent people trudging through a Steinbeckian dust bowl with no jobs in sight -- and it's all Boxer's fault.

"Barbara Boxer failed to protect California jobs," the announcer says. "Praises the stimulus plan, while two-and-a-quarter million Californians are unemployed. Trillions in deficits, billions in taxes. Our hopes crushed by Washington. The legacy of Barbara Boxer.

"We can change Washington. But not unless we change the people we send there."

The TPM Poll Average gives Boxer a lead of 47.0%-43.3%.

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KY-SEN

GOP Runs Its Own Aqua Buddha Spot In KY-SEN (VIDEO)

Evan McMorris-Santoro | October 25, 2010, 3:52PM

From a NRSC campaign ad, "Change the Subject"

You might think the Republicans want to move the Kentucky Senate race away from Aqua Buddha and back to something they'd rather talk about -- like, oh, anything else. But in a new TV ad the NRSC is dropping on the Bluegrass State, Republicans are trying to make hay out Democratic nominee Jack Conway's decision to turn tales of Republican Rand Paul's years in college against him.

Conway, of course, turned national attention to Kentucky with his ad calling on Paul to explain stories of his days at Baylor University first told in the pages of GQ. The stories include membership in a banned campus group that Baylor officials said "mocked Christianity" and a bizarre "hazing" incident that included Paul and a friend tying up a woman and putting her in a creek before asking her to pray to the god "Aqua Buddha."

The ad -- and Conway's decision to make Paul's years at Baylor a campaign issue -- drew fire from both sides. Paul and the Republicans condemned the spots as unfair, while some Democrats and reporters said they crossed the line and tried to hold Paul responsible for things he did as a teenager.

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CA-GOV

Jerry Brown Ad: My Opponent Meg Whitman Loved California When I Was Governor

Eric Kleefeld | October 25, 2010, 3:17PM

From a Jerry Brown campaign ad, "Whitman: 'Why I Came to California'

Democrat Jerry Brown has an amazing new ad in the California gubernatorial race, touting the praise of his great record in public service from none other than...his Republican opponent Meg Whitman!

The ad shows footage of Whitman, delivering one of her standard stump lines about the time when she first moved to California, and how concerned she is with the state's current broken condition: "You know, 30 years ago anything was possible in this state."

The screen then cuts to black, with on-screen text: "Who was Governor 30 years ago? Jerry Brown."

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IL-SEN

DSCC Poll: Giannoulias Up By 2 Points In IL-SEN

Eric Lach | October 25, 2010, 3:16PM

IL-SEN candidates Alexi Giannoulias (D) and Rep. Mark Kirk (R)

A new Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee poll of the Illinois Senate race shows Democrat Alexi Giannoulias leading Republican Rep. Mark Kirk 41%-39% in a head-to-head match-up, with 19% of likely voters still undecided.

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WV-SEN

PPP Poll: Manchin Leads By Six Points In WV-SEN

Eric Kleefeld | October 25, 2010, 2:55PM

The new survey of the West Virginia Senate race from Public Policy Polling (D) gives Democratic Gov. Joe Manchin the lead against Republican businessman John Raese.

The numbers: Manchin 50%, Raese 44%. The survey of likely voters has a ±2.8% margin of error. In the previous PPP survey from three weeks ago, Manchin had taken a lead of 48%-45%, after Raese had been ahead two weeks before that.

This race pitted Manchin's massive popularity as governor against President Obama's equally formidable unpopularity as president in this state. The polls have been very close, with alternating bouts of momentum by both Manchin and Raese.

The TPM Poll Average gives Manchin a lead of 46.9%-46.0%.

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KY-SEN

Conway Not Afraid To Make Final Kentucky Senate Debate About 'Aqua Buddha'

Evan McMorris-Santoro | October 25, 2010, 2:20PM

KY Senate candidates Rand Paul (R) and Jack Conway (D)

No one knows just what will be discussed when Republican Rand Paul and Democrat Jack Conway meet in the final debate of the Kentucky Senate race tonight at 8 p.m. ET. But Conway's campaign told me today that if the moderator tonight wants to make the debate all about "Aqua Buddha," that's fine with them.

"We've said all along that Rand Paul needs to answer basic questions about the actions that he's taken," Conway spokesperson John Collins told me on a conference call with reporters this morning. Collins said that questions surrounding Paul's undergraduate years at Baylor University -- including his membership in a banned campus group and the infamous incident where Paul allegedly led a blindfolded and tied-up woman to a creek and asked her to worship "Aqua Buddha" -- remain unanswered, and suggested Conway is prepared to let the Baylor stories take over another Senate debate in Kentucky.

"If he would explain it as whatever the case is, I think it would just go away," Collins said.

A repeat of the Oct. 17 debate, which saw Paul storm off the stage without shaking Conway's hand after the Democrat kept asking him to explain Aqua Buddha, would probably make for exciting television, but it's not clear that it would be what either campaign wants at this point. Paul considered dropping out of tonight's debate on Kentucky's public television system over concerns that it would be a repeat of the Oct. 17 meeting between the two candidates. And Conway has spent the last few days talking about anything but Aqua Buddha, suggesting that his campaign is ready to move to another topic tonight, too.

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NV-SEN

Despite Angle Campaign Denial, New Video Appears To Show Angle Did Shush Reporter

Eric Kleefeld | October 25, 2010, 2:01PM

From a Reid campaign ad, "Stark Contrast"

Remember that moment last week when a local Fox affiliate reporter in Las Vegas said that Republican Senate nominee Sharron Angle shushed him when he tried to ask her a question as she was leaving an event? The Angle campaign strongly denied she had done so, saying instead that it was someone else in the crowd. (And of course, the camera angle from the Fox reporter, as he and he cameraman made their way through a crowd of reporters, made it impossible to truly prove otherwise.) But now some other footage appears to show that Angle clearly did shush the guy.

The video is part of a CNBC segment about the two candidates on the trail, and the whole segment was posted on YouTube by Democratic Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid's campaign. The key moment comes at the 1:43 mark. It does appear to be the same moment as on the original video -- it is the same reporter's voice, the same "shhh," Angle is wearing the same clothes, etc. And it does seem to clearly contradict the Angle campaign's denial.

The Angle campaign has not returned our requests for comment.

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NV-SEN

A Rundown Of Recount Laws In States With Close Statewide Elections

Brian Beutler and Elizabeth Harrison | October 25, 2010, 12:55PM

Workers recount ballots from the 2008 Minnesota Senate race.

It's been a grueling election season, but at least it will all be over next week.

Unless, of course, it's not. An unusual number of closely contested races means the chances are fairly high that one or more high-profile elections will end in a recount. With nearly 100 House seats in play, a recount could be triggered in just about every state. In Senate and gubernatorial elections, though, we have a better idea of where to watch -- i.e., which races are within the margin of error, or narrowing quickly.

Here's a rundown of recount rules in key states. Remember, control of the Senate could depend on this.

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DE-SEN

Christine O'Donnell's New Attack On Coons: Meet 'Rubber Stamp Man' (VIDEO)

Evan McMorris-Santoro | October 25, 2010, 12:45PM

Christine O'Donnell campaign ad, "Chris Coons is...Rubber Stamp Man"

Republican Christine O'Donnell's latest attack video in the Delaware Senate race uses a cute kid in a Halloween costume to rip Democrat Chris Coons. It also compares President Obama to God.

And that's before you get to the clip from Maddow.

A sequel to the Republican O'Donnell's movie preview-themed web ad from two weeks ago, the new ad casts the Democrat Coons as a "superhero" whose power is rubberstamping the Democratic agenda. To make her point, O'Donnell uses grainy tracker footage and a clip from a Coons' interview with Rachel Maddow in which Coons says he supports the president and would vote in favor of keeping Harry Reid as the Democratic leader in the Senate if the two of them make it to Washington.

Like O'Donnell's last web ad, the message in the new spot is aimed right at the Republican base vote in Delaware. The last video called Coons "The Tax Man," the sort of tax-raising zombie all Republicans fear. The new video not only says Coons will be the White House's man in the Senate, but also makes a less-than-subtle reference to Republican claims of arrogance on the part of the Obama administration that has been a key part of tea party messaging.

"Growing up, Chris Coons wanted to be a superhero with with powers granted by a supreme being," the movie preview voice over says.

"Now, he gets that chance," the narrator continues, as an image of Obama and Vice President Biden stumping for Coons.

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WI-SEN

Feingold Ad: Ron Johnson Is A Blank Whiteboard (VIDEO)

Eric Kleefeld | October 25, 2010, 12:40PM

From a Feingold campaign ad, "Whiteboard"

Sen. Russ Feingold (D-WI) has a new ad against his Republican opponent Ron Johnson, slamming Johnson's multiple admissions that he does not have detailed policy proposals. The ad depicted Johnson's non-existent plans as a blank whiteboard, which ultimately collapses to the floor.

"Ron Johnson has spent a lot of money on TV ads. But he won't tell you what his plans are," the announcer says. "When he was asked what his plan was to create jobs, he didn't have one. When he was asked what spending he would cut, he said he wouldn't play that game. The fact is, Mr. Johnson has no plans. He says his true feelings can take voice after the election. When times are tough, who do you trust to stand up for us?"

The TPM Poll Average gives Johnson a lead of 51.7%-44.4%.

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MS-04

Blue Dog Dem Gene Taylor: I Voted For McCain In 2008!

Eric Kleefeld | October 25, 2010, 12:03PM

Rep. Gene Taylor (D-MS)

When it comes to Blue Dog Democratic Congressmen in red districts distancing themselves from President Obama, it doesn't get any better than this: Rep. Gene Taylor (D-MS) says he voted for John McCain in 2008, the Biloxi Sun Herald reports:

Taylor said he voted for Republican John McCain for president and is annoyed a Palazzo ad blasts the Mississippi congressman for voting with Pelosi 82 percent of the time. He likes to emphasize the times he's broken with the leadership on major votes, such as health care and cap-and-trade. Taylor is often viewed as a potential party-switcher; asked about switching to the GOP, he said, "Both parties are screwed up. They're screwed up in different ways."

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Frank Caprio

RI-GOV Dem: Obama Can Take His Endorsement And 'Shove It'

Jillian Rayfield | October 25, 2010, 11:38AM

Rhode Island Gov. Candidate Frank Caprio (D)

Frank Caprio, a Democrat running for governor in Rhode Island, doesn't really care that President Obama hasn't endorsed him. "He can take his endorsement and really shove it," Caprio told WPRO Radio.

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IL-SEN

Tribune Poll: Kirk Leads Giannoulias By 3 Points In IL-SEN

Eric Lach | October 25, 2010, 10:57AM

IL Senate candidates Alexi Giannoulias (D) and Mark Kirk (R)

A new Chicago Tribune/WGN poll of the Illinois Senate race shows a still-close contest, but the numbers show a five-point swing in favor of Republican Rep. Mark Kirk since the last Tribune poll.

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AK-SEN

Murkowski Attacks Miller For 'East Germany' Remarks At AK-SEN Debate (VIDEO)

Jillian Rayfield | October 25, 2010, 10:54AM

Joe Miller and Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK)

The three Alaska Senate candidates participated in a debate last night, and write-in candidate Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R) used some of her time to hit Republican Joe Miller for his remark that if East Germany could secure its border during the time of the Berlin Wall, the U.S. certainly can as well. "We should not be looking to East Germany as a model for our security and border enforcement," Murkowski said.

Miller responded: "Last time I checked, East Germany was no longer a nation."

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CA-GOV

Meg Whitman Ad: I Know You Might Not Like Me, But Please Vote For Me (VIDEO)

Eric Kleefeld | October 25, 2010, 10:46AM

Campaign ad from gubernatorial candidate Meg Whitman (R-CA), "I'm Ready"

Meg Whitman has an interesting closing statement ad, going into the home stretch of the California gubernatorial race: I know you may not like me, but really, I'm a good person and I can turn the state around.

"I know many of you see this election as an unhappy choice between a longtime politician with no plan for the future, and a billionaire with no government experience," Whitman says. "Let me tell you my story."

The TPM Poll Average gives Democrat Jerry Brown a lead of 47.9%-41.6%, with clear momentum on Brown's side as he rises and Whitman falls. The poll average also shows Whitman with a very low favorable rating of only 41.9%, with 51.5% unfavorable. Brown's average favorable rating is also in negative territory, but at a much closer 47.0%-48.6%.

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CA-GOV

L.A. Times Poll: Jerry Brown Leads Meg Whitman By 13 Points

Eric Kleefeld | October 25, 2010, 10:14AM

California Attorney General and gubernatorial candidate Jerry Brown (D)

The Los Angeles Times poll of the California gubernatorial race released this weekend shows Democrat Jerry Brown pulling away from Republican Meg Whitman.

The numbers: Brown 52%, Whitman 39%. The survey of likely voters has a ±3.2% margin of error. In the previous poll from a month ago, Brown was ahead by a narrower 49%-44%.

The polling shows some anecdotal evidence that Whitman's massive personal spending on the race -- she has put in more than $141 million of her own money on the race -- may have over-saturated the market and only alienated some voters:

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2010 elections

Karl Rove On The Wrong Side Of The Tea Party Again (VIDEO)

Evan McMorris-Santoro | October 25, 2010, 10:05AM

Karl Rove

Karl Rove is pushing back on tea party accusations that he embodies the worst of the GOP establishment. Again.

Rove has found himself on the wrong side of the tea party quite a few times this election season. Yesterday, on CBS' Face The Nation, he stood up to critics on the ultra-right who say he's part of the failed Republican establishment they're hoping to purge with nominees like Sharron Angle, Ken Buck and Christine O'Donnell.

Rove's stand lasted less than one minute, before he hastily apologized to the tea party and He Who Must Be Obeyed among the GOP, Rush Limbaugh.

The most recent flap began last week, when Rove told Der Spiegel that the movement driving the GOP these days lacked the "well-organized, coherent" and "ideologically motivated" backbone of the Reagan Revolution.

"If you look underneath the surface of the Tea Party movement, on the other hand, you will find that it is not sophisticated," Rove told the German paper, according to the Huffington Post. "It's not like these people have read the economist Friedrich August von Hayek. Rather, these are people who are deeply concerned about what they see happening to their country, particularly when it comes to spending, deficits, debt and health care."

So there you have it. Rove, the Architect, thinks the modern driving force in the GOP -- you know, the one that stars a woman who had to assure voters that "I'm not a witch" in her campaign commercials -- lacks the, er, polish of the party during the Reagan era. (As HuffPo noted, the Der Spiegel interview wasn't the first time Rove's said it.)

Bring on Rush's outrage, Rove's desperate attempts to redeem himself with his conservative Republican friends, and Rove's eventual apology to all involved. It's a movie we've seen before, but yesterday was a far more truncated version.

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CT-SEN

Rasmussen Poll: Blumenthal Leads McMahon By 13 Points In CT-SEN

Eric Kleefeld | October 25, 2010, 9:54AM

Connecticut Attorney General Richard Blumenthal

The new Rasmussen poll of the Connecticut Senate race shows Democratic state Attorney General Richard Blumenthal pulling away strongly from Republican Linda McMahon, the former CEO of World Wrestling Entertainment.

The numbers: Blumenthal 56%, McMahon 43%. The survey of likely voters has a ±4% margin of error. In the previous Rasmussen poll from two weeks ago, Blumenthal had a narrower lead of 51%-46%.

As a result of this poll, Rasmussen has now changed its rating of this race from "Leans Democrat" to "Solid Democrat."

The TPM Poll Average gives Blumenthal a lead of 52.3%-43.6%.

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Joe Arpaio

Arpaio Boasts: I Gave Sarah Palin Pink Underwear!

Brian Beutler | October 25, 2010, 9:38AM

Sheriff Joe Arpaio and Sarah Palin

Maricopa County, AZ Sheriff Joe Arpaio gave Sarah Palin the prisoner treatment this weekend, then took to Twitter to brag all about it. Of course, in Arpaio-land, "the prisoner treatment" equals a pair of pink underpants.

"I just got done welcoming Sarah Palin to our County. Had a nice chat and gave her a pair of pink underwear," Arpaio tweeted.

Palin was in town for a Tea Party Express rally -- not specifically to accept the panty package. (That was just a perk.) Arpaio has gained notoriety for demeaning prisoners in Maricopa County, including by housing them in tents and making them wear pink -- all the way down to their skivvies.

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Sean Bielat

Barney Frank's Opponent Compares Gay People To Short People

Brian Beutler | October 25, 2010, 9:37AM

Barney Frank's Republican House challenger Sean Bielat argued this weekend that gay people should be as accepting of the fact that they can't serve in the military -- since people under 5'2" tall are also prohibited.

"There's no absolute right to serve. Men under the height of 5 feet, 2 inches can't serve -- I don't see anybody protesting," Bielat said, according to the Boston Herald. "Where are the people standing in front of the White House, the short guys standing in front of the White House? You don't see it."

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PA-SEN

Muhlenberg Tracking Poll: Toomey Leads By Five Points In PA-SEN

Eric Kleefeld | October 25, 2010, 9:29AM

Pennsylvania Senate candidates Pat Toomey (R) and Joe Sestak (D)

The new Muhlenberg daily tracking poll of the Pennsylvania Senate race shows Republican Pat Toomey regaining a lead over Democrat Joe Sestak.

The numbers: Toomey 47%, Sestak 42%. The survey of likely voters has a ±5% margin of error.

The survey of likely voters has a ±5% margin of error. In yesterday's tracking poll -- which overlaps today's numbers by three days of sampling, out of four days each -- Toomey led by 46%-43%. In the poll released last Friday, the two were tied at 43%-43%.

The TPM Poll Average gives Toomey a narrow lead of 46.2%-44.3%, with a recent strong surge for Sestak.

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CO-GOV

Dan Maes Disaster Could Leave The Colorado GOP A Minor Party

Eric Lach | October 25, 2010, 8:39AM

Dan Maes (R), candidate for Colorado governor

Colorado Republican gubernatorial nominee Dan Maes' disaster of a 2010 campaign could turn into a four-year embarrassment for state Republicans. It's been one blunder after another for Maes since he barely won the August 10 primary over former Rep. Scott McInnis, whose campaign was done in by a plagiarism scandal. But if Maes fails to get 10 percent of the vote on election day, his legacy won't be the U.N. bike plot warning or the tall tale of working undercover as a cop in Kansas. It will be leaving Republicans with minor party status in Colorado until 2014.

After weeks of declines in the polls, the TPM Poll Average now shows Maes coming in at 9.3%.

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