House Democratic Whip Race

Progressives For Steny? Liberal Members Line Up For Moderate Minority Whip

Brian Beutler | November 6, 2010, 8:10PM

James Clyburn and Steny Hoyer

We have a race!

When Jim Clyburn threw his name into contention to be the Democrats' Minority Whip next Congress yesterday, it touched off a tough race between himself and the Dems' current Majority Leader Steny Hoyer. The results of the midterm elections didn't help Hoyer. Many of the members who lost were moderate and conservative Democrats who saw Hoyer as a sympathetic ally in an otherwise liberal leadership. Clyburn, has significant support among members of the Congressional Black Caucus, and is more ideologically aligned with the progressive-leaning minority.

Not so fast, though.

A number of House progressives -- members of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, even -- are circling their wagons around Hoyer, hoping to balance the leadership ticket next year.

In a "Dear Colleague" letter to Democratic members, progressive Rep. Jared Polis (D-CO) made the pitch for Hoyer.

"I believe that it is in the best interests of our Caucus to keep Majority Leader Hoyer as a member of our Democratic leadership team--a team that helped Democrats pass a range of landmark legislation," Polis wrote. "Keeping Steny Hoyer in leadership will help to unify our Caucus and ensure that House Democrats hit the ground running in the new Congress."

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AK-SEN

Stand By Your Man? Huckabee And DeMint Still Backing Joe Miller, Palin Silent

Jillian Rayfield | November 6, 2010, 11:28AM

Mike Huckabee, Joe Miller, and Jim DeMint

As the Alaska Division of Elections gets ready to count the write-in ballots next week for the Senate race, Republican nominee and tea party favorite Joe Miller has remained confident in his ability to win the race against Sen. Lisa Murkowski.

Murkowski launched a write-in bid after Miller's surprise victory in the Republican primary, and in the end, 41% of the votes went to write-in candidates while 34.3% went to the Miller. Under Alaska election rules, all of the ballots will be counted to determine how many were for write-in candidate Murkowski.

The seat will remain in Republican hands regardless -- Democrat Scott McAdams has already conceded -- but many GOPers are still in an awkward spot, having to wait out a protracted vote count between an establishment senator and the tea party upstart they backed against her.

So where do Miller's staunchest Republican supporters stand now?

Read more »

Sunday Shows

The Sunday Show Line-Ups

Eric Kleefeld | November 5, 2010, 6:17PM

Sen. Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY)

Here are the line-ups for the Sunday talk shows this weekend:

• ABC, This Week: Sen.-elect Rand Paul (R-KY), Rep. Mike Pence (R-IN), former Reagan administration Budget Director David Stockman.

• CBS, Face The Nation: Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY), House Majority Whip James Clyburn (D-SC).

• CNN, State Of The Union: Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R-MN), Gov. Rick Perry (R-TX), Rep. Chris Van Hollen (D-MD), Sen.-elect Pat Toomey (R-PA).

• Fox News Sunday: House Republican Whip Eric Cantor (R-VA), Rep. Darrell Issa (R-CA), Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI).

• NBC, Meet The Press: Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC), Gov. Chris Christie (R-NJ).

RNC

RNC Changes 'Fire Pelosi' Message To 'Hire Pelosi'

Evan McMorris-Santoro | November 5, 2010, 6:16PM

Add the Republican National Committee to the list of those welcoming Speaker Nancy Pelosi's decision to stay in Washington and run for House Minority Leader after Tuesday's Democratic shellacking at the hands of the GOP.

Many Republicans made hay raising the specter of the "Obama-Pelosi agenda" on the campaign trail this year, but perhaps none more so than RNC chair Michael Steele. He set off across the country on a Fire Pelosi bus tour and adorned RNC HQ with a giant "Fire Pelosi" banner over the front door.

For Steele and the RNC, Pelosi was enemy number one. Steele took great joy when voters obeyed his banner and his bus and stripped Pelosi of her House majority on Tuesday night. Now, with Pelosi planning to stay as the head of House Democrats, Steele is offering caucus voters some more advice in banner form.

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MN-GOV

Local Fox Reporter Indignantly Grills MN Sec Of State Over Recount (VIDEO)

Eric Kleefeld | November 5, 2010, 6:02PM

Minnesota Secretary of State Mark Ritchie (D)

If there's a close election in Minnesota...then Fox News is all over it, and going after the Democrats. Check out this amazing interview that Heidi Collins, formerly of CNN and now an anchor on the local Fox station in her native Twin Cities area, did with Democratic Secretary of State Mark Ritchie on Wednesday night. Among the suspicious points she raises against Ritchie regarding the gubernatorial recount is that...his office was prepared for a recount!

In the race to succeed Repubican Gov. Tim Pawlenty, Democratic former U.S. Sen. Mark Dayton currently leads Republican state Rep. Tom Emmer by slightly under 9,000 votes, a percentage gap of 0.42% out of about 2.1 million votes. Though this figure is within the 0.5% margin that would trigger a mandatory hand recount, past experience from the state's long-running 2008 Senate recount and legal contest -- in which the margins were only ever a few hundred votes out of 2.9 million ballots -- would suggest that the outcome is highly unlikely to switch to the Republicans.

Collins opened the interview by playing a video clip of state GOP chair Tony Sutton blaming Ritchie for the recount, and saying that it should be "a process that's dominated by an ACORN activist who happens to be the Secretary of State."

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House Democratic Whip Race

Inside The Bruising Democratic Leadership Fight: Pelosi Moves To Box Out Hoyer

Brian Beutler | November 5, 2010, 4:57PM

Majority Leader Steny Hoyer with other House Democrats

Here's what we know about the brewing House Democratic leadership struggle, and how the situation emerged.

The short version is this: By losing the Speakership, Democrats lose a leadership position. If the hope is to transition the current leadership team over into the minority, somebody's gotta go. Nancy Pelosi's apparently angling for that person to be current Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-MD).

At a long meeting between Pelosi and Hoyer after the election, Hoyer and Pelosi discussed the issue of Democratic leadership extensively, according to a democratic aide and a member of the Democratic caucus.

As recently as last night, Pelosi was saying publicly that she hadn't even really had time to think about whether to fight for the top slot in the House Minority. But clearly that wasn't quite the case.

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NE-SEN

Nebraska's GOP Atty. Gen. To Run Against Ben Nelson

Eric Kleefeld | November 5, 2010, 4:29PM

Sen. Ben Nelson (D-NE).

Sen. Ben Nelson (D-NE) already has a challenger for his 2012 re-election, the Lincoln Journal Star reports, with Republican state Attorney General Jon Bruning forming an exploratory committee:

Bruning has started raising money for a Senate campaign, formed a four-person campaign staff, and is ready to go.

"I can't imagine any conditions under which I would not run," Bruning acknowledged at a news conference in the Capitol Rotunda.

"I want to run. I'm ready to run."

Read more »

MSNBC

Scarborough, Buchanan Also Made Political Contributions

Jillian Rayfield | November 5, 2010, 3:16PM

Pat Buchanan and Joe Scarborough

MSNBC suspended host Keith Olbermann today, following revelations that he made campaign contributions to three Democrats in the elections -- a violation of MSNBC policy.

But a search of OpenSecrets.org reveals that MSNBC host Joe Scarborough and MSNBC contributor Pat Buchanan have also made contributions to political campaigns. Here's what we found...

Read more »

IL-GOV

GOPer Brady Concedes IL-GOV Race To Dem Pat Quinn

Eric Kleefeld | November 5, 2010, 2:51PM

Bill Brady (R) and Gov. Pat Quinn (D-IL)

The Illinois gubernatorial race has now come to an end, with Republican nominee state Sen. Bill Brady conceding the race to Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn.

The Chicago Tribune reports:

"I just a few minutes ago got off the phone with Gov. Quinn and congratulated him on his victory," said Brady at a packed news conference at a hotel in downstate Bloomington with dozens of well wishers in attendance. "We came to the conclusion that Gov. Quinn won this race."

Brady called leading Illinois Republicans this morning to inform them of his decision to end the race as he trails Quinn by more than 19,000 votes.

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Steny Hoyer

Hoyer Likely To Challenge Clyburn For Minority Whip

Brian Beutler | November 5, 2010, 2:43PM

House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-MD)

Steny Hoyer won't be challenging Nancy Pelosi for House Minority Leader. But he's very likely to challenge James Clyburn (the current Majority Whip) in the race to be Minority Whip next Congress.

In a statement, Hoyer says "Speaker Pelosi has announced that she will be running for Democratic Leader in the next Congress. In the days since the election, I have received an outpouring of support from Democratic colleagues who have told me that I should remain in our party's leadership, so that our Caucus can hit the ground running with a strong, tested leadership team. Over the next several days, I will continue to speak to my colleagues about serving our Caucus as Democratic Whip, and I will announce a decision after I have consulted with them."

For a bit of context, Clyburn is a Pelosi ally. Hoyer and Pelosi, by contrast, haven't had the best relationship, and clashed frequently. Clyburn's swift announcement of his intentions, on the heels of Pelosi's decision -- combined with the fact that Pelosi has urged Larson to seek the third-ranking position in the minority -- suggests that the two of them are trying to consolidate power and squeeze Hoyer out. Seems like he's not going gently.

James Clyburn

Clyburn Running For Minority Whip

Brian Beutler | November 5, 2010, 2:03PM

James Clyburn and Steny Hoyer

In a letter this morning, House Majority Whip James Clyburn asked for his colleagues support in a bid to be Minority Whip next Congress.

I am seeking your support and vote for Democratic Whip. Throughout the course of my tenure, I have demonstrated the ability and willingness to give selfless service to our Caucus. My record of leadership in our Caucus has prepared me well for the challenges ahead. I am confident we can rebuild the coalition that carried Democrats and President Obama into office in 2008 and that it will lead us on the road back to the majority in 2012.

This is pretty clearly a bid to squeeze Steny Hoyer out of the leadership. Hoyer's currently Majority Leader, but after his base of conservative Democrats was demolished in the last election, he'd have a hard time defeating either Pelosi -- who's running for Minority Leader -- or Clyburn.

You can read the full letter below the fold.

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Nancy Pelosi

Pelosi To Run For Minority Leader

Brian Beutler | November 5, 2010, 1:05PM

Nancy Pelosi

Speaker Nancy Pelosi just announced that she's running for House Minority Leader.

Pelosi broke the news on Twitter, "Driven by the urgency of creating jobs & protecting #hcr, #wsr, Social Security & Medicare, I am running for Dem Leader."

(#hcr stands for health care reform, #wsr stands for Wall Street reform.)

You can read her letter to colleagues announcing her intention here.

For the last three days, gaming out whether Pelosi would make this call has become a favorite parlor game in Washington.

Starting yesterday, sources close to her floated the possibility of a run as a trial balloon, and she herself acknowledged that she was weighing the possibility. Just this morning, numerous Democratic aides gamed out what would factor into her decision.

Read more »

MN-GOV

Minnesota Sec. of State Proposes Recount Schedule For Gov. Race

Eric Kleefeld | November 5, 2010, 1:05PM

Minnesota Secretary of State Mark Ritchie (D)

Minnesota Secretary of State Mark Ritchie's (D) office has released a proposed schedule for the expected gubernatorial recount -- and the state could be cutting it close on this one.

As the Star-Tribune reports, the schedule calls for a State Canvassing Board meeting on November 23, to certify the initial election results and determine the need for any recounts. As of right now, Democratic former U.S. Sen. Mark Dayton's lead over Republican state Rep. Tom Emmer is slightly under the 0.5% margin that would trigger a mandatory hand recount.

The recount would then begin on November 29, with a deadline of December 7 for local officials to finish sorting and counting the ballots. The canvassing board would then meet on December 8-10 to sort through any disputed ballots, and then certify the results on December 14.

Read more »

Social Security

Rick Perry: Let States Secede From Social Security (VIDEO)

Evan McMorris-Santoro | November 5, 2010, 12:59PM

Freshly reelected Texas Gov. Rick Perry (R) just isn't ready to give up on the secession talk that made him a topic of conversation last year. Taking a national victory lap after his election to an unprecedented third term this week, Perry is out talking up his new plan to break up the union, kind of: It's time, he says, to let states opt out of Social Security.

Last April, Perry told some Austin tea partiers that though "there's absolutely no reason to dissolve" the union the state of Texas has been a part of for about 160 years, "if Washington continues to thumb their nose at the American people, you know, who knows what might come out of that." Texas, he suggested, could lead the charge.

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DCCC

Van Hollen Stepping Down From DCCC

Eric Kleefeld | November 5, 2010, 11:59AM

Rep. Chris Van Hollen (D-MD).

Rep Chris Van Hollen (D-MD), who headed up the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee during this past campaign cycle, has announced that he will not be returning for another two years at the helm.

The Hill reports:

"When it comes to the DCCC chairmanship, I believe in term limits," Van Hollen told liberal radio host Bill Press on Friday. "This will be the end."

Read more »

Barack Obama

60 Minutes To Obama: Have You Lost Your Mojo?

Jillian Rayfield | November 5, 2010, 11:40AM

President Obama on 60 Minutes

President Obama filmed an interview with CBS's Steve Kroft for 60 Minutes that will air this Sunday. In a clip of the interview released today, Kroft asks Obama if he's lost his "mojo," and how he accounts for the Democrats' losses on Tuesday.

Read more »

CT-Gov

Dem Up In CT-GOV, But It's Not Over Yet

Eric Kleefeld | November 5, 2010, 11:39AM

Connecticut gubernatorial candidates Tom Foley (R) and Dan Malloy (D)

The vote count in the tight Connecticut gubernatorial race seems to be winding down, with Democrat Dan Malloy the apparent winner over Republican Tom Foley -- though who knows, the litigation could be just beginning.

The key here is that the city of Bridgeport, which had a controversial poll extension as a result of ballot shortages on Election Day, took a long time to sort out its votes and get them counted. (The total does not include less than 100 votes that were cast after 8 p.m.) Those results came this morning, with Malloy winning a 17,973-4,099 margin in the heavily Democratic city. And with the city's votes now included, Malloy went from trailing his Republican opponent to leading by a statewide margin of 5,465.

Read more »

Stephen Colbert

Colbert: Could Joe Miller Be Spider-Man? (VIDEO)

Jillian Rayfield | November 5, 2010, 10:17AM

Stephen Colbert was intrigued last night by Joe Miller's campaign manager's statement that "I'm sure there are going to be two or three dozen votes for Spider-Man" among the write-in ballots, and therefore the race isn't over yet. "What?" Colbert asked. "Spider-Man was a candidate?" But he had "no online presence," Colbert added, and "you'd think that he of all people would know the importance of the web."

Although, Colbert continued, "since no one knows Spider-Man's real identity, those votes could actually be for...Joe Miller!" The proof, he said, is in Miller's campaign song, which he sang (to the tune of the Spider-Man theme song):

Joe Miller, Joe Miller, Wants to be your senator. Grows a beard, shoots a gun, Arrests the press just for fun. Look out! He'll cut your Medicare.

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Jon Stewart

The Daily Show Debates: Media Says Obama's Not 'Getting It' -- What's The 'It'? (VIDEO)

Jillian Rayfield | November 5, 2010, 10:14AM

Jon Stewart enlisted Jason Jones, Wyatt Cenac, and John Oliver last night to help him figure out what cable news pundits mean when they say President Obama's post-election press conference shows that he just "doesn't get it." Jones looked to the moment when Obama made his entrance and walked up to the podium: "Do you see 'it'? I didn't see 'it.' It's a pretty crucial moment, where he needs to show some fight. He shouldn't have strolled in, he should have rolled in -- on those sneakers with the wheels and the blinking lights on them."

Wyatt agreed: "That's what Reagan did in '82. Why? Because he had 'it.'"

John Oliver pointed to history as well: "When Taft suffered a midterm defeat in 1911, did he drag his ass to the podium like a kid going to he dentist?"

Wyatt replied: "No, Taft was one 'it'-having motherfucker." Jason agreed: "Taft wasn't fat. Those were layers of 'it.'"

Read more »

Unemployment

Unemployment Rate Remains Stuck At 9.6% As Benefits Set To Expire

Megan Carpentier | November 5, 2010, 10:04AM

An unemployed man.

The Labor Department released unemployment statistics this morning for the month of October, eliciting cheers from some quarters over the fact that private sector payrolls added 150,000 jobs and beat market expectations. But the unemployment rate remained stuck at 9.6 percent -- and a closer look at the numbers indicate that key sectors impacted by the economic downturn haven't seen the improvement many had hoped for.

And, in a sign that unemployed and semi-employed Americans are getting discouraged again, the labor force participation rate edged down in October, as did the number of Americans employed part-time for economic reasons. The number of people only marginally attached to the labor market -- those who have looked for work in the past year but not in the past month -- increased by 200,000. Furthermore, the number of long-term unemployed -- those who have spent more than 27 weeks without a job -- increased from 6.12 million to 6.2 million over the past month.

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John Boehner

Boehner Distances Himself From McConnell's Goal Of A One-Term Obama Administration

Brian Beutler | November 5, 2010, 9:38AM

Gov. Haley Barbour (R-MS), House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-OH), and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY)

House Speaker-to-be John Boehner put distance last night between himself and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, who has twice stated that a top political goal for the GOP is to make Barack Obama a one-term President.

"That's Senator McConnell's statement. And -- and his opinion. I think the American people want us to focus on their message during the election," Boehner said in an interview with ABC News.

Boehner's rhetoric has been generally milder than McConnell's since Tuesday's election. But that doesn't mean he's taking it easy on the Democrats.

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WA-SEN

Dem Patty Murray Wins WA-SEN

Eric Kleefeld | November 5, 2010, 9:02AM

Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA)

Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA), who faced a tough challenge this year from former state Senator and two-time Republican gubernatorial nominee Dino Rossi, has now won her race, after Rossi conceded defeat last night.

[TPM SLIDESHOW: Meet Your New U.S. Senators]

Aside from the Alaska Senate race, this was the last unsettled Senate contest of the cycle, and also the last one in which partisan control of the seat is up for grabs. (The Alaska Senate race is now a contest between two Republicans.) This result finalizes the Senate makeup as being 53 members of the Democratic caucus, to 47 Senators in the Republican caucus.

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AK-SEN

What Happens Next In The Alaska Senate Race?

Jillian Rayfield | November 5, 2010, 8:44AM

Joe Miller and Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK)

So now that the votes are in and Democrat Scott McAdams has dropped out, what happens next in the Alaska Senate race between Joe Miller and Sen. Lisa Murkowski?

Read more »

2010 elections

Could The GOP's 2010 Governors Wins Hurt Obama In 2012?

Eric Kleefeld | November 5, 2010, 8:34AM

President Barack Obama

Does a GOP sweep of a number of key gubernatorial races portend poorly for President Obama's reelection chances in 2012?

Overall, the Republicans picked up 11 governorships from the Democrats: Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, New Mexico, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Wisconsin and Wyoming. The GOP also gained back the Florida governorship, which had ben lost when GOP Gov. Charlie Crist quit the GOP and became an independent in order to pursue his unsuccessful Senate bid.

By comparison, the Dems only picked up California, Hawaii, Vermont, and apparent victories in Connecticut and Minnesota.

Read more »

Proposition 19

Prop 19 Burnout: Why Did Pot Legalization Fail In California?

Marc Kilstein | November 5, 2010, 8:30AM

Attorney Omar Figueroa in a medical marijuana garden in Sonoma County, California.

On Tuesday, California residents voted down Proposition 19, the state's marijuana legalization ballot initiative, by a 54%-46% margin. A few months ago, statewide polling on the initiative found that Californians were in support of the measure significantly more than they were in opposition to it. As September survey results rolled in, however, findings began to suggest a stark shift in public opinion and the California legalization narrative was flipped on its head. In the final two months leading up to election day, opposition steadily increased in the polls while support markedly dwindled.

So what happened?

[TPM SLIDESHOW: Blazed: Mexico Burns 134 Tons Of Confiscated Marijuana]

Read more »

Filibuster

In Election Week, Majority Agrees It's Time To Scrap The Filibuster

Evan McMorris-Santoro | November 5, 2010, 8:29AM

Still from "Mr. Smith Goes To Washington" (1939)

Even though they just got done creating a government in Washington where gridlock is expected to be the norm instead of the exception, voters surveyed this week are overwhelmingly opposed to the filibuster, the procedure most often used bring the Senate to grinding halt.

Exclusive results of of a new poll conducted for the Progressive Change Campaign Committee by venerable Democratic pollster PPP show 64% of voters contacted Tuesday and Wednesday said it was time to get rid of the legislative blocking maneuver used so often by Republicans since 2009. Just 23% said they'd like to preserve the practice, which President Obama has often decried and some Democrats have moved to abandon with little success.

The widespread opposition to the filibuster crosses party lines, the survey showed. Among Democrats, who saw much of their legislative agenda tied up in the Senate by Republican filibusters this year, 77% called for an end to the practice of effectively requiring a 60-vote majority to pass bills. Fifty-seven percent of Republican respondents said they opposed the filibuster, as did 61% of independents.

For PCCC's Adam Green, the survey is a signal that his group's push to end the filibuster doesn't end just because the Senate's Democratic majority shrank on Tuesday night.

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MN-GOV

Minnesota GOP And Dems Gearing Up For Recount Part II

Eric Kleefeld | November 4, 2010, 6:14PM

MN-GOV candidates Tom Emmer (R) and Mark Dayton (D)

Both sides are gearing up for a fight in the Minnesota gubernatorial recount -- the state's second consecutive statewide recount in two election cycles -- where Democratic former U.S. Sen. Mark Dayton leads Republican state Rep. Tom Emmer by just under 9,000 votes out of over two million.

As the Star Tribune reports, the state Republican Party is quickly working to mobilize its activist base:

The party sent out an e-mail Thursday, asking voters to contact it if they encountered or saw any irregularities at their polling places on Tuesday.

According to the party, such irregularities include voting machine malfunctions, unsecured ballots or voter intimidation.

The morning after the election, state GOP chairman Tony Sutton signaled the party's approach this time, saying "we are not going to get rolled this time."

Read more »

Twitter

Researchers Uncover Political Astroturfing On Twitter

Eric Lach | November 4, 2010, 5:44PM

Researchers at Indiana University are looking into how political groups can manipulate Twitter to push their message under the appearance of grassroots activity, the Technology Review reports.

Read more »

Barack Obama

Freak Out! Right Wingers Howl Over Obama's India Trip (VIDEO)

Evan McMorris-Santoro | November 4, 2010, 5:38PM

President Barack Obama, with Rush Limbaugh, Sean Hannity, and Glenn Beck inset.

As you may have heard, President Obama will travel to India on Saturday, part of an overseas diplomatic mission that will put the president face-to-face with the leaders of a key strategic and trade partner, not to mention a regional nuclear power. For Obama, the India visit is a chance to get all presidential after his recent "shellacking." For India, it's a change to further a relationship mutually beneficial to both nations. For the right wing, it's a one-way ticket to Freakoutville.

Here's the right-wing India trip meme: Obama is spending more money -- $200 million per day -- than the nation spends daily on the war in Afghanistan, in order to fly something like one million planes full of his closest friends to a multi-day bacchanal on the steps of the Taj Mahal, all paid for by you, the taxypayer. Or something.

As Eric Lach reported earlier today, the meme is just about 100% garbage, according to the White House. "No basis in reality" was the way Deputy White House Press Secretary Josh Earnest described it.

But that hasn't stopped the engines of right-wing panic from spooling up to 11 over what is, basically, a totally normal -- though inarguably incredibly expensive -- part of being President.

Read more »

IL-GOV

AP: Dem Pat Quinn Wins IL-GOV Race

Eric Kleefeld | November 4, 2010, 5:14PM

Gov. Pat Quinn (D-IL)

The Associated Press has projected incumbent Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn as the winner in Illinois, a major upset result as he apparently defeats Republican state Sen. Bill Brady:

An AP analysis of uncounted votes from absentee and other ballots shows state Sen. Bill Brady won't be able to overcome the just more than 19,400-vote lead Quinn holds with 100 percent of precincts reporting Thursday.

Brady has not yet conceded the race, saying earlier that he wants all remaining votes, such as military absentee votes, to be counted.

Read more »

Mitch McConnell

The Shellacked And The Furious: Obama Gets No Love From McConnell (VIDEO)

Brian Beutler and Clayton Ashley | November 4, 2010, 4:15PM

Yesterday, a damaged and contrite Barack Obama held a White House press conference and took ownership of Tuesday's devastating election results. With the exception of a handful of issues, Obama extended a cooperative hand to the newly emboldened GOP, and suggested a willingness to compromise on everything from tax cuts to energy policy to provisions of his health care law.

Today, at the conservative Heritage Foundation, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell offered his rejoinder. And the contrast couldn't be more stark: For just about every entreaty Obama made, McConnell just said no.

Read more »

Nancy Pelosi

Shuler Now Says He'll Run Against Pelosi For Minority Leader

Brian Beutler | November 4, 2010, 4:10PM

Rep. Heath Shuler (D-NC)

Speaker Nancy Pelosi hasn't announced whether she'll retire, continue to serve in Congress, or even seek a leadership role in the next Congress, but already one of the House's most conservative members is trying to undercut her. Rep. Heath Shuler (D-NC), who dodged the shellacking on Tuesday, says if Pelosi makes a play to be Minority Leader, he'll run against her.

"If there's not a viable alternative -- like I said all along -- I can go recruit moderate Members to run in swing districts," Shuler said. "In that situation, I could do it better than she could, and that's what it's going to take. It's going to take moderate candidates to win back those seats."

Read more »

Barack Obama

McConnell Praises Tea Party, Opposes Their Goal Of Earmark Elimination

Brian Beutler | November 4, 2010, 3:04PM

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY)

In a speech at the conservative Heritage Foundation this morning, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell had kind words for Tea Party activists, who energized the GOP base but whose candidates likely cost Republicans control of the Senate. At the same time, though, he threw cold water on one of the movement's top goals -- an elimination of earmarks -- by noting that without Congressional input, President Obama will get to make most decisions on how federal money gets spent.

"Tea Party activists will continue to energize our party and challenge us to follow through on our commitments," McConnell said.

The Tea Party's top ally in the Senate is Jim DeMint (R-SC), who's also McConnell's main rival within the GOP caucus. DeMint plans to put the Republican conference on the spot about an earmark moratorium as soon as Congress returns. DeMint told the National Journal, "The first test vote will probably be as soon as we get back later in November: Will Republicans vote to ban earmarks ... to help a moratorium on earmarks? Because that's the rule change I'm going to bring forward and I think we'll see right away in the House and in the Senate whether or not Republicans are serious about what they ran on."

And yesterday, President Obama said he'd be happy to work with Republicans on such an initiative: "That's something I think we can -- we can work on together."

But McConnell says no way.

Read more »

IL-GOV

Dem Quinn's Lead Grows In IL-GOV

Eric Kleefeld | November 4, 2010, 2:53PM

Bill Brady (R) and Gov. Pat Quinn (D-IL)

The Illinois gubernatorial race isn't completely over -- but it appears to be getting there, with incumbent Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn expanding his narrow lead against Republican state Sen. Bill Brady.

The Chicago Tribune reports, Quinn led on election night by the tiny margin of 8,000 votes. The race then became a contest of sorts between the under-counted areas, which overall would favor Quinn, versus absentee ballots that might help Brady.

So far, Quinn's lead has grown to 20,000 votes.

Read more »

WA-SEN

Dem Patty Murray Expands Narrow Vote Lead In WA-SEN

Eric Kleefeld | November 4, 2010, 1:56PM

WA-SEN candidates Sen. Patty Murray (D) and Dino Rossi (R)

Although there is not yet a final result int he Washington Senate race, where incumbent Democrat Patty Murray faced a strong challenge from former state Senator and two-time gubernatorial nominee Dino Rossi, the latest numbers can probably make Democrats rest easier.

As the Seattle Times reports, additional vote totals last night from King County (Seattle) and elsewhere expanded Murray's raw-vote lead from 14,000 up to more than 27,000.

The Republican Rossi has noted that hundreds of thousands of votes still haven't been counted, and thus say that the race is too close to call. However, analysis at the Times appears to indicate that he would have a tough time pulling ahead:

Read more »

Net Neutrality

95 Candidates Who Pledged Support For Net Neutrality Lost On Tuesday

Jillian Rayfield | November 4, 2010, 1:27PM

Rep. Joe Sestak (D-PA)

The FCC's push for Net Neutrality legislation suffered another setback on Tuesday, after 95 of the candidates who pledged their support for it lost their elections.

Read more »

2012 elections

GOP Pollster On 2012: Romney's In Trouble, Obama Primary Challenge 'Likely'

Evan McMorris-Santoro | November 4, 2010, 12:30PM

Mitt Romney

It's hard to say who's going to have a tougher 2012, Republican pollster Bill McInturff says. With the rise of the tea party Tuesday night, the man who should be in the best position for for the Republican nomination -- former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney -- is probably now on the outside looking in. Meanwhile, President Obama, who has failed to appease the left, according to McInturff, is in prime position for an embarrassing and weakening primary challenge from his own party.

Tuesday's results blew up the classic GOP nomination model, McInturff told reporters this morning at a breakfast sponsored by the Christian Science Monitor. A partner in the well-respected Public Opinion Strategies firm, which conducts polls for numerous Republican candidates as well as national media outlets like NBC News and the Wall Street Journal, McInturff said the numbers he's been crunching show that Republican primary voters are less interested in throwing their support behind "the next guy in line," as they may have been in the past.

That's bad news for Romney. And potentially good news for Sarah Palin and Newt Gingrich, who've got tea on their side.

Read more »

AK-SEN

Dem McAdams Concedes In Alaska Senate Race

Jillian Rayfield | November 4, 2010, 12:13PM

Scott McAdams (D)

Democrat Scott McAdams has conceded in the Alaska Senate race, leaving just Republicans Joe Miller and Sen. Lisa Murkowski awaiting the results of the write-in ballot count.

According to the Alaska Dispatch, McAdams called write-in candidate Murkowski yesterday to concede, and then gave a final press conference to reporters.

"We left everything out on the field," he said. "We ran out of time."

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Michele Bachmann

Bachmann Outraged Over Made Up Cost Of Obama's India Trip (VIDEO)

Eric Lach | November 4, 2010, 12:10PM

Anderson Cooper and Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN)

Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN) was on CNN last night, and host Anderson Cooper pressed her to get specific about what programs she would cut to reduce the deficit.

"Republican Paul Ryan has suggested sharp cuts in Medicare and Social Security. Are you willing to make cuts there?" Cooper asked. But Bachmann wasn't initially interested in discussing Medicare and Social Security. Instead, she responded to Cooper by arguing about a much more pressing matter: the cost of President Obama's upcoming trip to India.

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2012 elections

CNN Poll: Obama Trails Mitt And Huck, Leads Gingrich And Palin

Eric Kleefeld | November 4, 2010, 10:59AM

Fmr. Governors Mitt Romney (R-MA), Mike Huckabee (R-AR), and Sarah Palin (R-AK), and Fmr. Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich (R-GA)

A newly-released CNN poll, conducted a few days before this past midterm election, shows President Obama in for a competitive race in 2012, with him trailing two potential Republican candidates and leading two others among registered voters.

The numbers:

• Mike Huckabee leads Obama by 52%-44%. In the previous CNN poll from April, Obama led Huckabee by 54%-45%.

• Mitt Romney leads Obama by 50%-45%. In the previous CNN poll from April, Obama led Romney by 53%-45%.

• Obama edges out Newt Gingrich by 49%-47%. In the previous CNN poll from April, Obama led Gingrich by 55%-43%.

• Obama leads Sarah Palin by 52%-44%. In the previous CNN poll from April, Obama led Palin by 55%-42%.

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Government Shutdown

PA Sen.-Elect Pat Toomey Squirms When Grilled On Coming Debt Vote (VIDEO)

Brian Beutler | November 4, 2010, 10:45AM

Soon after the next Congress is sworn in, members will face their first major test: can they agree to increase the nation's debt ceiling, or will they refuse to do it and force either a government shut-down or a government default on our existing debt.

Republicans are already threatening to attach major strings to that legislation -- but more on that later. Suffice it to say: the consequences of a default or a shut-down would be dramatic.

Today, though, one of Tuesday night's big Republican winners wouldn't commit to forcing a showdown with President Obama on the debt ceiling -- at least not with the fierceness conservatives would like to see.

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Stephen Colbert

Colbert On Sharron Angle's Loss: Now We'll Never Find Out What Her Positions Are (VIDEO)

Jillian Rayfield | November 4, 2010, 10:36AM

Stephen Colbert said he is "devastated" about Republican Sharron Angle's loss in Nevada. She was "so close to giving us all the answers," he said. And "now we'll never find out what her positions were."

Angle told a reporter last week that she'd be happy to answer questions "when I'm the senator."

"That was her whole allure," he added. "The mystery, the suspense. She was like a Dan Brown novel, but with even more historical inaccuracies."

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OR-GOV

Dem Kitzhaber Wins OR-GOV, GOPer Chris Dudley Concedes

Eric Kleefeld | November 4, 2010, 10:23AM

Gov.-elect John Kitzhaber (D-OR)

The Oregon gubernatorial race, one of the tightest in the country, came to an end last night with Democratic former Gov. John Kitzhaber narrowly defeating former pro basketball player Chris Dudley.

Dudley led for most of the vote count, but many uncounted ballots remained in the Democratic stronghold of Multnomah County (Portland and its surrounding area). The Oregonian, the state's largest newspaper and home to some of the top experts at interpreting returns under the state's mail-in voting system, called the race for Kitzhaber as those votes came in. Kitzhaber eventually did in fact take the lead, and Dudley conceded.

[TPM SLIDESHOW: Meet Your New Governors]

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Mitch McConnell

McConnell: Defeat Obama With Repeated Attacks On Health Care

Brian Beutler | November 4, 2010, 9:50AM

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY)

For the next two years, while Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell tries to make Barack Obama a one-term president, he and his counterparts in the House will force repeated votes on repealing and starving the White House's signature accomplishments.

At a Heritage Foundation speech later this morning, McConnell will reiterate his desire to see Obama unseated in 2012, and will pull back the veil on the next two years, which are poised to be mired in political theatrics and policy gridlock.

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CO-SEN

Republican Ken Buck Concedes Colorado Senate Race

Eric Lach | November 4, 2010, 9:30AM

Ken Buck

Republican Ken Buck has conceded the Colorado Senate race, ending a close contest that many expected him to win, and clearing the way for Sen. Michael Bennet to return to Washington, D.C. for a full term.

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Allen West

The Crazy Class Of 2010: Meet The New GOP Stars

Eric Kleefeld | November 4, 2010, 8:38AM

Reps.-elect Allen West (R-FL), Vicky Hartzler (R-MO), Renee Ellmers (R-NC), Tim Walberg (R-MI)

With the 60-odd gains for the House Republicans, let's take a special look at a particular brand of Republicans, whose ranks have potentially been enlarged tonight: The Crazy Caucus, those members of Congress who become especially well known for saying and doing things that are not just very conservative, not just right-wing...but really out there.

[TPM SLIDESHOW: Meet Your New U.S. Senators]

Current folks that we've kept track of have included Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN), Rep. Steve King (R-IA), and Rep. Paul Broun (R-GA). It can be hard, looking at a crop of 60 incoming freshmen, to know exactly who will or won't distinguish themselves in this area. But in particular, four GOP pickups offer a lot of promise.

Other folks could very well pop up in the next two years, but these four bear close watching.

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Nancy Pelosi

Pelosi Tells Diane Sawyer: No Regrets, No Decisions (VIDEO)

Brian Beutler | November 3, 2010, 6:54PM

Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi

In an exclusive interview with ABC News this evening, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi broke silence about the devastating losses her caucus suffered in Tuesday's midterm. Fighting back tears at times, Pelosi called the results "disappointing," but said she's made no decisions about what's next for her.

"I'll have a conversation with my caucus, I'll have a conversation with my family, and pray over it, and decide how to go forward," she said. "Today isn't that day."

Pelosi described the outcome as you'd expect: "a very disappointing result...a tough loss."

In a conversation with President Obama after it was clear the House was lost, the two "expressed pride in the work that we had done," she said, and has "no regrets," about how it all went down.

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Tea Party

Tea Party Has Arrived: Predictable Infighting Marks The Movement's Big Day

Evan McMorris-Santoro | November 3, 2010, 5:35PM

At a tea party in Kerrville, Texas

The tea party is now officially part of the legitimate political scene. How do we know? After the movement's electoral victories last night, the bickering that goes with political victory has begun. As the various tea party groups try to read the tea leaves from last night, the infighting that marked marked the movement's emergence onto the scene has spilled over into the post-election euphoria.

First, let's take a look at how well the tea party candidates fared last night. Though many of their high-profile Senate nominees -- Sharron Angle in Nevada, Joe Miller in Alaska, Ken Buck in Colorado and Christine O'Donnell in Delaware -- appear to have come up short in the final tally, the tea party has a lot to be proud of. Kentucky's Senator-elect, Rand Paul, is about as tea party as they come and will likely serve as a vocal mouthpiece for the movement in the upper chamber of Congress.

By the numbers, though, the tea party did not do that well. NBC News crunched the data and found that off the dozens and dozens of tea party candidates on ballots last night, about 60% of them lost. Still, with the GOP still running scared from from the tea party, even the 32% of candidates that made it through will be a potent force in the new Republican majority in the House.

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Barack Obama

Obama To Negotiate With GOP On Bush Tax Cut Compromise

Brian Beutler | November 3, 2010, 4:49PM

President Barack Obama

At his post-shellacking press conference this afternoon, President Obama said that he'll sit down with Democratic and Republican congressional leaders before the end of the year to reach a compromise on extending the Bush tax cuts.

"[M]y goal is to sit down with Speaker-elect Boehner and Mitch McConnell and Harry and Nancy sometime in the next few weeks and see where we can move forward in a way that, first of all, does no harm; that extends those tax cuts that are very important for middle-class families; also extends those provisions that are important to encourage businesses to invest, and provide businesses some certainty over the next year or two," Obama said. "And how that negotiation works itself out I think is too early to say. But this is going to be one of my top priorities, and my hope is, is that given we all have an interest in growing the economy and encouraging job growth, that we're not going to play brinksmanship but instead we're going to act responsibly."

A quick primer:

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CO-SEN

AP Declares Sen. Bennet The Winner In Colorado

Eric Lach | November 3, 2010, 4:31PM

Senator Michael Bennet (D-CO)

The AP has declared Sen. Michael Bennet the winner of the Colorado Senate race, hours after Bennet held a victory press conference. The Denver Post and 9News had previously called the race for the Democrat.

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Michele Bachmann

Infighting! Bachmann To Run For House Leadership

Brian Beutler | November 3, 2010, 3:24PM

Michele Bachmann

Conservative Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN) -- founder of the Tea Party Caucus -- will make a bid to be part of House leadership next Congress, likely touching off a tough intra-GOP battle for influence over the new majority.

In a message to her supporters on Facebook, Bachmann writes, "I am pleased to announce that I am running for Chairman of the House Republican Conference! Constitutional Conservatives deserve a loud and clear voice in leadership!"

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Barack Obama

White House Talking Points Suggest Veto Of Health Care Repeal

Brian Beutler | November 3, 2010, 2:51PM

President Barack Obama

In his press conference this morning, President Obama said he'd be willing to tweak and improve his signature initiatives, particularly health care reform. But in new talking points sent our way, the White House makes clear that Obama will veto any attempt to repeal those accomplishments.

It would be a mistake to spend the next two years re-fighting the political battles of the last two years. The President is proud of the progress we have made for average Americans - from health care reform, to financial reform and reforms to our education system. While he has always made it clear that he is open to ideas from both sides of the aisle to improve these important new laws, he will not accept attempts to repeal or weaken them.

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2010 elections

Obama: Last Night Was A 'Shellacking' (VIDEO)

Jillian Rayfield | November 3, 2010, 2:48PM

President Obama gave a press conference today on last night's elections results, and said he learned some important lessons from the outcome. "I'm not recommending for future presidents that they take a shellacking like I did last night," he said, because "there are easier ways to learn these lessons."

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2010 elections

Here We Go...: 2010's Recounts, Write-Ins And Disputed Elections

Eric Kleefeld | November 3, 2010, 2:42PM

Joe Miller and Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK)

Here's a quick update on the statewide races that may or may not be seeing recounts, election contests, graphology examinations, Brooks Brothers riots, etc.:

• In the Alaska Senate race, it's not a recount so much as a protracted and unusual vote count -- it could take weeks to sort through the 41% of ballots that were write-in votes, to determine how many them constitute valid, legal votes for incumbent GOP Sen. Lisa Murkowsi against Republican nominee Joe Miller.

• In the Connecticut gubernatorial race, Secretary of State Susan Bysiewicz (D) has declared that Democrat Dan Malloy will win the race, without a recount. Republican Tom Foley is not conceding, maintaining that his campaign's internal numbers have them on track for a 2,000-vote win.

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Michael Steele

Michael Steele Feeling A Little Better After Last Night

Evan McMorris-Santoro | November 3, 2010, 1:40PM

RNC chairman Michael Steele

Embattled RNC Chair Michael Steele told me this morning that last night's election results should settle a few controversies about his leadership position. But he admitted his rocky tenure has been a tough one for many establishment types to swallow, and he wouldn't commit to running for a second term as chair of the RNC.

"I'm not a conventional player, I speak my mind and I learned very quickly in this job that's a very dangerous thing to do," Steele told me on a conference call with reporters to talk about the GOP's sweeping wins last night. Steele said he has learned "to be a little more careful, a little more measured, a little more sensitive if you will."

"The learning curve was steep and quick, but I got it," Steele said.

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MN-GOV

Pawlenty: 'I Will Continue To Serve As Governor' In Case Of MN Recount

Eric Kleefeld | November 3, 2010, 1:34PM

Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R-MN)

The possible gubernatorial recount in Minnesota, where Democratic former U.S. Sen. Mark Dayton leads Republican state Rep. Tom Emmer by just over 9,000 votes, has another possible ramification. It is now possible that if the process were to drag on into January, the current GOP Gov. Tim Pawlenty, a potential Republican presidential candidate, could stay on as governor for an extra while.

As you might recall, the legal processes in Minnesota forbid the certifying of an election result until the disputes have truly been resolved in the state courts. In the recount of the 2008 Senate election, this meant that the seating of Democratic Sen. Al Franken was delayed until all the way into July 2009. But while a Senate seat can go vacant and American governance continues, what would happen to the executive branch of the state in case of an election dispute?

As the Star Tribune reports, the relevant language in the state constitution declares: "The term of office for the governor and lieutenant governor is four years and until a successor is chosen and qualified."

This would would appear to mean that Pawlenty would remain in office as the current governor, if a recount and any potential legal issues were to continue -- and Pawlenty has now issued a statement indicating that he would do exactly that.

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CO-SEN

Dem Sen. Bennet Declares Victory in Colorado

Eric Lach | November 3, 2010, 1:25PM

Michael Bennet

There are still votes to count, and the tally remains close. But Sen. Michael Bennet is declaring victory over Republican Ken Buck in the Colorado Senate race.

With 2,884 of 3,246 precincts reporting, Bennet leads 47.72%-46.81%. The Denver Post and 9News have both declared Bennet the winner, though the Post notes that if the final vote totals are within .5% of each other, an automatic recount will be required.

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Mitch McConnell

McConnell: Dems Have Already Learned The Wrong Lessons From Midterm Romp

Brian Beutler | November 3, 2010, 12:36PM

Sen. Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY)

At a GOP press conference on Capitol Hill this morning, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell wasted no time in continuing his attack on the Democratic party by accusing members of missing the message of last night's election -- less than 24 hours after polls closed.

"Listening to what they've had to say this morning, they may have missed the message," McConnell warned. "I get the impression that their view is that we haven't cooperated enough. I think what the American people were saying yesterday is they appreciated us saying 'no' to things that the American people indicated that they were not in agreement with."

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Rudy Giuliani

Giuliani: Palin's Got 'A Hell Of A Lot More Qualifications' Than Obama Did

Jillian Rayfield | November 3, 2010, 12:11PM

Fmr. New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R) and Fmr. Alaska Governor Sarah Palin (R)

Rudy Giuliani thinks Sarah Palin should run for President in 2012: "She's got a hell of a lot more qualifications than Barack Obama had when he ran for President."

"Let her run," he said on The View today. "If she's as bad as you think, she'll lose. If she can really make her case, she will win."

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NRCC

NRCC: We're Going To Keep Our Big Gains In McCain Districts

Eric Kleefeld | November 3, 2010, 11:50AM

Sen. John McCain (R-AZ)

On a conference call with reporters just now, National Republican Congressional Committee Executive Director Guy Harrison touted the strength and extent of the party's big House victories last night -- and predicted that the GOP would have staying power in many of the conservative districts they picked up.

"When you really look at this at the start, this is exactly what we said the opportunity was. We had 48 races where McCain won, and a Democrat was sitting in that seat," said Harrison. "We have only 10 that survived that, and those will be the first on our pecking order next cycle."

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2010 elections

On A Knife-Edge: Several Statehouses Still Up For Grabs

Eric Kleefeld | November 3, 2010, 11:09AM

IL Gov. Pat Quinn (D)

Here is the latest on some key gubernatorial races, which were not resolved as of last night:

• In Connecticut, where Republican Gov. Jodi Rell was not seeking re-election, Republican Tom Foley and Democrat Dan Malloy have been locked in a tight race. As of this moment, with 92% of precincts reporting, Malloy now leads by about 1,600 votes out of over a million cast.

As the Hartford Courant reports, there could be some litigation over a two-hour voting extension that a judge ordered yesterday in some precincts in Bridgeport, due to an early ballot shortage:

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Mike Pence

Pence To Step Down From GOP Leadership -- Hints At Run For Governor

Brian Beutler | November 3, 2010, 10:47AM

Representative Mike Pence (R-IN) with GOP leaders

Rep. Mike Pence (R-IN) will step down from his position as the number three Republican in the House.

In a letter to colleagues this morning, Pence informed his colleagues that he won't seek re-election to his leadership post next Congress, hinting that he may soon be unable to fulfill his leadership duties as he prepares a run for Indiana governor.

"As we consider new opportunities to serve Indiana and our nation in the years ahead, I have come to realize that it may not be possible to complete an entire term as Conference Chairman," Pence wrote. "As such, I think it would be more appropriate for me to step aside now, especially since there are other talented men and women in our Conference who could do the job just as well or better."

Pence's ambitions outside of Congress are well known. He's believed to be considering a run for governor of Indiana, and possibly the presidency. As I reported last week, Rep. Jeb Hensarling (R-TX) is a top candidate to replace Pence as conference chair. You can read the entire letter below the fold.

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Christine O'Donnell

O'Donnell: It's The GOP's Fault I Lost (VIDEO)

Jillian Rayfield | November 3, 2010, 10:41AM

Christine O'Donnell has wasted no time finding a scapegoat for her loss last night to Democrat Chris Coons in Delaware's Senate Race -- and it's the establishment GOP that didn't give her enough support. Calling it "Republican cannibalism," O'Donnell said that the "division" in the Republican Party "that remained even after the primary I think did hurt us."

She added that it also didn't help that the "Delaware GOP leadership, in their attempt to win the primary, they filed a fake FEC complaint against us that was totally baseless," but they never withdrew it.

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FL-GOV

Republican Rick Scott Wins Close FL-GOV Race

Evan McMorris-Santoro | November 3, 2010, 10:36AM

Rick Scott

In the end money did not buy Rick Scott love. But it did buy him the Florida governor's mansion. After an extremely nasty campaign fueled by his own considerable wealth, Scott has felled yet another establishment politician. He declared victory this morning, and Democrat Alex Sink is on TV conceding right now.

With 6,841 of 6,881 precincts reporting, Scott leads 48.8%-47.8%.

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Sharron Angle

Sharron Angle Boasts Of Raising Millions From Out Of State Donors (VIDEO)

Brian Beutler | November 3, 2010, 9:50AM

Nevada Senate candidate Sharron Angle (R)

Most politicians try to distance themselves from money filtering into their races from out-of-state, or out-of-district. But in her concession speech last night, Sharron Angle actually boasted that a big chunk of her $14 million haul last quarter came from donors whom she wouldn't even have been representing.

"We were able to inspire not only Nevadans, but a country," Angle said. "Think of this. In the last quarter, we raised $14.3 million. Eighty percent of that came from out of our state. That means that America was wanting, was desperate, to help us."

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MN-GOV

Another Minnesota Recount??? Gov Race Goes Down To The Wire

Eric Kleefeld | November 3, 2010, 9:18AM

MN-GOV candidates Tom Emmer (R) and Mark Dayton (D)

Here we go again...

It looks like Minnesota could be set for another statewide recount, just two years after the highly contentious Senate race that pitted incumbent Republican Sen. Norm Coleman against Democratic activist and former comedian Al Franken. As we all know, Franken ultimately prevailed by a 312-vote margin, reversing a similarly narrow Coleman lead at the start of the recount -- but not after an extended legal battle that delayed Franken's seating all the way into July of 2009.

As the Star Tribune reports, Democratic former U.S. Sen. Mark Dayton now leads Republican state Rep. Tom Emmer by 0.43%, a raw-vote lead of about 9,000, with 20 precincts left to count. This is below a margin of 0.5%, which under state law would trigger an automatic hand recount.

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2010 elections

Broad And Deep: A Quick Look The GOP's Big Victory In The House

Brian Beutler | November 3, 2010, 8:58AM

House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-OH) with members of the GOP leadership

The midwest was the key to the GOP's 60-plus seat victory in the House of Representatives. Where Democrats were able to stave off losses in the west and northeast and even parts of the south, they were creamed by upwards of two dozen seats in states like Ohio, Wisconsin, and Minnesota, where the recession has taken a brutal toll.

Dems had a significant majority going in to yesterday's election, so the greatest losses were suffered by junior members. Most of them were fully expected. But when you lose this many seats, invariably some surprises get swept along with the tide.

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2010 elections

No Calls In AK, CO And WA: The Latest On The Senate Numbers

Eric Kleefeld | November 3, 2010, 8:49AM

Republican candidate for the U.S. Senate race in Colorado Ken Buck and Sen. Michael Bennet (D-CO)

With Harry Reid's victory in Nevada, Democrats have kept control of the Senate. But how narrow will their majority be? As things stand now, Democrats have 49 seats, Republicans 46, and two independents who caucus with the Dems. Let's take a look at the three outstanding Senate results:

• In Alaska, the Anchorage Daily News reports, things are looking good for incumbent Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski in her write-in bid against Tea Party-backed (and Sarah Palin-backed) attorney Joe Miller -- but it's far from over. The total write-in votes lead Miller by a margin of 41%-34%. This could now go to court over the scrutinizing of all those write-in ballots, which must be sorted to find how well the voter spelled out "Lisa Murkowski," and determining what ranges of error are permissible:

Alaska's computerized voting system shows how many voters filled in the oval for a write-in candidate but not the actual name the voter wrote in. The write-in ballots are only opened to look at the name if there are more of them than votes for the leading candidate, or if the number of write-in ballots is within .5 percent of the frontrunner.

That count would begin Nov. 18 and be expected to last three days. The campaigns have been getting ready for the court challenges over "voter intent" that would be expected to follow. Minor misspellings are probably OK but simply writing "Lisa M,"; for example, could be a problem.

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AK-SEN

Good News For Murkowski Means Long Nights For Alaska

Evan McMorris-Santoro | November 3, 2010, 2:40AM

Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK)

Early results from the hotly-contested Alaska Senate race show "write-in" leading the results with close to 40% of the total counted. That's good news for Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R), who banked on a write-in campaign to return her to the Senate after she lost the GOP nomination to tea partier Joe Miller.

But the result is less good news for political junkies, who -- due to the rules in Alaska -- will have to wait an extremely long time to find out who actually won the race as state officials begin counting all those write-in ballots.

As the Anchorage Daily News reports, the results as they stand now mean "it won't be clear for weeks at least how many wrote in Murkowski's name, and how many did it properly enough to be counted."

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Harry Reid

Harry Reid: 'Difficult Is Not Synonymous With Impossible'

Megan Carpentier | November 3, 2010, 2:07AM

Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV)

Sen. Harry Reid took the stage at his raucous victory party to thank his wife, his family and all his supporters for not giving up on him. He said his victory represented a repudiation of black-and-white ideology -- presumably represented by his opponent Sharron Angle "It's not about us versus them," he said. "It's about every Nevadan working together."

But Reid acknowledged that his victory wasn't the end of his fighting days.

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Carl Paladino

Bat-Wielding Paladino Concedes: 'You Have Not Heard The Last Of Carl Paladino' (VIDEO)

Jillian Rayfield | November 3, 2010, 1:12AM

In his concession speech tonight, failed New York Governor candidate Carl Paladino resorted to his old "take a baseball bat to Albany" metaphor, by whipping out a baseball bat and saying he has a message for Democrat Andrew Cuomo: "As our Governor, you can grab this handle and bring the people with you to Albany. Or you can leave it untouched, and run the risk of having it wielded against you. Because make no mistake, you have not heard the last of Carl Paladino."

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Jon Stewart

Jon Stewart: Tonight We Learned It's Better To Support Prostitutes Than Social Security (VIDEO)

Jillian Rayfield | November 3, 2010, 1:07AM

Jon Stewart was covering the election live tonight, and he was a little surprised that Republican Sen. David Vitter "has absolutely destroyed his challenger by going out with hookers. So really what is the message we're sending America tonight? It is better, I think, to go see prostitutes than in fact to believe Social Security is a right."

Stewart was also happy for New York Governor candidate Carl Paladino: "Carl Paladino's campaign to not be elected governor has succeeded. Andrew Cuomo is the victor. Paladino, of course, tried very hard not to be Governor. He must be feeling very pleased tonight."

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2010 elections

Democrats Retain Control Of The Senate

Evan McMorris-Santoro | November 3, 2010, 12:50AM

Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV)

With 51 Senate seats, Democrats have retained their majority in the United States Senate, setting the stage for a divided Congress that will likely define the next two years of American politics.

As it stands now, Republicans have 46 seats in the Senate, and Democrats have 51. Senate races in Colorado, Washington and Alaska are still up in the air. The new Senate breakdown is at least 49 Democrats, 46 Republicans and 2 Independents who caucus with the Dems.

The new Senate, when sworn in January, will be missing some big names observers have been used to hearing, including Arlen Specter (D-PA), Evan Bayh (D-IN), Byron Dorgan (D-ND), Bob Bennett (R-UT) and Jim Bunning (R-KY), all of whom either retired or were defeated by primary opponents.

In the end, Democrats lost President Obama's old Senate seat but kept Vice President Biden's. Losing Senators like Russ Feingold (WI) and Blanche Lincoln (AR) will change the dynamics for the party caucus quite a bit. But Democrats can hang their hats on caucus leader Harry Reid's win in his home state of Nevada, a race that no one thought he had locked up.

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Sharron Angle

Harry Reid Defeats Sharron Angle

Brian Beutler | November 3, 2010, 12:43AM

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV)

In most election years, the fact that Harry Reid beat a far right political naif like Sharron Angle wouldn't be big news. But this year its among the biggest and happiest for Democrats all night.

With both MSNBC and Fox calling the race in Reid's favor by shortly after 12:30 a.m. ET, Reid was beating Angle 51 percent to 44 percent with less than half the precincts reporting and the results trending in his favor.

Reid was not supposed to win this election. His approval ratings are terrible in Nevada, where unemployment and foreclosure rates are among the highest in the country. And as the face of the Senate Democrats, his constituents rightly hold him accountable for unpopular Democratic policies that have been unable to prevent economic depression in his state.

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2010 elections

Defeated Dems Call It A Night

Brian Beutler | November 3, 2010, 12:30AM

House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer, D-Md., House Education Chairman George Miller, D-Calif., House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., House Transportation Chairman James L. Oberstar, D-Minn., and House Appropriations Chairman David R. Obey, D-Wis., during a news conference.

Democrats are closing up shop, both at DNC headquarters and at their party ("party") at the Liaison hotel. No dog and pony show. No speeches.

That difficult task will be left to President Obama, who will speak from the White House tomorrow morning.

Numerous Democrats who worked on this campaign have described the night -- particularly from the point of view of House races -- as a bloodbath. There's no way to spin that at an election night party. So they're not going to try.

2010 elections

Boehner Cries, GOP Cheers: GOP Claims Victory In The House (VIDEO)

Evan McMorris-Santoro | November 3, 2010, 12:26AM

John Boehner

NRCC ELECTIONS HQ -- The next Speaker of the House is one emotional dude. As he celebrated the end of Democratic rule in the lower house of Congress with several hundred friends here in downtown Washington, John Boehner broke down and cried while the crowd chanted "USA! USA!"

"I've spent my life trying to chase the American dream," Boehner said, his voice cracking. He went on to espouse the virtues of capitalism and small business ownership in the way that you'd expect from the man who just led the Republican Party back from the political wilderness. Except with more tears.

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IL-SEN

Mark Kirk Wins Obama's Old Senate Seat For The GOP

Eric Lach | November 3, 2010, 12:25AM

Mark Kirk

Republican Rep. Mark Kirk was won the Illinois Senate race over Alexi Giannoulias, and snatched President Obama's old seat away from the Democrats.

With 10,838 of 11,209 precincts reporting, Kirk leads Giannoulias 49.56%-47.15%. The AP and MSNBC have called the race for Kirk.

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Michele Bachmann

Chris Matthews To Bachmann: Did Someone Hypnotize You? (VIDEO)

Jillian Rayfield | November 3, 2010, 12:17AM

Well this was a bizarre interview:

Chris Matthews talked to Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN) on MSNBC tonight, and got a bit frustrated when she wouldn't answer his questions: "Congresswoman Bachmann -- are you hypnotized tonight? Has someone hypnotized you? Because no matter what I ask you, you give the same answer. Are you hypnotized, has someone put you under a trance tonight?

Bachmann replied: "I think the American people are the ones that finally are speaking tonight. We're coming out of our trance, really we're coming out of our nightmare. I think that people are thrilled tonight. I imagine that thrill is probably not quite so tingly on your leg anymore."

Read more »

PA-SEN

Comeback Kid: GOPer Pat Toomey Finally Gets To The Senate

Evan McMorris-Santoro | November 3, 2010, 12:10AM

Former Rep. Pat Toomey (R-PA)

Pennsylvania voters chose Republican Pat Toomey to take over the Senate seat being vacated by Sen. Arlen Specter (D) tonight.

This is a storyline that was supposed to play out for Toomey six years ago, when the conservative former Congressman challenged the moderate Specter in the 2004 GOP primary and lost.

A lot has changed in those six years, most of it tipping the balance of things in Toomey's direction. His fringy conservative fiscal politics -- Toomey is a former head of the Club For Growth -- have become GOP mantra with the rise of the tea party, and the shift rightward for his party forced Specter to change parties and become a Democrat. Specter's story ended, of course, with a successful primary challenge from the left mounted by Rep. Joe Sestak, the man Toomey defeated tonight.

Toomey now heads into a Senate caucus seemingly read to adopt his hardcore conservative fiscal views and equally right-leaning social policy agenda. Like Toomey, many of the incoming class of freshman Republican Senators have flirted with the idea of privatizing Social Security, and suggested the best way to reform the nation's health care problems is to undo all the reforming the last Congress just got done with.

Read more »

OH-GOV

Republican Kasich Knocks Off Dem Strickland In OH-GOV

Evan McMorris-Santoro | November 3, 2010, 12:03AM

John Kasich

Breaking: a strong conservative has defeated a Democratic incumbent in a swing state with high unemployment. According to the AP, John Kasich has become the latest Republican to play out the storyline of 2010 by defeating Gov. Ted Strickland in the Ohio gubernatorial race.

With 9.593 of 9,910 precincts reporting, Kasich leads 50.3%-47.3% and the AP and Fox News have called the race.

Read more »

CA-SEN

Call Her 'Senator' -- Boxer Turns Back Fiorina's Challenge

Eric Kleefeld | November 2, 2010, 11:51PM

Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA) and Republican candidate Carly Fiorina

Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA) has dodged the Republican tide, defeating former Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina.

With 13% of precincts reporting, Boxer leads by 49%-45%, and has been projected as the winner by NBC News and the Los Angeles Times.

Read more »

CA-GOV

The Moonbeam Shines Once More, As Jerry Brown Beats Meg Whitman For CA-GOV

Eric Kleefeld | November 2, 2010, 11:31PM

Gov.-elect Jerry Brown (D) and Republican candidate Meg Whitman

Democrat Jerry Brown has won the California gubernatorial race, proving that there is a second act in politics -- and a third, and a fourth, and a fifth -- with the 72-year-old defeating Republican former eBay CEO Meg Whitman to succeed term-limited GOP Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger.

With 8% of precincts reporting, Brown leads by 48%-47%, and has been projected as the winner by Fox News and the Los Angeles Times.

This will not be Brown's first time in the governor's mansion, as he's been there before in both his youth and adulthood. His father Pat Brown was governor from 1959-1967, losing to Ronald Reagan in 1966. Then Jerry was elected California Secretary of State in 1970, and succeeded Reagan as governor in 1974. He ran for president in 1976, was re-elected governor in 1978, ran for president again in 1980, and then lost a Senate race in 1982.

Read more »

Christine O'Donnell

Christine O'Donnell In Concession Speech: 'We Have Won' (VIDEO)

Jillian Rayfield | November 2, 2010, 11:03PM

Republican Christine O'Donnell may have lost the race for Delaware Senate tonight, but in her concession speech she was unfazed: "We worked hard, we had an incredible victory. Be encouraged. We have won. The Delaware political system will never be the same."

She added: "My joking big brother goes: 'We won? Did we miss something?' You know what I meant."

Read more »

KY-SEN

Rand Paul: We All Work For Or Sell Stuff To Rich People (VIDEO)

Jillian Rayfield | November 2, 2010, 10:57PM

Fresh off his Kentucky Senate win, Rand Paul had some interesting things to say about a possible tax increase for the highest-income Americans: "We all either work for rich people, or we sell stuff to rich people. So just punishing rich people is as bad for the economy as punishing anyone."

He also said: "We're all interconnected. There are no rich, there are no middle class, there are no poor. We're all interconnected in the economy."

Read more »

2010 elections

Barbour: New GOP House Majority Will Last

Evan McMorris-Santoro | November 2, 2010, 10:46PM

Gov. Haley Barbour (R-MS)

NRCC ELECTION HQ -- Haley Barbour told the crowd here to settle in for a nice long run in the Congressional majority after tonight.

"You're going to have a great number of years in the majority," he told the crowd of Republicans at this downtown DC hotel. "I don't know how many years, but it's going to be more than two -- I can tell you that."

Barbour, the current governor of Mississippi and the chair of the RNC during the GOP's 1994 electoral sweep, said that tonight's results are "more important" than the last Republican Revolution. President Obama and the Democrats in Congress "have taken the biggest lurch to the left in in American political history," he said, and tonight's Republican victories mean "the American people have given us instructions on how to get back on track."

Barbour, like all of the speakers here tonight, stressed that this election is just the first of many good days for Republicans still to come.

"Get ready for a big ride," Barbour said.

SC-GOV

Republican Nikki Haley Wins Race For South Carolina Governor

Jillian Rayfield | November 2, 2010, 10:43PM

Nikki Haley

Republican Nikki Haley has won the South Carolina gubernatorial race against Democrat Vincent Sheheen.

With 78 percent of precincts reporting, Haley leads by a margin of 52-47, with MSNBC and Fox calling the race.

Read more »

WI-SEN

The End Of A Progressive Champion: Russ Feingold Loses To Ron Johnson

Eric Kleefeld | November 2, 2010, 10:42PM

Sen.-elect Ron Johnson (R-WI) and Sen. Russ Feingold (D-WI)

As the Republican wave spreads across the country, it's time to say goodbye to one of the big-name progressive champions of the past 18 years: Sen. Russ Feingold (D-WI), champion of campaign finance reform and longtime opponent of the Patriot Act, has gone down in defeat against Republican businessman Ron Johnson. It marks the first time since 1986 that Republicans have won a Senate race here.

With 30% of precincts reporting, Johnson leads by 57%-42%, and has been projected as the winner by NBC News and Fox News.

Feingold won his first term with 53% of the vote in 1992, defeating incumbent two-term Republican Sen. Bob Kasten. He had started out in that race as a seemingly third-place underdog in the Democratic primary, but then won the primary with only 70% after after the two other candidates attacked He was then re-elected narrowly with 51% in 1998 against GOP Rep. Mark Neumann, then expanded that margin to 55% in 2004 against businessman Tim Michels. But the bad economy and the Republican tide this year were clearly too much to overcome.

Read more »

CO-GOV

Dem Hickenlooper Wins The Colorado Gubernatorial Race After All

Eric Lach | November 2, 2010, 10:26PM

John Hickenlooper

Democrat John Hickenlooper has won the Colorado gubernatorial race, successfully overcoming a late charge by American Constitution Party candidate Tom Tancredo.

With 324 of 3,246 precincts reporting, Hickenlooper (55.94%) leads Tancredo (35.27%) and Republican Dan Maes (8.79%). MSNBC and FOX have called the race for Hickenlooper.

Read more »

Tim Kaine

Kaine: Dems Will Lose The House

Brian Beutler | November 2, 2010, 10:10PM

Tim Kaine, DNC chair

Speaking to reporters at DNC headquarter moments ago, Chairman Tim Kaine told reporters that Democrats will lose the House of Representatives and the majority of governors mansions across the country.

In the end, he said, there will be "a Democrat in White House, a majority of Republican governors, a Democratic Senate, and a Republican house."

When asked if Speaker Nancy Pelosi should remain in Democratic leadership when her party becomes the minority, Kaine spoke her praises.

"If she wants to she definitely should. She has done a very good job of accomplishing things that i think are going to be very well regarded in history in terms of Speakers who been able to get things done."

KY-SEN

Rand Paul In Victory Speech: This Is A 'Tea Party Tidal Wave' (VIDEO)

Jillian Rayfield | November 2, 2010, 10:02PM

Kentucky Senator-elect Rand Paul's victory speech tonight heavily referenced his speech from his Republican primary night win: "I have a message, a message from the people. The people of Kentucky. A message that is loud and clear and does not mince words: We've come to take our government back!"

"Tonight there's a tea party tidal wave, and we're sending a message to them," said Paul.

Read more »

MO-SEN

Blunt Defeats Carnahan In Missouri Senate Race

Brian Beutler | November 2, 2010, 9:40PM

Missouri Sec. of State Robin Carnahan (D) and Rep. Roy Blunt (R-MO)

The Missouri Senate delegation will remain divided in 2011, as tonight Republican Rep. Roy Blunt defeated Democrat Robin Carnahan to fill the seat being vacated by Sen. Kit Bond.

In a normal year, Carnahan would have stood a very good chance of defeating Blunt, whose stock is low in Missouri after years of getting cozy in Washington and after his son Matt's disastrous single term as governor.

Read more »

LA-SEN

Vitter Shellacks Melancon

Brian Beutler | November 2, 2010, 9:35PM

Sen. David Vitter (R-LA) and Rep. Charlie Melancon (D-LA)

How's this for a new standard of conduct in politics? A "values" Republican can weather a prostitution scandal in a conservative state as long as it occurs a couple years before his re-election bid in a GOP wave year.

If the Louisiana Senate race was a referendum on Democratic rule, it was also a referendum on Sen. David Vitter (R). He joined the House in 1999 as a values conservative on the right flank of the Republican party, replacing the disgraced Bob Livingston. Rumors swirled around Vitter for years, but he nonetheless moved to the Senate in 2005 replacing the retiring Democrat John Breaux. His reputation was shattered in 2007, though, when he was discovered to have solicited prostitutes in both Washington DC and Louisiana.

Tonight, however, he defeated Democratic Rep. Charlie Melancon in one of the most vicious campaigns of the 2010 cycle.

Read more »

Chris Van Hollen

Van Hollen: Dems Can Still Hold House

Brian Beutler | November 2, 2010, 9:24PM

Rep. Chris Van Hollen (D-MD).

DCCC Chairman Chris Van Hollen paid a visit to DNC headquarters to tell reporters that despite early losses, he still thinks Democrats can keep the House.

"Those were the [seats] who were expected to be called," he said of the first returns.

When a reporter from a different outlet told him that her network had already called a GOP takeover of the House, a visibly flustered Van Hollen insisted repeatedly "I think that's a mistake."

Read more »

2010 elections

At Election HQ, GOP Cheers Perriello & Grayson Defeats

Evan McMorris-Santoro | November 2, 2010, 9:11PM

RNC chairman Michael Steele

NRCC Election HQ -- The Republicans gathered at this downtown Washington hotel are starting to feel good about tonight. And nothing so far made them feel better than taking out Reps. Alan Grayson (D-FL) and Tom Perriello (D-VA).

The pair were top targets for the Republicans, just as they were national mascots of sorts for progressives across the country. And when Rep. Greg Walden (R-OR) announced to the still relatively thin crowd here tonight that the pair had been defeated, a mighty cheer rang out.

Periello's Fifth District seat got a visit from President Obama on Friday, a fact that was not lost on the crowds here. "Sorry," Walden joked, to laughter from the crowd.

RNC Chair Michael Steele also took the stage -- he and Walden are the first of many speakers expected to culminate with House Minority Leader John Boehner -- and did his best to pump up the already excited crowd even further. Steele said things look very good for the GOP on the House side, and he said they had their grassroots to thank.

"To our grassroots who got up early and knocked on doors late, we thank you," Steele said. "Thank you for helping us to pull this elephant, if you will, across the finish line. To turn the elephant to face the future."

NY-GOV

Andrew Cuomo Wins Race For New York Governor Over Carl Paladino

Jillian Rayfield | November 2, 2010, 9:06PM

Andrew Cuomo and Carl Paladino

Attorney General Andrew Cuomo (D) has won the race for New York Governor over Carl Paladino (R).

With 0% of precincts reporting, CNN projects that Cuomo is the winner.

Though the Tea Party-backed Paladino had some early momentum that helped him beat Rick Lazio in the September 14 Republican primary, his campaign has since been plagued by controversy and concerns about his temperament.

Read more »

Russ Feingold

Dem Sources Hold Out Hope For Feingold

Brian Beutler | November 2, 2010, 9:00PM

Russ Feingold

Two Democratic sources tell TPM that their exit poll data shows Sen. Russ Feingold (D-WI) either tied with or down by the thinnest of margins against his Republican challenger Ron Johnson.

A senior Dem source says one exit poll has them down by a point. The other has it dead even.

Customary notes of caution about exit polls apply, and, of course, these are Democratic sources pulling for their candidate. But the early data is clearly closer than they expected they would be.

2010 elections

Two Virginia Dems Go Down -- And It Could Get Worse

Eric Kleefeld | November 2, 2010, 8:56PM

Rep. Rick Boucher (D-VA)

It's looking like a bloodbath tonight for Virginia Democrats, with two incumbent Congressmen already going down to defeat -- and possibly more on the way.

The Associated Press reports that Democratic Rep. Rick Boucher of VA-09, who was first elected in 1982, has lost re-election to Republican Morgan Griffith in this southwest Virginia district, after many years of its voters splitting their ticket between Boucher and Republican candidates.

Meanwhile, freshman Democratic Rep. Tom Perriello (D) of VA-05, who upset Republican incumbent Virgil Goode in 2008, has lost to Republican Robert Hurt.

That's not all: Two other freshman Dems, Glenn Nye and Gerry Connolly, both of whom picked up seats from the Republicans in 2008, are currently trailing in their seats. With 44% of precincts reporting in VA-02, Nye trails Republican Scott Rigell by 53%-43%. In VA-11, Connolly trails his 2008 Republican opponent Keith Fimian by a narrower 50%-48%, with 30% of precincts reporting.

Late Update: ABC and CBS have called VA-02 for Rigell. That's three Democrats losing in Virginia, with a possible fourth on the way.

Ben Chandler

Recount Possible In Key Kentucky House Race

Brian Beutler | November 2, 2010, 8:49PM

Rep. Ben Chandler (D-KY)

A quick update from DNC headquarters.

With over 80 percent of precincts reporting, incumbent Dem Ben Chandler in Kentucky's sixth congressional district is holding on to a razor thin lead over his Republican opponent Andy Barr. With over 80 percent of districts reporting, Chandler enjoys a 500 vote margin. This is a seat Dems regard as a bellwether, and at least one Dem source suggests it will likely end in the recount.

2010 elections

Alan Grayson's Political Career Dies Quickly

Eric Kleefeld | November 2, 2010, 8:48PM

Rep. Alan Grayson (D-FL)

Rep. Alan Grayson (D-FL), the freshman Democrat who defeated a Republican incumbent in 2008, and then became a star of the blogosphere and cable TV for his full-throated attacks against Republicans, has now gone down in crushing defeat, so soon after he burst onto the national scene.

With 160 of 239 precincts reporting, Republican former state Sen. Dan Webster leads Grayson 57.4%-39.2%, and has been projected as the winner by CNN and the Orlando Sentinel.

Read more »

WV-SEN

Country Roads Take Dems Home: Manchin Wins West Virginia Senate Seat (VIDEO)

Eric Kleefeld | November 2, 2010, 8:41PM

Joe Manchin

We now have a result in a key red state -- where Democrats have been saved the loss of the seat that was previously held by the late Dem Senator Robert Byrd since 1958 -- as Democratic Gov. Joe Manchin has defeated Republican businessman John Raese.

With 12% of precincts reporting, Manchin leads by 54%-43%, and has been projected as the winner by NBC News and Fox News.

Read more »

CT-SEN

Blumenthal Pins Down McMahon, Wins Connecticut Senate Race

Eric Kleefeld | November 2, 2010, 8:29PM

Republican Senate candidate Linda McMahon and Sen.-elect Richard Blumenthal (D-CT)

Unfortunately for Linda McMahon, the former CEO of World Wrestling Entertainment, she couldn't write the ending to this storyline. In the Connecticut Senate race, Democratic state Attorney General Richard Blumenthal has defeated McMahon, the Republican nominee, in the contest to succeed retiring Democratic Sen. Chris Dodd.

With less than 1% or precincts reporting, Blumenthal leads by 62%-36%, and has been projected as the winner by Fox News and NBC News. (Keep in mind that with so few precincts in, the margin is likely to fluctuate considerably throughout the night -- the current numbers are not final.)

Read more »

DE-SEN

Democrat Chris Coons Beats The Memorable Christine O'Donnell For Delaware Senate Seat

Eric Kleefeld | November 2, 2010, 8:02PM

Republican Senate candidate Christine O'Donnell and Sen.-elect Chris Coons (D-DE)

In one disappointment for the Tea Party Movement tonight, Republican activist Christine O'Donnell has lost the Delaware Senate race to the Democratic nominee, New Castle County Executive Chris Coons.

With 0% of precincts reporting, Coons has been projected as the winner by CNN and Fox News.

Read more »

FL-SEN

Republican Marco Rubio Cruises To Victory In Florida Senate Race

Evan McMorris-Santoro | November 2, 2010, 8:02PM

Marco Rubio

Marco Rubio, who has actually been compared to a young Barack Obama by excited Republicans, has ascended to the U.S. Senate from the state of Florida. Rubio has handily defeated both Gov. Charlie Crist, the independent candidate, and Rep. Kendrick Meek, the Democrat -- a three-way sweep that quite literally is the stuff GOP dreams are made of.

With 649 of 6,881 precincts reporting, Rubio leads Crist and Meek 51.6-28.9-19.5. CNN and Fox News have called the race for Rubio.

Read more »

KY-SEN

Rand Paul Wins Kentucky Senate Race

Evan McMorris-Santoro | November 2, 2010, 7:03PM

Rand Paul

Get ready for two Pauls, one Congress. Rand Paul, son of Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX), won the Kentucky Senate race tonight, according to the cable news networks. With just 103 out of 3,578 precincts reporting, Paul leads Democrat Jack Conway 54.7-45.3. MSNBC and CNN have called the race for the Republican.

The win means the controversial junior Senator from Kentucky, Jim Bunning, who often publicly scraps with Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell, will be replaced by another controversial junior Senator from Kentucky who got where he is today in part by publicly scrapping with McConnell already.

It may be no surprise, then, that Paul has said he intends to emulate Bunning's irascible nature, which led him to vote against TARP and hold up unemployment benefit extensions for months while even fellow members of his Republican caucus tried to stop him.

Read more »

Andrew Breitbart

ABC Cuts Breitbart From Election Night Coverage

Rachel Slajda | November 2, 2010, 5:00PM

Andrew Breitbart

After several biting back-and-forths, ABC News announced today that it is cutting conservative blogger Andrew Breitbart from ABC's election night coverage.

The network was the target of much blowback after it announced that Breitbart -- who had a role in Shirley Sherrod's firing and has supported James O'Keefe's video activism -- would take part in a town hall-style event in Phoenix.

Read more »

NC-04

GOP Consultant's Sales Pitch: I Can Get You Morgan Freeman's Voice (Not!)

Eric Kleefeld | November 2, 2010, 4:07PM

Morgan Freeman

The plot has really thickened on that North Carolina GOP House candidate, B.J. Lawson, who ran an ad featuring a fake "Morgan Freeman" voiceover. It turns out that the GOP consultant who created the ad has a history of making a sales pitch to candidates: That he can get Morgan Freeman to record ads for them.

As Politico reports, Republican consultant Ben Mathis has also offered the voice of "Morgan Freeman" to a state Senate campaign in New York, plus the voice of Seinfeld actor and Family Feud host John O'Hurley.

Read more »

2010 elections

I Am Not A Witch...I'm Aqua Buddha?: The Most Iconic Moments From The 2010 Campaign

Jillian Rayfield | November 2, 2010, 11:56AM

Scenes from the 2010 midterms.

From the moment "Tom Campbell"'s eyes glowed red in Carly Fiorina's "Demon Sheep" ad, we knew this campaign season was going to be chock-full of bizarre and memorable memes. And we were right -- sheep, witches, and chickens were just a few of the iconic moments from the 2010 midterm elections.

[TPM SLIDESHOW: Stranger Than Fiction? TPM Casts The 2010 Midterms Movie]

So here are TPM's favorites...

Read more »

Joe Miller

Republican: Miller Hurting Republicans In Alaska (VIDEO)

Brian Beutler | November 2, 2010, 11:36AM

Alaska Senate candidate Joe Miller (R)

The tea party-backed Joe Miller's victory over Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski in the Alaska Senate primary gave Democrat Scott McAdams an opportunity to make a name for himself, and a narrow shot at victory. But it's also given Democrats across the state an opportunity to use Miller and his enormous disapproval ratings against other Republicans.

Case in point: a new ad running in Alaska for dark horse gubernatorial candidate Democrat Ethan Berkowitz, that ties Republican Sean Parnell to Miller and Sarah Palin.

"They gave Alaska its largest tax increase, the most spending in state history, declining oil investment, higher unemployment, a $500 million giveaway to TransCanada and Exxon," the ad's narrator says. "And they gave us Joe Miller. With four more years of Sean Parnell, do you really think we'll be any closer to building a gas line?"

Read more »

NC-04

Recriminations Fly As Morgan Freeman Sucked Into NC GOPer's Hoax Ad (VIDEO)

Eric Kleefeld | November 2, 2010, 10:54AM

Morgan Freeman

Here's a fun last-minute scrap in Campaign 2010. B.J. Lawson, the Republican candidate against North Carolina Democratic Rep. David Price, ran a TV ad that featured a voiceover that sounded like Morgan Freeman. Then the campaign said it was Morgan Freeman -- and then Morgan Freeman, who has in the past supported Democratic candidates such as President Obama, made it quite clear that it wasn't him.

Freeman's press agents sent Ben Smith a statement: "These people are lying. I have never recorded any campaign ads for B.J. Lawson and I do not support his candidacy. And, no one who represents me ever has ever authorized the use of my name, voice or any other likeness in support of Mr. Lawson or his candidacy."

The Lawson campaign said that they were "tricked" -- that the ad company they contracted with promised them Morgan Freeman. Lawson campaign spokesman Martin Avila told CNN: "We're apologizing to Congressman Price, to the voters, and most of all to Morgan Freeman because this is not the campaign we wanted to run, and not the campaign we have run."

Read more »

Stephen Colbert

Colbert: Sharron Angle's From The Desert And Uses Decoys - Just Like Saddam! (VIDEO)

Jillian Rayfield | November 2, 2010, 10:13AM

Stephen Colbert figured out last night how Sharron Angle is pulling ahead in the Nevada Senate race: "What's the secret to the popularity of Angle's policies? That she keeps her policies a secret."

Angle has repeatedly dodged the press during her campaign, even going so far as to using decoys to fool reporters.

"Bravo Miss Angle," Colbert said as he put up a picture of Saddam Hussein. "It has been a while since we've had a strong leader from a desert land who uses decoys."

[TPM SLIDESHOW: Stranger Than Fiction? TPM Casts The 2010 Midterms Movie]

Read more »

Jon Stewart

Jon Stewart Mocks Fox News For Erroneous 'Obama-Is-Racially-Intolerant' Flap (VIDEO)

Jillian Rayfield | November 2, 2010, 10:00AM

Jon Stewart was incredulous last night that Fox News got riled up over President Obama's oft-repeated metaphor that Republicans "can come for the ride, but they gotta sit in back." Pretty harmless, Stewart said, but "have you heard that story the Fox way?" Sean Hannity was outraged to hear the President say Republicans have to sit "in the back" which he said is "not exactly a tasteful reference." Stewart asked: "You think the President's saying Republicans have to take it in the butt? That's filthy! Or is it something even stupider?"

It turns out it was something even stupider. As TPM reported previously, Fox News hosts complained that Obama's use of "back of the bus" -- he actually said "sit in the back" -- is a racially insensitive invocation of Rosa Parks. "If this is a racial metaphor," Stewart said, "you aren't Rosa Parks. You're Miss Daisy."

Though Stewart conceded that "at least we can all agree how offensive it would be for any major political figure to invoke the ugly history of segregation for an election in 2010. In the fall anyway, unless it was Michael Steele in the summer of 2010." Cue Steele saying in August that Nancy Pelosi will have to ride in the "back of the bus."

Read more »

2010 elections

Every Cloud Has A Silver Lining: The GOP House Seats That Could Go Dem Tonight

Eric Kleefeld | November 2, 2010, 9:28AM

Rep. Joseph Cao (R-LA)

So as we stare down the barrel of some big Democratic losses in the House today, let's look at another end of the equation. It's often noted that Republicans need to pick up 39 seats to win a majority, but it is also theoretically possible that they could pick up 39 seats and still not win control. Why? Because there are in fact a very small handful of seats that they hold that the Democrats could nevertheless pickup in even this bad year.

Keep in mind, these wave cycles often have a few seats that swing the other way. Even in 1994, Democrats picked up such seats as Maine-02 and Rhode Island-01. The 2006 midterm year was interesting, with Republican picking up nothing -- not one measly House seat -- but even in 2008 they won a couple seats back, such as Kansas-02 and Texas-22, even as they lost another net 21 seats.

So let's take a quick look at the Republican-held House seats that according to the leading ratings out there -- CQ, Cook Political Report, Rothenberg Political Report, and Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball -- are expected to go to the Dems.

To be honest, there aren't that many of them -- though who knows, there could be some surprises tonight. The criteria here are that the ratings guys all have these seats ranging from toss-up to leaning Dem to Dem favored. It's a short list, but each one of them would move back the goalpost for a Republican House. Then again, if the national GOP wave turns out to be as big as everyone says, it won't be too much of an issue -- though it surely means something to the Dem candidates in these individual districts.

Read more »

2010 elections

Day Of The Tea Party? Election Day Answers Some, Not All Questions

Evan McMorris-Santoro | November 2, 2010, 8:58AM

Clockwise from top left: Sharron Angle (R-NV), Joe Miller (R-AK), Ken Buck (R-CO), Christine O'Donnell (R-DE)

So this is it -- the day the tea partiers take back America. Or at least part of it. Or at least convince Republicans to stop taking it away as much as they did the last time they were in charge. Or at least convince Republicans to repeatedly respond to the movement's inflamed passions with tea party-friendly rhetoric.

Whatever happens, tonight's tally sheets will be all about the tea party -- those folks on TV will be counting candidates and races to see how big the tea party's influence in Washington will be in the end. There are several races to watch, but the main thing to remember is that the tea party can't really lose tonight: all they can really do is win less.

Read more »

Democrats

Dead Dems Walking: TPM's List Of Candidates Who've Been Written Off By Their Party

Brian Beutler | November 2, 2010, 7:24AM

Majority Leader Steny Hoyer with other House Democrats

Returns for 435 House elections will start rolling in a few hours from now. Well before they do, though, most Dems had long conceded that more than a handful of races are already lost. With these seats for all intents and purposes off the table before the polls opened, the number of truly contested seats the GOP needs to win control of the House is effectively much smaller than the magic 39.

Assuming the House does change hands, then, the big open question is how big the swing will be. There are scores of seats in play, but the battle lines have already moved past over a dozen House members who, in most cases, have already been written off by their own party.

If you're keeping score tonight, don't hold your breath for any of these Democrats.

Read more »

2010 elections

Power To The People: Some Of The Biggest Ballot Measures Of 2010

Clayton Ashley | November 2, 2010, 7:03AM

When voters head to the polls Tuesday, many won't just be voting for senators, congressman, governors and all sorts of local officials. They'll also have the opportunity to change their state laws in a more direct, populist way: by ballot measure. Over half the states have propositions on the ballot and TPM has collected some of the most important, fascinating, and controversial questions voters will get the chance to answer for themselves in the voting booth.

Read more »

NV-SEN

'Monopoly' Makers Send Angle Cease-And-Desist Letter Over Website

Eric Kleefeld | November 1, 2010, 7:32PM

Nevada GOP Senate Candidate Sharron Angle

Heh, this is funny. It is now being alleged that one of the Sharron Angle campaign's efforts to attack Harry Reid for being soft on illegal immigration was itself... illegal!

As the Huffington Post reports, the Hasbro corporation, which owns the "Monopoly" game, has sent Team Angle a cease-and-desist letter over their website "Harry Reid's Amnesty Game," which uses Monopoly imagery and touts itself as being "fun for the whole illegal family":

Read more »

CO-GOV

Palin Gives Tancredo Last-Minute Endorsement In CO-GOV

Eric Lach | November 1, 2010, 6:08PM

Sarah Palin and Tom Tancredo

Sarah Palin is swooping in to the Colorado gubernatorial race with a last minute endorsement for American Constitution Party candidate Tom Tancredo.

Read more »

2010 elections

Senate In The Balance: TPM's Look At The 9 Key Races Still Up For Grabs

Eric Kleefeld | November 1, 2010, 5:06PM

Clockwise from top left: Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV), Sen. Michael Bennet (D-CO), Sen. Russ Feingold (D-WI), Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA)

As we head into Election Day, one thing is clear for Senate Democrats: It's going to be bad. Seriously. There's no going anywhere but down. But how far down?

It's unlikely that Democrats will manage to lose their majority outright, since they're starting at the high mark of 59 seats. But things sure look rough. Open seats in Indiana and North Dakota seem to be gone already, along with incumbent Sen. Blanche Lincoln in Arkansas. Republican seats that seemed like potential Dem pickups much earlier in the cycle -- North Carolina and open seats in Florida, Kentucky, Missouri, New Hampshire, and Ohio -- are clearly out of reach.

[TPM SLIDESHOW: Stranger Than Fiction? TPM Casts The 2010 Midterms Movie]

The few bright spots for Democrats are open seats in Connecticut and Delaware, where very weak Republican candidates Linda McMahon and Christine O'Donnell have spared the Dems from total humiliation. So with that in mind, let's take a look at some other key races to watch tomorrow.

Read more »

2012 elections

GOPers Defend Palin After Story Of Plan To Quash Her '12 Run

Eric Lach | November 1, 2010, 4:38PM

Sarah Palin

Yesterday, Sarah Palin lashed out after a Politico story cited anonymous "advisers to the main 2012 presidential contenders" and "other veteran Republican operatives" saying that after the midterm elections, they'll embark on a "common, if uncoordinated" mission to halt the former half-term governor's political momentum going into the 2012 presidential election.

In an e-mail to The Daily Caller today, Palin called out Politico: "I suppose I could play their immature, unprofessional, waste-of-time game, too, by claiming these reporters and politicos are homophobe, child molesting, tax evading, anti-dentite, puppy-kicking, chain smoking porn producers...really, they are... I've seen it myself...but I'll only give you the information off-the-record, on deep, deep background; attribute these 'facts' to an 'anonymous source' and I'll give you more."

Meanwhile, some 2012 president contenders and veteran Republican operatives have gone on the record rallying to Palin's support and denouncing the article and its anonymous sources.

Read more »

CA-SEN

SurveyUSA Poll: Brown Up 11, Boxer Up 8 In CA Races

Marc Kilstein | November 1, 2010, 3:59PM

Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA) and California Attorney General Jerry Brown

On the heels of a more-narrow PPP survey released this morning, SurveyUSA is out with new numbers on the California Senate and gubernatorial contests that suggest Democrats are well-positioned to take both races.

In the Senate race, Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer is found ahead of Republican former Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina 46%-38%. When SurveyUSA looked at this race last week, Boxer led by five points, 45%-40%.

Read more »

DE-SEN

TV Stations: Christine O'Donnell's Closing Argument Fail Was Self-Inflicted

Evan McMorris-Santoro | November 1, 2010, 2:58PM

Christine O'Donnell

Christine O'Donnell's plan to end her campaign on a televised high note fell flat after her campaign failed to work out the right details with TV station operators in Delaware, the stations told me today.

At the end of yesterday's Tea Party Express rally in Delaware, the Republican Senate nominee announced a 30-minute closing argument video broadcast on a Newcastle County public access station and WBOC-TV, a Delaware Fox affiliate. She urged her supporters to tune in to the public access channel -- known as Channel 28 to Comcast subscribers in the area -- at a still-to-be-determined time on Sunday night, and to catch rebroadcasts of the spot on both Channel 28 and WBOC today. None of the broadcasts she promised happened. O'Donnell's campaign cried bias, while the TV stations said she and her campaign were confused.

On her campaign twitter feed, O'Donnell announced the first showing would be broadcast at 11:30 PM on Channel 28 last night. As the time came and went with no show, the campaign tweeted "Okay... this is NOT our show! Must be a programming mix up. We will get back to you..." There were no more tweets until 10 AM the next day, when the O'Donnell had said the ad would appear on Channel 28 for the second time. Again, it didn't appear. That time around, the campaign began to allege bias on the part of the operators of Channel 28.

"This isn't our show either!" the campaign tweeted. "We are told channel 28 "forgot" to air it...both times... even though we paid for the time slot last week."

Read more »

Tea Party

TPM Interviews Birther-Curious Tea Partier At O'Donnell Rally (VIDEO)

Evan McMorris-Santoro | November 1, 2010, 1:15PM

One Republican at yesterday's tea party rally in Delaware for Republican Senate nominee Christine O'Donnell told me she hopes that if the GOP takes over Congress, investigating President Obama's birth certificate will be on the agenda. It was, for me, one last tea party rally before Election Day -- and one more instance of birtherism found among supporters of the movement.

The woman wouldn't give me her whole name (she told me her first name was "Linda") and she told me she wasn't from Delaware. But she did say she was an O'Donnell supporter and a "Republican and a conservative" who supports the tea party movement.

Linda's hope for a Congressional solution to suspicions about Obama's heritage was not a universal at the rally. Another tea party supporter of O'Donnell's I spoke to at the Wilmington rally, area local Maureen Harris, didn't go so far as to say she believes Obama is an American, but she said the issue "is irrelevant" when it comes to her hopes for a Republican-led Congress.

But Linda's sentiments suggest that at least some of those turning out to put Republicans back in power tomorrow are hoping that lingering questions about Obama's past first raised on the 2008 campaign trail will become part of the agenda in Washington in 2011.

The birther movement remains alive and well in the tea party, it seems, even as the movement appears poised to help change the balance of power in at least one half of the Capitol building.

Read more »

2010 elections

Breitbart: ABC Told Me I'd Be Part Of Broadcast Coverage

Rachel Slajda | November 1, 2010, 1:12PM

Andrew Breitbart

In the continuing back-and-forth over what exactly right-wing blogger Andrew Breitbart will be contributing to ABC News's election night coverage, Breitbart now says he was told he'd be part of the news organization's broadcast coverage.

In emails Breitbart posted to his web site last night, an unnamed producer from ABC News explains that ABC is looking for "political figures and newsmakers to appear in our Town Hall style panel" in Phoenix, Ariz. The email notes that the town hall, which will take place at Arizona State University, "will broadcast on the ABC Television Network, abcnews.com, ABC News Now, and ABC News Radio."

ABC has shot back.

Read more »

WA-SEN

And The Leader In WA-SEN Is...???

Eric Kleefeld | November 1, 2010, 12:51PM

WA-SEN candidates Sen. Patty Murray (D) and Dino Rossi (R)

Things are going down to the wire in the Washington Senate race, where three-term Democratic Sen. Patty Murray is in a dogfight with former state Senator and two-time unsuccessful gubernatorial candidate Dino Rossi. Indeed, a Democratic pollster has the Republican ahead, and a Republican-aligned news outlet has the Democrat ahead.

Public Policy Polling (D): Rossi 50%, Murray 48%. The survey of likely voters has a ±2.2% margin of error. The previous PPP numbers from two weeks ago gave Murray a lead of 49%-47%.

Fox News: Murray 49%, Rossi 47%. The survey of likely voters has a ±3% margin of error. The previous Fox poll from three weeks ago gave Rossi an edge of 47%-46%.

The TPM Poll Average gives Murray a lead of 48.9%-46.3%.

Read more »

CO-SEN

Fox News Poll: Buck Leads CO-SEN By 4 Points

Eric Lach | November 1, 2010, 12:42PM

Republican candidate for the U.S. Senate race in Colorado Ken Buck and Sen. Michael Bennet (D-CO)

A new Fox News poll of the Colorado Senate race shows Republican Ken Buck with a four-point lead over Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet, 50%-46%.

Read more »

DropZone Security

Army: Soldier Didn't Have Permission To Be Miller Security Guard

Jillian Rayfield | November 1, 2010, 12:18PM

Alaska Dispatch editor Tony Hopfinger sits with his hands cuffed.

The Army has found that a solider who served as part of Joe Miller's private security detail at a recent town hall, when members of the team handcuffed and detained a journalist, did not have authorization to work as a private contractor.

Read more »

CO-GOV

Fox News Poll: Tancredo Down Just 3 Points In CO-GOV

Eric Lach | November 1, 2010, 12:15PM

CO Gov. candidates John Hickenlooper (D), Dan Maes (R) and Tom Tancredo (Constitution).

A new Fox News poll of the Colorado gubernatorial race shows Democrat John Hickenlooper leading third-party candidate Tom Tancredo by just three points. Republican Dan Maes came in at 6%.

Read more »

NV-SEN

Fox News Poll: Angle Ahead By 3 Points In NV-SEN

Eric Kleefeld | November 1, 2010, 12:05PM

NV-SEN candidates Sharron Angle (R) and Harry Reid (D)

The new Fox News poll of the Nevada Senate race has Republican nominee Sharron Angle maintaining a narrow lead against Democratic Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid.

The numbers: Angle 48%, Reid 45%. The survey of likely voters has a ±3% margin of error. In the previous Fox poll from three weeks ago, Angle led by 49%-47%.

The TPM Poll Average gives Angle a lead of 49.5%-46.4%.

Read more »

OH-GOV

Fox News Poll Confirms Kasich's OH-GOV Advantage Heading Into Tomorrow

Evan McMorris-Santoro | November 1, 2010, 12:03PM

John Kasich

It's oh-so-close in the Ohio gubernatorial race, but yet another public poll out today shows Republican John Kasich with a slim advantage over incumbent Gov. Ted Strickland (D).

A Fox News robopoll -- conducted using methodology from Rasmussen Saturday -- shows Kasich head 48-44. That number confirms the Strickland momentum shown in other public polling, suggesting it could be a long night in Ohio tomorrow.

The last Fox News poll of the race, conducted on Oct. 23, showed Kasich ahead 47-43. Another Fox poll from Oct. 16 showed Kasich ahead 49-43.

The TPM Poll Average shows Kasich ahead 48.8-45.7.

OH-GOV

Ohio Poll Shows Ted Strickland Closing, But Not Enough To Win

Evan McMorris-Santoro | November 1, 2010, 11:25AM

OH Gov. Ted Strickland

A new round of the "Ohio Poll" from the University Of Cincinnati confirms incumbent Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland's (D) momentum against Republican John Kasich, but the pollster reports Strickland's surge is likely not enough to keep the Democrat in office for a second term.

The new survey, conducted among likely voters over the weekend, shows Kasich ahead 52-47. The last poll from the school, conducted in early October, showed Kasich ahead 51-43.

Despite Strickland's movement to close in on the Republican, the pollster "projects victories for Republican candidates" in both the Buckeye State's gubernatorial and Senate races.

The governor's race has become one of the most closely-watched of the final days of the 2010 campaign, with Democrats hoping Strickland can hold off Kasich despite the state's lagging economy and general malaise. A win in Ohio would be some good news for Democrats on a night many expect to be full of bad news for the party.

The TPM Poll Average shows Kasich ahead 48.9-45.9.

Read more »

CA-GOV

PPP Poll: Brown And Boxer Stay Narrowly Ahead In California

Eric Kleefeld | November 1, 2010, 11:07AM

Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA) and California Attorney General Jerry Brown

The new survey of California from Public Policy Polling (D) shows Democratic gubernatorial nominee Jerry Brown and Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer holding on to narrow leads in their respective races against Republican businesswomen Meg Whitman and Carly Fiorina.

In the gubernatorial race: Brown 51%, Whitman 46%. In the previous PPP poll from a week ago, Brown had a wider lead of 53%-42%. The TPM Poll Average of the gubernatorial race gives Brown a lead of 49.6%-42.0%.

In the Senate race: Boxer 50%, Fiorina 46%. The previous PPP numbers from a week ago gave Boxer a lead of 52%-43%. The TPM Poll Average of the Senate race gives Boxer a lead of 48.1%-44.1%.

The survey of likely voters has a ±3.3% margin of error.

Read more »

FL-GOV

Polls Show Florida Governors Race Is One Of The Closest In The Country

Brian Beutler | November 1, 2010, 11:06AM

Alex Sink and Rick Scott.

A Quinnipiac poll released today finds the race for Florida Governor locked up. The survey finds Democrat Alex Sink with a 44-43 lead over Republican Rick Scott.

That's an improvement for Scott over Quinnipiac's last poll, which had Sink up 45-41. But all polls are incredibly tight. Scott appears to have faltered slightly in the last month, and has lost what was already a narrow lead.

Read more »

CO-GOV

PPP Poll: Dem Hickenlooper Up 5 Points In CO-GOV

Eric Lach | November 1, 2010, 11:03AM

CO Gov. candidates John Hickenlooper (D), Dan Maes (R) and Tom Tancredo (Constitution).

A new PPP poll of the Colorado gubernatorial race shows Democrat John Hickenlooper ahead of third-party candidate Tom Tancredo by five points, 48%-43%. Republican Dan Maes is a distant third at 8%.

Read more »

PA-SEN

Polls: Toomey Leading In PA-SEN Race, Possibly Pulling Away

Eric Kleefeld | November 1, 2010, 10:33AM

Pennsylvania Senate candidate Pat Toomey (R)

A new crop of polls in the Pennsylvania Senate race shows Republican Pat Toomey pulling away somewhat against Democrat Joe Sestak, after Sestak had previously been closing the gap.

• Quinnipiac: Toomey 50%, Sestak 45%. The survey of likely voters has a ±2.8% margin of error. In the previous Quinnipiac poll from two weeks ago, Toomey's lead was a slightly narrower 48%-46%.

• Public Policy Polling (D): Toomey 51%, Sestak 46%. The survey of likely voters has a ±3.5% margin of error. In the previous poll from two weeks ago, Sestak had taken a narrow edge of 46%-45%.

• The Muhlenberg daily tracking poll: Toomey 48%, Sestak 44%. The survey of likely voters has a ±4.5% margin of error. Yesterday's tracking poll -- which overlaps this one by three days out of the four-day sample -- had Toomey ahead by a narrower 45%-43%.

Read more »

Sarah Palin

Palin Says Murkowski's 'Hired Guns' Got AK Radio Host Yanked Off Air

Jillian Rayfield | November 1, 2010, 10:28AM

Former candidate for Vice President Sarah Palin

Dan Fagan, a conservative talk-radio host in Alaska, had his show pulled off the air on Friday after he encouraged listeners to file as write-in candidates in the Senate race, as a way to bury Sen. Lisa Murkowski's name and give tea party favorite Republican nominee Joe Miller a boost.

Sarah Palin leapt to Fagan's defense on her Facebook page, accusing Murkowski's "hired guns" of threatening Fagan, and putting the pressure on the radio station to take him off the air.

Read more »

NV-SEN

PPP Poll: Neck And Neck In Nevada Senate Race

Eric Kleefeld | November 1, 2010, 9:57AM

Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) and Sharron Angle (R)

The new survey of the Nevada Senate race from Public Policy Polling (D) shows Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and Republican nominee Sharron Angle running neck-and-neck.

The initial numbers, including all candidates on the ballot: Angle 47% Reid 46%, Tea Party candidate Scott Ashjian 3%, five other candidates at 0%-1%, and the peculiar Nevada option of "None of the Above" 1%.

When the question was asked against a strict two-way option of Reid and Angle, Reid has an edge of 49%-48%. Keep in mind that support for third-party candidates often collapses in the voting booth, with people breaking to the major candidates, though this effect is very hard to predict.

The survey of likely voters has a ±3.8% margin of error. The previous PPP poll from early October put Reid ahead by 47%-45% in the multi-candidate race, and ahead 49%-48% in the two-way race.

Read more »

CO-SEN

PPP Poll: Yup, CO-SEN Is Real Close

Eric Lach | November 1, 2010, 9:53AM

Republican candidate for the U.S. Senate race in Colorado Ken Buck and Sen. Michael Bennet (D-CO)

A new PPP Poll of the Colorado Senate race shows Republican Ken Buck with a one-point lead over Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet, 49%-48%.

Read more »

OH-GOV

Dem Strickland Erases GOPer Kasich's Big Lead In Ohio Governor's Race

Brian Beutler | November 1, 2010, 9:47AM

John Kasich

A new Quinnipiac poll suggests Ohio Governor Ted Strickland has almost erased a once-significant gap over his GOP rival John Kasich.

The survey of 848 likely voters gives Kasich a narrow 47-46 lead over the incumbent Democrat. Compare that to the last Quinnipiac poll, conducted just over a week ago, which gave Kasich a significant 49-43 lead over Strickland, and it suggests rapid tightening in the days before the election.

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John Cornyn

Cornyn: We Can't Take The Senate

Brian Beutler | November 1, 2010, 9:30AM

Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX)

On the Today Show this morning, NRSC Chairman John Cornyn said conclusively that the Senate is out of reach for Republicans this cycle.

"I think we don't get the majority back but we come awfully close, and we finish the job in 2012," Cornyn said.

This has actually been Cornyn's view for months. But this weekend, in what was probably an attempt at expectation-setting, unnamed Democrats started telling reporters they feared they might lose control of the Senate. Cornyn has his own incentives not to inflate expectations, but he's consistently said he thinks 2012 is the year Republicans will return to power in the upper chamber.

Most prognosticators say Republicans are poised to pick up between six and eight seats on Tuesday -- not enough to retake control. Video of Cornyn's appearance below the fold.

Read more »

WV-SEN

Polls: Dem Manchin Ahead In WV-SEN

Eric Kleefeld | November 1, 2010, 9:27AM

Two new polls of the West Virginia Senate special election both give Democratic Gov. Joe Manchin a narrow lead against Republican businessman John Raese, in the race to succeed the late Dem Sen. Robert Byrd.

From Rasmussen: Manchin 50%, Raese 46%. The survey of likely voters has a ±4% margin of error. In the previous Rasmussen poll from last week, Manchin led by 49%-46%.

From Public Policy Polling (D): Manchin 51%, Raese 46%. The survey of likely voters has a ±2.4% margin of error. In PPP's numbers from last week, Manchin led by 50%-44%.

Read more »

Patty Murray

Is Dino Rossi Making Late Surge Against Sen. Patty Murray In Washington?

Brian Beutler | November 1, 2010, 9:21AM

WA-SEN candidates Sen. Patty Murray (D) and Dino Rossi (R)

A new Public Policy poll of 2,055 likely voters in Washington state has got to be causing Senate Democrat Patty Murray heartburn. Murray has been leading her Republican rival Dino Rossi in most polls for weeks, but this one has her down two points, 50-48.

Now, Murray was ahead or at least tied in all but one survey last week. That was a Rasmussen poll which gave Rossi a one point lead, 48-47.

Read more »

IL-SEN

PPP Poll: GOPer Kirk Leads IL-SEN By 4 Points

Eric Lach | November 1, 2010, 9:11AM

IL Senate candidates Alexi Giannoulias (D) and Mark Kirk (R)

A new PPP Poll of the Illinois Senate race shows Republican Mark Kirk with a four-point lead over Democrat Alexi Giannoulias, 46%-42%, with the Green Party's LeAlan Jones and Libertarian Mike Labno each at 3%.

Read more »

AK-SEN

Poll: Murkowski Trails Miller In Alaska Senate Race

Brian Beutler | November 1, 2010, 8:28AM

Joe Miller

A new Public Policy survey of the three-way Senate race in Alaska flies in the face of most recent polling. For the first time in weeks, it gives Republican nominee Joe Miller a 37-30-30 lead over his Democratic and independent rivals.

The previous PPP poll of the race, from Oct. 10, gave Miller a lead of 35-33-26.

Still, most recent data indicates that write-in candidate Sen. Lisa Murkowski, who lost the Republican primary to Miller earlier this year, has a significant lead over Miller and Democrat Scott McAdams.

Read more »

Polls

More Polls Show Dems Down -- Perhaps By Double Digits

Brian Beutler | November 1, 2010, 7:56AM

Sen. Minority Leader John Boehner (R-OH), House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) and President Barack Obama

A pair of new polls this morning confirms what basically every other major public poll has been saying for some time: Democrats are poised for a poor showing in tomorrow's election.

Gallup, whose numbers have bounced around significantly this cycle, now gives the GOP a 15-point lead on their congressional generic ballot, 55-40.

[TPM SLIDESHOW: Stranger Than Fiction? TPM Casts The 2010 Midterm Elections]

Read more »

Harry Reid

If Harry Reid Loses, Who Will Win The Democratic Leadership Race?

Brian Beutler | November 1, 2010, 7:07AM

Sen. Charles Schumer (D-NY), Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV) and Sen. Dick Durbin (D-IL) at a press conference in April 2010.

If Nate Silver is to be believed (and he usually is) Democrats are just about as likely to keep control of the Senate as Harry Reid is to lose his election.

That would leave Democrats to choose a new Majority Leader -- and two of Washington's most famous roommates poised for a political fight over the top job in the Senate.

Majority Whip Dick Durbin and Conference Chair Chuck Schumer spent a fair amount of the 111th Congress privately -- but nakedly -- wooing their fellow Democrats, hoping to secure the votes they'd need to ascend to Majority Leader if Reid loses.

Read more »

Senate '10

Paladino Walks Out On Interview After Questions About Gillibrand Comments (VIDEO)

Megan Carpentier | October 31, 2010, 8:25PM

Carl Paladino

New York gubernatorial candidate Carl Paladino (R) walked out on a local television interview in Plattsburgh, New York on Friday evening after the anchor asked him whether his comments about Sen. Kirsten Gillbrand (D) were sexist. Paladino had called New York's junior Senator "[Schumer's] little girl" on Thursday, in reference to Sen. Chuck Schumer (D).

When asked if he regretted the comments or thought they were sexist, Paladino said, "No, I don't. I was referring to the fact that Miss Gillbrand seems to vote exactly as Mr. Schumer directs her to. She doesn't show any mind of her own in voting. And that's why I referred to her that way."

Read more »

DE-SEN

Christine O'Donnell Goes Back To The Tea Party; Promises Them A Surprise

Evan McMorris-Santoro | October 31, 2010, 7:23PM

Delaware Senate candidate Christine O'Donnell (R)

WILMINGTON, DE -- It ain't over 'til it's over, says Christine O'Donnell. The embattled Republican nominee for Senate here in The First State told a crowd of supporters from her tea party base not to count her out just yet -- despite polls showing Democrat Chris Coons cruising to an easy win. O'Donnell says she's counting on first-time voters and a new 30-minute TV closing argument (airing three times on statewide TV in the next 24 hours) to pull off what most observers say would be a miracle win.

At a Delaware stop for the Tea Party Express bus tour -- the PAC-funded group that helped bring you such quotable tea party notables as Sen. Scott Brown (R-MA), Nevada GOP Senate nominee Sharron Angle, Alaska GOP Senate nominee Joe Miller and others -- O'Donnell called on her supporters not to give up hope.

Read more »

KY-SEN

PPP Poll: Goodbye Time For Conway, As Rand Paul Way Ahead

Eric Kleefeld | October 31, 2010, 5:56PM

KY candidates for U.S Senate Jack Conway (D) and Rand Paul (R)

The new Public Policy Polling (D) survey of the Kentucky Senate race gives a huge lead to Republican nominee Rand Paul. And it also suggests that Democrat Jack Conway's late gambit of attacking Paul's religious background and Aqua-Buddhist college years only backfired in the end.

The numbers: Paul 55%, Conway 40%. The survey of likely voters has a ±3.1% margin of error. In the previous PPP survey from last week, Paul led by 53%-40%.

That previous poll had also indicated that voters didn't like the Aqua Buddha ad. The pollster's analysis goes a bit further, showing how Conway's negative final push hasn't worked:

Read more »

2012 elections

ABC/WaPo Poll: Jon Stewart Leads Stephen Colbert In Presidential Match-Up

Eric Kleefeld | October 31, 2010, 5:13PM

Stephen Colbert and Jon Stewart

Keep sanity and/or fear alive!

The new ABC/Washington Post poll contained this question:

(ASKED OF REGISTERED VOTERS) Just for fun, if the 2012 presidential election were being held today, and the candidates were the television personalities (Jon Stewart) and (Stephen Colbert), for whom would you vote - (Stewart) or (Colbert)? IF OTHER, NEITHER, DK, REF) Would you lean toward (Stewart) or toward (Colbert)?

The result: Among registered voters, Stewart 42% to Colbert 22%. An additional 17% said neither, 3% would not vote, and 14% had no opinion.

Among the narrower poll of likely voters -- which has shown a severe enthusiasm gap for Democrats this year -- Colbert naturally closes the gap, but only slightly: Stewart 39%, Colbert 22%, plus 20% neither, 4% who would not vote, and 15% no opinion.

Democrats

Pew Pollster: Republicans Likely To Retake Control Of The House

Brian Beutler | October 31, 2010, 4:14PM

President Barack Obama

The results of a just-released Pew survey indicate that Democrats will lose control of the House of Representatives in Tuesday's election, and the pollster says there's practically no conceivable way that Democrats can turn it around in the next two days.

"There's a pretty strong correlation between the popular vote and how many seats each party gets...this poll suggests Republicans are going to win enough seats to retake control of the House," Pew Research Center President Andrew Kohut said in an interview. "Generally when there's a last minute surprise in the polls it's because there's a trend that's in progress and goes right into and through election day itself."

No such trends exist.

Read more »

OH-GOV

Polls Show Late Surge For Strickland In OH-GOV, But Kasich Narrowly Ahead

Eric Kleefeld | October 31, 2010, 3:47PM

Governor Ted Strickland (D-OH) and Gubernatorial candidate John Kasich (R-OH)

The Ohio gubernatorial race is tightening in the final days of the campaign, with incumbent Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland seriously cutting into the lead of Republican former Rep. John Kasich in two separate polls.

The new Columbus Dispatch mail-in poll gives Kasich 49%, Strickland 47%. The survey of likely voters has a ±2.3% margin of error. In the previous Dispatch poll from early September, Kasich led by 49%-37% -- meaning that Kasich's support has stayed the same, while Strickland has made an enormous net gain.

In Public Policy Polling's (D) survey, Kasich has 49% to Strickland's 48%. The survey of likely voters has a ±2.7% margin of error. In the previous PPP survey from late August, Kasich had a much stronger lead of 50%-40%.

The TPM Poll Average gives Kasich a lead of 48.1%-45.6%, but with some clear recent momentum to Strickland's blue line against Kasich's red one. Will it be enough to change the result?

Read more »

Sarah Palin

Sarah Palin Accuses Media Of Conspiring Against Joe Miller, Suggests CBS Stands For 'Corrupt Bastards Club'

Brian Beutler | October 31, 2010, 2:22PM

Former GOP Vice Presidential candidate Sarah Palin

Sarah Palin is out for blood (again) this time against an Alaska CBS affiliate. She's accusing the station's reporters of conspiring against Joe Miller, calling them "bastards" and suggesting that the initials CBS stand for "Corrupt Bastards Club." The station is strongly defending itself, though, calling her claims entirely unfounded.

Palin, Miller, and their supporters are basing their accusations on a snippet of audio they leaked to Andrew Breitbart's website Big Government. The audio is weak, and it's hard to suss out the context, but what you can hear sounds like KTVA reporters facetiously explaining how to turn a story into a sensation: specifically, jesting about finding a child molester who's voting Republican and tarring Miller by association. The conversation took place after one of the reporters left a message for a Miller spokesperson, but accidentally failed to hang up.

Palin took to Twitter and Fox News Sunday to gin up outrage.

Read more »

CT-SEN

Mr. McMahon Rumbles The Vote At WWE Show In Connecticut

Eric Kleefeld | October 31, 2010, 12:38PM

CT Sen. candidate Linda McMahon (R) and WWE CEO Vince McMahon.

World Wrestling Entertainment held a raucous, reduced-price event yesterday in Connecticut, with attendees encouraged by CEO Vince McMahon to vote on Tuesday, and to wear their WWE merchandise when they do so. And of course, this officially was not any kind of corporate promotion of Republican Senate nominee Linda McMahon, the former WWE CEO and Vince's wife and business partner.

The New Haven Independent reports:

Vince McMahon stepped into the ring after the divas departed. "You may think I am here to talk politics," Vince McMahon said, "but nothing could be further from the truth."

He encouraged WWE fans to vote on Tuesday and to "feel free to wear a WWE T-shirt" to the polls. He also urged them to "Stand up for WWE." Professional wrestling has been given a bad rap, he said. "We've been subject to ridicule by elitists," he said. Those "elitists" would like to tell people what they should and shouldn't watch on TV, he said. He asked fans "to stand up for what you want to watch ... for what you think is appropriate for your family to watch.".

Read more »

John Cornyn

Cornyn 'Concerned' About Joe Miller's Nosedive In Alaska Senate Race

Brian Beutler | October 31, 2010, 11:50AM

Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX)

NRSC Chairman John Cornyn this morning acknowledged that the GOP Senate nominee in Alaska, Joe Miller, is in real trouble. But, he added, his party will be satisfied if incumbent Repbulican-turned-independent Lisa Murkowski prevails as a write-in candidate.

"We are supporting the nominee of our party, which is Mr. Miller, and -- but are concerned," Cornyn said. "I think that polls are very close now between Senator Murkowski and Joe Miller, and what we want to make sure of is that the Democrat doesn't win."

Cornyn was responding to an earlier report that the GOP had largely given up on Miller, who's tanked dramatically in the polls in recent days. Murkowski and Miller are running against Democratic nominee Scott McAdams.

PA-SEN

Muhlenberg Tracking Poll: Toomey Keeps 2-Point Lead For PA-SEN

Eric Kleefeld | October 31, 2010, 11:35AM

Pennsylvania Senate candidates Pat Toomey (R) and Joe Sestak (D)

The new Muhlenberg daily tracking poll of the Pennsylvania Senate race has Republican Pat Toomey maintaing a narrow lead against Democrat Joe Sestak.

The numbers: Toomey 45%, Sestak 43%. The survey of likely voters has a ±4.5% margin of error.

Yesterday's tracking poll -- which overlaps this one by three days out of the four-day sample -- had an identical Toomey lead of 45%-43%, after several previous days that had Toomey with stronger leads.

The TPM Poll Average gives Toomey a lead of 47.7%-43.4%.

Read more »

Robert Menendez

Menendez: Temporary Extension Of Bush Tax Cuts Possible

Brian Beutler | October 31, 2010, 10:53AM

Sen. Bob Menendez (D-NJ)

Appearing with his Republican counterpart this morning on ABC's this week, DSCC chairman Robert Menendez floated the idea of temporarily extending the Bush tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans.

"I certainly believe that there may be some opportunity for a temporary approval of some of these cuts, Menendez said. "We well not support...a permanent extension, four trillion dollars."

Congress will have to address the expiring Bush tax cuts during the coming lame-duck session or else all of them will lapse, including on the middle class.

DE-SEN

One Last Dance For Christine O'Donnell And The Tea Party Express In Delaware

Evan McMorris-Santoro | October 31, 2010, 10:16AM

Christine O'Donnell

In Wilmington, Delaware this afternoon, the Tea Party Express will take Christine O'Donnell on one more trip around the dance floor before the election music stops. With just hours to go before Election Day, the Republican Senate nominee and and the Tea Party Express are likely set for different paths: O'Donnell to an almost certain loss to Democrat Chris Coons, and the group to what's sure to be some post-election tea party infighting. But today, they will share the same stage one more time.

[TPM SLIDESHOW: Christine O'Donnell: Anti-Masturbation Crusader. Witchcraft Dabbler. Republican Senate Nominee.]

The group's final bus tour of the campaign cycle is rolling to a stop Monday, but not before touching down in Delaware, where Tea Party Express money and resources helped O'Donnell defeat the GOP establishment pick, Mike Castle, in this September's Republican primary.

Since that time, O'Donnell has come to represent the best and the worst of the tea party phenomenon. Her ability to knock off Castle -- an odds-on favorite for the seat, with the endorsement of just about everyone in mainstream Republican politics -- was indicative of the tea party's ability to scare the pants off the establishment. That could have a big effect on how the party moves forward if the GOP wins big on Tuesday. But O'Donnell's apparent failure to engage voters in Delaware beyond her tea party base also tells a tale of the tea party: the one where candidates find themselves trapped underneath the movement's sometimes eccentric policy views.

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