The results of a just-released Pew survey indicate that Democrats will lose control of the House of Representatives in Tuesday’s election, and the pollster says there’s practically no conceivable way that Democrats can turn it around in the next two days.
“There’s a pretty strong correlation between the popular vote and how many seats each party gets…this poll suggests Republicans are going to win enough seats to retake control of the House,” Pew Research Center President Andrew Kohut said in an interview. “Generally when there’s a last minute surprise in the polls it’s because there’s a trend that’s in progress and goes right into and through election day itself.”
No such trends exist.
If anything the current dynamics have been steady for months, and almost all favor the Republicans. “There’s not too much that’s surprising because it mirrors the last three polls,” Kohut said. “The Republicans enjoy a sizable lead in enthusiasm…. It shows independents heavily supporting the GOP.”
The poll finds that likely voters are more inclined to vote Republican by a 48-42 margin.
Among independents likely to vote, 45 percent say they’re voting GOP, 32 percent say Dem. That’s almost a complete reversal from the 2006 midterms, when 42 percent of independent likely voters were planning to vote Democrat and 35 percent planning to vote Republican.
The survey was conducted from October 27-October 30, and is based on phone interviews with 3005 adults.
Brian Beutler
Brian Beutler is TPM's senior congressional reporter. Since 2009, he's led coverage of health care reform, Wall Street reform, taxes, the GOP budget, the government shutdown fight, and the debt limit fight. He can be reached at brian@talkingpointsmemo.com.
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