Top Obama adviser David Plouffe told reporters today that the extreme positions of Christine O’Donnell, Sharron Angle and Rand Paul have had a measurable effect on improving Democratic voter enthusiasm and will make a “pronounced impact” on the 2012 presidential battle.
Plouffe said Democrats initially thought candidates like Angle and Paul would be “unique situations to their states,” but when O’Donnell splashed onto the national scene with her ideas, the tea party extremism became a national force.
“She was … the icing on the cake in terms of this,” he said.
Plouffe said he sees a strong likelihood that moderate Republicans such as Sen. Richard Lugar and Olympia Snowe would face nasty primary challenges and a more conservative Republican primary electorate in 2012. He also believes presidential contenders in 2012 will be led around by similar far-right activists.
“This is absolutely the tip of the iceberg. If you’re a moderate Republican thinking about running for office in 2011 and 2012, you need to have your head examined,” Plouffe said. “You’re probably going to see many Christine O’Donnell’s all over the country. This goes from their presidential nominee all the way down to the local level.”
For this year, Plouffe believes O’Donnell’s storyline is helping the party with one month to go before the midterms.
“It’s had an effect,” he said. “It’s one of the reasons Democrats are saying they are more likely to vote.”
He said it’s had a tangible effect in states such as Delaware and Nevada where the Democrats now stand a much better chance of maintaining their hold on those Senate seats. But he also believes the tea party-fueled insurgents are the reason the DNC had a record fundraising month in September and is seeing increased volunteer activity and voter enthusiasm in states such as Ohio.
“This is not a benign threat,” Plouffe said.
He said in response to a question from TPM that “some” of the extreme GOP nominees — O’Donnell, Paul, Angle, Joe Miller, Ken Buck and far-right House candidates — will win. Come 2012, the voters who propelled them to primary wins this year will turn out to presidential forums and caucuses events and skew the party further right.
“The gate which you have to get through … in a Republican primary is going to be farther to the right,” he said.
“I don’t get any sense that they are going to wake up on November 3rd and if they don’t have the election of their dreams they will say, ‘Well it’s because we weren’t moderate enough,’ … The Becks, the Limbaughs, the Palins, the DeMints are going to say ‘We need more true conservatives,’” Plouffe said.
“These guys are going to be running through hoops to please the far-right folks who are the accolades of Sarah Palin, though maybe she’ll be running herself. Something tells me we won’t get that lucky.”
Plouffe said at candidate forums for 2012 hopefuls, “All of the energy is going to be among Christine O’Donnell and Rand Paul-type voters. And that’s what they are going to have to cater to and I think it’s going to have catastrophic consequences for their party.”
Plouffe said he thinks suburban married women are key voters that Democrats can win back thanks to extreme Republican candidates.
“When voters evaluate the Republican party, the old Republican party they don’t like, they are seen more negatively than Democrats in Congress, which is not a high bar to pass, but they are,” he said. “This is where the direction of the Republican party is … it worries voters.”
Plouffe, Obama’s campaign manager in 2008, is advising the president on political strategy and is housed at the Democratic National Committee through the midterms. He wouldn’t speculate on his next career moves.
Other coverage from Plouffe’s briefing is here, here and here.
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