New polls out this morning confirm that the Pennsylvania Senate race has gotten very tight, and very quickly, with Democrat Joe Sestak catching up rapidly after Republican Pat Toomey had previously led by strong margins.
Toomey had led in polls for months, but Sestak is now making a serious race of it in the home stretch. In some ways, this is a lot like Sestak’s win in the Democratic primary over incumbent Sen. Arlen Specter — the political world had largely written him off, but then undecided voters broke heavily his way in the end. Will it be enough this time, too?
The new daily tracking poll from Muhlenberg, conducted over a four-day period: Sestak 43%, Toomey 43%. The survey of likely voters has a ±5% margin of error. In the previous, overlapping survey from yesterday, Sestak had taken a lead of 44%-41%.
The numbers from Quinnipiac: Toomey 48%, Sestak 46%. The survey of likely voters has a ±3% margin of error. In the previous survey from a month ago, Toomey was ahead by 50%-43%.
The TPM Poll Average has Toomey holding on to a narrow advantage of 46.4%-43.9%, largely the on the strength of previous surveys that gave him wider leads.
Eric Kleefeld
Eric Kleefeld joined TPM as an intern for the final months of the 2006 midterm elections, and then kept showing up for work. His other interests include guitars, old comic books and the politics of various English-speaking countries.
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