A new Siena poll of the NY-23 House district finds that this race could still be a contentious three-way race — even though Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman, the star of last year’s topsy-turvy special election, has dropped out. The problem: A lot of his voters might not know that he dropped out — and his name remains on the ballot — and he still splits the conservative vote and thus helps Democratic Rep. Bill Owens.
The initial numbers: Owens 42%, Republican nominee Matt Doheny 31%, and Hoffman 15%. When Hoffman backers are informed that he dropped out, the numbers change to Owens 44%, Doheny 39%, and Hoffman at only 1%. The survey of likely voters has a ±4% margin of error. There is no prior Siena poll of this race for direct comparison.
For what it’s worth, it’s also a good thing for Republicans that Hoffman narrowly lost the Republican primary against the establishment-backed Doheny, and subsequently threw his support the GOP’s way. Only 28% view Hoffman favorably, with 55% unfavorable. By contrast, Owens’s favorable rating is 46%-35%, and Doheny’s is 36%-34%.
Eric Kleefeld
Eric Kleefeld joined TPM as an intern for the final months of the 2006 midterm elections, and then kept showing up for work. His other interests include guitars, old comic books and the politics of various English-speaking countries.
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