Over the last four weeks, The Hill and pollster Penn Schoen Berland have polled 42 toss-up congressional districts across the country, in an attempt to predict the magnitude of the upcoming election’s congressional shakeup. The latest poll foresees a tough election day for the Democrats.
The survey’s numbers suggest that Republicans are poised to win more than enough seats to take control away from the Democrats in the House next year. With the party needing to pick up 39 seats for majority control, The Hill’s data suggests they are likely to take 50 or more.
All but two of the 42 districts polled currently have a Democrat in office. Out of these selected districts, polling found the Republican candidate leading in 31 races, with 4 other contests tied. Democrats had a polling lead in only seven districts.
The Hill notes that there are 15 Democratically controlled districts that are leaning so heavily toward a GOP victory that polling wasn’t even conducted on the races.
The poll’s data extends beyond Congressional horseraces, as it sheds some light on President Obama’s role in the potential shakeup. Not a single district polled gave Obama an approval rating above 50%. Among independent voters, who recent surveys have found leaning more in favor of Republican candidates, the President’s approval rating never eclipsed 41%. Among all districts polled, at least 68% of respondents stated their sentiments about Obama would be important when heading to the polls next week.
In the survey’s last round of polling, Republicans lead six out of 10 toss-up districts controlled by Democratic veterans.
According to the TPM Poll Average, Republicans are ahead in the generic congressional ballot question 49.6%-42.0%.