This afternoon, the House of Representatives will vote on — and likely pass — the White House’s tax cut plan. The legislation, which already passed the Senate, will likely go straight to President Obama’s desk, and here’s why:
The House’s influential rules committee has OK’d a vote on one key amendment — to stiffen the plan’s estate tax provision. The overwhelming majority of Democrats support lowering the threshold, and raising the rate of the estate tax in the plan — in fact the House has passed estate tax legislation that does just that.
But if this amendment passes, it would scuttle the entire deal. So House leaders will not whip for it and many Democrats who support a more progressive estate tax will vote to kill the amendment to preserve the deal. At a press conference yesterday, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said she’d “love to see” the House pass a higher estate tax. But all week, Democratic members have tacitly acknowledged the hard truth — that the legislation will have to pass the House either unaltered, or after only very modest changes.
The key remaining question is what mix of Democrats and Republicans will align to pass the plan. A handful of conservative, but influential Republicans, including Reps. Mike Pence (R-IN) and Michele Bachmann (R-MN) have announced their opposition to the bill, as have numerous Democrats.
We’ll update you when the vote comes down.
Brian Beutler
Brian Beutler is TPM's senior congressional reporter. Since 2009, he's led coverage of health care reform, Wall Street reform, taxes, the GOP budget, the government shutdown fight, and the debt limit fight. He can be reached at brian@talkingpointsmemo.com.
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