Jeb Bush may not be considering a return to elective politics, but if he were, a Senate seat could well be within his reach.
In a PPP poll released today, Bush was the only Republican to lead Sen. Bill Nelson (D-FL) in theoretical 2012 matchups. The poll found that 49% of respondents said they would vote for Bush if he ran for the seat, while 44% said they would vote for Nelson.
Rep. Connie Mack was the only other candidate tested in the survey to come within single digits of Nelson, polling just eight points behind, 44% to 36%. Sen. George LeMieux — who was appointed to fill the Senate seat vacated by Mel Martinez in 2009, but who did not seek reelection this year — trailed Nelson 47% to 36%, while Florida Senate President Mike Haridopolos polled 12 points behind Nelson, 44% to 32%. Against State Rep. Adam Hasner, Nelson led 46% to 30% in the poll.
Bush’s strong showing is clearly a result of his high favorability rating in the state. Fifty-one percent of respondents said they had a favorable opinion of the state’s former governor, versus 40% who had an unfavorable opinion.
By contrast, Nelson’s job approval rating is a scant 36%, compared to a 33% disapproval rating, according to the poll. An additional 31% said they had no opinion of their senator’s job performance.
Though Nelson leads in most matchups, he may have reason to worry about the other candidates as well; they’re all, at least for now, virtually unknown to over half of Florida voters.
Fifty-six percent of respondents didn’t know Mack well enough to form an opinion of her, and 58% had the same problem with LeMieux. Even fewer people had heard of Haridopolos (30%) and Hasner (22%.)
The PPP poll was conducted December 17-20 among 1,034 Florida voters. It has a margin of error of 3.0%.
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