A new Public Policy Polling (D) survey of Minnesota finds that Minnesotans far and wide say that Democrat Mark Dayton was the winner of the gubernatorial race — he leads by about 9,000 votes — and that Republican nominee Tom Emmer should concede.
Still, it looks like Republicans could be gearing up to legally contest the gubernatorial race at the conclusion of the recount process.
The poll asked: “Do you think the rightful winner of the Governor’s race was Mark Dayton or Tom Emmer?” The answer was Dayton 68%, Emmer 21%. Democrats say it was Dayton by 95%-3%, independents say Dayton by 72%-13%, and Republicans only say Emmer by a plurality of 46%-37%
The next question: “Do you think Tom Emmer should concede the Governor’s race or not?” The answer here was 68% yes, 22% no — nearly identical to the previous number on who the rightful winner is, with internal numbers that closely match it given the margins of error.
Keep in mind that Minnesota has a recent history with statewide recounts. The 2008 Senate recount began with incumbent Republican Sen. Norm Coleman ahead by just over 200 votes, only to see Democratic nominee Al Franken take a similarly thin lead. After six months of additional litigation — during which time the state had only one Senator, Democrat Amy Klobuchar — the state Supreme Court upheld Franken’s victory and Coleman ultimately conceded. Franken was then seated in July 2009, six months and one day after his term would have normally begun.
“Tom Emmer is likely hurting his future political prospects by drawing out the race for Governor,” writes PPP president Dean Debnam. “Voters in the state, including many who voted for him, think that Mark Dayton was the rightful winner of the election.”
Going into the recount, Democratic nominee Mark Dayton led by 8,770 votes, or 0.42%. While this is within the 0.5% needed to trigger a statewide recount, many observers had doubted that Emmer could pull ahead, as Dayton’s lead was probably too wide to be reversed in light of the experience from 2008. However, a possible drawn-out legal contest could potentially result in Republican Gov. Tim Pawlenty staying in office in the interim, with the opportunity to work with a newly elected Republican legislature
On Friday, Emmer declared that the recount was “merely a step in the process,” and signaled that he could try to make hay out of a different issue, relating to precincts where there are more votes than people who are listed on the register. Then over the weekend, Emmer signaled that he was not going to give up, telling the state GOP executive committee: “We’re not going away regardless what happens. We’re stickin’ around.”
Eric Kleefeld
Eric Kleefeld joined TPM as an intern for the final months of the 2006 midterm elections, and then kept showing up for work. His other interests include guitars, old comic books and the politics of various English-speaking countries.
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