Ohio

Ohio Voters Emphatically Reject Kasich's Anti-Union Law

Eric Kleefeld | November 8, 2011, 9:21PM

Ohio Democrats, who got absolutely creamed in the 2010 elections, have now won a major victory over Republican Gov. John Kasich -- massively winning a referendum to repeal Kasich's anti-public employee union law.

With 19% of precincts reporting -- which includes a significant chunk of the total ballots, due to early-votes being counted quickly -- the bill known as SB 5 is losing by a margin of 63%-37%, and the "No" position has been projected as the winner by the Associated Press.

Pre-election polling showed the No campaign winning by over 20 points -- and it seemed possible at time of writing that the final margin might even surpass this.

As TPM has documented, SB 5 has become a political poster child for Democrats pushing against Republicans, following the 2010 GOP wave, with the Dems and labor unions mobilizing while at the same time Kasich's popularity tanked in the polls.

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2011 Elections

Poll: Ohio Set To Vote Big Against Kasich's Anti-Union Law

Eric Kleefeld | November 6, 2011, 10:38PM

Gov. John Kasich (R-OH)

A new survey from Public Policy Polling (D) shows Ohio Democrats and public employee unions likely to win a big victory on Tuesday in the referendum on Republican Gov. John Kasich's anti-public union bill, SB-5.

The poll shows only 36% of Ohioans will vote to support the law, while a decisive 59% oppose the bill and will vote to repeal it.

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Ohio

Kasich: We Can Win Just Like 'Big Championship Game' (Which Never Happened)

Eric Kleefeld | November 4, 2011, 10:57AM

Gov. John Kasich (R-OH)

Ohio Gov. John Kasich (R) is fighting an uphill battle in next week's referendum on his anti-public employee union legislation, triggered by a Democratic petitioning effort. And his latest effort to turn things around is -- an embarrassingly incorrect sports metaphor.

The Columbus Dispatch reports:

"We never thought (former Cleveland Browns quarterback) Bernie Kosar would bring the Browns back and win that big championship game," Kasich said.

Kasich, a Steelers fan who grew up in suburban Pittsburgh, apparently didn't know that Kosar never won a championship game with the Browns, going 0-3 in AFC title tilts with trips to the Super Bowl on the line.

Oh yeah, "that big championship game." Or to put this more simply: D'oh!

(Via Huffington Post)

2011 Elections

Ohio Great-Grandma Fires Back In New Ad: 'They Must Be Desperate' (VIDEO)

Eric Kleefeld | October 14, 2011, 5:44PM

We Are Ohio, the progressive group leading the campaign in the referendum on whether to sustain or repeal Gov. John Kasich's new law SB 5 -- getting rid of most collective bargaining rights for public unions -- has a new ad that once again stars senior citizen Marlene Quinn. This new ad comes in response to a spot from a conservative group -- which sampled Quinn's previous ad, and twisted things to make it sound like she should (or actually did) support the anti-union law.

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Wisconsin Recalls

Wis. Dems To Launch New Round Of State Senate Recalls

Eric Kleefeld | October 14, 2011, 10:43AM

Wisconsin Democrats just recently announced their official campaign to recall Republican Gov. Scott Walker, following their near-miss earlier this year to recall their way to a majority in the state Senate. But that's not all: The recall-Walker campaign will also include another bite at recalls for the state Senate.

Under Wisconsin's recall law, elected officials must have served at least one year of their current term before being recalled -- thus exempting earlier this year the half of the Senate that was just elected in 2010. With half of the state Senate up for election every two years, this meant that only those senators who were last elected in 2008 could be targeted for recalls during this past year (and also that the attempt to recall Walker would have to wait). But now, headed into 2012, that ceiling has been lifted.

"There is an opportunity here, given the large-scale effort under way, to target some of the senators who stood by Walker," state Dem spokesman Graeme Zielinski told the Wisconsin State Journal. "You will know in time who we're targeting."

On the other side, Republicans are in turn eyeing recall counter-efforts against Dems. "At this point, no decisions have been made, but all options are on the table. We will wait and see what the Democrats decide to do, and then weigh our options and move forward," said Dan Romportl, executive director of the Committee to Elect a Republican Senate.

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Ohio

Pro-Union Group Blasts 'Deceitful' Campaign Vid In Ohio Referendum

Eric Kleefeld | October 12, 2011, 12:50PM

The campaign in Ohio for this November's referendum, on whether to sustain or repeal Gov. John Kasich's new law SB 5 -- getting rid of most collective bargaining rights for public unions -- just got a lot uglier.

Now, the Dayton Daily News reports, some TV stations are pulling an ad from the pro-bill campaign -- and splicing it into an ad for the anti-bill campaign, and making it look like the woman in the earlier spot favored the bill.

Last week, the progressive group We Are Ohio released an ad starring a senior citizen, Marlene Quinn, talking about how firefighters saved the life of her grand-daughter.

"I don't want the politicians in Columbus making decisions for the firefighters, the police, teachers, nurses, or any organization that's helping people," Quinn declares in the ad. "Fewer firefighters could mean the different between life or death -- and that's why I'm voting 'No' on Issue 2."

In response, the pro-SB 5 group Building A Better Ohio has a new spot up, sampling from We Are Ohio.

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Wisconsin State Legislature

Wis. Election Officials: Waukesha County Clerk Failed To Follow Election Laws -- But Did Not Tamper With Court Race

Eric Kleefeld | September 28, 2011, 3:40PM

Waukesha County Clerk Kathy Nickolaus (R), April 7, 2011.

The Wisconsin Government Accountability Board, which oversees elections in the state, has released its report on the controversial April election for state Supreme Court -- where vote-counting problems in Waukesha County resulted in the announced discovery of un-tabulated votes, putting incumbent conservative Justice David Prosser ahead in the state Supreme Court race against his liberal-backed opponent JoAnne Kloppenburg. The report finds probable cause to believe that Waukesha County Clerk Kathy Nickolaus (R) violated the laws and procedures for administering the count -- but that her actions were not willful, criminal misconduct.

Notably, the report concludes that Nickolaus could not have possibly manipulated vote totals, as some members of the public came to believe -- because the City of Brookfield, the center of the vote-counting controversy, had in fact independently reported its correct vote totals to local media sources on election night. However, Nickolaus may have violated the law requiring county clerks to post all detailed results that night, when she made the mistake in calculating the county's spreadsheet.

From the GAB's publicly released report:

As a result of the investigation, the G.A.B. has issued an order requiring Clerk Nickolaus to conform her conduct to law and take certain steps to ensure accountability and transparency in her Election Night reporting practices prior to the February 2012 spring primary. Those steps include releasing detailed results on Election Night, instead of only county-wide figures. Had Clerk Nickolaus reported all results separately on Election Night, her failure to include numbers from the City of Brookfield would have been apparent immediately, rather than the next morning when she discovered the problem.

"Your actions following the April 5, 2011 Spring election did not conform to the legal requirements imposed on county clerks," G.A.B. Chairperson Thomas H. Barland said in a letter to Clerk Nickolaus. "When one election official fails to act consistent with those responsibilities, steps must be taken to correct the failure in order to prevent it from recurring, and to restore public confidence and trust in the administration of elections."

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Ohio

Kasich: Defeat In SB5 Referendum Would Make Ohio A 'Slow, Heavy Labor State'

Eric Kleefeld | September 9, 2011, 2:26PM

Gov. John Kasich (R-OH)

Ohio Gov. John Kasich (R) has a dire warning about what could happen if his newly-passed law to weaken collective bargaining for public employee unions were to be repealed in a referendum in November: It would send a message to businesses that Ohio is "slow" and "heavy", and too beholden to labor unions.

"If we don't win this, the setback is how does Ohio get labeled in the minds of companies around this country," Kasich told the Canton Repository. "Is it a slow heavy labor state? Which tends to scare decision makers, CEOs.

"It's just important we win this. I mean if we don't win, it it'll be a setback to economic growth. But I think we're going to win."

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NY-09

GOP Pollster: Republican Ahead For Anthony Weiner House Seat

Eric Kleefeld | September 6, 2011, 2:45PM

NY-09 candidates Bob Turner (R) and David Weprin (D)

Republican polling firm Magellan Strategies has a new survey for next Tuesday's NY-09 special election to replace Anthony Weiner -- showing Republican candidate Bob Turner ahead of gaffe-prone Democrat David Weprin in this historically Democratic district.

The numbers: Turner 44.6%, Weprin 40.4%, plus 3.2% for Christopher Hoeppner of the Socialist Workers Party. The survey was conducted in one day, on September 1, and has a ±2.16% margin of error.

The survey found Weprin underperforming against what should be expected for a Democrat in the district. The poll asked a generic ballot question, several questions before the actual named-candidate horse race. That result found a generic Democrat leading in the district with 44.8%, with a generic Republican at 39.9%.

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NY-09

GOP Candidate For Weiner House Seat: 9/11 Health Law Shouldn't Cover Volunteers

Eric Kleefeld | August 24, 2011, 2:00PM

NY-09 candidate Bob Turner (R)

Bob Turner, the Republican candidate in the NY-09 special election to replace former Rep. Anthony Weiner (D), is criticizing the new law providing health-care aid to 9/11 rescue workers and volunteers who have suffered health problems from exposure to toxic debris.

"I probably couldn't go home if I didn't support the Zadroga bill. I have firemen in my family, but is that bill beyond criticism? No," said Turner, the New York Daily News reports, referring to the law signed this past January by President Obama. The law is named after the late NYPD Detective James Zadroga, who died of a respiratory illness attributed to his having breathed in toxic dust at the World Trade Center site.

"My call would be to protect police, fire, emergency workers, construction workers, etc," Turner explained, also adding: "If someone said, 'I volunteered' or walked through there, it's just not the type."

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NV-02

Polls Up In The Air For NV-02 Special Election

Eric Kleefeld | August 23, 2011, 12:32PM

NV-02 candidates Mark Amodei (R) and Kate Marshall (D)

The Nevada NV-02 special election, being held after Republican incumbent Dean Heller was appointed to the U.S. Senate, could be going down to the wire -- or it could be an easy blowout hold for the Republicans, depending on which poll you read. The election is being held September 13.

A new Daily Kos/Public Policy Polling (D) survey gives Republican former state Sen. Mark Amodei 43%, Democratic state Treasurer Kate Marshall 42%, American Independent Party candidate Timothy Fasano 3%, and independent Helmuth Lehmann 3%. The survey of likely voters was conducted from August 18-21, and has a 4% margin of error.

By contrast, a recent survey from Magellan Strategies (R) gave Amodei a lead of 48%-35%, with Fasano at 4% and Lehmann at 2%. This survey of likely voters was conducted from August 15-16, and has a 3.82% margin of error.

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NY-09

Candidates Debate In Special Election For Weiner House Seat

Eric Kleefeld | August 23, 2011, 11:14AM

NY-09 candidates Bob Turner (R) and David Weprin (D)

The candidates for the NY-09 special election, to fill the seat vacated by the resignation of former Democratic Rep. Anthony Weiner, met for a debate on Monday night. Along with disagreement over the country's fiscal issues and the social safety net, shots were taken on such topics as President Obama's call for Israeli-Palestinian negotiations based around the pre-1967 borders, and the long fought-over proposal for an Islamic community center near the World Trade Center site.

The New York Times reports on the debate between Democrat David Weprin and Republican Bob Turner:

Some topics discussed at the forum have already been talked about at length during the campaign: Mr. Turner criticized the Muslim community center planned near ground zero, calling it an unnecessary provocation, and Mr. Weprin emphasized his support for Israel and said he disagreed with President Obama for saying that Israel's pre-1967 border should be the basis for a peace agreement.

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Ohio

Kasich Opponents: Repeal Your Anti-Union Law -- Then We'll Talk

Eric Kleefeld | August 18, 2011, 5:33PM

Ohio Gov. John Kasich (R)

The Ohio labor and progressive-backed political group that is behind the referendum to repeal Gov. John Kasich's new law, which would weaken collective bargaining rights for public unions, has a response to his offer on Wednesday for compromise: We'll sit down and talk -- after you repeal the bill in its entirety.

"We are asking you for a fresh start, and that fresh start must begin with a full repeal of Senate Bill 5," the group declared in a letter released Thursday, with emphasis in the original.

"A complete repeal of Senate Bill 5 would go a long way toward creating an environment for compromise, restoring trust in government by the electorate and setting the table for meaningful negotiations about creating jobs, rebuilding Ohio's economy and moving the state forward."

As such, it seems as if the most likely scenario is that the bill will not be repealed, and the referendum will go forward this November -- with the bill's opponents currently ahead in the race.

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Ohio

Kasich: Let's Make A Deal On My Anti-Union Bill -- And Call Off The Repeal Referendum

Eric Kleefeld | August 17, 2011, 3:34PM

Ohio Gov. John Kasich (R)

Ohio Gov. John Kasich (R) on Wednesday offered a deal to the state's public employee unions: Let's compromise on my law stripping away your collective bargaining rights -- and withdraw the referendum where you could get it repealed.

The Columbus Dispatch reports on Kasich's press conference, at which he was also joined by top Republican legislative leaders:

Kasich said avoiding a fight is in "best interest of everyone, including public employee unions." He asked the unions to "set aside political agendas and past offenses."

The governor said the offer stems from him being a "believer in talking," and not out of "a fear we are going to lose." Kasich asked for a delegation of 10 public employee union leaders to talk with state officials.

The law has not actually taken effect, but was put on hold by the petition process that triggered the referendum for this November. A recent Quinnipiac poll from this past July showed that repealing the bill had a lead of either slightly under or over 20 points, depending on the wording of the question.

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Wisconsin Recalls

Dem Incumbents Win Last Two Wisconsin Recalls, GOP Holds Slim Senate Majority

Eric Kleefeld | August 16, 2011, 11:01PM

The Wisconsin state Senate recalls of 2011 -- in which tens of millions of dollars and countless man-hours were spent, almost resembling Congressional races -- are officially over. Tuesday night, Democratic incumbents Jim Holperin and Robert Wirch fended off their Republican challengers, for a final state Senate margin of 17 Republicans to 16 Democrats, just shy of the Dems' original goal of taking control of the chamber via recalls.

The Associated Press has projected both Holperin and Wirch as the winners in their respective races. With 78% of precincts reporting in Holperin's race, he led Republican opponent Kim Simac by 54%-46%. With 99% reporting in Wirch's race, he won by a margin of 57%-43%.

Holperin was always considered the most vulnerable Democrat. As the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel's rankings of the state Senate districts shows, Holperin represents the most Republican-leaning district that is currently held by a Democrat. It voted 57.4%-40.8% for Scott Walker in the Republican wave of 2010, though before that Barack Obama carried it 52.7%-45.7% during the 2008 Democratic wave. But in the end, he pulled through the challenge, and by a wider margin than his original 51%-49% election to the seat in 2008.

Another fun fact: This was Holperin's second recall of his political career. Back in 1990, then-state Rep. Holperin faced a recall election in a backlash over the more local issue of newly-reinstated Native American spearfishing rights. Holperin won that election, later went on to be state Tourism Secretary, and in 2008 was narrowly elected to the state Senate by 51%-49% in an open-seat race, to succeed a retiring Democrat.

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Wisconsin Recalls

Poll: Wis. Voters Unsure On Walker Recall

Eric Kleefeld | August 16, 2011, 12:41PM

Gov. Scott Walker (R-WI)

Is it still possible for Wisconsin Democrats to recall Gov. Scott Walker, following their narrow failure last week to take control of the state Senate via recall elections? New survey numbers from Public Policy Polling (D) suggests that the answer is unclear -- and a lot would seemingly depend on whether they can recruit a top candidate, such as former Sen. Russ Feingold.

Walker's approval rating is still underwater, with 45% approval to 53% disapproval. However, a later question asked: "Would you support or oppose recalling Scott Walker from office before his term is up?" The answer was 47% support, to 50% oppose -- down slightly from a 50%-47% support margin in a PPP survey from late May, though both are within the margin of error.

However, Wisconsin recalls do not function as an up-or-down vote on the incumbent. Instead, if a number of people equal to 25% of the number of votes in the last gubernatorial election were to sign petitions (plus a buffer for disqualified signatures), then the election would be called. At that point, it would effectively become a special election, with the incumbent challenged by other candidates.

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Wisconsin Recalls

Poll: Incumbent Dems Lead In Final Two Wisconsin Recalls

Eric Kleefeld | August 15, 2011, 12:11PM

The Wisconsin recalls -- in which Dems narrowly failed in their ambitious uphill effort to win control of the state Senate by targeting GOP incumbents -- aren't over just yet, with two more races on Tuesday targeting Democratic incumbents. And in the latest polling from Public Policy Polling (D), commissioned by Daily Kos, the two Dems are favored to win their races.

Of course, in a way these races have much lower stakes than last week's contests, in which Democrats gained two seats, short of the magic three needed to take control. But the question tomorrow is whether Dems will consolidate those gains, for a new Republican majority of just 17-16, or be busted back down to the 19-14 margin that existed at the start of the year.

In the 12th district, Democratic state Sen. Jim Holperin leads Republican Kim Simac by 55%-41%, with a ±2.6% margin of error. In the 22nd district, Democratic state Sen. Robert Wirch leads Republican Jonathan Steitz by 55%-42%, with a ±2.9% margin of error.

An obvious caveat is that these recall elections have been very unusual, lacking a normal statistical model to make projections, and are thus difficult to poll. With that said, PPP's pre-election polls for last week's races were within a few points of the actual results.

Wisconsin Recalls

Walker Says Wisconsin Doesn't Want More Recalls (Against Him)

Eric Kleefeld | August 10, 2011, 4:39PM

Gov. Scott Walker (R-WI)

Coming off of Tuesday's state Senate recall elections, Democrats remain determined to recall Gov. Scott Walker next year, though they were unsuccessful in their ambitious goal of taking a majority in the state Senate. But for his part, the prospective recallee Walker says the people of Wisconsin don't want yet another election.

"I think setting aside me, if you went around and talk to the average voter, the best thing they like about today is the ads are gone, at least outside of these two remaining Senate districts," Walker said, the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.

"I've heard repeatedly from people who are just disgusted at all the ads, disgusted at all the money. They're tired of seemingly year-round campaigning, and whether it's a gubernatorial recall, any other recall, I don't think there's a whole lot of enthusiasm for having a whole 'nother wave of ads and money come into the state of Wisconsin."

Democrats had hoped to flip the Republicans' 19-14 state Senate majority by gaining at least three seats. When the votes were counted in the six Republican incumbents' districts, though, the Dems gained two seats for a 17-16 GOP majority, with two remaining recalls next week in districts held by Democratic incumbents.

Wisconsin Recalls

Priebus Toasts Wis. Recalls: 'We Need To Have A Country Of Makers, And Not A Country Of Takers' (VIDEO)

Eric Kleefeld | August 10, 2011, 2:14PM

Republican National Committee chairman and Wisconsin native Reince Priebus is very upbeat about the results of Tuesday's state Senate recalls, in which Republicans were able to retain their majority. And what's more, he says it presents a valuable lesson -- and a pocket-sized John Galt speech -- for the whole nation.

MSNBC host Contessa Brewer asked Priebus what message could be 'extrapolated' from the recalls, which were launched by the Democrats and organized labor in a backlash against Gov. Scott Walker's new law eliminating most collective bargaining rights that public employee unions had previously enjoyed. Democrats picked up two seats, just short of the three that they needed in order to flip control of the chamber.

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Wisconsin Recalls

Wis. Dems: The Recalls Were A Win For Us!

Eric Kleefeld | August 10, 2011, 1:38PM

Wisconsin Democrats are proclaiming great news from Tuesday night's state Senate recalls -- in which they were unable to pick up the needed three seats to gain control of the chamber, instead picking up two seats. And moreover, they are still bullish in their pledge to launch another recall -- this one against Gov. Scott Walker next year.

"Last night's recall elections were tremendously historic," state Dem chair Mike Tate said on a conference call with reporters Wednesday afternoon. "I think they show how vulnerable the Republicans are going into 2012, and how vulnerable Governor Walker is going into a potential recall himself."

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2011 Elections

Wisconsin Recall Turnout: How High Can It Go?

Eric Kleefeld | August 9, 2011, 1:10PM

So far, so good in the Wisconsin state Senate recalls, which as of midday have, according to reports, been proceeding smoothly.

Reid Magney, spokesman for the state Government Accountability Board, which oversees elections in the state, said that the GAB has not yet received any calls about incidents at any polling places, nor updates about turnout. The overall call volume to the GAB's central office has been only low to medium -- and coming from an interesting source for problems.

"We've had calls from people who want to know where they vote, and it turns out they don't live in one of the Senate districts, so they're unhappy about that," said Magney. "And that's what happens when you've got elections that happen in certain districts, but people in the media markets are seeing ads about it and not realizing who their senator is."

As WisPolitics reports, city clerks in some municipalities say that turnout could be near the level of a presidential election -- though this is not true across the board, with other being closer to the hotly-contested state Supreme Court election this past April.

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Wisconsin Recalls

The Wisconsin Recalls: Voting Now Underway

Eric Kleefeld | August 9, 2011, 9:51AM

The polls are now open in Wisconsin for the big event: Six recall elections targeting incumbent Republican state senators, in a backlash against Gov. Scott Walker's anti-public employee union law and other budget decisions, with the potential for control of the state Senate to be flipped to the Democrats after just seven months of one-party GOP government.

The polls opened at 7 a.m. CT, and will close at 8 p.m. CT. Under Wisconsin's recall laws, these elections are effectively special elections, with the incumbents each facing a Democratic challenger in a head-to-head race. And given the unusual nature of these races, it is nearly impossible to predict who will win, with everything riding on turnout.

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Wisconsin Recalls

Polls: Wisconsin State Senate Recalls Down To The Wire

Eric Kleefeld | August 8, 2011, 1:19PM

Updated at 3 p.m. ET.

A new round of Daily Kos/Public Policy Polling (D) numbers for the Wisconsin recalls, conducted over the past weekend in four out of the six Republican-held seats on the ballot Tuesday, show these contests headed down to the wire. Democrats have a clear lead in one race, Republicans in another, and the other two in statistical dead heats.

However, there is a very important caveat to any polls of these races: There is simply no standard statistical model or frame of reference for these very unusual mass recalls. As such, no prediction is really safe, and election-watchers just have to wait until the votes are counted Tuesday night. Everything will ride on the parties' turnout operations.

In the 32nd district, Democratic challenger Jennifer Shilling leads GOP state Sen. Dan Kapanke by 54%-43%, beyond the ±3.4% margin of error. Meanwhile in the 10 district, GOP state Sen. Sheila Harsdorf leads Democrat Shelly Moore by 54%-42%, outside the 2.7% margin of error.

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Wisconsin Recalls

Fitzgerald: Wisconsin Recalls Have Become A 'Referendum' (VIDEO)

Eric Kleefeld | August 8, 2011, 11:40AM

Wisconsin state Senate Majority Leader Scott Fitzgerald (R)

Wisconsin state Senate Majority Leader Scott Fitzgerald (R) appeared Monday morning on Fox News, ahead of Tuesday's recall elections targeting six GOP state Senators -- and cast the contest as a referendum on Gov. Scott Walker's policies rolling back collective bargaining for public employees, and whether other states would follow the same path.

Fox host Bill Hemmer asked whether Democrats, if successful in gaining control of the chamber, would be able to reverse the state's budget policies targeting public employee unions and their ability to collectively bargain.

"No, I mean, the Republican Assembly remains in place, as well as obviously Governor Walker," said Fitzgerald. "But I think, you know, what this has become is more of a referendum on whether or not what happened in Wisconsin in February and in March should be the way the state moves forward.

"We have a balanced budget, we certainly have had great success in eliminating the deficit, of which many other states throughout the nation are facing right now. And the unions are trying to send a signal that if they can recall this Republican state Senate, then this was the wrong direction for us.

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Wisconsin Recalls

This Week: The Moment Of Truth For The Wisconsin State Senate Recalls

Eric Kleefeld | August 8, 2011, 6:00AM

This is a big week in Wisconsin -- the culmination of months of protests, campaigning, legislative battling and litigation, since Republican Gov. Scott Walker began an ultimately successful push to strip public employee unions of their collective bargaining rights. On Tuesday, voters will head to polls in six state Senate recalls, where Republican incumbents are all facing stiff Democratic challenges, with the possibility that Dems could flip control of the chamber and end one-party GOP rule after just seven months. And the vote will be closely watched nationally, read as a referendum on the wider anti-union push that other GOP governors have also undertaken.

The state Senate currently has a 19-14 Republican majority, with Democrats needing to gain at least a net three seats to gain control on the senate. (And even this would not be the end of it -- they hope to recall Walker some time next year.) All in all, this is the closest this country's system of government can get to a snap parliamentary election, with control of the chamber up for grabs.

Back in July, Democratic state Sen. Dave Hansen easily won re-election in his recall race against a very flawed GOP challenger, after the party's originally recruited candidate failed to collect enough valid petition signatures to get onto the ballot. Next week, two Democratic incumbents will be on the ballot in their own recalls, so even if Democrats pick up as many as four seats Tuesday, it would not be known for certain whether they have gained the chamber until after another week.

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Wisconsin Recalls

Walker On The Recalls: 'If Given The Facts They're Going To Make Good Decisions'

Eric Kleefeld | August 5, 2011, 10:50AM

Gov. Scott Walker (R-WI)

This Tuesday six state Senate recalls will be held in Wisconsin against Republican incumbents, launched in a backlash against Gov. Scott Walker's policies against public employee unions, with the potential for control of the chamber to flip to the Democrats. And for his part, WisPolitics reports, Walker now says that result is "out of our hands" and with the voters.

"I believe if given the facts they're going to make good decisions," Walker told reporters, after a ceremony opening the State Fair in Milwaukee. "Sometimes they're going to be decisions that side with me, sometimes they're going to be with others, but I'm going to respect their decision."

However, Walker stood by his predictions that voters would realize the benefits of his legislation: "I think slowly they will see, and overall the school programs have gotten better."

Wisconsin Recalls

Wis. GOPer: If You Don't Like What We Did, Wait For 2012 Instead Of Recalling Me

Eric Kleefeld | August 4, 2011, 3:20PM

State Sen. Alberta Darling (R-WI)

One of the targeted Republican state Senators in this Tuesday's Wisconsin recalls, Alberta Darling, is headed into the home stretch with an interesting message: That the recall should not even be happening, and voters who don't like the policies that have been enacted under Gov. Scott Walker should wait for the 2012 legislative races.

"We have elections. Elections have consequences. If you don't like what's happening, make a change in the next election," Darling said at a debate on Wednesday, WisPolitics reports. "We did. The (2010) election said, 'make a change,' and we did. We flipped the Assembly, the Senate and the governor's house. And you know what? If you don't like what we're doing, go vote in the 2012 elections. We listened to the people in 2010."

Whatever one's attitude is about recalls as an idea, one thing is still certain: The state constitution provides for recalls under a process that was triggered through sufficient signatures, so the election is on. As such, it is unclear whether such an argument will do much to attract voters in a race that will rely heavily on both parties turning out their base.

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Wisconsin Recalls

Liberal Groups' Wisconsin Ad: 'I've Voted Republican In The Past' But Not Now (VIDEO)

Eric Kleefeld | August 4, 2011, 10:35AM

Ad from Progressive Change Campaign Committee, Democracy For America Wisconsin, and MoveOn

The liberal groups Progressive Change Campaign Committee, the Wisconsin division of Democracy For America, and MoveOn have a new ad up in the state Senate recalls, going after one of the higher-value targets, state Joint Finance Committee co-chair Alberta Darling.

The ad features a local resident, introducing himself as a teacher. "To me, nothing is more important than education," the man says. "But Alberta Darling voted for budget cuts that hurt our community schools, all to give tax cuts to the rich and big corporations."

"I've voted Republican in the past. I've voted for Ronald Reagan, George Bush and George W. Bush. And I've voted for Alberta Darling. But we need someone on our side -- I'm voting for Sandy Pasch for State Senate."

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Wisconsin Recalls

Badger State Bucks: Lots Of Money Spent On The Wisconsin Recalls

Eric Kleefeld | August 4, 2011, 6:00AM

It is now the home stretch of the Wisconsin state Senate recalls, with six elections this Tuesday targeting incumbent Republicans -- which could potentially flip control of the chamber to the Democrats -- to be followed by two more elections targeting Democrats the week after. And the usually obscure world of state legislative races has seen a lot of money flooding into the state.

As the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports, the labor-backed group We Are Wisconsin announced that it raised a total of $9.7 million for the recalls. The numbers are not as clear on the other side, but the paper reports that conservative groups are estimated to have actually spent slightly more than the liberals on the elections, though not by a huge margin.

For example, the Capital Times reports that the Club For Growth's Wisconsin division has spent an estimated $3 million to $4 million on issue ads in the races -- compared to just $1 million they had previously spent in the state in the last four years.

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Wisconsin Recalls

Wis. Dems: Internal Polls Show Us Winning The State Senate

Eric Kleefeld | August 2, 2011, 12:20PM

A volunteer waits to gather signatures for a recall petition against Sen. Alberta Darling (R) outside of a polling station at Village Center in Shorewood, Wisconsin, Tuesday, April 5, 2011.

Going into the home stretch of the Wisconsin state Senate recalls, state Democratic Party chairman Mike Tate outlined the party's get-out-the-vote efforts on a conference call with reporters Tuesday -- and claimed that the party's internal polling of the eight races up for grabs shows the Dems favored to win the majority.

The state Senate currently has a 19-14 Republican majority, with Democrats needing to gain at least a net three seats in a backlash against Gov. Scott Walker. (And after that, they hope to recall Walker some time next year.) For next Tuesday, six Republicans will be on the ballot against Democratic challengers, followed the next Tuesday by two more recalls targeting Democratic incumbents.

On the call, in response to a question from Greg Sargent, Tate said of next week's races: "I don't know that I would say that we are going to sweep all six races, but our polling tells that we have leads in three of these races and we are dead tied in three."

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Wisconsin Recalls

Wis. Labor Group Local Office Destroyed In Area Fire

Eric Kleefeld | August 1, 2011, 3:21PM

A fire this past weekend in La Crosse, Wisconsin, destroyed several buildings, including six apartments and a warehouse -- plus the local office of the labor-backed group We Are Wisconsin, a major player in the state Senate recalls taking place next week.

The La Crosse Tribune reported that multiple buildings were seriously damaged by the fire, with We Are Wisconsin's office being one of several entities who were affected.

When contacted by TPM, the La Crosse Fire Department said that the investigation is still ongoing, with no determination yet as to the cause or place of origin for the fire.

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Wisconsin Recalls

Hmm... Labor-Backed Ad Says Scandal-Plagued GOPer Has 'Left Behind' Wis. Families

Eric Kleefeld | July 25, 2011, 6:15AM

We Are Wisconsin PAC TV Ad

The labor-backed group We Are Wisconsin has a new round of ads in the state Senate recalls - including one spot that might raise some eyebrows, targeting Republican state Sen. Randy Hopper.

In addition to the backlash against Gov. Scott Walker's ultra-conservative policies, Hopper is also facing his own political headaches due to a messy divorce -- and claims by his estranged wife that he "now lives mostly in Madison" after having an affair.

"When it comes to standing up for Wisconsin families, Randy Hopper is leaving us behind," the announcer says. "Hopper supported Governor Walker's budget that slashed nearly 800 million from our schools. He supported devastating cuts to seniors' health care. And Hopper voted to raise taxes on middle-class families.

"But who didn't get left behind by Senator Hopper? Big corporations and the super-rich, who got 200 million in tax breaks.

"Put middle-class families first, and send Hopper home."

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2011 Elections

Referendum Officially Triggered In Ohio To Ax Kasich's Anti-Public Employee Union Bill

Eric Kleefeld | July 21, 2011, 12:45PM

Ohio Gov. John Kasich (R)

It's official: As expected in the big swing state of Ohio, where Republicans gained control of state government in the 2010 wave and then enacted a new law to limit collective bargaining for public employee unions, voters will now head back to the polls in November 2011 -- to potentially repeal that same law before it could ever take effect.

If the bill is repealed by voters, it would be a significant defeat to Republican Gov. John Kasich, and a potential dry run for the 2012 campaigns in the state. A Quinnipiac poll released this week showed that repealing the bill had a lead of either slightly under or over 20 points, depending on the wording of the question.

Ohio Secretary of State Jon Husted (R) has certified that the petition process, which put the law completely on hold, has met the signature thresholds, and that the bill be put up to a referendum this November.

This move was widely expected, and was only a matter of working out the bureaucratic process, because it was already public knowledge that organizers had surpassed the minimum signatures by several times over.

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Wisconsin Recalls

VanderLeest: My 34% Vote 'Shows How Well My Message Was Received'

Eric Kleefeld | July 20, 2011, 10:12AM

State Senate candidate David VanderLeest (R-WI)

Republican candidate David VanderLeest, who lost Tuesday's recall election for the Wisconsin state Senate against Democratic incumbent Dave Hansen, doesn't think his nearly two-to-one result was all that bad -- considering how he had almost no money against the well-financed Hansen. And he also wishes the state GOP, who effectively dropped him due to his financial and legal problems, could have helped him out a bit.

With 99% of precincts reporting, Hansen has won by 66%-34%, a raw-vote margin of 20,653-10,604. But Tuesday night, VanderLeest was looking on the bright side.

"We were outspent 1,500 to 1 and lost 2 to 1," VanderLeest told WisPolitics, also adding that he wished the state GOP would have helped his campaign: "I think the support could have been much greater, given that we were the first one out of the chute."

"I'm actually feeling pretty good considering how much I was outspent," VanderLeest also told the Associated Press. "It shows how well my message was received."

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Wisconsin Recalls

PCCC And DFA Launch $100K Ad Buy For Wisconsin State Senate Seat (VIDEO)

Eric Kleefeld | July 20, 2011, 9:42AM

National Democratic money is flowing into the Wisconsin state Senate recalls, with a new $100,000 ad buy from the Progressive Change Campaign Committee and Democracy For America, in just a single targeted race.

Republicans currently control the chamber by a majority of 19-14. Democrats hope to gain a net three seats and win a majority in a backlash against GOP Gov. Scott Walker's anti-public employee union legislation. In other words, control of the chamber is up for grabs.

The ad features a local family in the central Wisconsin district of GOP Sen. Luther Olsen, who is facing Democratic state Rep. Fred Clark in an August 9 recall election, complaining of budget cuts that will result in the closure of the elementary school where their children have gone -- and where Olsen's children previously went to school.

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Wisconsin Recalls

Wis. Dem State Senator Wins Recall In Landslide -- Eight Races To Go

Eric Kleefeld | July 19, 2011, 9:54PM

State Sen. Dave Hansen (D-WI)

Wisconsin Democrats have now won a round in the state Senate recalls, with Dem incumbent state Sen. Dave Hansen easily winning against a politically weak and seemingly troubled challenger, GOP activist and recall organizer David VanderLeest.

With 65% percent of precincts reporting, Hansen is winning by 69%-31%, and has been projected as the winner by the Associated Press.

In two other races, where Republican primaries were being held, the votes are still being counted to determine who will face Democratic state Sens. Robert Wirch and Jim Holperin.

This leaves eight races to go. On August 9, general elections will be held in six races targeting incumbent Republicans. Then on August 16, two more races will be held targeting incumbent Democrats. Republicans currently control the chamber by a majority of 19-14. Democrats hope to gain a net three seats and win a majority in a backlash against GOP Gov. Scott Walker's anti-public employee union legislation. In other words, control of the chamber is up for grabs.

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Wisconsin Recalls

Wis. GOPer VanderLeest: I'll Sue Dems For 'False Slander Chicago Style Mob Politics'

Eric Kleefeld | July 18, 2011, 2:34PM

State Senate candidate David VanderLeest (R-WI)

David VanderLeest, the Republican candidate in Tuesday's Wisconsin recall election against Democratic state Sen. Dave Hansen, is clearly irritated about press coverage regarding revelations about his personal finances and reports of domestic violence (which included a plea of no-contest to two charges of disorderly conduct). So much so, that VanderLeest has announced that he intends to sue Democrats for slander.

As the Green Bay Press Gazette reports: "While VanderLeest said he planned to sue for slander, the alleged violations -- including airing TV ads and sending mailers that defame him -- would constitute as libel, not slander."

VanderLeest made a statement to the press, and released a document entitled "Transcript" from the event, though it contains shorthand that one might make in a rush transcription before reformatting with the full words. Key quote:

False accusations have plagued this campaign. False slander Chicago style mob politics must stop in WI. The buck stops here. We are not going to allow these tactics to destroy tangible debates on real issues which face WI. The people will stand not for it, and neither will I. I truth is I was never found guilt of Domestic Violence in the State of WI. I was given primary care of my child in a messy divorce, and was never found guilty of abusing anyone. For these reasons I will be filling a slander lawsuit against Friends of Dave Hansen, DLCC, Greater WI Political Fund, We are WI, Politiscoop, The Green Bay Progressive, and One WI Now.

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Wisconsin Recalls

Poll: Incumbent Wis. Dem Set To Smoke GOPer In Tuesday's Recall

Eric Kleefeld | July 18, 2011, 1:19PM

State Senate candidate David VanderLeest (R-WI)

Tuesday is the general election for one race in the Wisconsin state Senate recalls. And now a new Daily Kos/Public Policy Polling (D) survey shows Democratic incumbent Dave Hansen set to steamroll his Republican opponent -- thanks at least in part to some Republican blunders in the nomination of that particular candidate.

The numbers: Dave Hansen 62%, Republican nominee David VanderLeest 34%. The poll of 1,301 likely voters was conducted from July 15-17, and has a ±2.7% margin of error.

As the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel's district rankings show, this district voted for Scott Walker for governor in 2010 by a margin of 53.5%-44.9% -- but before that, it voted for Barack Obama for president by 56.5%-42.1%. So this area does have the potential swing around, depending on turnout.

In a way, VanderLeest's showing in this poll seems like an impressive, automatic Republican vote for a candidate who has been plagued by questions about his fitness for office, after revelations about his personal finances and reports of domestic violence (which included a plea of no-contest to two charges of disorderly conduct). VanderLeest also recently distinguished himself with the quote: "None of it's true. I don't smoke rocks, and that's the truth."

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Wisconsin Recalls

Wis. GOP Recall Candidate: 'I Don't Smoke Rocks, And That's The Truth'

Eric Kleefeld | July 15, 2011, 11:43AM

State Senate candidate David VanderLeest (R-WI)

David VanderLeest, the Republican candidate in next week's Wisconsin recall election targeting Democratic state Sen. Dave Hansen, is continuing to rebut stories of his legal and financial problems. Allegations about his personal finances and reports of domestic violence in his former marriage have dogged his campaign.

"I read a social services report yesterday that says I smoke crack," said VanderLeest, during an interview on Joy Cardin of Wisconsin Public Radio. "None of it's true. I don't smoke rocks, and that's the truth."

To be clear, VanderLeest was not the GOP's preferred candidate. Instead, Republicans became stuck with VanderLeest after their originally recruited candidate, state Rep. John Nygren, failed to submit the required 400 valid petition signatures. Nygren submitted slightly over 400 signatures for himself -- despite the fact that Republicans had been able to gather 18,000 signatures to trigger a recall -- with not enough of a buffer for when a few them were disqualified. Nygren initially filed a lawsuit to get onto the ballot, but lost in court and announced he would not further appeal the decision.

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Wisconsin Recalls

Wis. GOP Candidate: Let's Talk About The Issues, Not My Legal And Financial Problems

Eric Kleefeld | July 14, 2011, 3:36PM

State Senate candidate David VanderLeest (R-WI)

David VanderLeest, the Republican candidate in next week's Wisconsin recall election targeting Democratic state Sen. Dave Hansen, has signed a pledge that he will not vote to raise taxes -- and does not want to talk about whether he has paid his own taxes, or any of the other personal issues that have dogged his campaign.

The report from the Green Bay Press Gazette cannot be improved upon:

VanderLeest also indicated he did not want to discuss his legal and financial problems that have become the subject of multiple television ads from liberal groups. VanderLeest hasn't paid property taxes in three years, pled no contest to two misdemeanor disorderly conduct charges related to allegations of domestic abuse and has a bankruptcy, home foreclosure and unpaid settlement from 2006.

...

VanderLeest refused to answer questions about the liberal blog PoliticScoop, which reported VanderLeest receives financial assistance from the state despite being critical about welfare programs.

VanderLeest added: "We're not talking about anything but the issues of the state of Wisconsin."

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