In 2008, John McCain took perennial red state South Carolina by a nine point margin over Barack Obama in the presidential election. Looking forward to 2012 though, Obama seems poised to make that race a little tighter — or to win it outright if Republicans nominate a particularly polarizing candidate like Sarah Palin, according to a new PPP poll.
In the poll, Obama trailed Mike Huckabee by a six point margin, 49% to 43%. He also lagged seven pints behind Mitt Romney, 49% to 42%. While neither result is really close enough to make the race a toss up, they do show the contest being slightly more competitive next year.
However, if the GOP nominates Palin or Gingrich — or even tea partying native son Sen. Jim DeMint — the race is a wholly different story.
Against Gingrich, Obama eked out a slim 44% to 43% lead in the poll. He did even better against Palin, comfortably leading her 47% to 41%. And Obama evem came close to DeMint, the state’s popular conservative Senator, trailing by just two points, 47% to 45%.
Obama is hardly popular in South Carolina. The poll pegged his approval rating at just 44%, compared to a 52% disapproval rating.
Yet Palin and Gingrich are even more unpopular there, with both posting double-digit net unfavorable ratings. Thirty-two percent of respondents had a favorable opinion of Gingrich, compared to 46% who had an unfavorable opinion of him — and while 34% of respondents viewed Palin favorably, an overwhelming 58% viewed her unfavorably.
As for DeMint, he posted a strong approval rating in the poll, with 49% of respondents saying they approved of his job performance versus 34% who disapproved. However, a PPP release earlier this week found that only 40% of he state’s Republicans wanted DeMint to run for president, while nearly as many — 37% — said he should not.
South Carolina has only gone to the Democratic presidential candidate only once since 1960, when Southerner Jimmy Carter carried the state in 1976. Otherwise, it’s been a reliable Republican stronghold. President George W. Bush won the state by 16 points in 2000 and by 17 points in 2004.
Obama pushed the state closer to the Democratic column in 2008 and, if any of these Republicans wins the party’s primary next year, he could nudge it even closer in 2012.
The PPP poll was conducted January 28-30 among 1,167 registered voters. It has a margin of error of 2.9%.
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