Brian Beutler March 14, 2011, 9:29 AM

Senate Republican leaders in recent days have escalated a showdown that has been lurking in the background of the more immediate fight over funding the federal government through September. While the funding issue remains unresolved, Congress will soon have to turn its attention to the need to raise the national debt limit, or the country will default in just a few weeks.

“There are 53 Democrats and 47 Republicans. My prediction is not a single one of the 47 Republicans will vote to raise the debt ceiling unless it includes with it some credible effort to do something about our debt,” said Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell on Fox News Sunday. “I think to get any of the 47 Republicans, you’ve got to do something credible -that the markets believe is credible, that the American people believe is credible, that foreign countries believe is credible — in addition to raising the debt ceiling.”

One of McConnell’s top lieutenant’s, Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX), was more direct about this. On Twitter, he wrote “[d]ebt ceiling vote is ultimate leverage to get fiscal reform.”

This stands in contrast to comments from House Republican leaders and other influential conservatives over recent weeks and months, all of whom have said failure to raise the debt limit would be calamitous.

In January, for instance, House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) said “that would be a financial disaster, not only for us, but for the worldwide economy.”

But Boehner controls a large majority in the House, where the minority’s rights are limited, and he can presumably pair a debt limit hike with serious spending and entitlement cuts if he wants to.

The Democrats, by contrast, control a small majority in the Senate, where because of filibuster rules, passing a debt limit hike will probably require 60 votes. And if that’s the case, McConnell and Cornyn are saying they’ll block passage unless it’s paired with “fiscal reform,” which in Republicanese means cuts to entitlements.

McConnell offered only one caveat. “I don’t believe Senate Republicans won’t vote to raise the debt ceiling,” he said. “Now Democrats can raise it themselves if they choose to and try to do nothing whatsoever about the problem.”

This suggests the possibility that Republicans will let Democrats try to pass a debt limit hike and then hang the vote on their shoulders like an albatross. But that plan — if that’s the plan — would run into two problems. First, it would require all Senate Republicans to agree not to filibuster, which is unlikely in the Jim DeMint/Rand Paul Senate. And then, of course, it would have to pass the House, where Democrats can’t pass anything without substantial Republican support. So Occam’s Razor suggests we’re about to reach an impasse.

Debt, Debt Ceiling, Entitlement reform, Entitlements, Filibuster, Jim DeMint, John Boehner, John Cornyn, Medicare, Mitch McConnell, Rand Paul, Social Security, Spending