While many observers were skeptical of Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour’s ability to capture the 2012 Republican presidential nomination, his decision not to run frees up an elite group of donors and operatives to find new homes and could leave a crucial bloc of voters up for grabs.
Barbour’s campaign was considered a magnet for top quality staff and the remaining candidates will undoubtedly be reaching out to stranded politicos. Some already have ties to 2012 contenders while Barbours’ close relationship with Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels (R) has led to speculation that an outsize number will join Daniels’ campaign — if he decides to run.
Many of Barbour’s newly released hires are connected to crucial primary states. For example, Barbour adviser Sally Bradshaw, a Florida political strategist, was a top political aide to Gov. Jeb Bush and worked on Mitt Romney’s 2008 campaign. In South Carolina, former RNC communications director Jim Dyke surprised some observers by joining Barbour given that his firm’s partner, Kevin Madden, is one of Mitt Romney’s core supporters.
Michael Dennehy, who ran John McCain’s winning New Hampshire campaigns in 2000 and 2008 before backing Barbour, told TPM he’s not sure if he’ll join up with another campaign. But he believes another candidate could mount a serious challenge to frontrunner Romney in New Hampshire, even though Romney was governor of neighboring Massachusetts.
“Obviously another candidate has yet to emerge, but I think there still is a very large window for a candidate like Haley Barbour,” Dennehy said. “I think some people are waiting to see if Mitch Daniels gets in and can fill that void.”
Barbour’s departure could have a strong impact on South Carolina, where Romney limped to a weak fourth place finish in 2008 while two Southern candidates, Mike Huckabee and Fred Thompson, sucked up a large share of the vote. John McCain narrowly took the state en route to winning the nomination. All indications are that it will be a tough fight for Romney once again, but with Newt Gingrich the closest thing to a traditional Southern candidate, there may be more votes in play.
For former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, the most plausible path to winning the nomination is narrowing the contest to a two-man fight in which he can present himself to as a credible alternative for voters wary of Romney’s record. With another major candidate out of the picture and still no sign from Mike Huckabee or Sarah Palin that they’re running, Pawlenty is a step closer to starting the race in a favorable environment. But there are risks for Pawlenty in Barbour’s departure as well — he leaves behind a large pool of establishment donors, the kind Romney has been most successful at securing so far. The smaller field could also help entice Daniels, an unabashed Barbour fan, to run and compete in the same space as Pawlenty.
Benjy Sarlin
Benjy Sarlin is a reporter for Talking Points Memo and co-writes the campaign blog, TPM2012. He previously reported for The Daily Beast/Newsweek as their Washington Correspondent and covered local politics for the New York Sun.
Facebook Conversations
Questions about commenting with non-Facebook accounts like Yahoo, or other concerns? Click here to read the TPM Commenting FAQ.