A new survey of Utah from Public Policy Polling (D) shows longtime Sen. Orrin Hatch vulnerable for the Republican nomination, trailing his potential opponent Rep. Jason Chaffetz.
The numbers: Chaffetz 47%, Hatch 43%. The survey of Republican primary voters was conducted from July 8-10, and has a ±4.9% margin of error.
Chaffetz, who was first elected to Congress in 2008 by defeating an incumbent in the GOP primary, has been considering a challenge against Hatch. The poll gives Chaffetz a favorable rating of 61%, to 17% unfavorable. Hatch’s approval rating is actually a very similar 60%, to a disapproval of 28%.
However, the poll also asked: “Generally speaking, would you like the Republican nominee for Senate next year to be Orrin Hatch or someone more conservative than him?” The result was Hatch 45%, someone more conservative 44%.
In 2010, Hatch’s then co-Senator Bob Bennett lost his renomination at the state GOP convention — failing to even make it to a primary — when he was unable to gain the support of at least 40% of convention delegates.
Given the rules used for party nominations in Utah, any of four outcomes are possible: Hatch could win outright at the convention; or Chaffetz could win at the convention; or a primary could be forced if nobody gets over 60% delegate support, sending them to a primary where either could win.
Eric Kleefeld
Eric Kleefeld joined TPM as an intern for the final months of the 2006 midterm elections, and then kept showing up for work. His other interests include guitars, old comic books and the politics of various English-speaking countries.
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