A new survey of Utah from Public Policy Polling (D) finds a surprising result: That in this deep, deep, deep-red state, Democratic Rep. Jim Matheson could potentially be a competitive — or even winning — candidate for U.S. Senate.
Matheson, a Blue Dog Democrat, was tested against incumbent six-term Republican Sen. Orrin Hatch, plus GOP Rep. Jason Chaffetz, who could potentially challenge Hatch for the Republican nomination. The result showed Matheson edging out Hatch by 45%-44%, and leading Chaffetz by 47%-42%.
The poll showed Matheson with a 59% favorable rating, to 28% unfavorable. Two other Democrats were tested — former state Attorney General Jan Graham, and 2010 Senate nominee and state Department of Alcoholic Beverage Control chairman Sam Granato — and they both trailed Hatch and Chaffetz by martins of about 20 points in all cases.
Of course, it should be noted that the idea of a Democratic senator from Utah does fall into the category of “believe it when you see it.” And even then, you’d still have your doubts.
Utah is a solidly Republican state, which has not elected a Democratic senator since the 1970 re-election of Sen. Ted Moss (who was originally elected to his first term in 1958, thanks to a split Republican vote in a three-way race). Furthermore, 2012 will be a presidential election year, and the state has not voted Democratic for president since the Lyndon Johnson landslide of 1964. In 2008, it voted for John McCain by 63%-34%.
On the other hand, there is some corroboration for the idea that Matheson could garner a significant personal vote. In mid-June, a survey from Utah pollster Dan Jones for the 2012 gubernatorial race showed Matheson only narrowly trailing incumbent GOP Gov. Gary Herbert, by a 48%-45% margin. And Matheson has been getting elected since 2000 in a Republican-leaning district that voted 58%-40% for John McCain in 2008, and before that voted for George W. Bush by 66%-31% in 2004.
For this new PPP survey, the poll of 732 registered Utah voters was conducted from July 8-10, and has a ±3.6% margin of error.
Eric Kleefeld
Eric Kleefeld joined TPM as an intern for the final months of the 2006 midterm elections, and then kept showing up for work. His other interests include guitars, old comic books and the politics of various English-speaking countries.
Facebook Conversations
Questions about commenting with non-Facebook accounts like Yahoo, or other concerns? Click here to read the TPM Commenting FAQ.