Tim Pawlenty

Michele Bachmann Wins Ames Straw Poll

Benjy Sarlin | August 13, 2011, 5:36PM

Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN)

Michele Bachmann has won the Ames Straw Poll, state GOP chair Matt Strawn announced on Saturday.

Bachmann secured 4823 votes, edging out Ron Paul, who had 4671 votes. Tim Pawlenty finished a distant third with 2293 votes - a disappointing result for the Minnesota governor after investing heavy resources as part of his broader Iowa-focused strategy. He suggested recently that he may have to a "reassess" his campaign if he fails to make an impact in the straw poll.

"We made progress in moving from the back of the pack into a competitive position for the caucuses, but we have a lot more work to do," Pawlenty said in a statement congratulating Bachmann.

Rounding out the rest of the field were Rick Santorum with 1657 votes, Herman Cain with 1456, Mitt Romney with 567, Newt Gingrich with 385, Jon Huntsman with 69, and Thad McCotter with 35. The bottom four, except for McCotter, did not participate in the day's events.

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2012

It's Official: Rick Perry Announces Presidential Bid

Benjy Sarlin | August 13, 2011, 1:28PM

Rick Perry

Introduced as the "jobs governor," Rick Perry threw his hat into the presidential ring with an economy-focused speech at the RedState convention in South Carolina .

"It is time to get America working again," he said. "That's why, with the support of my family, and an unwavering belief in the goodness of America, I declare to you today my candidacy for President of the United States."

Perry played up his roots as the son of working class tenant farmers in West Texas, a biography that could help differentiate him from the ultra-wealthy Mitt Romney. He began his address in solemn and faithful fashion, asking for a moment of silence to pray for the Navy SEALS who were killed in a helicopter crash in Afghanistan last week.

From there he pivoted to a red-meat speech decrying President Obama's economic record, accusing him of trying to raise taxes to build up government and appointing pro-labor members to the NLRB. According to Perry, Obama "prolonged our national misery, not alleviated it."

"There is no taxpayer money that was not first earned by the sweat and toil of one our citizens," he said. "That's why we reject this president's unbridled fixation on taking more money out of the wallets and pocketbooks of American families and employers and giving it to a central government."

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Mitt Romney

Romney's 'Corporations Are People' Comments Prompt A Second Attack Ad

Thomas Lane | August 13, 2011, 11:14AM

GOP Presidential Candidate Mitt Romney (MA)

The Democratic National Committee has put out a second ad slamming GOP frontrunner Mitt Romney for saying "Corporations are people, my friend," in response to a heckler on Thursday.

The moment those words were out of his mouth, it was just a matter of time till they made their way into an attack ad. The first was out in a matter of hours, and made creative use of the Barbara Streisand song, "People."

This new ad lacks Streisand's dulcet tones, but shows the type of 30 second-style attack ads we can expect if Romney winds up getting the Republican nomination. Opening with the comment, "Mitt Romney stands with the Tea Party," it then goes on to air the controversial comments before closing with the slogan, "Mitt Romney: Putting Corporations First."

The DNC is airing the ad in the Des Moines area from Saturday through mid-week.

Watch the video below the jump:

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2012

Romney's Fortune More Than $190 Million

Benjy Sarlin | August 12, 2011, 6:50PM

GOP Presidential Candidate Mitt Romney

Mitt Romney is worth between $190 million and $250 million, according to a financial disclosure report released on Friday.

As is common with politicians, Romney has put his holdings in a blind trust to prevent any conflict of interest. Brad Malt of the law firm Ropes & Gray handles his account, according to a Romney spokeswoman.

The updated numbers make clear that Romney, who made his fortune in finance, successfully weathered the 2008 crisis. He disclosed a similar range on his wealth during his last presidential run four years. The former Massachusetts governor spent $45 million of his own money during that campaign, but has elected to finance his 2012 effort with donor cash alone so far.

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Ames Straw Poll

Perry, Palin, and Polls: The GOP Primary's Wild Weekend

Benjy Sarlin | August 12, 2011, 5:16PM

Ames, Iowa. 2011. Ron Paul Supporters

Saturday is easily the most important day of the Republican primaries so far as the candidates face a major test in Iowa -- and a new challenger enters the arena.

The bulk of the field has been gathered in Iowa all week mingling with locals and noshing on corn dogs as crowds of national reporters follow their every move. The big show is Saturday afternoon as candidates make their final appeal for votes in the Ames Straw Poll, with the ballots closing at 4 PM.

Candidates are already planning all sorts of stunts to attract supporters. Rick Santorum is handing out free jelly. Tim Pawlenty invited Christian rockers Sonicflood. Herman Cain will sing gospel. All three will receive a visit from 2008 Iowa caucus winner Mike Huckabee, who will play bass at their booths.

The poll is totally unscientific, but a strong showing can give candidates a nice shot of positive press. And every candidate besides the state-leading Michele Bachmann is in desperate need of some help in that category. The only other heavyweight in the national polls, Mitt Romney, is not participating (although he's spent the last few days in Iowa). Tim Pawlenty is staking big money on Ames to jolt his lackluster campaign back to life and said on Friday that a flop would require him to "reassess" his approach. For some of the less establishment candidates, like Ron Paul and Herman Cain, a straw poll win could vault them back into the national conversation, much like Huckabee's second place finish helped draw new attention to his campaign and built momentum for his eventual upset victory in the state.

For the middle of the pack candidates, that boost is especially important given who isn't at Ames. That would be Texas Governor Rick Perry, who is expected to announce his presidential campaign in Charleston, South Carolina at a convention organized by right-wing site RedState.com. Perry's perfectly timed entrance threatens to squash contenders' straw poll gains by dominating the news cycle. If they don't break out soon, they could become buried as the race turns into a top-heavy war between frontrunners Bachmann, Romney, and Perry.

As if Perry's announcement isn't enough of a news suck, candidates in Iowa will also have to share headlines with Sarah Palin, who's in Ames. Although there's little evidence Palin is still seriously preparing for a presidential bid at this late stage in the game, she's still doing her best to convince her supporters not to rule her out. "There is still plenty of room in that field for a common-sense conservative," Palin told state fair-goers on Friday. "Watching the debate, not just last night, but watching this whole process over the past year, it has certainly shown me there's plenty of room for more people."

Barack Obama

Obama Heads To Iowa Just Days After Republicans Leave

Susan Crabtree | August 12, 2011, 4:11PM

Just after Republicans leave the critical presidential election state of Iowa over the weekend, President Barack Obama will make his own sweep through the state as part of a Midwest bus tour focused on creating jobs and boosting the economies of rural America.

The trip has attracted its fair share of criticism from the White House press corps who have questioned whether it's simply a taxpayer-funded campaign spring through the upper Midwest, a pivotal swing region that could play a crucial role in determining whether Obama wins a second term.

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Health care lawsuits

11th Circuit: Health Care Law's Individual Mandate Is Unconstitutional

Brian Beutler | August 12, 2011, 2:15PM

In a split decision, a three-judge panel on the 11th Circuit Court of Appeals has determined that the health care law's individual mandate exceeds Congress' Commerce Clause powers and is therefore unconstitutional. However, unlike the district court ruling preceding this case, the judges found the mandate to be "severable" and thus holds that the rest of the law can stand.

In a joint opinion, Judges Joel Dubina -- a Reagan appointee elevated to the circuit court by George H.W. Bush -- and Frank Hull -- a conservative Clinton appointee -- "concluded that the individual mandate exceeded congressional authority under Article I of the Constitution because it was not enacted pursuant to Congress's tax power and it exceeded Congress' power under the Commerce Clause and the Necessary and Proper Clause."

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Super Committee

GOP Pres Candidates Unanimously Reject Massive Spending Cuts If Paired With Trivial Tax Increases (VIDEO)

Brian Beutler | August 12, 2011, 12:01PM

We touched on this in our highlight reel but it's worth considering in isolation since the implications for a coming fight over entitlement cuts and taxes are so enormous.

In last night's debate, each of the eight GOP presidential candidates on stage broke a land-speed record for rejecting a hypothetical, massive, multi-trillion dollar spending cut deal. Why? Because, in the hypothetical, the package would also include tax increases amounting 10 percent of the spending cuts.

None of them even had to stop and think about it. Watch in the clip below how quickly they raise their hands.

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2012

David Axelrod Says He'll Fire Aides Who Call Romney 'Weird'

Benjy Sarlin | August 12, 2011, 11:11AM

Campaign aides who call Mitt Romney "weird" will be kicked off President Obama's re-election team, according to senior adviser David Axelrod.

The term appeared numerous times in a Politico article quoting a number of named and unnamed Democratic strategists on how they planned to attack Romney in a general election.

Appearing on MSNBC on Friday, Axelrod challenged the report's assertion that the aides quoted were connected to the campaign. "No one on my team believes that," he said, calling the article "garbage."

Asked whether he would fire an aide who used the term, he replied "I would. If someone used words like 'weird,' I would certainly do that."

Despite his protestations, Axelrod was quoted in the Politico article offering up some of the Romney campaign trail stories that were cited as evidence of how playing up Mitt's "weirdness" factor might work in a national race. He never used the word himself, however.

"When he makes jokes about being unemployed or a waitress pinching him on the butt, it does snap your head back, and you say, 'What's he talking about?'" he said in the piece.

Debt Ceiling

After Triggering Downgrade, Debt Default Skeptics Try To Run From Their Records -- But They Can't

Brian Beutler | August 12, 2011, 10:16AM

Standard & Poors has a specific justification for downgrading the U.S. bond rating, and it's deadly for Republicans. It wasn't just that Congress showed itself to be reckless and dysfunctional, or that the GOP shows no sign of ever ending their anti-tax jihad. It's that for a period of weeks, some lawmakers (read: Republicans) were quite literally shrugging off the risks of blowing past the August 2 deadline, running out of borrowing authority, and missing payment obligations.

"[P]eople in the political arena were even talking about a potential default," said Joydeep Mukherji, senior directior at S&P. "That a country even has such voices, albeit a minority, is something notable," he added. "This kind of rhetoric is not common amongst AAA sovereigns."

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Polls

Congressional Democrats On The Comeback In The Polls

Kyle Leighton | August 12, 2011, 10:11AM

House Minority Leader Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) and Speaker of the House John Boehner (R-OH)

It's been a fractious summer for Congress: the United States came close to the prospect of defaulting on our debt for political reasons instead of economic ones, there's another looming budget crisis when they return, and Americans hate the legislative body more than ever. So it's not a huge surprise in this era of lightning quick political reaction that Americans are swinging back to the party they just kicked out of the House, according to new Gallup data released Friday and a PPP(D)/Daily Kos survey from earlier in the week.

Both polls showed Democrats taking the lead in the Generic Congressional Ballot, a metric showing who voters generally feel they want to control the House and Senate. Gallup consistently measures it, and Democrats held a healthy lead throughout 2007 to the end of 2009, when the GOP started making gains and eventually led. The Republican high water mark was around election time in 2010, but it didn't last very long: early into 2011 Democrats surpassed them again, the data shows, and have opened up a lead. The newest rating is 51% in favor of a Democratic candidate versus 44% for a Republican one.

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Mitt Romney

Did Mitt Romney Raise Taxes Or 'Close Loopholes'?

Benjy Sarlin | August 12, 2011, 9:40AM

News that then-Governor Mitt Romney's office played up his predecessor's tax hikes to secure a better rating from Standard & Poor's may undercut his hardline anti-tax image. But the S&P story also revives a longstanding debate over Romney's own revenue raisers as governor, an issue that takes on greater significance than it did in 2008 thanks to the recent debt ceiling talks.

On Wednesday, Politico reported on a presentation Romney's office gave to S&P in 2004 touting the strength of the state's budget thanks in part to a 2002 tax increase that he opposed. The presentation also highlighted higher fees and newly closed loopholes that Romney championed himself. While Romney supporters have long argued these policies should not count as tax increases, critics have long insisted otherwise and the S&P story pushes the debate into the headlines once again.

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Elizabeth Warren

Warren Moving Closer To Senate Run?

Michael R. Corjulo | August 12, 2011, 8:46AM

Consumer Affairs and Protection Bureau Director Elizabeth Warren

Rumours of an Elizabeth Warren Senate challenge to Republican Scott Brown (R-MA) grew Thursday as the champion of consumer protection penned a suggestive op-ed in the democratic blog Blue Mass Group.

Addressing Massachusetts voters, Warren gave a brief overview of her life story including a description of the fiscal constraints her family faced during her early childhood, her time in Washington establishing CFPB, and her desire to continue helping the middle class.

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NY-09

It's Baaaack: 'Ground Zero Mosque' Becomes Campaign Issue In Race For Weiner's Seat

Jillian Rayfield | August 12, 2011, 6:00AM

Bob Turner and David Weprin

If you thought the controversy over New York City's Cordoba House Islamic Center was long over, Republican NY-09 candidate Bob Turner wants you to think again.

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Ohio

The Next Labor Vs. GOP Fight: Ohio

Eric Kleefeld | August 12, 2011, 6:00AM

Gov. John Kasich (R-OH)

Following Democrats' and organized labor's near-miss in the Wisconsin state Senate recalls, in which they fell just short of picking up the magic number of seats that would have flipped control of the chamber, the political world will now turn to a new battle: Ohio.

The Wisconsin fight was triggered due to newly-elected Gov. Scott Walker's anti-public employee union legislation, which eliminated most collective bargaining rights that unions had previously enjoyed for decades.

Over in Ohio, where Gov. John Kasich passed similar legislation, labor and other liberal groups have pursued a different tack under that state's election procedures: Triggering a referendum for this November, in which voters will be able to strike down the legislation directly, and which has in fact placed the very law itself on hold pending their decision.

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Michele Bachmann

Bachmann Gets Asked: 'As President, Would You Be Submissive To Your Husband?'

Eric Kleefeld | August 11, 2011, 11:09PM

Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN)

Debate host Byron York asked Michele Bachmann about her past quotes that she became a tax lawyer at her husband's insistence, citing Biblical passages that a wife should be "submissive" to her husband.

"As president, would you be submissive to your husband?" York asked -- prompting vociferous booing from the audience.

"Thank you for that question, Byron," Bachmann responded, to applause. "Marcus and I will be married for 33 years this September 10th. I'm in love with him, I'm so proud of him. And what submission means to us -- if that's what your question is -- is respect. I respect my husband...and he respects me as his wife. that's how operate our marriage. We respect each other, we love each other."

Bachmann then added that together, she and her husband had built a business, raised their children, and raised 23 foster children. "I'm very proud of him."

2012

GOP Fight Night: The Top Five Moments

Benjy Sarlin | August 11, 2011, 11:06PM

Remember that nice friendly New Hampshire debate from June when the GOP's fresh-faced field candidates, still basking in fluffy magazine profiles, joined hands to sing songs of President Obama's failed stimulus? That wasn't this debate.

Instead the candidates mixed it up early and often, even lashing out at the moderators. We compiled the pugilistic highlights, from Tim Pawlenty and Michele Bachmann's snowball fight to Newt Gingrich's war on FOX News, into a video. Read on for the nitty gritty details after that.

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Pres '12

Paul And Santorum Battle Over Iran

Eric Kleefeld | August 11, 2011, 10:52PM

Rick Santorum at the Iowa Faith & Freedom Coalition's Spring Kickoff Event

Sparks flew between Ron Paul and Rick Santorum during Thursday night's Republican debate, over Paul's opposition to a hawkish foreign policy approach against Iran.

"Why wouldn't it be natural that they might want a nuclear weapon? Internationally they would be given more respect," said Paul. "Why should we write people off? We should at least talk to them - Reagan talked to the Soviets."

Paul added that during the Cold War that the Soviet Union and China had many nuclear weapons -- compared to Iran's current efforts to produce just one -- and represented genuine threats to the United States. But America did not go to war with those countries, instead maintaining diplomatic relations.

This prompted a fiery response from Rick Santorum, who boasted of how he had passed legislation to isolate Iran when he was in the Senate.

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Minnesota

Pawlenty vs. Bachmann On Abortion, Taxes: Who Was Right?

Benjy Sarlin | August 11, 2011, 10:44PM

In a very fiery exchange, Tim Pawlenty and Michele Bachmann dueled over the ins and outs of Minnesota's 2005 budget standoff, wading into abortion politics along the way.

For non-Minnesotan observers, however, the debate was likely a blur. So here's a quick and dirty explainer. The big -- and most currently relevant -- compromise on Pawlenty's behalf was a 75-cent fee on cigarette packs, dubbed a tax by critics, in order to free up cash for K-12 education.

"I did agree to the cigarette fee," Pawlenty said in the debate. "I regretted that. The courts held it to be a fee. But nevertheless it was an increase in revenue."

But Bachmann charged, noting that she had been "very vocal against that tax, and I fought against that tax." However, she did in the end vote for the bill that contained it. So what happened?

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Mitt Romney

DNC Mocks Romney's 'Corporations Are People' Claim With Streisand-Scored Video

Benjy Sarlin | August 11, 2011, 8:52PM

Well, that was quick. Several hours after Mitt Romney told an Iowa heckler that "corporations are people, my friend" the DNC is up with a video lampooning the quote. Featuring the smooth sounds of Barbara Streisand's "People," no less.

Restore Our Future

Watchdogs File Complaints Against Two More Pro-Romney 'Phantom Companies'

Susan Crabtree | August 11, 2011, 3:34PM

Mitt Romney

Two campaign-finance watchdogs want the Federal Election Commission and Department of Justice to crack down on the so-called phantom companies that are sprouting up apparently for the sole purpose of allowing anonymous million-dollar donations to the pro-Mitt Romney Restore Our Future Super PAC.

The Campaign Legal Center and Democracy 21 have filed complaints with the FEC and DOJ calling for an investigation into the activities of two companies that appear to have been used to funnel funds to a Super PAC created by former Romney campaign staffers. The complaints come on the heels of a another the two groups filed against the first phantom company, W Spann LLC, was discovered to have masked the true identity of a $1 million mystery donor to Restore Our Future.

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Stimulus

Cut And Grow Fail: CBO Schools Tea Party Freshman In Basic Economics

Brian Beutler | August 11, 2011, 3:15PM

Rep. Tim Huelskamp (R-KS)

This story was updated at 4:40 p.m. to include text from Huelskamp's letter

Rep. Tim Huelskamp (R-KS), a Tea Party-backed freshman who voted against the final debt limit bill, recently asked to hear from the Congressional Budget Office about the impact of government spending on economic growth. It's an article of faith on the right that vastly shrinking government will unleash the forces of private enterprise, and faced with CBO's opposing view, Huelskamp wanted to know the answer to two questions:

1). What current federal departments, agencies, programs, or portions thereof do not contribute to economic growth?

2). In the programs that CBO believes do contribute to economic growth, what level of spending cuts would amount to a level you believe would be significant enough to "probably slow the economic recovery"?

But if the newly elected member of the Budget Committee was hoping the non-partisan CBO would buy into his premise, he'll be sorely disappointed.

In a response letter Thursday, CBO-chief Doug Elmendorf gives Huelskamp a layman's lesson in Keynesian economics: Under current economic circumstances, new federal spending would help economic growth, and current and future cuts could stymie it, particularly if they hit key government investment.

"When demand for goods and services falls short of the economy's ability to produce them, as is the case currently, increasing government spending can increase aggregate demand and thereby narrow the gap between the economy's actual and potential levels of output," Elmendorf writes.

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2012

PPP Poll: North Carolina May Stay Blue

Kyle Leighton | August 11, 2011, 2:07PM

On Thursday morning TPM reported on President Obama's relative strength in Colorado, a swing state with changing demographics that seems to be unimpressed by the GOP field of candidates for President. Now new data from Public Policy Polling (D) shows that the trends are the same in North Carolina, a state that went Democratic for the first time since 1976 in the last presidential election.

Obama doesn't retain massive popularity in the state: his job approval rating is only 46% against 50%, which is below our TPM Poll Average. But despite the recent dip in approval, he remains a more appealing option than candidates from the GOP field. The only matchup within the margin of error is against former Mass. Gov. Mitt Romney, whom Obama outpaces 46 - 43. The President is well ahead of the rest: up in the matchups against Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN) 50 - 40, businessman Herman Cain 50 - 37, former AK Gov. Sarah Palin 52 - 39, and Tex. Gov. Rick Perry 48 - 40, fairly strong considering the speculation that as a southern governor Perry could perform very well below the Mason-Dixon line.

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2012

Michele Bachmann Gets A Super PAC

Benjy Sarlin | August 11, 2011, 1:30PM

Michele Bachmann

Supporters of Michele Bachmann are launching an independent Super PAC to help elect her president, making her the third Republican candidate with the backing of an organization that can accept unlimited donations.

Founder Bob Harris told CNN on Thursday that the new organization Keep Conservatives United will run ads in Iowa playing up Bachmann's record in Congress while also lobbing attacks at Rick Perry, who is expected to enter the race soon.

"Bachmann has the guts to fight the Washington establishment and Rick Perry is just a spoiler," Harris told CNN. "I think his record is not what people think it is."

Super PACs are not allowed to coordinate with the candidates, but can accept unlimited donations, including from corporations. Mitt Romney supporters have raised over $12 million so far for the Super PAC Restore Our Future, which made headlines this month after one donor, former Bain Capital executive Ed Conard, contributed $1 million indirectly through a mysterious corporation that closed within months. Perry backers have already launched multiple competing Super PACs that are currently battling for his supporters' favor.

Nancy Pelosi

Pelosi Names Clyburn, Van Hollen, Becerra To Deficit Super Committee

Brian Beutler | August 11, 2011, 1:04PM

House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-CA)

The roster's now complete. House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) has named her picks to the deficit Super Committee, and they're a familiar bunch: Reps Jim Clyburn (D-SC), Xavier Becerra (D-CA), and Chris Van Hollen (D-MD).

Each of the three has served at her behest on different fiscal working groups in the recent past. All are loyal members, current or former, of her leadership team, all with fairly liberal voting records.

But here are a few caveats...

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2012

Romney: 'Corporations Are People, My Friend' [VIDEO]

Benjy Sarlin | August 11, 2011, 12:45PM

Mitt Romney Holds Campaign Event In Front Of Valley Plaza Mall in Los Angeles, July 20, 2011

Mitt Romney told an Iowa crowd on Thursday that the country should not raise taxes to shore up Medicare and Social Security because "corporations are people" too.

Responding to a question from an audience member as to why Social Security should be included in deficit talks when it doesn't add to the deficit, Romney drifted into a defense of corporate rights.

"Corporations are people, my friend," he said. "Of course they are."

After receiving jeers from the audience over the quote, he elaborated: "Everything corporations earn goes to people. Where do you think it goes? Whose pockets? People's pockets. Human beings, my friend."

Romney went on to suggest raising the retirement age rather than increasing taxes on business in order to fix entitlement programs' shortfalls.

A video of the key quote below:

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Israel/Palestine

Gingrich: Cut Off U.N. Funding If They Recognize Palestinian State

Eric Kleefeld | August 11, 2011, 12:10PM

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-GA)

In a new column published on Wednesday at Human Events, Newt Gingrich calls for the United States to respond strongly to the expected move by the Palestinians to seek statehood at the United Nations in September -- by threatening to cut off American funding to the U.N.

Gingrich writes:

The United States has the leverage to prevent this diplomatic disaster if the Obama Administration wants to use it: we are by far the largest donor to the U.N., financing roughly a quarter of its entire budget.

We should be willing to say that if the U.N. is going to circumvent negotiations and declare the territory of one of its own members an independent state, we aren't going to pay for it. We can keep our $7.6 billion a year.

We don't need to fund a corrupt institution to beat up on our allies.

Gingrich explains that back in 1989, the administration of President George H.W. Bush used the same approach with the U.N. to prevent the extension of statehood to the Palestinians.

Read more »

Polls

CNN Poll: The Only GOPer Who Beats Obama Is....Probably Not Running

Kyle Leighton | August 11, 2011, 11:30AM

Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R) and former Gov. Mitt Romney (R-MA)

New data from the latest national CNN poll out on Thursday shows that the distance between President Obama and his possible GOP opponents is tightening among the declared (Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN), former Mass. Gov. Mitt Romney) and nearly declared (Tex. Gov. Rick Perry) GOP frontrunners. But it also showed that there was one Republican candidate in the poll who outpaced Obama in a matchup, 51 - 45. That candidate was former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani. Just one problem...he's probably not running.

Other candidates did have a decent showing against Obama: the President was ahead of Romney only by a point, 48 - 47, and Perry was able to pull within five points, at 51 - 46, despite not even announcing or having a formal campaign yet. Even Bachmann, beginning to sag in the polls due to the entrance of Perry, was able to get close to the President at 51 - 45.

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Health Care

DeMint: Obama Administration The 'Most Anti-American' In My Lifetime

Brian Beutler | August 11, 2011, 11:25AM

Jim DeMint

Conservative power-broker Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC) ran through his litany of complaints about President Obama on Janet Meffered's Christian conservative radio show Wednesday, and concluded that of all the anti-American administrations in his lifetime, Obama's is the most anti-American.

"We saw within a few days that this President was going to be heavy-handed, he was going to implement his agenda and pay back his political allies, and it just went on from there to ObamaCare and then to Dodd-Frank," DeMint said.

It has been the most anti-business and I consider anti-American administration in my lifetime. Things that are just so anathema to the principles of freedom, and everything he has come up with centralizes more power in Washington, creates more socialist-style, collectivist policies. This president is doing something that's so far out of the realm of anything Republicans ever did wrong, it's hard to even imagine.

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2012

Dem Senator Says Economy 'Strong' Same Day DSCC Attacks GOPer Over Similar Quote

Benjy Sarlin | August 11, 2011, 11:04AM

Sen. Dick Durbin (D-IL)

The second highest ranking Democrat in the Senate, Dick Durbin (D-IL) told a local TV station on Wednesday that the economy is "strong" despite the S&P downgrade. While largely in line with the White House's views on the downgrade, his comments came the same day that Democrats attacked Sen. Dick Lugar (R-IN) over a near identical quote.

"I still think the fundamentals of the U.S. economy are sound," Durbin told FOX Chicago News. "I don't care what S&P says."

In a press release yesterday, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee condemned Lugar as "out of touch" for telling a local TV station: "The American economy is still strong, that we're making progress although it's very slow in terms of job creation, and that we still have a dollar that is the world currency and we are still selling bonds to everybody all over the world despite the S&P downgrade."

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2012

Mitt Romney Touted Tax Increase To S&P In '04 Presentation

Benjy Sarlin | August 11, 2011, 9:57AM

Mitt Romney

Mitt Romney insisted that Republicans rule out any tax increases in negotiations to avoid a debt ceiling default, but as governor of Massachusetts they were a key selling point in his efforts to raise the state's S&P rating.

In a presentation from 2004 obtained by Politico's Ben Smith, the Romney administration touted a 2002 tax increase of over $1 billion approved by his predecessor as evidence the state was in good fiscal health. According to the 50-page presentation, Massachusetts "successfully managed revenue and expense positions" in 2002 and 2003 and "acted decisively to address the fiscal crisis."

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Polls

PPP: Obama Leads The GOP Field In Colorado

Kyle Leighton | August 11, 2011, 6:00AM

President Obama, then a senator, at the 2008 Democratic National Convention in Denver, CO

The prelude to the 2008 election included months of speculation about how then candidate Obama might redraw the political map--and whether that rehash of the political fault lines would be permanent or temporary. Colorado was very much part of that discussion: a state with changing demographics that has elected both Democrats and Republicans to statewide positions in the past decade.

A new poll from Public Policy Polling (D) shows President Obama hasn't exactly endeared himself to the voters in Colorado, as his approval rating is at 46% against 50% disapproval. But the new survey really exposes a major indicator in the 2012 process: despite being at a low point in the current national polls, the GOP field is so weak that no Republican candidate even gets within the margin of error against the President in the Rocky Mountain state.

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Debates

Iowa Showdown: Five Stories To Watch In Tonight's GOP Debate

Benjy Sarlin | August 11, 2011, 6:00AM

Jon Huntsman, Mitt Romney, Herman Cain, Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN)

You might say that 2012 really starts tonight. At 9pm Eastern time, the declared Republican presidential candidates take the stage at Iowa -- barely two days ahead of the Ames Straw Poll, which many consider the unofficial first round of the primary season.

Of course, this debate will also be interesting for who it doesn't have: Texas Governor Rick Perry. Today he made it official that he'll be declaring his candidacy on Saturday. His shadow is sure to loom large over tonight's proceedings.

TPM's livewire will keep you updated of the night's events as they happen. We'll also be posting blog posts, fuller articles, and video throughout the evening.

Meanwhile, in preparation for the debate itelf, here's TPM's advice on what to look for:

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Jon Bruning

GOP Senate Candidate 'Regrets' Comparing Poor People To Scavenging Animals

Benjy Sarlin | August 10, 2011, 6:57PM

Nebraska Attorney General and GOP Senate candidate Jon Bruning caused a stir this week when he compared welfare recipients to raccoons scavenging for insects. According to an aide, he's since realized he may not have picked the best metaphor for the poor.

"It was an inartful statement and one Jon regrets making," Bruning campaign manager Trent Fellers told the Associated Press in a statement. "As Attorney General, Jon's been a strong supporter of welfare reform and giving welfare recipients a hand up and not just a hand out."

In a video released by liberal tracker American Bridge 21st Century on Tuesday, Bruning told an audience about a misguided environmental program that collected endangered beetles in buckets using rat carcasses as bait -- only to be thwarted when raccoons raided the buckets for the tasty bugs.

"The raccoons figured out the beetles are in the bucket," Bruning said. "And its like grapes in a jar. The raccoons - they're not stupid, they're gonna do the easy way if we make it easy for them. Just like welfare recipients all across America. If we don't incent them to work, they're gonna take the easy route."

Super Committee

Sherrod Brown Hugs Rob Portman -- Claims He's Open To Closing Deficit With Taxes

Brian Beutler | August 10, 2011, 5:32PM

Senator Sherrod Brown (D-OH)

Surely Super Committeeman Sen. Rob Portman (R-OH) will appreciate his fellow Ohioan Sherrod Brown (D-OH) vouching for his willingness to compromise.

"Rob has shown a willingness to find common ground by looking at both tax reform and spending cuts in order to reduce the deficit," Brown said in a statement after GOP leaders announced their six appointees.

Read more »

Wisconsin Recalls

Walker Says Wisconsin Doesn't Want More Recalls (Against Him)

Eric Kleefeld | August 10, 2011, 4:39PM

Gov. Scott Walker (R-WI)

Coming off of Tuesday's state Senate recall elections, Democrats remain determined to recall Gov. Scott Walker next year, though they were unsuccessful in their ambitious goal of taking a majority in the state Senate. But for his part, the prospective recallee Walker says the people of Wisconsin don't want yet another election.

"I think setting aside me, if you went around and talk to the average voter, the best thing they like about today is the ads are gone, at least outside of these two remaining Senate districts," Walker said, the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.

"I've heard repeatedly from people who are just disgusted at all the ads, disgusted at all the money. They're tired of seemingly year-round campaigning, and whether it's a gubernatorial recall, any other recall, I don't think there's a whole lot of enthusiasm for having a whole 'nother wave of ads and money come into the state of Wisconsin."

Democrats had hoped to flip the Republicans' 19-14 state Senate majority by gaining at least three seats. When the votes were counted in the six Republican incumbents' districts, though, the Dems gained two seats for a 17-16 GOP majority, with two remaining recalls next week in districts held by Democratic incumbents.

Wisconsin Recalls

Priebus Toasts Wis. Recalls: 'We Need To Have A Country Of Makers, And Not A Country Of Takers' (VIDEO)

Eric Kleefeld | August 10, 2011, 2:14PM

Republican National Committee chairman and Wisconsin native Reince Priebus is very upbeat about the results of Tuesday's state Senate recalls, in which Republicans were able to retain their majority. And what's more, he says it presents a valuable lesson -- and a pocket-sized John Galt speech -- for the whole nation.

MSNBC host Contessa Brewer asked Priebus what message could be 'extrapolated' from the recalls, which were launched by the Democrats and organized labor in a backlash against Gov. Scott Walker's new law eliminating most collective bargaining rights that public employee unions had previously enjoyed. Democrats picked up two seats, just short of the three that they needed in order to flip control of the chamber.

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Wisconsin Recalls

Wis. Dems: The Recalls Were A Win For Us!

Eric Kleefeld | August 10, 2011, 1:38PM

Wisconsin Democrats are proclaiming great news from Tuesday night's state Senate recalls -- in which they were unable to pick up the needed three seats to gain control of the chamber, instead picking up two seats. And moreover, they are still bullish in their pledge to launch another recall -- this one against Gov. Scott Walker next year.

"Last night's recall elections were tremendously historic," state Dem chair Mike Tate said on a conference call with reporters Wednesday afternoon. "I think they show how vulnerable the Republicans are going into 2012, and how vulnerable Governor Walker is going into a potential recall himself."

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Polls

What America Wants From The Super Committee - By The Numbers

Kyle Leighton | August 10, 2011, 12:40PM

Since the establishment of the congressional super committee to come up with a way to reduce the deficit by over $1.5 trillion over ten years, most of the focus has been on who will be appointed and how those individual personalities will affect the debate, or whether the hearings will be public. But over the past few days news organizations have released new polling data on what policy prescriptions Americans would actually prefer, mostly from a menu of traditional options (cuts to major programs, well known new tax options), to bridge the budget gap.

CNN, Gallup, and Marist all polled some of these options, and here's a quick rundown of what might happen if you put the American people at the table.

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Super Committee

GOP Leaders Pick Conservative Members To Serve On Deficit Super Committee

Brian Beutler | August 10, 2011, 12:19PM

House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY)

House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) have announced their selections to serve on the new so-called Super Committee -- the panel called for in the debt limit bill that's been tasked with reducing deficits by at least $1.2 trillion.

McConnell's picked his Whip, Jon Kyl (R-AZ), as well as conservative freshman Sen. Rob Portman (R-OH), and arch-conservative Sen. Pat Toomey (R-PA).

Boehner tapped Reps. Jeb Hensarling (R-TX), chair of the GOP conference, and the caucus' top message man; Dave Camp (R-MI) chair of the Ways and Means Committee, which controls tax revenue; and Fred Upton (R-MI), whose powerful Energy and Commerce Committee has broad jurisdiction over just about everything other than taxes, but particularly health care.

As head of the majority party in the House of Representatives, Boehner was asked to name the committee's GOP co-chair, and for that he chose Hensarling -- an extremely conservative member who in recent weeks falsely characterized the debt limit fight as a consequence of spending policies enacted by President Obama and past Democratic congresses. By quite a ways, most existing debt is the result of GOP policies, or bipartisan initiatives like the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Hensarling served on President Obama's fiscal commission, headed by Erskine Bowles and Alan Simpson, but ultimately opposed their recommendations, because they included higher revenues.

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2012

Dems Outraged With Dick Lugar For Saying The Economy Isn't That Bad

Benjy Sarlin | August 10, 2011, 12:14PM

Sen. Richard Lugar (R-IN)

In a highly unusual move, Democrats are going after Sen. Dick Lugar (R-IN) for suggesting that the American economy might be in better shape than the recent S&P downgrade indicates -- a key White House talking point.

In an interview with a local TV station criticizing the ratings agency's decision, Lugar told an interviewer: "The American economy is still strong, that we're making progress although it's very slow in terms of job creation, and that we still have a dollar that is the world currency and we are still selling bonds to everybody all over the world despite the S&P downgrade."

Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee spokesman Shripal Shah said in a statement that Lugar's quote was "out of touch with the struggles that so many Hoosier are facing right now."

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2012

Despite Rhetoric, Bachmann Requested Stimulus, EPA Cash For District

Benjy Sarlin | August 10, 2011, 11:16AM

Michele Bachmann

For Michele Bachmann federal cash is absolutely disgusting -- and the portions are so small!

Despite repeatedly decrying the evils of federal spending, records obtained by the Huffington Post show Bachmann repeatedly requested money for her district even from agencies and programs she has vilified in her speeches. They include the stimulus program that she branded "fantasy economics" as well as the Environmental Protection Agency she's said should be renamed the "Job Killing Agency."

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Ames Straw Poll

No Favorites: Huckabee To Join Cain, Santorum, And Pawlenty At Ames

Benjy Sarlin | August 10, 2011, 9:26AM

Mike Huckabee

Not one to play favorites, Mike Huckabee will play bass for not only Herman Cain but Rick Santorum and Tim Pawlenty as well at the Ames Straw Poll this weekend.

The news takes some of the thunder out of Cain's earlier announcement that Huckabee would back him up while he sang gospel himself at the event. The former Arkansas governor won the state handily in 2008 and it was considered his to lose in 2012 if he had decided to run. He has yet to endorse any of the candidates.

Huckabee's daughter, Sarah Huckabee, is a top aide to Pawlenty and tweeted on Wednesday that her father would play bass with the bands Sonicflood and the Nadas, who are performing at Pawlenty's booth. As for his Santorum appearance, the Des Moines Register reports he'll play Buddy Holly's "That'll Be The Day" and "Peggy Sue."

2012

Huntsman's Big Endorsement: Jeb Bush Jr.

Benjy Sarlin | August 10, 2011, 9:17AM

Jeb Bush Jr.

Jon Huntsman is headed to Florida on Wednesday to accept an endorsement from Jeb Bush Jr. - son of the state's popular ex-governor Jeb Bush Sr. and a nephew of President George W. Bush.

Huntsman had teased the Florida visit as a "major announcement," sparking immediate speculation that Governor Bush, who has spoken highly of Huntsman in the past and is one of the party's most highly respected figures nationally, might declare his support. But the junior Bush is an established figure in the state as well and has helped lead efforts to bring Latino voters into the Republican fold.

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Harry Reid

Dems, GOP Demand: If You're Gonna Slash Medicare, Raise Taxes, Can You At Least Do So In Public?!

Brian Beutler | August 10, 2011, 6:00AM

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) appointed three Democrats to a 12-member deficit Super Committee Tuesday, giving observers and advocates an early indication of how the committee will function as it seeks over a trillion dollars in further deficit cuts by the end of the year.

Just as important as who serves on the panel, though, is the question of whether it will function like most Congressional committees do -- open to press and voters, with conflicts of interest disclosed publicly, if not always swiftly or conveniently.

So often, high-stakes negotiations like these are conducted in private, where members feel free from accountability, and, to a lesser extent, from special interest influence. And because the debt ceiling statute that created the panel included no significant transparency requirements, the expectation has been that it will operate away from public scrutiny.

But there is growing pressure on Congressional leaders to pull back the curtain on the panel, including from influential members of their own parties. And now it seems as likely as not that the proceedings will take place in a way that makes it difficult for members to hide deal-making from the public.

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Wisconsin Recalls

Wisconsin GOP Holds On: Dems Take Two Seats In Senate Recalls, Not Magic Three

Eric Kleefeld | August 10, 2011, 12:48AM

Gov. Scott Walker (R-WI)

Post updated: 1:30AM

Wisconsin Democrats have fallen just narrowly short of an ambitious goal - the attempt to pick up three state Senate seats through recall elections and take a majority in the chamber. As of early Wednesday morning, with six incumbent Republicans on the ballot, Democrats have defeated two -- but narrowly missed out in two others.

Democrats defeated Republican state Sen. Dan Kapanke, who represented the most Dem-leaning seat of any Republican in the chamber, by a 55%-45% margin. They also won a 51%-49% victory over state Sen. Randy Hopper, whose campaign was also damaged by a messy divorce, and allegations by his estranged wife that he "now lives mostly in Madison" after having an affair.

This would get Democrats from their previous 19-14 minority, following the 2010 Republican wave, to a 17-16 margin. In two more safe Republican districts, incumbents Robert Cowles and Sheila Harsdorf won by margins of 60%-40% and 58%-42%, respectively.

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Harry Reid

Reid Picks Murray, Kerry, Baucus For Super Committee -- Here's The Upshot

Brian Beutler | August 9, 2011, 6:15PM

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV), Sen. Max Baucus (D-MT) and Sen. Tom Harkin (D-IA)

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) has announced that Sens. John Kerry (D-MA), Patty Murray (D-WA), and Max Baucus (D-MT) will serve a new deficit Super Committee. Murray will be the Democrats' top member.

"I have great faith in Senator Murray as the co-chair of the committee," Reid said in a statement. "Her years of experience on the Senate Budget and Appropriations committees have given her a depth of knowledge on budget issues, and demonstrated her ability to work across party lines. Senators Baucus and Kerry are two of the Senate's most respected and experienced legislators. Their legislative accomplishments are matched only by their records of forging strong bonds with their Republican colleagues."

Entitlement defenders were hoping for a more progressive bunch than this. But the key on the Democratic side of the new committee isn't so much whether members will agree in principle to some entitlement cuts -- most say they will -- it's whether they'll require as a concession that Republicans agree to increase tax revenues.

And through that prism, there's some reason for optimism.

Read more »

Polls

Obama Surges To Lead Against Generic Republican

Benjy Sarlin | August 9, 2011, 5:32PM

Beset by debt ceiling woes, President Obama has been trailing behind a hypothetical "generic Republican" in recent polls. But no longer! The latest from Gallup has him moving into a solid lead.

According to the monthly survey, which was conducted from August 4 -7, Obama would win 45-39 against "the Republican party's candidate." The previous two polls from Gallup had the generic GOPer running strong with a 47-39 lead in July and 44-39 lead in June.

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2012

Mike Huckabee To Jam With Herman Cain At Ames

Benjy Sarlin | August 9, 2011, 5:05PM

Mike Huckabee

Mike Huckabee, who won Iowa in 2008, will join Herman Cain at his Ames Straw Poll booth this weekend to lay down some bass grooves behind Cain's gospel vocals.

While not billed as a formal endorsement, Huckabee's appearance is a major boost to Cain, who has been counting on a strong performance at Ames to rocket him into the top tier of GOP contenders.

"I am honored to have the Governor join me on stage for this historic event," Cain, who like Huckabee is a Baptist minister, said in a statement. "We share many commonalities, including the deepness of our Christian faith and our love of music. I am humbled by his graciousness to share his musical gifts with me and I hope Iowa voters will enjoy the show."

Cain will also appear on Huckabee's FOX show the day after the straw poll.

2012

Tim Pawlenty Polls Behind Thad McCotter in MI

Benjy Sarlin | August 9, 2011, 4:25PM

GOP Presidential Candidate Tim Pawlenty

Tim Pawlenty's numbers haven't looked great anywhere in recent weeks, but the latest from PPP in little-polled Michigan peg him at fringe status, polling last behind candidates like Rep. Thad McCotter (R-MI).

According to PPP, Romney, who won the state in 2008's GOP primaries, currently leads the pack with 24%, followed by Michele Bachmann at 18%. Rick Perry stands at 14%, while Herman Cain and Newt Gingrich have 7% each. Ron Paul has 6%, followed closely by McCotter at 5%. Pawlenty is at a humble 4%.

McCotter is from Michigan so he has some home court advantage. But given the much higher profile campaign from Pawlenty, the results are surprisingly weak. As PPP puts it, "he gets the dubious distinction of being the first serious candidate to poll behind Thad McCotter anywhere."

Federal Reserve

Fed: No Major Action Yet To Improve Sucky Economy

Brian Beutler | August 9, 2011, 2:48PM

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke

Between a stalled recovery in the United States, a major debt crisis in Europe, fallout from the earthquake in Japan, a recent fuel price spike, and gridlock in Washington where legislators have reached consensus in favor of austerity measures, speculation had climbed over the last several days that the Federal Reserve would intervene by buying up a significant amount of assets, injecting money into the economy -- a new round of so-called "Quantitative Easing".

But in a statement after a regular meeting of the Fed's Open Market Committee, the central bank decided to continue its current policies, with the caveat that they might start loosening those policies if things don't improve quickly.

Here's their assessment of the weak state of the economic recovery. "[E]conomic growth so far this year has been considerably slower than the Committee had expected. Indicators suggest a deterioration in overall labor market conditions in recent months, and the unemployment rate has moved up. Household spending has flattened out, investment in nonresidential structures is still weak, and the housing sector remains depressed. However, business investment in equipment and software continues to expand. Temporary factors, including the damping effect of higher food and energy prices on consumer purchasing power and spending as well as supply chain disruptions associated with the tragic events in Japan, appear to account for only some of the recent weakness in economic activity."

But though unemployment remains significantly higher than the Fed's employment mandate requires, they're not really ready to intervene in a major way just yet. "The Committee discussed the range of policy tools available to promote a stronger economic recovery in a context of price stability. It will continue to assess the economic outlook in light of incoming information and is prepared to employ these tools as appropriate."

Full statement below:

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Gary Johnson

GOP Presidential Hopefuls Go To Ames, Gary Johnson Rides a Bike

Michael R. Corjulo | August 9, 2011, 1:47PM

GOP Presidential Candidate Governor Gary Johnson (R-NM)

While seven Republican presidential hopefuls will be competing in the Iowa Straw Poll this Saturday in Ames, candidate Gary Johnson will be in a slightly different kind of race. The former Governor of New Mexico announced Tuesday that he would be spending Saturday competing in a 100 mile-long mountain bike race in Leadville, Colorado.

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Barack Obama

GOP Rep Tells Tea Party Activists He's Open To Impeaching Obama For...Something

Brian Beutler | August 9, 2011, 1:18PM

Rep. Michael Burgess (R-TX)

A House Republican says he wants President Obama impeached -- he's just not sure why! As long as the ensuing gridlock stymies President Obama's agenda, it's the right thing to do.

Pressed by Tea Party activists angry that he voted for the debt limit deal, Rep. Michael Burgess (R-TX) said he wouldn't vote to raise the debt limit again and said he'd be happy to see President Obama impeached for...something.

"It needs to happen, and I agree with you it would tie things up," Burgess said. "No question about that."

Read more »

2011 Elections

Wisconsin Recall Turnout: How High Can It Go?

Eric Kleefeld | August 9, 2011, 1:10PM

So far, so good in the Wisconsin state Senate recalls, which as of midday have, according to reports, been proceeding smoothly.

Reid Magney, spokesman for the state Government Accountability Board, which oversees elections in the state, said that the GAB has not yet received any calls about incidents at any polling places, nor updates about turnout. The overall call volume to the GAB's central office has been only low to medium -- and coming from an interesting source for problems.

"We've had calls from people who want to know where they vote, and it turns out they don't live in one of the Senate districts, so they're unhappy about that," said Magney. "And that's what happens when you've got elections that happen in certain districts, but people in the media markets are seeing ads about it and not realizing who their senator is."

As WisPolitics reports, city clerks in some municipalities say that turnout could be near the level of a presidential election -- though this is not true across the board, with other being closer to the hotly-contested state Supreme Court election this past April.

Read more »

Polls

CNN Poll: Grand Old Party Downgrade

Kyle Leighton | August 9, 2011, 12:58PM

TPM has been reporting for weeks about the effect of the debt debate on individual political leaders and the subsequently low ratings of Congress. But new data from a CNN poll shows that there's been a difference in the minds of many Americans: the Democratic Party is getting a split on approval/disapproval at 47 - 47, but the Republican Party disapproval rating is all the way up to 59%, against a 33% approval.

The GOP approval rating has been going down in the CNN poll since their 2010 victories: in the October 27-30 version, the Republican Party had a small plurality in approval, at 44 - 43. But since last fall's election they've seen a steady downward trend in the survey, to the current low, which is the highest disapproval rating in the CNN poll in the last twenty years.

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Gay Marriage

Vermont Poll: Across Ideology, Most Agree World Didn't End After Gay Marriage Legalization

Kyle Leighton | August 9, 2011, 12:15PM

Proponents of gay marriage scored a huge victory in June when the New York Legislature passed a law legalizing it, advocates celebrated when Gov. Andrew Cuomo signed it, and Mayor Bloomberg marked the occasion by officiating the wedding of two top staffers. In short, the political establishment embraced gay marriage in New York, and now it's a part of life in the state.

In Vermont, it's been part of life since April of 2009. A new survey from Public Policy Polling provides a look into how the law is viewed by Vermont residents, who have clearly accepted it as part of the state's social fabric: 58% say that same sex marriage should be legal.

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Jon Bruning

Nebraska AG Jon Bruning Compares Welfare Recipients To Scavenging Raccoons

Benjy Sarlin | August 9, 2011, 11:28AM

Nebraska Attorney General Jon Bruning, a frontrunner to win the GOP nomination against Sen. Ben Nelson (D-NE), compared poor people to scavenging racoons in a speech this week.

In a video captured by the liberal group, American Bridge 21st Century, Bruning makes the comparison as part of an elaborate metaphor originally focused on environmental regulations. He describes a requirement that workers at a construction project gather up endangered beetles by luring them into a bucket with a dead rat in order to release them elsewhere. But the plan is thwarted when hungry raccoons then eat them straight out of the rat-infested bucket. Which, according to Bruning, is a perfect image to illustrate how welfare recipients receive their benefits.

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Congress

Congress: Does It Matter If Americans Hate It?

Kyle Leighton | August 9, 2011, 10:50AM

House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) and Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-CA)

Last week, the New York Times/CBS News poll put an emphatic point on the acrimonious debt debate by producing a new record: the highest disapproval rating that Congress had ever received in the survey since it began in 1977.

The reasons are pretty obvious: not only did Congress, and specifically the House GOP play chicken with the US credit rating (and actually succeed in drawing a downgrade from one rating agency, S&P), the legislative branch took that chance with an economy still struggling to emerge from a deep recession with the added strife of three current military entanglements abroad. In other words, it was actually hard to make the situation much worse, but Congress did.

The sad distinction now is between the usually low approval ratings of Congress, and historically high disapproval ratings. And behind that distinction is a simple question: does it even matter when it comes to elections?

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Mitt Romney

Romney Irked By Democrats' Prepared Attacks

Benjy Sarlin | August 9, 2011, 10:31AM

President Barack Obama and former Gov. Mitt Romney (R-MA)

Mitt Romney is condemning Democratic strategists for planning an array of attacks on his character in order to bring him down in a general election.

The former Massachusetts governor took particular exception with a quote from an unnamed Democrat in a Politico story on the strategy, who said that "Unless things change and Obama can run on accomplishments, he will have to kill Romney." The person's connection to the White House was left vague, however -- the article merely described them as "aligned" with the re-election campaign.

"It is disgraceful that President Obama's campaign has launched his re-election with the stated goal to 'kill' his opponent with an onslaught of negative and personal attacks," Romney said in a statement. "President Obama will say and do desperate things to hold onto power because he knows he has failed. Neither despicable threats, nor President Obama's billion dollar negative campaign, will put Americans back to work, save their homes, or restore their hopes. On November 6, 2012, this will change."

The article in question listed a number of vulnerabilities Democrats hoped to exploit, most of which have already been raised in the press in recent weeks: Romney's awkwardness on the campaign trail, his reputation for changing positions, and his professional background as a high-powered executive at Bain Capital.

Wisconsin Recalls

The Wisconsin Recalls: Voting Now Underway

Eric Kleefeld | August 9, 2011, 9:51AM

The polls are now open in Wisconsin for the big event: Six recall elections targeting incumbent Republican state senators, in a backlash against Gov. Scott Walker's anti-public employee union law and other budget decisions, with the potential for control of the state Senate to be flipped to the Democrats after just seven months of one-party GOP government.

The polls opened at 7 a.m. CT, and will close at 8 p.m. CT. Under Wisconsin's recall laws, these elections are effectively special elections, with the incumbents each facing a Democratic challenger in a head-to-head race. And given the unusual nature of these races, it is nearly impossible to predict who will win, with everything riding on turnout.

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2012

Rick Perry's Immigration Journey Could Haunt Presidential Race

Benjy Sarlin | August 9, 2011, 6:00AM

Gov. Rick Perry (R-TX)

In August 2001, Governor Rick Perry stopped by Edinburg, Texas, to deliver a speech before a gathering of Mexican and United States officials on issue related to the border. Emphasizing the cultural and economic connections between the two nations, Perry called for new investment in infrastructure and an easing of restrictions on border traffic to further deepen ties. He also took a moment to tout a groundbreaking new law that allowed children of illegal immigrants to receive in-state tuition at Texas universities.

"We must say to every Texas child learning in a Texas classroom, 'we don't care where you come from, but where you are going, and we are going to do everything we can to help you get there.'" he said. "And that vision must include the children of undocumented workers. That's why Texas took the national lead in allowing such deserving young minds to attend a Texas college at a resident rate. Those young minds are a part of a new generation of leaders, the doors of higher education must be open to them. The message is simple: educacion es el futuro, y si se puede."

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Super Committee

Cantor To House GOP: Resist 'Pressure To Compromise On Tax Increases' In Wake Of Downgrade

Brian Beutler | August 8, 2011, 4:42PM

House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-VA)

Will S&P's controversial decision to downgrade the country's bond rating -- and its explicit citation of GOP intransigence on tax revenue -- be enough to break the Republicans' broad opposition to tax increases in future deficit reduction legislation?

Not if House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-VA) can help it.

In a Monday memo to the House GOP caucus, he candidly acknowledged that S&P faulted the party's unyielding stance on tax revenues for the downgrade. But he encourages members not to erase this bright line.

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DCCC

Democrats Look To Turn Paul Ryan Toxic

Benjy Sarlin | August 8, 2011, 4:29PM

Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI)

In a line of attack usually reserved for scandalized politicians, Democratic officials are targeting Republican lawmakers for accepting donations from Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI).

The DCCC are sending out press releases highlighting donations from Ryan's Prosperity PAC to 17 incumbent Republicans who voted for the House Republican budget. The releases include statements going after members for taking a "thank you check."

Democrats have made Ryan's budget, which includes a plan to replace Medicare with a private voucher system, central to their national message in recent months. But the latest effort reflects a broader attempt to turn Ryan himself into a political villain -- the DCCC releases include a poll from June showing him among the least popular Republicans in the country, ahead of only Sarah Palin and Newt Gingrich.

Michele Bachmann

Bachmann: Obama Should Heed/Ignore S&P

Benjy Sarlin | August 8, 2011, 4:00PM

Michele Bachmann simultaneously chided the White House for paying too little and too much attention to Standard and Poor's downgrade of US debt on Monday.

"After a weekend of hiding out at Camp David, pretending that the Standard and Poor's ratings do not matter and hoping the markets wouldn't notice, the President discovered he was wrong on both counts," Bachmann said in a statement. "He came out just long enough today to again declare that raising taxes and cutting Medicare are his only solutions to our nation's economic crisis. He dismissed the downgrade of our country's credit rating, and argued that there's no more room for spending cuts in Washington."

Bachmann's criticisms are contradictory. While she clearly believes Obama is "wrong" to dismiss the downgrade, the ratings agency made it abundantly clear that the president's proposals to fix the problem -- entitlement reform and tax increases -- are exactly what is needed to strengthen America's credit rating.

According to S&P's own downgrade announcement,"We lowered our long-term rating on the U.S. because we believe that the prolonged controversy over raising the statutory debt ceiling and the related fiscal policy debate indicate that further near-term progress containing the growth in public spending, especially on entitlements, or on reaching an agreement on raising revenues is less likely than we previously assumed and will remain a contentious and fitful process."

Perhaps more than any other presidential candidate, Bachmann is on shaky ground tying herself to the S&P, since the agency also cited Republicans' threats not to raise the debt ceiling as a major cause for the downgrade. Bachmann took the position early in the debate that the debt ceiling should never be raised under any circumstances, meaning by S&P's account she contributed to the problem as much as any lawmaker in the country.

Medicare

Obama Sides With Panetta On Need To Cut Medicare Over Defense

Brian Beutler | August 8, 2011, 3:32PM

Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta

Last week, Congressional Democrats were blindsided by newly-confirmed Defense Secretary Leon Panetta, who basically nixed any further cuts to military spending, and demanded that lawmakers trim from programs like Medicare and raise taxes to reduce future deficits.

Soon a new deficit Super Committee will begin debating tax and entitlement reform, and the penalty if they gridlock includes steep defense cuts. Republicans are expected to seize on Panetta's remarks to push for another deficit deal that comes exclusively from entitlement cuts. So Rep. Barney Frank (D-MA) called on President Obama to repudiate Panetta.

Read more »

Rick Perry

Report: Rick Perry To Announce Presidential Run Saturday

Benjy Sarlin | August 8, 2011, 2:55PM

Gov. Rick Perry (R-TX)

The wait is almost over. After weeks of hints and rumors, Texas Governor Rick Perry will reportedly announce a presidential run in South Carolina on Saturday.

According to Politico, the speech at a RedState convention may not mark his formal entrance into the race but will make clear his intentions. He'll head to New Hampshire later the same day for a house party with State Rep. Pamela Tucker. Perry's backers are reportedly trying to secure an early wave of donations in anticipation of his announcement in order to quickly establish his credibility.

The timing of Perry's speech undercuts the Ames Straw Poll, a crucial event for many of the Republican candidates that will occur the same day. With Perry not participating, the results will likely hold less weight and may quickly be overshadowed by coverage of the Texas governor's debut.

Barack Obama

Obama: 'No Matter What Some Agency Says, We Will Always Be AAA'

Susan Crabtree | August 8, 2011, 2:19PM

President Barack Obama (D)

President Obama in a somber address to the nation Monday sought to summon Americans' strength and perseverance as stocks continued in a 500-point free fall in the first trading day after Standard & Poor's rating service downgraded the nation's creditworthiness.

"Markets will always rise and fall," Obama told the nation. "No matter what some agency may say, we've always been and always will be a AAA country."

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Iowa straw poll

Come To Ames -- For The 'Santorum Summer Dance Party'

Eric Kleefeld | August 8, 2011, 2:11PM

Former Sen. Rick Santorum (R-PA)

Oh, Boy!

Rick Santorum is hoping to show Iowans a good time at the Ames Straw Poll: First with Santorum's homemade jelly -- and now, his campaign has announced, with musical entertainment from the late Buddy Holly's backup band the Crickets, plus the Big Bopper Jr.

Back in 1959, the 22-year old Buddy Holly and the 28-year old original Big Bopper, plus 17-year old Ritchie Valens, were killed in a plane crash -- in Iowa, during a Midwestern tour called the "Winter Dance Party."

As such, the name of the Santorum campaign event is the "Santorum Summer Dance Party."

"After three weeks of traveling across Iowa and meeting thousands of Iowans, we are excited to cap off our family trip with a day of fun in Ames," said Santorum in a press release. "We are all looking forward to eating, singing, and dancing along with the traditions that make summertime in Iowa the epitomizes the heart of the American experience."

Wisconsin Recalls

Polls: Wisconsin State Senate Recalls Down To The Wire

Eric Kleefeld | August 8, 2011, 1:19PM

Updated at 3 p.m. ET.

A new round of Daily Kos/Public Policy Polling (D) numbers for the Wisconsin recalls, conducted over the past weekend in four out of the six Republican-held seats on the ballot Tuesday, show these contests headed down to the wire. Democrats have a clear lead in one race, Republicans in another, and the other two in statistical dead heats.

However, there is a very important caveat to any polls of these races: There is simply no standard statistical model or frame of reference for these very unusual mass recalls. As such, no prediction is really safe, and election-watchers just have to wait until the votes are counted Tuesday night. Everything will ride on the parties' turnout operations.

In the 32nd district, Democratic challenger Jennifer Shilling leads GOP state Sen. Dan Kapanke by 54%-43%, beyond the ±3.4% margin of error. Meanwhile in the 10 district, GOP state Sen. Sheila Harsdorf leads Democrat Shelly Moore by 54%-42%, outside the 2.7% margin of error.

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Mitt Romney

Romney: 'No Controversy' In Bain Exec's $1 Million Donation

Benjy Sarlin | August 8, 2011, 12:49PM

GOP Presidential Candidate Mitt Romney

That $1 million donation routed through a mysterious corporation to a Super PAC devoted to electing Mitt Romney? No big deal, Romney told reporters in New Hampshire on Monday.

"I think he came out and discussed who he is," Romney said of the donor, who revealed himself to be former Bain Capital executive Ed Conard last week. He added that there's therefore "no controversy because he said, 'Hey, it's me, and I've given to Mitt many times before.'"

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Treasury

CHART OF THE DAY: S&P's $2 Trillion Error Explained

Brian Beutler | August 8, 2011, 12:20PM

President Barack Obama and Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner

In the weeks leading up to last week's debt limit deal, the ratings agency Standard & Poors warned that they would downgrade the country's AAA bond rating if the White House and Congressional leaders couldn't reach a fiscal consolidation plan of at least $4 trillion over 10 years.

The Congressional Budget Office scored the deal they ultimately reached at just over $2 trillion and S&P, perhaps feeling locked into its threat, made good on it.

The implication, to borrow from the Vice President, is that $2 trillion worth of deficit spending over ten years is a BFD.

But as Treasury Department officials, including Secretary Tim Geithner, have been angrily pointing out since Friday night, S&P's original analytical justification for the downgrade included a $2 trillion error, exaggerating U.S. deficits over the same 10 year window.

Geithner himself said, "[t]hey've shown a stunning lack of knowledge about basic U.S. fiscal budget math. And I think they drew exactly the wrong conclusion from this budget agreement."

Most reports have simply alluded to the error without explaining it. But here, according to Treasury officials, is what actually happened.

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Darrell Issa

Issa: NLRB Has Until Friday To Hand Over Docs In Boeing Case

Susan Crabtree | August 8, 2011, 12:04PM

Rep. Darrell Issa (R-CA), the GOP's No. 1 Obama administration attack dog, has bitten down hard on the dispute between the National Labor Relations Board and Boeing and doesn't appear to be letting go anytime soon.

Issa issued a subpoena to the NLRB's Acting General Counsel Lafe Solomon August 7 as part of its investigation into the merits of the NLRB action against the Boeing Company. The subpoena compels the NLRB to comply with earlier document requests submitted in May with a deadline of noon Aug. 12.

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Gay Marriage

Michele Bachmann Attends Anti-Gay Sermon in Iowa

August 8, 2011, 11:49AM

Michele Bachmann spoke at a church service in Iowa on Sunday that featured a separate sermon about "immoral" gays as well as a video presentation promoting gay conversion therapy.

"We inherently know that homosexual behavior is immoral and unnatural," Pastor Jeff Mullen told churchgoers during a half-hour presentation, according to NBC. Afterward he played a recorded testimonial from a man who claimed to have been cured of his homosexual urges through the power of prayer and is now married with an expecting wife "I am so happy God has given me natural affection for a woman," he says in the video.

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Polls

Gallup: Obama Approval Rating Improving In Crucial States

Kyle Leighton | August 8, 2011, 11:45AM

President Obama has seen some hits to his national approval rating over the last few weeks as residue from the bruising debt debate, although Congress is even worse off since the almost-default. But new data from Gallup released on Monday shows a much more coherent and specific picture of Obama's job approval as he ramps up his 2012 election campaign, and how his approval rating looks when set against the modern electoral map.

The data, taken from Gallup's polling from January 2011 to June of this year, charts the president's rating in all 50 states, using interviews with more than 90,000 American adults. While his national approval rating for this time period in the Gallup tracking poll is below 50%, the map shows an improving picture after the GOP victories of 2010, and much of that improvement in swing states.

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Wisconsin Recalls

Fitzgerald: Wisconsin Recalls Have Become A 'Referendum' (VIDEO)

Eric Kleefeld | August 8, 2011, 11:40AM

Wisconsin state Senate Majority Leader Scott Fitzgerald (R)

Wisconsin state Senate Majority Leader Scott Fitzgerald (R) appeared Monday morning on Fox News, ahead of Tuesday's recall elections targeting six GOP state Senators -- and cast the contest as a referendum on Gov. Scott Walker's policies rolling back collective bargaining for public employees, and whether other states would follow the same path.

Fox host Bill Hemmer asked whether Democrats, if successful in gaining control of the chamber, would be able to reverse the state's budget policies targeting public employee unions and their ability to collectively bargain.

"No, I mean, the Republican Assembly remains in place, as well as obviously Governor Walker," said Fitzgerald. "But I think, you know, what this has become is more of a referendum on whether or not what happened in Wisconsin in February and in March should be the way the state moves forward.

"We have a balanced budget, we certainly have had great success in eliminating the deficit, of which many other states throughout the nation are facing right now. And the unions are trying to send a signal that if they can recall this Republican state Senate, then this was the wrong direction for us.

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Michele Bachmann

Michele Bachmann's Radical Reading List

Benjy Sarlin | August 8, 2011, 11:14AM

Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN)

Ryan Lizza's New Yorker piece on Michele Bachmann, which focuses on the Tea Party candidate's influences, is the current talk of the political world. The article delves deep into Bachmann's ideological roots, showcasing a number of books and films by her favorite far-right Christian thinkers. Here are a few of the highlights from Bachmann's reading list.

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Wisconsin Recalls

This Week: The Moment Of Truth For The Wisconsin State Senate Recalls

Eric Kleefeld | August 8, 2011, 6:00AM

This is a big week in Wisconsin -- the culmination of months of protests, campaigning, legislative battling and litigation, since Republican Gov. Scott Walker began an ultimately successful push to strip public employee unions of their collective bargaining rights. On Tuesday, voters will head to polls in six state Senate recalls, where Republican incumbents are all facing stiff Democratic challenges, with the possibility that Dems could flip control of the chamber and end one-party GOP rule after just seven months. And the vote will be closely watched nationally, read as a referendum on the wider anti-union push that other GOP governors have also undertaken.

The state Senate currently has a 19-14 Republican majority, with Democrats needing to gain at least a net three seats to gain control on the senate. (And even this would not be the end of it -- they hope to recall Walker some time next year.) All in all, this is the closest this country's system of government can get to a snap parliamentary election, with control of the chamber up for grabs.

Back in July, Democratic state Sen. Dave Hansen easily won re-election in his recall race against a very flawed GOP challenger, after the party's originally recruited candidate failed to collect enough valid petition signatures to get onto the ballot. Next week, two Democratic incumbents will be on the ballot in their own recalls, so even if Democrats pick up as many as four seats Tuesday, it would not be known for certain whether they have gained the chamber until after another week.

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Chart Of The Day

Chart Of The Day: The Tax Drop In America

Kyle Leighton | August 8, 2011, 6:00AM

The chart below shows the percentage of adjusted gross income (AGI) that different income groups of Americans pay in federal income tax. We chose the top categories ($500,000 to $1,000,000, and over $1,000,000) and matched them up with the some middle class numbers ($30,000 to $40,000, and $50,000 to $60,000). The data in these sets comes from IRS Publication 1304.

As you can see, there are two major points: one, the overall percentage both groups pay in federal income taxes has fallen over the last twenty years or so, and two, when Congress makes a major income tax policy change, it affects the top earners much more than other groups.

Adjusted gross income is defined as income minus adjustments, meaning after deductions. Of course in addition to federal income taxes there are employee contributions to Social Security, which are usually 6.2% of earnings (but are 4.2% in 2011 because of the payroll tax deduction) up to $106,800, which subsequently has a greater effect on the income below that limit than above. There's also Medicare withholding, which is 1.45% of earnings, and since both are set rates, they by nature have greater effect the less you earn.

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Herman Cain

Cain't Win: Herman Cain Takes Weeklong Beating From Conservatives After Apologizing To Muslims

Evan McMorris-Santoro | August 8, 2011, 5:55AM

GOP presidential candidate Herman Cain

How important is warning about encroaching sharia to the modern conservative electorate? Judging by attacks Tea Party favorite Herman Cain has suffered since reaching out to American Muslims, pretty darn important.

Since shifting gears from his role as the campaign's pied-piper of sharia to the guy who may actually preach at a mosque someday soon, Cain has suffered the slings and arrows of his supporters and prominent voices on the anti-sharia right. He's also been lauded by some supporters, but it seems clear that, in aggregate, the new more tolerant Cain has not gone over well.

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John Kerry

Kerry Slams 'Tea Party Downgrade'

Igor Bobic | August 7, 2011, 11:27AM

Sen. John Kerry (D-MA)

Senator John Kerry (D-MA), appearing on NBC's "Meet the Press" on Sunday, blamed Republicans and in particular Tea Party intransigence for the unprecedented S&P downgrade of U.S. credit from AAA to AA+.

"I believe this is without question the Tea Party downgrade," he said. "This is the Tea Party downgrade because a minority of people in the House of Representatives countered the will of even many of Republicans in the United States Senate who were prepared to do a bigger deal."

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