President Obama’s national approval rating has never been lower, and it’s starting to drag him down in head-to-head matchups against his potential GOP rivals in the 2012 election. Gallup polled the President against former Mass. Gov. Mitt Romney, Tex. Gov. Rick Perry, Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN), and Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX). Each trial heat produced a statistical tie among registered voters.
By the numbers, Obama is only bested by Romney, 48 percent to 46. He ties Perry at 47 percent, and outpolls Paul 47 - 45 and Bachmann 48 - 44. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus four percent, meaning that in each case, the race is a dead heat.
Recent polling has shown a very tight race amongst the President and the aforementioned candidates. Over the last months various national polls have shown Obama with single digit leads over the major contenders. The exception is Paul, who has never showed much strength against Obama in a national matchup, but is within two points in the Gallup survey. Head to head polling at this point suggests as much, if not more, about the President’s relative weakness, than it does anything about the strength of his potential rivals.
The TPM Poll Averages show a slim 0.1 percent lead for the President in a matchup with Romney, a 1.9 point advantage against Perry, and a 5.5 spread against Bachmann.
The new Gallup survey used live telephone interviews with 879 registered voters.
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Kyle Leighton
Kyle is the Poll Editor at TPM. He graduated from Beloit College (WI) and began working in politics before getting an M.A. in magazine journalism from New York University, where he interned at TPM and the website of The New Yorker.
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