As TPM reported Tuesday morning, Rep. Michele Bachmann’s (R-MN) time as a legitimate contender for the GOP presidential nomination could be up, as a new survey from Public Policy Polling (D) shows her the third choice of Republican voters in Iowa, a state essential to her campaign. The new horserace with the full announced GOP field shows Tex. Gov. Rick Perry at the top with 22 percent, former Mass. Gov. Mitt Romney at 19 percent, Bachmann at 18, and Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX) at 16 percent.
There’s no way around it — Bachmann’s popularity has taken a huge hit over the last two months, as shown by the PPP numbers. In June, Bachmann enjoyed a favorable/unfavorable rating of 53 - 16. That statistic is now 47 - 35, still positive, but not particularly high considering these are GOP voters. Perry, on the other hand, has gone from relatively unknown (a 21 - 16 favorability rating in June, majority undecided) to well liked, with a 56 - 24 rating. Paul has increased his favorability rating by 11 points over that time, and Romney has dropped slightly over the last two months.
In a three way race between Bachmann, Perry and Romney, the Minnesota Rep. comes in third again, at 24 percent, behind Perry at 34 and Romney at 28. This adheres to other evidence that Bachmann is sinking within the field, as last week saw the release of a Rasmussen national survey of GOP voters, in which Perry charged to the top at 29 percent and Bachmann was relegated to third at 13.
Beyond the GOP presidential race, the poll showed some interesting facets of the GOP base in Iowa. PPP asked two simple questions: “Do you believe in global warming or not?” and ” Do you believe in evolution or not?” Global warming was only believed by 21 percent of respondents, against 66 percent, who do not. Evolution was believed by 35 percent of those polled, versus 48 percent. Only a near majority, 48 percent, think that President Obama was born in the US.
It seems that Perry, who called both man-made global warming and evolution into question during his first week of campaigning, has found some likeminded voters in Iowa.
The new PPP poll used automatic telephone interviews conducted from August 21st to the 19th, with 317 regular GOP primary voters, and has a margin of error of plus or minus 5.5 percent.
Kyle Leighton
Kyle is the Poll Editor at TPM. He graduated from Beloit College (WI) and began working in politics before getting an M.A. in magazine journalism from New York University, where he interned at TPM and the website of The New Yorker.
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