
On Monday, the Tax Policy Center published an analysis of Newt Gingrich's plan to overhaul the tax code -- the latest in a series of of analyses of GOP presidential candidate tax proposals. And like all the plans that came before it, Gingrich's constitutes a massive tax cut for the rich. Indeed, no matter how you stack the numbers, Gingrich wants a tax system that permanently holds tax rates on the highest earners lower than tax rates on the middle class.
There are a lot of ways to parse the data. Gingrich proposes creating an alternative tax system that would significantly flatten the code, while keeping the current one in place as an option. So you can run the numbers assuming everybody jumps into the new system, or you can run them assuming that the only people who hop into the new system are people who would benefit financially as a result. And you can compare Gingrich's plan to current tax policy -- including the Bush tax cuts and other temporary tax policy -- or you can compare it to current law, which assumes all of these policies will expire in the next year, and go up on just about everyone.
To be as fair as possible, let's take Gingrich at his word that he would extend the Bush tax cuts for those staying in the current system, and that the only people who would opt into the new system are those who would pay lower taxes as a result.
Here's what happens to people's average federal tax burden as a result.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)We've been reporting on the shortcomings of Herman Cain's 9-9-9 tax plan since before it was cool. The plan wipes out the current code and creates, in effect, a nine percent flat income tax, a nine percent value added tax, and (somewhat redundantly) a nine percent national sales tax. Even generous assumptions suggest it would leave the government short of the revenue it will need to fund key government services and programs like Medicare and Social Security. And, by dramatically lowering income taxes, and replacing them with taxes that hit consumers, it's regressive.
But we didn't know just how regressive until now.
As Herman Cain has climbed in the polls, lawmakers and other GOP presidential candidates have had to contend more seriously with his ideas. One of the main attacks his opponents have leveled against his 9-9-9 tax plan is that it won't fly in Congress.
True story. Today's GOP leaders aren't willing to embrace the plan, which would wipe out the current tax code and replace it with a nine percent tax on individual income, a nine percent tax on corporate income, and a nine percent sales tax.
As noted here, here, and here, the plan has a lot of problems. It's deeply regressive. As businesses passed on the cost of their share of the tax to consumers, it would hit low and middle income earners exceptionally hard at a time when the economy desperately needs more, not less, consumption. And part of it's probably unconstitutional, at least as Cain envisions it.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Herman Cain's flagship 9-9-9 policy is perhaps the most memorable slogan of GOP primary season. Cain proposes to wipe out the existing tax code and replace it with a 9 percent individual income tax, a 9 percent corporate tax rate, and a 9 percent national sales tax. No more loopholes, no more deductions, no more exclusions, no more capital gains taxes, no more payroll taxes no more...Social Security or Medicare?
The 9-9-9 plan actually says nothing about Medicare. But numerous analyses conclude swapping out the current tax code for 9-9-9 would leave the Treasury significantly short of the insufficient revenues it currently collects. Cain has no interest in raising those rates. And that means barring unfathomable economic growth, 9-9-9 would yield enormous budget shortfalls and eventually require the government to offload popular programs like Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security.
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