2010 elections

Races To Watch Tomorrow: It's Not Just The Big Senate Primaries

Eric Kleefeld | May 17, 2010, 12:29PM

PA-12 House candidates Mark Critz (D) and Tim Burns (R)

All eyes are on the big Senate primaries tomorrow in Arkansas, Kentucky And Pennsylvania -- but there are some other races going on, too, which could have important repercussions for the fall.

One of the top races to watch will be the special election for the Johnstown-area district formerly held by the late Rep. John Murtha, who passed away in February. The TPM Poll Average gives Republican businessman Tim Burns an edge of 43.0%-42.4% over Democratic candidate and former Murtha aide Mark Critz. A key X-factor in the race is that Democratic turnout could be disproportionately high in this swing district, because the election is being held at the same time as the regular statewide primaries. There are far more contested Democratic primaries than Republican ones -- most notably the Senate race between incumbent Sen. Arlen Specter and Rep. Joe Sestak -- and this could disproportionately drive Dem voters to the polls.

Murtha was first elected in a 1974 special election, picking it up from the Republicans in the middle of the Watergate scandals, and held the seat for 36 years until his death in February 2010. The district voted for John McCain in 2008 by a margin of less than one point -- the only district in the country to switch from John Kerry in 2004 to McCain in 2008, having voted for Kerry 51%-48% in 2004. CQ, Stuart Rothenberg, Charlie Cook and Larry Sabato all rate this race as a toss-up.

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Vic Snyder

Arkansas Dem Rep. Vic Snyder Retiring

Eric Kleefeld | January 15, 2010, 5:33PM

Rep. Vic Snyder (D-AR)

Rep. Vic Snyder (D-AR) has announced that he is retiring from the House.

This could very well be a tough one for Democrats to hold on to. Snyder was first elected in 1996, and has not had a tough re-election fight since his initial 52%-48% win, but his district has swung significantly to the Republicans underneath him. It voted 54%-44% for John McCain in 2008, and 51%-48% for George W. Bush before that -- part of the Southern belt of districts that went against the national trend, swinging further Republican in 2008.

A SurveyUSA/Firedoglake poll released yesterday showed Snyder losing re-election to Republican candidate Tim Griffin, who had a brief and controversial tenure as a U.S. Attorney in 2007 during the U.S. Attorney firing scandal.

Tim Griffin

Poll: GOPer Tim Griffin Has Big Lead In Congressional Race

Eric Kleefeld | January 15, 2010, 9:26AM

Rep. Vic Snyder (D-AR) and former U.S. Atty. Tim Griffin (R)

A new SurveyUSA/Firedoglake poll of the Arkansas Second Congressional district finds that Tim Griffin -- a "star" of the U.S. Attorney scandal in 2007 -- is a frontrunner to get elected to Congress this year against a Democratic incumbent.

The numbers: Griffin 56%, Democratic Rep. Vic Snyder 39%. This district voted 54%-44% for John McCain in 2008, and the new poll gives President Obama a 33% approval rating, with 63% disapproval. The poll also finds heavy opposition to the proposed individual mandate, which would require everyone to carry health insurance.

Griffin briefly served as a U.S. Attorney, after having had an extensive career as a Republican political operative specializing in opposition research. He was appointed in December 2006, in such a manner as to circumvent the need for Senate confirmation due to a March 2006 revision to the PATRIOT Act. He resigned in June 2007.

AR-02

Poll: Dem Congressman Vic Snyder In Dead Heat With GOPer Tim Griffin

Eric Kleefeld | November 16, 2009, 9:47AM

Rep. Vic Snyder (D-AR) and former U.S. Atty. Tim Griffin (R)

A new survey in Arkansas by Public Policy Polling (D) finds Democratic Rep. Vic Snyder in a dead heat with Republican challenger Tim Griffin -- a "star" of the U.S. Attorney scandal in 2007.

The numbers: Snyder 44%, Griffin 43%, within the ±4.9% margin of error. Against the other GOP candidates, Snyder leads Army veteran and Republican activist David Meeks by 45%-42%, and is ahead of restaurateur Scott Wallace by 44%-42%.

The Republican candidates are essentially unknowns, but Snyder's job approval is only 42%, with a 46% plurality disapproval. In addition, President Obama's approval rating in the district is only 41%-52%.

Tim Griffin

Tim Griffin Running For Congress

Eric Kleefeld | September 21, 2009, 3:25PM

Rep. Vic Snyder (D-AR) and former U.S. Atty. Tim Griffin (R)

Former U.S. Attorney Tim Griffin, a central figure in the 2007 U.S. Attorney firings, is now running for Congress against Rep. Vic Snyder (D-AR).

"The people of Central Arkansas deserve a congressman who shares their values and represents their views," Griffin told the Politico. The incumbent Snyder has not had a close race since his initial 52%-48% win in 1996, and has been easily re-elected ever since. On the other hand, the district voted 54%-44% for John McCain in 2008, and Snyder could possibly be vulnerable to a strong challenger.

Griffin had a previous career in the 1990's working on Republican legal investigations of prominent Democrats, and worked in opposition research for the Bush campaigns in 2000 and 2004, and was a protégé of Karl Rove. In September 2006 he became a special assistant to the U.S. Attorney in Arkansas, and was then appointed to replace his fired predecessor in December 2006, at the urging of Rove. Griffin was never confirmed by the Senate -- his appointment was done in such a way as to circumvent the confirmation process -- and he resigned in June 2007 in the wake of the controversy.

Late Update: A fun video that TPM produced in 2007, explaining who Tim Griffin was during the U.S. Attorney scandal, is available after the jump.

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