AR-SEN

HCAN: Health Care Swing States Want An Up-Or-Down Vote On Reform

Brian Beutler | November 20, 2009, 9:13AM

Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-LA), Sen. Ben Nelson (D-NE)

Congressional procedure can be confusing even for politicos, but the reform campaign Health Care for America Now has boiled it down. The group has distributed polling data to its largest member organizations indicating that voters in key swing states believe health care shouldn't be stymied by procedural supermajority requirements in the Senate.

The polls were taken in Nebraska, Louisiana, and Arkansas, home of reform skeptics Ben Nelson, Mary Landrieu, and Blanche Lincoln, don't believe their senators should kill reform by voting with Republicans to block either a debate or a vote on the bill.

"In the Senate, before a bill can be voted on, there must be a vote to allow it to be debated," reads the first survey question. "Regardless of whether you support or oppose the health insurance reform plan itself, do you believe that it should be debated on the floor of the Senate?"

In all states, voters overwhelmingly said the Senate health care reform bill should be debated on the floor. Nebraska: 88-9, Louisiana: 82-9, Arkansas: 84-11.

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Blanche Lincoln

Poll: Blanche Lincoln Could Lose In 2010 If She Supports Health Care Bill

Eric Kleefeld | November 19, 2009, 5:11PM

Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR)

A new Zogby poll suggests that Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) could seriously endanger her 2010 re-election by supporting the health care bill.

In initial match-ups, Lincoln leads state Sen. Gilbert Baker by 41%-39%, within the ±4.5% margin of error, and has a healthier lead of 45%-29% over state Sen. Kim Hendren.

In a series of follow-up questions, respondents were then asked how they would feel if Lincoln supported the bill. In a new match-up with Baker, Lincoln's previous edge of 41%-39% turns into a Baker lead of 49%-37%.

Health Care

Sen. Blanche Lincoln Meeting With Obama

Christina Bellantoni | November 2, 2009, 10:21PM

Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR)

The White House says President Obama will meet privately with Sen. Blanche Lincoln Tuesday night.

Obama and Lincoln (D-AR) will huddle in the Oval Office at 5:15, less than two hours before polls close in the critical elections in New Jersey, New York and Virginia.

Lincoln is perhaps the most embattled Democrat in the Senate, and she's been getting political pressure from both sides as she declines to tip her hand on health care.

She is one of several moderates who have had the president's ear lately - Sen. Evan Bayh (D-IN), Sen. Jim Webb (D-VA) and Sen. Mark Warner (D-VA) also have visited the White House recently.

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Blanche Lincoln

Poll: Arkansas Voters Disagree With Lincoln's Public Option Skepticism

Brian Beutler | October 30, 2009, 10:29AM

Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR)

The trend continues: a new Research 2000 poll, commissioned by the Progressive Change Campaign Committee and Democracy for America, finds that a Democrat from a red state may not be doing herself any favors by standing in the way of a public option.

The poll asked Arkansans "Would you favor or oppose the government offering everyone a government administered health insurance plan -- something like the Medicare coverage that people 65 and older get -- that would compete with private health insurance plans?"

The findings are in line with other statewide and national polls that find the public option to be broadly popular. 56 favor, 37 oppose.

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Health Care

Sen. Lincoln Hammered With Questions On Public Option During Online Chat

Christina Bellantoni | October 19, 2009, 10:38AM

Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR)

Public option supporters bombarded Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) with questions last night about why she doesn't back a public option in the health care fight, with one constituent fretting about losing her seat to a Republican.

"We are terribly disappointed that you have caved in to the insurance industry and failed to support the public option for health care. It may very well affect our vote for you in the next election," Ray and Judy told her on the chat, which is posted online.

"Unfortunately the insurance companies opposed the bill I supported in the Finance Committee. There are many ways to provide greater options and choices to individuals, including non-profits, a state plan, and a co-op plan," Lincoln wrote back.

But that wasn't the last word. Lincoln got six more questions along the same lines.

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AR-SEN

Poll: Blanche Lincoln Trails Republican Challengers

Eric Kleefeld | September 29, 2009, 6:11PM

Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR)

A new Rasmussen poll has some bad news for Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR), who is up for re-election in 2010: She's trailing all four of her Republican challengers in a state that has been trending more to the GOP.

Republican state Sen. Kim Hendren leads Lincoln by 44%-41%. State Senate Minority Leader Gilbert Baker is ahead of her by 47%-39%. Businessman Curtis Coleman edges her out by 43%-41%. And finally, businessman Tom Cox leads her by 43%-40%.

In a further bad sign, Lincoln's favorable rating is only 45%, with 52% unfavorable. The Republican candidates are all hardly known, with undecided numbers of 34%-40% for their own personal ratings -- meaning this is basically Lincoln against generic Republicans. And for now at least, she's losing.

Blanche Lincoln

Harkin Getting HELP Chairmanship, Lincoln Taking Agriculture

Eric Kleefeld | September 9, 2009, 2:30PM

Sen. Tom Harkin (D-IA) and Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR)

Sen. Tom Harkin (D-IA) will reportedly be taking over the chairmanship of the Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee -- which was vacated by the death of Ted Kennedy -- after Sen. Chris Dodd (D-CT) declined to take the post.

This was a widely-expected move after Dodd turned down the position, as Harkin was next in line in seniority.

Another key development here in the committee shuffle is that Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) will take over Harkin's chairmanship of the Agriculture Committee -- which could potentially give her a real boost as she goes into a tough re-election fight in 2010. Lincoln would be better positioned to argue that she can advocate for her rural state's interest.

On the other hand, Lincoln's move to the Agriculture gavel could also be bad news for climate change legislation.

AR-SEN

Poll: Dem Sen. Blanche Lincoln Vulnerable

Eric Kleefeld | August 26, 2009, 2:23PM

Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR)

A new survey of Arkansas from Public Policy Polling (D) finds that Sen. Blanche Lincoln, a key centrist Democrat, could be in serious danger going into 2010 -- with her running in dead heats with three essentially unknown Republicans.

The numbers: State Senate Minority Leader Gilbert Baker edges out Lincoln by 42%-40%; businessman Curtis Coleman leads her by 41%-40%; and Lincoln edges Afghanistan War veteran Tom Cotton by 40%-39%. All of these results are within the ±3.5% margin of error.

In addition, none of the Republicans have favorable ratings in the double digits, and the percentage of respondents who have no opinion is about 80% in all cases. So this is essentially Lincoln against generic Republicans.

From the pollster's analysis: "You couldn't get a clearer indication that the national momentum is with Republicans right now than a poll showing some guys with single digit name recognition running even with an incumbent Senator."

AR-SEN

Poll: More Arkansans Trust Limbaugh Than Obama

Eric Kleefeld | August 25, 2009, 11:54AM

How much chance does health care reform have in Arkansas if Arkansans trust Rush Limbaugh more than Barack Obama?

The new survey of Arkansas from Public Policy Polling (D) finds the state to be very conservative, very Birtherist, and very much opposed to President Obama on health care -- despite the fact that the state's Democrats are typically dominant and hold all major offices right now.

Only 40% approve of President Obama's job performance, with 56% disapproving -- matching up pretty closely with John McCain's 59%-39% victory here in 2008. In addition, only 45% say Obama was born in the United States, with a strong 31% saying he was not, and 24% unsure. Among Republicans in Arkansas, the Birther question comes up as 23%-49%-28%.

On health care, only 29% support Obama's plan, with 60% against it. In addition, respondents were asked whether Rush Limbaugh or Barack Obama has the better vision for America: Limbaugh 55%, Obama 45%. And keep in mind that this is a state where Dems have both Senate seats and three out of four House members

Statistics like this can have a real impact on politics. From the pollster's analysis: "These numbers, taken together, show why Blanche Lincoln's Senate seat is becoming an enticing target for Republicans in spite of their candidate recruitment issues," said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. "There are few states that have an electorate more conservative than Arkansas' and if the GOP can effectively nationalize the race it'll be close."