AR-SEN

Poll: Dem Lincoln Behind By 14 In AR-SEN Race

Marc Kilstein | September 22, 2010, 4:39PM

Sen. Blance Lincoln (D-AR) and Rep. John Boozman (R-AR)

A newly released Reuters/Ipsos poll of the Arkansas Senate race finds Republican nominee John Boozman out in front of Democratic Senator Blanche Lincoln 53%-39%.

Recent polls of the race have not been kind to the incumbent Senator-- a TalkBusiness poll from September 16 had the Democrat trailing 56%-29% and Mason-Dixon's September 14 poll saw her behind Boozman by 17 points, 51%-34%. The TPM Poll Average says it all-- Boozman is ahead 57.9%-34.4%.

The margin of error for the latest survey is ±4.7 percentage points.

For more on the race, check out TPMDC's full coverage here.

AR-SEN

Mason-Dixon Poll: GOPer Boozman Still Up Big On Dem Lincoln In AR-SEN

Marc Kilstein | September 16, 2010, 1:58PM

Sen. Blance Lincoln (D-AR) and Rep. John Boozman (R-AR)

Mason-Dixon is out with the first mainstream Arkansas Senate poll in several weeks, and things are still looking bad for Democratic Sen. Blanche Lincoln. Republican nominee John Boozman finds himself way out in front, topping Lincoln 51%-34%, with independent Trevor Drown taking in 3% and Green Party candidate John Gray pulling in 1%.

This poll, commissioned by the Arkansas News Bureau/Stephen Media, is the first Mason-Dixon poll conducted since June, when the hypothetical Boozman-Lincoln matchup yielded a 52%-35% lead for the Republican. The lone August survey on the race was a Rasmussen poll that favored Boozman by a dominant 65%-27% margin. Boozman's commanding lead in the polls has not wavered in recent months.

The margin of error for the latest poll is ±4.0 percentage points. The TPM Poll Average finds Boozman crusing in the contest, up 60.3%-31.2%.

For more on the race, check out TPMDC's full coverage here.

2010 elections

It Ain't Pretty: Senate Dems Struggle To Hold 59 Seats (CHARTS)

Christina Bellantoni | September 7, 2010, 12:35PM

Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV)

Just how bad is it out there? Consider the TPM charts below showing the poll averages from each of the elections for Senate seats currently held by Democrats. Not a single Democrat in a contested race sits above 50 percent. Worse yet, many of them are outright losing to Republicans.

Election Day is still weeks off, and anything, and we mean anything, can happen to change these numbers on a dime. And it's important to remember that there are so many more factors to consider than just polls, which, as we've proven again and again, can be wrong. Many of these Democratic incumbents have mountains of cash in the bank and President Obama has continued to be a massive fundraising strength for Democratic senators despite his unpopularity nationally. Plus, some of these Dems are up against barely-ready-for-prime-time Republicans with extreme views, and those numbers seem like they could waver.

But if every TPM Poll Average culled from our PollTracker and seen below were to hold on through Nov. 2, Democrats would lose at least five seats, and possibly as many as eight.

Read more »

AR-SEN

How Blanche Lincoln Fell So, So Far Behind In Arkansas

Eric Kleefeld | September 7, 2010, 8:45AM

Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR)

As we head into the true crunch time of the 2010 election, the crucial period between Labor Day and November 2, let's take a look at what might just be the steepest uphill climb for Democrats this fall: Holding on to the Arkansas Senate seat held by incumbent Dem Blanche Lincoln.

Just take a look at the TPM Poll Average to see how much ground Lincoln would have to make up to score a victory in November. The Republican nominee, Rep. John Boozman, is ahead of Lincoln by a whopping 60.3%-31.2%.

Read more »

2010 elections

Bill Clinton Heading Out On Campaign Trail For Democratic Candidates

Christina Bellantoni | September 2, 2010, 8:05AM

Former President Bill Clinton

Fire up the Bubba-is-more-popular-than-Obama meme machine! Former President Bill Clinton has announced three political events for southern candidates, and a spokesman hints there are more to come.

Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) was the first on Wednesday to announce Clinton would join her in his native Arkansas to "celebrate my first year as Chairman of the Senate Agriculture Committee." Clinton helped Lincoln boost enthusiasm during her competitive Democratic primary against Lt. Gov. Bill Halter. She prevailed in a run-off, thanks in part to a Clinton rally. But she's now badly trailing Rep. John Boozman (R-AR) for the general election.

Read more »

AR-SEN

Lincoln Goes Up With First Ads Of The General Election (VIDEO)

Evan McMorris-Santoro | August 20, 2010, 2:15PM

Sen. Blanche Lambert Lincoln (D-AR)

Trailing badly in the polls, Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) is hoping to improve her fortunes with some fear of a coming push to privatize social security, and with some straight talk about her health care vote.

The TPM Poll Average shows the Republican nominee, Rep. John Boozman, leading the race 60.3-31.2. In her new spots, Lincoln tells voters that a vote for the Republican will be a vote to end social security as we know it -- and a vote for the 23-cent federal sales tax favored by so-called "fair tax" advocates.

Lincoln also refers to her tough primary fight with Lt. Gov. Bill Halter, which saw millions of dollars in union and netroots money pour into Arkansas, fueled by progressive anger over her opposition to card check and a public option in the health care reform bill.

Read more »

AR-SEN

Rasmussen Poll: GOPer Boozman Up 38 On Dem Lincoln In AR-SEN Race

Marc Kilstein | August 20, 2010, 11:21AM

Sen. Blance Lincoln (D-AR) and Rep. John Boozman (R-AR)

A new Rasmussen poll shows Republican nominee John Boozman way, way out in front of Democratic Sen. Blanche Lincoln in the Arkansas Senate race.

The latest survey finds Boozman with a huge lead in the contest, 65%-27%. This is an even larger lead than Rasmussen's July 20 poll of the race, which showed Boozman on top 60%-35%. The Republican has established himself as the clear favorite in the race, maintaining a large lead over his Democratic opponent in recent months' polls.

The TPM Poll Average shows Boozman cruising, leading Lincoln 60.3%-31.2%. The margin of error for the latest poll is ±4.5 percentage points.

For more on the race, check out TPMDC's full coverage here.

Cordoba House

No Love For Cordoba House In Arkansas Senate Race

Evan McMorris-Santoro | August 18, 2010, 3:23PM

Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR)

Both nominees for Senate in Arkansas have made it clear they're not interested in signing onto the planned Islamic cultural center near Ground Zero in lower Manhattan.

Republican nominee John Boozman is especially clear on his disdain for the concept of the so-called "Ground Zero mosque." In a post to his campaign blog this week, Boozman dinged President Obama's speech on the Cordoba House as "unfortunate, albeit not entirely unexpected," and further evidence that the White House is "completely out-of-touch with the American people."

As for the project itself, Boozman could hardly have been stronger in his condemnation of the Cordoba House.

"Put simply, the construction of the Ground Zero mosque is an insensitive, aggressive political statement whose principle purpose is to irritate the public and stoke controversy," he wrote. "Instead of acknowledging this reality, the President bought the activists' plea for religious expression hook-line-and-sinker and caved to the winds of political correctness in support of the building."

So Boozman's no fan. But neither is the Democratic nominee, Sen. Blanche Lincoln.

Read more »

AR-SEN

Rasmussen Poll: GOP's Boozman Increases Lead Over Blanche Lincoln

Thomas Rhiel | July 23, 2010, 2:09PM

Sen. Blance Lincoln (D-AR) and Rep. John Boozman (R-AR)

Things aren't looking up for Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR). The latest Rasmussen poll of the Arkansas Senate race shows the GOP's John Boozman crushing Lincoln 60%-35%.

These latest numbers are in line with a Talk Business poll released Monday, which showed Boozman ahead 57%-32%. And they're slightly worse for Lincoln than Rasmussen numbers from July 18, which had Boozman at 54% and Lincoln at 35%.

The TPM Poll Average for the Arksansas Senate race puts Boozman in the lead 57.1%-33.3%. The margin of error for the latest Rasmussen poll is ±4.5 percentage points.

AR-SEN

Bill Halter At Netroots: Blanche Lincoln Can Win (VIDEO)

Christina Bellantoni | July 23, 2010, 1:28PM

Arkansas Lieutenant Gov. Bill Halter (D)

Las Vegas -- Lt. Gov. Bill Halter said in an interview that his one-time primary rival embattled Democratic Sen. Blanche Lincoln can win reelection this fall, and believes she can frame it as a "classic" Republican v. Democrat race on the Arkansas ballot.

Can she win? "Yes, I think yes," Halter told TPM in an interview Thursday afternoon from the Rio Casino's Starbucks. Of course, he also believes he would have won the primary if he'd had more time. "Winning a primary against an incumbent senator is one of the hardest things to do in American politics," Halter said.

"Obviously it's a difficult year and everybody knows what the current polls show," Halter said. "I don't think there's any question that it's a tough year."

Read more »

AR-SEN

Blanche Lincoln To Doubters: It's Not That Bad, I'm Only Down By Nine

Evan McMorris-Santoro | July 20, 2010, 11:13AM

Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR)

You know it's hard out there for an incumbent Senator when she has to stave off bad news by releasing an internal poll showing her down by nine to her Republican challenger. But that's exactly what Sen. Blanche Lincon (D-AR) has done, attempting to respond to yesterday's poll showing her down by 25 points to Rep. John Boozman (R) with numbers of her own showing her losing by a lot -- but not as much.

According to Lincoln's numbers, Boozman leads the race 45-36 with 18% undecided. A third party candidate draws 6% of the vote. The survey of 700 voters was conducted June 22-24 and has a margin of error of 3.7%.

The poll was first reported on the Tolbert Report, an Arkansas political blog that questioned what Lincoln would do in the face of a string of polls showing her reelection prospects in bad shape.

Read more »

AR-SEN

Poll: GOPer Boozman Leads Blanche Lincoln By 25 Points

Eric Kleefeld | July 19, 2010, 3:21PM

Sen. Blance Lincoln (D-AR) and Rep. John Boozman (R-AR)

Yet another poll has bad news for Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR), with the incumbent seriously trailing her Republican opponent Rep. John Boozman.

The new poll, commissioned by Arkansas-based Talk Business and conducted by Zata 3, gives Boozman 57% to Lincoln's 32%, followed by independent Trevor Drown at 3% and the Green Party's John Gray at 2%. The survey of likely voters has a ±3.7% margin of error. The TPM Poll Average gives Boozman a lead of 50.3%-35.1% in a two-way matchup.

From the pollster's analysis: "First, Boozman has a strong lead in this race if for no other reason but for the anti-incumbent, anti-Lincoln sentiment that exists in the state's current political landscape...Lincoln's fundraising advantage - $1.9 million to Boozman's $484,000 - is a good step for her to make this race more competitive, but she will also have to find ways to define Boozman negatively, something we've seen signs of in recent weeks."

AR-SEN

Blanche Lincoln Has $1.9 Million In The Bank

Evan McMorris-Santoro | July 15, 2010, 12:29PM

Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR)

Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR), having survived an expensive primary fight in June, is rebuilding her campaign war chest for her general election battle with Rep. John Boozman (R). According to reports filed by her campaign yesterday, Lincoln had $1.9 million cash on hand as of June 30, and raised $2.7 million during the second quarter, which began April 1 and included the hotly-contested May 18 Democratic primary and June 8 runoff with Lt. Gov. Bill Halter.

Boozman, who won his party's nomination in the May 18 primary, has not yet released his fundraising numbers according to a report in the Arkansas News.

Read more »

Blanche Lincoln

Lincoln Protects Wal-Mart Family Bank From Wall Street Reform

Brian Beutler | June 23, 2010, 1:01PM

Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR)

Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) is here to serve Arkansas...or at least its wealthiest residents.

While she finalizes new rules on derivative trading, which have been well received by pro-Wall Street reformers, she's undertaking separate efforts to protect a major Arkansas bank from a different part of the financial reform bill.

According to the Wall Street Journal, Lincoln is hoping to make one of the bill's provisions apply only to banks with $15 billion in assets, thus exempting Arvest Bank Group, largely owned by the same Walton family that founded Wal-Mart.

Read more »

Blanche Lincoln

Lincoln: I Was Not The Deciding Vote On Health Care Reform

Brian Beutler | June 11, 2010, 1:15PM

Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR)

Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) may have hoped she'd put the primary behind her, but it will continue to haunt her for weeks to come. Now that she's running full-time in the general election against Rep. John Boozman, Lincoln is once again shoring up her right flank, tiptoeing away from the rhetoric she used to defeat Arkansas Lt. Gov. Bill Halter. The results are...awkward.

For instance, in an interview with the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette, Lincoln tried to dispel the notion that she cast the deciding vote for health care reform, which remains unpopular in Arkansas.

"I wasn't the deciding vote," Lincoln said. "I was among a handful of five Democrats that worked on getting consensus."

There's some truth to that. But where did the Democrat-Gazette get the notion that Lincoln tipped health care into the Democrats' win column? From Blanche Lincoln, who in the below ad said, " I grew up in an Arkansas family where we were taught to solve problems, not through hate and anger, but by coming together and getting something done. That's why I cast the deciding vote to pass health care reform."

Read more »

2010 elections

Labor Balks: White House Jabs Won't Deter Movement

Christina Bellantoni | June 10, 2010, 8:38AM

Union officials bruised by Lt. Gov. Bill Halter's loss in Arkansas were beyond irritated when the White House took an anonymous swipe at the labor movement for trying to unseat his Democratic rival, Sen. Blanche Lincoln. But the punchline is that they say they're more determined now -- even if it means the Democrats lose the House this fall.

An unnamed White House official called Politico's Ben Smith to criticize labor's involvement in the Democratic primary, saying they'd "flushed $10 million" on a "pointless exercise."

"If even half that total had been well-targeted and applied in key House races across this country, that could have made a real difference in November," the official told Politico. That's right in line with what national Democrats were telling me right after Halter kept Lincoln to under 50 percent in the May 18 primary, forcing the runoff which she won last night.

Read more »

AR-SEN

Progressives On AR SEN: Every Cloud Has A Silver Lining

Evan McMorris-Santoro | June 9, 2010, 5:15PM

Arkansas Lieutenant Gov. Bill Halter (D)

National progressives are attempting to pick themselves up, and brush themselves off and move on with their lives after last night's win by Sen. Blanche Lincoln in the Arkansas Democratic Senate runoff. In an email to its members sent out this afternoon, the Progressive Change Campaign Committee told liberals to cheer up -- at least, the PCCC said, the left still has Washington, D.C. to kick around.

"Today in news reports, the political insiders are gloating. They're proud that they beat thousands of people fighting for change," the PCCC's leaders write. "But what the political establishment doesn't realize is that the progressive movement built power in this election."

Read more »

2010 elections

Super Duper Tuesday's Top Three Super Surprises

Rachel Slajda | June 9, 2010, 11:54AM

Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR), US Sen candidate Alvin Greene (D-SC), Rep. Bob Inglis (R-SC)

Last night's elections lacked any Dewey/Truman moments, but there were enough surprises to make it interesting.

Lincoln Defeats Halter
Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) survived to fight the final round in the general election last night. But it wasn't supposed to be that way. For days -- in fact in the final hours of her runoff -- Arkansas insiders expected Lincoln to lose, while supporters of Bill Halter were pre-emptively dancing in the end zones. Lincoln's obituary was written. But both camps underestimated her ability to get out the vote, and she defeated Halter 52 to 48.

Read more »

AR-SEN

Lincoln Fends Off Primary Challenge, Heads To Tough Reelection Fight

Christina Bellantoni | June 8, 2010, 11:02PM

Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AK)

Sen. Blanche Lincoln fended off a tough Democratic primary challenge tonight, besting progressive opponent Lt. Gov. Bill Halter in a runoff election marked by a high level of voter discontent with Washington. But this race was just the beginning for the embattled Lincoln, who in November will face Rep. John Boozman (R-AR), a former Razorback player with a conservative record.

Lincoln earned 51 percent to Halter's 49 percent with 77 of precincts reporting as the Associated Press called the race for the incumbent senator, a conservative Democrat who sometimes frustrates her party's leaders.

In a victory speech tonight, Lincoln thanked her supporters, saying they'd sent a message that's "loud and clear, and that message was that the vote of this senator is not for sale." She said she had stood up to special interests. "We are head to November with this message," Lincoln said.

Read more »

AR-SEN

Smooth Sailing At The Ballot Box For Blanche Lincoln This Time

Evan McMorris-Santoro | June 8, 2010, 3:40PM

Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR)

You may recall that the last time Sen. Blanche Lincoln faced Lt. Gov. Bill Halter in an Arkansas Democratic primary vote, things did not go so well -- instead of the classic shot of the candidate casting her ballot, cameras caught Lincoln being forced to fill out a provisional ballot because the polling place said she had voted already. She had requested an absentee ballot but not filled it out, causing a bit of a campaign fail for the incumbent Senator under attack from the left for being more concerned about Washington than Arkansas.

Today, the story was different. Lincoln campaign spokesperson Katie Laning Niebaum told me that Lincoln voted in person with no trouble in her home precint at around 12:30 Arkansas time.

"It was a regular ballot," Niebaum told me.

Read more »

AR-SEN

PCCC Releases Online Anti-Lincoln Ad Featuring 'Pauline'

Rachel Slajda | June 8, 2010, 9:37AM

Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR)

The Progressive Change Campaign Committee has launched a last-ditch web ad against Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) ahead of her primary today against Lieutenant Gov. Bill Halter. The ad features a PCCC member from Arkansas named Pauline Wildman, who also stars in a Halter TV ad accusing Lincoln of wanting to cut Social Security.

The ad (below) links to the Halter video spot.

"Without Social Security, I'd be out on the street," Wildman says in the TV ad.

Read more »

AR-SEN

Down To The Wire: All Eyes On AR-Sen As Lincoln Faces Potential Ouster

Christina Bellantoni | June 8, 2010, 8:52AM

AR Democratic Senate candidates Bill Halter and Blanche Lincoln

Today's Arkansas Democratic primary runoff has the potential to create two very different storylines -- will a conservaDem become the third U.S. senator to lose her seat this election cycle? Or will she weather the challenge but remain vulnerable this fall?

Sen. Blanche Lincoln failed to reach a 50 percent threshold in the May 18 primary, and Lt. Gov. Bill Halter has gained traction as the progressive favorite. The race has captured the attention of the national media -- with most of the runoff's headlines coming from Washington outlets instead of back home -- but both candidates are pushing hard to keep up enthusiasm among voters they need to show up at the polls for round two.

Most people on the ground think it's going to be close, given the Lincoln, 45 - Halter, 43 split during the primary. But even some Lincoln supporters have told me they fear it's Halter with the momentum.

Read more »

2010 elections

A Primary Primer: A Guide To Tuesday's Big Races

Eric Kleefeld | June 7, 2010, 1:32PM

A woman votes on November 7, 2006

Tomorrow is a veritable "Super Tuesday" of primaries in this non-presidential election year, with a whole host of top-tier primaries going on across the country. A total of 11 states are holding primaries: Arkansas, California, Iowa, Maine, Montana, Nevada, New Jersey, North Dakota, South Carolina, South Dakota and Virginia.

So let's take a look at some of the most notable races.

AR-SEN (D): One of the biggest races tomorrow is the Democratic Senate primary runoff between incumbent Sen. Blanche Lincoln and Lt. Gov. Bill Halter. Lincoln has been aggressively targeted for defeat by organized labor and liberal activists, due to her opposition to the public option during the health care debates. (She did vote for the final bill that was signed into law, and which did not include a public option.) The TPM Poll Average gives Halter a lead of 49.7%-44.9%, but there is also an important caveat: Research 2000 has been the only pollster to publicly release numbers on this race during the runoff period, so we are dependent on only one source of data.

Read more »

AR-SEN

Blanche's Moment Of Truth: Arkansas Runoff Will Be 'Very Close'

Christina Bellantoni | June 4, 2010, 6:40PM

AR Sen. candidates Blanche Lincoln (D) and Bill Halter (D)

It's down to the final stretch for Sen. Blanche Lincoln and Lt. Gov. Bill Halter, who each are predicting a victory in Tuesday's Democratic primary runoff election. But of course, only one Arkansas candidate can prevail, and incumbents aren't doing so well this season.

Lincoln and Halter are criss-crossing the state in hopes of enticing voters who were almost evenly divided between the two during the May 18 primary that they should head to the polls a second time in the election that really counts. Team Halter spun his 43 percent second place finish to her 45 percent as a victory since the incumbent senator wasn't able to hold more than 50 percent of the vote to avoid a runoff.

It's tough to know if the three polls taken since the election -- all conducted by the same pollster -- showing Halter in the lead are accurate, but progressives and union activists who support Halter say the momentum is on his side. Political consultants not willing to speak on the record think Halter has a shot, but hedge their bets since Lincoln has a strong early voting program that could put her over the top.

Read more »

AR-SEN

Poll: Halter Up By Four In AR-SEN Dem Runoff

Eric Kleefeld | June 4, 2010, 1:48PM

Arkansas Lt. Governor Bill Halter (D)

The new Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll of the Arkansas Senate Democratic primary runoff gives Lt. Gov. Bill Halter a four-point lead over incumbent Sen. Blanche Lincoln, heading into the big showdown this Tuesday, June 8.

The numbers: Halter 49%, Lincoln 45%. The poll of likely Dem primary voters has a ±4% margin of error. The TPM Poll Average gives Halter a lead of 49.7%-44.9%. However, there is a huge caveat: Research 2000 has been the only pollster to publicly release numbers on this race during the runoff period, so we are dependent on only one source of data.

Daily Kos's Jed Lewison writes: "With the run-off coming up this Tuesday (June 8) and voting preferences pretty much settled, it seems like the biggest question is whether Halter or Lincoln will have a better turnout operation. Much of that depends on the enthusiasm of each candidate's supporters, and if Joe Sestak's campaign in Pennsylvania is any indication, Bill Halter is in pretty good shape -- as long as his supporters demonstrate their enthusiasm at the ballot box."

AR-SEN

Bill Clinton In Blanche Lincoln Ad: Unions 'Using You And Manipulating Your Votes' (VIDEO)

Eric Kleefeld | June 4, 2010, 9:31AM

Former President Bill Clinton and Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR)

Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) has a new ad featuring former President Bill Clinton, her state's former governor and favorite son, attacking the national labor unions for going after her in the contested Democratic primary runoff.

The ad uses footage of Bill at a rally for Lincoln last week. Bill is shown pointing out a newspaper article to the audience. "Here is an article from the Washington Post, it says some national unions made a decision a few months ago that they wanted to make Senator Blanche Lincoln the quote 'poster child' for what happens when a Democrat crosses them," Bill says, then adding after a quick cut: "This is about using you and manipulating your votes...If you want to be Arkansas's advocate, vote for somebody who will fight for you. Vote for Blanche Lincoln."

Read more »

AR-SEN

SEIU Releases Final Anti-Lincoln Ad In AR-SEN (VIDEO)

Eric Lach | June 2, 2010, 1:01PM

An image from an SEIU ad targeting Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR)

The SEIU has been a big part of Big Labor's big push against Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) in the Arkansas Senate Democratic primary race. With the runoff days away, the group has released a final ad attacking Lincoln's record and supporting her opponent, Bill Halter.

Read more »

AR-SEN

Anti-Lincoln Ad Attacks 'Big Oil Blanche' (VIDEO)

Eric Lach | June 2, 2010, 10:38AM

New ad attacking Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) on campaign contributions from oil and gas interests.

An environmental group has released an ad painting Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) as an ally of Big Oil, and features liberal scourges George W. Bush, Dick Cheney and BP.

Read more »

Blanche Lincoln

Biden Sends Fundraising E-Mail For Blanche Lincoln

Jillian Rayfield | June 2, 2010, 10:26AM

Vice President Joe Biden

Vice President Joe Biden sent out a fundraising e-mail for Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) today, saying "Lincoln always does what is right for Arkansas" and that she is the state's "strongest advocate."

Read more »

AR-SEN

Blanche Lincoln Getting Out The Early Vote

Eric Kleefeld | June 1, 2010, 5:35PM

Sen. Blanche Lambert Lincoln (D-AR)

The campaign of Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) is actively getting out the early vote, which opened today, in the home stretch of the June 8 Democratic Senate primary runoff against Lt. Gov. Bill Halter.

A cell phone text message sent by Lincoln's campaign to her supporter list said: "Early voting has begun! Find your early voting location, take a friend and go vote for Blanche Lincoln! http://bit.ly/ARvote Forward this message to 5 friends!"

This represents a key lesson from the 2008 election, when the Obama campaign vigorously began getting out the vote right from when the early-vote periods opened in different states, banking leads over John McCain in key states that he was unable to overcome when November 4 came around. In a state with liberalized absentee and early-voting laws, "Election Day" truly begins with early voting, and with the polls closing on a particular Tuesday evening down the road.

The TPM Poll Average currently gives Halter a lead of 47.3%-44.7%

Bill Halter

Halter Releases New Ad: 'The Only Choice For Change' (VIDEOS)

Jillian Rayfield | June 1, 2010, 1:25PM

Arkansas Lt. Governor Bill Halter (D)

Bill Halter (D), who is campaigning in the Democratic primary runoff against Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D) for her Arkansas Senate seat, released two new TV ads today that tout Halter as "the only choice for change."

Read more »

AR-SEN

SEIU Ad Attacks Lincoln For Wall Street Bailout (VIDEO)

Eric Kleefeld | June 1, 2010, 12:11PM

Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR)

The politically powerful union SEIU has a new ad attacking Sen. Blanche Lincoln in the June 8 Arkansas Democratic primary runoff, going after Lincoln's vote for the TARP bailout.

"Blanche Lincoln claims she's standing firm against Wall Street. But Lincoln voted to use our tax dollars to bail out Wall Street banks," the announcer says. This is a clear effort to discredit Lincoln's current work on financial reform, and to leverage the TARP issue that already helped to unseat Sen. Bob Bennett (R-UT) at his state GOP convention.

The TPM Poll Average currently gives Lt. Gov. Bill Halter a lead of 47.3%-44.7%.

Read more »

AR-SEN

Bill Clinton Records Radio Ad for Blanche Lincoln (AUDIO)

Eric Kleefeld | June 1, 2010, 11:47AM

Former President Bill Clinton and Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR)

Former President Bill Clinton stars in a new radio ad for Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR), who is in a heated Democratic primary runoff against Lt. Gov. Bill Halter in Clinton's native state of Arkansas.

"We've never had a Chairman of the Senate Agriculture Committee before, and we shouldn't give it up now," says Clinton. "In Washington everybody was betting Wall Street would beat her efforts to clean up trading practices that led our country to the brink of economic collapse, but they were wrong, she won that fight. And, when President Obama needed her help on health care reform she stood with him to secure health coverage and better and more affordable care. She took a lot of heat for that vote, but you and I know she did the right thing."

Read more »

AR-SEN

New Lincoln Ads: 'I Won't Back Down To The Washington Unions' (VIDEO)

Eric Kleefeld | June 1, 2010, 11:21AM

Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR)

Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR), who is in a heated Democratic primary runoff for June 8 with the more liberal Lt. Gov. Bill Halter, has a new pair of TV and radio ads for the home stretch of the campaign -- proudly declaring her independence from the labor unions that have backed her opponent.

"I'm Blanche Lincoln, and I know you're angry at Washington. Believe me, I heard you on May 18. I'm even being attacked for where my family lives," Lincoln says in the TV ad, referring to the first-round primary in which she came in first place with 45%, but with less than the 50% needed to win. She is also apparently referring to the Halter campaign's gloating over Lincoln's initial trouble voting in the primary, after she had sent away for an absentee ballot and had not mailed it back. "But I won't back down to the Washington unions or the Wall Street banks that don't care about Arkansas."

Read more »

AR-SEN

Lincoln And Halter Launch 'Countdown' Campaign Tours

Eric Kleefeld | June 1, 2010, 9:15AM

Arkansas Lt. Governor Bill Halter (D) and Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR)

Today is a big day in the home stretch of the Arkansas Democratic Senate primary runoff, which ends June 8. Early voting begins today, with the first votes set to be cast in this barn-burner contest. And incumbent Sen. Blanche Lincoln and Lt. Gov. Bill Halter are hitting the trail hard today.

Lincoln's tour tomorrow is called the "Countdown to Victory," and will involve stops in Little Rock, Pine Bluff, Star City, Monticello, Hamburg, Warren and Lake Village, in events that are officially billed as "early vote meet-ups." Take this as a sign that the Lincoln campaign has learned a key lesson that the Obama campaign and the political world at large discovered in 2008 -- that "Election Day" really begins on the first day of early voting, and get-out-the-vote efforts should be going in full force from there on.

Read more »

AR-SEN

Progressives Launch Ad Campaign Saying Halter's Just Like Bill Clinton

Christina Bellantoni | May 28, 2010, 10:34AM

Online ad funded by the Progressive Change Campaign Committee

Lt. Gov. Bill Halter's supporters have a message for Arkansas Democrats Sen. Blanche Lincoln is attempting to woo with a visit from Bubba this afternoon: Halter is a lot like Bill Clinton! Progressive Change Campaign Committee is paying for online ads today linked to the Lincoln-Clinton rally in Little Rock.

You can see the ad, obtained by TPMDC, to the left. A PCCC official said the goal is to highlight Arkansas voters "who once found Bill Clinton an inspiring rising star and now feel that way about Bill Halter." The online ad campaign links to a page featuring quotes from Arkansans, like Greg Starting who said Clinton "gave us hope for change then" and Halter "gives us hope for much needed change now." Or a Fayetteville resident who says Halter is "this generation's Bill Clinton."

The TPM Poll Average of this race has Halter leading 47.3 to 44.7 percent, with him jumping into the lead for the first time yesterday. The PCCC ad campaign is another example of how both sides are playing for keeps as the June 8 Democratic primary runoff approaches. The positive spin is a different strategy from the AFL-CIO, also backing Halter, which is attempting to target Clinton for NAFTA in advance of the visit. The union accuses Lincoln and Clinton of sending Arkansas jobs to Mexico and Canada, calling them the "Dynamic NAFTA Duo." We asked Clinton aides for a comment and will update if we hear back.

AR-SEN

Pro-Halter Labor Group Targets Seniors With Social Security Mailer

Christina Bellantoni | May 27, 2010, 4:34PM

US Senate candidate Bill Halter (D-AR) mailer.

Pro-Bill Halter labor groups who want to see Sen. Blanche Lincoln unseated are targeting senior citizens with a new mailer in advance of the Democratic primary runoff June 8.

"Sixteen years in Washington have changed Senator Blanche Lincoln. She's forgotten how tough times are for retirees," reads the mailer, obtained by TPMDC. It will be sent to 20,000 Arkansas homes and was paid for by the Alliance for Retired Americans, a seniors group affiliated with the AFL-CIO.

The mailer cites six Lincoln votes to increase Social Security taxes in 1993, 1994, 1998 and 2000, and for a budget that would have cut benefits. It boosts Halter, the lieutenant governor, by noting his tenure running the Social Security Administration under President Clinton. "Bill Halter will fight to protect Medicare and strengthen Social Security," the mailer claims, asking people to vote June 8.

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AR-SEN

Halter Outraises Lincoln But Lacks The Cash

Christina Bellantoni | May 27, 2010, 3:13PM

Arkansas Lieutenant Gov. Bill Halter (D)

Arkansas Lt. Gov. Bill Halter outraised Sen. Blanche Lincoln in the most recent fundraising period as they battle for the Democratic primary runoff, but started the second phase of the election with far less in the bank than the incumbent senator.

Halter raised more than $777,000 to Lincoln's just over $552,000. But while she has $2 million in the bank, he had $494,549 according to the Federal Election Commission paperwork the campaign filed today covering April 29 through May 19. The primary election, which had Lincoln at 45 percent, Halter at 43 percent and a conservative Democrat earning 13 percent, was held May 18. That means these most recent figures don't reveal much about whether Halter received a boost from forcing a runoff. Team Halter portrayed today's figures as Lincoln being in "dire trouble," touting a new poll showing him leading the senator by 3 points. They also noted that nearly half of her fundraising haul came from political action committees, while his money came from individuals with an average contribution of less than $40.

After today's poll, the TPM Poll Average for the first time has Halter leading Lincoln 47.3%-44.7%. As I reported earlier this week, it's gotten nastier between the two Democrats in the final two weeks.

AR-SEN

Poll: Halter Leads Lincoln By Three Points

Eric Kleefeld | May 27, 2010, 2:07PM

Arkansas Lt. Governor Bill Halter (D) and Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR)

The new Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll of the Arkansas Democratic Senate primary runoff shows incumbent Sen. Blanche Lincoln narrowly trailing her more liberal challenger, Lt. Gov. Bill Halter.

The numbers: Halter 47%, Lincoln 44%. The survey of likely voters has a 5% margin of error. A previous overnight snap poll that Research 2000 did for Democracy For America, conducted the night of the May 18 first-round primary, gave Halter an edge of 48%-46%.

The TPM Poll Average shows Halter ahead by 47.3%-44.7%.

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