AR-SEN

Poll: Dem Lincoln Behind By 14 In AR-SEN Race

Marc Kilstein | September 22, 2010, 4:39PM

Sen. Blance Lincoln (D-AR) and Rep. John Boozman (R-AR)

A newly released Reuters/Ipsos poll of the Arkansas Senate race finds Republican nominee John Boozman out in front of Democratic Senator Blanche Lincoln 53%-39%.

Recent polls of the race have not been kind to the incumbent Senator-- a TalkBusiness poll from September 16 had the Democrat trailing 56%-29% and Mason-Dixon's September 14 poll saw her behind Boozman by 17 points, 51%-34%. The TPM Poll Average says it all-- Boozman is ahead 57.9%-34.4%.

The margin of error for the latest survey is ±4.7 percentage points.

For more on the race, check out TPMDC's full coverage here.

AR-SEN

Mason-Dixon Poll: GOPer Boozman Still Up Big On Dem Lincoln In AR-SEN

Marc Kilstein | September 16, 2010, 1:58PM

Sen. Blance Lincoln (D-AR) and Rep. John Boozman (R-AR)

Mason-Dixon is out with the first mainstream Arkansas Senate poll in several weeks, and things are still looking bad for Democratic Sen. Blanche Lincoln. Republican nominee John Boozman finds himself way out in front, topping Lincoln 51%-34%, with independent Trevor Drown taking in 3% and Green Party candidate John Gray pulling in 1%.

This poll, commissioned by the Arkansas News Bureau/Stephen Media, is the first Mason-Dixon poll conducted since June, when the hypothetical Boozman-Lincoln matchup yielded a 52%-35% lead for the Republican. The lone August survey on the race was a Rasmussen poll that favored Boozman by a dominant 65%-27% margin. Boozman's commanding lead in the polls has not wavered in recent months.

The margin of error for the latest poll is ±4.0 percentage points. The TPM Poll Average finds Boozman crusing in the contest, up 60.3%-31.2%.

For more on the race, check out TPMDC's full coverage here.

2010 elections

It Ain't Pretty: Senate Dems Struggle To Hold 59 Seats (CHARTS)

Christina Bellantoni | September 7, 2010, 12:35PM

Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV)

Just how bad is it out there? Consider the TPM charts below showing the poll averages from each of the elections for Senate seats currently held by Democrats. Not a single Democrat in a contested race sits above 50 percent. Worse yet, many of them are outright losing to Republicans.

Election Day is still weeks off, and anything, and we mean anything, can happen to change these numbers on a dime. And it's important to remember that there are so many more factors to consider than just polls, which, as we've proven again and again, can be wrong. Many of these Democratic incumbents have mountains of cash in the bank and President Obama has continued to be a massive fundraising strength for Democratic senators despite his unpopularity nationally. Plus, some of these Dems are up against barely-ready-for-prime-time Republicans with extreme views, and those numbers seem like they could waver.

But if every TPM Poll Average culled from our PollTracker and seen below were to hold on through Nov. 2, Democrats would lose at least five seats, and possibly as many as eight.

Read more »

AR-SEN

How Blanche Lincoln Fell So, So Far Behind In Arkansas

Eric Kleefeld | September 7, 2010, 8:45AM

Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR)

As we head into the true crunch time of the 2010 election, the crucial period between Labor Day and November 2, let's take a look at what might just be the steepest uphill climb for Democrats this fall: Holding on to the Arkansas Senate seat held by incumbent Dem Blanche Lincoln.

Just take a look at the TPM Poll Average to see how much ground Lincoln would have to make up to score a victory in November. The Republican nominee, Rep. John Boozman, is ahead of Lincoln by a whopping 60.3%-31.2%.

Read more »

2010 elections

Bill Clinton Heading Out On Campaign Trail For Democratic Candidates

Christina Bellantoni | September 2, 2010, 8:05AM

Former President Bill Clinton

Fire up the Bubba-is-more-popular-than-Obama meme machine! Former President Bill Clinton has announced three political events for southern candidates, and a spokesman hints there are more to come.

Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) was the first on Wednesday to announce Clinton would join her in his native Arkansas to "celebrate my first year as Chairman of the Senate Agriculture Committee." Clinton helped Lincoln boost enthusiasm during her competitive Democratic primary against Lt. Gov. Bill Halter. She prevailed in a run-off, thanks in part to a Clinton rally. But she's now badly trailing Rep. John Boozman (R-AR) for the general election.

Read more »